¶ Ceasefire and Market Mood
[SPEAKER_00]: This is Peter Schiff back again for the shift gold Friday market rap and it was a positive week for the precious metals. [SPEAKER_00]: The big catalyst for all markets was the rally on the Wednesday that followed Taco Tuesday. [SPEAKER_00]: Taco Tuesday because that's when Donald Trump at just before the [SPEAKER_00]: announced a two week pause a ceasefire to stop the spread of the war. [SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully to reopen the golf.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that [SPEAKER_00]: Trump was basically looking for a way out of the jail that he put himself in because there was no way for him to carry out his threat to end the Iranian civilization never to return to rain hell down on Iran. [SPEAKER_00]: There's just no way that he could have done that. [SPEAKER_00]: I wish he hadn't even made that threat, especially knowing that he couldn't carry it out.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... so he was looking for a way out and he found one in this uh... cease fire but of course to hear the president flamit frame it it's a huge victory for the u.s. but from a rational perspective it's a victory for Iran number one because Iranian civilization did not come to an end uh... hell was not rained down on Iran the bridges uh... and the power plants were not bomb so that's a win
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think they're in a more powerful negotiating position now that it's pretty apparent that Donald Trump is looking for a way to end this war. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think it's going to end on terms that are a lot more favorable to Iran than a lot of people would have believed when the war started.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think it doesn't really matter about [SPEAKER_00]: you know, how much improved the Iranian position may end up at the end of this, because regardless of how it ends, Trump is going to spin it as a phenomenal victory as, you know, finally reading the world of this Iranian threat, whether it actually existed or not,
[SPEAKER_00]: a Trump will claim that he saved the entire world that we were about to get nuked by Iran, and but for his swift decisive action, you know, it would be a whole new planet, different planet. [SPEAKER_00]: So Trump is going to put positive Trumpy and spin on it. [SPEAKER_00]: So he doesn't even really care how much the US has to lose to win this war. [SPEAKER_00]: He just wants to end it, and obviously he's going to hope that oil prices come down.
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't think they will. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they might come down a little, but they're not going to stay down. [SPEAKER_00]: And then they're going to go much higher. [SPEAKER_00]: And oil prices were going up anyway, even if we never fought this war that we didn't have to fight, oil prices were going to go up.
[SPEAKER_00]: But because we chose to have this war, even if we ended, [SPEAKER_00]: oil prices will end up being higher than the other wise would have been absent the war they would have gone up anyway but now they're just going to go up more anyway let me wrap up uh... the week uh... in all the markets [SPEAKER_00]: So gold ended the week on a downnote was down about 18 bucks. [SPEAKER_00]: It was positive and negative throughout the course of the day.
[SPEAKER_00]: I kind of ended the day near the lows, actually, but not quite on the lows, but gold settled that around $4,745 an ounce, up just under 2% on the week. [SPEAKER_00]: Silver had a better week. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, it had a better day. [SPEAKER_00]: It closed up about 55 cents at 7576. [SPEAKER_00]: Well off the high of the day. [SPEAKER_00]: But silver up 4.75% on the week. [SPEAKER_00]: And the mining stocks also had a good week. [SPEAKER_00]: The GDX was up 5%.
[SPEAKER_00]: But everything was up. [SPEAKER_00]: And the main rally was Wednesday. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, gold actually was up as soon as the, you know, the tacos were served on Tuesday night, gold futures, you know, shot up and gold was up about $120 an ounce. [SPEAKER_00]: And by the time the U.S. markets opened on Wednesday, gold had paired those gains to about maybe 80 bucks and then it ended lower on the day, gold was down on Wednesday, when everything else was up, including silver.
[SPEAKER_00]: But the Dow had a big gain up over 1,000 points. [SPEAKER_00]: I forget exactly how many. [SPEAKER_00]: But on the week, the Dow ended up 3%. [SPEAKER_00]: So not as much as gold stocks, but a nice move. [SPEAKER_00]: The Nasdaq was up 4.2% on the week, even Bitcoin had a rally. [SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin was up about five and a half percent. [SPEAKER_00]: So actually pretty good, it beat silver, beat gold stocks.
[SPEAKER_00]: course, you know, Bitcoin is still, you know, barely above 70,000. [SPEAKER_00]: I think as I'm talking, it's around 72, maybe 73,000, 73,200. [SPEAKER_00]: So a little higher, still below the average cost of strategy. [SPEAKER_00]: But back above 70,000, but I don't think it'll stay above 70,000 for long. [SPEAKER_00]: The dollar got beat up on the week. [SPEAKER_00]: Dollar index settled about 98 and a half.
