Tariffs Are a Tax: Price Shock Ahead

[SPEAKER_00]: Make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. [SPEAKER_00]: One minute, you're up half a minute and soybeans in the next bull. [SPEAKER_01]: Your kids don't go to college and they've reduced their venture with me. [SPEAKER_01]: The revolution starts now, starts. [SPEAKER_00]: We have to pass the bills so that you can find out what is in it. [SPEAKER_01]: Cardinals machine back off! [SPEAKER_01]: You are about to enter the Peter ship show.

[SPEAKER_01]: If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to. [SPEAKER_01]: This is the last stand on Earth. [SPEAKER_01]: The Peter ship shall be solved. [SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness. [SPEAKER_01]: You're money. [SPEAKER_01]: You're storing this for your freedom. [SPEAKER_01]: The Peter ship shall. [SPEAKER_00]: Welcome everybody.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, the last podcast I did was on Sunday night. [SPEAKER_00]: It was a live special of the shift gold Friday market rap, which I did on a Sunday because I was still in El Salvador.

[SPEAKER_00]: on Friday and it was Thursday and Friday where you had the all out of salt on gold and silver with gold dropping $500 and ounce on Friday alone right the biggest one day drop ever dollar wiseman I remember when gold was less than $500 an ounce little on dropping by $500 an ounce silver dropped $30 in a single day

[SPEAKER_00]: both hit all time record highs the prior day gold was close to fifty six hundred and silver had topped a hundred twenty one dollars an ounce and it it wasn't a shortage of people on the financial media saying you see we told you go was a bubble we told you silver was a bubble right they thought it had popped [SPEAKER_00]: They don't understand that nothing changed, but as I mentioned, not I don't want to repeat what I said on Sunday.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you didn't see that video, go to my SHIFT Gold YouTube channel and watch it. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it was the most popular Friday market wrap. [SPEAKER_00]: I've done it over 200,000 people who watched it. [SPEAKER_00]: So it was, I guess, a timely podcast. [SPEAKER_00]: But if you're not one of those 200,000 people, [SPEAKER_00]: then you should go check it out. [SPEAKER_00]: Because I discussed the plot behind the sell off.

[SPEAKER_00]: I didn't think it was a random event. [SPEAKER_00]: I thought it was strategically done to achieve a certain result. [SPEAKER_00]: But the people who, you know, we're writing the obituaries on the gold and silver bull market, I think we're premature. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't think you're going to immediately hit new highs, certainly not in silver, because, you know, new highs are 30% higher, right, you're at $90, you need to go up a third, [SPEAKER_00]: increase.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was getting difficult, you know, for people to buy silver when it was rising so fast. [SPEAKER_00]: It was a little scary. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not nearly a scary now. [SPEAKER_00]: Now that you know where the top was and that you're clearly not buying it, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You're buying a very substantial pullback. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, you're still having to pay $90, which may seem like a high price. [SPEAKER_00]: But it's thought $120, [SPEAKER_00]: some people paid 120.

[SPEAKER_00]: So you're getting a good buy at 90. [SPEAKER_00]: And the same thing with gold, 5,000-lar gold, yeah, it seems expensive, but somebody paid 5,550. [SPEAKER_00]: So you're not buying a high. [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, those are not the highs. [SPEAKER_00]: This bull market has got years and years and years to run. [SPEAKER_00]: So we're not even in the vicinity of a high.

[SPEAKER_00]: But you know, there are a lot of people, I think, [SPEAKER_00]: that were hesitant to come into the market because they were waiting for a pullback. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, we had it. [SPEAKER_00]: It's over. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to wait for it anymore. [SPEAKER_00]: It's now behind us. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that's going to be particularly important in the mining stocks.

[SPEAKER_00]: You guys, I think one of the reasons that the mining stocks were not rising spectacularly when gold and silver were making these new highs. [SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, the day that silver made, it's new high above, you know, 120, what most silver stocks were down on the day. [SPEAKER_00]: So investors were very hesitant thinking that there was going to be a big pullback. [SPEAKER_00]: Now they were right. [SPEAKER_00]: We did have a big pullback.

[SPEAKER_00]: But now it's in the past. [SPEAKER_00]: So I think some confidence is going to slowly be rebuilt. [SPEAKER_00]: And I do believe that silver stocks and gold stocks will make new highs before gold and silver make new highs. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's very bullish. [SPEAKER_00]: But it also means that it's a great opportunity to buy into the gold and silver mining stocks. [SPEAKER_00]: So don't just buy the physical metals and you can do that obviously at shift gold.

[SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, as I was warning, [SPEAKER_00]: The premiums have widened, so even though silver went way down, the silver coins and bars that we sold, they went down too, but not as much. [SPEAKER_00]: The drop wasn't as great because the spreads went up because there was a lot of physical demand to buy the dip. [SPEAKER_00]: The big collapse happened into paper market where there is no physical. [SPEAKER_00]: So, that's another factor that you have to bear in mind.

[SPEAKER_00]: I do expect over time the demand to increase and outstrip the supply and so that's going to keep pressuring the premiums on especially the smaller coins and bars, you know, one ounce coins. [SPEAKER_00]: So, get them now, you know, go to shift gold and get them, but these mining stocks [SPEAKER_00]: I'm confident they're making new highs long before long before silver.

[SPEAKER_00]: I think silver stocks will make new highs by a decent margin before silver gets back above 120 because I think the fear that kept the silver stock investors on the sidelines. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that will slowly subside as the market starts to repair from the decline and move higher.

