160. TRUMP’S TARIFFS RULED ILLEGAL

So Caddy, we have a live stream. Where are you Caddy? I'm actually in Switzerland. Today is this historic day on a number of things. We are doing better than the Trump administration today. So let me let me let me let me bring in some of the highlights and then we'll get Caddy's reaction. But uh in a six three decision, uh I was surprised by Justice Kavanaugh. Actually, I thought this thing was gonna go seven to two.

But the Supreme Court has uh agreed with the appeals court and so the tariffs are invalidated and I wanna explain that just briefly, Caddy. Uh there's something called the IEEA. This is the authorization that Trump used to put these tariffs in place, particularly the Liberation Day tariffs on April second. Oh, so this represents about sixty percent of the tariffs that we're talking about, approximately a hundred and seventy five billion dollars worth of tariffs.

have been invalidated. Okay. And this is also a lot of the Chinese tariffs that were put in place in February of 2025 invalidated. Um and before I bring in, I'm just gonna say qu three very quick things. Number one, for those of you living outside of the United States, the rule of law is still existing in the United States. twenty four cases the uh court ruled with Trump.

In this case, they say no. And it's pretty much a landmark decision about where the authority lies in taxation and the powers of taxation. Now, uh the court is partisan. Uh very surprising that this was not a nine oh decision because if you just look at the Which is what the Chief Justice wanted.

He wanted, which is why he was lobbying for it. He probably was five four and got Amy Comey Barrett uh uh uh towards the end here, which is why he released the case once he realized he wasn't gonna go more than six three. But this should have been a nine oh decision.

Uh and I'll just say one last thing, turn it over to Catty. Uh for those of you that are worried about the United States, you should be very optimistic today. The age of Trump is ending. I just wanna repeat that to everybody. The age of Trump is ending. Uh, Trump is gonna be nasty about this. He's already called it a disgrace on truth social.

He'll probably be acrimonious and whiny at the State of the Union address and maybe even castigate some of the Supreme Court justices that'll be present in the nation's capital. Uh but I think it's very important for people to understand the age of Trump is ending. Uh, in the United States between the Minnesota ridiculousness with ICE, the Supreme Court, people are taking a stand against authoritarianism and Trumpism.

Uh and I view this as incredibly positive. And I I see Trump now going into full-on grifting mode, Katy Kay, uh, and trying to avoid the scandal related to Jeff Epstein. I'll turn it over to you.

Okay, so I think I think all of that is valid. I think it's worth people still remembering. He has another three years and we're facing the prospect of America taking military action against Iran. So even though the era of Trump may be ending, that doesn't mean that on the international stage Trump can

still not, you know, try and wreak havoc around the world and take action around around the world. Back to these tariffs. The key here in this Supreme Court ruling is that the Supreme Court has said to the White House You cannot use this idea of a national emergency to impose tariffs. Tariffs are a form of taxation, and taxation has to go through Congress. So, in a way, the Supreme Court is saying to Congress, guys.

You've been asleep at the wheel. This shouldn't have to be up to us, but Congress needs to reassert itself. There are three branches of government. and one of those branches have been kinda AWOL for the last year. I think the interesting question, and we can dive into the tariffs in a second, is that Donald Trump has used this idea, Anthony,

of emergency powers or a national emergency frequently, right? In his presidency he has expanded as much as he can the power of the presidency, this idea of a Unitarian uh presidency where he tries to grab as much power as he can, and the reason he is giving when he writes all of those little executive orders with that big Donald Trump signature that we keep seeing time and again repeatedly

the reason that he gives for having to bypass Congress and uh and write an executive order and get something dramatic done in the country, what do we keep hearing? Well, there's a national emergency. There's a national emergency on immigration. Scott Bessant went on television and said we have to have Greenland because it's a national emergency to stop a national emergency. I mean

it got that sort of bizarre Orwellian when it was around Greenland. But I think what the Supreme Court has said here, and I've reached out to a constitutional lawyer in the last kind of half hour to check this. On the issue of tariffs, and we don't know how the Supreme Court, as you pointed out, the Supreme Court has actually ruled in Donald Trump's favor very many times. But on this particular issue of tariffs, and we don't know how much this extends to other issues.

