¶ Live Betting and Sports Betting Tools
They are okay with you doing it once or twice or three times , and then they'll limit you . So it seems like they're okay with that line . I don't know how much further that would go .
All right , hey everybody , welcome in to a new episode of the risk takers podcast . We have with us Brock from odds polls , aka sports betting guy on Twitter , a original live , our master , who's going to help walk us through this new live , our craze , where you know he's been in the space for a while and is , you know , quite , quite experience .
So happy to have you on , brock . Thanks for joining us .
Yeah , happy to be here . Thanks for having me , and I don't know that I call myself a master of live or but but yeah , I've been doing it for like a like a year now and made a lot of money off of it , so I think that's all people really want someone who knows what they're doing , is made some money and can teach them how to do it .
Can't call that a master . How did you get you know ? Live are obviously now it's like On Twitter everything I see is live , our being and . But you've been doing it for a year . How did you get into it ? How did you get into betting like what you know ? Why are you so early to this ?
Yeah , the progression I think was fairly natural , very strangely natural . I'd never done any sports betting . But then I just saw a draftings commercial , like maybe September , october last year , and they were just saying , like new user , sign up something like a thousand dollars free bet . And I botched redeeming this because I didn't realize you lose it .
It's a free bet . They give it to you , yeah , instead of Just like the money back . So I bought that and I was like very upset because felt like I'd been cheated by them . I made pretty strong commitment to get them back and Love it .
It's like Batman's origin story draftings killed your parents you .
Yeah , that's how I view it , but it's the progression into live arm . Is , I mean , you're able to get it back long before live ? Like like right away , like after you lose the thousand dollars and redeem the free bet horribly ? They'll sort of like think , okay , he doesn't know what he's doing , let's keep giving him these .
So , like right after that , you sort of learn how they're , how to redeem them for like a good value , and like you get into their VIP program , they just continually give you money and it's very nice . Well then you're like this isn't enough , we need to get them harder .
And like I sort of just became obsessed with watching these lines without any kind of like tooling , just like , right , I didn't know like the tooling existed that was out there , but was sort of just like watching the points that line live in the bathtub . I was just like chilling , what's going on ?
Like how are they able to move this line like in a good , very quick enough way that the betters can't just compare ? These two guys have my phone . I was chilling in the bath looking at the draftings and points , that's lines , and I was like these are like massive arms . Okay , you , obviously they can't do it .
And then you make like , make like 10 bets on points bet that are relatively , relatively large , and then you get limited 10 is a lot . Well , I just been like bonus , bonus , grinding on and they were pretty much fine .
It seemed like they do like a weird thing where , like they do like whatever it is the power hour , well , or they'll give like every day , they'll give you like One dollar , same being probably free bet . All you do is like grind the promos . They increase that amount .
Interesting . Yeah , wow , I wonder why they do that .
They do this for like , for like probably a month and like by the time the World Cup was going on last year , my free bets every day were like $50 , like very , very reasonable .
And you were just doing the promos .
Just doing the promos . Now , luckily I was like hedging draftings , vip promos , yeah , so so they were presumably getting some good action . I see , I see , I see Okay , yeah . And then , yeah , after you hit a few points by a few times , you're like limited and you're like , oh no , like didn't even know , this was like a real thing .
And then I was like , ok , we got to , we got to test this out on all the books , see , see what's out there . So then , from like probably January of this year , I just set up and this is what I think everyone should have live .
Our thing is is like two , three , four , five monitors and like one book on each screen plus how many tools you want to have . We have a tool at odds pulse , that tracks the live arts and sort of just like , just be like sort of tap trading , day trading , these , these moves whenever they go into arbitrage . So then I got the the odd jam live arts tool .
I personally thought it was like very slow , not very usable , but but I think it's , it's good for like whenever you have those beginning accounts , yeah , you can just like current through those .
And then I tried another couple of services and like I obviously had complaints about them because I was , for some reason , just hell bent on killing DraftKings and not just this point , but like getting as much out of this edge as I could .
And so I was like , ok , I want these books to be supported , and like these books aren't fast enough and like the service is down now . And I was like I love your service . Right , I'm like my own . Because because every day I was pretty much going to work and I would be like , look , this is this crazy thing that happened sports betting yesterday .
And like my co-workers would be like , oh , that is very interesting . And then one of them , a lot of them earned sports betting . Then this way , yeah , made this tool with me , my , my partner , and so we made this tool also . Now , I viewed it as I was . I viewed it as like I'm just trying that as good as I can live .
Now , the other tools that I was using were sort of like you're not allowed to use our tool anymore .
So then when you , when you made your own .
Yeah , yeah , they were very against that . They were like this is like a niche space , like you're going to kill the edge . Possibly true , but I think , for a lot of reasons , it's not true .
And then , yeah , just continue to work on odds pulse to make the live arbing is like a well informed and easy to do , like over over time , and we've really been like , I would say the last time I got kicked out of a tool was like September , august or something like that .
These would just be like your standard ARB softwares that run out .
They are . They're sort of like . They're sort of like a little bit niche , like I would make posts on Reddit and Twitter and people would DM me and be like hey , like like stop posting and I'll let you use my tool . And I was like I see . I'm gonna try that .
Yeah , yeah , yeah , yeah . I see it is interesting . The software , the sports betting software space for helping betters , right , because it's like like there's this massive market to be like , oh , come better at our sportsbook and whatnot , but the market for a tool , I find it's it's the more people are in the tool , the less valuable . It is right .
And that's really difficult because you want to build these great tools that help betters but if they're too great , honestly , like , the better the tool , almost the worst it is . It's like this weird , you know , it's very difficult .
So I understand , like those people are saying like hey , like , like you know , don't put out your tool , but I have one you can use it , let's you know , and that's that's common , that's super common in the industry for any type of any type of edge and it's a fine line to walk .
I , I mean , I kind of try to walk it myself , like not post the most obvious edges here or there , but then try to educate people . It's , you know , I don't know how do you see that battle between like helping people actually win and then like the inevitable erosion of an edge that comes when you help people win that way ?
