The o'chill Effect is sponsored by Wallstreet, Window dot com, the listeners like you Yeah and nowerd and Media. February twenty nine, twenty twenty four, allegedly, according to that thing we call a calendar. Yeah, that's right, it's a new year, allegedly anyway, you know how that goes. They add an extra date to February, and this is it, and it's Thursday as well. Happy to have Mike Swanson with me here on the ocell Effect here on a Thor's Day. And what are we going to talk about?
Well, I'm already looked over at an article on Wallstreet window dot com. Go over, be in the know, go check out Wallstreet, Window dot com. It's not just about Wall Street, but also Mike Swanson, the author of The War State, Why the Vietnam War. Not today, we're not talking about Vietnam, but the War State. We might get to. That's that red book, by the way, that's in the sidebar Atocelli dot com. You see Ike on the oncover giving his farewell speech about oh
wait, the military industrial complex. I wonder if that's going to come up in tonight's show anyway. Mike, First off, before we get into what's on your mind? How are you doing tonight? I'm doing pretty good. This is gonna be an interesting topic for people. As you mentioned before we got in the air, people aren't thinking about China that much, not in this sense of what would happen if there's a conflict with China over Taiwan.
And China's in the news all the time now, I mean today President Biden made an announcement declaring that Chinese electric vehicles or national security threat. So, I mean, there's lots of fear about China, and well, some of it's kind of a good reason, right, because people constantly talk about China. Why intellectual properties, the fact that technology, logically, there's vulnerabilities here. The Chinese are extremely advanced in the world. They're clearly an adversarial nation,
et cetera, et cetera. Now, some people very much claim that Biden is pretty much in China's pocket, and then you see stuff like this come out where the hyperbole steps up and they talk about the electric vehicles being a big threat, and one wonders if that's just a move that has to do with business, or is it really a sphere of influence move. Are we really in the midst of a true cold war with China. And by the way, people that are talking about the military conflict and the possibility of
it, Yeah, Taiwan's in the background. Taiwan's in the background, but it's no longer seemingly on the front burner in everybody's mind where it was maybe this time last year, you know, previous to the situation in Israel from after October. Right, Well, I mean at the moment everything is in the new is being overshadowed when it comes to international conflict with about Israel. And I'm sure you know on college campuses and elsewhere, that's the issue students
are thinking about, and vice versa. On the right, there's an obsession with some of worshiping the state of Israel. So I so that's what you know, The Israel is in a lot of people's imagination. Well, it's weird because when they had that guy who what was his name, the guy who was in Trump's cabinet and then kind of turned on him, who was a Fox News guy and all that, you know, his big thing was China and China, China, China, Right, everybody was worried about it.
The tariff wars, what happened with all that the exchange is the business. And then, like I said, Taiwan a big issue, but it went to the back burner because not only Israel, but let's not forget also for the past two years now the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, and everybody wants to talk about Putin. So again the Chinese have fallen to the background
in general. But the thing is, a conflict with China would be the most dangerous scenario that could happen that I can imagine in the next ten years. And it's one that's possible. I'm not saying it's likely, but it's possible. In what I came across was a Rand Institute study that kind of war gained it what would happen? And then another article that I heard about
from the Scott Horton Show. He had a guest that was discussing an article in a publication by the Atlantic Council about what would happen if Taiwan and they were advocating a course of action. So in both of these articles are fairly
alarming when you when you read them for different re It is Atlantic. We'll get into it in a second, but I want to first lay out that two things, there's the United States side and the Chinese side, and I think I don't I'm going to flat out say that when it comes to what is going on in China and what the Chinese are thinking, I really don't know, and I'm not going to pretend to know. And over the past ten fifteen years, I've heard many people make these statements about China that are
kind of predictive. China's going to collapse, China's going to do this and then do that. And I don't think people really have any clue of you know, they're just saying things they don't really have any real information. Well, let's talk about that really quickly, because let's be honest for a minute. It's a lot of speculation because we're not on the same Internet as China basically, right, We're not getting fed the same information. Clearly, there's
a propaganda war always in play. There's the language barrier, which is a lot more severe than we have with a lot of other nation states, et cetera, et cetera. So when people are talking about China, quite honestly, they're talking about an isolated society that they're not as openly aware of to
begin with, so speculation runs higher to begin with. And you know, all those articles that you mentioned, by the way, the Rand Corporation study, the Atlantic Council article, and also an article from Wall Street Window dot com will all be available in the show notes, and I've also put it in the live chatroom Atochelli dot com, so you guys can always roll that
back after the show, even if you're hearing this in podcasts. Anyways, the thing is that the the articles that you're referencing are there in present fear guys to click on and follow through with. But look, when people do this analysis about what's going on in China, there's a lot of guesswork involved.
