513. Inside Iran: The Country Trump Cannot Control? (Question Time)

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Welcome to the Restless Politics Question Time with me, Rory Stewart. And me, Alistair Campbell. And today we've done something rather unusual, which actually Alistair deserves credit for, which is that he said rather than the two of us uh answering endless questions on a RAM, we might actually get A genuinely deep Iran expert. So we've got my friend Kareem Sajadpur, who is himself obviously originally of Iranian descent, but has been the leading analyst at

The International Crisis Group, and then again more recently, the Carnegie Endowment. He is somebody who understands Iran very well, but actually perhaps. Even more, he understands the US debate on Iran very, very, very well. He is going to be with us as we answer your questions. And my goodness, we have had hundreds of your questions. We are absolutely delighted to have you with us, Kareem. Rory and I have quoted your work in Foreign Policy Magazine many, many times in recent days a week.

Let's just kick off with where we are in terms of the theme of nationalism and Iranian public opinion more generally. Leo, why are the Iranian people so split in their opinion of this war? Mattia, why do we see so little or no sign of uprising? Is this Iranian regime control of the rally around the flag effect? And Iris Sairam asks a similar question. start with that. It's great to be with both of you. And those are uh very important questions which to be honest are not

easy to answer because we don't have good polling inside Iran like uh under any authoritarian regime and now an authoritarian regime in a state of war. A lot of what we we get is anecdotal but Um what what I would share is that first of all your the the questions from your listeners are absolutely right that Iran is one of the most nationalistic populations on earth. It's a population which feels proud of its very ancient history.

And that nationalism can take you in multiple different directions because you could say that, you know, Iran should be a great nation. In my view, it should be a G twenty nation. It has the human resources, the natural resources, the history. To be one of the world's 20 wealthiest nations, but under the Islamic Republic, it's a pariah. And therefore, for Iran to fulfill its potential, you need to get rid of the Islamic Republic.

The nationalism could take you also in an opposite direction, to say no matter what you think of the regime, we're a sovereign nation and we oppose external intervention. I would argue, Rory, that Iran is a deeply polarized society these days, but in my view it's not polarized fifty fifty. It's polarized probably around eighty twenty, eighty five, fifteen, in that I would say around eighty, eighty five percent of the population is opposed to the regime.

The regime has a hardcore of fifteen to twenty percent support. And what we know from dictatorships is that what matters most is not the breadth of your support, but the depth of your support, meaning you don't need a majority. You just need a devoted minority that is armed and organized and willing to kill on your behalf. And so I suspect that that devoted minority has been reawakened in Iran the last few weeks.

I am skeptical that those who were opposed to the regime several months ago now are supporting it, but This goes to the second question. Why haven't we seen any popular uprisings? And the reason why is that people are under bombardment at the moment and they're just thinking about staying safe and they're not thinking about political mobilization. And the big question is what happens once the dust settles, whether that's one month from now, several months from now.

Are people then going to think about political mobilization or Is it a situation in which they believe that the regime is just too ruthless um to to be challenged in the in the near term, and they may look for opportunities in in the future? Um Julia Kellner asks, what do we need to understand about the new Ayatollah? And Vincenzo Maresca, at what point?

does decapitation of Iran's leaders start causing genuine systemic collapse? And I think what's interesting there was my sense, correct me if I'm wrong, is that the new Ayatollah It w in a sense is a product of Donald Trump and some of the things that he's been saying about, you know, it's got to be somebody that I approve of and we'll sort of and the Israelis saying they'll take out anybody that they don't approve of.

So is this a guy that you were surprised became the new Ayatollah? And what do we not know about him? And if I can add one question to those from our listeners, should we be surprised that we haven't yet actually seen him physically speaking to his people? This episode is brought to you by Fuse Energy. Energy policy rarely stays in Westminster for long, usually arrives with a bill. And from the first of April, seventy five percent of renewables obligation costs will come off electricity bills.

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All very good questions. So Moj Saba Khamani is someone who was widely known to the Iranian public given that he was the son of the guy who ruled the country for 37 years, Ayatullah Ali Khamani, but he was not. heard nor was he seen. There's only really one grainy video of him which exists. So he always was someone who operated in the shadows. And he had long been in the conversation for succession, um, but I don't think it was a foregone conclusion that he would succeed his father.

until the father was assassinated. And I think that really uh helped his his chances pretty significantly because not only did he lose his father, he lost his his mother, uh he lost his wife. And the regime wanted to essentially continue with the status quo and was reluctant to to bring in someone uh new who would you know perhaps revisit the principles of of nineteen seventy-nine.