Yeah , yeah , it's an interesting question and I think there's a like a pretty strong argument that the edge does go away and maybe it's gone away
¶ Live Arbing Strategies and Bookmakers' Approaches
already . But I think for live arming in particular , you've got a very like like sort of hill that makes a lot of sense on why this live arming edge is much more difficult to go away , which is that you've got some books that are very bad at pricing lifelines and very good at limiting people who use those bad lines .
So the live arming it seems like those books have taken a stance that they are okay with you doing it once or twice or three times and then they'll limit you . So it seems like they're okay with that line . I don't know how much further that would go , like like you can't really take a zero bet . I think usually they have to take like a couple of pets .
So I think those books are pretty farmed , that they're okay there and that's like the points bed , that 365 , mgm they're all really bad at live lines .
Amongst other things .
Yeah , they're bad at everything . I can't even know how they're pricing anything correctly . I don't know what exactly they're doing . And then you've got like like DraftKings , also very bad , but then you've got like FanDuel , which is sort of in a different bucket for live and Caesars as well , and they're sort of taking the opinion .
It seems to me anyway , that , like we know , people are going to live up against us , against the rec books , so we're going to be making money off of that . So we're okay with that to an extent .
Like , if all you're doing is hitting like lines that we think are okay , versus like the DraftKings , the MGM , the points beds , like your account will be fine , but they also make live art mistakes . I think live lines are very difficult to get correctly , and so if you hit those , those like really broken lines , like 100% are they ?
What I've seen is they don't usually limit you right away . Sometimes it will be the first one hit , but sometimes it will be like less , so like you have to like three of them , like it's like a clear pattern type of thing . And then they'll cap you at , but their caps are usually much more Reasonable it's like $1,000 .
So they're still okay with you playing them against each other . And I don't know what's going on at Caesars , but my guess is they think they're doing a pretty good job live and they're willing to take pretty much whatever against . For the live main lines .
There's probably some exceptions I mean , I'm doing no originating of any kind but it seems like they're okay with anything I do . And then you've got Sportrade as well and they're like an exchange where they've got DL Trading operating the lines there and he's pretty much okay with it . Is what he said . So cool , yeah , and it's Sorry . I mean I'm yeah .
No , no , no , no , circo , of course . So your opinion is generally those books that fall into , like , I think , caesars and Fandall . I think Caesars is trying to push more towards almost like a full sharp book , it feels like , but they're , with Fandall , I think , in that separate category for pregame as well and what they think is okay .
People are gonna , but they're gonna be making mistakes by arbing on our platform . They should just be taking the bet unprotected on drafting . So if they wanna pay us money to de-risk , we're fine with that .
I think that seems like what they're doing to me . So that makes it seem like live arbing almost always will last like a month of doing it , because it probably starts slow and then it has the potential to go much longer , but much more of a grind , which is those Fandall versus Caesars versus Portrait Arbs , which are much less common but still very lucrative .
It just requires sitting in front of the screen , yeah .
So that's like the advanced . So there's two . You think there's like two stages . What I'm hearing from you is there's two stages of live art . There's the live art when you're free to roam around like the worlds are oyster . You have draftings , you have points , but there's just like mistakes all over the place .
And then there's like , okay , you have to get serious and actually grind it out , because you only have you're working against books that are trying to do a good job and those are the only books that will now work with you . So you're trying to find a mistake amongst a group of a smaller group of books who makes much fewer mistakes .
I think there's more after that . There's also like a lot of people who are just kerning through accounts , which is fine . It's just like maybe some risk there . I'm not sure , I don't know . Have you seen any evidence of any legal pursuits of people who are taking a lot of account and betting on behalf and it would be like a problem ? Have you seen it ?
Yeah , well , there's the case in London or in England , which was , I think the case was Bet365 versus Guy , but he was creating fake , like fully fake identities , like true fraud . As far as the people I've talked to , the understanding is if someone else is placing a bet and this is how we operate we basically sell information to people privately .
That's our model and they clicked a button so we don't violate it to see it . But this information is like so I guess you could almost call us a private tout , even though it's like we're telling people this is a good bet , click it . But they're like , yes , and they click the bet and they own the account and they're real people .
I think that's all fine and that's what I've heard from many people as to be fine . If you're clicking , you're obviously going against TOC . Is that illegal ? I don't think so . And if you're creating fake identities , that's fraud , so that's illegal . That's my understanding of it . So for live ARB , you'd have to be clicking .
You can't just be like , hey , are you at your computer ? Oh , you're at the grocery store . Okay , in 30 minutes come back and bet this live ARB when the game's over . That just doesn't work for live ARB . That's why I think originating is so valuable for syndicate player for scaling .
It's because your spots will stay alive longer and you can operate on a model where you're just giving people bets and they're placing them and they're clicking it and it's all above board . That's why I think originating is super valuable in the long run . But yeah , that's my understanding .
Yeah , that's interesting . Yeah , I think there's a lot of people just kerning through accounts and clicking on their F . I think the repercussions are probably going to be nothing , but some people could be being very greedy and I would be surprised if a points bet was not upset at some point yeah , Not even just points bet , anyone .
But that'll be interesting to see how that plays out .
And I think yeah , yeah , no , that's not to say definitely will .
Yeah , yeah . What do you think ? How much money do you think points bet would have to lose for them to be concerned with this ?
That's a good question . In my brain point how do they even make money ? My take on points bet is that they never wanted to make money . They set out to showcase the technology to get bought because they clearly never tried to be good at bookmaking . It just didn't happen . They're so square , so quick with the limit To me .
They wanted to showcase they had some good tech , they have some good market access and they were always trying to get bought or else yeah , that's what I think because they never made an attempt to do a good job .
And by good tech . Do you think the good tech was identifying the winning bettors immediately ? Could be yeah .
Yeah , they were great at it . Seriously , points bet's the best at . Well , I think I don't know how many losing bettors they accidentally limited . That's the thing we don't know .
