Airlines represent one of the most challenging and complex industries in today’s economy. With thousands of flights moving people and cargo around the world every day, airlines manage a “complicated logistical dance,” as Oscar Munoz, United Airlines’ former Chairman and CEO, tells us in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The airline industry has adapted and evolved through technological innovation, consolidation, regulatory changes, and an increasingly competitive transportation sector—pr...
Jun 10, 2025•23 min•Season 5Ep. 6
Critical shipping routes around the world, from the Panama Canal to the Bosphorus Strait, hold strategic importance for global trade. As a result, these chokepoints are often caught in the crosshairs of geopolitical competition. But in a new age of economic warfare, invisible chokepoints are also emerging. The dominance of the US dollar, economic sanctions, and tariffs on imported goods can all be leveraged to achieve political goals. Meanwhile, nations are laying out plans to increase defense s...
May 13, 2025•27 min•Season 5Ep. 5
Exploring the continued evolution of the ETF landscape, fueled by rapid growth in active ETFs and an expanding universe of investment choices. ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, were born out of a need for greater market liquidity following the 1987 stock market crash known as Black Monday. US regulators determined that institutions needed the ability to trade stocks more efficiently and cost-effectively during trading days. In 1993, the first ETF in the US emerged: SPY. With one trade, investors c...
Apr 08, 2025•26 min•Season 5Ep. 4
With a standard deck of cards, there are around 2.5 million potential hands at the start of each game of poker. The key to success is in the decision process—determining how to play a hand, and how much to bet, despite not knowing which cards are in another player’s hand. Like in poker, every investment decision includes at least some degree of uncertainty. What lessons can poker teach investors about sizing their bets, managing risk, and making better decisions for their portfolio? This episode...
Mar 11, 2025•23 min•Season 5Ep. 3
The world’s superpowers are engaging in a different type of arms race beyond the battlefield. With technology advancing at a speedy pace, a global competition for all the ingredients necessary to support artificial intelligence—from data centers and semiconductors to the AI models themselves—is heating up. Not only do these ingredients form the building blocks of today’s economy, but building a secure and reliable flow of data is also considered a key national security objective. The UK designat...
Feb 12, 2025•26 min•Season 5Ep. 2
Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, formulated a theory called the butterfly effect—based on a hypothetical scenario in which a butterfly, simply by flapping its wings, affects a tornado weeks later. The butterfly effect illustrates how small actions in complex systems can lead to big changes, underscoring the challenges in making forecasts. This is particularly relevant for investors. A complex global economy often takes unexpected turns, and macro disruptions and uncertainty pres...
Jan 06, 2025•24 min•Season 5Ep. 1
Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China’s Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape’s evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security has grown, increasingly becoming the focus of today’s geopolitical fractures amid global competition...
Nov 12, 2024•26 min•Season 4Ep. 11
The use of economic statecraft is on the rise. With rivalries among major economies intensifying, countries are increasingly employing tariffs, sanctions and subsidies, contributing to a global realignment in trade flows. Meanwhile, elections in the US and Europe portend new debates over taxes, government spending, and the right fiscal formula to support growth and productivity. In the US, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s tax reductions for individuals are due to expire in 2025, setting the stag...
Oct 08, 2024•26 min•Season 4Ep. 10
The “year of democracy” holds the potential to bring profound change to global politics, economic policy, and the investment environment. By the end of 2024, more than five dozen countries, accounting for nearly half of the world’s population, will elect new leaders. Elections in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany and European Union, have already yielded both expected and surprising results. The US presidential election in November, as well as key congressional races, also could create si...
Sep 09, 2024•25 min•Season 4Ep. 9
Cities have faced a host of challenges over the course of history, such as affordable housing, transportation, public safety and economic opportunities. In today’s rapidly changing global economy, these challenges are becoming increasingly complex, with cities needing to adapt to technological advancements, climate risks, and fluctuating fiscal policies. The most successful cities are dynamic and adapt to changing circumstances. Consider Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as a prime example. Once known f...