[SPEAKER_00]: to what's happening in Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: And look, this is obviously not a surprise to my audience. [SPEAKER_00]: I have been saying this, I've been warning about this. [SPEAKER_00]: I've been telling you crypto guys that the game is over and you gotta get out while you can. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, Bitcoin right now is at 72,500 now. [SPEAKER_00]: It's down, if you want to compare it to gold, Bitcoin right now is 14.5 ounces of gold.

[SPEAKER_00]: In 2021 at its peak, it was 36.3 ounces of gold. [SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin is now down 60% 60% priced in gold since it's November 2021 high. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: This is 2026. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, it's not November, but it's more than four years ago, not quite five. [SPEAKER_00]: But down 60%. [SPEAKER_00]: And think about all the things that have happened with Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: Because back then, we didn't have the Bitcoin ETFs yet.

[SPEAKER_00]: We didn't have the Bitcoin president. [SPEAKER_00]: We didn't have the Bitcoin strategic reserve. [SPEAKER_00]: We didn't have micro strategy. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm going to talk about them in a minute. [SPEAKER_00]: And all the other copycat Bitcoin treasury companies, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: uh, despite all that, it went down by 60% in terms of gold, but even if you want to price it in dollars, Bitcoin is less than 6% above its $201 high in dollars in dollars, what a lousy return [SPEAKER_00]: on Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: And remember, it's whole claim to fame. [SPEAKER_00]: The whole reason you're supposed to buy Bitcoin is because it's the best returning asset. [SPEAKER_00]: Yet it hasn't been.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the best proof of what allows the asset Bitcoin has been for most people, not for everybody. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, if you bought it early enough, if you got in on the ground floor, yeah, you cleaned up. [SPEAKER_00]: Of course, [SPEAKER_00]: But if you got in and the last one, two, three, four, five years, which is when the vast majority of people got in, it's been lousy. [SPEAKER_00]: And the best example is micro strategy.

[SPEAKER_00]: Micro strategies, average price, on about 55 billion, spent buying Bitcoin, is over 60,000, 67,000, excuse me. [SPEAKER_00]: Just over 60, 7,000. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, 76,000, excuse me, just over 76,000. [SPEAKER_00]: We're now barely above 72,000. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's down about 4,000 per Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, what does that, 6% or something like that? [SPEAKER_00]: He's lost money on the Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: The biggest Bitcoin buyer in the world has lost money.

[SPEAKER_00]: Micro strategy or strategy excuse me would have been much better off doing just about anything else I mean obviously had he bought gold and silver it mean it be night and day [SPEAKER_00]: But strategy couldn't just take it all that money that it spent by in Bitcoin and just put it in a money market and it would have had a positive return would have got 4% interest a year so 4% for 5 years that's plus 20% instead is down 6%

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, of course, if you owned micro strategy stock, which, by the way, hit a new 52 week low today, it's now down more than 75% from its peak price last year, 75% down on strategy stock was down 4.7% today, so it's at 129. [SPEAKER_00]: The stock was below $20. [SPEAKER_00]: I forget exactly where it was, but I'm pretty sure it was less than $20.

[SPEAKER_00]: So if you happen to own micro strategy back then, and you sold out, you know, at any point, including even selling out today, you did good, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You made money because micro strategy strategy bought all this Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: But the actual decision to buy Bitcoin was a bad one because strategy lost money on the Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: As I said, strategy would have been better off, had it just bought a money market.

[SPEAKER_00]: But then again, had sailor said, hey, the reason we're gonna sell you all this stock is so we can take the money and buy money market. [SPEAKER_00]: Nobody would have paid a premium for his stock. [SPEAKER_00]: The reason that micro strategy, I keep saying micro, the reason that strategy has gone up so much. [SPEAKER_00]: is because it was able to leverage the fact that it could sell stock at a premium to buy Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: And therefore get what amount to free Bitcoin.

[SPEAKER_00]: and the reason it was able to do that to accumulate all this Bitcoin was because the people who were buying strategy stock wanted exposure to Bitcoin they wanted the upside of Bitcoin with less downside risk and they thought they were getting that especially the convertible prefers.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what the last five years have proven is that to people who wanted exposure to Bitcoin were wrong, there was no reason to have exposure to Bitcoin because Bitcoin was a lousy investment over the last five years. [SPEAKER_00]: That strategy has been buying it. [SPEAKER_00]: But the people who bought stock and strategy didn't realize that. [SPEAKER_00]: They thought Bitcoin would be a good investment. [SPEAKER_00]: Turned out it was a lousy investment.

[SPEAKER_00]: And now the party's over. [SPEAKER_00]: Like the air is coming out of the Bitcoin bubble. [SPEAKER_00]: And strategy no longer has a viable business model.

[SPEAKER_00]: The problem is he has to maintain the fiction of these preferreds [SPEAKER_00]: to 11% and now to 11 and a quarter percent of course there's no income to pay these dividends so he just has to eat into the principle of his company but I think we're you know in a slow death spiral for for strategy but as the price of Bitcoin goes further and further below [SPEAKER_00]: their average cost, it is going to compound the problems.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I know Salar says, well, there's no point where I'm ever going to have to sell Bitcoin, there will come a point, because at some point, the notes are due, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The ones that actually have a set maturity, and he's going to have to come up with a money. [SPEAKER_00]: And so the only asset that he's going to have on his balance sheet is Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: So Bitcoin is going to have to be sold eventually.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the other thing that might force the sale of some Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: is a big discount to NAV, which I think is going to happen. [SPEAKER_00]: I think you're going to see strategy trading for half of the value of this Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: And that will put a lot of pressure on Sailor. [SPEAKER_00]: to close that discount by selling Bitcoin to buy back strategy stock. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, obviously he'd be a fool not to do it, but then again, he'd be a fool to do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I guess because the minute he started to sell Bitcoin, the price would include. [SPEAKER_00]: So he's going to be boxed in a no-win situation. [SPEAKER_00]: So it's just all lose. [SPEAKER_00]: So you want to get rid of your Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: you want to get rid of your strategy. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, even though strategy is out of 52 week low, remember where the stock came from.

