After two days of talks in London, China and the US last week agreed in principle to de-escalate trade tensions. How that plays out is unclear. But in this new podcast, Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick explains the outlook for the world's two biggest economies and what it means for investors. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com --//-- This podcast is for general i...
Jun 16, 2025•10 min
Australia is in a surprisingly good position to weather the Trump administration’s trade policies, says Pendal’s head of government bonds TIM HEXT in this fast podcast “We have reasons to be optimistic down here, albeit it's not going to be quite as good as it could have been," says Tim. “We're going to get very close to all our long-term aspirations this year. Inflation is expected to end the year around 2.7% – within a whisker of the 2.5% target. Growth is likely to be around 2.25%, unemployme...
Apr 30, 2025•8 min
Fixed-income investors looking for lower yields – and therefore higher prices on their bond investments – may be disappointed with the recent cycle. But investors need not be concerned, since conditions still favour a rate-cutting environment, says Amy Xie Patrick, who leads Pendal’s fixed-income strategies. Underlying inflation is under control – supported by a looser US labour market which has not yet been impacted by President Trump’s mooted immigration crack-down. In Australia a tighter labo...
Mar 05, 2025•10 min
Investors could not be blamed for feeling a bit queasy at Donald Trump’s whiplash approach to tariffs. What does it mean for inflation and markets? “The tariff threat does add to this argument that inflation isn't about to come down anytime soon,” says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext. “The market is right to be a little bit concerned. Obviously free trade – or some version of free trade – is generally to the benefit of both parties. “The law of comparative advantage says you end up foc...
Feb 05, 2025•8 min
One of the surprises of 2024 was the absence of rate cuts in Australia. What happened and how long will the Reserve Bank sit on its hands? Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XI PATRICK explains in this review of 2024 and outlook for 2025. This is our final podcast for 2024. We wish our listeners a happy and safe Christmas and new year. We will return in 2025. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more a...
Dec 11, 2024•15 min
For years, Australian investors flocked to bank hybrid securities as a cornerstone of income-generating portfolios. Hybrids — debt instruments issued by banks that can convert to equity in times of trouble — have been popular with everyday investors due to their accessibility. But investors will soon need to find alternatives, after regulators announced plans to phase them out from 2027. In her latest podcast, Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick explains the options for investors....
Nov 26, 2024•8 min
This week’s Aussie inflation data was a mixed bag. While the headline number dropped into the RBA’s target range at 2.8%, the trimmed measure remained above target at 3.5%. It will take a few more quarters until the more important trimmed measure heads down towards 3%, says Pendal’s head of government bonds Tim Hext in a new fast podcast. Tim doesn’t expect a rates move before the RBA’s February meeting. “There won't be enough information by December. The market is 50-50 on whether they'll cut r...
Oct 30, 2024•7 min
Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK explains the latest market volatility, rates outlook and why she believes investors should be thinking about their defensive allocation. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com --//-- This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should not be relied upon ...
Aug 23, 2024•9 min
August is a live meeting in terms of potential rate changes – and next week’s CPI figures will be key to the decision, says Pendal's head of bond strategies Tim Hext in this fast podcast. A higher-than-expected CPI number could prompt a hike. A lower-than-expected number would likely mean rates stay where they are. However, if an August rate hike eventuates, investors should largely ignore it, Tim argues. “I think they will be cutting rates early next year. Whether they hike in early August or n...
Jul 24, 2024•9 min
Investors have been getting used to good news on inflation. But does the latest US data suggest we’re getting ahead of ourselves? In this new fast podcast Pendal’s head of bond strategies TIM HEXT reviews the evidence and explains why he still thinks there's juice left in bonds. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com --//-- This podcast is for general information purposes only, should...
Feb 20, 2024•7 min
Reckon you’ve got 2024 figure out? Stay on your toes, because markets could go in any direction this year, says Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK in our latest podcast. In this edition Amy explains the risks that investors may not be considering and how she is preparing her income portfolios. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is a global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com --//-- This podcast is for general in...
