1 Simple Concept That Made Us $100k in a Weekend | Ep 15

But if I had , if someone put a gun to my head and said what is the get rich quick scheme of gambling , I would say correlated parlays . Correlated parlays are part of every sharp bettors Arsenal . We actually have used them to make over a hundred K in one weekend . I'll tell that story later in the episode .

But what I want to stress here is , although correlation sound could sound intimidating or confusing at first , it's not really . You don't actually have to know any math really behind correlation To at least use it to make your betting better .

And I'm gonna make sure that I do this episode In a way where you don't have to get out of pen and paper , you don't have to break out your calculator .

I'm just gonna do this way where , if you just listen to this episode , you'll learn enough about correlation that you can take it into your next bets on prize picks , underdog and whatever and use it to get you know your results slightly better . Okay , first we have to define correlation .

Correlation is just a relationship , a statistical relationship between two variables . To put this into plain English , let's do a simple example .

One would say that the height of a child is correlated with the height of the child's parents and , to go deeper into it , that height of the child is what we would call positively Correlated with the height of its parents . That means the hot , the taller the parents on average , the taller the child .

And it's predictive , because if we know the parents height we would be more Accurately able to predict the child's height than if we didn't know the parents height . So that's a situation where the height of a parent is positively correlated with the height of that that parents child . There's also negative correlation . This would be more .

A good example of this would essentially be like price and demand the more expensive something costs , the lower the demand is for it on average . You know I don't I'm not an expert , I'm not an economist , but if you think about negative correlation , it means that as the price goes up , we can predict the demand will drop .

So you can use the price To predict the demand and we know an increase in the price should lower the demand positive correlation , negative correlation . And then , of course , there are situations that wouldn't be correlated at all , like the role of a dice and what the stock market does that day . Those events are not correlated .

So that's just the basics of correlation . And now let's talk about how we can use it in DFS to make more money . I recently wrote a tweet that said the three most important concepts to understand when playing prize picks etc . Are our correlation , implied house odds and correlation .

So the point of that tweet is it's impossible to understate how important correlation is to games like prize picks , underdog and the rest of the DFS pick em platforms . And correlation is so powerful because it's like this magic fairy dust that you can pour over that . You can sprinkle over five shitty bets .

You can bunch them together , sprinkle some correlation over them , put them in a five leg parlay and voila , you have a winning bet . It's literally like the opposite of the 2008 financial crisis . To understand how we can use this magic correlation pixie dust we have to understand how parlays work first .

So a parlay is the same thing as a power play on prize picks . In a power play , you need to win each player , you have to guess each player's prop correctly for the bet to win . So if you have a four pick power on prize picks and you hit three or four , you lose . It's the same thing as if you hit zero four .

When you're talking about a power or a parlay , what's important to keep in mind is that the one thing that you care the most about is winning all of the legs . There's nothing else that really matters . So you want to maximize your chances at winning all of the legs and you don't really care about getting a two out of four or three out of four .

Those don't matter . You just want to hit all four , or you know you can miss all four and that's the same thing as going three for four . So now you might be asking okay , I get it , I want to hit . You know . Obviously you want to hit all of your legs on a you know four pick power . You want to hit all four picks .

I know that I've played on prize picks . I know that if I don't hit all four they take my money . I know that seems so basic , but what I'm trying to first explain is that when we're talking about power plays , prize picks , underdog , anything that's not a flex or insured .

What we're talking about is the only thing that matters is hitting all of the legs , and what you're trying to solve for it's not . You're not even trying to solve for winning each individual leg , you're not . You're trying to solve for hitting four for four on a four X power , five for five on a five X power . You're trying to solve for hitting everything .

And this is where correlation can come in and you know it can aid you beyond your initial research into picks that you think will hit . So I'm gonna give a really basic example now in sports , where this wouldn't even be allowed on prize picks .

But I'm just gonna , I'm gonna give you this example and then we'll dive into my , our big weekend in golf , where we use , you know , a little , a little more advanced correlation to really take down Caesar's Palace .

Let's say , prize picks allowed you to bet two players from the same team , right , and you had Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and you , for some reason , patrick Mahomes was offered at over under 0.5 passing touch outs . And then you had Travis Kelsey , offered at over under 0.5 , receiving touchdowns .

So for those of you who don't know this , travis Kelsey and Patrick Mahomes are on the same team . Mahomes is the quarterback he throws to Kelsey . So basically , every time Kelsey catches a touchdown it's thrown by Mahomes . So on their own , let's just say each bet is a bad bet . So let's say each bet doesn't make money .

But let's say prize picks , let you put them in a two-pick power and if you win you get three times your money . Well , let's say , travis Kelsey is 40% to catch a touchdown , but 100% of the time he catches a touchdown from Mahomes . Now he's essentially 40% to catch a touchdown from Mahomes . That two-pick power is 40% to hit and it pays out 3x your money .

Now that's a great bet and that's the power of correlation within betting . But since that's an option that's not available to us , you have to be a little more imaginative when finding the correlation available .

But this is an example to show you just point blank what correlation can do , and then we'll talk into a little more nuance about how to go and find correlation in the sport you follow or some more subtle forms of correlation . Okay , here's the story about how we won 100k in one weekend just using correlation .