Aug 13, 2024•26 min•Season 4Ep. 8
In the middle of the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt spearheaded the creation of Social Security, forever changing the US retirement system and how Americans think about long-term savings. Only a few pensions existed at the time, and Social Security was the first government-backed program to provide for the basic welfare of all seniors. The retirement landscape in the US—and around the world—has no doubt undergone massive change since the days of FDR. DC plans have significantly i...
Jul 09, 2024•30 min•Season 4Ep. 7
Harry Markowitz, the legendary economist and father of modern portfolio theory, has been credited with saying that diversification is the only free lunch in investing. However, his work on the efficient frontier shows that investors give up expected returns to lower expected risk. This may make diversification even more compelling. With uncertainty becoming a prevailing theme in financial markets and the global economy, focusing on the benefits on diversification could prove valuable for investo...
Jun 11, 2024•26 min•Season 4Ep. 6
Millions of college students across the US graduate each spring and enter the workforce. When today’s retirees entered the workforce in the early 1980s, pension plans and Social Security benefits were two of the main sources of retirement income. Just a couple decades later, defined benefit (DB) plans were overtaken by defined contribution (DC) plans such as 401(k)s, and an aging population was slowly depleting the Social Security Trust Fund. This was a massive shift in a relatively short period...
May 07, 2024•26 min•Season 4Ep. 5
The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take stock of hidden risks that may reveal themselves as current market conditions evolve. What strategies ...
Apr 09, 2024•25 min•Season 4Ep. 4
Some medical breakthroughs come from unexpected sources. The origins of new weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic—known in the industry as GLP-1s—can be traced back to 2005, when they were introduced as a treatment for diabetes. Two decades later, these drugs have seemingly burst onto the medical scene, gaining notoriety for their ability to help people lose weight and the potential implications for a variety of other business sectors. This “Ozempic effect” serves as an important lesson for investor...
Mar 19, 2024•24 min•Season 4Ep. 3
A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world’s largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks. With a tsunami of debt lurking in the distance, investors must take stock of the potential ramificat...
Feb 13, 2024•24 min•Season 4Ep. 2
Industrial policy is making a comeback in the West. The US, Europe and other governments have introduced new incentives to the private sector in hopes of bringing supply chains closer to home, boosting domestic industries, and building strategic advantages in key technologies such as semiconductors and EVs. But success is not guaranteed. Can governments pick winners and losers? Do the potential benefits of industrial spending, such as driving innovation and economic growth, outweigh the conseque...
Jan 09, 2024•28 min•Season 4Ep. 1
In this environment of uncertainty, it's more important than ever for investors to think outside the box. Welcome to The Outthinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM that examines past events, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities across global capital markets. In Season 4, hosted by Toby Ricketts, experts from PGIM and the investment world bring unique perspectives as we explore a fast-changing landscape of investment opportunities and risks. Join us as we take a deep ...
Dec 22, 2023•1 min
The invention of the spinning jenny in 1764 upended the textile industry—and the women who earned a living weaving cotton and preparing fabrics in their homes. Suddenly, these jobs became obsolete. Just as the industrial revolution had a profound impact on how people worked and lived, structural forces are transforming global labor markets today, from slowing globalization to the advent of generative AI. The evolution of labor markets is poised to reshape the macro landscape in the years to come...
Nov 27, 2023•28 min•Season 3Ep. 9
In one of Rembrandt’s famous paintings, Storm on the Sea of Galilee , a ship’s crew struggles to navigate through an epic storm thrashing the ship. But toward the stern, Jesus sits calmly. This image graced the cover of Peter Bernstein’s classic book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. So what can investors take away from a classic piece of Renaissance art? Market shocks can emerge suddenly and in unexpected ways. Mitigating the impact of these risks is no doubt challenging when the...
Oct 09, 2023•23 min•Season 3Ep. 8
Fans of the long-running game show Jeopardy will remember that one famous contestant stood out from the rest. IBM’s supercomputer, named Watson, beat two human opponents in a 2011 competition that brought artificial intelligence into the spotlight. More than a decade later, AI has taken a giant leap forward. Generative AI, made popular by the launch of ChatGPT, has already made its impact felt on the investment world, and it appears poised to shake up the modern economy as businesses find new wa...