Feb 13, 2024•8 min
Have investors missed the boat on bonds after they touched 5% in October? No, says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext. In this latest Pendal fast podcast he explains why. "When I look across the spectrum of what you can buy in bonds, government bonds are around 4.5%, state government bonds 5.25% and bank debt around 6%. "On term deposits, my question to investors would be: Okay, let's assume term deposits are at 5% and you're locking yourself into those with no liquidity. "Where do you th...
Nov 29, 2023•7 min
US and local bond yields are hitting multi-year highs. Why is it happening and what’s next? Resilience in the US economy is the main factor, says Pendal’s head of bond strategies Tim Hext. That’s due to the dominance of fixed-rate loans there and Joe Biden's big-spending government. Meanwhile the Australian economy is holding up better than expected and the fixed-rate cliff hasn’t impacted as much as people thought. Bond investors should reward investors in two ways, argues Tim: the return and t...
Oct 31, 2023•6 min
China’s political and economic outlook has a huge impact on Australian investors. In this new podcast, Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK explains the latest. An excerpt: Why doesn’t Beijing pump stimulus into the Chinese economy as other countries do? “We have to remember that the Chinese political system is not a democratic system, and its principles are very socialist at heart,” says Pendal’s head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick. “A very classic characterisation of the C...
Oct 25, 2023•11 min
You’re probably thinking “so far, so good” on rate rises and the economy. No evidence yet of a sharp slow-down and fixed mortgage holders seem to be adjusting ok to higher rates, partly due to strong employment. But we're only halfway through the six-month fixed-rate cliff period, points out Pendal’s head of government bond strategies TIM HEXT in this latest fast podcast. “It's definitely too early to say there hasn't been any significant damage,” Tim says. What’s next then? Find out in this fas...
Aug 29, 2023•8 min
The Albanese government is getting ready to launch Australia’s first sovereign green bonds, which are designed to fund public net-zero projects. As with all new green bond issuances, investors will be looking to make a good return and a positive impact. When it comes to positive impact, investors should be looking “additionality” in the projects funded by Albo's green bonds, say Pendal’s head of credit and sustainable strategies George Bishay and ESG credit analyst Murray Ackman. In other words,...
Aug 09, 2023•13 min
The RBA seems happy that inflation is heading in the right direction, but it’s a difficult path from here to the 2-3% band, notes Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext. A soft landing is more likely, but we're unlikely to see rates cuts unless the economy turns weaker. Here's a quick overview from Pendal portfolio manager Tim Hext, who heads up government bond strategies for our Income and Fixed Interest team. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/...
Aug 02, 2023•8 min
Inflation isn’t under control and the RBA still has work to do, argues Oliver Ge, an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal's income and fixed interest team “I think at 4.1% we're still at least a couple of hikes away,” says Oliver in our latest fast podcast. Oliver points to three things blunting the impact of rate rises: “Firstly, the Australian economy is demonstrating a level of resilience that's greatly surpassed most expectations. “Secondly, there seems to be a wage-price spiral in certai...
Jul 19, 2023•8 min
It looks like RBA boss Phil Lowe's “got one more hike he's itching to do” in July or August, says our head of government bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast “The inflation data will start to turn down from that point,” says Tim. “The RBA should then use that as a reason to be on pause for the rest of the year. “Looking further beyond, towards the middle of next year, I think what you're going to see is potentially the US starting to cut rates early next year. “With that backdrop,...
Jun 14, 2023•9 min
China has emerged quickly from the zero-Covid era, but a property slowdown is holding the economy back. What does that mean for fixed income investors? “We think there are many strong reasons both cyclically and structurally to be favouring fixed income and bonds in portfolios right now," argues Pendal's head of income strategies, Amy Xie Patrick. “The way the China growth story is shaping up for 2023 presents as one of the top reasons to be buying bonds right now.” --//-- Find out more about Pe...
