545. Burnham Beats Reform: Britain’s Next Prime Minister?

in May, spell the end of the Starmer Premiership, how has it come to this and what happens next? Also, what does the big win for the Tories in Aberdeen South against the SNP mean for the UK and Scottish Government's policies on energy? it was quite a night in British politics. This episode is brought to you by Fuse Energy.

This is uh something right against the national trend. So as you um I'm sure are gonna get on to, Aberdeen South, as you mentioned, is now Labour went down nineteen points and it went Down eighteen points in our breath, but it went ten points up in this constituency with Andy Burnham.

And he basically wiped out the Greens, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. The Greens, the Lib Dems got about one percent, Conservatives got about two percent, and even restore and reform together wouldn't have been enough to beat him. So it's looking very, very strong. There are some caveats around the corner, but pretty strong. Back over to you.

in Makerfield. But listen, I was talking to people in the campaign last night and even late on they were they were very confident Andy Burnham was going to win, but they were worried that a a win might be tainted if restore votes, the far, far right party. ate into reform the just right very right wing populist party and that became a deciding factor. But it wasn't needed because as you say, fifty five percent of the vote meant they didn't get near.

I mean ch checking if you've historical f uh f footlow story, you've got to go back to the time when I was one year old. Torrington nineteen fifty eight, Mark Bonham Carter won for the Liberals, for a bigger differential turnout from a general election to a by election.

Um, you would have looked at three things. You would have said, Well, it's a by election, probably go a bit anti government, probably lower turnout and then you would have looked at the local elections in May and you would have said Labour was trading twenty twenty points behind reform. And remember, of course, in the background is this by election Gorton and Dent, which they didn't let Andy Burnham run in, and which Labour lost.

Uh, and you know, there were a lot of people at time saying, Oh, there's nothing to say that if he had run, if the NEC had allowed him to run, he really would have won. I think the evidence I would suggest points to the idea that he probably would have won big there too. Back over to you.

And as you say, Andy Burnham more than doubling Labour's share of the vote. And this seat, by the way, uh, I'm indebted to Peter Kellner for this, I'd forgotten this, but this seat was the sixth had the sixth highest reform vote in the last general election. So I guess what MPs are seeing and thinking about this morning is this, that there is a way to stop reform. I've always felt that there is two, but they're thinking Andy Burnham may be essential to that way. So the pressure

On Kier's Tharm is huge. There's no doubt about that. The numb you know, numbers matter in politics. Polls come and go, but these are real numbers, and the truth is Andy Burnham has done better than expected. So then we ask what happens now? And the truth is nobody knows. I've talked to a lot of people, I've talked to a lot of the key people. Um as late as Wednesday, Keir Starmer was gathering in MPs and telling them, whatever the result, if there is a challenge, I'm going to fight it.

His one public response so far is a social media post. We're recording this, uh, you know, in the morning of uh after the by election. is a social media post saying voters chose Labour's campaign of hope and optimism over oc over division and hate. But of course if you've been to Makerfield you might see that at all the billboards at all the posters around there it doesn't say Labour, it says Andy.

So all depends now what these key figures decide to do. I don't believe Andy Burnham wants to make that challenge. But he will make clear, if they do have a conversation, that he's got the numbers if that is needed. And the truth is, you know this in politics, MPs can be very herd like. those MP those numbers are likely to be growing. I don't think he'll do m I very much doubt we'll see him much over the media, other than maybe going for a run or having a pint or whatever he might do.

um because he'll be waiting to see what unfolds the same as everybody else. So key to this Keir Starmer's reaction, key also West Streeting's reaction, but I think to some extent I suspect this takes West Streeting pretty much out of the game. And if I had to put my life on it, I think Andy Burnham is

Labour MPs can behave in illogical ways like anyone else. But if I keep coming back to two drums that I've been banging, the first is Keir Starmer cannot win the next election. The guy For his many merits, there are many things that are, you know, likable about Kirstama, he's just no good as a Prime Minister. He's not a winning phenomenon. His net popularity is terrible. He can't make a speech.

He doesn't have any clear definition. I can't find anyone in any meeting I go to who can tell me what his economic policy is, what his growth policy is, what he stands for. So my analogy's always been, look, with Keir Sama, it's a losing proposition. The ship's heading into the iceberg. Now getting off and getting on the lifeboats may not work, Andy Bernard may not work, but there's no

serious alternatives of staying with Starman. The second thing I think we've been saying is that if Burnham wins well, and he's won really well here. It's answered the number one big question in politics, which is can you take on reform? And and what I love about it. to to sound like a bit of an Andy Burnham fanboy for a moment, is that he's not done it in the way that some of the people advising the Conservative Party would have said is the only way of beating reform.