The Supreme Court is saying no, that this you cannot say that there is a national emergency and impose these swooping tariffs. And we heard it specifically, right? Trump said around China that there was a national emergency, around Brazil, that there was an emergency. He's invoking this idea. Why is he sending National Guard troops into Washington DC and Los Angeles? There's an emergency.

And that premise of an emergency has been central to his overreach of power during his presidency. And I guess my question for you would be. Do you think as this constitutional lawyer I just spoke to seems to be saying that this is just about the tariffs? Is this should we see this as a narrow ruling around tariffs?

Or is this Supreme Court trying to say Justice Roberts trying to say Okay, this whole idea of emergency as a reason for executive overreach, we actually don't think that's valid. What do what do you think, Antony?

Well listen, you know I took don't wanna bring my constitutional legal background into it because I'm not a constitutional lawyer, but there was a very famous case called Youngstown Steel. uh where the court said, hey, there is a delineated separation of powers. It's a very flat, decentralized system, and you can't step into the lane of the other article of the Constitution. And so the court is basically upholding the Youngstown Steel case.

And so I'm gonna respectfully disagree with that man. This is a huge case. Uh, this is a repudiation of Trumpism. This is a repudiation of authoritarianism. Uh Trump will try to make it like it's a microscopic case, but it's not a microscopic case. This is the court telling you back the F up. Uh, you don't have this authority and you're not a king. Okay. And I think it's an interesting thing'cause it's coming at at a historical time.

Um, you know, they gave him a break on twenty four cases. Uh this one they said no. Gorsuck and Barrett, he's gonna excoriate them because he put them on the court, uh sided with Roberts. Okay. Kavanaugh is a weenie, by the way. And so Kavanaugh used to be a George Bush Reagan conservative.

Okay, the other two guys are, you know, packed and gone, Alito and Thomas, but Kavanaugh is a weenie, by the way. And Kavanaugh writes in the dissent caddy, because I read the dissent in preparation for this, that the refunds would be messy. Dude, it's not about that. Anthony, back up a little bit.

Explain that because I think a lot of people are asking questions. We've got people in the chat asking about whether they're gonna get some money back. And I'm sure a lot of businesses around a and around the world. But back up with this whole premise of refund. W explain what you mean by that.

Against the Constitution, the law that he's citing had no tariff power. Tariffs are a tax despite the president's rhetoric. Nobody pays the tariffs other than the American people, somehow, some way. The consumer pays them. Uh and s and the court saw that. I would have thought that the court would have taken a split the baby approach and said, Okay, listen, we're gonna grant that the president used this authority erroneously.

A result of which the refunds are not going to take place. So the hundreds of the three. Already America has brought in like a hundred to two something between a hundred to two hundred billion dollars is a million dollars. The question is if you're CBOS seventy two. Do we get the money back now? Yeah, exactly. So the CBO estimate is$175 billion. That's the estimate. It could be plus or minus that. But what what's basically is happening is there was a duty paid at the port. To bring the goods in.

Uh, if that duty was uh on your wine, let's say you bought some wine from France and it was held up by DHL or Okay, not that we're just not that we're gonna call up my French wine habit, but anyway, yeah, okay. Okay, but okay, but you you may have had a duty at the co uh at at the port and now you can go and apply for a refund. Okay, a lot of people probably won't do that. There will now be places on Wall Street that will suck up all these refunds. They'll call people and say, hey,

You got a refund coming, you don't want to go through the hassle of it. We'll go through the hassle of it, sort of like a class action suit, if you will, and they'll get the money uh from the government. But But it's 175 billion, which is not great for the US deficit, by the way. I'm not saying that it is, but it is great for the rule of law in the country. So what what what's gonna happen now? Whoever paid that tariff.

