Trade War Ends Before It Begins – Ep. 354
May 22, 2018•36 min
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Episode description
Solid Gains Today in the Major Stock Market Averages
We had solid gains today in the major stock market averages; the DJIA putting in the largest percentage gain, just over 1.2% or 298 points. I think at the highs, the Dow was up 370 and change, so a strong day, S&P, NASDAQ also up not quite as much calculated as percentages. The Russell 2000 was not up as much as the other averages but it is at a record high again today. I think it's the Russell 2000 that ultimately could make the biggest percentage drop once stock market traders start to figure out what's actually going to happen.
A Lot of Saber Rattling and Not a Lot of Fencing
But in the meantime, today, they were celebrating the cease fire in the trade war. Although, I don't think I should call it a cease fire because nobody actually fired a shot. It has been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle, I mean there was basically a lot of saber rattling and not a lot of fencing. But I think what happened today is that we callee a truce. Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there is not going to be a war.
The Markets Have Not Adequately Priced in the Cost of a Trade War
And I think the markets were relieved, and so we got a relief rally based on that good news. Although I don't think the markets sufficiently priced in the cost of a hot trade war. I know Donald Trump said, "Oh, trade wars are easy to win." Believe me, if they were easy to win, we would have waged one. They're not easy to win. I don't think the markets really discounted how bad it would have been had the cold war turned hot.
Peace Dividend
Nonetheless, the fact that it wasn't going to happen - I think most people would agree that a trade war would be bad, and if now there is going to be trade peace, well there is a peace dividend and so we got that today.
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We had solid gains today in the major stock market averages; the DJIA putting in the largest percentage gain, just over 1.2% or 298 points. I think at the highs, the Dow was up 370 and change, so a strong day, S&P, NASDAQ also up not quite as much calculated as percentages. The Russell 2000 was not up as much as the other averages but it is at a record high again today. I think it's the Russell 2000 that ultimately could make the biggest percentage drop once stock market traders start to figure out what's actually going to happen.
A Lot of Saber Rattling and Not a Lot of Fencing
But in the meantime, today, they were celebrating the cease fire in the trade war. Although, I don't think I should call it a cease fire because nobody actually fired a shot. It has been more of a war of words than a real conventional battle, I mean there was basically a lot of saber rattling and not a lot of fencing. But I think what happened today is that we callee a truce. Both sides sheathed their sabers and agreed that there is not going to be a war.
The Markets Have Not Adequately Priced in the Cost of a Trade War
And I think the markets were relieved, and so we got a relief rally based on that good news. Although I don't think the markets sufficiently priced in the cost of a hot trade war. I know Donald Trump said, "Oh, trade wars are easy to win." Believe me, if they were easy to win, we would have waged one. They're not easy to win. I don't think the markets really discounted how bad it would have been had the cold war turned hot.
Peace Dividend
Nonetheless, the fact that it wasn't going to happen - I think most people would agree that a trade war would be bad, and if now there is going to be trade peace, well there is a peace dividend and so we got that today.
Our Sponsors:
* Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com
* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com
* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai
* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com
* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
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