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Episode 307307 is the area that goes serving the state of Wyoming in 1907. The first traditional meter gasoline powered taxi cabs were introduced in New York City. Choose to win. When night rolling out of Lotus, my favorite night spot in the early arts. I was incredibly drunk. My taxi cab driver said, yes, throw up on my seats. It's a fine. So I immediately threw up everywhere else. What does that make me happy? Go, go, go!
Welcome to the 307th episode of the prop g.pob. In today's episode, we speak with Admiral James DeVrida, a retired four-star US naval officer and partner and vice chairman of Global Affairs for the Carl L group, a global investment firm. We discussed with the Admiral his thoughts on the elections happening all over the world, foreign affairs and national security. We also get an update on the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
I would love to have Admiral Stavrieta on the ticket. I find he's just incredibly measured, reasonable, thoughtful, relatable. He joked to me, I could never run for public office because I'm five foot, and he said, five foot seven, I thought, when you're standing on the bridge of an aircraft carrier, you're seven feet tall. This is someone who has made a huge difference and obviously is able to command the respect of thousands of people.
Okay, what's happening? I am in moonshine. I'm in Munich, where I'm taking my son to see the semi-finals of Spain versus France. It's got to go with me. Got to go with the Spaniards. Ola Espanola, France wins too much in football. So I'm rooting for the Spanish, but mostly I'm excited about tomorrow flying to Dortmund and saying England beat the Netherlands. Go team England! And of course, of course I will be in Berlin and my favorite so-ho else, best gym in Europe in my view.
I'm going to go see the final, which I'm super excited about and I'm hoping that it's team England versus, I don't know, versus someone. Anyways, Germany and football, what could be better than that? Beer. Beer. They also have that here. I'm excited to be here. Okay, what else is happening? So the thing that is dominating the new cycle day after day is whether Biden should drop out of the race or continue.
After July 4th, the president sent an open letter to Democrats saying that despite all of the speculation he is committed to staying in the race to the very end. On MSNBC, the president said he's getting so frustrated by the elites. What we've had here is that wealthy donors are reportedly threatening to withhold donations until Biden exits the race. The way I would describe it is if you bucket the donors into three buckets, the whales, the dolphins, and the minors, the small dollar donors.
I think the big donors, although I just spoke with Reid Hoffman and he says they're concerned, but I think they're just sort of a standstill whereas the dolphins, I would consider myself a dolphin, somebody gives thousands or tens of thousands, but not hundreds of thousands or millions.
There were sort of an open revolt that we're calling very explicitly for a change in the ticket. One of the things that frustrates me is that the amount of incendiary pushback you get, shut the hell up or just focus on Biden, we need to unite. It's almost, it feels almost like a, we accuse Republicans of being cultish when they have this new jerk reaction of being devoted to Donald Trump regardless of the situation or how insane his behavior is.
And I would argue there's just a cult is just as strong on the far left where you get this immediate pushback of sign up or shut the hell up. And the notion that there isn't enough time, which is sort of their go to. And also the only brand position right now around a path to presidency is I'm not him specifically I Joe Biden, not him Trump. And I don't think that's a compelling value proposition. And the notion that we don't have enough time is just in my opinion, fucking ridiculous.
Britain had an election start to finish in six weeks. France basically turned back the far right and changed the entire complexion of the race in about seven days. By the way, I think that's going to be very interesting to see what happens because the far left in my opinion can sometimes be almost as dangerous. The well meaning. But they can be bad. Maybe not as bad as the far right. I'm going to be very curious to see what happens in France over the next couple years.
Anyways, I think we could turn chicken should into chicken salad here. What would you do you the president obviously needs to step down. It's got to be him. There's no kind of viable way to ask those delegates to go somewhere else. They've already committed to Biden. But let's assume that he decides to drop out of the race with enough pressure enough voices.
Senators, Congress people, donations come to a halt. Finally, his wife says it would not be fair of me. My dear Joe to put you through this or to have you go through this. And I think a lot of this comes down to scenario planning. Right. So let's talk to the scenarios. By the way, scenario planning is not a means of trying to predict the future, but trying to imagine possible futures and then run a strategy or a course of action through all of those futures that has the best outcome.
And there's some basics here one or basic scenarios one he stays in the race and wins. Good for him. I think actually that's the worst possible outcome for Joseph Biden.