I know somebody I heard a good story from somebody who'll go nameless , but they basically said that the biggest loser at Bet , mgm , is limited on DraftKings because they bet two steam moves or something and then they got mad and limited them . So now they can't bet and it's just crazy stuff like that . So those are the .
To understand who's good at limiting , you have to know that information . Who has been a false positive and there's no way to All right , classic cranberry juice camera overheating situation . I will have to figure the fan out shortly , but anyway , we were just shitting on points bet for a little bit .
But what I do want to know is I want to give people a walkthrough of intro to live arbing . So let's say I'm Actually that's kind of true I'm not really experienced at all live arbing . So what would you ? I come to you I say Brock , I want to do the live arbing , I want to do the infinite money glitch . Teach me how , what ?
would you say ? So this is what I would say . I'd say , identify the time where there's many games going on . So that would be like my view is the NBA full slate seven o'clock . Usually there's like two games start 740 , another four games start . You can hop on at that probably 710 . And pull up the screens .
They've almost all got screens where it says like what's live right now and then you can start by NBA and you'll just see the six pack of lines which are the spreads , both spreads , both money lines and both totals . And you can sort of watch where all of those games are without much difficulty if there's only , say , two games going on .
And take note specifically , if you're getting started , have about 365 points bet and MGM , the draft kings perhaps up and take note of how they're moving the lines , because the reason the live arms happen is because of usually sometimes it's different , but usually because of some action in the game that's happening happened and so , like if a player got a hit , that
should move the lines in a baseball game to a point that's probably a greater spread than the current big of the lines . So everyone will move sort of once and then you'll see like some of them will just like sort of wait and then pop up after all the other ones .
Some of them will move and then move back and sort of watch what they're doing and you'll see , probably in ARB or it's like a zero , like it's one point away from going on ARB , like almost all the time they're almost always be like zero percent . Someone's that like minus 300 , someone has plus 300 on the other side yeah , okay , okay .
Very often that will be the case .
Okay .
That's great . Yeah , it is great and also you can know some things to probably not need to pay attention to that game anymore . If someone is winning to the point where they have like closed the favorite line for betting , okay , we will not have an ARB anymore , makes sense and let's see anything else .
Even if it's just like very long odds and they still have that , it's also probably going to be not having an ARB there .
So usually you want close games that are back and forth , where there's some action that's happening , that's moving the lines and that's like usually about like 60% of the games that are on like something like 40% go to blowouts , 60% are good games . So you can usually keep track of that Once you've identified that game .
Lakers , celtics is going into ARB all the time between , say , fandal and
¶ Live Betting Strategies and Bookmaker Experiences
points back . Okay , okay , wait for it to hit the quarter end that you're in or the timeout .
Okay .
This is what ?
this is what Ed Miller talked about in the podcast , about being at information par Like because the sports back sports books feed could be a little ahead or something . Is that why you wait ?
Well , I mean it's . I think you can do it and not wait , but if you're gonna get started , definitely you should wait , because you're not gonna be able to identify which odds feed is correct most of the time . Okay , so everyone sort of agrees on quarter end , though .
Okay , okay , I see , yeah , the timeout . It's like a mini market .
Yeah , I don't know . I'm really curious how much money they take in on the quarter end .
Yeah .
Okay , I would guess . So I have no idea what a wreck better does live . Do you have any idea of any guess on what a wreck better would do live ?
Just blasts and complains .
Yeah .
Probably yeah , probably doesn't wait for information par Probably doesn't necessarily wait for timeouts , probably thinks that their TV is ahead of the sports book and that they're getting one over . You know probably a lot of that .
That actually happens fairly often . That's interesting .
Do you have a TV set up like a juiced up TV set up ?
Okay , by TV being ahead , I mean yeah . I was a little bit lying , yeah , but like my phone , sometimes I'll pull up like a , like a video feed Occasionally .
There there was this I think some of these bold games have teams that , like some of these books , were not supporting throughout the interesting , the duration and I think that some of them are are like behind the TV perhaps . Wow .
Why do you think so ?
Just a couple of like big arps that have happened , okay , so , and like their game state data has shown , like there wasn't a touchdown scored yet and like we've got a touchdown , yeah , and then that gets scored on the ice . Yeah , I think it's not very common . The one thing that you can look at is the .
A lot of the sports books have the bet feeds integrated . For NFL . They have like a video that comes in . That feed is almost always the same feed they're going off of . So if you watch that , you will definitely see information that happens before sports books have processed it . But that's like one second edge that you'll have there . It's very different .
Can you bet on that ?
Yeah , you can bet on that . It's hard to place a live bet in like quicker than three seconds Okay .
Yeah , is that like ? Did you get faster over time ? Was that was it ?
Yeah , I'm pretty fast now . The things that limit . You are like . A lot of them will have a timer that like just counts down from 10 and then you'll just have to wait to 10 seconds . Terrible , terrible it is terrible behavior , or some of them will count down from five .
The Caesars and FanDuel Caesars will usually like it'll sort of like spin for like three seconds and then accept unless , like they're , they're gonna reject it . Then it'll spin longer and a little reject .
So have you ever gotten ? I mean , I assume the answer is yes , but have you ever gotten freerolled ? Do you know what I mean by that ?
Yeah , how do you mean You're talking about ? They moved the line off of a live argument .
So it's like they spin the wheel and then they take it if an adverse event happens .
Oh , that's interesting because I don't think An adverse event to you . Yeah , yeah , yeah . What happens on Betfred a lot and hopefully they will is they will do this all the time . They will say you have three and a half as your spread , you'll send it and then they'll just change it to two and a half .
Really and they'll accept it .
Yeah , I even like , I mean it's happened like a couple of times for me , and one time I like took a screenshot before and after because I was like this is probably gonna happen this time .
Yeah .
I want to be prepared to go to support and tell them what happened and took the screenshots and they were like I didn't happen . They were like I didn't happen . I guess you need a video if you're doing it .
