Ochelli Effect 9-3-2025 Mandela Mandala Effect Affect Part 2

studied this, and I studied that. When it comes to like say the jfk assassination, people go, I want to know about this with absolute certainty, And I go, well, look, you got to consider a bunch of things. Nobody likes that answer because wherever it's going to go. If I say it's about you know, different techniques, different spatter, you know, different scientific tests have been conducted, and this is what

was found. And in some ways we take these things collectively together and we can sort of begin to draw a good possibility about something that happened. People don't want to hear all that. They just don't. They want you to say, nope, I know this because of this done.

They want the simplest answer. I've always thought it was because again it was the easiest thing to remember, so they could parrot it and appear as though they had knowledge, and I think that that is a factor here too, which maybe Dunning and Kruger didn't necessarily include in their study, although I'd have to go back over it. I know I read it in the late nineties or the early two thousands. I know I read it along with my studies on eyewitness accounts and the accuracy and inaccuracy of

those things. I know I did that, and I know I don't recall you know, the whole Well, it makes it carry along, like why does this happen? The why of the effect is that someone who doesn't have an understanding and places their true trust in that confident individual. It's more attractive, yes, but it's also easier for them to adapt it into their own presentations and then prop up their own false sense of expertise when they have even less knowledge than the individual. See, that's the thing.

There's the echo of the Dunning Kruger effect where indeed, okay, there's that manager they were just talking about who believes that they're very confident and believes that they perform, you know, at a way higher rate than they could possibly perform collectively. They believe in their own bs. But what that does is it creates a residual effect among individuals who are trusting or who have, through their own confirmation bias, placed

an amount of trust in that individual. Now with less information, they continue with even more confidence because they knew the expert who wasn't an expert. So, in other words, this has a resonance that continues to ripple, much like a pebble out a pond, where you know, one pebble breaks the surface of the pond, but creates many ripples, and those many ripples go out and expand all the way to the shores of the pond sometimes, and that is

the echo of the Dunning Kruger effect. And I don't remember if they studied that as part of their discussion in the article that was published and was peer reviewed and was received in a very strange way, because again the supposed experts who had maybe risen to levels of power and prestige in their fields were not necessarily the good experts. I mean, it kind of explains how an incompetent like doctor Phil is able to go out there

give this. I'll tell you what the problem is. You just you don't understand this, and you're just being wrong, you know it explains how that dynamic works, how somebody that's never read the book can sell you the book that you'll never read too, and then both of you will claim that you have knowledge of the subject studied

in the book. It is the continuing ripple effect. Anyway, I always find this fascinating, but I don't know if they actually tried to study the continuation of that particular set of actions when it comes to, like I said, the management, the head of the leader of the political party, the the leader of the church, et cetera. All these people that don't even have the competence in the field that they think they're supposed to have, they present themselves

as having. But then the after effect of having even less knowledgeable individuals ca carry it on as if it's an expert's opinion. It becomes an exponential destruction of competent information, of reliable or ethical presentations, and continues to echo on. And I think that's how we ended up with an alternative media that is now almost entirely opinion based, and

it almost looks like expertise. When one idiot goes about the document writer, I know, I know, I think we know who I'm mocking there, And it's not Machiavelli sounds similar, though, there you go, new conspiracy theory. There is something to this. The Mandala affect and the Mandela effect seemingly very very similar things, and entirely they do almost for a good reason. So I don't know where this next part is going

to go. I don't recall, but I gotta tell you this to me is one of the keys digital age.

between novice and expert opinions. As Neil deGrasse Tyson puts it, one of the great challenges in this world is knowing enough about a subject to think you're right, but not enough about the subject to know you're wrong.

do is because of this exact problem. He applies this scientific study of ideas that he has in certain fields to things that it does not necessarily comport with, and then with absolute certainty shuts down people with very simple answers in debates because he has now overestimated his ability. See, there's a certain point at which intelligence and expertise does

get to an arrogance. And again it is more about the interruption of continuous education, a need to continuously educate oneself and to dispossess yourself of maybe poorly received knowledge, like knowledge that was not entirely ethical when you took it in. It wasn't correct when you took it in, and you based a lot of things on it. You must go back and re challenge some of that stuff.

