Every "Capper" is Doing THIS Wrong | Ep 13

Hey , golden pants 13 here today I want to talk about what's kind of become my biggest crusade , at least on Twitter and a little bit in the discord , and this is my crusade to get everybody to bet more unders .

Now I know I say that a lot , but in this episode I really want to convince you why betting unders just blindly this is just blindly betting unders is better than betting overs . And then , with that in mind , why it's better to spend your time going out and looking for unders instead of going out and looking for overs .

Okay , so first I want to give a little context behind what I'm even talking about . Over the last couple , a couple weeks , I've been on Twitter . I've just been seeing like all these you know quote , unquote cappers as as you call them , posting all these overs . I do see it in in the discord a lot of overs being played , a lot of overs being recommended .

But if you look at my plays , I'm almost always betting on golfers to do poorly when it comes to DFS . So under on their birdies , over on their strokes . And when I say bet unders , I just mean betting on players to quote , unquote do poorly , right ? So you know , in golf , if you look past , you know .

If you were to go to my channel and scroll all the way back , you know , maybe that's an exercise I should do and just like , show what percent is .

You know overs and unders , with the birdie or better matchups not counting because those are matchups , but like the actual , actual stat categories , I'm betting on players to do poorly , I think , like 90% of the time .

But if you go on Twitter and you see all these , you know cappers , right , I'm doing heavy air quotes here cappers and I ask Kroz this because he he's in a lot of premium discords they're recommending like 85% overs and that just blows my mind . It blows my mind because it makes it makes zero sense when you actually sit down , think of it , think about it .

So I'm gonna go . I want to , in this episode , break down why that makes zero sense and hopefully by the end of this , you start to see , you start to look at this differently and when you see someone on Twitter who's only posting overs , you can kind of quickly gloss over them as a viable source of information .

So this not only will inform your betting , but I think it'll actually help you identify potential capper . You know cappers to tail more quickly and more accurately . So let me tell you . Let me tell you this story about an interaction I had on Twitter , you know , with someone who sells picks .

So they have an AI model and they they post plays from their AI model every day and I saw it was just overs . So I wrote it's interesting that AI models make the same mistakes as humans . They only pick overs . And then the guy over at back I only post overs . It's different . And then I asked oh okay , why ? And he just never responded .

And you know what it is it's because I don't think he's ever asked himself really why he's only picks overs .

And it dives into the psychology behind overs and unders , right . So I think there's two reasons that , just as humans were inclined to pick overs , if you take our brains out , or you take like , if you take our logical reasoning out of it , I do think we're inherently inclined to pick overs for two reasons . One reason I'm kind of optimistic , you know .

I think people truly want a route for people to do well . I think out there we generally are good people . We have each other's best interests in mind and it's nice to root for someone to do well . So I think that's reason number one .

Reason number two is it's easier to create a narrative around and over I think I said this earlier , but it's really easy in your mind seeing I think this was the exact example I gave like Connor McDavid cut through the defense and score a goal . That's a very quick visualization in your mind .

What's a little harder to see is Connor McDavid's 30 minutes of ice time where he just gets shut down and doesn't score that game . That's harder narrative to visualize . So it's easier to visualize the narrative that's the over that they're doing well , the narrative of LeBron dominating , or Steph Curry Splash and Threes or whatever it is .

It's easier to visualize that than it is to visualize them getting shut down the whole game . I'm actually going to add a third reason why we like to take overs instead of unders . This doesn't really apply to golf , it applies to other sports .

Over can hit in the first period , first 10 minutes of the game , whereas an under , no matter what you're sweating the whole game . So an over has that ability to give you that quick release of dopamine that it could hit at any moment , whereas an under , all you're rooting for is for something not to happen . It's more stressful .

Every additional play is kind of like a threat to your money , whereas when you have an over , every additional play is an opportunity . So I think that's the third psychological reason that we're biased towards taking overs . Now let's talk about some of the stats that I've heard around unders . This is from industry experts and stuff .

First , there's that story about we had someone on the discord whose friend was one of the first employees at Prize Fix . They said that they called all the Sharp Betters the undertakers because they would just take unders and they would win consistently .

This ties up with what I've heard from other people in the industry and what I've seen on Twitter , just from the sheer ratio of overs to unders being so skewed . So what I've heard is that around 85% of picks on the DFS sites are overs . 85% of the picks are overs . Now , keep that in mind .

Right , 85% of the picks are overs and the DFS sites target lines . They target lines that are set so that the overs only hit about 45% of the time . So they make more money because they know everybody's betting over .

They internally have targets to set the line so that overs hit less than unders , because they know these psychological biases that I just talked about . This is not new for gambling , this is not new for gambling . But they're essentially playing on our psychological biases and trying to take advantage of that .

So the DFS sites know we're going 85% overs and they reset the line so that they set the line , not reset it . They set the line basically with a goal , with a target of having overs hit less than unders , because they understand where their customer's money is . So you've got to put yourself in the shoes of the DFS site here .