I don't know but it's part of the union .
I mean they have to take their , their wins where they can get them . No judgments , we can . Yeah , it's just part of it . Hopefully you don't lose a lot of money when it happens , oh yeah .
I mean Betfred . That's a book that's not trying to be short at all . I'm actually surprised you went deep enough into the streets . You're at Betfred .
Yeah , I used to be at Betfred a lot . They actually had talking about this information part . They patched this , but during MLB season they have a 10-second spinner and they're very clear on what the 10-second is and on MLB side live , it's relatively difficult to become limited below like a thousand dollars in winning , so very usable for the most part .
Yeah , so they were . And Betfred , if you're listening , I'm sorry but they had like a 10-second gap between themselves and Caesars , like game state data , which was extremely impactful in the yeah , in an eighth and ninth inning situation .
Oh , my god yeah .
Someone got a hit like this is game changing information , right ? So you just load up one side , have it in the in the in the queue In the chamber . Yeah .
Yeah .
Yeah , and then as soon as you got a hit fired away , you'll watch it spin for like 10 seconds and sometimes you'll go through . Sometimes you're like gray out , like at seven seconds and yeah .
Yeah . Dude , I love that and that's the other . That's a good point and that's interesting info , it's like . So I had a live betting , one live betting experience where the Dell . There's this one term in golf that's match play and is actually at Caesars .
I was doing most of this betting and they didn't understand how match play affected win probabilities and they're . So .
It's very complicated , but it's totally different than a normal tournament and you could take the ESPN plus feed and just absolutely run them over , and what I would do is what you're talking about is I would just have the feed on , or have as many feeds on as I can , and I would just have all these bets preloaded , waiting for a shot to happen and then , if
you know if it's a , you know if it's a signal , if it's a go like someone pumps one into the water boom and if it's not , then I don't bet it . But it's like you have to having that loaded up before . If you know what your spot is , there's no reason not to just load the chamber early and then you know , because it gives you that extra .
That's important time in these situations yeah , and identifying which book is wrong live is very difficult . That Fred made it very easy to identify yeah , yeah , fair .
It's usually not that that's simple . But when you talk about which book is wrong , this is where I think it gets interesting . The live argument , like it's obvious that if you can take two bets and guarantee a profit , that's a great situation , that's super . You know that's . Everyone can wrap their head around that . We all like that , no risk .
I've talked to people who do some live are being , who have switched to just taking one side . Yeah , do you do that ? What are your thoughts on that ? Is that you know something you're doing more of ?
it's an interesting strategy , I mean . I think like if you're doing Caesar's verse , draftkings , like , just taking the DraftKings , I definitely think it's good . Yeah , mgm , just taking the MGM side is good .
If you're doing a Caesar's verse , fandall verse , like circa verse , portrait verse , pinnacle verse , whatever bookmaker prime or whatever , yeah , I mean to be exclaiming , to be sharp , identifying who's wrong fast enough to live arb is usually fairly difficult because it's usually something context-based .
Okay , like something like there there was this MLB game where a player got thrown out at home and he was clearly safe and it was like game altering 9 , 8 , 8 , 8 . They challenge it . And like he was clearly safe , called out , they challenge it . So the books sort of don't know what to do with this . Like they're sort of right , maybe picking aside .
For some reason they leave the lines open . I'm not sure exactly what's behind that . Leave the lines open and then he comes back . They're all expecting him to be safe if it call stances out .
So like , like , just like weird situations like that where I don't like it could be a , like a either , or , but I don't know , they have to put something on the board .
I guess I think that's a great . So that's something that Ed Miller talks about is he made live models for the books ? So he made the deck prism model , that live that traded or that they traded NFL college football , and then he made an NBA one , I think . So he's done three .
He had an MLB one as well . He had an .
MLB one Okay , cool . And it's like that was a scenario where he was like that's a super easy spot for you to get an edge is when there's a penalty , because there's no data feed that tells the sports books Runner called out likely safe . That's not part of the data that comes in , so it's like it's like challenge .
There's no probability given to the books on how likely the challenge is to be overturned or not or to have it stand . And that's a situation where if you're well versed in the sport and you're up to date with their information and you understand the whole live-arming process , it's like that next level .
It's like okay , that's a situation where it's like , okay , clearly safe , and you get screwed over . That sucks , but in that instance that was probably a really big spot . That spot probably had an EV of like 100% If it's a ninth inning or probably 200 or 300% .
So you only have to get one or two of those , and that's not going to be a situation where you just take the arc , because in there you would know , you would understand why this is happening .
And I think , listening to you talk , I see a lot of people on Twitter who get into live arming and they're like , oh , I can't find any bets or I'm not fast enough or it doesn't work .
But when I talk to somebody like you , you're talking about why and context and setting yourself up to know , not only like to know where to look for the good opportunities , which I think is important because it's not as simple as you just well , maybe it is these days , but click a button , get an ARB .
There's ways that you can make it more likely you'll find a good opportunity , right .
Yeah , If you know , something weird is going to happen , like some StarPlay like John Moran's coming back today , like they don't know what's going on today . Like it's going to be weird .
I think another thing that happens that I'm only sort of starting to do is if there's been a lot of steam going into a game , then I think there's probably a lot of chance that those books live models will have some tendency to like revert back to whatever they originally said .
I'm not sure exactly how much of that there is , but I make sense to the smallest extent that I have been tracking . It seems like that is a good indicator as well . I like that .
It's one of those things where , like in general , when there's movement , when there's uncertainty , it helps to sharp better . Ultimately , because the books they have a lot to do and they might not be watching that game where the bad , the guy slides in and they might have missed the replay , the trader might not see the replay and then they can't do anything .
What can ?
they do when there's a lot of moving parts , a lot of back and forth . I think it's very hard for the books to stand on top of everything that's happening and why , in these weird situations that aren't part of their base model , like part of the base game state , they model for John Morant coming back .
Is he going to be limited on minutes or how is he going to play after being out for so long ?
