255. Trump trade tariffs - who is calling the shots?

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Most unpopular president in living memory. He can pretend as much as he can that everything's going great for Americans, but Americans' daily lives, particularly in on the inflation front and the living standards. And what was your take home from it? Because everyone's just worried about what he's gonna say next and what that's gonna mean, whether it's

He always makes the claim that tariffs are not paid by the American people, but they are paid by the American people because they very often add to the cost of what the American k people are buying. It's pure Trump. He wouldn't do it if there weren't some people who are fooled by it. We're delighted to say that this year the rest is money is being powered by Octopus Energy. And that means we get to welcome back the founder of Octopus Energy, Greg Jackson, now CEO of it.

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Steph McGovern. I'm with me, Robert Purston. So loads to talk about today, focusing on Trump. Robert's gonna give us his thoughts on his big State of the Union speech overnight. That was a whopper. Loads in it to talk about. But also tariffs. The Supreme Court has now ruled that Trump overstepped his authority when he brought out the trade tariffs. That has not stopped him, however, from introducing more. So we're going to talk about how he's doing that, what impact it has.

And also what it means for the UK as well, where does this leave Starmer on all those deals he negotiated? Well that's all to come on the show, but let's start with this State of the Union speech. Robert, what did you make of it? So I've just recovered from just under two hours of Donald Trump's State of the Union. uh message and oh my god, surprise, surprise. You know, it's the greatest American economy ever, it's the greatest America, despite the the all the incredible economic setback.

that he has suffered, including the Supreme Court. ruling his tariffs or the central part of his tariffs illegal. Um, he's behaving uh as you would expect. uh, as though nothing could indeed have gone better. Uh uh you know, there's this priceless moment.

Wh where he says it's very hard for the American people'cause they're just not used to so much winning. I mean, it it's you couldn't th the optimism of the guy is extraordinary, isn't it? Yeah, although it's interesting. Do you remember when we were talking to Karen Ward about um

You know, what Trump has been good at is just making people feel better off by giving them tangible stuff like the big beautiful bill. And that has meant that they've got more money, more income recently because of like not having the taxes on tips and things like that. So what he's a master of is Mae'n ymwneud â phobl sy'n ymwneud â phobl sy'n ymwneud â phobl sy'n ymwneud â phobl sy'n ymwneud â phobl

Even though at the same time he might be giving them more money, he's increasing inflation and he's, you know, making their life harder in lots of other ways. So he he despite the fact that yeah, he he does he's totally irrational and he he's You know, ev you you've got to discount a lot of what he says.

From a from an American point of view, people think there was still quite a lot of people who think he's doing a good job, aren't they? And that's that's the scary thing here. He's he's good at that. I guess so. I mean look, y you and I were very critical of the negativism of the British government, Starmer and Reeves, strictly at the start of the Parliament, where they were constantly talking down

um th the state of the economy and blaming the Tories. And y you know, even th even though they did inherit a difficult situation. Um, I think people were in a mood to uh hear from the government about how things were gonna get better and it just took them way too long. Well, some would say they still haven't got a compelling message about how

things are gonna get better for the majority of British people. And and and and certainly contrasting that with Trump optimism and if you believe as I do that what Keynes called animal spirits matter. that is the mood of businesses and people does have a direct impact on whether people spend and invest. Th the Trumpian approach of being more positive

you know, is is definitely something that would have a um uh uh you know and on the margin a positive impact on American prospects. The problem is that people are also aware of what they're paying for goods and services. And Trump is incredibly unpop you know, Trump is by most measures, um, pretty much the most unpopular president. uh uh you know, in living memory at this stage of the electoral cycle. He is

set to lose the midterm elections in November. And if he can talk up you know, he could he can pretend as much as he can that everything's going great, you know, going great for Americans, but Americans don't Uh America's daily lives. particularly in on the inflation front and the living standards front, is inconsistent with his positive message and they don't believe him because he's he's he's not he's not describing their lives.