has the right to go to the IRS, go to the Department of Treasury, said, By the way, I paid this after Liberation Day. You owe that back to me. Now there are tariffs in place that were voted on by the US Congress. those tariffs are in place. You know, there's two hundred and ninety six billion dollars worth of revenues that have come in from the tariffs being, you know, in place.

uh 175 of them are the Trump erroneous tariffs. Now, you guys, uh somebody is uh Alex here in the chat is saying weren't the Lutnick kids buying tariff refunds. They were. Uh and so a lot of people were uh buying the tariff refunds uh and they were trading at ten cents on a dollar. So some poor corporation that paid the tariffs, like I'm never getting this money back.

Uh, how much did you pay? A hundred thousand. Okay, we'll offer you ten thousand dollars and it'll give us the right to claim your refund. So those those those things are in the money now. So anybody that made those bets are correct. And, you know, listen, I mean, I'm I'm not gonna I'm uh we're you know, Trump said we're in a golden age. You guys know we're in the golden age of corruption, Caddy K. That's the golden age that we happen to be in.

But there's something going on in the United States that people should really listen to me on this. This shit is over. Okay, this is a pounding. This is an ass kicking by the Supreme Court of the executive branch. And I'm going to tell you right now, these Republicans that met with Trump's people uh over the election strategy, knock it off.

Back the F up. We're gonna get smoked in the midterms and you're doing things outside of this system that has made us by and large very free and very prosperous. Okay, uh we're gonna take a quick break and come back and take more of your questions. We're not going to do this for a terribly long time because of course we'll be back with next week with more on this, but we'll take a quick break and come uh back and answer some of your questions.

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I think that's all right, Anthony, that this is a blow to the Trump administration. This is a containing strategy from the Supreme Court. Uh we have several checks and balances that are kicking in. We're still waiting to see whether Republicans in Congress

uh stand up to Donald Trump. He has ever since twenty sixteen had this curious hold over the party which hasn't broken. But I don't think that We should be saying to audiences around the world that this suddenly means that Trump, Donald Trump, is not still going to be a huge erratic. uh potentially wayward player on the global stage because I think there is a ch he has three more years left in office. I don't see him just deciding to go down to Mar a Lago and play golf.

Um, I think we're gonna see more of the grift, we're gonna see more of the kinds of actions that we might be on the doorstep of in Iran. I don't think the whole issue of Greenland has necessarily gone away and I don't think and if it's not Greenland it's gonna be something else. The Donald Trump himself has said that he thinks this is a disgrace. He's told people he's in a meeting in the White House. Um he uh it's being reported. He also says that he has a backup plan. So I think

he is gonna try and carry on implementing these tariffs. But I still think we have it's not like this ruling is gonna suddenly make Donald Trump a normal, calm, moderate president who's gonna turn around to the Republican Party in Congress. and suddenly say, Okay guys, you know, let's get back to normal. I I just don't think that is where he's gonna go. When Donald Trump's back is up against the wall, his instinct is to fight. So I still think we could have

other actions around the world. On the tariffs and these refunds, uh there's a lot of people asking about the refunds. Uh is the money still there? Sam Rick Rissita is asking. or already funneled to the rich friends. I think you're right. It's what you said recently that people are already buying these for ten cents on the dollars. Some people are gonna get very rich on this. I don't think many of the businesses that paid the tariffs and it was

Businesses, often small businesses in Italy, France, China, Norway, you know, Brazil, who swallowed the cost of these tariffs. I don't think those small businesses are suddenly going to get a whole load of refund checks. But Donald Trump he has a bit of a problem because he's already promised quite a lot of this money. I mean he's promised it in uh payments to farmers, he's promised it in Trump bonds, he's promised it in refunds to people.