As someone who has been very involved in their parents life as they have gone into their 70s and 80s. I think president Biden based on what I have seen in terms of his cognitive decline is going to have a very difficult four and a half years ahead of him much less trying to experience that decline in what is the toughest job in the world.
I think this would just be a series of small private and public humiliations with people hiding him. Keep in mind the last three presidents to be reelected Clinton Bush and Obama were 52 when they were reelected on average versus 82.
The worst thing that could happen to his family and reputation for Joe Biden is if he stays in the race and he loses he then becomes this pariah which is the ultimate example historic example of malignant narcissism that not only heard a woman's right to bodily autonomy with bitter Ginsburg delayed a lot of judges getting appointed and Dianne Feinstein.
But Joseph Biden becomes a malignant narcissist that let us slowly burn to fascism when almost anyone else probably would have stayed off Donald Trump what we aren't focused on is that Donald Trump had a absolutely terrible debate and that anybody else with a pulse in my view.
And I want you to say with a pulse the Democratic bench is incredibly strong here how do we turn chicken should into chicken salad you have a eight six and then four member series of debates all held the two weeks before the convention you have Julie Louis.
We drive this host the convention it's a real convention where we nominate and select somebody America gets to know just how incredibly strong our ballot is and we mature I candidate the not only scares the shit out of Biden and tears him limb from limb in a debate which any of these wood Whitmer although publicly she said she's she's out but I can you imagine a new some on a debate stage with the president can you imagine the contrast in terms of height youths hair.
How articulate is how compassionate is how many how many people and how many I hops across the nation when interviewed by Fox CNN the BBC PBS would say I'm going to go with that young good looking guy a lot a lot we would go from being six points down which by the way is the most the greatest margin
to the upside that Trump has ever enjoyed since he started running for president 2015 to being a probably five or six we would see the greatest swing in presidential politics if we matured any one of these candidates and even more powerfully as we sometimes over estimate the power of the president would be the down ballot impact because if the nation got a chance to see and they would this would be the media spectacle the last decade if they got to see how powerful smart impressive Josh Shapiro is.
You know if they got to see vice president Harris on the debate stage where she shines versus what has been a fairly mediocre tenure as vice president they got to see Raphael war knock if they got to see there's just so many governors there's so many talented people let Amy Klobuchar back on stage to talk about any trust these are people to judge I mean this is an impressive team and the team of the best players wins and Democrats would win up and down the ballot it would basically be
a two week long commercial what to the voters who decide the selection haven't common they don't give that much of a fuck about politics like me in my 20s oh it's the election this week maybe I should vote and then they just start thinking about general perception of these folks let's strengthen the perception of the Democratic party from the top of the ticket all the way down and have a competition here not a coronation but I believe if president by the size of state in the race the strategy in the positioning of I'm the other guy which is his prime
primary foot forward is going to not get in our work at someone has been in branding his entire life I would love to be if I was a mandatious fucking didn't care about our country and had somehow decided to develop to fondness for fascism and was advising the Trump administration to be pretty easy to be a three point communications plan one
run a video loop of the zombie apocalypse of useful idiots that are elite colleges and say this is what happens when institutions become 98% Democratic as many of the faculties are of these elite institutions to run another video loop of what's happened in the downtown metro areas of some of the biggest cities on the west coast that are
democratic control and say this is what happens in democratic control of the city and finally three run a series of edited videos that basically portray the president as a vegetable and I just think I I think Biden is good a man as he is successful as a
president is he's had as a as better a president as he would be I think it's going to get slaughtered against the media machine and the perception of a more vigorous former president Trump I really hope that people who have influence over the president
sit him down and convince him that look boss you drop out of this race in this is scenario three and every room you walk into for the rest of your life you get a standing ovation and you are a top contender to be chiseled into the side of Mount Rushmore this is the path to a better America simply put and that is the president who has done an amazing job needs to drop out and we need to mature
battle test and rally behind another candidate such that America continues to push back on the greatest threat to democracy and the greatest threat of the 20th century and it's emerging again and it's a threat we thought was going away but with a but similar to Jason with just with a different hockey mass fascism is wearing its ugly head and we need we need to push back on it and this is not the guy to do it America has been the front line against fascism we will continue to need to be the front line against the gender apartheid that's taking place globally anti-semitism
polarization divisiveness extremism climate change and an expansionary Russia a China that has its eyes on Taiwan and common equality and let's be honest America is the most impressive country in the world we need to mature the most impressive person in the party to lead the Democratic party and be the front line and that is not the president