Now and then Neil de grasse Tyson does not. He is highly intelligent and in some cases is intelligent enough to know that he is not an expert on everything, and yet somehow presents himself in that way. So he's gone over the hump to understand that he is intelligent enough, gotten to the nuances, and now broken his own paradigm

by refusing to take in new or different information. He shuts down arguments with very effective debate techniques and sadly look as flaud as I'm pointing out that he is personally, it's irrelevant. He is part of a problem where yes, indeed they're of a more advanced intelligence than the average, But the problem becomes when they recognize that and now do not have the ability to take in anymore because they have overestimated the worth of the knowledge they've gained.

In other words, he's more intelligent than the average person, that's an absolute certainty, but he's now lost his ability to continue to utilize that intelligence properly because it's really not a high bar to jump over the majority of people around us. I mean, I got to say that eight out of ten people I meet are at best

at best benignly, idiotic and stupid. They spout off about things that they know nothing about continuously, and occasionally have a skill set where they are experienced enough that they could pass along relevant information to those that are less informed than themselves, and they do, But then they step outside of their own expertise and they do invade other

areas with that over confidence. See in other words, they have a level of expertise in a particular area, and that's all great and everything, but that's all they've got. They don't have the rest, and people turn to them from many many other things. You know, a guy who can build you a house is not necessarily the guy

who can tell you how to live your life. He may be the most intelligent for building a house that is not going to fall down on you for the next forty fifty years, but he doesn't necessarily know how to have a relationship. And people just correlate things like this together as if they are the same. They are not.

And that's the thing. Neilda grass Tyson might understand physics for the most part, but when he makes blanket, you know, assertions about like vaccinations and things like that, he's only parroting what he thinks is expertise from others without the

ability to test their expertise. Hopefully, over the years people have listened to me, and I know very few of you will remain from some years ago, but those of you who have stuck around for many years have learned that I have been careful enough to challenge the expertise of many people competently without necessarily debating them being rude, having you know, name calling contests and things like that.

I've done it with a great deal of nuance, and sometimes they don't even realize that they've been challenged or undermined. And I presented their work, and I presented there their points of view and allowed them to present them without doing the gotcha and without doing the well I did this, and I debated, and I proved wrong, and I remer and I hammered, you know, much like the extremely nuanced debate that goes on, or that really doesn't go on

most of the time, but that could go on. Regarding the right to life situation and how there is an inconsistency in the moral code, the scientific benchmarks, and even the religiosity of people's positions on this, an atheist has no reason to support pro life or pro choice based on their atheism, but they do. A Christian has no reason to support it if they're integrating science into their discussion.

And there are scientific contradictions here among people's points of view, where you know, they've forgotten that murdering is different than killing. They've forgotten that it is perfectly acceptable to have the person's next of kin decide to shut down their life support system and put them to death because there's no

brain function. And you know what, as you're listening to me say this, you're placing what I'm saying into your own confirmation bias, and you're assuming that I'm making statements about this in one direction or another. That's the fascinating thing, and that's what I've tried to do on my show. Most times. Occasionally I've gotten angry because somebody's touched a nerve, and hey, things happen over the course of four or

five thousand hours of discussion. But for the most part, I've been about the exploration of the best information I could get my hands on, the most different thought, the most rare thought processes, and scientific explorations and philosophical divides. I have tried to go for rarity and nuance, and at the end of the day, that's probably why I'm getting less and less successful, because the more nuanced I

add to the equation, the less attractive it is to anyone. Anyway, back to the point that's being made in this video and for the whole of this discussion, which by the way, whether you realize it or not, multiple points are being made to you at once here and I I hope that you recognize it, and I hope that you find something useful out of this, because at the end of the day, every single one of my podcasts I try to present something that is useful on multiple levels that

one could adapt and adopt into their own education one way or another, to expand their base of knowledge, to

continue their exploration. That's what this has been about. And even if it ends very very soon, even if my life ends very very soon, I hope that some of you have gained those nuggets one way or another, have picked up and have had a sum a well not a sum, have had a at the end of the day, an overall gain here, you know, in the cost benefit analysis, I hope that the cost of you spending your time with me are supporting me or participating with me one way or another has been a net gain for you

in your ability to think about things, in your ability to explore them, in your base of knowledge, and in some cases in other ways that I don't even care to describe, because I'm hoping that one day somebody will decode a great many things that I placed in here for people to discover if they decide to revisit the

information and the audio pieces that I have released over time. Anyway, back to Philosophy Coded and their YouTube channel and their excellent explanation at least part of their excellent explanation on the Dunning Kruger effect.