Uh. And then on the surface we have the issues. Right remember when even Trump took office, there was a big thing about being congratulated by you know, the wrong guy because they're supposed to be the one China policy and all of that going on, and you got to watch what you say and who you say it to, and it's a touchy situation. And also the since the fall of the Soviet Union, right, what were we always told this is our big major thread on the planet. Population wise, they
outpace us technologically they could be outpacing us. Oh and by the way, don't forget the balloons. Uh, you know what I mean. It's it's been a weird trip here where there's a lot of guesswork involved, where people are looking from the outside in and not really understanding first of all, the internal politics, the way the business runs over there, the relationship with the government, and also military estimates. I think there's a lot of guesswork involved
here. So what are we talking about at the end of the day, does anybody outside of China really know what's going on in China? Mine? Well, I don't think so. And the flip side of that is when Trump got in office, from what I was reading in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, there were stories where the Chinese people were asking what's going on here and not really certain themselves what Trump was about because there
was some mixed signals set right when Trump got in office. People in the United States didn't see it, but I know we may note of it on your show. I mean, this is right when Trump got in mixed signals during the Trump administration. You're kidding, Well, people will have no memory of this. They didn't even see it because these were messages not delivered to the American people, but on Ivanka Trump's Instagram account, she was dressing up
one of her children in Chinese outfits. And for a few weeks in China, they were playing that on Chinese media and in playing up by Ivanka Trump, and and I think she was saying something like she's having her child. I think it was a daughter, but I'm not, you know, uh and bet money on it. But she's made she's making statements to the Chinese media that she was having her daughter take Mandarin lessons and this kind of stuff. And he's out. You know, this is a you can go back
on Instagram and look at this stuff. But what was going on is they were sending signals to each other and it wasn't clear what, you know, what was really going on. And as time went on, though, it does seem in the Rain report that I cite that we'll talk about in a minute, says in it that the Chinese have become increasingly suspicious of the United States, and for good reason, you know, the tariff war that Trump
has launched. And as you mentioned, really Biden has continued and he is not really deviated at all from the course that Trump took when it comes to Chinese relations with China. In fact, Biden made some statements himself last year that he would send American soldiers to defend Taiwan, you know, which goes against decades of official American policy in regards to whether we would defend Taiwan or not or recognize it as an independent country independent from China, the so called
to China policy. So and then when Biden made that statement, it was immediately walked back by figures in his administration that Security advisor, Secretary of State. You know, this is the same sort of stuff that happened all the time when Donald Trump was president. So it wasn't you know, in some regards when it comes to at least this one issue, I would say Biden
has been acting identically to the former president Trump. Oh well, you can't tell his supporters that though, and you can't tell him that there's a serious mixed message because Ivanka at one point was getting you know, Chinese patents and
things. At another point it looked like, you know, that's right, Trump was also let's you know, continue to go through the history, Trump was very much blaming China directly for you know, the the the the COVID situation, right, the China virus, remember, uh So, I mean, we've had a lot of mixed messages over the past few years. And still, like you said, this strong rhetoric coming from the Biden administration's weird.
Despite the fact that a lot of people had said that Biden was going to be very well weak on China and and give in to them and everything else. Doesn't seem that way on the surface, but who knows at this point. I mean, it's it's a rather confusing landscape. So you know, for the Chinese government or the people of China to be a little confused, I don't blame them or to be a little surprised or to feel suspicious over you know what, what really is the American position here regarding China?
How is it they're actually going to handle us going forward? And everything else? And meanwhile, the ran Corps bration it's an interesting study as well. So let's let's get into that. What what are we what are we looking at? You well, to set up what they're saying too. Uh So.
Another reason I'm interested in this issue is because where I live. I live in Virginia, there's a defense program that started and now live in a city and the small you know about size where you live, uh say, an area of one hundred thousand people, including the county, and the Navy has started a defense program here. I live three miles away from the Norfolk Hampton Road shipyards and they started a program here to train people to do welding
for shipbuilding and submarine building. Now the Navy has is instituting a new a program to build and a whole new generation of nuclear and attack submarines. This is their number one priority is to build you know, this defense program. Just as bombers when General LEA May was, you know, head of the Air Force, were the key weapon of the Air Force. These submarines now are seen as the most important element, the future element of the Navy.
And what's happened about it, We talked about it on the show when they were first start bringing that program into your area and introducing it. So yeah, go ahead. What's important though, is that these submarines, each one takes years to build, and I don't think they've They may have built one and that's about it so far, like a prototype, and the program to
do it has barely gotten off the ground. So they said where I live, that they were going to train a thousand people to work on these things three years ago, and twenty twenty happened, or five years ago they said this, twenty twenty happened, the program get delayed. Then they said, we're gonna do it next year. Here we are twenty twenty four and they're saying we're going to train a thousand people next year. They got they are
training some people, but not a thousand in twelve months. And from what I understand is the reason the training is delayed is the overall program is delayed because the supply chain issues and the shipbuilding capacity, not just for submarines but everything all ships, whether it's merchant vessels or naval ships or whatnot. The entire shipbuilding capacity to the United States, it was like hollowed out in the late eighties and nineties as much of the country, you know, de industrialized.