He's done it with a pretty decent, straightforward campaign. He hasn't done any crazy I mean, there's lots of temptations. If you're taking on reform in a constituent, imagine the pressure on you. to think, well I can just you know, I can sound a little bit more right wing and radical. I can steal a little bit of reform's language here. I can surprise people because I can count on my Labour vote and I can bring over reform by

He hasn't done that. He it was a pretty sunny I mean sorry, uh on the ground it w it felt very nasty, but the way Burnham's conducted himself. Has been pragmatic, progressive, laid back, and he's won big. And I think that's the recipe for British politics. I I think what Starmer

got wrong was that he lost that sense of being a happy warrior. He lost the sense of being able to communicate well, having a sense of hope, and that actually Morgan McSweeney was the kind of worst of all worlds if what he was doing is saying the way to beat reform is to on certain issues sound like a kind of mini reform without being able to sound the more optimistic notes back over you.

And they said that we could never do it, and I did it. The economy actually was beginning to pick up a bit until Donald Trump did his stupid bloody war in Iran. Reform have made their numbers rise on the back of small boats and immigration and actually we've done some pretty tough things and we and we're getting the numbers going the right way, the National Health Service numbers are going the right way. There's lots that he can point to.

The trouble is as you say, when you're out and about, and I'm the same as you, I'm always talking to people about what they think. And even people who have often benefited from Labour government policy changes aren't even necessarily aware that they've happened. And that is that is a sort of political communications issue. The other reason he'll be feeling angry, but this works both ways, and I think, you know,'cause obviously a lot depends now on how these two deal with each other.

The fact is there is next to no trust between them, and that is a problem, and that's a political failure. I remember quite a long time ago being up in Manchester uh I mean it was after Kia Starman became leader, but before he became Prime Minister.

I remember seeing Andy Burnham and him saying, Oh God, the way these guys operate, if you if unless you a hundred percent echo everything they say, you get stuff through the press, blah, blah, blah. Kears talk to Keir Starmer's people and they'll say bloody Andy Burnham is impossible to deal with

anything you do he trims a little bit this way, trims a little bit that way. But the truth is that trust has broken down. Now I think it is possible you know, we talked about this and and and I think I got it wrong about the the the Gordon and Denton

thing when I actually thought I could see why Keir Starmer was getting the national executive to block Andy Bernard from standing. I think it's possible that back then He might have been able to say, Andy, you show you can win, win, come in and I'll give you a big job in the cabinet and then let's see how things go. I'm afraid I think the process around then is the reason why Keir Starmer apparently not having said to Andy Burnham, Why did you come into the cabinet?

if you get into the in in back into Parliament, Andy Burnham is making clear no. And in his acceptance speech, he had this line, you know, we'll get no second chance. Um now that's a deliberate way to s to accept you can't change your Prime Minister every five minutes like the Tories did, but he's basically saying, I am your second chance. So this really is hard, brutal politics now. He's going to arrive in Parliament on Monday. He's going to take his seat.

Does Keir Starmer sit in parliament for that? Uh does he kind of, you know, smile happily? And of course he's he's not bound to set a timetable for his departure, but that is basically what Andy Burnham and those who are supporting are going to be asking for.

So if you've tried to exclude and destroy Andy Burnham and stop him coming in once and you failed, you you can't then hope to control him when he comes in the second time. I think the other thing is that all those stories about anger sound absolutely identical to Joe Biden. I mean I mean almost phrase by phrase what she said there, you know. Number one, you know, I was the guy that beat Donald Trump and I'm not going to give credit for the fact that I brought the Democrats in.

Uh number two, the only reason this thing is going wrong is because of these MAGA guys. Number three, you know, they're it they're getting support because of immigration, but I I'm doing stuff on immigration, you know, I've I've I'm almost identical to Republicans on immigration.

All that is understandable, but the reason it sounds like Joe Biden It's it's the anger of somebody who is trying to cling on when the party in the country knows they can't win the next election and they need to be got rid of. And and their anger is that people aren't being grateful towards them. But that's not legitimate in a football manager or a CEO or a Prime Minister. Right? You're not there for the gratitude. You're there to win.

and you can't win. And and and like Biden, the longer this dude clings on, the worse. Because once you've lost it There's no point being a sort of lame duck, Prime Minister or President.