confidence are highly valued. Children are raised to believe in themselves and their potential, creating fertile ground for overestimation of abilities. The American ethos of individual achievement and potential may inadvertently amplify the Dunning Kruger effect by encouraging positive self assessment regardless of objective performance.

the Western world now it's a bad place. Oh, he's smashing America. No, none of that. I'm trying to tell you that it takes something like this nuanced Dunning Kruger effect and a few other things that I consider to be blights upon our intellectual society. One way or another,

it amplifies them, it makes them worse. The idea of self worth and self determination being the supremacy of all tricks for continuing to measure the value of the individual or the groups of individuals or the actions of individuals. This is something that is entirely amplified disproportionately in the English speaking Western world. Absolutely, and I think that's relevant to remember anyway, Enough out of me, I'm sorry I keep having to interrupt, but I think these are important

points to stress and important additions, plus a couple of contradictions. Again, I don't like Neil deGrasse Tyson being used as any example of someone who has intellectual efficacy. Although he is intellectually again, superior to the majority of people you will encounter, it doesn't mean that he is not exactly nailed by some of these issues of confirmation bias, his self evaluation,

distortion and disillusion. Or maybe that would be illusion. I guess it's the illusion of self worth and the dissolusion of proper evaluation. Either way, the point is that it is amplified, and has been amplified even more and with a narrower spectrum than ever before, based on again, you know, like they brought up earlier, the democracy of ideas, the ability for the amplification of the very short ideas which are not nuanced, are not informed, can be easily amplified.

I mean, think about the millions and millions of followers

slash readers people have on social media platforms. Those things are directly relatable to financial gain, They're directly related to by the economy of attention, and they're definitely shown to be the primary drivers for a lot of why somebody has taken seriously, even the opposition that you can't stand, the opposition that gets out there and gets the message that you think is wrong out there, the you know, the the libtard, you know what, influencers out there who

are talking about stupid things and aggravates you even more when they have millions upon millions of followers. It's not just about jealousy or being a hater. It's about that amplification and how easy it is to gain a foothold without actually having any substance that would merit that amount of influence. Like you would think the most intelligent and most substantive people who present the best or most accessible information, those individuals would be the most rewarded in our society.

But look it over again, never are they the most rewarded. Never are they the most heard, Never are they the most followed. Never are they the biggest names or recognized sometimes until after they're dead. Even if they are recognized, then they still never have the marketability, you know. I mean he puts it as entertainment over whatever in this thing. But the truth is it is amplified even more in

American and indeed Western culture. But I think American culture sits upon the type the tip top of the pyramid when it comes to this part of the paradigm where the amplification of this paradigm is extreme and of the most narrow and directed energy that it could possibly be in especially modern America. It's not just due to social media, but it is. You know, when you have a cold, it's not just because you're sneezing. It is one of

the symptoms. It is one of the enablers, just like the TV used to be an enabler, but it could have been something else. This ability to communicate ideas instantaneously into wide audiences could be a tool for many things. But what it is is an extremely deficient, anemic information stream that is easily consumed. You know, why can you

eat six bags of potato chips nowadays? Because there's nothing to them and you can continuously consume them, and for the paradigms where consumer rates and volumes are of the utmost paramount important, it'll be rewarded. And you can't say that in the USA and in Western civilization in general. You can be rewarded just for those empty calories that you feed into people's brains. Junk food for the mind is extremely profitable, not just because people are producing crap,

but because people are demanding crap. On the other end, you know, why are there so many terrible TV shows that continue on and on because there's an audience for them, And both things are responsible. The people that want to do the shortcuts do it as cheaply as you know, Like why did reality TV get produced with all this garbage and you know, untalented people onto two reasons. One, on the one end, it was easier, cheaper, and faster

produced than anything else. And on the other end, there was a receptive audience that would eat it up no matter how crappy it was. I mean, we went from let's tell your whole story over the course of an hour, the clips of people arguing over getting their cars toad and that's all part of the reality TV paradigm. And it was all junk food to educate people about virtually nothing and keep them engaged, and they play these things on you know what used to be called the learning channel,

the education channels. A lot of reality TV ended up there. And if you don't believe me, just remember how Honey Booboo was on the learning channel. It did teach you something if you took time to learn it, but most people didn't. They just wanted to watch the fat little girl say skitties and talk about how she was sassy child. Yeah, that was the thing in America. I mean, you know that, Jerry Springer, a whole bunch of lowest common denominator things.