What's he gonna do, for example, with those farm payments, Anthony? I mean, how many times can you spend this money? And if he's already spent it, What happens then? I mean, as Justice Kavanaugh said, this is messy. Yeah, it's gonna be messy. It doesn't mean it shouldn't happen, but it is gonna be messy. So what happens?

Well, listen, it's gonna be it's gonna be messy, but uh you know, the government obviously has uh taxing power, Caddy. Uh the government also has uh borrowing power and if necessary they'll end up borrowing the money. Uh and again, despite the deficit in the United States, we can step into the United States can step into the capital markets and more or less borrow at will. So I don't I don't see that as the problem. the benefit here to the US consumer

Uh, depending on which statistical study you're looking at, it's thirteen hundred to seventeen hundred dollars per consumer. You and I have always told people that these tariffs are very regressive. That's real money for the working poor. Uh, and so that will be a positive. I think one of the things that uh Trump's gotta be very, very careful of if his economic team has any brains left, they'll be saying, Hey, listen,

This is gonna widen the deficit due to refunds. If you start to impose replacement tariffs. You're gonna create even more chaos and you're gonna potentially create even higher inflation expectations, which is gonna make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. You'd be better off. yielding to the Supreme Court on this, going to the Congress and trying to get some uh tariff

t t taxing power if if you can. The chances of that are unlikely'cause of people like Rand Paul and Thomas Massey and normal Republicans, but but Caddy I I hear you that he'll still act like a rogue with Greenland and Canada and things like that, but this has weakened him. Uh, trust me, in the corridors of power, they are talking to each other and saying, Thank God. And there are economic people. There are people on his economic team

That are saying, okay, good, this is good for the US economy, that we're not going to have this uh uh f uh tariff imposition over the next three years. And so so you know. No, and listen, I mean Tony's asking, I just want to address this mooch news flash, who on the planet wants to buy US bonds?

in treasuries at the moment, but the honest answer is everybody. Uh because just go into the capital just go into the capital markets and take a look. Uh despite our problems and we have many, many problems uh the confidence level and the US paying back that debt is enormously high. Uh and this actually this case, uh if you don't mind me saying so, this case makes that even More confident, Caddy. The system is holding this is against Trumpism.

Can I say that? There's a coup let's look a little bit at the politics of this, both the domestic and the international politics of this, because at Wooster Rooster is asking how does America recover from the global relationships he has destroyed? How do we revalidate ourselves? He's already blown up the neighbourhood, the neighbours aren't going to want to move back. I think

you've got a very good point there that even if I think in terms of the r you can hear a sigh of relief coming from many countries in the world, particularly from the European Union. I've been texting with people from the EU uh in the last hour who were saying and the official version is we're just looking at this, but there is definitely relief.

um they were the ones that were finding it trickiest to negotiate with Donald Trump around tariffs. They see a vindication for having tried to hold the line against tariffs against Trump on tariffs. And they hope that there will now be more stability. So countries around the world are hoping that this could lead to more stability, at least on the tariff front. It's been a nightmare for them for the last eight months trying to deal with this.

But even if these even if he can't, even though he's saying right now today, I'm g I have a backup plan Even if he can't reimpose these tariffs, even if that backup plan fails, and we get back to some degree of normality. This has caused, as you and I found, Anthony, right, when we went to the World Economic Forum in Davos.

This tariff policy combined with Greenland, combined with bombing Venezuela, combined with are we gonna bomb Iran, take out their nuclear programme, we've obliterated their nuclear programme, oh sorry, six months later we've gotta go back in again. all of that, I think the damage from Liberation Day has been done. I think that it's gonna be very hard. It's part of what has undermined the dollar.

undermined confidence in the United States as a global leader. Um, and even if this gets unwound, even if there were to be refunds for countries around the world, Uh we know this. Other countries have already done big trade deals that they weren't able to do before. The EU with Latin America, the EU with India, the Chin the Canadians with the Europeans on supply chains. And that is all because of this.

