Today we discuss gold’s moves ahead of The Fed's July meeting, ANZ Bank's forecast on the Silver market entering a period of tightness unseen for decades, and key targets to watch for the Aussie dollar. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss Ni...
Jul 13, 2023•28 min
Today we discuss gold’s recent dip to US$1,923, how investor interest is neither bullish nor bearish and we take a deep look at past exits from yield curve control and what pitfalls the Bank of Japan may face if they try to normalise policy. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor....
Jun 30, 2023•28 min
In this episode The Federal Reserve Bank pauses but assures the market there’s more hikes to come, the Aussie dollar hits its stride but does it have staying payer? Silver’s price moves remain tied to China’s slow moving economy and we have some very bullish price targets for gold. Recorded at the Mines and Money Conference Melbourne - https://minesandmoney.com/melbourne/ PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/p...
Jun 20, 2023•26 min•Ep. 39
In this episode we look at the reason’s behind gold’s pivot from 2075 back into the 1940s, how the markets appear to be pricing in a smooth debt ceiling negotiating, and what’s causing the Aussie dollar to fall. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss Nick Frap...
May 30, 2023•16 min
In this episode we look at the ‘powerful macro themes and powerful macro risks’ providing support for gold, how US loan officers are tightening lending conditions in spite of some quantitative easing attempts and why gold could reach US$2,500. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/...
May 15, 2023•32 min•Season 3Ep. 39
In this episode we look at what is keeping gold at US$2,000 per ounce and how big bar demand is increasing despite the elevated price. We discuss managed money’s pivot into gold, how silver’s is riding both gold and copper’s coattails, and why the Fed’s higher for longer rate narrative is about to end. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/sh...
Apr 17, 2023•39 min•Season 3Ep. 38
In this episode we analyse why gold has fallen back from its peak despite recent US banks collapsing, we look at the reasons behind the Fed rate hike and why banks will be forced to raise rates, leading to more pressure this tightening cycle. Time Stamps 1:00 – The gold trade isn’t crowded despite gold’s run 3:55 – Traders didn’t want to be short gold with the swirl of news flow 5:25 – Au lost momentum at US$2,000, support remains above US$1,900 10:45 – Litigation in the pipeline 12:10 – Substan...
Mar 29, 2023•36 min•Season 3Ep. 37
In today’s episode we look at the upcoming FOMC in March and discuss the mismatch between narrative and the futures market when it comes to what the Fed will do next. Nick dissects China’s recent National Party Congress, what the GDP expectations China has put forward mean and the hints which suggest China is looking to internalise consumption. Plus, as gold continues to hug the US$1,850s level, Nick casts his technical lens over the price targets that matter right now and why the US$1,800 level...
Mar 09, 2023•30 min•Season 3Ep. 36
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why central banks increased their gold position in 2022, why the Federal Reserve Bank may hike a few more times and a key multiyear gold price target to watch. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss ...
Feb 20, 2023•35 min•Season 3Ep. 33
Can gold stay above US$1,800? In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the potential Fed pivot fed a short covering rally in gold, why the performance of the Australian dollar hinges on China’s economic reopening, and key price targets ahead for the yellow metal. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1W...
Dec 22, 2022•22 min
Are bond and equity asset markets pricing interest rate expectations in? In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why the higher for longer rate narrative is here to stay, we question if equity markets have factored this in, and what this means for gold... PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJ...
Nov 10, 2022•19 min•Ep. 31
China’s political reshuffle and the impacts for Australian dollar In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss why gold short positions are still increasing, why central bank policies will keep markets transfixed for some time, and the impact of China’s 20th National Congress meeting on the Australian dollar. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Sp...
Oct 27, 2022•32 min•Ep. 30
Precious metals price action to watch out for In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how managed money is impacting gold positioning, why the Taylor Rule suggests the Fed won’t pivot, and how China’s 20th national congress meeting this week is likely to create a new political cycle in the middle kingdom. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 S...
Oct 11, 2022•31 min•Ep. 29
When it comes to gold, in the end it’s still a rates market In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the Fed’s ongoing battle with inflation, the critical importance of energy security, and what’s really driving the gold price. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor...
Sep 26, 2022•30 min
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the rotation from gold into US dollars, the dataset that spooked gold markets, and the continuing central bank policy divergence. Recorded Friday 16th PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss Nick Frap...
Sep 19, 2022•32 min•Ep. 27
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how gold failed to move up through a key indicator, how silver appears to have decoupled from copper, and why a once in a decade US dollar rally can trigger a crisis somewhere else. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s...
Aug 31, 2022•28 min
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the dovish interpretation of the Fed’s July meeting and what that means for gold, why the Australian dollar is still under pressure, and if the Chinese property woes are a contagion event or if the CCP have the problem contained. PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show...
Aug 04, 2022•35 min
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how gold is treading water ahead of the July Federal Open Market Committee, how much higher can the US dollar go, and will the Fed start cutting rates in 2023? PODCAST INFO: ABC Refinery website: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pod-of-gold/id1592958488 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1WCw03OP7dsWJFrGR2l5Zb RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/66995438/podcast/rss ...
Jul 26, 2022•24 min•Season 2Ep. 22
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the impact dollar strength is having on gold and the increasing yield gap between the US dollar and major currencies. Finally, we ask, is there scope in the system for a shock from a highly valued US dollar? Time Stamps: · 0.41 – Gold longs aren’t strong, but shorts aren’t convinced · 3:35 – Point n Figure suggested in April gold would fall to US$1,738 · 6:40 – Gold looked like an outlier compared to inflation linked bo...