It shouldn't be a surprise that that's what's rewarded, and it shouldn't be a surprise that that's what makes it real far when that's what people want again, the simple answer, the simple thing to look down on, the simple thing to feel superior even though you are superior over very little. See that's the problem with the hubris of Anil Degrass, Tyson or some of the other partial experts in their fields.

Once they recognize that, they start to believe their expertise extends beyond what it is they have taken the time to gain it in and you can't blame them because in general, most times they will do what sound a lot better and seem a lot better and indeed be a lot better educated. Then you know the majority of those that they will encounter and that will listen to them.

But here's the thing to consider. The kid who took a first aid class in the fourth grade has a lot more men knowledge than a whole lot of people, and it's real fresh in their memory. But they may indeed be more informed than the nurse who slept walk through and figured out how to take tests very well and didn't retain any of their knowledge. You're confronted by somebody with a master's degree in nursing and a fourth grade student with first aid training, and you may require

treatment for a broken arm. The kid from fourth grade there is going to do better, But it doesn't mean that they can also figure out the complexity of your cancer. You have to look at this from various angles. Although they might have a clue about how to even treat you know your symptoms. When it comes to the flu or pneumonia, they're not going to help you get it out of your system. And there's also a lot of D and C students that are doctors, nurse et cetera,

et cetera, pharmacists. You know, don't forget. Not everybody was an A student. And most of those D and C students don't feel as though they failed because they weren't

knowledgeable enough. They're confident. Yeah, so you know, just think about how this plays out when it comes to areas where you expect demand and require expertise beyond your own in some cases, and in some cases you'll find that you may have more than they do just because yeah, you did read something recently and they haven't read anything in a long time. Will not look for references, will not begin to explore anything that might have been discovered

at any point in time. There are certain universal truths that remain, but one size fits all on human beings is always a rather difficult paradigm to adopt. Anyway, I present that for your consideration. But a little more on this from the Dunning Kruger effect again from philosophy coded, and then we'll be done for the night. And I'm sure I lost ninety percent of you along the way, but for those of you who've stuck around, I appreciate you.

I want you to consider going to going to Dallas this year November twenty first, twenty second, twenty third, because that weekend I will be in Dallas, and I'll be the MC for the Lancer Conference, and I'd really love it if I saw some of you. There might be my last presentation ever ever. And yeah, I guarantee you one thing. If you know, actually observe the whole conference,

you will learn something. And there's a lot of people going to be there, you know, Tony Glover, Jeff Meek, Paul Abbott, let's see Janet Banister, the Grodins, Robert and Janet, will Holler and Paul Blow, David Boyland, Larry Hancock. Now

some of these people might present virtually. Carmine Savastano, Will Alex Harris, Johnny Cairns, Jeff Crudell, Walter Hurts, Bill Simpitch, Phil Singer, Brent Holland, Matt Crumpton, Matt Doutitt, Eric Hunley, and that other guy from the Untold American Stories, Right, Robert Tannenbaum. Clyde Lewis is gonna make a virtual presentation, He's promised. Martin Fitzgerald, Chris Gallup, Gavin McMahon. There's a lot of people presenting there, and I don't even have

them all here in front of me. But I'll also be the MC for the event, and I'm going to do a live JFK Myths presentation with a unique twist on it to where I think this will probably be my last public appearance at a JFK conference, and might be my last public appearance at all. You know, I'm trying to remain in a situation where I don't wind up homeless before then. But either way, somebody should be able to get to get get to Georgia here and pick me up and bring me to Texas, because that's

the deal I have in place. Not sure how I'm gonna eat over the weekend, but I am guaranteed to have a room to wash up in and change my clothes, and I'm guaranteed to have water and have a time on the stage in between everybody and trying to help run even a special like a selective seating room for some presentations might be in a segregated room run simultaneously