that's the bad news the good news is we have a ton of people who could hold that line it is time we need someone else to enter the race president Biden needs to step down we'll be right back for our conversation with Admiral James to breed us support for the show comes from mint mobile getting rid of your pricey phone bill could free up a lot of room in your summer budget it could mean extra snacks for your road trip or one of those splurgy over price martinis on a night out
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welcome back here's our conversation with Admiral James to breed us a retired four star us naval officer and currently partner and vice chairman of global affairs with the carl al group a global investment firm Admiral stever it is what is this podcast find you I am in the northern part of Florida near punitive beach it's one of the beach downs for Jacksonville
so I would just love to get your thoughts as someone who was whose name was constantly floated as a potential vice presidential candidate for secretary Clinton and other democratic hopefuls give us a sense for what you think is going on here and if you were to attempt to speculate what might play
out over the next week this is I don't know if it's the strangest political moment I've ever experienced maybe I'm just much more attend to it now but obviously a tremendous amount of doubt around the Biden campaign but their camp says they're steadfast in their commitment to stay in the race
but there's sort of this trip trip trip of party elders coming out and suggesting that he stepped down give us a sense of someone is pretty close to this and somebody thinks a lot about strategy what do you think is going on here that the public does or does not see and what do you think plays out
I'll give you the historical piece and I at least am old enough to remember a similarly difficult moment to absorb and that was of course watergate in the resignation of a president in advance of criminal proceedings being brought against Richard Nixon that's a long time ago so yeah we're in 50 years of kind of uncharted territory by comparison although we've seen now three impeachment
three impeachment one of Clinton and two of of Trump so we're not complete innocence in this sort of strange season but here's where I'm at on this one as I watched that debate I felt sad for the country the choice for being presented is at this moment a convicted felon with multiple multiple character flaws on full display and on the other side an individual for whom I have a lot of affection a lot of respect
and father time appears to me to have caught up with him and he is not from all that I can see in a good place to be prepared for four more years I think you could have a conversation if we were looking at it for a year in advance but four more years when you look at the progression so a bad set of choices in terms of how it plays out I can answer that three words I don't know
and nobody does literally nobody does not even Joe Biden in my view knows how this one's going to play out so what I think will happen over the next week to ten days of the democratic party is going to have to make a choice of either putting itself a hundred percent behind a president who seems physically frail and weak
and hope for the best in the fall or they're going to have to find a new path and I'll conclude with this professor there is nowhere in the constitution where it says Republican party democratic party someone said me the other day oh they have to go with Biden because the constitution demands neither constitution nor law govern political parties we've had a plethora of political parties in this country
and they get to make up the rules and so they have every opportunity to conduct a mini primary or they could pass the baton the comla they've got a convention coming up I think we are in extremely unpredictable waters does the military or the arms of do they have a voice here no and you ought to be very glad that they do not every military member
at every grade raises his or her right hand and swears and oath as follows I state your name to solemnly swear to support and defend the constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic that oath is sworn to the constitution the military will resolutely avoid being embroiled in this and that's the kind of republic we want to be
that's well said there's a lot that's uncomfortable about this but one of those things is do you see our adversaries being more emboldened while there's we're in a state of chaos do they do you think they sense weakness and tumult and are more inclined to be more offensive or bold in their actions I do and that is a significant risk and you can break it down frankly into two significant periods of high risk
one is from now through the election I think there the risk is going to be a mal actor deciding now would be good time to launch a for example massive cyber attack against the United States there's distraction there might not be a resolute response to that it's a little ambiguous that period between now in the election simply because mal actors Russia China North Korea
etcetera will have a tendency to believe or to distract it to respond that's one package of time after the elections got unfortunately I think we're going to have this inner regnum in which it would seem to me at least a better than even chance of one side or the other if it's a close election which it appears it probably will be there'll be a further series of legal challenges
there could be until or events like a January six who knows that second period of time until the inauguration of the new president I think is a second and somewhat even more risky period so yes we need to be leaning forward you asked about the military
the military is not looking internally but I assure you the intelligence agencies the joint chiefs of staff the combatant commanders in position in which I served for eight years two different combatant commands they are looking outward to try and see any signs of risk directed against the country during these very I think concerning periods from now through the inauguration
let's talk about the Middle East I'm SMBC you said that you believe there's a one in three chance at best for ceasefire and Gaza talk us through how you landed there number one the Israelis feel as though they have not yet completely dismantled the military capability of Hamas but they're close and you hear that from even from Prime Minister Netanyahu