And so he obviously has inherited an almost impossible situation in that first he's injured. We don't know how badly he's injured. I've heard from people in Iran that. The injuries he suffered are not life threatening, but nonetheless he's been injured. He's obviously in probably great emotional distress, given he's lost much of his family. He's having to live underground and hiding because The Israelis are uh actively trying to assassinate him.

And he is someone who he's inexperienced. He's never really given a speech before a large audience and suddenly not only are ninety million Iranian eyes on him, but the world's eyes are on him. So I think he's inherited a very, very difficult situation. I would not predict that he is going to be Like a Mohammed bin Salman figure, someone who is going to be with us for many years to come. I'm a little skeptical that he has that within him. Now, the other question is.

Could a political decapitation lead to the regime's implosion? And you know, anything is possible. Uh certainly in the first three weeks of this war it seems much more from the outside that the regime has actually cohered and they've closed ranks around a common threat. You know, as they say, there's no factions and foxholes. You know, it's a regime which, despite its internal differences, recognized um that it's it's life is on the line and they need to project a unified front.

But once the war concludes, as I said, this will be a regime which inherits economic wreckage. Already before this war was virtually economically bankrupt. Its population largely despises it and it's one of the most sanctioned nations in the world. And now its neighbors largely despise it because it's been going after its neighbors in the Persian Gulf the last few weeks. So It's not for me a foregone conclusion that

six months from now, a year from now, they'll be able to continue onwards with the status quo. But I think basically they have a few options. Number one is retrenchment. We saw that um with Saddam Hussein after the ninety one Gulf War. There's a possibility of implosion as we saw in the case of Milosevic after a military humiliation.

And then what we saw in Vietnam was after years of putting dogma before interests, over time the regime adapted. But that was a multiple-year process, and you know that is also possible in Iran. Karim, one of the other

um scenarios you talked about in an an article that we shared quite widely was a parallel that you saw possibly with the collapse of the Soviet Union, a period of instability, and then the reemergence in essence of Putin who represented, you know, the KGB at the heart of the old Soviet Union, re emerging after a few years as the new structures of a new authoritarian regime.

That's right, Rory. That was one of the uh an essay I wrote last fall in Foreign Affairs looking at five plausible scenarios for post Khamini Iran and and um that was obviously before uh Khamini was assassinated, but I've long thought that perhaps the best parallel with the Islamic Republic of Iran is the Soviet Union, and that um, you know, two deeply dogmatic regimes, but not suicidal regimes. They want to stay in power, but they've consistently put revolutionary ideology before

the national interests of its population. In Russia, similar to Iran, is a is a resource rich economy. And so I could easily see a scenario whereby the Islamic Republic simply is incapable of of putting interest before ideology. And when they eventually try to do that, like Gorbachev did, it doesn't actually prolong their shelf life, but it it hastens their collapse.

And what we saw in the Soviet Union was, you know, a period of a power vacuum and um a a great wealth disparity between these emergent oligarchs and everyone else. And you could See that scenario also in Iran. You know, unfortunately authoritarian collapses and power vacuums are are not filled by moderate intellectuals usually. You know, just as there was very few people who were

interested in being ruled by a mid-ranking KGBA joint when they were protesting the Soviet Union. Well, Vl Vladimir Putin was someone who uh understood how to mobilize power. And likewise in the Iranian context, It could well be someone who emerges who is an alum of the security forces or the revolutionary guards who

understands how to mobilize power. Even though, as I said, if there was a free and fair vote, I don't think that's what people would vote for in Iran. What happened in the Russian context, to really simplify, is that Putin throws out communism replaces it with grievance driven Russian nationalism. And that also can be a potent tool, uh, in the Iranian context, uh uh nationalism.

That nationalism, as I said, can take you in multiple different directions because you could try to harness a a grievance driven anti-American nationalism as Putin has. But in my view, Iran historically, in contrast to Russia, has actually been a partner to the West. Whereas, you know, Russia, China, they always see themselves as great powers in competition with America. Historically, Iran has sought

to have the United States and Europe as as a partner against its more uh predatory neighbors to the north like Russia. And so in my view it's not a foregone conclusion that um The next stage, whatever comes after the Islamic Republic will inherently be anti American because in my view it's in the