There's no way to tell , but I'm sure somebody who really understands basketball , who's watched a lot of the games with John Morant in and with John Morant out , when he comes back , they might be like oh , it's clear to me that he's much worse , but their models can't see that he's much worse .
So then this should be a bet , and there's no way the sports books could . They just can't keep track of all of that .
I mean , I don't know it either . I just argue with them . I disagree . On to the next .
I see on your Twitter I think it says you bet millions of dollars on sports . Have very little interest in sports . That's the line .
Is that true ?
You didn't have any interest in much interest in sports coming into this .
Yeah , definitely didn't have . I mean , I think I watched like no sports like the two years prior , maybe more . I would say let's change a little bit .
I actually just removed that like a week ago , because some sports are very interesting , especially like significantly interesting stories and like noteworthy events that happen that cause the ARBs are very , very interesting to me ?
No , I think , I do think that's . There is this .
¶ Understanding Sports Betting Odds and Lines
So I just did like a mini rant podcast about plus EV betting and I do think there's when people are like , oh , plus EV betting , you , just , you know a number pops up and it's dvigged and you bet it . It's like you don't know any sports .
Knowing sports is stupid and it's like I hear that it's that it's that curve , right , that you always see it's like on the far left end of the curve it's like I watch sports , like , but you're , you're like the drooling , like losing better , and then in the middle of the curve you have , you know , don't watch sports , it's you know plus EV math .
And then the far end of the curve , you're like watching sports is like the real pillars are , like watching sports is important . You know , understanding what's going on in the sport is important and I think that's just a hundred percent true .
Like I do think you can get to a certain point without understanding the sport , but after , after that , there's there's just no way that you can be top of the heap at whatever sport you're betting on without understanding the sport it's . I just think it's impossible . I could be wrong , but I think it's impossible .
No , I think you're right . That's a good meme too . I've seen that , or whatever .
It is not a meme , I don't know , it's just like I do like the , the theory behind it of like it's like a circle , and it's like you think one thing and then you're like that thing's so stupid and you're like , well , actually , no , but maybe I'm using it differently or whatever . But yeah , um yeah . I think go on .
I was going to say . I think there's a lot of cases that happened where I sort of like scratch my head , thinking like oh , the odds , I think I should have moved like a little bit more off of that . Like there was a college basketball game the other day , uh , we're like right until the like it was back and forth , uh , it was like a one point game .
Uh , like one team took the lead Um , and then like the odds like stayed exactly the same , like which is .
It went from like like like plus 100 minus one , minus 120 or something like that , and it just like sort of stayed there after they took the lead , um , and it it was like definitely this change in lead happened , um , and like the odds didn't move , um , those cases happen a lot too .
Uh , where you sort of like the odds , like someone is is is wrong here , but are they wrong now or were they wrong before ? Like before this event happened like yeah , that's a good question . I'm certain that some this event is like uh , definitely a very meaningful .
I saw this happen at baseball too , where , like in the late inning , someone would get a hit and like , then the person on like , then they would change the odds . The person on base gets out and the odds would remain exactly the same .
Like , even just like getting picked off at a base , wow , like they would say it happened , um , but keep the odds , the odds the same . And I was like okay , someone's definitely wrong here Like yeah , yeah , yeah . What are they wrong now ?
I don't know Exactly . It's like either are they admitting they were wrong right before that happened or now did they . Just are they asleep at the wheel , you know ?
or or or there could be wrong . Both cases Like they could be wrong . That's just they could , just I don't know . Yeah , I think there is a lot of this like everyone sort of copies a line and like it's probably wrong a lot , and they just let it go to ARB sometimes .
But in these cases , but , but I would guess there's a lot of like origination level mistakes that happen .
So that's , that's a good . This is a question I have for you , and I kind of talked to Ed about it or it's in his book I can't remember which which is which , but the copying of lines live .
You know , what are you seeing in terms of , like sports books , putting up their own line and kind of standing by it , as opposed to like when there's a timeout , when there's a you know whatever , a little bit of break and play , like how often are they just converging together because they're all afraid to like leave an ARB open and they kind of yeah , yeah ,
it's , it's .
It's definitely weird and I've been watching a lot of like NBA lines recently just because there's a lot of NBA games and I didn't do as much college basketball lines because it's it's harder to get money down there at fan Interesting .
I would usually like 500 bucks , which is like fine , but also I use sports rate a lot and they didn't have much liquidity for for college basketball and they do have a lot for NBA . So what NBA ? What happens a lot which is very weird is there's definitely copying going on . It's not always obvious who's copying who .
Interesting I would really like to have and I plan on bringing this up as soon as I can figure out how to do it and not take up too much screen . Real estate is having bookmaker and and pinney up as well , and also maybe bedfare or some other suspects that I have that they're copying . Yeah , that I'm not like actively tracking .
But one thing that I'll note that happens a lot is it'll go to a quarter break or a timeout , okay , and Caesars will have a line that's ARB with FanDuel . It's like very small , like plus , like 390 , minus 380 . And what will happen is like the Caesars will have this , this minus 380 . They'll push it to like minus 500 .
And then , like their , their plus side will become plus 400 . And it'll be like more of an ARB than it was before . And then FanDuel will copy that . And then , like they'll , they'll close their lines . They'll sort of like , mirror this , this , this , plus 400 , minus 500 . Not as big of a move for them , because they were starting out at the plus 390 .
They're moving plus 400 . Plus 400 . Yeah , so , and then what'll happen is Caesars will move it back . Like like very weird , weird , yeah , yeah , very weird . It happens like , like like once a day , that that , that that type of thing will happen .
Very weird . I love it . That is the interest when you're really in the weeds , like that's the stuff that you know , I bet there's very few people who are just hawking those , those live lines , as hard as you right now . So I love hearing like stories like that , which I would have . No , no .
I have no idea what's going on there . I , I , I mean , yeah , it's tough . I'm open to theories on like I , I , I sort of am theorizing that they're trying to like move someone else's line and then take , take , take a line back . It's interesting , but I don't know that that's what they're .