with the other parts of the conference. So there's gonna be film presentations, there's gonna be partial video presentations, and there's gonna be lots of live speakers, and that's according to if all goes as planned, and I know it won't, but there might be new plans that come into place as we go. Ron Patten and Lewis are supposed to give me a virtual presentation. Now they were gonna go in person, but they changed their mind, and a lot

of people have had to change their mind personally. I'm looking forward to Paul Abbott, who is coming all the way from Australia, and there's other people coming from other parts of the world. But I'm not going to talk about all of it. Andrew Isiler will be part of it, though Gary fanin that Linda Zambanini, I believe I might have just butchered her name. Sorry. You know a lot of people. Russ Baker's supposed to be there. That's gonna be good and uncomfortable. But I'm looking to enjoy this

and I hope some of you will come along. And even if there's a small group of us, maybe if I can hustle up a couple of bucks, we can figure out how to split a pizza from the place owned by the gangster brothers that you know we're tied to Jack Ruby in fact, that we can get enough money together and get a ride over. We can go sit at the same table Ruby used to sit at and that restaurant if you like, uh, and yeah, that

would be a lot of fun. And the food's good there too, I've eaten there before anyway, Pizza's kind of expensive, but isn't everything. So yeah, if you want to join me in Dallas, of course, there's a hotel and all that other information. Let me get that real fast, just so I don't screw it up, because, like I said, twenty first to the twenty third of November in twenty twenty five, obviously, and that's going to be at the Fairmont in Dallas, seventeen seventeen North ackerd Street akaar D

Street in Dallas, Texas. I also know that it's conveniently located near Deey Plaza. There is some public transportation, like this little tram line that runs through the city. But I'm hoping that, you know, we'll be able to catch rides and do collective stuff, maybe even go down there at the Moment of Silence and see what kind of weirdness happens this year at the moment of silence in

Dealey Plaza on the twenty, which is Saturday. But I'll be at it from you know, Thursday, when I'm helping us set up all the way to probably Monday when we pack everything up in Dallas, and then hopefully i'll get home in one piece. But uh, you know, the future of things is uncertain, so I'm hoping that that holds and I can get there and do it all anyway. I hope that some people join me there, but that will be in my mind my last public performance, my

last public appearance anywhere. And I don't know if this show or this network will continue, you know, much into the next year, or even if it'll finish out this year. I'm trying to make it so we at least get to my birthday next year, when well, big bills will come up, and if I don't have the support, I can't paign and that'll be that. So download what you can, save what you can, and learn what you can while you can. Let us continue on with this discussion of

the Dunning Kruger effect. Just a little bit more from Philosophy Coded, and I am crediting them giving you a link everything to their YouTube channel because I think it's brilliant. I mean there's like, you know, little cartoon illustrations and things that go on and the slides and all that during the discussion. I like it. It's very simple, very direct, and well written. And I would say that ninety five percent of the information contained in this thing, according to

my evaluation, is very solid. Maybe ninety to ninety five percent, I would say, which is hella good for YouTube? Man,

Oh my god, what a nightmare. Which, by the way, even recently I found, you know, tribute videos to people who hadn't died on YouTube, stupid things, constant debate videos very popular, and some TikTokers are now beginning to make a living on their very very carefully constructed or reconstructed debate videos, you know, with people that oppose them and making them look stupid, and people are watching it repetitively on TikTok Like mad, I can't be a TikTok guy.

I just can't do it anyway. The landscape is changing, and maybe I'm not changing with it. Perhaps that means my time is almost finished. I guess we'll see. And I don't mind that. By the way, I only ever prayed in my life to have at most my life double my father's time on this earth. He didn't quite make it to twenty six. So if I don't quite make it to fifty four, then God answered a prayer

from me. I have to reevaluate things seriously. Matter of fact, if I dropped dead right now, would probably be yeah, almost right with about double what he got. Let's see, he was two months short, so I would be four months short. You know what. No, no, no, I have to live till like December or January in order to get what I prayed for. And that's what I asked for. I never asked for anything longer than that, and I definitely asked for shorter than that, but I never asked

for any longer lifespan than that, and fair enough. Anyway, that's a discussion perhaps another day, and my foolishness and my confirmation bias when it comes to prayer and what the universe does and doesn't do for different people for different reasons. Anyway, that is a whole mess of ology

