Since 1994 Belarus has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, better known as Europe's last dictator. 2020 though brought a brand new wave of protests and Lukashenko's position in power has become somewhat shakey, and he is beginning to outlive his usefulness to the Kremlin. Will the Kremlin fight to keep him there, or place someone else on the throne? Is there a future for Belarus in the West? On the panel this week - Scott Rauland (Fmr US Amb to Belarus) - Heather Conley (CSIS) - Steven Pifer (Fm...
Sep 05, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Season 3Ep. 18
Turkey and Greece have been battling each other for influence over the Eastern Mediterranean now for centuries, and nowhere is that struggle more evident than on the island of Cyprus. The island is currently divided into 3 parts, and for decades the conflict has remained stagnant, but will the conflict reignite with the discovery of a range of new gas fields off the coast? On the panel this week - Madalina Vicari (Geopolitics Writier) - Andreas Theophanous (Uni of Nicosia) - Matthew Bryza (Fmr A...
Aug 22, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Season 3Ep. 17
South America's largest nation is currently in the middle of a tumultuous period, with war at home and a looming financial crisis on the horizon. What does the next decade hold in store for the heart of the continent, and will the military retake control of the country? We ask our expert panel. - Christoph Harig (HSU Hamburg) - Victor Pougy (Intercept Brazil) - Christopher Sabatini (Chatham House) Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod Follow Michael on @MikeHilliardAus For more info visit - www.ther...
Aug 08, 2021•1 hr 22 min•Season 3Ep. 16
With the attention of the world focused elsewhere, a conflict that threatens the stability of an entire continent has slipped under the radar. Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict has rapidly spiralled out of control, decimating their Armed Forces and sending the country toward the brink of collapse. With few options left, the now desperate Ethiopian Government is recalling their peacekeepers from dozens of hotspots across Africa, opening the door for conflicts throughout the continent to reignite. On the...
Jul 25, 2021•1 hr 32 min•Season 3Ep. 15
Diamonds have been used to pay militias and rebel groups for decades due to their ease of transportation, global demand, and reliable value. After diamonds fuelled conflict across Africa, the Kimberley Process was created to stop the use of conflict diamonds, but its limitations have left key loopholes open. Exploiting these has allowed this trade to rampage through the African continent once again. How can this process be reformed? And who will pay the price? On the panel this week. Brad Brooks...
Jul 11, 2021•1 hr 11 min•Season 3Ep. 14
Dubai's transformation from a fishing village to a global hub epitomises the unlikely country that is the United Arab Emirates. Massive oil wealth has enabled them to punch above their weight, but as the world marches away from oil, the pressure is building to secure their future while they still can. How will the UAE diversify? And what is its ambitious Red Sea strategy? We ask our expert panel: Hilal Khashan (American University of Beirut) Helen Lackner (ECFR) Bilal Saab (Middle East Institute...
Jun 27, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Season 3Ep. 13
To counter an ever-expanding China, Tokyo is turning abroad in search of allies. Key to this is the recent revival of "The Quad", a strategic dialogue between The US, Australia, Japan and India. Will it be enough to counter their rising neighbour across the East China Sea? Is this the first step to creating an "Asian NATO", and what will Chinas response be? We ask our expert panel. On the panel this week: Owen Swift (ASPI) John Nilsson-Wright (Cambridge) John Coyne (ASPI) Follow the show on @The...
Jun 13, 2021•1 hr 13 min•Season 3Ep. 12
Half way down the old Silk Road lies the former Soviet republic of Uzbekistan, the republic that connects all of the Central Asian states. With the passing of their long-term dictator Uzbekistan is now making big steps forward but the weights left over from their past will be hard to shake, one of those being an entire rotting island that once housed the Soviet biological warfare program now radiating out into the desert. On the panel this week - Joanna Lillis (The Economist) - Nikita Makarenko ...
May 30, 2021•1 hr 21 min•Season 3Ep. 11
With each major technological leap forward in warfare the rules of war also change, and the new frontier of Cyber Warfare has completely thrown out the conventional concept of the first strike. With tens of thousands of cyber-attacks are occurring each day from all of the major players how prepared any nation is to be able to defend itself is now a giant question mark. On the panel this week - Tom Uren (ASPI) - Brandon Valeriano (CATO) - Jody Westby (Global Cyber Risk) - Bruce Schneier (Harvard ...
May 16, 2021•1 hr 31 min•Season 3Ep. 10
On the Northwestern edge of the Sahara desert lies the former Spanish colonial possession of Western Sahara. The region has been in various states of conflict for over 50 years, with Morocco's Royal Armed Forces and the Algerian-supported Arab Sahrawi Democratic Republic battling it out for control. We look at the origins of this conflict, the difficulties in resolving it, and the consequences for failing to do so for the stability of Western Africa. On the panel this week Stephen Zunes (Cornell...