I mean , I , it's it's tough to say , because I , I generally think Fandle is better at NBA pricing , just based on and , and my assessment is like who's winning in my bets of of this category , yeah , so yeah , I don't know what's going on there . Maybe they're just like doing something weird that I don't understand .
Well , fandle is an interesting case because they're all in house . Yeah , it's so rare for a a any operator , to be fully unhoused , especially in the US , especially with such a big footprint like Fandula , so they might be doing weird stuff . That's totally proprietary . They're certainly live to do that because they have the capability to do whatever they want .
They're not beholden to third-party data provider or to third-party line makers . So they could be doing some weird stuff that nobody else is doing , for sure yeah .
Yeah , ed Miller told me one time that the pinnacle , like FD , he would sometimes manually change this penny line and FD would copy it . Okay , so he was aware of this and I had almost never seen this . And I still don't usually pull up penny lines .
The screen real estate is kind of important and I don't really have a way to look at the penny lines in a very easy way yeah , in the same format that I would like to see them in to validate this claim .
But I did see , like maybe three weeks ago or something , sport trade , which is sort of a weird case , had a line that was like all of a sudden the total moved forward . Points off for basketball 40 ? Yeah , 4-0 . And then I was like not knowing what's happening in the game is like sort of impactful . Like I obviously try to go for that one first .
But then I was like trying to check what the line was at Fandall and I see the Fandall line move from like 210 to 250 . And I'm like what happened in this game ?
And then I like look at Caesars and they're like I try to place a bet on the over 210 and they're like we're not accepting bets at this time , which is like very strange and happen , and you see Caesars move the line from like 210 to 215 , which is like not a , but they're like not accepting bets along the way .
So they were like it doesn't seem right , but we don't know what the fuck is happening .
Yeah , and it looks like Fandall sort of copying someone and I don't know .
It's like an air move , yeah yeah , that feels like moving on total air . So you talk about screen . So I'm trying to . I'm trying to . Well , you like this is what do you think of your space just blowing up in the last couple months Like it's ?
interesting about that . Yeah , I mean I think it's good because I think hitting the rec books against like the slightly less rec books is going to stay for a while and if you only hit main lines , I think that should make it much more difficult to impose limits quicker .
I think if you're doing like first quarter alternate spread or something like that , like it makes a lot of sense that the books would limit you very quickly . But just main lines is like sort of a thing that I think they would have some sort of like pride in .
Like we want to allow people to bet on our main lines and we're sort of like all in on the main lines , yeah . So I think the space blowing up is going to be and I think has been a good thing for odds pulse , like getting new users to find out about us and like find out about live arbing .
I would definitely like more people to be like posting live apps that hit with odds pulse . So that would be great . And I've these people who are doing it . They're sort of like very interested in like like I don't know , I don't know exactly what it is , maybe stubbornness in like they're like promoting someone else or something .
So I think it is that good because we definitely have seen more people join . It could be just like improving our product experience or like more people following me for some reason , but I think the space blowing up is very interesting
¶ One-Click Tool for Live Sports Betting
. I'm very curious why it happened . What was your experience ? Because for me it was more like like Elf just like posted this video and then , like everyone sort of was like retweeting it .
Elf is the . He's the guy with the sleeve .
He's the guy with the sleeve , yeah .
Yeah , he's friends with . He did a video with my friend Juan . Yeah , I think , yeah , I think he must be driving some of that traffic . And then I think the one click tool from Odds Jam is probably what really I think that's what mainly probably blew the space up , just because people like what's easy , you know people , easy money sells and gets eyeballs .
So that's probably mainly it .
I don't know , I don't really this one click tool is is interesting to me because I have seen sort of like these feature release emails in the past and they're sort of like we introduced like refreshing the , the odd , like the ARB screen , and it's like I don't know . That sounds like a very easy effort , ask , and then it's like one click bedded .
That was like . That sounds like very complicated to do . So I'm sort of confused on why it's and maybe it's not easy to implement , but why it's able to be implemented .
It seems like I don't know either .
Yeah , I don't know , this was weird .
I don't know . I would assume sportsbooks wouldn't want it implemented .
Yeah , I mean that's . That's sort of an interesting point for me as well , because I don't know . I think some odds like live ARB services are also in the business of like I like helping the sportsbook identify . It's sort of like a strange face to be in and I've got a hunch that that's maybe part of what's happening , but I don't really know .
Yeah , I think a one click tool , I'll be honest , terrible Like I , like Alex and you know and whatnot but I think it's absolutely terrible for account health . Like you won't catch me dead using a one a one click tool on any person , on any betting partner . We throw in just awful , awful for a good .
I could see it like making sense out of a penny or something like that , but I don't even know if it works that like a sharp book .
Yeah , I don't . I don't know why a sharp book would take it . I think they would just bring it in in house , like it does it . Yeah , the one click tool is weird . I think that's what blew the space up , though , and I think I think it's .
I think anything that helps people get reps winning betting is good Ultimately like I talked about this from from time to time , but there's there's this psychological hurdle that you have to clear . That's like okay , I can beat a sports book .
It's like with you , like you started and you were like , wow , like this promo , I played this the wrong way , but I kind of learned something I think I can started arbing promos and then you started just arbing just traditional ARBs , and then you started doing more advanced arbing , which is like understanding the game state of the sport and where to look and
arbing mainlines and arbing the sharper books , and there's this progress that like has to start with easy money somewhere . So I think it's good and I think what is going to be interesting is like what happens when you burn through your you know , five , six soft book accounts really quickly . What do you do then ?
I think that's always the next question , but I think it's good to get people winning , make some money , understand you can be at the books , but then it's like what's next and there has to be something . You have to be able to take it to a next step by using your brain and doing some original thinking . Yeah .
And after you burn those accounts , definitely check out odds pulls .
Yeah , exactly , and we'll have the link in everything I put out and we'll get you . I mean , are you on the Discord ?
On the GP Discord .