So the way the situation is now, the Chinese are building ships at a greater rate, their naval capacity at a much greater rate. The United States is, and the Navy is simply trying to catch up. And if you think of when our submarines and these things are supposed to come online. You're talking like ten years from now. So we do have at the moment, despite the lag in production, we have a at least what they say, you know, I believe it. We have more ships and better ships
than the Chinese. But they are going to surpass us within ten years, and we're just gonna be trying to, you know, build better things and catch up. So at some point they will have a naval advantage. Whether that's just gonna be temporary or not, you know, we'll see. But
in Taiwan is obviously closer to China than it is the United States. And from articles, not these two, but other articles about this topic I've read, for the United States to defend Taiwan now against a Chinese invasion would require the help of Australia and Japan. The Japanese would have to have drones and fighters and and be directly involved. So we don't really have from everything I've read, we really don't have the capability to stop them with naval forces if
there was a war next month now. So the two articles that I want to talk about, the first from the Atlantic Council, both of them are posing the question if there was a war. If China invaded Taiwan, how can the United States stop them? Now? The Atlantic Council is a think
tank defense think tank, and it's made up. It's a bipartisan think tank, and it has figures on it such as Conna Lisa Rice, James Baker, Leon Panetta who is a Democrat, Colin Powell Night label was a more moderate Republican, Admiral Michael Mullen who was head of the Navy, Robert Gates who is head of the Central Intelligence Agents see General Dunford who was a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, So David Petraeus, who was once
lionized as one of the greatest generals ever by Time magazine, plus head of the CIA as well. Yeah, yeah, So these are the type of people that are directors now of the Atlantic Council. So I say that in order to point out that this isn't just a crackpot article, although it has a crackpot conclusion to it. Well, these are people, though, that had a front row seat, right And I'm also reminded by somebody in the skype. You know about the Whuawei situation, and you know, different tech
issues with China as well as you know, the fentanyl crisis. A lot of people pointing the finger at China being the manufacturer of either the the the fentanyl directly or the precursors. And yeah, there's a lot of interplay here, and China is a major threat technologically, socially, et cetera. And again was one of the major focuses of you know, again a lot of the rhetoric that has gone on here. Now what's interesting to me is in
ten years were lagging behind. And yes, we had the everything going on pause in twenty twenty because of the COVID situation, and that stalled almost any program of any of any significance. It seems like everything from the JFK releases to this subprogram, right, anything the government was doing went on pause temporarily for certain. But you know, all of these things coming together, this is this is a strange situation. What crackpot conclusion do we have from all
these former secretaries of State and members of the Joint Chiefs CIA heads. I mean, these are people so their name isn't known this report. Uh so I'm not going to blame it on them. Uh well, no, but these are people with significant positions in these organizations. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I'm just saying they're directors of this Atlantic Institute this and and you know they're publishing The Atlantic Institute's publishing this thing, and uh,
both of these reports. You know, they're dealing with the obvious problem here. Both the United States in China have uh nuclear a lot of nuclear weapons and can strike each other, uh and wipe each other out. And you know, so if you're going to have a war uh with China over Taiwan, how do you fight it without ending the world so to speak? How do you keep it a limited war, a limited conflict that doesn't get
out of control? The article from the Atlantic Council just flat out says considered a deliberate nuclear use of deliberate nuclear use of weapons, not accidental, but just use them and how can we do that? So what you're telling me is we're back to the let's see if we can win the nuclear war ideals. No, no, no, it's it's not it's it doesn't it's not advocating striking mainly in China are trying to wipe them out in the first strike.
But the official policy, well, I'm not saying it's unofficial. The policy of just flat out put it this way. The policy of the Joint Chief of Staff, the Joint Staff, the Planning and the Pentagon is not to use, not to use nuke your weapons first. That's policy, all right. This article is advocating to use them first, okay. And it's what's wild is the way it wants, the way it says to do it. So it was to do it in a way which will not trigger China
responding by launching a nu kar attack in the United States. It's assuming that the United States will not be able to stop China from landing a force on the island of Taiwan. And therefore it had it says what we should do is just let them land on Taiwan. But I have to laugh because it's so crazy. Let them land in Taiwan and then launch the nuclear attack on Taiwan. Yeah, but see that's the craziest thing, because what good does
that do? Number one? Number two, I don't think anybody. I mean, look, the people that are in our government currently are not going to take the position, well, we can't do anything about it. If China decides to take Taiwan by force, that's not going to be the official
government position for people that are currently in office. But realistically, I don't think I've seen an analyst of any kind outside of our government that's currently employed by our government who has said anything but we could do you know, could we do anything about this? Probably not not currently. And as they begin to offa study is going to argue a little differently when we get to it.
But okay, this article is saying we should launch if China invades Taiwan, we should use nuclear weapons on the soil of Taiwan against the Chinese forces, and it bits that, you know, the Taiwan the Taiwanese may not like us to do that. So therefore we need to talk to them ahead of time now in playing this out with them. And this is how you can use nuclear weapons in a limited war scenario. You know, it doesn't
get out of control. That's insane. I mean, what country is going to get you know, look and Mike, I'm telling you what, We're gonna knock some nukes on your country over here. You guys are cool with it if we can just keep it on the shoreline, right What I mean? You know what what kind of madness is that that makes no sense at all. Mike, are you sure that this is what they're advocating. I mean, yeah, people could read it for themselves. It's right in there.
