Do You Actually WANT to Win? | Ep 17

Today we're talking about I'm going to kind of dive into a tweet that I wrote a couple days ago , and the tweet was this it's hard to be losing better when you pretend the following Pretend someone has a gun to your head and says you have to make 10k plus this year . Sports betting , price shopping , promos and ARBs suddenly become more attractive .

Punting on your gut feelings get scarier . Use this , okay . So this tweet actually had some positive reactions and I've heard in the discord people say this mentality because I think I wrote about this or talked about this on a podcast briefly has helped them make money . Now I want to dive into this , because this is a mentality that I use .

Even if it's not , you know , trying to make 10k , if it's trying to make higher amounts , it doesn't really matter what level you're at . You can still harness and use this mentality . So first I'd like to kind of dive deeper into this right .

So what this tweet kind of means and what this idea of like , if you have a gun to your head and they say you know you have to make 10k betting , what would you do ? What this is kind of getting at is that it's not incredibly hard to make money . Sports betting it's actually super easy .

Now you're like , oh well , I heard only you know 1% of bettors win . Okay , just throw that out right , just stop thinking about that . House always wins . No , they don't think about this .

What if all you did was you went to every site that you could that had deposit bonus , deposited to get the full bonus and only bet on the discounted lines and the promotions on that site to play through the bonus ? Could you lose ? Could you lose if that's all you did ? That was the only thing you did .

You never said , oh , I'm going to go watch this game , I'm going to throw 20 bucks on these player props or whatever . If the only thing you did was play through deposit bonuses and bet on promotional offers , how hard would it be to make money ? And the answer is it would be . You're guaranteed to make money .

So now we've kind of thrown this concept to the side that you know it's hard to make money at sports betting . It's actually really easy to make money sports betting like almost the easiest way to make money right now . But most people don't do it . And why is that ?

And what I think is it's not because people don't know how to , almost , but they don't want to . Right Like everybody knows who's seen deposit bonuses and seen the promotional offers that you could make money just by using deposit bonuses and promotional offers . I think it's not that hard to understand that . But why do people not ?

There's been this quote that I heard early on in my trading career . That's always stuck with me . This quote stuck with me for over 10 years . It was this famous trader in the 80s , ed Sequoia . A very interesting guy , you should look him up . But he said when or lose , everybody gets what they want out of the market .

When or lose , everybody gets what they want out of the market . This always struck me as really poignant because I found that there are people at my trading firm I've seen in poker , sports betting and whatever that I don't actually know if I think they're trying to win .

They might say they're trying to win or they might say they want to win , but after something else they might even want to lose . I have no people who actually want to lose and they do and they complain about it , how unlucky they are , but at the end of the day they don't have to lose .

In this example , we've already seen how easy it is to win at sports betting . The key now to sports betting is just wanting to win , knowing how , no matter what level you are , you can win . If you're early on , just stick with the promos and the deposit bonuses .

Then on the side you can develop using an odd screen and doing what they call EV betting or whatever . You can develop that on the side . Once you get more comfortable you can start using that . But if you can't win , betting your own opinions yet , it's great . You still know how to win deposit bonuses and promos .

It's boring , but if you actually want to win , it's easy . First we have to all ask ourselves like what do we want out of this ? For a while I think I want the wrong things . From poker , from trading , I wanted to make cool plays or be seen as a good player .

After hearing this ed to quote and thinking about what I actually wanted , it really changed my mindset on how I approach gambling , because I realized the best traders , the best poker players , the best sports betters , everyone who I saw who was making money .

They were always talking about their hourly , how much money this opportunity can make them , how they can optimize their health so that they can play an extra hour a day . They were like machines . They treated it like a business .

And then there is me where I treated it like some kind of thought exercise , where I wanted to seem really smart or have people think I made a really cool play or that I know what I'm talking about . The people who were making money didn't care about that . They wanted to make money , so they did so .

Once I finally switched my mindset to actually just want to make money , it became a whole lot easier to make money .

And the beautiful thing about this mindset about having the mindset of I need to be doing the things that I would be doing If someone put a gun to my head and said you have to make this amount of money sports betting this year , what would you do ? It works , no matter what level you're at and what your tools are .

When you first start betting and you don't know any winning betting strategies . Well , you can start off with deposit bonuses and promos .

And you know what , if you had to make 10K , if you absolutely had to and all you knew were deposit bonuses and promos , you still could do it , because what you would do is , instead of staying in whatever state you are , you might plan a trip , go to a few different states , take advantage of a couple different deposit bonuses for sports books , for the DFS

sites and whatever , and I guarantee you there's 10K of money out there just doing that . So if you had to do it , you could use that . But let's say that you now want to make a living sports betting , so whatever that is . Maybe you want to make 100K in a year . Well , you have to have a couple of extra skills .

You're not going to make 100K doing I mean , actually I don't want to speak to this I'm sure there's people out there who've made six figures just doing like promotions and deposit bonuses and whatever . But let's just say that you want to make 100K in a little more sane way sports betting . So now you have to have a couple of other skills .

So that's going to be steam chasing . That's going to be what people are calling EV betting . Which . What's EV betting ? It's essentially just using an odd screen , finding spots where the market disagrees on certain prices . Hopefully you know which book is sharper than the other book . Have a way to know who you should be agreeing with place about .