[SPEAKER_00]: It was below $20 and it's going back below $20 because the only thing it's got is Bitcoin and Bitcoin is going down. [SPEAKER_00]: And so if you got it, you want to sell it. [SPEAKER_00]: But the best thing you could do, obviously, is to try to make back the money. [SPEAKER_00]: Some people now are going to say, well, Peter, you know, I bought my Bitcoin at 80,000 or 90,000, or 100,000. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to lose money. [SPEAKER_00]: You've lost money.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's already happened. [SPEAKER_00]: If you want to make back the money that you lost, don't think you have to make it back with Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: Because you'll probably just end up losing more. [SPEAKER_00]: where you can make back the money you lost on Bitcoin is in gold and silver or gold and silver mining stocks. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think the sooner you make that switch, the easier you'll be able to make up that loss.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, we've got a quick commercial break coming right back so stick around. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, just in the 15 minutes that I was doing this podcast, the gold rally fizzled out. [SPEAKER_00]: And so gold was just above 5,000. [SPEAKER_00]: And now it's below 49.50, 49.46. [SPEAKER_00]: So gold's tornado and silver, which was above 89, has had an even sharper reversal. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's now at 87.40. [SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of volatility.

[SPEAKER_00]: in in the metal's market, but I think the lows are in and I think you know we're headed back in the other direction, but you know I was listening to a I guess as a reporter asking Donald Trump questions about about Bitcoin and you know you know why he wants to you know focus so much attention on crypto and Bitcoin and [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, one thing you said is, well, I believe in crypto, you know, that's why I'm doing it. [SPEAKER_00]: I believe in it.

[SPEAKER_00]: But what he said was that if we don't do this, if America doesn't lead in crypto, if we're not the Bitcoin capital, China's going to get there, China's going to beat us. [SPEAKER_00]: And so he said the reason that we have to win in crypto is to prevent China from winning. [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm thinking of myself. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, China's like, they're laughing hysterically at this.

[SPEAKER_00]: If they think that, you know, they got to beat us to the Bitcoin, they don't care about Bitcoin. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they banned it a long time ago, they know it's a scam. [SPEAKER_00]: The Chinese have no interest. [SPEAKER_00]: in Bitcoin, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So the idea that we have to pre-empt China, that we have no choice, but to, you know, waste all of our scarce resources and mist direct our capital, [SPEAKER_00]: to becoming the leader in crypto just to beat China to it with China has absolutely no interest. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, if this is great for them, far as their concern, because where they put in their resources while we're creating mean coins, they're building factories.

[SPEAKER_00]: and while Americans are buying Bitcoin and shit coin, whatever, they're buying gold and silver. [SPEAKER_00]: So they're doing smart things with their money. [SPEAKER_00]: And we're doing dumb things with our money because supposedly, if we didn't do these dumb things, then China would do the dumb things. [SPEAKER_00]: No, we're the only one doing them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, so we got some jobs numbers that came out today, [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, we got the ADP, this is the private jobs numbers. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, normally on Friday, we would be getting the main government, non-farm payroll number for January, but they've postponed it. [SPEAKER_00]: I forget when it's coming out, it's maybe another couple of weeks.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I guess, you know, whatever these new government shutdowns are is somehow preventing them from coming out with their highly inaccurate and always narrowly revised report on time. [SPEAKER_00]: So I guess it's going to take them longer to come up with an inaccurate number that can be revised at a later point. [SPEAKER_00]: But we did get the ADP numbers because that's not coming from the government. [SPEAKER_00]: And these are bad numbers.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, first of all, it was a very low bar that was set. [SPEAKER_00]: So the consensus was for 45,000 jobs. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a pretty low bar. [SPEAKER_00]: You figure you're going to clear a bar that low. [SPEAKER_00]: Nope. [SPEAKER_00]: 22,000 jobs. [SPEAKER_00]: That's it. [SPEAKER_00]: That was actually below the low. [SPEAKER_00]: estimate because the range went from 30,000 jobs on the low end to 65,000 jobs on the high end.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we came out at 22,000. [SPEAKER_00]: That's below the low end. [SPEAKER_00]: That's less than half of what was forecast. [SPEAKER_00]: And to make it worse, the prior month, which was also not a good [SPEAKER_00]: That was revised down to 37,000. [SPEAKER_00]: So a weak number got even weaker, and then consecutively, [SPEAKER_00]: The January number was even weaker than the December number. [SPEAKER_00]: So weak numbers, the trend is weak.

[SPEAKER_00]: There's nothing good about this report. [SPEAKER_00]: But you know, meanwhile, the Trump administration keeps talking about how we have the strongest economy in history, strongest economy in the world, the strongest economy America has ever had, [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if the economy is so, so strong, not just slightly strong or not just, you know, pretty strong, but these strongest ever, like never been better in all of history. [SPEAKER_00]: How can the job numbers be this bad?

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, how do you explain that? [SPEAKER_00]: There is no way to explain that. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they can try, but it doesn't make any sense. [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't pass the smell test that the economy could be that strong. [SPEAKER_00]: Yet the job growth could be this week. [SPEAKER_00]: All right. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, also on the inflation front, right, they're still claiming. [SPEAKER_00]: that inflation is gone, inflation is non-existent.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, mewah oil prices, which is the main thing that Trump's been hanging his hat on, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Supposedly, this dollar 99 gas that exists somewhere. [SPEAKER_00]: But oil is bottom, I've been saying that. [SPEAKER_00]: And you know, it's about $64 a barrel now. [SPEAKER_00]: It was down around 56, I think, was the low sub-like that. [SPEAKER_00]: So we've definitely turned around on the oil. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, 54. [SPEAKER_00]: So we got below 55.