But I mean, realistically, under what scenario in the world would anyone that is remotely rational say, yeah, it's okay if you guys nucas a little bit, it'll be all right long as you're helping to keep the Chinese from getting in here. I don't think anybody would be pleased with that. I mean, Taiwan's not that large, you know, I mean, it's not like, Wow, that's just that's insane to me, that that that's that's just beyond stupid. Okay, we need to talk to them about it
first. I mean, what what is going on with the Atlanta Council anyway? Well, they're basically, I mean, this is a very long article. It's twenty pages. Yeah, and they're just going they're going through every possible scenario of you know, should you nuke the Chinese boats, should you nuke mainly in China, And it just comes down to the best scenario is nuke Taiwan? Basically, yeah, best scenario. But I doubt anybody in
Taiwan's gonna agree that that's the best scenario. I mean, would who would voluntarily say that is just that that's beyond belief to me that that that that's even remotely some kind of Well, let me give you, let me give you the following. This course of logic, the the key the recommendations to make uh sure, okay, go ahead? Uh? Do you want to prevent the war from even starting right? Uh? First, you know, so again, we'll work with Taiwan to set up these scenarios so you can
put them in action. Next, move away from the current policy so called strategic ambiguity, where you know, we're saying we won't sort of hit, we won't defend Taiwan, then say we will, and then go back and forth like Biden's statement. Then it's walked back. Move away from that to a full out pledge to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion, much like we have NATO. You know, make a new uh about a complete defense commitment. Uh, and you and state that nuclear weapons will be part of that.
And and this is to deter the war from ever happening. But again, I wonder what business we have to introduce this, And it's just still
it's kind of crazy. But of course doing that, we could could provoke the war, you know too, I mean if if Biden does, because you're you're escalating the diplomatic situation, you know, well, that's escalating and skipping a few steps to be honestly, do you because I mean, we're at a point where the wrong rhetoric comes out and the Chinese government basically condemns you know, the idea that you call it something other than a part of China. Right. Uh, if it's if it's on a map and it's
not properly colored in the right color, they get upset. There's been all kinds of weird things here. Even when Nikki Haley was in the the you know, was our ambassador of the UN, right. Uh, there was all kinds of things here. It's a very touchy subject with the Chinese, at least publicly. Now, I gotta I mean this, Yeah, these
documents are wild. So let me just read you this sentence. I mean, this is a recommendation, all right, Okay, The United States should provide the Taiwanese military the training and equipment to provide conventional support to US nuclear operations and to operate in the environment likely to prevail after a nuclear detonation. Okay, so get wow, all right, So get them ready for it, and then prep them for what we're gonna do after, you know,
the bombs are dropped and you have this problem now on your soil. Okay, I don't do we do we have the kind of cooperative relationship currently to do this or would we have to establish it? That's another thing. And uh still I'm stuck on how crazy this is? Go go ahead? What else do we have to point to in this? Well that's the main I mean, this, this is what I've really wanted to point out. I mean, people can read the whole thing. I would just say, you
know that this is a sign. I would say that this is this is shows how difficult it is two to figure out what to do. You know, if this is the best conclusion you can come up with, then it tells me that it's very difficult. It would be very difficult for the United States to defend Taiwan without it becoming as dangerous or more dangerous than the cub
missile crisis. You know, well, yeah, more dangerous because now you're talking about using these things I mean literally in this article to break down. If you if you look at the table of contents on it, right, you know, scenarios for deliberate nuclear use, okay, after you give the strategic context and the introduction, scenarios for Chinese nuclear first use, okay, scenarios for US limited nuclear first use, scenarios for an extended nuclear exchange.
I mean, you know, a strategic policy and operational considerations to the United States, right, objectives of US response, including potential nuclear use. It seems to me like somebody here, you know, my sensing a theme. Somebody really badly wants to go from the mad policy right, the mutually destroyed destructive deterrent policy too. Well, let's see if we can use these things a little bit and you know, cause a post nuclear strategy to emerge.
What in the world is going on with the Atlanta Council, I just I mean, where does this come from? Wow? And then they have you know, recommendations and all that at the end, and it's just to me, it's like all of these different main mainland targets for US nuclear use. I mean, man, okay, so how does anyone imagine a scenario like
this with anything beginning that's not going to cause escalation. See, that's the other problem is when you engage in, whether it's conventional warfare or any of this strategic stuff or use of these different weapons or whatever, escalation is a almost a certainty, and b is something that must be considered at all times because the moment you engage in this. This is why it's always dangerous to even engage in the rhetoric, because the rhetoric can often lead to real world
things getting lit off accidentally. Even this just seems like an unnecessary provocation and idea about how to deal with something that clearly the US doesn't have the diplomatic or you know, or other spheres of influence in order to push off of it. Seems like, you know, we've lost on all these other fronts here. We're definitely behind them militarily, We're behind the Chinese regarding being able
to deal with this. Let me ask you something, Mike, Why in the world would Taiwan be this important that we would risk entering a post nuclear use age right where these things are being used. Why would we even risk changing the world condition here? Because it's not thought of commonly that it's something that would be even considered. You know, remember when people are talking about
Russia and what's going on there and the use of battlefield nukes. Everybody goes, WHOA, we don't want to get that started, because that can lead to other things. Even if you have these small strategic things that are being utilized right, you don't know how it could grow out of control really fast in real time. And meanwhile, the Atlantic Council is basically proposing the idea that well, let's let's talk about what happens if we do start using this.