[SPEAKER_00]: And it was above 100, it closed last week and about 100 spot two. [SPEAKER_00]: So the dollar down across the board on the ceasefire. [SPEAKER_00]: Treasury yields were down, but just barely, just barely. [SPEAKER_00]: The yield on the 10 year Treasury dropped to about 4.3 from closer to 4.4. [SPEAKER_00]: And the 30 year yield was down even less. [SPEAKER_00]: barely down. [SPEAKER_00]: It closed at 4.92. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it was maybe 4.95, 4.96, the prior week.
[SPEAKER_00]: So the spread between the 10 and the 30, why did a little bit on the week? [SPEAKER_00]: The big move of course was oil. [SPEAKER_00]: Oil prices were down sharply on the week. [SPEAKER_00]: I think they closed a week ago, Friday. [SPEAKER_00]: I didn't do the shift-gold rap on Friday. [SPEAKER_00]: I did the general podcast on Friday from my boat. [SPEAKER_00]: And so you should have seen that one instead of the official shift-gold video.
[SPEAKER_00]: But oil closed that Friday at 112 because Trump had been raising the level. [SPEAKER_00]: of the war with threats against Iran, which he increased over that weekend, including on Easter Sunday. [SPEAKER_00]: And I talked about that on the podcast I did on Friday. [SPEAKER_00]: But so oil closed at 112 on heightened tensions. [SPEAKER_00]: And when all those tensions were alleviated at least temporarily on Monday morning. [SPEAKER_00]: or choose not Monday morning.
[SPEAKER_00]: I choose the night, choose the night, Taco Tuesday, oil fell sharply. [SPEAKER_00]: So it closed on the week about $96. [SPEAKER_00]: So off about 14, 14, 15 percent on the week. [SPEAKER_00]: But significantly, we're not that far below 100. [SPEAKER_00]: Oil is about where it was two weeks ago. [SPEAKER_00]: So all oil, oil did, is it rallied big when Trump ratcheted up detention, and then came back down when he dialed it back.
[SPEAKER_00]: But if you look at where the price oil is now, it's still 50% higher than it was before Trump started the war at the end of February. [SPEAKER_00]: And we're not going to get the type of relief that the president is promising from the end of this war.
[SPEAKER_00]: If it in fact does end, because again, I mentioned this on my podcast, I did on Tuesday, Tuesday [SPEAKER_00]: following the announcement of the ceasefire, was that the claims that the two sides had made progress in the negotiations was a lie. [SPEAKER_00]: another Trump lie. [SPEAKER_00]: There has been no progress. [SPEAKER_00]: There is nothing but light between the two sides. [SPEAKER_00]: They haven't closed the gap at all.
[SPEAKER_00]: The Iranians have an extreme position, which basically is the unconditional surrender of the U.S. is what it amounts to. [SPEAKER_00]: If you look at their 10 point [SPEAKER_00]: haven't negotiated at all. [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know what they're talking about about all the progress that's being made into negotiations. [SPEAKER_00]: There has been no progress.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the Iranian bargaining position has been strengthened by the actions of Trump and the things that Trump has done to I think increase. [SPEAKER_00]: their bargaining position to come out of this thing, maybe even in better shape than then they went into a sure they're going to they've lost some infrastructure, their navy has been demolished, their air force, I don't know how important those things were in the scheme of things.
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... and you know people have died so obviously you know the old leadership is dead but the new leaders are there it's all it's the same regime again there's nothing that trump can talk all he wants about regime change the regime has changed at all you know that the players may be different but the same game it's the same team right they just brought in you know they're second string or ever to replace the guys that got killed and the new guys can actually be worse for us
[SPEAKER_00]: Remember, I talked about this, the devil, you know, we didn't like the old leadership. [SPEAKER_00]: So we took a chance on new leadership, cut from the same cloth, but maybe even worse than what we had before. [SPEAKER_00]: But I mentioned this, and I'll say again, the reaction to gold, the immediate reaction [SPEAKER_00]: and it was selling off on war is the opposite of what people would expect.
[SPEAKER_00]: Normally, if there's a bigger war, if there's bigger problems in the world, people buy gold as a safe haven. [SPEAKER_00]: And when the temperature cools and the threat diminishes, then they move out of gold. [SPEAKER_00]: But that's not what happened. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I think one of the reasons that gold surrendered it's Taco Tuesday night gains.