[SPEAKER_00]: So we're almost $10 a barrel now off the low. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think more importantly, [SPEAKER_00]: The oil stocks, and I've been talking about them on this podcast, you know, I, I, I talked about when I bought a lot more oil stocks myself because, you know, gold stocks and silver stocks were taken off, and I was in buying because I had so much already in those stocks that I was putting new money in oil energy stocks.

[SPEAKER_00]: because energy was like the one commodity that that was down. [SPEAKER_00]: Everything else was going up. [SPEAKER_00]: And I also have a lot of money in industrial metal stocks. [SPEAKER_00]: You'll copper and stuff like that. [SPEAKER_00]: And those stocks were doing really well. [SPEAKER_00]: And they've hit new highs. [SPEAKER_00]: But the energy stocks were cheap. [SPEAKER_00]: Oil was cheap. [SPEAKER_00]: So I was buying a bunch of those stocks.

[SPEAKER_00]: And we increased our position in our in our managed accounts in our in our funds. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, just about every oil stock, he didn't new 52 week high today. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they've been on fire recently. [SPEAKER_00]: So what I think is happening with oil stocks is they are a leading indicator now. [SPEAKER_00]: The strength that we're seeing when I started by more these stocks were near their lows. [SPEAKER_00]: That's, you know, kind of what prompted me to buy them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Not only was oil low, but the oil stocks. [SPEAKER_00]: were really low. [SPEAKER_00]: But now they've turned around and they you know they've been very strong a lot stronger. [SPEAKER_00]: Let's say then the gold stocks were because they were they were leading. [SPEAKER_00]: They were going up even when oil wasn't. [SPEAKER_00]: But now oil prices are moving up confirming the initial strength that we had in in oil prices.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I have to keep me on that and turn off my ringer. [SPEAKER_00]: But the point I make it by bringing up the strength and oil is the president's whole narrative of inflation is gone because we got cheap gas. [SPEAKER_00]: That's going away. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the elections, the midterm elections are not until November. [SPEAKER_00]: gas prices are going to be much higher come November than they are now. [SPEAKER_00]: So that that's not going to play.

[SPEAKER_00]: He's not going to be able to claim that we got cheap gas. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's pretty much what I'm going to talk about Scott Bessons. [SPEAKER_00]: I was listening to him testify before [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, but, you know, their answer for everything is the point to, but gas prices. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, but it's all offset by cheap gas, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Because if you point to any other price that's up, you have your, your gas is down, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: Is if that makes up for everything else. [SPEAKER_00]: But it's all they got, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, but they're not going to have that for much longer. [SPEAKER_00]: And these midterm elections are going to be a big problem for the Republicans. [SPEAKER_00]: If you notice the last several elections, the incumbents have lost when Trump won the first time. [SPEAKER_00]: There was no incumbent per se because Obama served out his term.

[SPEAKER_00]: But Hillary Clinton was the heir apparent to the throne. [SPEAKER_00]: She was in his cabinet, she was secretary of state. [SPEAKER_00]: And she was Bill Clinton's, she was the first lady. [SPEAKER_00]: So she was like the incumbent. [SPEAKER_00]: But Trump won. [SPEAKER_00]: Then when Trump ran for reelection as the incumbent, he lost.

[SPEAKER_00]: Then when Harris ran, yes, it wasn't Biden running for a second term, but it was Harris representing the incumbent party who was the vice president. [SPEAKER_00]: She was the fact of the incumbent, and she lost to Trump. [SPEAKER_00]: One, three consecutive elections, national elections. [SPEAKER_00]: Why is that?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's very simple. [SPEAKER_00]: The incumbent party tried to run on the economy and asked the voters for four more years based on this great economy that they were going to continue. [SPEAKER_00]: And the voters weren't buying any of that. [SPEAKER_00]: in the election had a message of change. [SPEAKER_00]: The challenger said, I feel you're paying, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The economy isn't strong. [SPEAKER_00]: You're being lied to by the government, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Elect me.

[SPEAKER_00]: I'll fix it. [SPEAKER_00]: And the challenger won. [SPEAKER_00]: So that's what's gonna happen in the midterms and in the general election. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't win elections in America today, trying to sell the voters on a strong economy when it's a lie. [SPEAKER_00]: Right? [SPEAKER_00]: They don't like that. [SPEAKER_00]: They don't like being told how great it is and they're just not smart enough to realize it. [SPEAKER_00]: Right?

[SPEAKER_00]: You guys are just too dumb to realize how good you have it. [SPEAKER_00]: The economy is great, whether you know it or not. [SPEAKER_00]: Right? [SPEAKER_00]: That's not something that that wins. [SPEAKER_00]: Right? [SPEAKER_00]: The way you win an election is you acknowledge what the voters know. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's the incumbents fault that the economy is bad. [SPEAKER_00]: So you tell the truth about how bad the economy is.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then you lie about how you're going to make it better. [SPEAKER_00]: that's what wins. [SPEAKER_00]: Don't lie and tell people the economy is good lie and tell them that you're going to make it good, but tell the truth that it's lousy. [SPEAKER_00]: And so that's what's going to happen in the midterms. [SPEAKER_00]: The Republicans are going to have to tell the voters that everything is great and the voters are going to know that they're being lied to.

[SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats are going to [SPEAKER_00]: That's a lie, but admitting that it's bad will be the truth. [SPEAKER_00]: And you know, it's funny because I was watching and I'm gonna talk about this after this next break that we have, but watch and Scott Bessett testify before all these Democrats, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And he accomplished something that I didn't even think anybody could accomplish.