I mean, does this represent a I don't know, a new kind of philosophy that's emerging from these things tanks? Now? I mean, does this represent something larger? Or is this? I mean, because this is just crazy to me. I can't see how this would be even remotely palatable to anybody to consider this. It seems like this is exactly the kind of stuff you need to avoid unless you know, look, if you want to try and do damage control because it's a certainty that you're going to engage in
this, that seems to be one thing. But I mean, this is just the craziest position I've ever heard of. Mike, what are your thoughts on this? Well? This are I mean, the arguments they make in this article at the beginning is before getting this nuclear war stuff, their nuclear weapons stuff is why why is Taiwan so important? So in their argument, I'm just gonna list what they say to you. I'm not saying I'm just gonna list it then comment on it. But that's a huge that's a huge
part of the stories. First of all, why in the hell would we even be considering something like this. It means that there must be something of great significance well to be considering something that could have such drastic consequences. What is their reasoning that this is so important? Why is this so important that basically it's on a page. But basically they're just they're re They're creating a domino theory argument. They say, if Taiwan, if China gets control of
Taiwan, it would be afford operating base. They could attack Japan, they could take a couple of disputed islands that they have over Japan. Quote. A key goal of US foreign and national security politicians and civil War two has been to prevent any hostile power from dominating key regions of the world. A Chinese conquest to Taiwan, when we move China closer to dominating the Western Pacific, a Chinese conquest that Taiwan would call into question the foundations of the rules
based international order. US in action would be seen as a sign of decreased US will and capability to defend other countries. So the argument here is that it's the inaction that we wouldn't want to have come out of this, like in other words, I mean, it's the same crap that they said about Vietnam. Well, yeah, and Domino theory, for God's sake, Now we're back to that right where Oh, if that happens, then all these other places might fall to it as well, and then we'll be faced with
what a larger unified Asian communist threat. Basically that that that's what the big worry is, and we're gonna go nuclear about it. That that to me is crazy. And even if China took Taiwan, yeah, they mean they're gonna They're not gonna invade Japan. And you look, other countries around China,
including Russia you know, historically are not their friends. You know, a Japan, Vietnam, UH, Korea, India, uh, go on and on, you know, all their surrounding larger country you know, major countries are not just gonna like become their puppets or just get invaded or something. Well, yeah, and there's the quick question too, is worst case scenario. Let's just say they land with military force starting now and absolutely a
certain complete control over the eye. What really changes in the in the world? Exactly? Not much. Well, I mean the same thing that changed when China took control of Hong Kong. What changed? I don't know. England didn't collapse, right, I mean, you know things will change on Taiwan. I'm not saying I want it to happen. I'm not advocating for it or anything of that sort. I just I just read these things and I'm just like, well, can we do? You know, I throw
up my hands, what can we do? So? What about the theories of victory? That that's the title of the Brookings Institute study and Brookings you know, okay, so let me let me load that up. It's well right, and and and again. Look, I'll look at the RAM study over here, right, I mean the Rand Study, not Brookings Institute Rand Study. Yeah, yeah, good. If you don't have it loaded up, I mean I can read you want me to read from that I got
it. I got it. So the people should know the Rand Institute is closely connected to to the Pentagon. Okay, It's nonprofit based in California. Its founder, one of its founders was General Curtis LeMay. Is funded by the Air Force and companies like Douglas Aircraft. You know, it gets private donations too. It's not it's a nonprofit, but you know it's it's closely connected. More I would say it's even more connected. I mean, what
difference does it make? But more more connected, uh, and important than this Atlantic Council thing. So we don't have access to the obviously we need and you in any everyone listening, we don't have access to the actual Pentagon war plans for these different scenarios that are created by the Joint Staff that works under the Joint chiefs of Staff. However, sometimes these people, these think tanks do, or at least they are able to talk to the people involved
in this article inside of it. I read the whole thing yesterday. It's forty three pages. But inside of it it states that the Joint Staff plans do not involve any first use of nuclear weapons. Okay, thank god, I just want to state that flat out after this Atlantic Council madness. Look,
you're talking about think tanks versus what our government's actually doing. And one would think this would have been something more typical of what might have come out of the think tanks when like guys like John Bolton were involved, because he was a guy who was very much focused on this. There's that former Trump administration advisor I was trying to think of earlier, right, John Bolton, who very much was focused on China and constantly telling us that we're ignoring this,
and this is the this is really the larger question. Forget about all these other things that are emerging. This is ultimately the existential threat to the United States, Right is China, China, China, China, you know. And that's that was. It seems like I thought we were past this. But the weirdness of you know this, let's see if we can engage with nuclear use and all these other things. I mean, how far is too far? And again you make it very clear this has nothing to do
with you know, our government policy at the moment. This is these think tanks that usually do have some influence though, kicking these ideas around. Well,
this was this report when I read it this the rand study. Yeah, this one is really you know, the point of bring up the other one is just to highlight how this issue, you know, is you difficult to deal with in kind of like I mean, it's a lot of craziness, you know, I don't know, I mean, what, well, a lot of hyperbole is going to come out of this, because it makes people very nervous when you know, an adversarial nation has outpaced us militarily regarding
the population, seemingly out maneuvers to us in a lot of different way. But clearly we're back to the discussion of you know, is it our responsibility to defend? Like why is it even our problem? What's going on with Taiwan? You know, why is that something that we need to be involved in and even considering such madness like you know, first use of nuclear weapons? Or gee, how do we respond? How do we deal with the prolonged nuclear exchange? I'm saying, I'm thinking we don't, you know,