I got an email this morning from somebody called Gillian Curtis. She said you and Yerori said on the podcast That Donald Trump was surprised that Iran attacked America's Gulf allies. I wasn't, and I'm a 17-year-old student. Were you surprised that Iran reacted in the way that they did? Not at all, because they had telegraphed that that's what they were going to do. They telegraphed that on several occasions. Ayatul Khamani said that they're going to regionalize this war if they're attacked. So

They made good on that promise. And I think the logic of their attacks are several fold. their their hope was that they were going to attack these Gulf countries whose leaderships are very close to the United States, to President Trump in particular, whether that's the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. and that those countries would go to President Trump immediately and say, Please stop this war. You know, I don't think that that has actually played out as they anticipated, but

Another logic for their attack on their um Gulf neighbors was obviously to spike the price of oil. And they have succeeded in spiking the price of oil. They've succeeded in largely closing down the Strait of Hormuz, which everyone now knows is a is a key energy thoroughfare for the global economy. And here, Alistair, their strategy has been to

really um negatively impact American public opinion. And they've been successful at this over the last decades. And I say it's one advantage that dictatorships have over democracies when fighting wars against one another, because Whereas dictatorships have contempt for their popular opinion, democracies and American presidents are much more sensitive to that. So we already see that perhaps three out of four Americans uh seem to be opposed to this war.

And this is very much part of Iran's strategy to continue to spike the price of oil. you know, a lot of explosions happening when people are watching their television sets and the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan is still in recent memory for most Americans. And so they want Americans to be asking their members of Congress and the White House

How are we getting ourselves into another quagmire in the Middle East? And I think Iran is is hoping that that is going to be the winning strategy for them. Is that they've gone quite so far with the Gulf States. I see your logic around oil, you know, attack oil facilities, but they've done much more than that. They've been shutting down Dubai International Airport, they've been attacking the financial centres.

They seem to be going much, much further in their attacks on the Gulf countries than they need to. In fact, all they really needed to do was control the Straits of Hormuz to drive up the oil price. Is that because at some level the regime actually really dislikes the Gulf states that there is some form of I don't know, suspicion of Arab allies of the US and that there's something more ideological going on there, that it's not just practical.

That's a hundred percent true, Rory. This is not just kind of a military tactic or strategy. it is also a reflection of a deep ideological antipathy toward these countries, in particular the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, because They have polar opposite visions for the Middle East than Iran. I think UAE has now been on the receiving end of over 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones.

um, Saudi Arabia a little bit less so. But if you look at those Gulf countries, they all have forward-looking visions. Saudi Arabia is called Vision 2030. uh UAE's is a version of of that vision twenty thirty one. And I I say Iran's vision is vision nineteen seventy nine. And you know, very different goals for the Middle East. Uh, Iran benefits from regional instability. Those countries need stability.

Iran's model is anchored in social repression. Those models are anchored in social progress. Um those countries, their their security packs are with The United States and Israel. You know, Iran's official slogans are death to America and death to Israel. So very, very different visions for the region. And In particular, the example of the UAE, United of Arab Emirates, I'm sure many of your listeners have visited places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

And Iran is quite striking. And and I really attribute this to the leadership of two different men. Um in the UAE, there was a a leader, the founder of the modern day United Arab Emirates was a guy called Sheikh Zayed. And the father of the 1979 revolution in Iran was Ayatollah Khomeini. And I say that these two men, Sheikh Zayed and Ayatollah Khomeini, in 1978 essentially went to the same elevator.

Sheikh Zayat pushed up and Khomeini pushed down. And the the gap between these two countries is truly enormous in that. Iran uh is five times the size of the UAE. It has perhaps ten times the population. Uh in the seventies its GDP was several fold that of the UAE. Now UAE, a much smaller country, has eclipsed Iran in terms of GDP, significantly eclipsed them in terms of GDP per capita.

the UAE has become a hub for international transport and uh finance and technology, and Iran is this global pariah. And so One of the lessons I learned, Rory, having lived in the Middle East several years, was living in Beirut uh two decades ago. And my big takeaway from my year in Beirut is that it takes decades to build and it takes weeks to destroy.

And those countries understand that they've put trillions of dollars into their uh business model. They want to build soaring cities, societies, economies. And they know, unfortunately, that Iran has the capacity with twenty thousand dollar drones. to come and and destroy or significantly disrupt everything that they've built. And for that reason, those countries are are really in a bind. But and I'll conclude here in saying that

One of the Iranian goals has been to kick America out of the Persian Gulf. And I think these attacks on the Gulf countries have actually. have just only uh further solidified and cemented the the need for uh that partnership that they have with America and their demand that America retain a significant presence in the Gulf to deter future Iranian attacks.