Jul 10, 2022•35 min•Season 2Ep. 21
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, we look at what managed money’s lack of rotation is signalling about stagflation fears, the G7’s decision to ban Russian gold imports, how the Fed will manage rate expectations against inflation plus the Bank of Japan’s intervention in their bond market and the inflection point in the Japanese yen. Time Stamps: · 0:40 – Managed money not rotating into gold despite stagflation being broadly Au positive · 3:42 – Gold has held technical support · 5:24 – Price ta...
Jun 29, 2022•30 min•Season 2Ep. 20
Recorded at the Australian Gold Conference on 14th June, in this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell start with ‘the market that matters the most’, the Fed’s 75 basis point increase, discuss liquidity fears not seen since the financial crisis and how gold is holding up remarkably well... Time Stamps: · 1:29 – Higher interest rates triggered a ‘violent’ response from markets · 6.48 – Fed have made it clear they will do whatever it takes to reduce inflation · 9:55 – Termin...
Jun 20, 2022•28 min•Season 2Ep. 19
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the confluence of Fibonacci levels in gold, the duality of views coming from the Federal Reserve Bank, and what Dr copper can tell us about silver. Time Stamps: · 1:06 – Gold closes above the weekly cloud · 5:16 – Spot gold and the confluence of Fibonacci levels · 8:19 – Point n Figure suggests there’s room for gold to reach US$1,900s · 9:58 – Shorts are driving silver but for how much longer? · 14:10 – The duality of v...
May 31, 2022•31 min•Season 2Ep. 18
Recorded Live from RIU Sydney 2022 In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the US dollar may be nearing the peak of its 39-month cycle, why Russia’s war on Ukraine increased inflation risks and what these mean for spot gold. Time Stamps: · 0:40 — US dollar strength and real yields · 2:12 — Russian invasion worsens inflation outlook · 3:53 — Key factors driving the gold price · 7:22 — What net positioning in the US dollar reveals · 10:31 — The importance o...
May 06, 2022•32 min•Season 2Ep. 17
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how one indicator would have tested the resolve of most traders, the absolute smashing for most currencies against the US dollar, why Brent’s retreat won’t last and what could cause gold to jump despite the current strong dollar. Time Stamps: · 0:40 — Gold’s shooting star was a warning · 4:28 — An unpleasant test for traders · 6:31 — Silver’s falls outside the cloud and challenges the bullish view · 12:02 — The DXY and ...
May 01, 2022•30 min•Season 2Ep. 16
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss managed money’s increased short position for gold and silver’s recent bounce. Nick delves into Russia’s recent monetary theatre, then takes a deep look at the bullish predictions for Brent, and crude’s correlation to gold. Time Stamps · 0:44 — Managed money is on the defensive, yet technical support for gold is strong · 7:16 — Nick’s bullish call for silver played out, where to next? · 10:18 – Russia, rubles, and gold ·...
Apr 19, 2022•26 min•Season 2Ep. 15
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the muted moves in spot gold and how support for the yellow metal is inching higher. Nick takes a deeper look at the dollar cost of China’s relentless pursuit of Covid zero, and what the rumblings in the Middle Kingdom’s property sector may mean for the Australian dollar. Time Stamps: · 1.00 – Fourth consecutive week of managed money easing positions in gold · 2.00 – Gold touched and rejected US$1,890 on a weekly basis ...
Apr 07, 2022•22 min•Ep. 14
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell look at how Managed Money has reduced their exposure to gold for the third week in a row, why the Fed’s terminal limit is higher than we think, and what the synchronised slowdown in two of the world’s largest economies means. Time Stamps: · 0.55 – Managed Money has reduced their positioning in gold three weeks in a row · 3.10 – Ichimoku weekly standard line has been providing excellent support for gold · 5.05 – Outflows from go...
Mar 30, 2022•25 min•Season 2Ep. 13
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the tilt of positioning in gold, some bullish price targets for silver and why the Fed didn’t want to spook the market. Plus, we have an update on China’s property sector, as well as a look at the LME’s day of reckoning last week. Time Stamps: · 0.57 – Why gold is difficult to trade during news flow · 3.10 - Managed Money positioning · 7.01 – Candle hints at gold price reversal, Ichimoku cloud confirms it · 8.06 – ‘Silv...
Mar 17, 2022•27 min•Season 2Ep. 12
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss the different factors influencing gold and silver, soaring commodity prices and the risks to the market plus how the changing of seasons may slow Russia’s invasion in the Ukraine. Time Stamps: · 1.30 – Gold has had two cracks at US$2,000 per ounce · 3.53 – Managed money positioning – shorts are driving gold buying · 6.07 – The technical picture for silver is strong · 10.20 – Copper reacting to sanctions on Russia · 11.4...
Mar 08, 2022•29 min
In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nick Frappell & Shae Russell discuss how the Russian-Ukraine conflict may lead to a less aggressive Fed tightening cycle for 2022, silver’s recent short covering and what Russia’s invasion means for gold in the weeks ahead. Time Stamps: · 1.00 – Gold volatility and managed money positioning · 4.00 - ‘War drives up the price of gold but the news flow can drive it up and down tremendously’ · 5.30 – How gold is behaving compared to other currency pairs · 6.49...
Feb 28, 2022•28 min•Season 2Ep. 10