[SPEAKER_00]: is because there was so much strength in the overall stock market people were not attracted to the safe haven of gold when they were so risk on with with the NASDAQ and so I think people sold into the the gold rally but it's the initial knee jerk reaction that I think is is significant the way traders are now reacting to the news and it's all key and off
[SPEAKER_00]: The high oil prices keeps the Fed on hold and takes away the much anticipated and highly desired on the part of investors, like a drug addict, craves, drugs, rate cuts. [SPEAKER_00]: And so if high oil prices are what's delaying the rate cuts, then everything that benefits from rate cuts goes down. [SPEAKER_00]: when oil goes up, and so that's gold is a perceived beneficiary of rate cuts.
[SPEAKER_00]: Silver, stocks, crypto, and all the assets that do well when the Fed cuts rates, foreign currencies. [SPEAKER_00]: They all were going down when oil prices were going up and the reverse when oil prices were going down. [SPEAKER_00]: But this is not true. [SPEAKER_00]: Gold and silver are going up regardless of what the Fed does with rates. [SPEAKER_00]: because no matter what the Fed does with rates, real interest rates are going down.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if the Fed raises rates, which I don't think they're going to do, but even if they do it, it won't be enough to close the gap between the increasing inflation rate and the Fed funds rate. [SPEAKER_00]: So no matter what, real interest rates are going way down, inflation is going way up, [SPEAKER_00]: Oil is not the reason that we're going to have higher inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: Oil, if anything, will cause recession, not inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: Why?
[SPEAKER_00]: Because if people have to pay more for energy, they have to cut back on other things. [SPEAKER_00]: Most of the demand destruction is in discretionary purchases. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes, you could cut back somewhat on your energy consumption, [SPEAKER_00]: But other items, you don't have to buy it all. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to upgrade your iPhone. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to take a vacation. [SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to buy the new car.
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't have to buy a new suit of clothes. [SPEAKER_00]: You could make do. [SPEAKER_00]: with what you've got if you're spending too much money on heat and electricity and gas and food. [SPEAKER_00]: So those higher prices don't cause inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: It's only people who have no idea what inflation is that think inflation is rising prices that think that it's higher oil prices that are inflationary. [SPEAKER_00]: They're not. [SPEAKER_00]: They don't cause inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: The government causes inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: What will cause more inflation is not the fact that oil prices go up. [SPEAKER_00]: It's the fact that the Fed ends up printing more money to stimulate the economy because higher oil prices hurt the economy. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's that new money printing rate cuts quantitative easing. [SPEAKER_00]: That's why we have inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not oil prices going up.
[SPEAKER_00]: It's what the Fed does in response to oil prices going up. [SPEAKER_00]: That's what makes all prices go up. [SPEAKER_00]: If the Fed did nothing, oil prices, energy prices would go up. [SPEAKER_00]: Other prices would come down. [SPEAKER_00]: And the overall price level would stay the same. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, the overall standard delivery would go down. [SPEAKER_00]: because people would be spending more money on energy and less money on other things.
[SPEAKER_00]: But when the Fed prints a lot of money, then we pay more money for everything. [SPEAKER_00]: It's not just a price of oil. [SPEAKER_00]: It goes up. [SPEAKER_00]: It's the price of everything else that goes up. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's why goal and silver prices are going to keep rising.
¶ Inflation Data and Fed QE
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, let us look at the economic data that came out today that all points to inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: And by the way, before I even get to that data, [SPEAKER_00]: The post office came out today and announced that they're increasing the price of a first class stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: And so these are the forever stamps. [SPEAKER_00]: So the new price is going to be 82 cents. [SPEAKER_00]: That's the 5% increase from the price last year.
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're up 49% in six years in the price of a stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: That's 8% a year, 8%. [SPEAKER_00]: I think that that is a better government indicator of the cost of living than the CPI. [SPEAKER_00]: And the government lies about the CPI. [SPEAKER_00]: They don't lie about what they charge you to buy a stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: So the government is telling us that inflation is, you know, whatever it is. [SPEAKER_00]: And I forget what it acknowledges.
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe 25, 26% over six years based on the CPI. [SPEAKER_00]: But the post office, the price of a stamp has risen by double the official rate of inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, yes, the post office is obviously not the most efficient group, but, you know, I'm sure that that price increase doesn't even cover. [SPEAKER_00]: They're probably losing more money with a 50% increase in the price of a stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: They probably haven't raised that enough.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would say that given all that, it's a more reliable indicator. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I remember when the post office first introduced, [SPEAKER_00]: the forever stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: My advice to a lot of people, if they didn't have a lot of money, was just to load up on these forever stamps, because I thought they were a better investment that government bonds, because it's basically backed up by the ability to mail a letter.