[SPEAKER_00]: He actually makes the Democrats look like the party that understands economics. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's no way that they could have made themselves look like that because they don't understand anything about economics. [SPEAKER_00]: But now the Republicans, when they're trying to defend Trump's policies, they actually make the Democrats in a way look smart by comparison, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So that's not a small feat, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: That's not that's not, you know, easy to do considering how completely ignorant they are of economics. [SPEAKER_00]: But that shows you how far the Republican Party has drifted.

[SPEAKER_00]: in order to get behind some of these Trumpian policies, but given how bad things are going to be, the Republicans are going to have to really pull out the stops to try to win the midterms.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're not going to just surrender. [SPEAKER_00]: Trump does not want to lose. [SPEAKER_00]: the midterm elections. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, because I mean, otherwise, he's just going to be fighting in impeachment, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats are in the house. [SPEAKER_00]: That's going to be the first order of business. [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, there's a lot of stuff that you can try to impeach him for.

[SPEAKER_00]: You know, and I'm going to get to that because a lot of that stuff came out at the hearing today with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, [SPEAKER_00]: But Trump doesn't want to have to deal with that. [SPEAKER_00]: And he's going to take it personally, right? [SPEAKER_00]: If the Republicans lose, right? [SPEAKER_00]: It'll be a repudiation.

[SPEAKER_00]: of, you know, of his presidency, if he loses, especially the Senate, too, the House, and the Senate, if he loses both chambers, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Now, of course, he'll try to rationalize because, well, I wasn't on the ballot. [SPEAKER_00]: That's why, right? [SPEAKER_00]: It was, you know, Trump's name wasn't on the ballot, but that doesn't matter. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, his name's on the ballot anyway.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think most people, [SPEAKER_00]: when they go to vote for the midterms are going to be voting pro Trump or anti-Trump.

[SPEAKER_00]: I don't even think it really is going to matter who's actually on the ticket. [SPEAKER_00]: Every Republican has got a big T for Trump and the other guy is just not Trump, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And so that's basically what it's going to be and it's going to be about the economy. [SPEAKER_00]: If you feel that you're better off than your vote in Trump, [SPEAKER_00]: And if you feel you're not better off, then you're voting not Trump.

[SPEAKER_00]: And people are not going to be better off. [SPEAKER_00]: Just, you know, prices are going to be a lot higher. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, affordability is the main issue. [SPEAKER_00]: It was the main issue in the last campaign. [SPEAKER_00]: It will be the next issue in these campaigns. [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, if the US dollar keeps falling, which it looks to me like it will, [SPEAKER_00]: interest rates, long-term rates, they're not falling.

[SPEAKER_00]: They're they're inching higher. [SPEAKER_00]: And that could pick up the pace. [SPEAKER_00]: And the job's market is is, you know, collapsing. [SPEAKER_00]: It's rolling over. [SPEAKER_00]: We could be printing negative numbers. [SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to try to do all kinds of crazy things. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, what Trump may do is put some tariff dividend checks in the mail.

[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to talk about the testimony today on, you know, in the Senate with Scott Bessett. [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, you can see the whole thing. [SPEAKER_00]: It's on YouTube. [SPEAKER_00]: And obviously, this whole thing is political theater.

[SPEAKER_00]: uh... then the republicans i mean they're obviously they're outraged at at trump and they're you know bring it to the attention of best it but best it is in a position of having to defend [SPEAKER_00]: things that are indefensible, which is why he looks so ridiculous. [SPEAKER_00]: So one of the points in particular are the tariffs, right? [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats are all over the Republicans about tariffs.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's a great issue for the Democrats because the tariffs are making things more expensive. [SPEAKER_00]: There's no way around that. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, Bessant wants to cling to the idea that tariffs by definition are not inflationary, which they're not, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Because inflation is an expansion of the money supply or the credit supply. [SPEAKER_00]: We're doing that separately, but the tariffs increase some prices and decrease others.

[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, but yes, they're not technically inflation, but they do make a lot of things more expensive. [SPEAKER_00]: And so if the issue is a affordability, more so than inflation, tariffs make a lot of products a lot less affordable. [SPEAKER_00]: That is a reality. [SPEAKER_00]: You can't get around that fact, but watching Scott Bessett try to get around that fact is what makes him look so ridiculous.

[SPEAKER_00]: So one of the things that the Democrats, you know, Maxine water I think was one that was really harping on this is that they admitted that they were going to lower tariffs [SPEAKER_00]: because they wanted to price us to go down. [SPEAKER_00]: And so they said, well, we're going to lower the tariffs and that will lower the prices. [SPEAKER_00]: And she said, what are you talking about? [SPEAKER_00]: You told us that the tariffs wouldn't cause prices to go up.

[SPEAKER_00]: You told us that foreigners were going to pay the tariffs. [SPEAKER_00]: So why shouldn't matter? [SPEAKER_00]: How should getting rid of the tariffs, lower prices, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Old the only way getting rid of the tariffs lowers prices is if imposing the tariff raise prices. [SPEAKER_00]: But they told us that that wasn't going to happen. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, obviously it was a lie, but they still can't defend. [SPEAKER_00]: the terrorists.

[SPEAKER_00]: And they can't say that, yeah, we care about affordability.

[SPEAKER_00]: All they keep doing is pointing to gas prices. [SPEAKER_00]: Okay. [SPEAKER_00]: So gas prices are down. [SPEAKER_00]: Does that mean that all these other prices need to go up? [SPEAKER_00]: How about if all those other prices were lower because you didn't put the tariffs on there? [SPEAKER_00]: Right? [SPEAKER_00]: Now, of course, the government needs the tax revenue, right? [SPEAKER_00]: That's another issue, but that's not going to be part of the political argument.