Okay, let's just stick with kind of military strategy. Alison Kennedy, is there any military logic to what the Americans and Israelis have done in bombing Carg Island. Can you explain what Karg Island is and what your reaction is to the attacks upon it over the weekend? So Karg Island is where Iran primarily exports its oil and so it's a it's a very key node of the Iranian economy. Oil exports, energy exports are the lifeblood of its economy.

It was essentially a move by President Trump to try to threaten the regime into opening up the Strait of Hormuz. And you know what I should emphasize here, Alistair, is that the Strait of Hormuz is this very narrow thoroughfare in the Persian Gulf. And the way that Iran is preventing safe passage in the past they would do that with mines in the sea that could potentially explode any passing ships, but

This time around, they've been doing it effectively with drones, essentially uh swarming and attacking ships. And, you know, you look at the uh economic asymmetry of this warfare in that. Uh these tankers, these large oil tankers are sometimes hundred million dollar tankers carrying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of cargo, of oil.

And they are being effectively threatened and disrupted and attacked by twenty thousand dollar Iranian drones. So Iran essentially right now is holding the global economy hostage. with far less resources obviously than the United States and I think w as we talked about, most of this

oil and it's not only oil, but it's also um natural gas and and fertilizer is not bound for Europe or the United States. It's primarily bound for Asia. And so the question for President Trump, the challenge is, you know, Can he bring in those countries like China and India?

South Korea to try to get those countries to help keep the strait open. Let's take a quick break, Kareem, and then we can come back for for many, many all questions. But thank you very much. And I think the first one we'll come back with is Sure. Now just a quick pause in the podcast to mention our sponsor, Nord VP.

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how you can feel and live at your best for years to come, head to join.woop.com slash TRIP and get started with Whoop today. You can sign up for a free 30-day trial so you can try Woop risk-free and see what you learn. Welcome back to the rest of this politics question time with me Rory Stewart. And me Anister Campbell and we are with Karim Sajpur who is an Iranian expert as you'll have I hope experienced so far. So Rory, where do you want to take us now?

Well, I was gonna come to what happens now and how the war will unfold. So Araz, what's Karim's best estimate of how long this war will last? Ishan Gayur, analytically speaking, not what he hopes, what do you foresee happening over the next six to twelve months? Lindsay Bennett. How does Karim see this ending? Can I just before you come in on that, just sort of I look at this and I think Israel and the US

are now actually in a bad situation. I mean effectively the regime has not been toppled, and Iran is demonstrating that it can completely destroy the economies of the Gulf and hold the Straits of Hormuz hostage. and they will fear that if they stop the war now, Iran essentially the regime emerges

in a stronger position because people will think, well, if you strike them again, they're gonna be able to destabilize the Middle East and hold the Straits of Homes hostage. And that will be an incentive for Netanyahu and Trump to keep pushing on to try to either topple the regime or somehow guarantee the straits can be open, but maybe those things are not achievable. So then I don't see how this thing comes to an end. Over to you. So let me first look kind of

six months out, uh, and then come back to the immediate term. And I don't think, Rory, that unfortunately there's going to be a resolution to this conflict because President Trump's goal was essentially to try to Changed the character of the Iranian regime. It wasn't only about degrading them militarily, which obviously the United States and Israel have done, but

to kind of end this forty seven year menace of the Islamic Republic of Iran chanting death to America and death to Israel. And that doesn't look like it's a near term possibility. And so What Iran wants to cease hostilities, among other things, they they want reassurances that the United States and Israel are not going to attack again.

But those assurances cannot be granted Iran so long as Iran is, as I said, not so much its hostility toward America but toward Israel, because Israel is within missile range of Iran. and it feels an existential threat from Iran's nuclear ambitions. And so I I think there's going to be no deterring Israel from potentially taking military action in the future.

so long as Iran's identity is premised on death to Israel and death to America. And so I don't see this conflict being resolved in the next year. Now, we could definitely see a a cease of of of hostilities. I think President Trump's challenge is that. In my view, this was not a war of necessity. It was a war of choice for President Trump. There wasn't

an imminent nuclear threat. There wasn't an imminent um uh missile threat. There was an imminent threat to President Trump's credibility because on nine occasions, last January, he f he warned the Iranian government that if they killed their protesters, America was going to intervene and support those protesters. And obviously we know that Iran

uh shredded President Trump's red line and they they killed up to thirty thousand protesters according to some estimates. So the reason why Trump intervened was a threat to his credibility, not an imminent threat to US national security. And what began as a war of choice, in my opinion, is essentially evolved into a war of necessity, in that I don't think that it's possible for President Trump to simply now end the war and say, okay.