certainly from the Israeli general staff so I think temporarily speaking the Israelis are closing in on eliminating Hamas and I believe I've said this to you before Scott but the military center of gravity is actually not Hamas the military center of gravity is that tunnel complex
400 miles of tunnels the Israelis are destroying those when those are done Hamas loses its opportunity to train equip organized and launch attacks as they did in October so that's a military equation that is coming to fruition I think that's pretty close so that gets me to still more combat opportunities and actions but
probably the Israelis are getting in a position to to make an accommodation on the Hamas side what I see is a lot of pressure it's been insufficient so far but increasing pressure from both guitar and from Egypt to get to the point of pressuring Hamas to take a deal I feel both sides are kind of closing toward it if you
ask me three months ago I think I was saying about a one in five chance now I'm up to about a one in three chance the the forces pulling against it or in addition to the two sides we just discussed Iran Iran would like nothing better than to see Israel continue to be targeted is resources
drain see this fighting going on in Gaza so Iran is kind of pulling against it but I'll conclude with this now the Iranians have had an election elected somebody I hate to use these two words in the same sentence or moderate but by Iranian standards are relatively moderate candidate there might be a little loosening of some of those activities so when you put all that together it's not a slam dunk but I think it's getting close to one in three maybe even a little
better than that right now you referenced in one of the strengths of American I agree is that the are you know our good men and women in uniform basically say all right good or bad decisions it's it's the oval offices decision and we respect the command and control structure here I thought it was really unusual or extraordinary that the IDF publicly came out and said we need to see an end of the war or calling for an end of the war
if that struck me as is as if like if you at some point came out and said to Trump or or Obama you know when in a conflict it's time to end this I thought that was pretty bold your thoughts beyond bold and from a US norm perspective that officer she or he would have been fired the next day we do not want our admirals and
general's no matter how senior opining publicly about what is in essence a political decision closest I can come to that by the way would be Douglas MacArthur five star general general of the armies victor of world war two now he he goes through and is in charge of Japan all going well he comes back in command for the Korean war and ultimately the president Harry Truman had
fired him first in subordination because he advocated ramping up the campaign possibly using nuclear weapons and attacking China we're not paying the generals to opine about that in public so yes I was surprised urging on shock and and finally I know the idea of extremely well spent four years when I was NATO commander my other side hustle was I was in charge of US Israeli military to military
relations so I was in Israel quite a bit became very good friends for example with general Benny dance the former head of the idea general Gabi Ashkenazi former head of the head of the idea of I can't imagine either and then while in uniform apining on that level of political controversy really shocking benchmark the idea of
these in technology and personnel relative to the other fighting forces in the Middle East or even say for example Russia the idea has advanced technology I'll give you three very concrete examples and they reportedly have nuclear weapons to the Israelis have among I'd say the top four certainly top five cyber capabilities offensive and defensive alike and they have a superb
air force that has the ability to conduct long range bombing attacks has fairly good refueling although they're buying additional capability from the US nobody else in the region remotely is at that level and then I think that's what they don't have is massive manpower there a nation of about nine million about seven million Jews so it's a limited manpower pool compared to Iran compared to any any other potential opponent in the region they don't have the big pool of manpower to draw
which hand of cards would you want to play you know as a as a general or an admiral I'd grab the Israeli military it's a it's a jewel you mentioned the tunnels and it strikes me that every time there's a major conflict out of it comes not a surprise but a piece of technology that played a bigger role like we saw tanks in world war one but my senses they really had their day when when Hitler you know rolled his tanks into Poland and was met with the Polish cavalry and we saw OK tanks are better
you know right and then we saw aircraft and jet engine you know all sorts of stuff radar it's you said there's two words and you said one of them that struck me that we're going to hear a lot more about in terms of military strategy and technology machinery one is tunnels and the other is drones I'd love your thoughts on that and if I if there are others that are coming out of this conflict
yeah tunnels actually have been with us in warfare for centuries but the degree to which Hamas was able to build this underground complex pretty striking given the restrictions on Hamas comparably the North Koreans have a very sophisticated underground tunnel connectivity system so yes tunnels I think are something that is old but is new again drones let's expand that idea let's say unmaned
so that means everything from satellites in space a satellite is a drone right it's an unmanned vehicle long dwell surveillance drones command control drones what you think of as reapers and predators attack drones carrying missiles surface drones the Ukrainian Navy is using surface boats drones to strike Russian
ships and drones go all the way to the bottom of the sea here's the third piece of the triad that I would mention its artificial intelligence and we're seeing the edges of that emerging now in Ukraine where AI is being used to direct these drone
