The Correction is Over and the Bear Market is Resuming As I have been speaking about in my last couple of podcasts, it looks like the period of relative calm in the markets is over and the next leg down has begun. So the correction is also over - not the downward move - that is not the correction - this is the bear market. The upward move was the correction. It was the first correction in this young bear market. Technically it is not a bear market yet because we're not down 20% but that is only ...
Apr 24, 2018•32 min
Another Friday Down Day It looks like the period of calm may be coming to an end and the storm may be looming just over the horizon. The Dow Jones finished down today, just over 200 points off the day's low. I think I saw us down about 280. This was the 4th consecutive Friday where the markets were lower - there was a holiday in there (Good Friday) - it has been 5 Fridays. This seems to be a trend. The markets still managed to eke out a gain on the week. All 3 of the major indexes managed gains ...
Apr 20, 2018•27 min
Podcast Break: Investor Summit at Sea I apologize to everybody who has been waiting patiently for my next podcast. Las week I went the entire week without doing a podcast, which is unusual. If you are a regular listener to this podcast you'll know that I was on a cruise ship all last week; I was on the Real Estate Guys' cruise. The internet connections on a ship are very slow; particularly the upload speeds - plus I was very busy, so I really decided to take a week off from podcasting. Markets W...
Apr 17, 2018•29 min
Wednesday Reversal Day On my Wednesday podcast, I talked about Wednesday reversal day, where we gapped way down and then rallied and closed up. It was a strong outside reversal day. I thought this could be the beginning of a correction. The correction meaning a rise in a bear market. Everybody thinks we're in a correction now of a bull market, but I think the bull market is over and a rise is the correction. Three Consecutive Up Days So I thought maybe we'll get one based on that reversal day, a...
Apr 07, 2018•31 min
Extreme Volatility It was another extremely volatile day in the U.S. stock market. When I finished my podcast on Monday and we had that big drop, I suspected that Tuesday might be a reversal Tuesday. So I thought we'd get a bounce on Tuesday and, in fact we did. We had a big rally; the Dow was up 400 points or so. Then this morning the Dow opened up down 500 points. In fact when I woke up this morning, a couple of hours before the market opened, the Dow was down closer to 600. Reversing Up Typic...
Apr 04, 2018•31 min
Really a Head Fake As I suspected and as I stated in my last podcast at the end of the first quarter, I speculated that the rally that closed out the quarter was really a head fake. When the quarter started, I said you would see a resumption of the downtrend of the evolving bear market, which I believe we are already in. Bear Market Even though technically we're not there yet because we're not down 20%, but you can't get to 20% without first hitting 10%. Although not officially acknowledged, we ...
Apr 03, 2018•36 min
Holiday Rally Major U.S. stock markets managed to finish a holiday-shortened week with strong rallies. The Dow Jones was up 254 points on the day; earlier in the day it was up better than 400, so the last hour did see the U.S. markets giving up part of their gains. The NASDAQ up 114 points, S&P up 35.87 points, so these rallies today were enough to put the market in the black for the week. But not for the month - all the markets are down significantly in the month of March, and also for the ...
Mar 30, 2018•38 min
Incredible Stock Market Volatility We're having more incredible stock market volatility and I've spoken about the pickup in volatility as another sign that things are different; that we've had a change. Increased volatility usually happens at inflection points, especially when we had a record period of minimum volatility. A of a sudden, we're having incredible swings in the stock market. Case in point: Monday and Tuesday. Up Day on Friday When I did my podcast on Friday, I thought maybe we could...
Mar 28, 2018•36 min
The Rally that Failed On my last podcast, which I recorded on Wednesday, I pointed out that the market's failure to hold the rally in the aftermath of the rate hike. In the face of all of the bullish statements made by Powell about how great everything was, and how strong the economy was, we had a near 300 point rally that failed. All Systems Go for a Market Decline The Dow surrendered the entire rally, closed on the lows of the day; not a huge decline - it was only about a 45 point decline, but...
Mar 24, 2018•37 min
Fed Surprised No OneToday, the Federal Reserve surprised nobody. They raised interest rates by 25 basis points; the 6th rate hike since the Fed began, in December of 2015. The rate is now between 1.5% and 1.75%, so the midpoint of that is around 1.635. So we're still significantly below 2%, but I guess we're closer to 2% than 1% and obviously, we're a lot higher than zero which is where rates stood during most of the Obama Administration.The Fed Already Broke ItAs I said in my last podcast, ever...