We're good, we won when you have a pariah regime essentially holding the global economy hostage. And so it is a predicament. You're absolutely right, it's a predicament for the United States and Israel. From my vantage point, virtually every country here has been a loser, with the exception of Russia, which as its oil coffers have been significantly enriched over the last week.

And one could argue that um Israel's endgame is perhaps a little different than that of the United States, whereas the United States' goal was not to turn Iran into a failing state. Um that genuinely the the I think the the Trump administration's goal was something along the lines of Venezuela, or if not better. But I think Israel wanted to significantly degrade the Iranian threat.

Which has happened, and they are prepared to do as they say to to mow the lawn every several months to prevent Iran from from regrouping militarily.

There's a question here coming from Sarah. Why are the US and the West more broadly so bad at understanding the cultures of other countries? including Iran, what do we miss as a result? And can I just add to that, what what do you think we don't understand about Iran? Well There hasn't been any relationship between America and Iran since nineteen seventy nine. So forty seven years in which there's no US embassy in Tehran, no Iranian embassy in Washington and

There's not that much expertise on Iran in the senior ranks of the US government. Off the top of my head, Frankly Alistair. I don't know of a single person at the White House, Pentagon, State Department, or elsewhere who um has real expertise on your honor or has visited the countries. So that obviously is a challenge. What we're also talking about here is not just knowing Iranian culture or speaking the Persian language, but it's understanding the

ideological and strategic culture of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is very different than understanding uh Persian culture. I would say that someone asked me this question last fall, what have been the biggest mistakes that US and Western policymakers have made on Iran? And I would say there's two related mistakes. Number one, I think people overestimated the ability of this Iranian regime to reform. And when I say people that's been

primarily a critique of the left and academia, those who said that the Islamic Republic is is capable of changing its identity. Well, in forty-seven years it hasn't shown itself capable of changing its identity. But I'd say the other mistake is those primarily on the right side of the spectrum who have overestimated the perhaps the fragility of the Iranian regime. And if only we um increase the pressure or if only we decapitate their leader or attack the military,

Militarily, the entire system will collapse. And you know, that has also uh so far been proven incorrect. And so

That's why I've kind of over the years leaned on this idea of the the containment model, which worked vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. And it's listen, this is a I know it's very unsatisfying because in modern times we want to see a quick resolution, uh a a quick fix, which is either going to change the Iranian regime, which would in my view be in the interests of uh of the United States to have an Iranian government which represents the national interest of the country or

you know, even a democratic Iranian, that would be wonderful for the United States, for Britain. Or, you know, if we can't change them quickly, we want to do something which says, okay, um, let's just do a deal with them. You know, we're the problem. Let's just be nicer to them. But you can't normalize relations. With a regime which needs you as an adversary for its own internal legitimacy. And so that's why over the years I've kind of fallen back on this.

idea of a of the containment model which was just on that Kareem, was would you say that the JCPOA was a form of containment. Was that as close as we've got? as the West to being in a kind of broadly a right pos an okay position. So I supported uh JCPUA, which was a very uh polarizing issue in American domestic politics. Um, my critique of the way the JCPOA was managed was that in my view, Iran is not only a nuclear challenge. Uh at that time when the JCPOA was signed in twenty fifteen.

I believe there was three there needs to be three pillars of an Iranian strategy. One is certainly nuclear. You need to contain the nuclear ambitions. A second is the regional context. And regional context I mean their support for regional proxies like Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas, and also their use of drones and missiles.

And the third pillar of an Iran strategy, in my view, needs to be thinking about how do we advance the cause of change inside Iran. And this was somewhat similar template to our strategy towards the Soviet Union. President Reagan believed that um standing for freedom and and democracy was an important component of of challenging the Soviet Union. And I think that was that was proven right.