Okay , so you put yourself in the shoes of the DFS site and you know that . You see the metrics coming in . You know what your customers are betting . You see 85% of your customers are betting overs . So what are you going to do ? Naturally , like A , you have just more risk exposure to overs .

So you have to win a little bit more just to mitigate your risk . And B , if you want to make more money and you know that people are just blindly drawn to overs , then you would set the lines a little bit with a little bit of a lean towards the unders . Just move the line slightly so overs hit a little bit less . You'll make a lot more money .

If you were in the shoes of the DFS operators . It's not hard to imagine that that's what you do At the end of the day . Dfs operators are just DFS players . They're just sports betters , just like all of us , right . So they're going to . We're playing a zero sum game with them . They're playing a zero sum game with us .

So it makes a lot of sense that they're thinking about this stuff and they're trying to optimize their profit , just like we're trying to optimize our profit . Okay . So now you're thinking okay , great , I believe you . All right , stop yelling at me about taking unders . I get it . I get it . I get it . How does this help me make money ?

To illustrate this , I want to tell a story back from my trading days . So the firm I worked with we got this tracking software that we actually didn't have the first year I was there . So towards the end of the year , we all started kind of reviewing our metrics together .

We had all these insights that we never had before and we started to realize that and we were flat at the end of the day , which means that we were day traders , so we never held positions overnight . We were trading on an incredibly , incredibly short timeframe . But when we looked through our stats we noticed that our longs were making us a lot of money .

In our shorts we were like breaking even on at best , and that , to me , was crazy , because this is equities and the US equity market . It does rise over time . So I understand why people who have long term longs , because over time it goes up .

But what we were seeing is that 2% , 3% , 4% , whatever I guess it's like 7% natural push upwards a year of the market was even having an impact on a micro intraday scale . That was extremely significant when it was applied to thousands of trades over the course of the year . So what I learned there was the conditions that we worked in .

The conditions of the market were slightly stacking the deck towards going long .

I had to switch my mindset to where my natural inclination was to go long and if I was to go short , I would have to be really , really , really confident in it and I would have to be more careful maybe a tighter stop or something , or second guess myself if my natural reaction was to get short .

Flipside was I kind of let loose on the long side a little bit more and focus a little more there , and I made a lot more money . And this is exactly what's happening . This is the exact opportunity that's happening in the DFS market right now . But flip it .

Right now the market is offering kind of like a tailwind towards unders and it's offering resistance towards overs . So you want to kind of rotate around . Put yourself in the same , on the same page as the house . What do you think ? You know price picks ? What do you think underdog ? What do you think they're rooting for ?

When they have all of their customers on the over , they're rooting for the under . That's the only way they make money . They make money when unders hit and they make a lot of money . So I would just do the easy thing and kind of turn around , align yourself with them .

Have your natural inclination to be bet unders and then bet overs if it's like absolutely obvious spot . But only do that after you've considered other unders . And look , I understand that betting unders might not seem as fun and it's . You know . I mean , I get it . You don't want to root against people . It's not always the most fun .

But I always tell myself you know you're here to play the game , you're here to make money and that's certainly what I'm here for , and it's just part of the game . There's nothing inherently good about an over or inherently bad about an under . What you're doing is trading . You're just trying to make the best decision you can .

If it's an under , the player who's playing that game has no clue . You bet under on them . It doesn't matter to them . The only thing that matters is you're getting that . You know you're stacking the deck slightly more in your favor and you're making the correct decision in the game of DFS , in the game of sports betting .

So to me that's fun and that's what's important .

So , anyway , I'm still going to keep pushing the play more unders and I don't worry , I'm never going to stop saying play more unders until something drastically different changes in the industry , but I don't think it will .

So anyway , I hope that gave you some inspiration to go start go out instead of , instead of looking for overs , go out and look for unders first . So I'd love to have that first inclination be like was there a good under here ?

And I bet , if you do that and you give it time , give it a little time , you know , maybe a month for you to switch your mindset and just see , see where you're at at the end of that and let me know .

I mean , I'd be really curious to hear what everyone's experiences and how their results have changed , if they've gone from betting majority overs , majority unders , maybe track what percent overs , what percent under , as you're doing , and just by trading and just by tracking it , it might kind of naturally align itself .

I don't know , but I think this is a very interesting topic . I don't have , you know , I'm not certainly have , I don't have all the information in the world , but I have some very good information and beliefs that betting the unders is the is just the easiest thing that you can do to switch from break even to winning .

If that's where you are , if you just flip it and go more unders and overs , I think you'd be pretty amazed at what happens to your results . So anyway , hope that was . That was fun . Listen , hop into the discord , dm me , let me know your favorite unders , let me know your favorite overs . Like I'll bet and over . You know , if it's good value I'll bet it .

But you know , hit me up and thanks for listening .