Andrea Ledsom fell out and she basically just came through. I'm less worried than you are by this idea of people knocking bits off each other. I think it can be quite healthy. Uh let's my counterexample. So when I was running against uh in in that leadership in twenty nineteen, of course everybody in the Conservative Party was saying, Could you leadership candidates stop attacking each other? This is very bad for our brand. Everybody hates us attacking each other.

But the reality is that Boris Johnson came out of a pretty brutal campaign where we were all knocking bits off each other and won big. And I think people sort of understand. Uh that that can happen.

There is another story that Labour needs to get its head around and I think Andy Burn needs to answer, which is is there a radically different economic policy that a centre left party could pursue? Could they have a different energy policy? Could they have a different tax policy? Could they have a different innovation policy? What calls is he gonna make on tech? non-doms

So it's a kinda risk. It is a risk uh both ways. And also what's interesting, when you were going through all the sort of policy on this, policy on that, will he change this, will he change that? I know s a couple of times the Conservatives got away with resisting the pressure of saying, Look, if you change your prime minister you have to have a general election.

we shouldn't underestimate the pressure that there will be b and and with a with a media that is gonna be the the the ma if if if Andy Burnham does replace Keir Starmer, the massive hostility of most of the right wing media to Keir Starmer translates automatically. the sort of Russian propaganda, et cetera, operations that have been running and of which we've learnt more in in recent times, are they going to transfer?

So he's got to have in him, he's obviously got confidence. I agree with you about the nature of his campaign. I'd have been very tempted running that campaign to have taken all sorts of lumps off reform. really tried to have made Farage and crypto and all that stuff, really tried to get in there and he resisted all that. Um but I think in getting democratic legitimacy On the back of one by election of sixty thousand voters whatever it is.

Is I think it's a stretch. So, but uh you know, if I again if I had to put my life on it, we're living in such pr unpredictable, volatile times. But Uh my money at the moment probably would be if he is going to be Prime Minister in the next few months on a on a coronation. My son Rory's just sent me a thing Betfair has him ninety four percent to be the next Prime Minister. Uh that's th th that means Roy that you don't want to don't do a

P Kamala Harris style bet on that one, please. Just don't just don't do it. Um You mentioned there the the the other thing that that I think is really significant out of this violation, and which won't, I don't think, get the maybe the debate that it that it should.

I've been saying to you for some time that I think we are through peak reform, and I know that's counterintuitive because they keep coming top in the polls, but I think reform have a ceiling. Um and I think some of this stuff, I think the money stuff has damaged Farage. I think the Russia stuff does damage Farage. I actually think that the Genric Braverman Zahwe, these Tory retreads

coming over and suddenly being the big figures in the in reform. And as if we're so stupid as to hear John Jenrich talk about immigration when he was the immigration minister responsible for some of the disasters that he now says are disasters. And an interesting thing, we have James Cleverly on leading this week. I I noticed him he last night posted a couple of by elec council by elections in Essex.

Which reform won in the local elections, they've had by elections for presumably'cause the candidates have thought, Oh, I didn't expect to win, I don't want to do it and they've now lost and they've gone back to the Conservatives. So I think this is really bad for for reform. Farage will do his usual thing. I bet he goes to the ground for a bit.

But he'll hope all the focus is on the Burnham r rather than him. So Roy, let's take a break and then we come back we'll talk about this election in Aberdeen South. Very, very interesting. Tories beating the SNP and also we'll maybe focus on some of the challenges that Andy Burnham would face. If he does, replies Keystammer.

The Tories continue to try to chase chase the reform on the right. So you might have looked at that election and you could actually say this is the death knell for the Conservatives. This is the moment at which they become like Francois Hollande's Socialist Party in France or this is the moment where the Canadian Conservatives are wiped out because it's so bad. And then as you say, up in Aberdeen South, astonishingly, uh, the Conservatives just won a seat.

against the SP turning round the general election result, and Kemi Badknock's net popularity rating is going up. And again, there's going to be a huge debate within the Conservative Party. Some people will say it doesn't matter what her net popularity rating is, look what happened in Makerfield. She got no vote.