[SPEAKER_00]: But I said, if you buy a bunch of these stamps and hold on to them, they return on your investment. [SPEAKER_00]: It's good, because you could always sell these stamps. [SPEAKER_00]: You can sell the forever stamp [SPEAKER_00]: there's a market for them. [SPEAKER_00]: So you can have, you know, the price is up 50% and six years. [SPEAKER_00]: You got a 50% gain on your forever stamps. [SPEAKER_00]: You had no downside risk. [SPEAKER_00]: The stamp couldn't go down.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there's no chance the post office was going to lower the price of a stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: They've never done that. [SPEAKER_00]: And so all you could do is stay even or go up. [SPEAKER_00]: So better than buying tips, even. [SPEAKER_00]: It was the best deal the government gave you was a forever stamp. [SPEAKER_00]: Not that I even used that many stamps these days. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the only reason I didn't even load up on myself is that I barely use them.
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I maybe I put a stamp on a letter once a month if that, you know. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think it's a, it's ironic, too, where the government trying to tell us there's no inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: And we'll look at the post office. [SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, but we got a lot more data points that came out. [SPEAKER_00]: So we got the CPI number that came out today. [SPEAKER_00]: I got it here, or is it, this was the March CPI.
[SPEAKER_00]: that included the increase in energy prices. [SPEAKER_00]: Although, you know, a lot of companies, you know, they take a while before they pass on those companies, those price increases. [SPEAKER_00]: So a lot of it didn't hit the consumer prices in March. [SPEAKER_00]: It may have hit producer prices. [SPEAKER_00]: The consumer might not feel the pain until April. [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll get those numbers in May. [SPEAKER_00]: But, um, [SPEAKER_00]: Just the timer went away.
[SPEAKER_00]: Hopefully my audio is still working. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, let me check. [SPEAKER_00]: We were having a lot of problems, well, I guess I'm not getting a call or a text, so maybe it's okay, maybe it's good. [SPEAKER_00]: So the estimate for the CPI for March was up 0.9, big move. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's exactly what we got, a 0.9% increase in the CPI. [SPEAKER_00]: And that was triple the February increase, which was 0.3, which was still a big number.
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, what do you close to 5%, I mean, say, you're well above the Fed's 2% target. [SPEAKER_00]: Even before we had any impact from the war. [SPEAKER_00]: So year over year, the CPI is now up 3.3%. [SPEAKER_00]: Last month, the year over year increase was 2.4%. [SPEAKER_00]: So we are leaving 2% in the distance because now you have to look south to see 3%. [SPEAKER_00]: And pretty soon, we're gonna hit 4% year over year.
[SPEAKER_00]: Soon, x-food and energy, still, prices rose a little bit less than expected, 0.2. [SPEAKER_00]: And the year over year rise was 2.6. [SPEAKER_00]: So that was slightly less than 2.7, they expected, but again, this strips out food and energy. [SPEAKER_00]: So this got nothing to do with the war. [SPEAKER_00]: It's still an increase from February, which was 2.5. [SPEAKER_00]: So we were headed in the wrong direction. [SPEAKER_00]: We were headed in the wrong direction before the war.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now we're headed in that wrong direction even faster, because of the war. [SPEAKER_00]: So even though the markets were relieved that these numbers weren't worse than expected, they're still bad and they're going to get worse as inflation works its way through the system. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, what really is inflation is the money supply. [SPEAKER_00]: M2 money supply year over year is up 5%. [SPEAKER_00]: That's a big move, 5% inflation rate.
[SPEAKER_00]: How are you going to expect prices to go up by 2% when you're increasing the money supply by 5%. [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, there's even, that doesn't count a lot of the bank credit, credit cards, and a lot of stuff that also stimulates demand. [SPEAKER_00]: Because inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit. [SPEAKER_00]: So credit still flowing easy. [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed is cranking up the presses. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, look at the balance sheet.
[SPEAKER_00]: We get the balance sheet numbers every Thursday. [SPEAKER_00]: So we got him yesterday. [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed's balance sheet was up 18 and a half billion on the week. [SPEAKER_00]: We're now just slightly below 6.7 trillion. [SPEAKER_00]: We ended last year, just above 6.5 trillion. [SPEAKER_00]: to the balance sheet so far in 20, 20, six. [SPEAKER_00]: There is quantitative easing going on right now. [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed hasn't admitted it, but that's what they're doing.
[SPEAKER_00]: We're doing quantitative easing. [SPEAKER_00]: So money supply is expanding.