So my only critique of JCPUA was that I didn't believe that the entire strategy could only rest on one of those three pillars. Question from Alex from Oxford. To what extent does weakening the regime potentially make the former Iranian proxies more dangerous? You know, the counter to that is that most of these proxies are Significantly reliant on Iranian resources. And so, in the event that there is political change in Iran.

and a new Iranian government decides that supporting these regional proxies opposing Israel are not in the Iranian national interests, and that happens to be my view. You know, it may be that uh initially you start to see lashing out from some of these groups, in particular the Houthis of Yemen. But over time, when the mothership has been changed.

um that source of revenue will largely dry up. And I I don't really see any other country in the world um filling that financial vacuum that Iran pl uh uh fills for them. The question here that relates to something that Donald Trump has been saying and

then slightly walking back from it and then walking forward again and we don't quite know what he thinks. But I think that's what prompts his question from Zirian Aziz in Manchester. What is the likelihood that Kurds will be involved in a ground offensive in Iran, and are we likely to see an independent

Kurdish state any time soon. Just talk us through the whole un massive issue with the Kurdish U and in particular this this idea that was floating around for a few days as to whether the Kurds might be involved in some kind of ground campaign. Yeah, so just for context, um, even though the words Persian and Iranian are often used interchangeably, About 50% of Iran's population are ethnic Persians, and you have also other minority groups, like um, for example.

about a quarter of the population are are Turkic, Azeri. You have Iranian Arabs, Baluchis and uh Iranian Kurds. And Iranian Kurds constitute about ten percent of the country's population they're in the periphery along the borders with Iraq and Turkey and In my view, Iranian Kurds are wonderful part of Iran's uh population who have been disproportionately repressed, brutally repressed by this regime. So both politically and economically.

They've been significantly repressed and disenfranchised, and they have very, very legitimate grievances against the government. Now Kurds have large populations in four countries in that region, in Iran, in Iraq, in Turkey, and in Syria. But I would argue culturally, historically, linguistically Kurds are closer to Iranians than they are to Turks or to Arabs. And and for that reason, I think if Iran had a decent central government

Um, many Iranian Kurds are very happy to be part of Iran. The more brutal and repressive uh an Iranian government is, the more you will see separatist tendencies among Iranian Kurds and so As you said, Alistair, there was a moment of only a few days in which this idea was floated of America potentially coming in and arming or financing uh Kurdish groups. And the challenge there is that in my view the most potent opposition to the Iranian regime is is nationalism. The most potent opposition to um

kind of Islamist uh radicalism is is is Iranian nationalism and and what I call pluralistic Iranian nationalism. So it's not a kind of a chauvinist Persian nationalism, but a a pluralistic nationalism which encompasses, you know, Persians, Azedis, Kurds, Baluch, Arab, etcetera.

And the danger is that uh many Iranians are are sensitive about the country's territorial integrity. They really fear the Yugoslavia outcome of the country fracturing along ethnic lines and so when an outside power comes in and is, you know, allegedly or in reality

arming or financing different ethnic groups, you're gonna lose a lot of nationalists who who want to see the regime go. And so that is, in my view, um, you know, a dangerous uh strategy of playing with fire, but I do want to emphasize that um Iranian Kurds are a wonderful and critical and integral part of The fabric of Iran

And, you know, deserve a a much better role than they have now. Kream, as m my last question, I'm gonna be wicked and ask my own question. So Kreme, you you said something that you thought that the war was um was a war of choice that's now become a war of necessity. And the story seems to be that there wasn't any pressing reason

for the US to intervene two weeks ago, but now they've intervened, it's very, very difficult for them to leave this regime in place given the chaos it can cause for the whole world. But at the same time, you've also explained many reasons why

twenty percent or fifteen percent of the population, if they have deep enough support and are determined enough, can hang on for a very, very long time. And good reasons to question whether simply striking this regime from the air is actually going to get rid of them. So you seem to be suggesting it's a war of necessity, but it may be a war that the US and Israel can't win, in which case they need to accept that ought implies can. They don't have an obligation to do what they can't do.

And they need to stop trying to do the impossible. So the nuance I would add there, Rory, is when I say it we've gone from a war of choice to a war of necessity, that doesn't mean to imply that I believe that President Trump's metric for ending the war is is changing the regime. You know, that would be obviously a wonderful um outcome if it leads in a more positive direction. But I didn't believe before the war or even now that

as the last twenty five years of experience in the Middle East has shown us that the United States has the power to dictate political outcomes, uh, in the Middle East. And so, um What what I mean as a war of necessity is that I don't think he can the president can end this war

with Iran still essentially holding the global economy hostage by deciding which ships can go in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. I I think that challenge needs to be Um, I think that uh many of America's Persian Gulf partners also agree that that's not um the war can't be be ended like that. But you know, ultimately, I think about an observation that Kissinger made, I believe, when a conventional army is is fighting against uh guerrilla fighters. conventional military like the United States

If you don't win, you lose. And for the guerrilla fighters, if you don't lose, you win. And so I do think that when all is said and done, This war militarily was obviously uh won by the United States and Israel, but the the narrative war. It could well be that Iran is the winner because it survived having withstood this.

you know, incredible show of fire by the world's greatest superpower and the Middle East's greatest military power, Israel. Uh question here from Beth and Mallory. What is the real view of Russia and China of Iran?