And of course, many people will say it doesn't really matter for Scottish Conservatives. Um, other people will try to spin it as a positive result. But it's partly about energy too. I noticed and I'm gonna push back to you on this because I I we keep having this conversation, but

Um, our mutual hero Janus Garstore, the wonderful Norwegian uh leader, has just come out saying he wants to drill in the Arctic. And he's quite rightly said, Listen, this is completely crazy. We're talking about energy security. We can't rely on Russian gas. We've realized because of straight a four moves we can't rely necessarily on Middle Eastern gas. We don't want to be completely in hocke to Donald Trump's gas.

And we need gas, desperately need gas, because in most countries, unless you're lucky enough to have huge amounts of hydro, you need gas to back up your renewables. So we need to drill for sovereign reasons, not price reasons. This is what's so irritating about this discussion with Eb Miliban. It's not about the gas price, it's about sovereignty. It's about having your own supply.

And and I think that's basically the argument that's been run in Aberdeen South successfully by the Conservatives against the SP. With Labour collapsing.

Uh as much as, if not more, by who do I not want to win as who I want to win. There's no doubt Nigel Farage has his following. But he has a lot of people who cannot even begin to stomach the idea that he might actually become Prime Minister. And I think that's a very powerful motivation to vote Andy Burden, even if you're a Tory.

And then I think there was a bit of that in in Scotland. But there's n listen, there's no doubt the uh Douglas Lumsden, the Conservative candidate, and he was and Kemi Baid not went up there a few times as well. They were fighting on a kind of oil and gas, uh, you know, we've d we've taken enough damage to the oil and gas industry campaign.

Um, Labour were never gonna win this. This has always been Tory SNP battleground, but it will make I think both UK and Scottish Government understand that the politicization of this debate is, you know, it has the potential to be a problem. We should say, by the way, to our listeners, we're doing something a bit different on question time next week, because Rory and I have been arguing a lot about energy policy recently.

We're going to have on for a special question time a wonderful guy by the name of Dan Jurgensen. He's Danish but he's the European Commission Energy Commissioner. He knows the energy world inside out. So we're going to be looking for your questions over the weekend and then doing that next week. But yeah, no, th listen, there's no doubt, big focus today will be on Andy Burnham and Makerfield.

But I I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kemi Badenock, if she isn't already, is on a flight to Aberdeen to try to get the focus the focus on that. And then the other one in our broath was uh an SNP SNP hold. Is it

Um so I don't know is the answer, but I d I do think the kind of chipping away at Farage with a media that doesn't really focus on these scandals in the way that it would if it was a a Labour politician or in Scotland an SNP politician. I think it is chipping away. I I actually think the Russia thing is beginning to trouble people.

um about Farage and the you know, the fact that um i they don't they didn't even come out and condemn the the the Russian involvement in the attacks on Kirstarmer. Kev Kemi Badenok did.

Um I y what you said earlier by the way about Morgan McSweeney, Labour Strategy, Burnham v v and Starmer vis a vis reform, I wonder if this isn't the moment where Kemi Badenock also has to understand or face up to the idea that actually for her to think that it's all about competing on the Farage, Rupert Low Space, is not the way to build.

uh a bigger base than she than she now has. So we'll see on that. Roy, one other interesting interesting observation which I think you'd be particularly interested in. So we're in Paris at the moment'cause we're about to go and do an interview with Gabriel Zuckmann, the tax guy. Um but I was just thinking, Chirac

Sarkozy, Hollande, all were mayors before going on to be president. Edouard Philippe is currently a mayor and he may be the guy who's the sort of main contender against the Rassemblement National.

And Scheinbaum in Mexico and Renzi in Italy, I just wonder if there's another important thing here is that the mayor or the the the the mayor elected mayors that you know we brought in that that has become a new independent power base outside of the Westminster world, that if you're big and bold and ruthless, which clearly Andy Burnham has showed himself to be, then that's a different route into the top. I thought that was I think that's quite interesting

come across more as a CEO in a world in which everybody feels that ministers are totally paralyzed by process and law and nobody's sure who's in charge, you can be out on the ground. And I think that when politics is uh riven by lack of trust Your best route is probably being a mare because you are actually out on the ground endlessly meeting people, interacting with them on the street. They're seeing you face to face.