Although you say that and I know the polls are really important and things, but uh uh like I'm still hearing from a lot of people who think he's great. I was with some um uh business people recently and they were all talking about how great Trump is. I was really shocked, but they they were genuinely it was a room of of of of several hundred people and a lot of them in there were like pro Trump, pro reform.

Like they were just like, Yeah, these are the people who are gonna make our lives better. So what was it, a crypto conference? No, it wasn't, it was it was an insurance conference. So which is ironic given they analyse risk and, you know, try and work out

how to you know, uh the the security risks of things. But anyway I mean in terms of that that speech then, what was your take home from it? In terms of what happens next,'cause everyone's just worried. He he just what about what he's gonna say next and what that's gonna mean, whether it's Iran or whether it's tariffs or whether it's Greenland or, you know, whatever thing is is

is you know, in his mindset at that moment. It was certainly less warmongering about Iran than I had feared, uh, particularly after the Secretary of State Marco Rubio uh gathered together the sort of relevant senior people from Congress to brief them on possible military conflict with Iran. Um that said, you know, i i it's quite clear that

Um Trump is preparing for a possible military strike on on Iran. I mean he says he would rather have a negotiated settlement, but um he's he's very pessimistic about that. So I think, you know, in terms of the stability of of everything important, including the stability of the economy. I think we have to brace ourselves for the uh the v very significant probability that there will be an American attack on on Iran within possibly even coming days. Um

But as I say, he was le he he he was less gung ho about it than perhaps one might have exp might have expected. Tariffs and and we're gonna come on later and talk about the uh economic uh and business impact of of tariffs. There was no hint of him backing off his ambitions to keep tariffs at a very high level, despite the the Supreme Court ruling that his central uh his his his central policy in terms of raising power tari tariffs is illegal, um and him having to essentially abandon

all of that. I mean he made this ludicrous claim. I mean genuinely ludicrous claim, that tariffs will uh you know, one day as a result of his policies, um mean that all income tax in America is abolished. I mean it's an absolutely tariffs you know, even before the the you know the the um Supreme Court ruling were raising a fraction. of what America raises in income taxes, there's absolutely no possibility.

of tariffs replacing income taxes. And and it should also it i i th there's also what you might call a category error here because he seems to he he always makes the claim that tariffs are not paid by the American people. Well they are paid by the American people because they they they very often add to the cost of what the American k people are buying. So the idea that this is somehow this great nirvana where Americans stop paying tax um is completely is literally on all fronts.

I'm sad. But it's pure Trump. Uh and there are obviously some people he would he wouldn't do it if there weren't some people who uh are fooled by it. Yeah, yeah. It's probably just worth reminding everyone as well what what actually has happened in the last few days with with trade tariffs'cause you mentioned the Supreme Court and this was a ruling you and I have been waiting for. We

We talked a a couple of episodes about what the the chances were of of them ruling against Trump and then what he would do next and it's kind of played out exactly as as we predicted. But so the the Supreme Court's ruled that Trump overstepped his authority when he introduced

all the trade tariffs'cause he used this specific thing called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose these, you know, broad tariffs. But now the Supreme Court ruled that was actually out of his Uh jurisdiction essentially.

But obviously Trump's made a huge thing out of tariffs in this second term. He's not going to let it go. And as we predicted, he's now just using different legislation to bring in this kind of broad brush tariff of what started as ten percent and then he quickly ramped it up to 15% ac mae'n defnyddio'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol yw'r cymdeithasol.

a hundred and fifty days and obviously lots of questions around what will happen after that but this Mae'n ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud ymwneud hynny. for a country like the UK, it's bad news because this actually increases our tariff. We'd negotiated a ten percent tariff. And yet the the enemies of America like China are better off from this

new global tariff deal. It's quite interesting when we need to look at the impact on the UK, but what first of all, Robert, is your reaction to this of of this new global tariff that's coming. Yeah, I mean I think it is quite important to say that

the Supreme Court and the Chief Justice Roberts left him absolutely no wriggle room on this. Um I mean Roberts said explicitly Uh that there was absolutely nothing in the legislation that he used which suggested that the government of the time would ever have wanted a president to use it to introduce tariffs in the way that he did. So, you know, that that that that method of introducing tariffs is dead to him. And that is really significant in terms of his political power.