[SPEAKER_00]: You've just got the Republican Party in favor of taxing the middle class and the working poor and the not working poor. [SPEAKER_00]: Tariffs are taxes on every day Americans. [SPEAKER_00]: they make the price of the things that ordinary American voters buy more expensive. [SPEAKER_00]: Right. [SPEAKER_00]: So the Democrats can just take the high road on that and say, we don't want to tax struggling Americans. [SPEAKER_00]: We don't want to make their grocery bills more expensive.

[SPEAKER_00]: Like three Republicans do. [SPEAKER_00]: The Republicans want Americans to pay more for their food, which they do. [SPEAKER_00]: Because the tariffs are on the food, right, even like, you know, I think somebody pointed out that when they have sales taxes, a lot of states, you know, they exempt certain things from sales tax. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, because they're essentials, so we're not going to tax you when you buy groceries.

[SPEAKER_00]: If you go into eating a restaurant, okay, yeah, we're going to tax restaurant food. [SPEAKER_00]: But if you go and you buy milk and bread at the supermarket, you know, there's not going to be a sales tax. [SPEAKER_00]: But here, all the imported stuff, all the fruit, all the vegetables, everything that's coming all the meat, all the seafood that's coming in from other countries, all tariff. [SPEAKER_00]: But also another thing, I think maybe it was Maxine Waters.

[SPEAKER_00]: She was talking about tariffs on baby products. [SPEAKER_00]: I think she was talking about car seats. [SPEAKER_00]: And she was saying, why don't you have an exemption for all these baby products? [SPEAKER_00]: and bessance answer was, well, all those products were made in China. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, okay, so does that mean we don't need them?

[SPEAKER_00]: Does that mean women who just had babies and who now need to go out and buy a car seat for their baby, they should be forced to pay a higher price because China's the only one that makes them, I mean, we don't make them. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, what do you think is gonna happen if you put a tariff on a product that we don't even have the ability to produce, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: So you just got to pay the tariff, the Chinese are not saying, well, you know, there's a tariff on these car seats and so we better cut our prices so that the Americans don't have to pay more, no, they're going to sell their baby, you know, their car seats to us at the margin they need. [SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that they're more expensive now, that's that's our tough luck. [SPEAKER_00]: We're the ones that are imposing the taxes on ourselves. [SPEAKER_00]: Right?

[SPEAKER_00]: It's not the Chinese. [SPEAKER_00]: We want to buy their car seats, then we got to pay our tariffs. [SPEAKER_00]: And so Maxine Waters say, well, are you going to exempt that? [SPEAKER_00]: And he's like, you know, he can't say no. [SPEAKER_00]: And his main thing was like, well, you know, we need to punish China. [SPEAKER_00]: Okay, so you're punishing China by making the products that Americans need and have to buy more expensive. [SPEAKER_00]: How does that punish China?

[SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't. [SPEAKER_00]: There's still selling those car seats. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, maybe they're not selling as many because we can't afford them anymore. [SPEAKER_00]: So maybe we're using more second-hand car seats. [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe they're not as safe. [SPEAKER_00]: But they're selling those car seats to some place else. [SPEAKER_00]: Somebody else was buying them. [SPEAKER_00]: Maybe somebody in Canada is buying them.

[SPEAKER_00]: Or in South America, or somebody in China made his buying them, right? [SPEAKER_00]: But the Republicans look completely ridiculous to try to defend these tariffs the way they are. [SPEAKER_00]: But and so it's a real winning issue that the Democrats are going to have. [SPEAKER_00]: in in in in the elections and of course you know.

[SPEAKER_00]: They talked about the big market, the big stock market rally that we had when the president paused his tariffs, every time the markets react positive to tariffs, it's when they don't happen. [SPEAKER_00]: Trump goes in and threatens tariffs and the market goes down. [SPEAKER_00]: And then he says, okay, no tariffs, the market goes back up. [SPEAKER_00]: What does that tell you?

[SPEAKER_00]: The market doesn't [SPEAKER_00]: You know, beats somebody up, you know, with a hammer, and then you stop hitting them. [SPEAKER_00]: And now they're relieved that you're not hitting him anymore. [SPEAKER_00]: And you say, see, I made your feel a lot better, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Because I stopped hitting you. [SPEAKER_00]: That no, you hit me in the first place. [SPEAKER_00]: You can't claim credit for the relief when you're the one that caused the pain.

[SPEAKER_00]: That's what Trump does. [SPEAKER_00]: He causes a lot of pain. [SPEAKER_00]: And then he takes credit when there's some relief from the pain that he caused on his own. [SPEAKER_00]: One of the, the worst parts about it is like the graph and the self-dealing and the conflict of interest, the Republicans look like complete hypocrites and fools defending Trump.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, one of the issues now because this was in a, I think, a New York Times or a Wall Street [SPEAKER_00]: which, you know, it's owned by, you know, the president's family. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's Eric or Don Jr. You know, is whatever the president and he's like an honorary founder. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, but it's his family business. [SPEAKER_00]: And like three or four days, they was four days before the inauguration. [SPEAKER_00]: So obviously, the election results are in.