May 02, 2021•1 hr 26 min•Season 3Ep. 9
In 1823 US President James Monroe declared "The Monroe Doctrine", that the Western hemisphere would be the backyard of the United States. That doctrine is now almost 200 years old and the world is a very different place, European powers such as the Netherlands, UK and France all hold colonies in the Sea; and other players such as Venezuela and Cuba are putting forward competition as well. The real threat for the US though may come from outside powers shopping around for strategic footholds in an...
Apr 18, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Season 3Ep. 8
Georgia has been at the heart of regional geopolitics for decades now, smashed between three expanding areas of influence from Moscow, Ankara and Tehran, with Georgia desperately trying to act as the neutral ground. But war is already there in the Georgian homeland, with the two breakaway Moscow facing republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, adding more complications to an already tumultuous region. On the panel this week. Gerard Toal (Geopolitical Author) Natia Seskuria (RUSI) Neil Hauer (Conf...
Apr 04, 2021•1 hr 40 min•Season 3Ep. 7
When Obama left the White House he stated that the thing that kept him up at night more than anything else was the potential for Pakistan and India to stumble into an unplanned nuclear exchange. What was once a regional conflict has now drawn in a number of great powers such as China, and the US, but no side yet has a real plan to try to avert the risk of this simmering conflict going nuclear. The estimate is that in the event of an Indian invasion toward Islamabad the Pakistani command may only...
Mar 21, 2021•1 hr 43 min•Season 3Ep. 6
For a number of years Iraq has been spiraling, with worsening insurgencies, sectarian violence and numerous regional players all treating Iraq like a political battleground. How did we get here though? What was the decision made to bring Iraq to the point we stand at now, and will decisions coming up better or worsen the situation? On the panel this week. JAMES LEBOVIC (George Washington University) DIYAR AMEEN (Kurdistan Mission to the EU) JOSEPH VOTEL (Rtr 4-Star US General) For more info plea...
Mar 07, 2021•1 hr 51 min•Season 3Ep. 5
We dont think much about it but Rare Earth elements are a huge part of our everyday life, powering our phones, laptops, satellites and cars. The thing we all overlook though is where those Rare Earths are coming from, and right now China controls 98%+ of the market, meaning that every single high technology item we use at some point relies on China. That issue compounds as well when you realise that this problem extends to the defence industry, with state of the art US fighters such as the F-35 ...
Feb 21, 2021•1 hr 38 min•Season 3Ep. 4
Lake Chad has shrunk by almost 90% since 1960, and the situation on the ground is becoming a breeding ground for regional terrorism. Outfits like Boko Haram, and ISIS in Africa are now capturing big patches of land in Lake Chad Region. France, the US, and their regional partners are trying desperately to avoid the situation spinning out of control, but with a shrinking lake how successful can they be? This weeks panel Tomasz Rolbiecki (Uni of Gdansk) Vincent Foucher (CNRS + Crisis Group) John Ca...
Feb 07, 2021•1 hr 11 min•Season 3Ep. 3
Russias entire defense strategy relies on a friendly or neutral Ukraine, so when Ukraine almost turned to the west in a revolution in 2014 panic swept the Kremlin; and Russia invaded and occupied the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in the East. Will this war slow down to frozen conflict like in Transnistria, or will it roar back to life like in Karabakh, we ask our expert panel. This week Steven Pifer (Brookings Institute) Gustav Gressel (European Council of Foreign Relations) Thomas Gra...
Jan 24, 2021•1 hr 28 min•Season 3Ep. 2
Xi has thrown down the gauntlet and stated that Taiwan will return to the Peoples Republic of China by 2049, whether Taiwan wants it or not. So now a countdown timer has started, and Taiwan scrambles to prepare for what Beijing may throw at it. Should they build a large navy? Should they try and push the Chinese back into sea fighting on the beaches? Should the Taiwanese retreat to the jungles and fight a bloody insurgency from there? We ask our expert panel what strategy Taiwan is likely to tak...
Jan 10, 2021•1 hr 31 min•Season 3Ep. 1
No country could possibly feel more like "the edge of the known world" than the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan. A nation where the president has been in power since '92 and has ruled the country with an iron fist, amassing a huge amount of wealth for himself using everything from Aluminum to Heroine; but things are beginning to change and Dushanbe could very soon be answering to new masters. Tajikistan is the latest battleground between Beijing and Moscow, the winner of which is yet to be ...
Dec 27, 2020•1 hr 28 min•Season 2Ep. 26
Colombia has always been closely associated with the international Cocaine trade, but the situation there is far more complicated with wider ramifications for the entire region. The government of Bogota has been at war with the rebels in a 6-way struggle for almost 60 years, with a peace deal now sitting on the table. Is this deal a workable peace though, or just the start of the next phase? We ask our expert panel. Allison Fedirka (Geopolitical Futures) Ted Piccone (Brookings Institution) Chris...