Uh Liberation Day, would it have been better if the Supreme Court had ruled on this much faster? This delay every time the longer this went on, the more damage was being done to America's reputation and and confidence in America Inc. Y yes, I I I think that it was that's the process, unfortunately. It had to go through the district court and the court of appeals.

He moved it. Y if you remember, this is a case that should have hit the docket in February of this year with a decision rendered in June of two thousand twenty six. So he moved the case to the uh the end of two thousand twenty five to get the decision out. This is six months early for the Supreme Court. But yes, you're right. You know, this is definitely something that uh sh you know, we we we wish we didn't have to deal with. But

But I you know, I I I just wanna say to the people because I'm reading some of the comments here, I just wanna say to people, uh You know, listen, uh it's we're we're in a tough spot, the US. I'm not gonna say otherwise. We have This miscreant running the White House, he's got willing sycophants and he has a spinalist.

Republican Congress and he has a very disorganized opposition. So the opposition is fighting with itself as opposed to consolidating to fight him. So we're in a very, very tough spot. But if you think about the constitution, Caddy, the Constitution is holding because these nine people

Uh six of'em just said, Hey, uh we're not gonna go in that direction. And so, you know, Trump is sitting there muttering to himself that he only got a thirty three percent return on his investment, meaning he he had three Supreme Court justices The only one he likes is the middle pick. Right, right. Exactly. The one that likes beer. I like beer. I like beer. This dope. Okay. But in any event, you know, you just have to think about

that even his own judges wouldn't bail him out on this. And so, you know, that that's the big thing. You know, I I I think that is a big deal. It's a big deal. If somebody just said that we're gonna overcome this period of chaos. I absolutely believe that. But this is a big blow to them. And I just wanna point out to you guys, I know we have to go. He really has limited backup options, okay? Uh, you know, in section one twenty two

of the trade deals, the tariffs would have to be capped at fifteen percent. So this nonsense of going to twenty five and thirty-five and all this other stuff is crazy. He can only do that, by the way, for a hundred and fifty days. Okay. And the other sections three oh one and two thirty two. They require formal investigations and congressional oversight. So so this is a big, big blow to him.

Uh but uh you know, Trump Trump is also a lucky SOP. Okay, this is a big blow to him, but weirdly this is gonna help him, Caddy K because this is gonna improve the economy. Right. So this would be a good question. Percent is saying to himself, Okay, thank God this is happening. Right. Because actually what happened last year? The trade deficit went up. Guess what happened to manufacturing? It went down in the United States. The whole premise of these tariffs. Donald Trump

There's one word that Donald Trump goes round and round his head all the time and it's nostalgia. A feeling that he has that things used to be better. And the un the underlying reason for these tariffs was that he was gonna recreate an America that manufactured t-shirts and shoes and um, you know, all these things that it stopped manufacturing, that it's outsourced long ago and Americans were gonna go back and work in factories.

And it hasn't actually worked. I mean, maybe the administration would say, Well, we didn't have enough time, it was too choppy, it was too up and down, we needed longer in the tariffs, this was gonna be the year that it worked. But every economist that you speak to said It was never gonna happen. That was a pipe dream that that we were never gonna recreate the manufacturing dream of Donald Trump's nineteen seventies.

And 1960s, which is what he was sort of the whole premise of these tariffs were. So Matthew Byrne 4223 is asking, does this

indirectly benefit Trump now that he may have to reverse his tariffs, this may benefit the economy, or is this the latest violent swing of the tariffs which will further chaos? I think, Matthew, you're right, and I think the latest numbers that we've seen Those numbers around the trade deficit going up last year, um, and the manufacturing jobs going down last year in the United States are a reminder of why the tariff policy I mean

I don't know. Are we wrong, Anthony? Could the tariff policy have produced a manufacturing glory days back in the United States and massively bought it and it wasn't going to. The the Wall Street Journal uh had a great article about this last week. If anything, it hurt manufacturing in the US.

because lots of components that are coming into the United States have been tariffed. They've increased the prices of the goods that are being made here in the United States. An example, if you have a flat screen in your car or an airplane Well guess what, Caddy Kay, you gotta import that. We don't make those anymore. So So, you know, listen, I I'm I'm with the people

That are still upset at the US. I'm with the people that are upset at the culture in the United States. I understand many Canadians are boycotting travel into the US or boycotting purchases. A lot of people have turned on us. because of the way we've turned on them. But I think the message here from the United States is that this is a group of people that are running the executive branch temporarily.