we don't. How about avoid it? How about this is the thing I thought we were supposed to be avoiding. But anyway, what is what is the major difference between the rantic good? The point of this this study forty three pages. It's really advocating a course of action. Okay, Yeah, I can imagine that this study is being presented to all the Senators and congressmen and saying this is the plan, this is why we're funding all these programs,
and this is the best course of action we got. Well, here's the justification for our need for the National Defense Authorization for the next few years, because we need to catch up to China, et cetera. So this is kind of ye. So it's not talking about we've got to catch up. It's posing a plan to win. Okay. The title is US Military
Theories of Victory for War with the People's Republic of China. And what it does, I mean, it's a long like logic exercise basically, and it says there's one, two, three, four, five, five ways, and it's Taiwan is the main you know, arena of conflict, right or issue. It just assumes it's going to be a Taiwan that a war would be fought over, and there's five ways to fight a war against China,
and it breaks them down and says what are their limitations? Number one it labels brute force, and that would be total attack on China to destroy their capability launch war limitations quote implausible when fighting a nuclear arm great power. All right, forget that one. Okay. The next idea denial convinced China that it cannot successfully take Taiwan by destroying the capabilities supporting an amphibious invasion. Limitations
requires sufficient power to blunt an invasion and still creates escalation risks. Okay, and as a stated, it's dicey whether we would be able to defeat unlikely that we would be able to defeat them at this moment or next month, next devaluing which they assert. I mean, I don't really know how you would actually do this, that you'd make Taiwan h less beneficial by destroying its
infrastructure in semicheductor industry. I don't know. You know, this says limitations impractical, you know, I guess nuking them or whatever is put that in there. It's impractical. Yeah, fair enough. I mean, is it practical to say, turn around and intentionally destroyed the Taiwanese economy completely in order to make it a less attractive target? I mean, sorry, I think
we're going back into crazy land again here. Yeah, but go ahead, Yeah, next brinksmanship convinced China that the future costs of fighting for Taiwan may become intolerable by threatening escalations such as nuclear use, so escalation or threats of
escalation. And if that benksmanship limitation undesirable given China's ability to retaliate in kind, but and the limited stakes at half the United States, and frankly, I've always thought this that in the end, if we tried nuclear braakesmanship of China, we would fold, just as the Soviet Union folded when it came to the Cuban missile crisis. Because how many Americans, you know, it's not as important to us well in the world. Now, exactly, how
in the world are you going to justify this? This is what the question is, right, How could you possibly justify any escalation? What would And ultimately, I'm sorry, but this is the ultimate question. What does the United States gain? Let's just say, you know, any any of these operations are successful, we successfully discourage the Chinese from landing and invasion force,
Taiwanese independence gets asserted. Okay, great, we might have a greatful ally for a minute, But other than that, what do we get out of this? Honestly, I mean, what is the ultimate goal, what is the big gain? That would be gambling all these assets on and taking this studies asking those questions. It's just doesn't ask those How do we win? How do we win? Okay? High? So we're just how to the study, you know, and the other one too, by the way,
is how do we win? Regardless of the condition, how do we win? How do we win? In the in the final military strategy is what they call cost and position convinced China the costs are too high by military measures such as Blockader's tragic air chat attacks against China. Problem retaliate retaliate retaliation risk is high, yeah, very high, and unlikely to generate pressure quickly enough to stop it, as we learned in Vietnam. I'm saying that as we
learn in Vietnam. But but in the end, the this study says that the only two options that have the possibility of working are this last one, which they which the study then rejects in favor of the denial strategy. In what the denial strategy involves is, first of all, you want to do everything you can to keep this a limited war, not going nuclear. So what you do is you don't attack mainly in China. You don't make this a war of unlimited objectives, you know, like in World War two unconditional
defeat of the Nazis Japanese. Now what you do is you say we are going to defend Taiwan from an amphibious invasion, and you keep the focus of the conflict on stopping the the amphibious invasion seeking the boats or if it's airplanes lifting people in since paratroopers or whatnot. You only attack the forces involved in invading Taiwan. And that way you can limit keep the conflict contained. Uh
just to that and uh so that's what the study advocates. And it says that we could win that conflict, and it's the only possibility of winning is that is doing it that way. You know, we can't win. No one can win a nuclear you know, strike both sides striking each other's continents. So just keep it to a naval battle. Look, somebody in my chat room points, you know, says that you know we're not using our common sense here, that you know that there is an importance in Taiwan because
of their their capacity. Let me see, because of the large advanced dedicated semiconductor boundaries. Okay, yeah, but is that worth this kind of escalation is my question? I mean, ultimately cost benefit analysis, does it make sense? Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to uh, you know, go about this another way so as not to lose access? Or is somebody thinking that it's too great of a strategic choke point for China, you know,
to be able to deny the West access to something like that. And if that's the case, that is a huge vulnerability that that that that needs be dealt with immediately another way, and it's not militarily, you know, the the superconductor situation or even these issues that came up over chips, right, remember the Chips Act and all that stuff regarding well how come we're getting all our chips from China, you know, and this and that. Yeah,
that that's a huge vulnerability. I get it, But I don't see how that equates, you know, or or that justifies I should say, uh, the type of briachmanship you're talking about, or the use of weapons or or this kind of military involvement which lends itself immediately to further escalation. Well outside of Taiwan. I'm just thinking again, cost benefit analysis, Uh, you got a major problem here. Uh, it doesn't make sense to me, none of this does. But but continue, Mike, I'm sorry.
