The Prediction Trade - coming soon! Each episode features pros from the prediction trade: gamblers, traders, investors, data freaks, probability geeks and super-forecasters. We also introduce experts with proprietary forecasting models and insights into the outcomes of prediction market events. Whether you live to bet or bet to live, join us for the next episode of The Prediction Trade. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-...
Mar 15, 2021•1 min•Ep. 27
Rutgers University's Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet. Also, Trafalgar Group's Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release about the upcoming Georgia Senate races. Follow Harry Crane on Twitter @HarryDCrane, visit Researchers.One for his Models vs. Markets white paper and...
Dec 16, 2020•1 hr 18 min•Ep. 52
In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about "shy Libertarian voters," wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey. Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNational. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine....
Oct 21, 2020•46 min•Ep. 34
Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts ... There's something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers' Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas. TRENDS Our No-Fly Debate Zone Pratik Chougule Predicts a Wave TRADES Florida Blues Longshot, or EC Money? Follow Pratik Chogule on Twitter @pjchougule and hear him regularly...
Oct 08, 2020•31 min•Ep. 20
Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group's explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. TRENDS The Polls Are Wrong—Here's Why There IS a Shy Trump Voter Correcting for Social Desirability Bias Nate Silver and ...
Oct 04, 2020•1 hr 17 min•Ep. 27
Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing RBG and the Debates 2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads TACTICS: High-Performance Biden Hedges Swinging for the Swing States TRADES Popular Vote MoV Brackets Next European Leader Out on the Dime EC MoV Brackets...
Sep 26, 2020•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 51
Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he's sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason's contest for political traders TACTICS: Election Night The County Line Florida, Man & NC State The Websites You Need to Know TRADES Buy Biden Better The Safety Dance If/When to Board the Trump Train THE LUCKBOX LONGSHOT...
Sep 09, 2020•1 hr•Ep. 26
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds "The Keys to the White House" — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model's predictive accuracy to polling, and delves into each of Lichtman's proprietary 13 Keys. "The Keys to the White House" is available on Amazon. Follow Allan Lichtman on Twitter...
Sep 02, 2020•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 40
Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort's clemency, markets for a couple key battleground states, a more obscure Illinois-focused market, and the big one: "Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election?...
Aug 31, 2020•37 min•Ep. 32
When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois' governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by President Donald Trump in February 2020. In this provocative two-part series, the former governor tells all, revealing his frustration, wisdom, populist i...
Aug 27, 2020•1 hr 29 min•Ep. 44
Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called "mystery man" who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump's commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich's 14-year prison sentence. But that's not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone's recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Michael Flynn & Paul Manafort that you don't want to miss. In P...
Aug 20, 2020•1 hr 22 min•Ep. 41
David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver's ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas. Follow Rothschild on Twitter @DavMicRot TRENDS Does Kamala Harris Move the Needle? Does Nate Silver Deserv...
Aug 13, 2020•48 min•Ep. 37
Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as "baselevel," brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he's negative on negative risk and three trade ideas. TIPPLES Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaebach's An Ard Ri TRENDS The Lincoln Project Goes Down-Ballot &...
Jul 15, 2020•55 min•Ep. 42
Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement's likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade! Subscribe to David's weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can — and can't — know about the 2020 election here: https://t.co/d6naS4Kp6p?...
Jul 11, 2020•56 min•Ep. 33
This year's Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West's potential presidential bid and what it means for the stakes of the 2020 elect...
Jul 06, 2020•39 min•Ep. 29
Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden's health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama's fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing and ends the episode with the highest-payout "Luckbox Lockbox" trade sugg...
Jun 26, 2020•27 min•Ep. 28
Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets' political biases. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask questio...
Jun 25, 2020•36 min•Ep. 21
Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called "Negative Risk." Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott "Sazerac" Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade. TPT Mailbag Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt's Tweet Retreat & A Letter From Johnny Ringo TACTICS The Ultimate Intro to Ma...
Jun 12, 2020•57 min•Ep. 38
In this special episode, we walk Rachel "the Doc" Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and sharing her most promising forecasts. Part 1: Profiting From Political Partisanship (2:47) Part 2: The Election Whisperer Rings the TPT Trading Bell (19:5...
Jun 04, 2020•55 min•Ep. 50
Against the backdrop of President Trump's Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt's notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen. TRENDS (10:23) Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets TACTICS (22:21) Mastering the Tweet Markets: Monetizing the Middle with the Phillips Cond...
May 29, 2020•57 min•Ep. 46
In this bonus episode, TPT's Jeff Joseph joins Barstool Sports' Hard Factor News team to talk about politics, prediction markets and some unusual laws governing the state of Florida. Many thanks to Hard Factor's Wes, Mark, Will and Pat for letting us share this previously aired Hard Factor segment. Find them on the Barstool Sports Network. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT 5-Star Offer! Wan...