The Constitution, which is, you know, it's gonna be two hundred and thirty-six years old. The country is gonna be two hundred and fifty years old, but the Constitution is two hundred and thirty six two hundred and thirty seven years old is holding and I think this is a really big thing. And I and I just want to point out that the The recourse that the president has is very, very limited on these. And he's now, because I know his personality, he's now going to be uh

He's gonna be more sheepish with these political leaders. He doesn't have the power that he tried to pretend that he had it. And maybe those political leaders will feel a little emboldened. So we asked you guys a poll question during this live stream. Thank you for joining you, all of you.

Particularly those of you who are founding members. We love having you with us. If you're not a founding member, you can join at the rest is politicsus.com. Anyway, here's the poll results. The question was, do you think the system will ultimately hold against Trumpism? Results 66 yes. 35 No. I agree. And I've I have always believed that the American system will hold. And this reminds me of something that uh Senator Koons.

said to you and I that has not got a lot of attention in the press, but I think is really worth people knowing. Over the course of the last year, attorneys general around the country. have brought how many lawsuits was it, Antony? Hundreds. of lawsuits against the Trump administration. and they have won seventy five percent of the time. And all of those lawsuits have been checks on executive power, the misuse of executive power. So at a quiet level the system is holding

at this headline level from the Supreme Court this system is holding. One person has asked us um on the chat. La I just want to take this last question and this is uh from Ellie Pheasants. So what happens if postus just ignores the ruling? Didn't they themselves basically give him a free pass to obeying any laws while in office? He's not gonna ignore the ruling. My my prediction here is he's not going to ignore the ruling.

Uh and I think if he did ignore the ruling, this is what constitutional lawyers have said to me right from the beginning of this administration. The moment to pull a ripcord is when Donald Trump ignores a Supreme Court ruling. I don't think he's gonna be able to do that. I mean the people around him will end up going to jail. Maybe maybe Trump and I get the point of the question, maybe Trump will have immunity.

for that, but the people that he'll need to execute ignoring the ruling will all end up in jail, Caddy. Uh a and by the way, people the people have had enough. You know? The people have had enough. I mean and and and I and I'll be able to do that. And we're seeing that in votes, by the way. We're seeing that in votes. There have been dozens of votes that are swinging against it. Yeah. Bad for the economy, bad for the world, and uh the people have had enough.

So And we're seeing that in votes around the country. You're getting state Senate votes, uh special elections, and time and again there has been this thirteen point swing away from Republicans to Democrats. So the people are making it clear that they're not happy, the polls are making it clear they're not happy. And now we have this very important Supreme Court ruling um which will be a containment on the president and

his uh use I think of you trying to use this idea of emergencies to expand presidential power in a way that the American constitution doesn't understand. Trump was driving around in a Ferrari caddy. But it turns out it's just a golf cart. That's the irony of the whole thing. He doesn't have the power that he thought.

Which doesn't mean he is not gonna make his presence felt both domestically and on the international stage. There is still gonna be an awful lot for us to cover because this president uh is not gonna He's gonna shift to more grifting, Caddy. Trust me, he's gonna shift to more grifting. His goal right now is to keep the F teen spot file suppressed.

And make himself a couple billion dollars. That's that's his goal now. He's he's gonna shift to the grifting. Okay, guys, we'll be back next week. Thank you so much for joining us. Uh we just thought this was worth hopping on and doing a quick emergency pod on. Thanks for joining us, guys. Thank you guys.