¶ Inflation Not The War
[SPEAKER_00]: The Fed's balance sheet is expanding. [SPEAKER_00]: We have got an inflation problem. [SPEAKER_00]: You could try to blame it. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, they will blame it on the war, but it's not the war. [SPEAKER_00]: It's the Fed that is creating the inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: And they're creating the inflation because of Congress, because of the big beautiful bill. [SPEAKER_00]: because of all the money that the government is spending that it doesn't collect in taxes.
[SPEAKER_00]: And now, Trump proposed about a 50% increase in the defense budget from one trillion to one and a half trillion. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, assuming Congress approves an appropriation like that, I mean, this more inflation is going to be created. [SPEAKER_00]: The war doesn't cause inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: It's the way we pay for it. [SPEAKER_00]: We create inflation to pay for the war.
[SPEAKER_00]: That's another reason not to have wars, because wars always result in inflation, because that's how governments pay for wars. [SPEAKER_00]: And now there are obviously a lot of other reasons not to have wars, but that's one of them. [SPEAKER_00]: So money supply is going up. [SPEAKER_00]: The Fed's balance sheet is going up. [SPEAKER_00]: Look at the personal income and spending numbers. [SPEAKER_00]: These were pretty bad.
[SPEAKER_00]: Personal income was down on the month of February. [SPEAKER_00]: This before the war, this February. [SPEAKER_00]: Down point one, that's pretty bad. [SPEAKER_00]: The consensus was for a rise of point four. [SPEAKER_00]: came in as expected at a point five, but all the spending came from drawing down savings. [SPEAKER_00]: The saving range rate plunge back down to 4% and it's headed a lot lower than that. [SPEAKER_00]: So people are being forced to dip into their savings.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're going to be dipping in a lot more. [SPEAKER_00]: in March or they did we'll get those numbers later, but they obviously had to complete their shallow savings pool even more beat to buy more expensive gas and a lot of other things. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I saw a post about to price a chop meat hitting new record highs, something like I was like 20% higher than it was during COVID. [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, things are getting expensive.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of food items are really getting expensive. [SPEAKER_00]: You know, Donald Trump, you know, call me a loser in an idiot, because I said prices were rising when according to him, they were going down substantially. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, they're not. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, they're rising even faster, although now he's calling a lot more people losers. [SPEAKER_00]: Right? [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you know, he's Tucker Carlson's a loser.
[SPEAKER_00]: And, um, [SPEAKER_00]: I can't afford to lose her and Alex Jones is a loser and I'm not making Callie's a loser. [SPEAKER_00]: Forget everybody that we used to be a big Trump supporter who now doesn't support some of the things he does in their minds are losers. [SPEAKER_00]: Not only losers, they're stupid people. [SPEAKER_00]: They're low IQ stupid people.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, you know, if somebody disagrees with you, you don't win the argument by just calling them names by saying how stupid they are, that's not how, that's not how you win an argument. [SPEAKER_00]: That's how you lose an argument. [SPEAKER_00]: That's how, you know, and funny about that post that, that Trump put out.
[SPEAKER_00]: He writes about on his post, how [SPEAKER_00]: Nobody pays attention to these guys anyway because they've got second, third tier podcasts, no one cares what they say, no one listens to them. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, then why even bother to tell people that they're stupid losers? [SPEAKER_00]: Why do you even care what they say if nobody is paying attention to what they say? [SPEAKER_00]: The fact that Trump had to take time out of his day.
[SPEAKER_00]: to write this lengthy post, you know, like the one that he wrote, I mentioned on my other podcast, about Bruce Springsteen, about saying how lousy his concerts are, and how ugly he is because of his botched plastic surgery, because apparently Bruce Springsteen said something about the who cares, who cares what Bruce Springsteen says. [SPEAKER_00]: When you're the president of the United States, don't even bother, but he can't take any kind of criticism.
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, so but at least I'm not the only one now that but that he but he's specifically called me a trump hating loser jerk [SPEAKER_00]: for recognizing the truth about prices, that they are in fact still going up. [SPEAKER_00]: They are not coming down the way the way he claims. [SPEAKER_00]: But now people are struggling, it's now their incomes are coming down. [SPEAKER_00]: Their prices are going up and incomes are going down. [SPEAKER_00]: So real incomes are getting crushed.