And you can be non political. I think that's the final thing. I mean the the genius

hold on to what he's found. He's a much, much better mayor than he was a member of the Westminster Parliament. And the question is, has that changed him permanently or is he gonna revert back and be sucked back into the Westminster game, or can he keep some of that confidence and energy?

maybe to end on and also I'll I I've just been somebody's just sent me Nigel Farage's reaction. I'll give you that in a minute. It's interesting how you there saying he's very non tribal and et cetera, et cetera, and non divisive, but in a way Those people who feel very, very loyal to Keir Starmer are going to be sitting there thinking thinking, how can you even say that? He's exploited divisiveness and tribalism to you know to get where he is.

I I remember when we were interviewing Keir Sama, Rachel Reeves, Bridget Phillipson before the election, I got a real sense that these were people who were very, very uncomfortable with Tories. Whereas when I interviewed Andy Burnham, I didn't feel that at all. I felt he was good humoured, he was quite sort of broad minded, he was able to So so so why does why does he seem tribal within the party when he s doesn't seem tribal outside the party?

But not pushing it so far that people say, Well, hold on a minute, that's not in Labour's Manifesto. You need your own mandate. And the other thing he'll do to signal change is to make cabinet changes. He would do that now. That creates enemies, that creates division, that creates

walked out in disgust and horror. He took the party in a radically different direction, and he did it successfully. Now it turned out that he was defeated by his own lack of focus, lack of morality, lack of clarity. But what he did prove is that People want change and Andy Burnham needs to have change and the worst thing that Andy Burnham could possibly do is, you know, keep Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, keep Bridget Phillips in an education.

I think if he was bold and this will be really difficult for him, but I think it would be very interesting to move Ed Miliband to another really serious great office of state position, maybe out of energy, would signal something interesting.

um added to which that some of the process is already underway. There's already kind of some of the preparation for that. So look, it is going to be really, really fascinating. It's all depending in the next bit on Keir Starmer's actual reaction, I don't just mean a post, I mean what he's actually thinking and actually planning and thinking he might do, and then and then the others. And of course MPs and ministers who are going to be chattering away to each other all over the weekend.

and supportive. I mean there's nothing to be gained by him being grumpy, bitter, angry and chippy about the whole thing. I mean it may in be inevitable given his personality and the situation, but It's not really in his interest, Labour's interest or the country's interest for him to approach it like that.

there's something different to most people inside the politician that makes them not always see things in a way that a conventional wisdom might be forming to see them. And that's that's just why I think we're We're we're still in kind of nobody quite knows what happens next territory.

what is beyond doubt is that Andy Burnham has taken a big bowl risk. And also that the other thing to remember or you don't forget there's now a by election for the Manchester Meralty. Andy Burnham who will be enjoying his triumph today, what he can't do is then be held responsible for something terrible. Although I don't think it will, if Labour get their act together on the back of this, I think Labour should be able to to find the right candidate and to hold that.

Not a given, far from a given. Let me just tell you, I said before we go, Rory, and we go and talk to Gabriel Zuckman. Should we do it in French or English? Which do you prefer?

So there you are. I think that's good that he's disappointed because I think deep down maybe he knows that uh there is a way to beat reform, um and he's just taken a bit of a beating. And don't forget they're lost in Cairphilly. uh to Plyde. They lost in Han uh Gordon and Denton to the Greens.

Uh and now they're lost to Labour. So it underlines that point I made earlier. There is a very large body of opinion that thinks the idea of Nigel Farage being Prime Minister is truly horrific and we have to try to stop it.

And and I mean increasingly disturbing and brutal. I don't care that everybody listening to me who's on the Tory side is now flirting with reform. Look at the kind of stuff that these people are posting. Look at what they're saying. Look at People like Elon Musk getting in behind them. I think there is an incredible opportunity if Burnham holds the ground.

to unite people and inspire people again. And I was so sad that Keir Starmer failed to do it. And he failed to do it'cause they were too small minded, they were too labour, they were too bitter, they were too anti Tory, they were too ungenerous in the way that they talked about things. Burnham really, I think, can do it, but he's just gotta hold on to the Burnham of Manchester and not become the Burnham of sort of twenty ten Westminster.

Okay, and just before we finish, Rory, bit of housekeeping. Given we've done this Make a Field episode today, Who Funds Reform, episode four, which was due out today, will be out next Friday. Sign up at thrustpolities.com. Catch up on the first three episodes and be ready for episode four when it drops on Friday, and you may or may not be pleased to know a lot of it is about Nigel Farage and his funding. See you then.