drones on both sides of that firing like still very nascent but as I look at the future of warfare it's unmanned cyber it is tunnel complex is I'm going to throw in special forces into that mix and above all its artificial intelligence that will knit all of this together the truth that by now line kind of this five step step truce and it includes rebuild rebuilding of Gaza like realistically and I don't mean to sound like a nihilist or a fatalist here
is it any truce given the history here just kind of ready to be broken again I'm just I'm struggling you know I recognize that you're a military man but as someone who's been considered for these diplomatic posts what do you think is there a sustainable of state of being there right now or could could there be one phrase that has always stuck in my mind from former chairman of the joint chase general peace
chase general peace was asked a question roughly along those lines and he said war will continue in the Middle East until the people of the Middle East learn to love their children more than they hate their enemies that's a very profound line and against your point that is a possible to undo centuries frankly millennia of bitterness particularly between these three competing religious groups in the Middle East
a fabulous book about this written probably 20 years ago it's a great title the battle for God is by Karen Armstrong and it's a book about Judaism Christianity and Islam and they're seemingly endless ability to find their way to war and to bitterness and hatred
so the short answer to the question is until the people of the Middle East collectively this side they are going to reject that nihilistic aspects of their religious bitterness and disagreements and free themselves from the past in the bitterness over previous g-hods and massacres and camps and they're plenty on all sides
until that happens I don't think there's a quick solution now on a more positive note if there is a path forward I think the table stakes are a reconstruction of Gaza I think table stakes are a Arab security force not an Israeli security force an Arab security force that takes over security for Gaza
in third and most difficult for the Israelis to accept some kind of a path towards statehood I think if you could get in that zip code then you could build on the existing diplomatic relations between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors that's the point where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia could come in Scott and bring a lot of resources to bear on this problem
all those are possible but we we talked percentages before I think it's a one in ten chance that we can really resolve this with something as simple as a five step plan we'll be right back support for proctor you comes from life 360 we've all had the infuriating experience of getting ready to leave and then realizing you lost something you absolutely can't go about your day without your phone your wallet your keys I know I'm probably bringing back horrible anxiety memories just talking about it
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or marketing bring your team together on mirror your first three mirror boards are for free when you sign up today at mirror.com that's three free boards at m-i-r-o dot com President Biden was working all through the holiday weekend on a call with democratic governors he apparently said his help was fine it's just my brain and at a rally he said he beat Donald Trump but in the past
he said he also said his terrible debate performance was his fault no we fall mine nobody's welcome mine I'm not my fault no one else is all Joe versus himself you can find it right now over today explained we drop an episode every afternoon Monday through Friday you'll love it
since we last spoke a few months ago the state of play in Ukraine yeah let's catch up since you and I spoke last Russia has been on the front foot making some gains in the north east of Ukraine putting some pressure on the second largest city car key you could kind of see Putin with some air under his wings what has changed and how often to get to put these words in one sentence the US Congress did a good job I'll say him again US Congress did a good job finally having
exhausted all other possibilities they did a good job in that they provided sixty billion dollars in military aid which matches the roughly seventy billion dollars the European has put toward this project so now there's real combat equipment flowing forward and I feel the momentum is shifting back bottom line however is as I think I told you probably six months ago ultimately I think this will end in a
stalemate it'll end probably roughly where the battle lines are now drawn with Putin in control of about 15% of Ukraine Ukrainians will hate that but the quid pro quo for them would be security guarantees a path toward membership in NATO probably in the three year future and a membership in the European Union that's a complicated problem boiled down to a few sentences
by think that's how this one ends up and therefore I think will probably see more stalemate a little bit back and forth on these firing lines through the fall US election that'll be the moment for a negotiation the elections are there's a there's a there feels like there's a left word breeze coming out of Europe which this shocked people and I was reading about the elections in France and many of us were kind of celebrating the notion that it was great that
they kind of left the center left and then the far left got together and decided to coordinate to stave off the far right and I think initially there's a feeling of celebration but when I look at some of the far left policies that I think the center left will have to accommodate there they're fiercely anti NATO is my impression what do these recent events and elections the new parties what is the impact on NATO is an alliance moving forward
I will come to that essentially tactical question in a moment can we just step back for a moment and celebrate democracy in the last month over two billion people voted in elections that from what I can see we're free and fair and delivered some surprising results 900 million people voted in the Indian election and the outcome was kind of a surprise a body check to Mr Modi Mexico elects the first woman and the first Jew in the most Catholic and patriarchal country arguably in the Americas