Jun 06, 2023•7 min
Consumers are feeling gloomy, but are we still headed for recession? With inflation “sufficiently well-behaved”, the main factors to watch now are unemployment and wages, says our head of bond strategies Tim Hext in our latest fast podcast. Here Tim explains the outlook for wages and jobs -- and what it tells us about the likelihood of recession in the US and Australia. He also explains why we are unlikely to see rate cuts this year. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at...
May 24, 2023•8 min
How should fixed interest investors think about the turmoil among US regional banks? In our latest fast podcast, Pendal assistant portfolio manager Oliver Ge gives a plain-language explanation. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com --//-- This podcast is for general information purposes only, should not be considered as a comprehensive statement on any matter and should...
May 17, 2023•7 min
There are a mind-boggling number of issues investors need to stay on top of in 2023: the potential for recession, government intervention, wages growth, inflation and rates to name a few. And there are differing views on these issues across the investing spectrum. To cut through the noise and find some answers, our latest podcast brings together two of Pendal’s top investment managers: our head of equities Crispin Murray and head of government bond strategies Tim Hext. For more information about...
Mar 29, 2023•38 min
An economic recession is highly likely in 2023, says Pendal’s head of income strategies Amy Xie Patrick. How should investors respond? EXCERPT: We think an economic recession is highly, highly likely in 2023. How should investors be positioning their portfolios? An easy decision is to consider long-duration government bonds, says Amy. Regardless of whether your view is of a mild or a deep recession, bonds should rally when recessions hit. This is why being in duration or government bonds should ...
Feb 22, 2023•6 min
Internet search has been upended by ChatGPT – an example of “generative artificial intelligence” that can scan existing knowledge and create new and original data such as images, text and music. Will programs such as ChatGPT bring real, sweeping change to everything we know? Or is it just the next dot com bubble? Pendal’s head of global equities ASHLEY PITTARD explains in this new Pendal Fast Podcast. --//-- Find out about Ashley Pittard's Pendal Concentrated Global Share Fund at pend.al/COGS Pe...
Feb 14, 2023•8 min
In our final fast podcast for the year, Pendal’s head of multi-asset Michael Blayney talks about the lessons of 2022, how he’s valuing major asset classes right now and suitable portfolio settings. Pendal's fast podcast series will return in 2023. --//-- Find out about Pendal’s multi asset funds at pend.al/multiasset Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....
Nov 23, 2022•6 min
What will prompt central banks to stop hiking interest rates altogether? Look to wages for the answer, says Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK Excerpt: “The US Fed is looking for inflation not only peaking but coming down very convincingly to its 2% target,” says our head of income strategies, Amy Xi Patrick in her latest fast podcast. “Wage growth in Australia is only at around about 2.5% to 3%. “The RBA is comfortable for it to go up to 3.5%, maybe even temporarily to 4%.” “Wag...
Nov 08, 2022•8 min
There are signs that inflation has peaked and is due to come off in the next few quarters. That would invariably take us to a position, maybe in Q2 2023, where it looks quite compelling for us to own bonds, says Oliver Ge, an assistant portfolio manager with Pendal's Income and Fixed Interest team. "At that point you’d already see inflation pressures come off and growth indicators start to materially deteriorate. "Then central banks will in all likelihood tilt their reaction function to be more ...
Nov 01, 2022•7 min
What do this week's Budget and inflation numbers — and next week’s likely 25-point rate rise — mean for 2023? And how will that impact the role of bonds in portfolios? Here's a quick explanation from Pendal’s head of government bond strategies Tim Hext. --//-- Find out more about Pendal's fixed income strategies at pend.al/fixedinterest Pendal is an independent, global asset manager. Find out more at pendalgroup.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information....
Oct 26, 2022•9 min
Bonds can be an appropriate investment in a hiking cycle – as long as you know what to look for, argues Pendal’s head of income strategies AMY XIE PATRICK Excerpt: "Even though central banks may need to keep on hiking, now their mantra is very well flagged to the market there is hope that bonds do better in the second half of this hiking cycle. "It does mean you probably want to look at having bonds in your portfolio as a defensive pillar, more towards the longer end of curves. "Because the shor...
Oct 11, 2022•9 min