Um w we we'll get on later to the economics of this and whether there are other ways that he can raise m the tariffs and raise the money from the tariffs. But the the the the reason he loved introducing tariffs under these so-called emergency economic powers was because he could pick off countries that he didn't like or he wanted something out of. and he could threaten them w you know, so, you know, w when when uh Brazil was threatening um legal action against his friend Bolsonaro

he, you know, w whacked enormous tariffs on them as as punishment. He can't do that kind of thing anymore because under the the uh the alternative tariffs that he's now uh uh introducing And and w th this has also got huge political consequences for the UK which will come on and economic consequences for which will come onto.

He can no longer, you know, say to Brazil or say to China or say to Canada, I'm gonna punish you'cause I don't like you. His political power vis a vis vis other countries w who whom he wants to hurt uh or he wants to get something out of is massively reduced because uh under his under the un under the tariff regime that he now is trying to export, there are only two routes for him.

One is this general tariff on everybody. So as you say China uh gets now the same tariff regime as the UK, is China perceived as an enemy, the UK perceived as a friend? And w we do need to discuss w whether this completely undermines Starmer's whole approach of trying to be friendly with uh Trump. Uh but and then the other route he can take is he can launch investigations

uh against particular countries if he thinks there are unfair trade practices going on there. But that requires quite a lot of research into the uh industrial policies of that country. And it can't just be used um to immediately punish a country that he doesn't like. It requires preparation over weeks and

And and months so poor old Donald Trump, who loves being the most powerful person in the world. Supreme Court, some would say, certainly on the international stage, has somewhat cut him down to size. It's not a shock that. I mean or is it a shock that he's not come out and slagged them off? He has a little bit, but he's not done like what he's done with the Fed where he You know, really went for Uh

and you know, questioned his independence has all called him all sorts. He hasn't done the same with the Supreme Court, has he? And why do you think that is? Didn't want to remind the American people last night that he was humiliated. I mean you know, it's not a good look for him, um, that uh the Supreme

court um has uh you know as I said, limited his powers in a very significant way and and and and he's obviously not gonna want to relive his humiliation. I mean the other thing though is to go back to hit the popularity question. Um, tariffs are not popular in America. Um again, all the public shows that people understand that tariffs make them poorer.

Uh uh uh uh you know, the the American people are not stupid. Yeah, I was listening to um um uh you know, MPR, the National Public Radio in in America, and there was some really interesting small business owners there talking about the impact of tariffs on them. And, you know, there was one lady who runs uh she sells like backpacks and things like that, battery, you know, bags and stuff. And she was saying she's paid out about thirty five thousand dollars.

in these tariffs, but also she spent a ton of time just trying to work out how to, you know, go through the bureaucracy of it all. It's meant that at times her products have been out of stock and it's really impacted her business in in loads of ways. And so she's been, she describes how she's been desperately like refreshing the

Supreme Court every day to try and work out when this ruling was gonna come and whether she'll get a refund. Because obviously there's a big question now about whether people will get back this money, this tariff money that was essentially If for example you filled out your custom form wrong, you could easily get a refund. So these small businesses we're talking about, you know, it

Would we be able to get it like that? Are they is it going to be an easy refund? And all the lawyers are saying, No, we're gonna you you're probably gonna have to sue the government. And, you know, this is gonna be a really litigious process. and it's going to be expensive it's going to be time consuming and the chances are for a lot of those businesses and it won't just be american companies obviously but this this particular group have kind of formed a bit of a

that for them they just can't afford to even try and get those refunds back. So, you know, we're hearing from companies like FedEx who have now filed a lawsuit to to get their money refunded. But for all these small businesses, there's no chance And that is th that's really bad as well, isn't it? So it might be like, Oh Trump you've lost That that tariff um where you were cre uh you know, getting money through th those tariffs, but now you've s you're shafting loads of