So that is an important question because those two countries are commonly lumped together, Russia and China, and I actually believe they have different interests vis a vis Iran. The China Iran relationship, in my view, is pretty straightforward. Iran is an energy producer. Uh China needs energy and so their relationship up until now has been fairly transactional. Ninety percent of Iran's oil exports are bound for China.

And I actually think that a lot of Iran's conduct is not necessarily in Chinese interests. For example, The Chinese benefit from having stability in the Middle East in order to ensure the free flow of oil. And there's been no country in the Middle East which has been more detrimental to stability and the free flow of oil than Iran.

I also believe that if Iran really fulfilled its enormous potential as a nation, if it uh, you know, Iran should be uh a natural gas superpower. It has the second largest proven reserves after Russia. But it's not even top ten when it comes to exports because of its isolation. In nineteen seventy-eight, Iran was producing six million barrels per day of oil. Post-revolution, that the average number has probably been half.

So if Iran really fulfilled its enormous potential as an energy superpower and as a global market, in my view that's good for China. I don't think any of that is good for Russia. I think Russia benefits from Iran being a nuisance to stability in the Middle East because it increases the risk premium of energy.

Russia benefits from Iran being a thorn in the side of the United States. Russia benefits from a Iran which is isolated and not able to exploit its natural gas resources and compete with Russia and European gas markets. Russia benefits from an Iran, which isn't competitive with them in their historic sphere of sphere of influence, which is Central Asia. So even though we commonly lump China and Russia together on Iran, I actually think the two countries have have very different end games.

Hm. Final question from me, Kareem, and thank you so much for your time and your your insight. I think our listeners and viewers will really, really uh appreciate what your your contribution. But I think if we had one area where we had the most questions, i it's kind of in this area of what are the alternatives? What are the alternatives to what Trump and Israel have done?

Sarah, what would you say is a solution to the problems of Iraq of Iran besides foreign intervention? Sabina, do you think military intervention is the only way to achieve regime change in Iran. So I guess people just saying America, Europe, all saying Iran is a problem. So I guess that is that is the kind of question I think is most asked is how else do you try to get them to be less of a problem?

Well I think one of the most important tools in our toolkit as and I say this as the West, um both America and UK and Europe is our values, Western values of democracy, liberty, human rights. These were very important.

um tools which helped us prevail in the Cold War. And what I've seen over the years, certainly in DC and since the Trump second term, is that those great American institutions, whether it's places like you know, National Endowment for Democracy and Voice of America and institutions within the US government, whether that's Um within the State Department, USAID that

uh played important roles um during the cold war have essentially been, in the words of Anne Applebaum, unilaterally disarmed, or they've atrophied and It's my view that the US-Iran Cold War is not going to really end until you have a government in Iran which Either is representative of its population or at a minimum reflects the national interests of Iran rather than the revolutionary ideology of 1979. And as what what we've just seen over the last

Three weeks is that military power, hard power alone, cannot resolve that for you. And I think we really need to think. Uh much more seriously about a strategy which helps to, you know, empower and stand with the aspirations of people inside Iran who want to be South Korea, not North Korea. And a strategy which helps to kind of accentuate Iran's internal fissures. And I understand this is not a totally satisfying answer because.

This is not a um uh eight minute abs, all right. This is not something that you can you can achieve in in two weeks. It can potentially take years. But I do believe very much that there's no country in the world with a greater gap between its government, its people than Iran. And it's one of the few places, certainly in the Middle East, in which you could argue Western values and Western interests intersect.

Very good. Well and of course not helped by the fact that Donald Trump occasionally appears to be more interested in the dictatorial approach to life than the the democratic, but Kareem, honestly, it's been fantastic to talk to you. I hope we'll maybe do it again one day, but thank you so much for your time. Kareem, thank you very much. It was a great privilege. Thank you both. It was great to be with you. Great privilege. Thank you. Thank you, Rory. Likewise.