[SPEAKER_00]: But inside the February numbers, again, this is before the war had any impact. [SPEAKER_00]: the PCE was 0.4% on the month again that annualizes out to what about 5% yeah the other one I said 0.3 that was it that was maybe 4.4 is 5% year over year up to 0.8 and the core was up 4% 0.4 rather I had of the consensus of [SPEAKER_00]: Core, Core PC up 3%, that is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: I don't like that one.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's very underrepresented of inflation, but the Fed probably likes it for the same reason I don't, but that's the number of the Fed says it wants to be 2%. [SPEAKER_00]: Core PCE, it was 50% above 2%, before the war. [SPEAKER_00]: So, where's it going to go now with the war? [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, with all the new inflation that's going to be created to pay for the war, that number is going up. [SPEAKER_00]: Also, we got the GDP numbers and came out yesterday.
[SPEAKER_00]: Even worse, this was the final look at Q4 GDP. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, when we got the [SPEAKER_00]: It was 0.7 versus an estimate of 1.4. [SPEAKER_00]: So GDP growth in the fourth quarter was half of what analysts had estimated. [SPEAKER_00]: And again, the 0.7 is the annualized rate. [SPEAKER_00]: The economy didn't grow 0.7 on the quarter.
[SPEAKER_00]: It grew one fourth of 0.7. [SPEAKER_00]: That's an annualized growth rate, not what how much the economy grew in the quarter, [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that was revised down to 0.5. [SPEAKER_00]: That was below the lowest estimate, because the low point was 0.6. [SPEAKER_00]: People were looking for the revision to go anywhere from 0.6 up to 1.4. [SPEAKER_00]: The original estimate.
[SPEAKER_00]: And we ended up going under the under at 0.5. [SPEAKER_00]: So that means that for all of 2025, [SPEAKER_00]: US GDP grew at 2.1%, that's it, that is what Donald Trump calls the greatest economy in the history of the world, not just the history of America, the history of the world, 2.1% GDP growth. [SPEAKER_00]: That's not even the greatest economy of the 2020s. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, Biden's last year, [SPEAKER_00]: GDP in 2024.
[SPEAKER_00]: GDP was 2.8. [SPEAKER_00]: The year before that, it was 2.9. [SPEAKER_00]: Trump first year, 2.1. [SPEAKER_00]: And you know what, his second year is going to be lower than 2.1. [SPEAKER_00]: That could be the high water mark of his presidency, 2.1. [SPEAKER_00]: That was lower than any year of GDP growth under Biden. [SPEAKER_00]: And the Biden economy is the economy that Trump says is the worst in history. [SPEAKER_00]: That when Biden was present, the economy was dead.
[SPEAKER_00]: We were nowhere. [SPEAKER_00]: We were we were finished as a country and he single-handedly led the greatest turnaround in the history of the country where we went from the coldest economy to the hottest economy in the world. [SPEAKER_00]: This miraculous turnaround all because of him when nothing actually turned around. [SPEAKER_00]: under his watch. [SPEAKER_00]: But he doesn't care. [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I said earlier in the podcast, the truth means nothing to Trump.
[SPEAKER_00]: He has a script that he is going to stick to, and the same thing is going to be for the war. [SPEAKER_00]: Even if we lose this war, it's going to be the greatest victory in the history of war, because that's how Trump is going to frame it. [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't matter what actually happens in the war, just like it doesn't matter what it happens in the economy. [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what he talks about. [SPEAKER_00]: That's what he projects.
[SPEAKER_00]: And not what's happening in reality, but what's happening in the president's mind. [SPEAKER_00]: And unfortunately, he's still so popular within the Republican Party, especially his base that nobody will defy him. [SPEAKER_00]: Nope, no Republicans dare get on his bad side, right? [SPEAKER_00]: They all have to, you know, walk in lock, second, step. [SPEAKER_00]: And this is going to be a big problem for Republicans.
[SPEAKER_00]: They think it's helping them, you know, in the primaries is something. [SPEAKER_00]: But they're going to, a lot of Republicans are going to lose their seats to Democrats because of their blind loyalty to the president. [SPEAKER_00]: When the president is clearly wrong, [SPEAKER_00]: But you can't criticize Trump. [SPEAKER_00]: That's probably, he can't take criticism. [SPEAKER_00]: He has to surround himself with Yes Men.
[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody has to just agree with everything that Trump says, which is not a good position. [SPEAKER_00]: The president has advisors for a reason. [SPEAKER_00]: He's not supposed to know everything. [SPEAKER_00]: He's supposed to take advice from people, not just surround himself with a bunch of, with a bunch of Yes Men. [SPEAKER_00]: And we've got rise of inflation.
[SPEAKER_00]: Inflation, I think, in 2026, the way the government measures it, the CPI, will probably be higher than at least three of the four years that Biden was president. [SPEAKER_00]: And before Trump leaves office, we'll have a year that's higher than Biden's highest, [SPEAKER_00]: Consumer prices will increase more during a four years Trump is president than they did during the four years that Biden was president and GDP will be a lot lower.