small American businesses too. Like this woman was saying, she if she got that money back, she'd rehire people and yet she can't because she does she's probably never going to get it back. And so the the impact is much

more hardly har you know, harshly felt by people than probably Trump is giving it any credit for. Yeah. I mean and and and I've also been talking to leaders of of of of bigger businesses and I mean they are Some of them anyway, in two mines as to whether to sue to get the money, because You know, put putting it in no i i in in in in simple terms, they're terrified of Trump. I mean what they don't want is for Trump to no to notice. Um, you know, if they are dependent on his goodwill.

uh, you know, particularly if they they've got regulated products, if they're dependent on him for you know, his goodwill, do they actually wanna um, you know, potentially make an enemy of him by in a very high profile way suing the American government to get, you know, what could be Um relative to their overall turnover. N not that much money. Um I mean there is gonna be inevitably, uh as we always see in these cases, a sort of business created from

um financiers and hedge funds, I'm sure that you know, uh in fact I imagine this is already happening. They will be buy they will be buying up the liabilities for refunds of businesses big and small and then taking on the court cases and of course they'll buy they'll buy so if if if let's just say you paid a hundred million in um tariffs, if if if you did, they'll be buying them at Fifty million. um uh uh you know, hoping to recoup the whole hundred million when the court case is over.

Um uh actually I whether whether indeed they would pay fifty you know, fifty cents on the dollar or or or rather less, given that there are quite a lot of American lawyers who wonder whether the American government will ever pay out. I don't know. Uh i you know, they may be paying even less than that.

But I I I'll look at I I'll look into that before the next episode about what the what we think the value of this p possible future payout is in an investment sense. It's where there's blame there's a claim. It's that classic, isn't it? you know, it's all that everyone comes out and creates an industry out of uh of other people's turmoil and you know, you see it with all kinds of things, don't you, whether it's PPI or

Car finance, miss selling, whatever it is, people then come out and make a a business out of it. Obviously we do want to l look specifically at the impact on the UK. But before we move on to that, I did think it's just useful to remind people that

Trump did make huge claims about the positive impact that tariffs would have. So for example, he insisted it would massively reduce America's trade deficit. Um quite a lot of people think that that was a a you know, a balmy ambition anyway. But if you think it's a good it it would have been a good thing. It hasn't done that. The trade deficit in two thousand and twenty five was more or less the same as the in the previous year. It has not reduced America's um

trade deficit. Uh yes, there have been quite a lot of companies saying that they were going to invest more uh in the US. but actually the reality of that has not yet kicked in. So investment last year i in in in America was not significantly greater uh uh than it was under Biden. So much of of what he wanted has not materialized. Um now I what I should also point out that there were genuine fears um

that this would lead to uh a a very serious economic downturn in America. And, you know, I was one of those who on this podcast expressed those fears. We should point out that the economic damage has been less than some of us thought it it it would be. I mean we are seeing inflation that is stickier than it would otherwise be and that is a cost and it's also a political cost to him which we talked earlier because it means

um that the cost of living for Americans is still is still rising. But he has been bailed out. for now by the AI investment boom and the massive investments in data centers and in energy as a result of the AI. boom means that the American economy has grown uh you know, at a at a pretty reasonable rate.

You I would argue nothing to do with with him because of the AI boom. The tariff the negative tariff impact on America has been less than um it would otherwise have been. Yeah, that's really interesting, isn't it? Um, so we should definitely talk about the impact on the UK then and what it means for obviously the the deals that Starmer negotiated and whether they're worthless now. Um but first let's go to a quick break. Trading as Schwab is now powered by Ameritra.

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We're gonna talk now about the impact of of of Trump's tariff changes and this Supreme Supreme Court ruling, which has meant he's now using other legislation to bring out this kind of broad brush. global tariff of fifteen percent. Uh we've talked about, you know, the impact in terms of global economics, but we should focus on the UK because obviously Starmer spent quite a bit of time um getting that deal over the line. We were the first country to get a deal uh with America on trade tariff.