in South Africa the ruling party gets a very significant body check in the European Parliament another 500 million people vote and it's a like you said a little bit of a right wing left wing kind of hard to read depends on the country and then you live in London Scott we see a complete shift in the government there coming from the left
and of course as you alluded to the results and France now you can like it or lump it on a variety of those different candidates and outcomes but I say hail to democracy it's delivering some surprising outcomes in some what appeared to me to be free and fair elections that's a good thing in my view
especially as we constantly as we should ring our hands about the authoritarianism in the world let's keep democracy in perspective as Churchill said the worst form of government except for all the others
so that's the strategic shoppo terms of NATO it's a it's a mixture of reactions that I have UK won't make a bit of difference UK is going to continue to strongly support NATO particularly having walked away from the European Union in France you're right to worry about the tenancies of the far left
Macron I think has a strengths and weaknesses don't we all but he's he has come around on NATO and I think he will work with the left to at least ensure that Ukraine continues to get support and that's the main ball right now Germany I think is going to continue to increase its defense budget
Poland is now spending as much on defense as the United States on a per capita basis maybe a little more believe it or not and there are other examples in the alliance so overall the elections are going to you know cause that transit land and bridge to creek just a little bit
but I think as I look at the NATO situation going forward I think the alliance is going to continue to be in a pretty strong position and and by the way I'll ask the follow-on question well wait a minute Admiral what if Donald Trump is elected president you know someone who has talked publicly about pulling out a NATO I don't see it I think Trump like all of us have strengths and weaknesses ultimately he's pretty transactional I think if the Europeans continue to increase their defense budget
and their spending goes up Trump would ultimately say yeah that's pretty good value for the dollar for us to stay with NATO so I think NATO comes out of all of this certainly not you know blaze a glory but as a pretty solid alliance
so it feels like we're going back to Ukraine there's some there's some winners right the I would I would imagine the industrial military complex or weapons producers in the U.S. or winners yeah I also imagine that China is a big winner they're getting cheaper oil and all of a sudden you know
they become an integral crucial partner for Russia give us your read on China's it relates to the war in Ukraine and what that means in terms of everyone's favorite you know bogeyman the possible invasion of Taiwan
yes yeah I'd love to let me start with a bit of advice for Vladimir Putin and I despise Vladimir Putin you know you may or may not know I have 50 medals from 29 different countries the foreign decoration on proudest of is that I'm sanctioned by the Kremlin I'd put that at the top of my metal stack
so I despise Vladimir Putin but if I were going to give him advice I would say president Putin be very careful of your relationship with China you are about to become an extremely junior partner in that relationship and think of it this way Scott you're the economist you you sit in Beijing
you look north what do you see you see Siberia this vast empty land space it's the size of the continental United States maybe 25 million people live there that's it that's Russia to the east of the euro mountains here's what is there oil gas diamonds rarers arable land timber fresh water you get the picture the Chinese look at that like my dog looks at a rib I steak it looks really good Putin is really taking Russia down a strategic rabbit hole here in terms of how the war in Ukraine
looks from Beijing you know if I were president she I would be scratching my head just over two years ago at the Olympics president Putin told his best friend forever president she hey don't tell anybody but I'm going to invade Ukraine and in five days I'm going to sweep that
country I'm going to grab that little comedian below to mirror zalinsky I'm going to throw middle of four to prison never to be heard from again and then I'm going to have control of Ukraine which is full of all kinds of wonderful natural resources oil and gas in the black sea huge
agrarian factory it's all going to be mine that's what she heard here's what he's seen he's seen two and a half years of the Russian military stumbling around incapable of overrunning a nation that it should have swept in the first week or two before the western aid got there now Putin has
missed the window to do that so she his first question is in terms of himself you know those Russian generals are pretty bad I wonder what my Chinese generals are like he has no idea he hasn't had a general here a shot fired an anger not a single Chinese general they haven't been in a war
of any kind since a dust up with Vietnam and not in a serious war since the Korean war that's 70 plus years ago so the point is she has a lot of doubt watching that he also has a lot of doubt about sanctions he knows there would be sanctions imposed if he attacked Taiwan he's looking at
what's happening to Russia so that's I think a second warning shot for him and thirdly if he's smart he's looking at how those Ukrainians are fighting like hell you know I don't know if the Taiwanese will fight but I've been to Taiwan I've met madamsai the former president president lie
the new president I've met their national security team I've seen their military in training exercises I think they'll fight I think they'll fight hard and by the way that island would be a resistance fighters dream it's mountainous wooded surrounded by water that's not an easy nut to
crack across a hundred miles of very difficult sea so bottom line I think she is playing this one very intelligently he's getting tons of free oil and gas from Russia he's insisting they hard pipe it to the east to him so the campion done he is doing everything possible to create that sense of junior partnership on the part of Putin I think he's succeeding at doing that and I think he's too smart to launch an invasion of Taiwan at least for the foreseeable future.