Mar 22, 2018•31 min
Tomorrow is the first of the Fed's 2-day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting, and it's going to be the first meeting where there is supposed to be a rate hike and a press conference for the new chairman, Jerome Powell. The markets are pretty much at 100% probability that the Fed is going to raise rates on Wednesday. What the markets are grappling with is whether or not the Fed will raise rates 4 times this year, or only 3. Now, if they are going to raise them 4 times, it would mean they raised...
Mar 20, 2018•36 min
Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin. So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales. The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4. Now, I suppose the good news, if you are looking for retail sales to pick up is that they revised th...
Mar 15, 2018•41 min
NASDAQ New High The stock market had one of its best days of the year; I think it was the second best day. The Dow was up 440 points - just under 1.8%. The NASDAQ was up 132 points; about the exact same percentage as the Dow. The NASDAQ is now at an all-time record high! It closed at 7,60.81. That is a new record. We have taken out the high from before the 10% correction. The NASDAQ is the only major index that has done that. That is not the case for the Dow, the S&P or even the Russell 2000...
Mar 10, 2018•32 min
Continued Stock Market Volatility The U.S. stock market continues to be extremely volatile, and as I have said many times on this podcast, I think this volatility following a long-term record lack of volatility is a good sign that the uptrend has changed. So there's a good chance that the bull market is now a bear market, although few people seem to realize that. We're still relatively close to the highs. In fact, the NASDAQ shrugged off the morning weakness and managed to gain for the fourth da...
Mar 08, 2018•32 min
Trade, Comparative Advantage and Protectionism I want to devote this entire podcast on the subject of trade and comparative advantage and protectionism, and this trade war that President Trump is so confident about. He wants to declare war because he thinks we are going to win. He's a winner, and he wants America to win and so he wants to launch a trade war so that America can win. The Trade Deficit is the Problem I've been talking about how the trade deficits are at record highs. We have the bi...
Mar 04, 2018•48 min
Second Consecutive 300-Point Drop in the Dow The Dow Jones was down 380 points today, in fact this is the second consecutive 300-point drop we've had in the Dow. The Dow is now down about 4% for the month of February which just ended today. This also means the Dow's record-breaking monthly winning streak has also come to an end. Remember, the Dow was up every month since Donald Trump was elected President including every single month in calendar year 2017. That is something that has never happen...
Mar 01, 2018•36 min
Remembering Irwin Schiff Today would have been my father, Irwin Schiff's 90th birthday. If you're not familiar with my father's story, and I'm sure most of the people who listen to this podcast are familiar with my father but if you're not go to schiffbooks.com and pick up a copy of "The Federal Mafia," which was one of only 2 books banned by the Federal Government. We have a lot of books, "The Kingdom Moltz" a book that really shows off my father's sense of humor. It's beautifully illustrated b...
Feb 24, 2018•28 min
Dow Down Over 250 Points Today the Dow Jones was down just over 250 points; we're back below 25,000. I think we were down better than 300 on the lows of the day, but we went out pretty low. The dollar was actually quite strong today; the dollar index had one of its better days of the year - +.61. We're back at 89.71. We had gotten back below 89, with an 88 handle. Gold had a bad day today after having had some pretty good days last week. The price of gold down almost $18 now; just below $1330. W...
Feb 21, 2018•29 min
St. Valentine's Day Rout I wouldn't really call what happened in the bond market and the U.S. dollar market as a St. Valentine's Day massacre, maybe it was a slaughter; even slaughter was too harsh a word. It was a rout. But this is nothing compared to what is going to come. The daughter is going to get slaughtered a lot more and the bond market is going to get slaughtered a lot more in the days ahead. Maybe not exactly tomorrow, but there will be days ahead that will be much worse than today. T...
Feb 15, 2018•40 min
A Change of Trend Another volatile day of trading ended with the Dow gaining a little over 300 points - 330 points to be exact. The NASDAQ composite was up just shy of 100 points - 97.33 - and the S&P gained 38.5 points. But about 2 hours before the close, the Dow was down over 500. And then, in about 20 minutes, it rallied from down 500 to positive, and then at the close it had that 300-point rally. But it started the day up about 200 points, so between up 200, down 500, up 300… Again, we'r...