I'm in the GP Discord , Okay okay , what we did with Tom from Unabated was we kind of had him walk through , do a live walkthrough . So what we should do is we should maybe bring you on if you have time on a .
Friday and you can walk through the tools and talk over it , because I do think there's something to be said for watching somebody who's an expert do something . Following along . We can talk about on this podcast your opinions on how to best start with live art , but watching you do it live , I feel like that's a no-brainer , easy way to learn .
So , if you'd like , we would love to have you in the . Discord to do a tutorial ?
Yeah , that would be good . I love the GP Discord . I wish I knew more about golf because it seems like a lot of . I'm glad you don't . Do you do any live golf stuff ? Not really . There was that match play . We turned them in .
That was a bonanza , and then not really . I've thought about it a little more . They'll leave match up . They'll put up match up odds . There's certain situations where I could see there being an edge . Basically like if a player hits a ball into a spot that they don't know is actually really bad , then there could be an edge there .
But the juice on the live matchups is insane . So I think they're protected . I haven't dug too much into it .
I mean what's up ? How insane is the juice .
Minus 135 , minus 135 . That's pretty much it . Welcome to the world of alt sports . They'll have a whole matchup , a matchup on one hole of golf . Be like minus 120 , minus 120 . And it's like I'm probably plus 120 . Not actually , but against it .
On one hole of golf you could have the best player in the world Like basically not be minus 120 against the worst player on the tour and that's their standard juice for one hole of golf . The golf derivatives are still really highly juice . There's some good value , but we're so pregame heavy in mid tournament . We do mid tournament .
We could bet on a winner after round one , but it's like are we betting on it mid round ? Not . Usually there's some round four stuff Like . Another thing that you said which is important to everybody listening on live betting is the further into the game , the more value there usually will be .
So a good example of this is Cam Smith at the players when he won . So he was on the 18th hole with the lead and there's basically no way he can lose , except for he punches out of the woods into the water and the odds swing from him being like minus 500 to being like plus 100 in one shot or something .
And that wouldn't happen if it was like day two and he punched out of the woods into the water . But since it was the last hole of the whole tournament , the effect of what happens on the field is amplified greatly . Same thing as like the runner sliding and getting called out in the ninth . It would be different if it was in the first .
It wouldn't have as high of an impact on the probability of who wins . So the deeper into a game , the deeper into event , the bigger the swings will be in win probabilities and the better Usually the live betting will be . I would assume Would you agree with that .
Yeah , I do agree with that .
¶ Starting Live Betting Without Software
I was going to say for UFC , I have all bet a little bit of UFC live . I just was curious on how like accurate these motions were . And I think for golf you've also got the component where it's maybe more slow moving and something like .
Basketball is very fast paced and same with like MLB , sort of like fringe ish fast because like each pitch can happen sort of fast . But I think golf is a bit slower . Football is like somewhat combined fast and slow , but yeah , very fast and right .
I've never really seen a UFC fight , but if you just pull up the UFC odds on three or four sportsbooks , I think every match I've ever done this for the ARPS will be very , very large . You just can't really bet that much .
Interesting , so you'd say that could be like you can't bet that much , it might be a good spot to start live .
It's a confusing spot to start live , like the match could end as soon as you place one of those bets , whenever Right .
It did not get the other side because it was a can or whatever . Yeah , yeah . So if you were to start , you mentioned basketball . Around seven o'clock is when they're going to have early . What is it Like ? Sit down the computer like seven 10 .
Yeah , seven Eastern and seven .
Eastern .
And have them like open . Have your slightly less rec seizures and fan dual .
And do you think that you can do ? You can get started without software , without odds and okay .
Because I think that's good , because a lot of times , like I think one thing I want to do more of is show people ways they can win without paying for software , because it is like people are sometimes afraid to make that initial investment before they've started winning . So it's like so what would you say ? Like what ?
What you put you , pull up your sharp , a couple of sharp books and a couple of rec books .
I would be very surprised if you don't see an ARP just watching whatever games close on on , especially if you haven't burned a points bet . Like look at the points bet lines , they will go ARP right Three or four times , maybe even a very large ARP , and you will be like sort of hooked based on that .
There you go and pretend ARP on a main line like crazy .
That's fun . That's fun , okay , so like you would . So if I don't have software , you say I pull up Caesars Fan Dual and then like points bet draft Kings , yeah , yeah .
If you're just getting started , it's maybe easier just to do two points bet for Caesars and points bet for Fan Dual . Okay .
Okay , yeah , that makes sense . Points bet , yeah , just , would you even have the game on ?
No , I don't think so .
Yeah , could just confuse you .
Yeah , throw some low five beats on there .
Low five beats and two sports books .
What all of them are . All those lines are If any of them have gone closed , they'll probably go close again . Stuff like that .
I love it . Okay , very cool . So I think I feel like we should leave everybody with that , which is get up Caesars , get up points bet , get up some low five beats and just wait in the weeds and you know , once you hit that first big ARB , you'll feel the rush and , you know , go from there . But it's great .
That's a great way to start without having to invest in software with , without having to take on a ton of risk , because you're actually just either arbing or you're taking the points bet side . Whichever one you want to do , just bet , points bet or take the ARB , whichever one kind of feels more , you know , aligned with what you're feeling at the time .
Because , of course , me and Brock would say the points bet side is the better side . But it's also nice to not have , you know , your money at risk when you're starting out , and if that's helpful , then that's helpful .
So yeah , and also it's possible . Caesar is wrong . They've made mistakes before they can mistake again , that's true .
That's true , certainly , certainly . It won't be 100% , 0% , it'll be like 90 , 10 or something for sure . So yeah , just take . You know , that's the Caesar's points bet . Low five trio of power is what I recommend to the audience .
Yeah , and I just didn't in the bathtub , just chillin' .
The plus , the bathtub , which this is the first time we've talked about betting from a bathtub , hopefully not the last . I think we need to normalize baths and betting from baths more . It's a great lifestyle Combo . Yes , keeps you cool , keeps you kind of untilted right , that's right . So anyway , I think that's great . I always want people to leave .