Aug 08, 2023•27 min•Season 3Ep. 7
Ever since the oil crisis of the 1970s and the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the United States has held millions of barrels of oil in a stockpile to safeguard the country—and its economy—from future supply shocks. Just as oil has kept the world’s economic engine running, a new critical component has emerged: the microchip. Everything from satellites and missiles to cars and toasters are powered by chips, making the semiconductor industry a linchpin of both the global economy and n...
Jul 11, 2023•26 min•Season 3Ep. 6
From growing rice on Mars to developing new farming techniques here on Earth, the future of food is rapidly evolving. The global food system—spanning farms, factories, grocery stores and more—is a complex network that has far-reaching economic implications. It is also inefficient and increasingly unfit for purpose, encouraging innovation across the value chain that will give rise to attractive investment opportunities. In the newest episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we take a deep dive...
Jun 13, 2023•27 min•Season 3Ep. 5
Watch the video version of this episode by visiting www.pgim.com/david-rubenstein . Private markets represent a fast-growing asset class with unique opportunities for investors. The growth of private equity in particular has transformed the investment landscape over the last several decades. Private equity assets more than doubled over the course of a decade to reach $11.5 trillion by 2021. David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group, has played a prominent role in the evolution of private...
May 09, 2023•34 min•Season 3Ep. 4
This is the final installment of a two-part episode in which we further examine what sparked the latest bank crisis and whether it was a canary in the coal mine. Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator and writer of Unhedged for the Financial Times, and John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level , join us to discuss the implications of banking fragilities, keeping a long-term investment horizon amid market volatility, and how swel...
Apr 17, 2023•24 min•Season 3Ep. 3
Like a lighthouse surveying the waters for signs of distress, investors are challenged to shield their portfolios from potential turmoil in financial markets. But uncovering risks before they reveal themselves is a monumental task—even for the most savvy investors. Fault lines lurking in the banking sector came into view in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. As a consequence of the pivot from years of ultra-low rates to the sudden tightening of monetary policy, investors must be on...
Apr 11, 2023•21 min•Season 3Ep. 3
The Hotel Lafayette in downtown Buffalo, New York, was the site of the first-ever meeting of the Optimist Club, which gathered during a tumultuous period for financial markets following the panic of 1910. Research has shown that optimism provides a sense of control. As uncertainty hovers over markets today, investors might seek to harness the power of optimism to overcome financial stress and make better decisions for their portfolios. Can investors remain optimistic while also surveilling marke...
Mar 07, 2023•26 min•Season 3Ep. 2
Labor markets around the world tightened during the pandemic, contributing to a rapid rise in inflation. Demographic changes could make tight labor markets a lasting characteristic of the global economy. Most of the world’s biggest economies are home to an aging citizenry, while their populations are growing at a slower rate overall. These trends have the potential to alter market dynamics in the decades to come. Katharine Neiss, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief European Economist, and Charles Goodhart...
Feb 07, 2023•27 min•Season 3Ep. 1
When the future becomes increasingly uncertain, investors need to cut through the noise and think beyond the obvious answers. In season three of The OUTThinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM, global thought leaders and PGIM experts will bring their unique perspectives for the year ahead and beyond. Is inflation finally on the retreat? Can labor markets withstand an economic slowdown and demographic headwinds? Will the tense geopolitical climate ease or escalate? What is the outloo...
Jan 13, 2023•1 min
Investors are challenged to mitigate the impact of a variety of risks, from rising inflation to a global economic downturn. What about the risks that are harder to imagine? Recent events such as the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have altered the investment outlook in significant ways, turning a spotlight on the potential for new tail risks that may be on the horizon. In this episode, author and UC Berkeley lecturer Kevin Coldiron and Columbia Business School professor Laura Veldkamp discuss re...
Dec 12, 2022•29 min•Season 2Ep. 8