I just I saw that in the chat and want to point it out. Okay, So I'm trying to find a sentence buried in this whole thing that it's I'm not gonna be able to find it. Well here it is, well, ultimately, you know, okay, because it's since like I said, this is a very you know, forty three pages and all this logical arguments, and it's all designed to build its advocating for that position right
a naval battle. Now, I want to say I've heard I met once Colonel Larry Wilkerson, who was calling Palace chief of staff when he worked in
the State Department. It talked for like an hour after he spoke somewhere, and I've seen him on YouTube a lot in interviews and multiple times again we don't have access to this information, so but multiple times I've seen him state that the Pentagon has war gained this scenario and that what ends up happening is one side ships the naval forces get wiped out, and then it goes nuclear. So this article doesn't say anything. I mean, he says that,
however, this article has this line in it after pushing this option. Yeah, it may ultimately be. It's basically says, we only have two things we can do. We can declare as the other article advocated, actually that okay, Taiwan is something we're going to go to nuclear war over and just flat out to Claire like we did with NATO in in Western Europe. Right, Uh, just flat out to Claire that knowing that it it escalates the whole situation. That's one one option. The other option is the naval battle,
okay, and we may lose the naval battle. And know this, this thing, you know, has the title saying this is how we win. It's a theory of victory, and it's advocating for this naval battle scenario. But then it has this two sentences and and keep in mind that this Larry Wilkerson has claimed that when they wore game it it leads to nuclear war, just the naval battle because one side gets sunk. You know what happens when the US A thousand American sailors are are killed. What does the president
then do? Does he go nu cure or is he going to resign? You know what what's he going to do? So in the end, it's because we don't want to make nuclear commitment and say, this is West Germany. This is the quote. It may ultimately be in the US interest to accept a greater risk of a limited defeat over Taiwan, then to cultivate a much greater risk of nuclear escalation. These are decisions that US political leadership, not Department of Defense would make. Well, No, the d o D.
The d D has just charged with win win win. You don't go to the god and say, strategically, we need you to lose, but don't lose too big. I mean, that makes no sense. So well I read that. What I see is this is up. This is the policy right here. All right, We're gonna have this naval battle to defend Taiwan. We're gonna we have this great military industrial complex for trying to catch
up the ship construction UH to fight this possible battle. And in the end we may lose that battle and they admit that, and then the President's gonna have decide if we're gonna have nuclear warnit. Mike, it just seems all crazy all the way through to me. I don't you know, I don't get it. It's I don't again, I still stand by I don't see how this is worth it. Maybe it's just me, I I don't see the cost benefit analysis here panning out that it would be worth this kind of
escalation, this kind of risk. Uh, you know, in the in a worldwide sense, it's well to escape this. I mean, maybe you know, maybe maybe you know, we don't know what the real odds are that China's even gonna invade Taiwan. Maybe this is just never gonna happen anyway. Well, there's option three, as we might be, you know, gaming out discussing something that is never going to happen anyway. But they do
wish to assert, you know, dominance over that particular island. They definitely assert ownership over it, and do not like it, and and definitely react really badly when anybody makes a suggestion that Taiwan could be independent, could be separate from being anything other than another asset under the Chinese government's control. I
mean, it's it's a rough spot, and this all sounds crazy. So look, Mike, we've been talking for almost an hour, so I mean, I'd love for you to kind of just tell people what to take away
from this, What is the thing to take away? Please, Gus, I don't know what the you know, I don't know what the you'd hope that there's people in the government trying to figure out scenarios to void What are alternative courses of action that involve diplomacy or you know something, Various pressure points, various points of influence, various possibilities could be played out here before ever
bothering to introduce a military element directly into the situation. Uh there's tons of possibilities before this, right to even consider this further on down the line, the idea of use of it, the idea of let's yeah, sure, we'll just have a naval conflict. I'm sure it'll just stay on the high seas. Uh No, this is craziness, Mike. And what do you
think why is it that this is coming out now? Why do you think this is a point of discussion now as opposed to you know, like I said, the majority of what the media's treating us to is all sorts of considerations. Yes, indeed, be ready and be afraid of World War three. But the scenarios right now and the mainstream media have nothing to do with China except that they might come in on the side of Russia, they would be much more closely allied to Russia. Right, the whole brick situation.