I want I don't know with these . I want people who are on a couple of different levels of their betting journey to leave with something , and I definitely want people who are more towards stuff on to leave with actionable stuff . And it doesn't get more actionable than that , just the bare bones .
The Caesar's got the points bet , get the Caesar's get the bet MGM out whichever . Compare the two and just watch and wait and then you'll pick up the momentum once you start actually clicking in ARBs and seeing like , oh , I just made money by clicking in two bets and then go get odds pulse .
Once you've earned your points , bet MGM or you can use us for points bet too .
We support points bet .
That's right . Yeah , that's true , you can use them before , but I do think that's a good value for it . I think being like hey , look , this is how you can learn how to do it , do it , I'll teach you . You're at Brock's here teaching us how to do it without his software for free .
But if you want to do main lines and stuff , then if you get more advanced , then he's going to have this service that can help you with main lines . I love it . It's like eventually , that's kind of like .
The model I have always envisioned is like I want to teach people how to win at sports betting for free and then maybe , if they're really interested in going to higher levels or something that will be something in the future , I could sell . But that initial get you from negative to break even or break even to slight winner .
I do think that there's a value out there of just giving that away for free , because it's just really helpful to teach people how to not lose this for a book . I think that's just overall societal good . That's fun .
Yeah , it's good , it's interesting . Societal good is an interesting way to put it . I think it's societal good .
It's like .
I think it's like because some people really like watching sports and like betting and if they can do that and not have it , drain their savings and fuck their retirement or whatnot , I think If they're going to do it anyway , I think that if you can teach some people how to enjoy it and win your tourism , and then if you want to make a serious side income
or do this professionally , it takes a lot more and the teaching that would go into that would be way more involved and you might burn a couple of your own things . So that's a whole separate question . But I think just the easier stuff you can teach to anybody and anybody can do it .
And if they're already doing it , why not do the easy stuff that makes money ? Yeah , yeah . So anyway , you heard it Caesars , points bet , we're coming for points bet and low five beats . Yeah , dude , thanks for coming on . Of course , Like being one of the true top dogs in the live art space ?
I'm not aware of that .
Well , I'll proclaim you as that , at least from a combination of actually doing it plus building software . I think that's important because you're actually still doing it every day . You're getting your hands dirty , you know what goes into a good experience of live art , and you know when stuff changes .
I think it's important to like be in their bedding , so I can't wait to have you do a little demo for the Discord , so everybody who's listening to this , who's more interested in learning more . The Discord link will be in the show notes , so will the odds pulse link .
If you want to get started with that , I'll put Brock's Twitter up SportsBeddingGuy also in the show notes , so feel free to DM him . You're very responsive to DMs .
This is another thing I want to talk to you about .
Okay .
Not to like continue this weekend and talk about it later ? No , have you ever DMed ? Jeffery Benson on Twitter .
I haven't . I like him , though , yeah .
He responds in like a second . Like you would think this man has like a lot going on , but he'll be like getting a thousand tweets at him and , like you DM him and like , oh , what's the deal with my circumvent and instant response ?
Like he is on Twitter .
He's like , so he lives on Twitter .
I love , I love Jeff and what he does on Twitter and this is like this is getting into holding another thing . But Jeff and Brett , who was on the podcast and then we had to take it down because of you know certain things .
But the people who are on the bookmaking side , who are engaging with customers , who actually answer questions instead of being like , oh , it's policy , we've decided with accordance with the risk and the trade , you know , like the general corporate DS , like these guys are out there actually engaging with betters , great for the community .
Jeff , if you're listening , would love to have you on .
Take some bit of a break from Twitter , though , man .
I know you're out there crusading for all of us , but for your own longevity and mental health , get off Twitter a little bit .
I can see why he's always on . It's really interesting Like what's happening on Twitter .
He's definitely like the kind of like the guy in the space I would say on Twitter , at least from the bookmaker side , and you know , I think he gives Circa a lot of good press . I love Circa , Love what they're doing . I think that you know . Yeah , anyway , I'm all pro .
I just think I find sometimes if I'm on Twitter too much , it just starts to like cloud my brain . So you know , but shout out to Jeff and to people who are in the space , like Jeff , who actually take time to respond to DMs . I actually think people are more responsive to DMs than you generally think .
So if you reach out to somebody with like a well thought out question , if you reach out to Brock , you know , with an example , about respond to everyone he responds . You know , if you reach out to me , I try and be super responsive . So , yeah , just don't be afraid to reach out to people .
I mean , I met Brock through Twitter and I met all of my guests through Twitter actually . So , like , get out there , dm people . Everybody's interested in the same stuff really in the space . So that's another good , that's a good note to end on .
Yeah , I do think in the plus EV space , a lot of the people who are doing , who are winning better , is doing it the right way and not trying to sell some like scam are pretty open and interested in engaging on Twitter and you know , helping people out , so it's not as scary as it seems .
Just , you know DM I don't know DM Spanky , who knows , could get back to you .
Yeah , jeffrey will definitely get back to you . Definitely DM 1.8 to 5 AM . We want the afternoon , it does not matter , I respond instantly .
I actually might have to DM him now , just because we did this whole segment about how quickly he responds to DMs , and maybe… .
He's fine to me like literally doing something else , but he just like immediately responds to it . I'm almost thinking like he has a team doing it for him .
The Jeffrey Benson Twitter team . Yeah , he's a celebrity , these celebrities . They have people manage their social media . Yeah , well , we'll get them on and then we can confront them and say , do you have a team running your Twitter or not , and see what he says . Yeah , I would be very curious about that . All right , man . Well , thanks again for hopping on .
We'll try and get you in the Discord this Friday . I'll post in there and yeah , thanks again for the chat . Everyone , please give Baraka a follow and get into that live Again . Seizures points , bet low 5 beats bath . That's money . That's how you make money . So do that . And thanks everyone for watching and I will see you on the next episode .