And obviously lots of businesses in the UK are now going, Well, what does this mean for us as exporters? And and one of those, which is is big in all of this, is manufacturing. So before we talk about what we think on it, we wanted to hear from Um Stephen Phipson, who who is the the D G the Director General of Make UK, and that's the body which represents manufacturers i in all forms of manufacturing, whether it's aerospace or automotive or right down to

you know, small companies in the s supply chain making widgets or whatever it is. It's a you know, an organization that's been going for a long, long time. Funnily enough, side note, when I was uh one young engineer for Britain, it was them in their former um when they were called EEF, the Engineering Employers Federation, who gave me the award. Really important voice in manufacturing. So this is what Stephen Phipson had to say. About Mm. The US is our single biggest

Export market. And if you start playing with the tariff regime, that means the pricing changes across the border. And then it's a question of who's paying. Often, if they're on a fixed term. that means that the cost of the additional tariffs goes to the manufacturer. That means the people in the UK are suffering lower margins in already a very, very difficult scenario. So for them it causes

That sort of confusion. And also the other thing we've noticed every time Donald Trump stands up and changes the tariff regime, the US customs th is thrown into confusion and they don't know which pi bit of paperwork to use. We have delays at the borders. Often attracts penalties if you're in the supply chain because you're committed

to delivering in a certain time. So it's already quite a tough sector in terms of margins and and and and getting that business uh to work. The US is our biggest partner, but this just creates an enormous amount

in the system. Many of those supply chain companies in particular are now looking at other markets, trying to find other markets which look more stable to them to try to export their products and capability too. So we're having a big pickup of interest, for example, in India or in the Middle East. And could they pivot some of that away from the unstable US situation and try and get more stability into the system? So for manufacturing, it's all about.

a stable business environment and at the moment we're not sure

That's where the US is. It seems to be changing on a regular basis. So that's Stephen Phipson there from Make UK making that really important point there. It's about the uncertainty as much as anything else because You know, as Stephen explained, this global levy doesn't impact tariffs on

specific sector agreements, you know, so it doesn't impact the deals we got on steel and aluminium, pharmaceuticals, automotive and aerospace. They're not going to be affected. But it's just the general like drama of A might that change and and B lots of business people contacting him trying to work out what it all means and it's that uncertainty which is a real

you know, disease in in business when it comes to investment and everything else, isn't it, Robert? I'm afraid I'm less optimistic than Stephen is th these carve out deals for the UK will survive because if you look at the legislation under which Trump has now introduced I mean he's he's introduced a ten percent tariff. That has been published. He has said he's gonna increase that to fifteen percent. What that legislation says is you cannot discriminate

um all countries have to be treated equally. And so, uh you know, if you are the European Union, for example, um, or if you are China, Um, you might well go to court. uh uh in America. Um or if you're one of those businesses you know l located there, you might go to court in America and say, look, you know, this tariff is

unfair, um, because it is not being applied equally. Um, you know, it is not, for example, being applied to uh, you know, uh you know, the UK uh in the way that it's being applied to us. And so there there is a there is a risk that what he will do n is is is not rip out. Uh,'cause why would he want to do that? The trade agreement with uh the UK. But he might have to impose the extra ten percent on top of the ten percent that British auto manufacturers

are already paying, right? Um or, you know, add another fifteen percent on I mean, there is a genu you know, I've been talking to lawyers about this, there is a genuine risk of of all of that. And I know the motor manufacturers themselves are deeply uneasy. Um and and you know, th I mean there've been there've been manufacturers wondering should they actually at the moment be putting their cars

on ships to America. The last thing they want is for the uh the you know, for their luxury cars to arrive there and be whacked not with the ten percent they thought they'd negotiated. But with twenty five percent or twenty percent. Yeah, and I and it's the point again that Steven made about lead times. You know, when when these and I remember this at Black and Decker, when you'd work on a product that was being manufactured in front of you, but it would be

it sometimes years before it would be actually in the shops and things. So as you say, so much can change in that time. So how do you price it in the first place if if you're not sure whether there's gonna be an additional ten percent on a tariff on the on the on the cost of the product and and that inevitably it's that thing that stopped

investment because people go, well hang on, if we don't know if there's too many variables and we can't work out our costs, how do we know how much money we have uh to invest in all of this? So what so what do you think Starmer's gonna do? Because obviously there's lots of talk, the EU are fairly um much more aggressive, I would say, in all of this in terms of potential retaliatory uh tariff.