May 21, 2020•28 min•Ep. 39
TPT's Jeff Joseph moderates a prediction market-focused panel consisting of former guests Derek Phillips and Jason Pipkin as well as Pratik Chougule. Jeff asks the panelists about their trading philosophies, tactics and insights into specific markets on the PredictIt platform. This segment originally aired during hour four of American Civics Exchange and Old Bull TV's 2020 Political Prediction Conference on April 24. Special thanks to Old Bull TV's Flip Pidot for letting us share this segment of...
May 15, 2020•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 23
JMark — political trader, poker pro and attorney — shares the trading strategy that placed him among PredictIt's top 15 "oracle" traders. Mark uses poker disciplines to illustrate expected value (EV+), reveals an essential trading tool and rings the TPT bell, sharing his best bets in the prediction markets today, including some "locks." Follow JMark on Twitter @Pete_Monahan_JD. TRENDS NY Primary Color, Ventura Highway & Justin Amash-up TACTICS The Expected Value Trading Discipline, Bankroll ...
May 07, 2020•46 min•Ep. 36
Political trader and analyst Alex "Keendawg" Keeney rings the TPT bell on a big breaking news day. Alex shares his contrarian perspectives on exploiting bias as a prediction market trader, Joe Biden's sexual abuse allegations and a latecomer Libertarian to the presidential race. Follow Alex at starspangledgamblers.com TRENDS Jesse, Justin & White Male Prediction Market Traders TACTICS Fade the Fad TRADES Biden/Democratic Mispricing TX & SC On Sale The Ultimate House Party LUCKBOX OF THE ...
Apr 30, 2020•42 min•Ep. 35
Paul Krishnamurty, a professional London-based political gambler and analyst for Betfair, joins TPT to share his perspective on U.S. political wagering, the explosive growth of political wagering in the U.K., and five PredictIt markets picks. Follow Paul's blog at politicalgambler.com. TRENDS U.K. Wagering on U.S. Politics TACTICS Betting to the VP Shortlist (Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact) TRADES Buying Angela Rising Arizona Gideon's Bibliography The Next Blue Wave Buy Buy Biden LUCKBOX OF THE WE...
Apr 24, 2020•47 min•Ep. 28
James Carville, master political strategist, MSNBC analyst and self-proclaimed "man of many vices" joins TPT to share his thoughts on the Biden candidacy and several key PredictIt markets, including a high-payout longshot pick for Biden's VP! Carville dishes on Sanders supporters, "The Squad" and Trump, and reveals the magic number that he uses to calculate election probabilities and outcomes on. Carville shares his picks on a Democratic convention, the popular vote, Senate control, Mitch McConn...
Apr 21, 2020•52 min•Ep. 47
John Phillips, CEO of Aristotle, the engine behind PredictIt, joins TPT to talk about the convergence of politics and prediction markets, and developing an atomic bomb in college. To best understand PredictIt is to know its history. This bonus episode pulls back the curtain—trader demographics, new markets, and a new partnership. John also shares his perspectives as a 30-year politico on two of the most active markets: EU Next Leader to Leave Office and the Democratic VP Nominee. Have a suggesti...
Apr 16, 2020•49 min•Ep. 43
Hard Factor's Mark, Wes & Will share their takes on today's news, their worst mistakes and their best bets. TRENDS Dire Straits v Death, Cuomo's nipple rings, errant Burr & more. TACTICS Don't make these prediction market gambling mistakes! TRADES Will's VP pick Wes eyes a Biden layup Mark paints Texas (red v blue) LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: The tiger king's ears are ringing Follow @hardfactormark, @hardfactorwes & @hardfactorwill and listen to Hard Factor on your favorite podcast pla...
Apr 02, 2020•49 min•Ep. 31
EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS: iSavage Explains the "Always sell at 90¢" Rule TRENDS Cuomo, VP Stakes (Warren v. Harris) & Recession Outlook TACTICS So, really...do you always sell at 90¢? TOOLS @pi_twets for market alerts TRADES Wisconsin Bells Netanyahu—Yes or No? Fauci: 35 Years v. 35 Days LUCKBOX OF THE WEEK Hint: Burr—It's Cold in Carolina The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine, follow the link for a free 10-issue digital subscription today: getluckbox.com Join...
Mar 26, 2020•54 min•Ep. 24
HIGHLIGHTS: A revealing bonus episode with Anthony Scaramucci—hedge fund manager, author, political insider and former White House Communications Director for President Trump. Part 1: Pandemic, Politics, Trump & the Media Part 2: The Mooch Reveals His Best Trades TRADES Scaramucci Handicaps Clemency for Stone, the Swing States, Netanyahu, Sessions, Trump & Kim, Pence, Recession, Trump v Biden and his surprising VP pick! The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox m...
Mar 22, 2020•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 39