[SPEAKER_00]: GDP growth will be lower inflation will be higher and the debt we're going to add even more debt. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I think there's a very good chance that we're going to hit 50 trillion. [SPEAKER_00]: on the national debt before Trump leaves office. [SPEAKER_00]: That's almost 11 trillion higher than it is right now. [SPEAKER_00]: And I think there's a good chance that that is going to happen.
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of inflation is going to be created in order to pay [SPEAKER_00]: or to to monetize that debt. [SPEAKER_00]: Now the final number we got today that I wanted to discuss is consumer sentiment for April. [SPEAKER_00]: So this does have the war. [SPEAKER_00]: It doesn't have the ceasefire that just happened because the data was collected before the ceasefire.
[SPEAKER_00]: So that may have mitigated [SPEAKER_00]: That is the lowest it's ever been in the history of this survey. [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't really know how far back it goes. [SPEAKER_00]: I just read it was the lowest ever, right? [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, so I'm sure they weren't doing it 200 years ago. [SPEAKER_00]: So I don't know, but it's certainly lower than it was at any time, Biden was president. [SPEAKER_00]: So consumers are more concerned, are more worried.
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, [SPEAKER_00]: then they were at any point when Biden was president or at any point when Trump was president the first time when we had COVID. [SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure it includes the time period of the 2008 financial crisis. [SPEAKER_00]: So people consumers are more worried now than they were then. [SPEAKER_00]: How can this economy be so great if the consumers are so concerned and so worried about their circumstances?
[SPEAKER_00]: And these numbers would be a lot lower if it wasn't for the hardcore MAGA Republicans who [SPEAKER_00]: You know, everything is great no matter how bad it is, right? [SPEAKER_00]: Because if Trump is president, everything must be great. [SPEAKER_00]: They are so steadfast in their loyalty. [SPEAKER_00]: And you can see like the inflation expectations rose from 3.8% to 4.8%. [SPEAKER_00]: But the Republicans, they're at 1%.
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they went up from 0% to 1%, so the Republicans actually before the war expected no inflation at all, based on what? [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously just based on Trump being president, Trump saying there's no inflation and they believe him. [SPEAKER_00]: So they expect no inflation because Trump told them there's no inflation and they'll believe anything Trump says. [SPEAKER_00]: So if it wasn't for that, [SPEAKER_00]: You know, group of people, these numbers would be much worse.
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, I don't even like to look at what the Democrats, because I recognize that a lot of Democrats are predisposed to hate everything about Trump. [SPEAKER_00]: And so if Trump is president, they may say the economy is lousy, just because Trump's president. [SPEAKER_00]: And so I just look at the independence. [SPEAKER_00]: And because the independence in theory don't have a dog in the race, right? [SPEAKER_00]: They're more objective.
[SPEAKER_00]: And as I said in the last podcast, Trump's approval on the economy within dependence isn't all time record low. [SPEAKER_00]: No president, no incumbent president has ever been had an approval rating this low on the economy as Trump. [SPEAKER_00]: The very economy that Trump claims is the greatest in history. [SPEAKER_00]: Well, if it's so great, why don't people realize how great it is? [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is the one that's wrong.
[SPEAKER_00]: The people that actually live in the economy, not in the White House that's being turned into a palace. [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is, you know, worth billions. [SPEAKER_00]: He's in fact he's gained billions in his net worth since he took the oath of office. [SPEAKER_00]: So obviously, he's not living in the real economy. [SPEAKER_00]: It's those independent voters that are so disapproving of his handling of the economy.
[SPEAKER_00]: They're the ones that are forced to live in this economy that Trump thinks is red hot. [SPEAKER_00]: But they know it's ice cold. [SPEAKER_00]: They know the actual temperature.
¶ Stagflation Bull Case
[SPEAKER_00]: But anyway, so all of this news is bullish for gold. [SPEAKER_00]: Stackflation that's going to get worse on both sides. [SPEAKER_00]: Condemn is going to get weaker. [SPEAKER_00]: Inflation is going to get stronger. [SPEAKER_00]: Defet is on hold until it eventually cuts because it will be forced to cut by all the political pressure [SPEAKER_00]: because of the economy, the weakness in the labor market, the weakness potentially in the stock market.