Whereas the UK government have you know, they've really sat on the fence a bit like the business bosses we talked about a minute ago. They don't want to upset Trump. You won't get a minister. saying publicly what they really think of Trump, you know, everyone just really plays this anodyne view of

of of of Trump and is that what's likely to happen, do you think? What's Starmer gonna do? I I think this is a real embarrassment for Starmer, um, because, you know, if you just look at the immediate impact of what was announced.

uh by the Supreme Court last week massively reduces tariffs paid by, for example, you know, Brazil and and China and but and massively increases when if particularly if fi the fifteen if if the fifteen percent uh rate is introduced, what the UK would play and it b blows up Months and months and months.

of you know effectively the British government sucking up to Trump. And given that that is politically within the UK not a very good look for the government, if at the end of it they they don't um they they don't get better you know preferential treatment

You know, I think many British voters will say what the hell was that all about? Yeah, yeah. And it's that it's also just what it says generally to people about letting bullies win. It really is, you know, it's really hard to explain like for example, to my kids and to kids about

why Trump's allowed to do what he does. And i you know, we just look really weak in moments like this. And I know this where it's complicated and it's all to do with this dependency we have on them for trade, but not just trade, it's about security. And it's about or a million other things that you don't you know, we're not necessarily talking about when we talk about trade, but it does make us look weak.

And should we be thinking about this as a way to just stop having such a codependency on America and look at, you know, the EU more closely and I know we're out of The European Union but It just feels like this is the time when we should just stand up for ourselves and look at another way through this that doesn't involve us being bullied. Yeah, I mean look if y i if in the end we uh face b uh a very similar tariff regime

to the EU and Canada. Uh uh, you know, against a backdrop where, you know, Macron of France has stood up to Trump in a way that Starmer didn't and Kearney has stood up to Trump in the way that Starmer didn't. You know, I think there will be enormous political pressure on S uh whoever

uh, is the British Prime Minister and let's be absolutely clear there are quite a lot of people in Parliament who wonder whether Starmer is going to remain Prime Minister for that much longer. But whether it's Starmer or a successor I th you know, there will now be enormous pressure. um on the UK to ha have a rethink of what is the best way of conducting commercial and diplomatic relations with America and whether we should, you know, uh look a little bit less fawning.

um uh uh and and be a bit a bit tougher. Um I mean we had the extraordinary uh of the former US ambassador, Peter Mandelson, being arrested the other day. He was the sort of living embodiment of the you know, the starmer approach of s you know, in essence sucking up to to Trump uh and his Colleagues. you know, s Starmer today will be thinking, well, I didn't get a lot of commercial benefit out of that and the political damage of seeing my appointee, you know, being uh you know, arrested

uh interviewed by the police in Wandsworth and then returned at two in the morning. Those are images that are gonna haunt his time in office for as long as he's in office and it is all of a piece because it was all driven by this idea. Um that you had to placate Trump rather than standing up to him. And if at the end of the day, as I say, the im the economic benefit of of of placating Trump

uh turns out to be negligible. Um, you know, it's just another aspect of of uh essentially his big approach just disintegrating in his own hands. When I was um talking to Sir Michael Moritz uh last week You know, uh we were talking about the business leaders who are not necessarily standing up to Trump. And, you know, Michael was explaining how

They have no choice and their job is to do business and to look after the business. And as it stands, to do that, they just have to, you know, take whatever Trump throws at them and and not stand against him. But there does come a c a point where, and this is what I asked him, is when does your morals and humanity become like more important than business? Or just does it never? Is it just always that?