Now we're not going to get . We talked about EV betting , we've talked about some of this before , steam betting and whatnot but the point is , maybe those are the tools that take you to 100K , right . Okay , and now you know , like steam betting and being very disciplined with an odd screen , that's a good way to make 100K . That'll work .

And if you don't stray outside of that framework and you do deposit bonuses , promos , the odd screen work , the steam chasing all of a sudden it's going to be pretty easy to make 100K if you absolutely had to . And then now let's see you need to make a million . Well , now that's a difficult question . How would you make a million ? You need betting partners .

You need probably to have some type of regeneration work that you're doing right , and it would need to be a full-time job . But there is a different framework there . And if you're at that level where you're thinking your goals are in the millions of dollars , it's the same thing , but maybe you specialize in a sport and you originate For us .

If I'm applying this to me , I'm thinking okay , my specialty is golf . There's some football work to be done . We're doing some football , there's a little bit of soccer .

But if I really want to , if I had a gun to my head and they said I'm doing this live on the podcast , this thought exercise , right now you have to make a million dollars this golf season or this next year , I think I would probably just focus on golf . I would push a little bit harder into originating .

I would develop more betting partnerships , probably figure out which spots we're going to take the biggest amount of money , or at least reevaluate that , because I haven't done that recently enough . This is actually . This is helping me , because it doesn't really matter what your benchmark number is , if it's 10K , 100k , a million .

What matters is that you're thinking in this mindset where you're making it , where you're just like being a vicious competitor to the sportsbook and you're making it hard for them to take your money . You don't want to be easy money for them . You want them to have to claw it out of your hands . You want to be a bad customer to the sportsbook .

At the end of the day , this is the way you do it . You want to put everything you can and use everything you can to win money . You want to make it as hard as possible for them to beat you . In doing that , you're going to inevitably start to win a decent amount of money .

In this framework , in this mindset , there's really one way that makes you more money , because what you can achieve the number , that 10K goal , if it's 100K , if it's a million , what you can achieve is still constrained by the skills you have and the bankroll that you have .

It's going to be hard to make a million dollars if you start the year with a 10K bankroll . If you start the year with a $2 million bankroll , it's certainly in the realm of possibility that you can go out and make a million dollars . That's number one . Increasing your bankroll is one way , but the main constraint is your skills .

I can't just go originate an FL , but that's the biggest market in the world . If I wanted to make $20 million , I'd probably have to learn how to originate football . The golf market just won't handle 20 million of profit from one better , but the football market can . I'm sure Billy Walters has had many $20 million years .

I'm sure the NBA market said people will beat it for 10 million a year or more . If I wanted to get to that level I would have to go develop a new skill which is originating a tougher sport . But if you're looking at it like I don't necessarily have a sport I specialize in where I'm comfortable betting the numbers I come up with , that's totally fine .

So now you know if you want to win what you need to do . It's deposit bonuses , promos . Start to look into Steam , chasing an odd screen , you know . Follow the odds , jam people , the daily grind , fantasy . Get unabated and start working on understanding the market . That's the next step .

So do what you can to win while on the side you're building up these additional skills that will eventually increase the number that you can make .

So it's like I think of it and this is kind of how we think of our betting operation is like there's keeping the lights on and making the money , and then there's a certain bandwidth that we give to R&D and thinking about new things because it is important to build those skills .

But we build those skills on the side as a secondary operation to our main operation of making money . There's no perfect split . I'd say we're probably like 80 , 20 , 80% we're just doing what we know . 20% we're always trying to develop and read and learn , talk to people .

It could even be a little higher if you include like networking and talking to people , hearing what they're doing . That's always very helpful . That can expedite sharing information .

It can really expedite the R&D cycle because if you have a friend who might be doing some type of , who might have some edge , you have another edge and you kind of share that information . You're both going to gain another tool on the toolkit and I think it's going to be a net positive .

Even if , like , they eat into your edge just a little bit , it won't be so much that it negates all the value you get from their edge . So sharing is also another really good way to kind of jump over that learning cycle or jump up the learning curve , right .

So anyway , I don't want to beat a dead horse with this , but I think it's important to think about your mindset and what you want out of sports betting when you're approaching it , right , you know , take the time to step back and be like am I doing this to make money ? If I'm not , is betting to make money something I actually want to do .

If it is , then how do I make money and then go about with that goal of making money instead of that goal of an intellectual curiosity or entertainment or whatever it is , and those will come from making money .

I promise it's fun , but you have to make sure that you're aligned with if you want to make money , you're aligned with that goal , your actions are aligned with that goal .

Anyway , we talked about all this in the Discord please join . We actually just launched a website which basically is just links to Discord , podcast , some socials and an overview of what we're trying to build with this community . So if you want to check it out , it's goldenpantscom .

That's a good way to get into Discord , see what we offer , subscribe to the email list , et cetera , et cetera . So if you listen to this and you've gotten something out of it , take the time . I'd really appreciate it if you could just share it with someone else who might be interested . I don't run ads here .

I don't really like the idea of having sportsbook sponsorship . I've talked about this a lot , but I want to make what I'm building . I want to make it a free and non-affiliated with sportsbook community where people can come and learn how to make that first money In the context of what we were talking about .

Learn how to make that first 10K , even that first 100K , for free . So , anyway , I hope you got something out of this . Again , please share it if you did , and I will talk to you on the next episode .