of some kind, but not for today. Back to the Dunning Kruger effect and a little real world psychology, which, again in psychological practices and in the alleged science of it, nowadays, I have to say that there is about a thirty percent useful rating on what currently exists in psychological circles, professional, academic, etc. And this is definitely part of the useful portion of it. But again these are my evaluations, and well, your experiences and your life might vary for mine, and for the

most part, I hope it does. I don't wish anyone to ever have experienced my life exactly. I wish that some more people understood it, but I don't wish that

anyone would have ever experienced my life. I literally, even if you're rage listening to me right now, screaming at shut up, already go back to the thing, or just shut the hell up because you're a moron, even if your hate listening to me right now, tell you this, I hope that your life is going better, better than mine, better than it has been, and I hope it continues to improve. Matter of fact, I hope that by the time your life is over, you're worried about going to

heaven because you've already experienced it on earth. I hope that you're happy, healthy, loved, and surrounded by all good things. Even if you hate me. Back to the substance.

that was a commercial. I had a little drop where it was spinning, you know, buffering or whatever, and I was like, oh, oh, but yeah, it turns out it was a minor commercial there. Sorry, I didn't play the commercial for you. But back to the audio itself, and they were just about to talk about Asian culture as opposed to American or Western culture, which, by the way, whether you're looking at the ethos or the pathos, or the criminal world, or political considerations or historical relevance, I

mean cultures. Realistically, you could divide the entirety of the world into two culture sets. In my mind, there is the European Western culture and then there is the Asian African culture, and that's it. Those things cross over with one another. That covers the Middle East all that, right, and their cultural and intellectual realities, their criminal undergrounds, their political constructs, their social contracts, even yeah, you cannot intermingle them.

And even in the criminal world, like as much as you might understand the Western civilization that that includes Russia, by the way, in the Asian camp, you know, it's not about race. It's about you know, location and culture and the reality of the ethos anyway, all of it together, Russia, Asia, Africa and oh Oceania like you know, Australia and all. That's why they're so different. Even though they're supposedly Western,

they're not. Yeah, they're part of that half of the world, and the Americas, Europe and some other places two along the way that weren't included in the other part of the paradigm. This is a clear separation. Even in the criminal world. There is no relation between say, the triads and the Yakuza and the Russian mafia. You know, even though they call it, that does not function like the Italians any ethno related constructs of order, of politics, of

social grouping of society. There is a divide across the world. There's literally two camps, and it's either the Asian African construct of one type or another, and again includes the Middle East and all that. And then there is the West and all the Americas, all of Europe. Pretty much. Yeah,

these two things are separated. And even when you see that there is operation or conflict between peoples, any grouping, whether it's criminal organizations, militaries, geopolitical whatever, if you ever notice, yeah, there's a very serious, striking conflict in operations, understanding and realities that can be divided in just this way, which I see starkly in the you know, alleged criminal underground. The most ancient of the criminal undergrounds that function do

function in this way and function by this divide. It's not a geographical straight line, but it is a cultural barrier. There are literally two sets of cultures that you know, the Europeans, the Americans, the South Americans, the Central Americans. All those peoples and a few other loose pieces can all at some point point or another do business or

battle with one another fairly seamlessly. But when you involved the Asian or the Asiatic and African contingent, you know, it's like Asia, Africa, Oceania area plus Russia, you get something else, and it is a completely different order and almost as if it was two planets combined. In my mind when looking at the criminal organizations, and I mean the ancient secret societies, very much based on different things. There's been attempts to adapt from one to the other,

but they are never seamless. There's always like and one can learn from the other. And of course you know, Egyptian stuff is taken into the Western world as symbolism and symbology, you know, related to secret societies, et cetera. But I'm telling you at the core, no, there is a divide between these two very decidedly different camps or decidedly different groupings of cultures on the planet. So back to the Dunning Kruger thing. Through philosophy coded.

how the effect manifests. In more collectivist societies, where group harmony and interdependence are prioritized, individuals may be more receptive to feedback from others and less likely to maintain inflated self assessments that contradict group consensus. As Confucius wisely noted, real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance. Cultures that embed this philosophy into their educational and social systems may naturally cultivate the metacognitive awareness that helps prevent

the Dunning Kruger effect from taking hold. Everyone wonders if earning an agree.

and Eastern culture has another. And the more collectivist a culture is obviously you're only part of the machine as opposed to an important individual who can build their own machine. There's a difference there in construction and deconstruction, That's how I would put it. But anyway, they're going much much further into this and I like it, hopefully you do too, and well we continue from there.