[SPEAKER_00]: And the Fed is going to excuse once again the increase in prices. [SPEAKER_00]: It's going to ignore money supply, ignore its balance sheet, which is the real talent inflation. [SPEAKER_00]: And it's going to claim that it's temporary, it's transitory, it's due to the war, it's a lingering effect of tariffs. [SPEAKER_00]: We're going to look through that because we have bigger problems and gold is going to go ballistic. [SPEAKER_00]: The dollar is going to tank.
[SPEAKER_00]: So before that happens again to my customers of shift gold, keep on buying, you know, gold is not going to stay below 5,000 for long right now it's below 4750 by gold this weekend by silver at 75 in change. [SPEAKER_00]: Remember we blew through this $50 resistance. [SPEAKER_00]: We're not going anywhere near that. [SPEAKER_00]: the support obviously is now just below 70, but like 75, we are going to take off in the price of silver.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is the best environment that the sell off I think was very healthy. [SPEAKER_00]: We did get some people that kind of jumped on the bandwagon earlier this year when golden silver prices were skyrocketing. [SPEAKER_00]: Gold was over 5,500 silver was 120. [SPEAKER_00]: We got some short-term speculators.
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think we've cleared out a lot of that excess baggage and the bull train is going to keep on riding Some people I think now again, they're going to have to get much higher prices. [SPEAKER_00]: They got they got scared because gold pull back Oh, there was a war and gold went down. [SPEAKER_00]: Yes because it went up so much in anticipation of the war So there's a buy the rumor cell to fact, but the trend is up [SPEAKER_00]: You can't be disappointed in 4,750-hour goal.
[SPEAKER_00]: This is a major uptrend, and we haven't seen the highs. [SPEAKER_00]: We're not even close to the highs, and we're not even close to the highs and silver. [SPEAKER_00]: So buy some silver, and don't forget, if you don't have your T-Gold account, if you're a shift goal customer, you're not really a shift goal customer until you also have a T-Gold account. [SPEAKER_00]: There's no excuse not to set one up.
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of stuff's going to happen with T-gold, trust me we're working on it, but in the short term what you can do with T-gold is fund your account. [SPEAKER_00]: You could buy some gold and silver, there's no minimum, just get yourself set up and you'll be ready to go. [SPEAKER_00]: Worst case, you own gold and silver, price is going to go up, so your T-gold account should go up.
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, the gold stocks, they were up this week, but [SPEAKER_00]: not nearly as much as they should. [SPEAKER_00]: They're still way off their highs from February. [SPEAKER_00]: Way off their highs. [SPEAKER_00]: And they never really got to overvalued. [SPEAKER_00]: They were still cheap before this big correction. [SPEAKER_00]: And so now they're an even better bison.
[SPEAKER_00]: If you don't have exposure to mining stocks, get some exposure, go, you know, if you're not a client of your Pacific asset management, check out my asset management company, [SPEAKER_00]: And I'm also [SPEAKER_00]: You can buy my goal fund. [SPEAKER_00]: Your specific goal fund, E.P.G.I.X, is the no-load symbol.
[SPEAKER_00]: And also, you know, we picked up a new sponsor that my first goal company sponsor, West Red Lake mining, which is a Canadian company that I've owned for a while. [SPEAKER_00]: And then they decided to sponsor my actual podcast. [SPEAKER_00]: So that's another stock that you can look at too, as the only official goal company that sponsors my podcast. [SPEAKER_00]: a great speculative opportunity.
[SPEAKER_00]: So if you're bullish on gold and silver, you really should have positions in the mining stocks as well as the metals themselves. [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, I have a special report that I wrote, it's like a year old now. [SPEAKER_00]: You can get it on my on the European website. [SPEAKER_00]: The best way to buy gold. [SPEAKER_00]: It's still there. [SPEAKER_00]: And it was buying gold in the ground. [SPEAKER_00]: Gold stocks and silver stocks have gone way up.
[SPEAKER_00]: The timing on that special report was [SPEAKER_00]: for anybody who downloaded it and acted on it right when I wrote it because that was before the goal stocks moved at all and then they tripled. [SPEAKER_00]: So it was great timing. [SPEAKER_00]: But I think the story is still relevant even if it's not as perfect on a timing perspective. [SPEAKER_00]: I think it's still cheaper to buy it in the ground than buy it from shift gold although you should buy both.
[SPEAKER_00]: Uh, that's it for this week. [SPEAKER_00]: I'll be back again. [SPEAKER_00]: Uh, next week again. [SPEAKER_00]: If you're not currently a subscriber, I should have said this earlier on, but if you're not currently a subscriber to the shift called YouTube channel, subscribe now and tell your friends and make sure they subscribe, make sure and like the video and leave me a comment. [SPEAKER_00]: Have a great weekend and see you next week.