Admiral James DeVrida is a retired four-star US naval officer he is currently partner in Vice Chairman Global Affairs of the Carlyle Group a global investment firm and his chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rock of Fellow Foundation Admiral Stavritis has published 13 books on leadership
the oceans maritime affairs and Latin America as well as hundreds of articles and leading journals his forthcoming book The Restless Wave a novel of the United States Navy will be published on October 8th he joined us from his home in Florida in terms of economy of words admiral I just
I feel as if our listeners get so much inside in so little time so thanks to your thanks to your crisp insights thank you sir I'd love to come back and talk about World War II with you when the restless wave comes out I think it's upside-by I would love that thank you Admiral
I was a repopinus it's difficult but you need to train yourself to try and see the best in people when you don't know what's going on I'm getting I don't have the term as paranoid but I'm here in Europe and something I've noticed I was in Turkey we're on a boat in Greece and then we disembarked
in Vodrum which is a beautiful part of the world and we'd spent time there 10 years ago and we decided to go back Turkey has had what's the term I don't like Turkey's policies on Israel and I probably would have rethought the trip had we had more notice and it didn't involve rearranging
the travel plans for other people but the thing I noticed it really bummed me out when I was in Vodrum is that it felt like there were just no Americans and no Western Europeans there in a bummed me out I thought we were just withdrawing from one another yeah that we're sequestering it
it seems like we're turning into Western Europe and the US versus everybody else or it's not true that's probably not true but it does feel like we're separating and it's really disappointing and I was thinking about how wonderful my life has been as an adult because of
commercial jet transportation and a fairly neoliberal viewpoint across all nations including Turkey and the Gulf and Asia that really welcome people from different cultures and appreciate them and we sort of lay down our differences and enjoy each other's food and company and one of
the things I love about American universities is it brings in people from all over the world I just think you're less inclined to declare war on a nation if a lot of people in that nation have spent a lot of time with people from the other nation I think mingling mixing interracial
marriages are really important we are supposed to we are supposed to mix we are supposed to there was a reason that mutts are healthier and happier we're not supposed to sequester and fall in love and be friends and have political alliances only with people like us we benefit from this diversity
and I worry that we are in fact sequestering and bifurcating if you will anyways having said that I was at a table today and I'm saying here a Munich and some there was a table of four or five people next to me four guys and I don't know if they were speaking Arabic I think they were
and they started passing around a phone and I didn't know what was going on and it was clear it became clear they were showing videos of me and then all turning around and staring at me and I found it sort of threatening and intimidating and I went to kind of a dark place and then I
thought about it I thought they're probably just a group of guys here like me to see the semi-finals of Spain and France and recognize me from one of my videos and we're talking about it and so when they got up I said hey guys and I just tried to be friendly and nice and they were
friendly and nice back and I used it as a cautionary tale that it's easy to digress as you get older into this sort of the walls are closing in on you and you become less and less comfortable with odd situations and you have especially if you struggle a little bit with depression or anxiety
or anger as I do you have a tendency to make snap judgments and think the worst of people and the reality is the vast majority of people out there are like you they're good people who love their families looking for a nice time good citizens but it was sort of a I don't call it a cautionary tale but it reminded me that if I want to be happier and I want a better world I need to assume the best I need to see the world and see people as a glass half full.
This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer and Ju Burrows is our technical director thank you for listening to the Prof. G. Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network we will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy No Malice as read by George
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