[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody knows Trump's the next president. [SPEAKER_00]: And a company in the United Arab Emirates, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: bought half of the company for about five hundred million dollars now the company was pretty much brand new right they just started it and they bought half of it for five hundred million and about a hundred eighty seven million of the five hundred went directly into the pockets of the trump family right it didn't stay in the company it just went out and the trump's just

[SPEAKER_00]: Now, look, you can argue that, well, the fact that Donald Trump was going to be the next president was totally irrelevant. [SPEAKER_00]: to the decision by this company in, you know, at our Emirates, that they would have bought into it even if Trump had lost, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And it didn't matter to them that it was the president of the United States whose pocket they were putting all this money in, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: They, if he was not the president, if he was just an ordinary citizen, they would have been willing to put

[SPEAKER_00]: the money in and the same amount right that the valuation right that you know what they paid the $500 million investment that that dollar figure would have been the same even if Trump had lost the election and he was going to have zero political power right even if he had ended up in jail because remember if Trump didn't win the election he could have been he could have got a jail right there are all these charges against him and all kinds of stuff like that so

[SPEAKER_00]: if you want to try to argue that the sale price of this company would have been the same regardless of the outcome of the election. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, there's no way you can make that argument. [SPEAKER_00]: But then also, also, shortly after the deal is done,

[SPEAKER_00]: Trump signed something or does something to allow the U.A.E. [SPEAKER_00]: to buy these chips, these AI type chips that were previously not allowed.

[SPEAKER_00]: So the president puts, you know, millions, tens of millions over a hundred million is [SPEAKER_00]: for the company and the nation that put that money in his pocket right now you can say well you know it's it's a total coincidence right i i i was very objective i didn't care that these guys just gave me five hundred million dollars i i i didn't done it anyway right i [SPEAKER_00]: I'd have, you know, this was good, you know, economics, it was a good decision.

[SPEAKER_00]: The Biden administration was wrong to impose this, you know, this limitation. [SPEAKER_00]: And so it was just the right thing to do. [SPEAKER_00]: And I was not in any way, you know, swayed by the fact that they just gave me all this money, right? [SPEAKER_00]: And even if that's true, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Even if it's completely true, that all of this is on the up and up, you still don't do it.

[SPEAKER_00]: because of the optics because it certainly doesn't look like it's on the up and up and if problem of course it's probably not there's no way there's no way that this stuff would have happened but for Trump winning and there's no question that he was influenced by this investment in fact it probably was a quid pro quo they probably knew that this was coming and that's why they make the investment.

[SPEAKER_00]: And so the Democrats are rightly calling out the Republicans for this and the Republicans all they do is like, well, you know, but at least we're doing it out in the open, you don't have to find it in a laptop somewhere, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, we're not laundering it in shell companies. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, they're not. [SPEAKER_00]: They're like right out in our face with it, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: They're basically doing what the Biden's did on a much bigger scale and they're not hiding it. [SPEAKER_00]: And supposedly, that's what makes it okay. [SPEAKER_00]: Their whole defense is, well, obviously, there can't be anything wrong with it because we're not hiding it. [SPEAKER_00]: It's just right out there. [SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, that doesn't make it right just because you don't bother to hide it.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's complete Hutspa that you can do that, that you're, you're, you're just so cocky, but I guess that's it, just say, look, you know, no, yeah, we're, we're, everybody can see and we're just saying it's all on the up and up. [SPEAKER_00]: And obviously, this is not a winning issue for the Republicans. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it was a good issue when they raised the graphed issue about the Biden's and I completely stood behind the Republicans.

[SPEAKER_00]: And I supported. [SPEAKER_00]: the Republicans when they went after Biden and his whole family. [SPEAKER_00]: And it was clear that Biden should have been impeached that they were committing crimes. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, Trump administration is doing the same thing. [SPEAKER_00]: And so the precedent that we're now setting, because believe me, the Democrats are going to win the next presidential election.

[SPEAKER_00]: And they are licking their chops about the fact that they no longer have to hide the money they're stealing. [SPEAKER_00]: That they could just do it all right out in the open because, you know, what's good for the goose, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You set the precedent, this is now okay. [SPEAKER_00]: So presidents can set up companies and they can take money from foreign governments, foreign countries.

[SPEAKER_00]: And then they can sign favorable deals that enrich I mean they can use you can use the power of the presidency I mean Donald Trump makes a big deal over the fact well, I don't take my salary. [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, why that's small potatoes. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean who cares about four 500,000 years salary?

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean when you're making hundreds of millions or billions of dollars And you know, you look at all these people that come to the White House, you know, the Swiss were there.

[SPEAKER_00]: They give a Rolex and, you know, all the, you know, gold bars [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I think you suppose to leave all that stuff at the White House, like, maybe you can put into his library, I mean, I think you just take it, although I read somewhere that if you keep all those gifts, you have to pay income taxes on the gift. [SPEAKER_00]: But that's still, that's still like a good deal, right?

[SPEAKER_00]: If you get a free Rolex and all you have to do is pay the income tax on it, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So let's say you get a $60,000 Rolex. [SPEAKER_00]: and you pay, you know, $30,000 in income tax. [SPEAKER_00]: I see you got the Rolex for half price. [SPEAKER_00]: That's still a pretty good deal. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if Trump wants another Rolex, he should go buy one. [SPEAKER_00]: He's got plenty of money. [SPEAKER_00]: He shouldn't.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I wouldn't take if I was the pro. [SPEAKER_00]: I wouldn't take any of this stuff. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I would just make it, I pray, don't, don't come, bribing me, right, don't give me stuff. [SPEAKER_00]: Don't you have to pay homage to me. [SPEAKER_00]: He's not a king, but people, you know, people know that, you know, you want something from Trump, you butter him up, right? [SPEAKER_00]: You give him stuff, you flatter him.

[SPEAKER_00]: And not, you know, so all things ridiculous, but all of this is going to play very badly. [SPEAKER_00]: at at the polls, the graph, the tariffs, and then you're going to have the fact that the economy is weak. [SPEAKER_00]: And Trump is going to have to say that it's not weak, that it's strong. [SPEAKER_00]: And we know, as I've said, it's it's a very easy winning formula.