Confidence becomes problematic when it's drastically misaligned with actual ability. This misalignment can lead to poor decision making, resistance to learning, and interpersonal conflicts. However, appropriate confidence based on realistic self

assessment can be highly adaptive and contribute to success. Research and performance psychology has consistently shown that optimal performance typically requires a moderate level of confidence, enough to motivate action and persistence, but not so much that it prevents recognition of mistakes or areas for improvement. This calibrated confidence represents the sweet spot where self belief aligns with reality. Interestingly, study suggests that slightly overestimating one's abilities by a small

margin may actually be beneficial in some contexts. This mild positive illusion can increase motivation, help overcome initial challenges, and lead to greater persistence in the face of setbacks. The key distinction is between slight overconfidence that drives effort versus the dramatic overestimation characteristic of the Dunning Kruger effect. As psychologist Albert Bandura noted, people who have a sense of self

efficacy bounce back from failures. They approach things in terms of how to handle them, rather than worrying about what can go wrong.

but amplify the wrong noise. I mean, almost anybody who's ever been to enough live performances of music has been present when all of a sudden, nasty feedback and noise comes out of things and it is amplified static or you know, an ungrounded wire or somebody dropping a guitar, or some noise that overwhelms circumstances. And unfortunately, in the case of our own culture in the West, we tend

to have far too many instances of over amplification. With that, I'm gonna let the rest of this presentation roll with a few more pieces from here, and then maybe a couple of other audio pieces I have, and then we're all done with this otelle. The effect, I think I'm gonna have to break it into two parts, So this might be the end of part two, and I didn't

realize that when I started. But what the hell. If you could put up with part one, you put up with part two, And congratulations, you've actually gone and endured something that I estimate very few members of my audience will have done, so I think this will have low downloads and even lower play rates as far as the amount of time somebody stuck with it. I almost wish I was up on YouTube so I could evaluate it myself directly with their metrics. But then again, their metrics

are not trustworthy. See there I go again with my nuances and my questioning of things I'm not supposed to question. Right anyway, Hopefully you've learned something and gained something from all of this, And I really, really, truly do wish that, no matter what your circumstance, you are elevated if you rise from whatever position you find yourself in. I hope that we all do better.

the Dunning Kruger effect is recognizing it in ourselves. By its very nature, the effect blinds us to our own incompetence, creating a stubborn cognitive blind spot that resists self awareness. The first step toward breaking free from this cycle is accepting the universal vulnerability to this bias. No one, regardless of intelligence or education, is immune to overestimating their abilities

in domains where they lack expertise. As intellectual historian Robert Burton writes, the feeling of knowing is not a reliable guide to whether or not you actually know something. Practical strategies for counteracting the effect begin with active solicitation of feedback from others, particularly experts in the relevant domain. External assessment provides the objective perspective that self assessment often lacks. However, this requires genuine openness to criticism and a willingness to

temporarily suspend defensive reactions. Deliberate practice with specific focus on areas of weakness can also help align perceived and actual ability. This practice must include clear, immediate feedback on performance to calibrate self assessment. Without this feedback, practice alone may actually reinforce over confidence rather than correct it. Cultivating metacognitive awareness

thinking about your thinking serves as another powerful antidote. Regular reflection on the limits of your knowledge and consciously considering alternative perspectives helps develop the habit of questioning initial certainty. As Socrates wisely observed, the only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing. Perhaps most challenging, but most effective,

is developing comfort with uncertainty and not knowing. Modern society often rewards quick answers and confident assertions over thoughtful consideration and admission of limitations. Resisting this pressure requires intellectual courage, the willingness to say I don't know or I'm not

sure when appropriate. As writer and philosopher Aldus Huxley noted that men do not learn very much from the lessons of history, is the most important of all the that history has to teach the Similarly, the most important lesson of Don Burger of that letter, the question I certainty a special one feel most confident.