Well, Roy, that was great. Really interesting. I'm really pleased. It's extraordinary. Um How even for Kareem, all the contradictions and impossibilities and tensions there. I mean th there is a real sense now in which Trump and Israel have created a world in which there are no good options. I mean he he keeps

reinforcing the fact that I think he would agree very strongly with us that this was a catastrophically stupid thing to do. But I guess he's leaning into the idea that now you've done it, leaving this regime able to claim a victory um feels not just sticks in the craw, but is actually a real problem because how on earth is the economy of Dubai gonna get off the ground again? How is Qadar gonna start exporting gas again?

If a regime is left there, which at any moment, you know, potentially triggered by another strike from Israel, and as he says Israel's not going to stop striking them, uh, is going to strike Middle Eastern countries, shut the straits, etcetera. And yet it's slightly felt listening to him that that may be the situation for quite a long time to come, because he didn't sound very optimistic that the regime was about to

disappear or become pro Western any time soon. No, on the contrary, I think y y you got the sense from that he thinks that they feel they've withstood this extraordinary bombardment and they withstood it without uprising on the streets, without any real

pushback internally. They may have worsened relations with the people with whom they got on reasonably well in the past, but they won't worry about that. I also thought it was interesting the way he talked about the I this is something we said when when this thing first blew up, that if you are a dictatorship, a real dictatorship, You can hold out for longer. Yn yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw.

And I think that question from the listener who said, you know, what do we keep getting wrong? I think one of the things we get wrong is that we th we assume too often that countries and cultures that are very, very different to ours are going to react in the way that we would. The other one I would add is that we understand that these regimes are horrible and are hated by very, very large numbers of their people.

and we talk to Iranians or Libyans or Iraqis or Afghans, often outside the country, but sometimes inside the country, who just say This regime is absolutely horrible and none of us like it and we want to be rid of it. And

That can tempt you into an intervention, thinking that the intervention is somehow going to topple the regime and create a much better situation. And of course, When the son of the previous ruler of Iran, the Shah, is saying, you know, this regime is gonna collapse like a pack of cards. Or when optimistic Israelis are saying this regime's gonna collapse like a pack of cards, we just have to remember

You know, maybe you remember Hamas in Gaza, right? It's true Hamas was a horrible, brutal terrorist group that was profoundly unpopular with so many Palestinians, but that didn't mean that the Israeli campaign in Gaza has somehow got rid of Hamas. Hamas is still basically the de facto power. Or maybe the most dramatic one in my life is Afghanistan, where

The Taliban government was unbelievably unpopular, brutal, theocratic, hated by the majority of the Afghan people in two thousand one. We intervened, we spent twenty years on the ground, we spend two thousand billion dollars and now the Taliban have taken over again and

I don't think they're popular now. I think th they're probably much like the Iranian regime, fifteen, twenty percent support, eighty percent against. But that doesn't mean that our massive investments of money can achieve what understandably Iranians want. My final point is is this that the if you're Trump and you're the Americans, you are absolutely obsessed with the idea of being able to say, We won. Okay? At the end of whatever happens, we won.

Partly because they haven't been clear about what their objectives have been. They've been one minute regime change, one minute taking out their nuclear weapons, one minute killing Kamini, and they've changed. There's not been a sort of consistent sense of what the strategy is to meet a specific objective.

That becomes harder for them. Whereas for the Iranian Victory for them in this context is that the war stops without them being utterly destroyed, because that is the rhetoric and the language. that was used by Trump and Hexit and Co. when this whole thing got launched. They are in an absolute mess. Of their own making, both politically, strategically, militarily. And I think the fact that they don't have.

allies kind of rushing to help them in the way that they think they should just Trump clicks his fingers and w everybody goes running bec because they the the rest of the world is looking on saying, Well excuse me, what is it that you were trying to do? I think if if the Trump regime You've underestimated what these guys are up to and what they're capable of.

And because there's a lack of clarity about what you're trying to achieve, they're just gonna sit you out. The problem of course on that one is that the best case scenario for ending the war would have been Trump saying something like uh

This was all about their nuclear program and I've damaged their nuclear program more and they've got fewer missiles. But It's now so obvious to the rest of the world that he's exposed their ability to attack uh the economies of the Gulf and drive up oil prices and close the Straits of Hormuz. If he just says, Well, you know, mission accomplished, I've taken out their missile programs, I've destroyed their nuclear weapons, we've won.

Everybody will be saying, Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You've now created a state which is effectively able to blackmail the hole of the Gulf. and the global economy, um, you you can't walk away. Well listen, thank you to you for getting uh for having the idea of getting Kareem on. Thank you to all our listeners and viewers. You sent in hundreds of questions and above all, thank you Karim for being such an engaging and interesting guest. Thank you very much.