All of these things are worthy of consideration. But to me, it's crazy to consider, you know, that type of escalation or direct conflict what as a first line of defense as opposed to a last line of defense here to not allow the you know what, another country to assert its dominance over Taiwan if you consider that it is separate indeed or not? I mean, really, Mike, ultimately, what should we take away from all this? Well,
just hope it doesn't happen. Yeah, no, absolutely. Look I never ever sit here and and wish for prey, for spoil for conflict. Absolutely not. That's not my style at all. And uh, I know it's not something anybody should be really wanting to see, But I mean, ultimately it is it also inevitable? You know? That's the thing I didn't catch in these articles, by the way, and these studies is if they felt that, you know, I saw what was it in the uh in
the Atlantic Council one. They seem to give us an idea that, you know, a conflict is inevitable, right, Uh, we're gonna have to choose what type of conflict, And they indeed want to advocate the idea that well, you know, since eventually we're going to get the nuclear weapons anyway, Uh, there's a way to do that and not lose all the way at least, which to me is madness. The moment you start considering use of stuff like that, to me, you definitely lost some serious perspective.
But yeah, the thing about the new nuclear weapons is you have to create these crazy scenarios to imagine a way to be able to use them. So, for example, in the Ukraine Russia conflict, there's a Russian think tank that put out an article last year advocating for the use of a tactical nuclear
weapon against Ukraine. And their argument was that in this article, and you know that there's gonna be a there's risk of a nuclear a growing risk that the United States is going to have some sort of war somewhere in the world of Taiwan and possibly a place with another power and use nuclear weapons. So if we use a tactical nuclear weapon, now how the Russians in Ukraine, it would be help us in that war and also remind the world how terrible
these weapons are, so it's less likely they'll be used again. It's less likely that the United States will get into this war that claim the world's heading for. I mean, it's just you know, fantastic nonsense. Yeah, well exactly. And to me, you know, look, I don't think it's inevitable. I don't think it's necessary. And again I don't think the cost benefit analysis bears out it as any sort of necessity. So you know,
what is it that we're looking at here? To me, it's all crazy all the time, Mike, And no matter how you slice it, I think to spoil for a larger conflict, to spoil for escalation without you know, an absolute, you know, inevitable requirement for it. If it was unavoidable completely, then that's one thing. But to actually ask for it or to initiate it, as you know, some of these think tanks are talking about. Now, you know, how do we initiate the kind of
war we can win? Is pretty much the overall theme. I don't know how it is you believe that you can win in a nuclear exchange of any significance whatsoever, And the moment that that's introduced, that crosses the line that we have not crossed now, you know, since World War Two, so you know who wants to be party to that. I don't get it to me. It just sounds like the bad idea that it'll keep on giving and getting worse if we go in any of these proposed directions according to the think
tanks. I don't think the think tanks are thinking Mike, basically, but you out there, you could be thinking be in the no go to Wallstreet, Window dot com. That is Mike's main hub and all that good stuff. And again he's the author of a lot of great books. But the three I would point to, or well, the two I would point to immediately is why the Vietnam War and the War State, and absolutely I endorse those. But he's also written about the history of Danville, Virginia, and
he's got books about financial stuff and all that out there. Mike's keen ability to turn complex issues into something that could be easily understood is really his greatest skill and strength as an author and as somebody who does this kind of analysis. What's interesting here, Mike, is that you have something very complex here that I'm not saying that you failed at all, but it's very difficult to simplify this kind of crazy that's coming out of Rand Corporation in the Atlanta Council
here. It's difficult to take all those nuances, crush it down and have it make any sort of sense. These ideas of escalation of nuclear involvement, of really again crossing a line that has not been crossed in a very long time on the global stage. So what, you know, what is your sort of wrap it up or final thoughts on all this? I mean, it's like doctor Strange glove stuff. It's the Bob. I mean, that's what it's like, you know, That's that's what the world of these think
tanks is. Man, oh man, gentlemen, no fighting in here. This is a war room, all right. Well, anyway, again, thanks Mike Swanson for joining us here tonight on the Ocelli Effect here on a Thursday, considering China and the crazy ideas that are growing in the think tanks. I don't know what else that titled this show. Maybe I'll get to a better one when I write it up. But man, Mike, thanks for thanks for giving me a little something to worry about, because if people
are thinking this way, I mean, they've lost their minds. I don't know what else to say. This to me just seems crazy. I don't care who's at the chairman, I don't care who's in charge. I don't care how intelligent this is supposed to be. This to me seems like just madness that keeps on giving. But anyway, Wall Street Window dot Com is Mike say again The War State and Why the Vietnam War, the two books I highly recommend Mike Swanson on the o'elli effect and Uh, We're all done
here. No matter who you are, where you are, when you are, remember I'm o Chili dot com, wall Stream Window Dott Gold similar the stock market, wall Stream Window Dott. Perhaps you're invested deeply, Perhaps you're not in deep enough. Maybe you're thinking about getting started Wall Street windows on condos on com. Michael Swanson, the brilliant author of the War State, understood these trends professionally for many years, and now he gives you the benefit
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