[SPEAKER_00]: when your opponent is lying about how great the economy is, all you have to do is tell the truth. [SPEAKER_00]: And you win, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Now, they don't know you're lying about what you're gonna do about it. [SPEAKER_00]: That doesn't matter, right? [SPEAKER_00]: What's obvious is that you're the genuine one.

[SPEAKER_00]: And that's what people really liked about Trump the first time was that [SPEAKER_00]: He talked about all the fake government numbers and all the bullshit that we're being fed by the media and by Wall Street. [SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, that message resonated and he wanted an election that nobody expected him to win. [SPEAKER_00]: But me, I thought he was going to win because I knew that that message would resonate because I was saying the same thing.

[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, a lot of Trump's early stump speeches. [SPEAKER_00]: I thought maybe the guys were listening to my podcast and that's why they were writing them because he really sounded a lot like me. [SPEAKER_00]: He was saying a lot of the same things that I was saying.

[SPEAKER_00]: and and it worked but then the minute he became president he changed all the fake economic numbers became real because he wanted a hide behind no same fake numbers he wanted to claim look how great everything is and so how did he do that he pointed to the same numbers that he said were fake when they were out under Obama and so that's not good work [SPEAKER_00]: because it has it worked in three elections.

[SPEAKER_00]: What works is leveling with the public and admitting what they know, things are bad, things have gotten worse. [SPEAKER_00]: The cost of living is going up, not down. [SPEAKER_00]: People are going deeper into debt. [SPEAKER_00]: And the other ridiculous thing that Trump is doing, and best it, best it, again, got caught up in this nonsense. [SPEAKER_00]: Trump said when it comes to housing right he wants to solve the affordability problem.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the most important thing to him is that housing prices don't go down. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, you can't solve the affordability problem. [SPEAKER_00]: If the things that are unaffordable, don't get less expensive. [SPEAKER_00]: That's what makes them more affordable. [SPEAKER_00]: Housing is unaffordable because the prices are too high.

[SPEAKER_00]: Yet not only did Donald Trump say that he doesn't want the prices to come down, he specifically said he wants the prices to keep going up. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, how are you going to solve housing affordability if the unaffordable houses become even more expensive?

[SPEAKER_00]: And then of course, Scott Besson was criticizing today the immigrants saying one of the reasons that housing prices are up is because of all these illegals that were coming in here, bidding up prices, which they really weren't. [SPEAKER_00]: But, [SPEAKER_00]: If that was the case, then why aren't we thanking them? [SPEAKER_00]: Because Donald Trump says he loves these high home prices, because people are rich now. [SPEAKER_00]: Homeowners are rich.

[SPEAKER_00]: Well, if they're rich, because a bunch of illegals came in and bit up the prices, then why is he mad at him? [SPEAKER_00]: Because that's exactly what he wanted. [SPEAKER_00]: He wanted these high home prices to enrich the people that already own homes. [SPEAKER_00]: But if you enrich the people who are young homes, you make it impossible for the people who don't own homes to buy them.

[SPEAKER_00]: But the fact that it's impossible for the people who don't own homes to buy them means the people who own homes and our rich only think their rich. [SPEAKER_00]: They're only rich if they don't sell their home. [SPEAKER_00]: they can pretend they're rich, they have a very expensive house that they can't sell, right? [SPEAKER_00]: So as long as they don't try to sell the house, they can keep pretending they're rich.

[SPEAKER_00]: Now what they can do with a house they can't sell is they could take out a loan against it, right? [SPEAKER_00]: But if you take out a loan against a house that nobody could buy, because the price is too high, who's going to lose the lender, the bank? [SPEAKER_00]: Because ultimately, [SPEAKER_00]: because that's going to happen naturally. [SPEAKER_00]: If people can't afford to buy houses, the market will reduce the price of a home. [SPEAKER_00]: until they're affordable.

[SPEAKER_00]: But best, you know, couldn't argue that. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, he's trying to argue that we got to keep home prices high, but we have to make them affordable. [SPEAKER_00]: And all they can talk about is what we need lower mortgage rates, but we're not going to get lower mortgage rates because interest rates are rising because we have so much debt. [SPEAKER_00]: That is the problem. [SPEAKER_00]: That's why the dollar is falling. [SPEAKER_00]: That's why goal is at record highs.

[SPEAKER_00]: you've got this huge loss of confidence in the United States. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, right now you've got a loss in confidence in foreign central banks, they're buying gold, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Foreign investors, they're buying their stocks, you know, best it is in denial of this.

[SPEAKER_00]: But right now it's foreigners who are losing confidence in America.

[SPEAKER_00]: But in November, [SPEAKER_00]: in the midterms it's going to be america's american voters are losing confidence in the administration in the republican party because they're the ones that are steering the ship estate and you know that they're steering it you know off this cliff and the voters know that anyway that's it for our for today [SPEAKER_00]: I'm probably going to do another Friday market wrap that'll be the second podcast of the week.

[SPEAKER_00]: So make sure you subscribe to this channel, like the video, comment on it, and then go to the shift gold YouTube channel, subscribe to that because on Friday, we'll wrap up this week. [SPEAKER_00]: Probably going to have another couple of volatile days. [SPEAKER_00]: in the gold silver market over the next Thursday and Friday, so you want to make sure and check that out on the shift gold channel.

[SPEAKER_00]: And the meantime also, if you're not yet a subscriber to our newsletter at shift sovereign strategic assets, well, make sure and sign up for the free letter at shift sovereign and then check out the premium letter, uh, strategic assets. [SPEAKER_00]: Bye for now.