Dec 13, 2020•1 hr 35 min•Season 2Ep. 25
Like many of the ex-soviet republics, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been part of the frozen conflict now since the early '90s, but Azerbaijan has spent the last few years building up a massive modern army. Baku has now used that army to engage in a full-scale war with Armenia in an attempt to recapture the land lost in 91. With the Armenians in full retreat and the Azeris moving into their old positions what will this mean for the region? Will Ankara or Moscow have the final say on the battlefield...
Nov 29, 2020•1 hr 48 min•Season 2Ep. 24
With a new cold war between the USA and China looming on the horizon the balance of power in Asia is being drawn up, with Beijing and Washington vying for influence in the region. Of all the nations of importance though none will be as crucial as Indonesia. Set to be the 4th largest economy by the year 2050 Indonesia is quickly becoming a regional leader, one that could dictate the direction for ASEAN and SE Asia for decades to come. So we sat down with our expert panel to talk about the future ...
Nov 15, 2020•1 hr 18 min•Season 2Ep. 23
What was once considered a Soviet lake is now quickly becoming one of the most important strategic locations in the region, with Russia working hard to maintain its grip over the sea. The important part though may be what lies beneath its surface, that being enough gas to power Europe and blunt Russia's gas monopoly. So whoever controls the Caspian, will have major leverage over the European powers, but to discuss this further we turn to our expert panel. Eugene Chausovsky (Centre for Global Pol...
Nov 01, 2020•1 hr 14 min•Season 2Ep. 22
This week we take a deep dive into how to manipulate elections, whilst breaking open a large story connecting Brexit and the Russian ambassador. We also go through how Murdoch consolidates media outlets, how foreign nations conduct PsyOps as well as how companies likely Cambridge Analytica are hired to swing elections. 3 big stories on the 1 year anniversary of the show. with KEVIN RUDD (Fmr Australian Prime Minister) NICK MUTCH (The Daily Beast, Der Spiegel) WILLIAM MARCELLINO (RAND Corporation...
Oct 18, 2020•1 hr 26 min•Season 2Ep. 21
Smashed between Russia and China, Mongolia has a difficult position to begin with; but it was from that position that it once managed to create the largest contiguous empire known to man. What is the situation in Mongolia today though? Why has Mongolia become a peacemaker in Asia? and where does the future for Mongolia lie, In Moscow, in Beijing or in Washington? We sit down with our expert panel this week. Morris Rossabi (Columbia University) Andrew Leung (International Consultant) Julian Dierk...
Oct 04, 2020•1 hr 6 min•Season 2Ep. 20
The US has now been at war in Afghanistan for almost 20 years, and three administrations have all failed to find a solution to this war. Now the clock is ticking, with the Taliban gaining more and more ground every day, and the US risks a second "Rout from Saigon". So the US is looking to a peace deal, but will it actually bring stability to the region or simply further splinter an already expanding civil war. This week's guests are Sahar Khan (CATO) John Glaser (CATO) Jarrett Blanc (Carnegie) F...
Sep 20, 2020•1 hr 17 min•Season 2Ep. 19
Somalia is often referred to as a failed state, with the nation being fractured into 4 parts, piracy and Al Shabaab controlling large chunks of the country, but Somalia seems to be getting back on its feet now. What will this mean for the rest of East Africa, and who might be working to knock Somalia back down? We speak to our panel of experts about the regional ramifications. This weeks panel is Omar Mahmood (Crisis Group) Degan Ali (Adeso Africa) Alex De Waal (Tufts University) Follow the show...
Sep 06, 2020•1 hr 21 min•Season 2Ep. 18
India is fast becoming one of the world's great powers, set to take the number 2 or 3 slot by 2050. This is unless another country were to derail India's current path, and the list of potential derailers is fairly long. So this week we take a look into who will be India's great strategic threats over the next 3 decades, and where India sits in the power struggle for leadership of South Asia today. This weeks guests are Swaminathan Aiyar (CATO Institute) Dhruva Jaishankar (ORF/Brookings) Harsh V ...
Aug 23, 2020•1 hr 31 min•Season 2Ep. 17
Thailand has for a long time been the centerpiece of South East Asia, and many powers are starting to relearn its importance when it comes to shifting the direction of the region. With the boom in internationalism and regional trade, we also see a boom for drug cartels as well; so this week we layout just how chemicals in Southern China travel through a number of nations to be sold as Methamphetamine on the streets of Vancouver and Sydney. Guests this week are Matt Wheeler Josh Kurlantzick John ...
Aug 09, 2020•1 hr 13 min•Season 2Ep. 16
Kosovo has spent the last 2 decades fighting for its own independence, but with ever-increasing obstacles standing in their way will this mountainous nation ever achieve its lifelong dream? This week we take a look into the Western Balkans, Serbia's geopolitical aspirations, as well as Moscow's re-entry into an area it once viewed as its own backyard; and what it means for the future of the Kosovan people. On this episode Marija Ristic (Balkan Insight) Bodo Weber (Democratization Policy Council)...
Jul 26, 2020•1 hr 12 min•Season 2Ep. 15