So this was last year actually at this point , and Caesars had just put out golf stroke numbers . And I'm okay to talk about this now because they do not allow this type of bet anymore . Shocker , they actually stopped allowing it after this weekend .

So what happened was they put out golf score bets so you could bet over or under on the score of a golfer that day . What Caesars also allowed was they allowed you to parlay over and under from those golfers scores together .

So , for example , I could bet Rory McElroy over 68.5 , parlay it with John Rohn over 68.5 , parlay , do a third leg , scotty Shuffler over 68.5 , and so on and so on and so on . Now why was this valuable to us ? Well , in golf , of course , can play hard , it can play easy . If the wind blows , then everybody's going to play worse .

If there's no rain for a couple of days leading up to the tournament , it's firm people are going to play worse . If it rains , people are going to play better . A lot of different things can happen , but essentially , in golf , of course , can play hard , it can play easy .

So in this situation we said well , if it plays hard , everybody is going to have a much higher chance at going over their number . So what happens is if John Rohn goes over his number well , it's more likely than that Rory McElroy will go over his number .

And if those two go over their number , it's even more likely Scotty Shuffler will go over his number , because the more people go over their number , the more likely it is . The course is playing hard . So what we did is I remember sitting there all day just trying to click in as many parliases as I could with Overs on golf .

I think what we were doing Overs , we might have been doing Unders . I kind of think we might have been doing Unders because I remember we were weirdly rooting for Jordan Spieth to make a birdie somewhere , but he did and we always lose to Jordan Spieth .

But anyway , I remember Just all day when you see a spot like this , this is kind of a side piece of ice . When you see a spot like this , you have to just absolutely bury them . These spots , they come around once a year , twice a year . When you find a really , really good spot , you have to be absolutely ruthless and just go in for the kill .

So I sat on my computer all day just clicking and clicking and clicking in parliates . They would reject , reject , reject , and then they would accept , and then they would reject , reject , reject , accept . I would just sat there until the tournament started .

All I did was try and bet parliates and deposit more money into my Caesar's account everything and of course it turned out really , really well . We won six figures that weekend just from these parliates , and then they cut the bet off .

But even though the Caesar's isn't taking those bets and even though you might not bet golf , there's probably a situation in the sport that you like where there definitely is , where there's a correlation available . So I'm going to go over a couple of simple ones and then we'll wrap it up with a little bit of a review . Okay , so football season is here .

Football has a lot of correlation . Obvious correlation was like the example we talked about before with Mahomes and Kelsey . Mahomes passing touchdowns are heavily correlated with Kelsey receiving touchdowns . That also can extrapolate out into passing completions and receptions .

Passing yards , receiving yards the higher of running backs rushing yards , the lower that running backs quarterbacks passing yards will be . Wide receivers and quarterbacks on opposite teams have positive correlations in their passing games . The game of football and I'm not a football expert , but the game of football , as you know is very intricately interwoven .

There's game scripts that you can probably think about to think about correlation . There's obvious teammates where you have a quarterback throwing to a receiver or a running back stealing carries from another running back , whatever it is . There's a lot of situations in football where you can find these correlations .

So what I would do if I'm you because there is a way to quantify correlation , but that's not what this episode is about . What this episode is about is about how to use it to just bump that extra , give yourself that extra little edge .

How I like to do it for football and this is a good example , because I am not a football expert , I'm not a football handicapper , whatever so this is what I like to do in football is I'll find some lines that are off on the DFS sites from a book like Pinnacle , and what I'll try and do is I'll try to find lines that are off and correlated .

So I know that I have two things working for me , and once I feel like I have those two working for me , I feel comfortable enough putting the slip in for the NFL and then going from there .

So I'm not as confident in just looking at Pinnacle and saying , oh , this is a good play , but if I can get both Pinnacle and correlation , put them together Now look here . I am a golf fetter , but I can profitably bet on NFL . This also goes for basketball Players .

Three points might be a set , you know , or players points might be correlated with their point guards , assists , rebounds probably negatively correlated . If you have two centers , one center's rebounds will be negatively correlated with the other center's rebounds on the opposite team , something like that .

There's plenty of more situations I don't even know about because I am a golf specialist at the end of the day , but correlations allow me to get out and find edges on other sports without having to model them . And that's what , without going into depth about correlation , that's what we can take away today and just immediately add to our DFS pick-up game .

I hope that was a good overview of correlation and how it can help you in your

game . I do think right now , correlation is probably the biggest weakness these sites like PrizePix have . So if this episode interested you and you want to hop in the Discord to ask some more questions about how we would calculate correlation with golf or more in-depth discussion , please feel free to do so .

But what I hope this episode did is gave you some actionable steps you can take literally this week with whatever support you like to bet on and just give yourself that extra edge , add that extra tool to your toolkit . So anyway , happy to share this lesson with y'all . Please hop into the Discord again .

Like I said , we're having a blast in there and it's growing every day . It's 100% free and we're giving out picks , advice , just general community vibes . So hop in , join us and I'll see you on a later episode .