y you know, we've we've we we've just gotta suck it up because l life otherwise would just be too destructive and that would lead to much greater problems than dealing with a bully. And and that I find that really depressing. And what did he say? Was there a would was is there ever a line for business? Yeah, well he kinda didn't answer it to be honest. He was just

kind of saying they you know,'cause he was very he's very vocally anti Trump. He I think he called him a buffoon on um on the podcast. It's worth listening to that interview Actually, if if you haven't heard it, um the the but you know, one of the previous episodes. He just reiterates the point about yeah, yeah. I mean it was a long pause first when I asked him that question, but he just made the point that I guess and and this is valid as well, that these businesses employ

you know, thousands and thousands of people, you're putting their jobs at risk and their lives at risk if you challenge someone who might make your business then really difficult to to function. And I guess that is the same thing. It's weighing that up. Starmer's gonna weigh it up. What are the consequences going to be?

And yes, your point that well actually we've not had any benefit from it, but maybe we haven't had the negativity we we might have had if we'd have stood up to him more. I don't know. I j it just feels depressing and I know I've said that twice now, but I I'm a life's optimist, but I feel like we're in a really bad rut at the minute and it's just not getting any better, especially for, you know, diversity and for

general human rights and and living standards and everything else, it just feels like we're going backwards rather than forwards. Oh gosh. Well look I'm gonna cheer us up by saying as usual. I know I didn't give you anywhere to go there. One positive thing, your point though, which I think is really true about you were talking about AI and how actually all of the growth that's come from AI has kind of, you know, basically masked the negativity of the trade tariffs. And that is what I do think.

Happens. we have the potential, we we've talked before about how we're the third, you know, we look you know, the third best in terms of AI potential after America and China. And if we capitalise on that, we might circumvent all the negativity from the politics And actually just win with business and technology and we will c find our way through it without w you know, by ignoring the chaos and just getting on with what we're really good at, which is creating new companies, new stuff, new tech.

Yn yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n yw'n. so uh intelligently encapsulated that we are going to pivot to having closer trade relations with the European Union. That is absolutely inevitable. Um it is um as he said as a trading area. It is a bigger market than the US. That is a positive. Um Uh uh uh and since you've mentioned AI, uh I think we should come back to this in in an episode soon. Yes, of course.

You know, there are lots uh and we you know, we we've had so many interesting conversations about how well placed the UK is to take advantage of this technological revolution. There are still, we should point out, enormous uncertainties for

uh jobs and living standards in this industrial revolution. I was staggered. I don't know if you saw there was a blog. I think it's a blog put out by uh an organization called Citrini, which which c came up with this sort of fictional account of how we were heading for a great recession as a result of of AI and it actually had an enormous impact on the stock market, which in in a negative sense.

um uh a or a significant impact on the stock market in a negative sense. So it shows you w uh you know And and you know, really and this goes back essentially to Trump's State of the Union um where we started, uh uh uh uh and how he tries to buoy people up against the backdrop of enormous uncertainty, uncertainties that he created. People are just very, very

anxious at the moment. There is an enormous amount of uncertainty. And if a single blob blob not blob, blog, if a single blog can shake investors, um uh you know and a blog I have to say, which I when I read I did not think was particularly compelling. Uh, it shows you we are you know, th there are very good things about the state of the British economy, but we just live in a time of

considerable unease and anxiety, I'm afraid. I tell you who's gonna do well over the next few years though, lawyers. Lawyers are gonna do so well from all this litigation and all the the you know the everything else working out what it all means and suing governments and everything else. So good luck to the lawyers. I'm not sure that isn't necessarily a I'm not sure that is a silver lining. And if you are listening and you're of an age where you're thinking about a career.

There are quite a lot of lawyers in the world. So I mean, it may it may it may sound attractive, but if you can think of something else to do, I'm not gonna dissuade you. Okie dokie. Right, uh that's it from us on this episode. Thank you very much. Bye bye. All the best. Goodbye.