Feb 10, 2018•30 min
Orlando Money Show: 20 Trillion and Beyond I wasn't intending to do a podcast today; I'm in Orlando at the Money Show , I'm on a stock market panel. It's going to be fun: Louis Navellier , Mark Skousen , David Callaway and Chris Gaffney. My big talk tomorrow should be very interesting. The title is 20 Trillion and Beyond: What the Coming Debt Explosion Will Mean to Your Portfolio. Dow Jones Closed Down 1,032 Points Today Now, of course, it's already exploding, but I gave them that headline about...
Feb 09, 2018•25 min
Volatility The volatility is really continuing, in fact, today at one point this morning the Dow was up close to 400 points; ended up closing negative. It wasn't a big drop; about 20 points, but I think that's the biggest reversal of a gain to a loss in a little over 2 years. The broader market did worse. The S&P percentage-wise dropped about 13.5 points; the NASDAQ was down about 64 points. Turnaround Tuesday Of course the biggest reversal is the one we had yesterday. In fact, when I record...
Feb 08, 2018•44 min
Stock Market Decline Predicted Last Friday I have to warn you up front that I seem to have come down with something last night after the game, and I am having trouble talking today. I normally would not record, but I have to because on Friday's podcast I predicted the decline that we saw today. I Told You So Of course, we did not have a Black Monday like 1987; it wasn't a 20% decline. It was the biggest point decline in the history of the stock market by a large magnitude. We were down 1175 poin...
Feb 06, 2018•27 min
666 Point Drop Today the Dow finished off its worse week in 2 years with a 666 point drop. That is the third largest point drop in the history of the Dow. The last big drop that was larger happened during the 2008 financial crisis. Percentage-wise, though the 666-point drop today is only 2.5% so it's really not that big, as a historic decline. 3% Drop from All-Time Record High It's large in a sense that we haven't had a one-day 2.5% decline in the Dow in quite some time. In fact, I'm not even su...
Feb 03, 2018•41 min
Janet Yellen Got Out of Dodge As expected, earlier today, the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates; they left them unchanged. The next rate hike is likely to come when Powell takes the reins at the Fed. Janet Yellen got out of Dodge! This is the second Fed chairman to be able to pull this off. Bernanke inherited a disaster, and he got out of Dodge, and so did Janet Yellen. Greenspan as Dr. Frankenstein, Fed Policy as Monster I don't think Powell is going to be as fortunate as his ...
Feb 01, 2018•35 min
A Rare Down Day The U.S. stock market finally had a rare down day today. The Dow Jones was down almost 180 points. We did have a little bit of a rally off the lows. NASDAQ closed down 39 points. But still, it's rare to see the U.S. stock market going down. Supposedly, the catalyst for the sell-off today was the increase in long-term interest rates. Long-term interest rates have been rising steadily all year, so the market hasn't cared about rising interest rates at all this year, so I don't know...
Jan 30, 2018•34 min
Alice in Wonderland I spent a lot of time today watching CNBC's coverage of the World Economic Forum in Davos. I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone, or Alice in Wonderland or something like that. Everybody is so optimistic. At least all the Americans who are interviewed. I put up on my Facebook an analyst from Morgan Stanley Asset Management. She's unquestionably bullish on every front. Everything is bullish - there's nothing at all to worry about. In fact, the only thing that she said that ever...
Jan 26, 2018•30 min
Dollar Getting Hammered Gold and oil are breaking out, the dollar is breaking down, bonds continue to break down, and no one cares! Nobody is worried. The Dow was up today, although it finished up closer to the lows it was up a lot more earlier in the day although the dollar was getting hammered before the stock market opened and they still bid it up, but the S&P, the NASDAQ and the Russel 2000 all finished in the red, but the losses weren't that big. It's based on the fact that nobody even ...
Jan 25, 2018•31 min
The Government is Back in Business The government is officially re-opened! Apparently, the government shut down, maybe it was on Friday. Earlier today Congress voted to re-open it! The good news that the government is back in business sent the stock market to record highs. The Dow, the NASDAQ, the S&P all rallied on the good news. When the Government Shuts Down, it gets Bigger Of course, the good news was the government shutdown. Except, it's not really shut down. If they actually shut the g...
Jan 23, 2018•32 min
January 19, 2018 Traders Still Ignoring Ominous Warning Signs We closed the week with more gains on Wall Street as stock traders continue to ignore all the ominous warning signs that have been flashing. The S&P Composite and the NASDAQ both hitting new record highs today. The Dow, not a record high, but positive on the day, closing above 26,000 for the week for the first time ever. Important Warning Signs in the Bond Market But most importantly, what the market is ignoring is what is happeni...
Jan 20, 2018•36 min
