Brought to you by Cotality, formerly CoreLogic. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL
This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.
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Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Wellington is drying out after a night of torrential rain, but the economic data remains heavy. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the March Buyer Classification data , which shows first-home buyers (FHBs) holding a record 27–28% of the market. We also look at the measured return of smaller investors and why movers are currently staying put. With the Q1 CPI inflation data due tomorrow, we analyse the latest monthly price in...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the Q1 2026 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). While cost growth remains relatively controlled at 1% for the quarter, building costs are now 30% higher than they were in March 2020. We discuss why this controlled growth might be short-lived as global supply chain disruptions and transport cost hikes begin to flow through the industry. We also analyse the latest RBNZ mortgage lendi...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, but with inflation forecasts shifting to 4.2% for June, the wait and see period has a very clear focus on rising costs. In this special reactionary episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down today’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Review. While the decision to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% was widely expected, the focus has shifted to the Bank's updated inflation outlook and the i...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! March data confirms a property market upturn was underway - but global second-round inflation risks may have just drawn a line in the sand. In this episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down the March Home Value Index , which saw a second consecutive 0.2% rise in national property values. While momentum was clearly building in Christchurch, Dunedin, and Invercargill through the first quarter, the escalating conflict in the Middle...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode, Kelvin Davidson hosts Gerard Burg, Head of Research in Australia, to discuss the global economic environment, differences and similarities between Australia and New Zealand, and their impacts on the housing markets. They explore recent monetary policy actions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical risks affecting energy and construction sectors. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn , X @NickGoodall_CL or @K...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week’s episode explores the sluggish start to 2026, where a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP result meets a growing sense of sales fatigue. Nick and Kelvin break down why the movers are the key to the next price cycle and how the Reserve Bank might navigate the worst-case scenario of stagflation. Is the New Zealand property market hitting a crescendo of sluggishness? Following a strong end to 2025, the first two months of 2026 have seen sa...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! The Q4 Affordability Report is out , and the data shows a significant shift in the New Zealand housing market. After four years of adjustments, key measures of affordability are returning to long-term averages - but as geopolitical tensions rise, will this recovery be cut short? This week, Nick and Kelvin provide essential property market advice on how to interpret these "normalising" figures and what the latest migration turnaround means ...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! A surprise 0.2% rise in national property values meets a shifting global landscape. Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse how geopolitical tensions could force the Reserve Bank's hand. In this episode, the research desk tackles the unexpected 0.2% rise in the February Home Value Index . While an upturn always starts somewhere, the significance of this month is its broad-based nature - with every main centre, including Auckland, seeing g...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! January’s lending data has landed, and while the crazy peak of December has passed, the underlying numbers reveal a market that is far from quiet. In this week's Monday morning yarn, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into a return to normality for New Zealand lending. After the bank-switching surge of late 2025, January's figures show a billion-dollar increase over the previous year, signaling a resilie...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall interviews Nicole Ferguson , National Director of Loan Market NZ to celebrate International Women's Day 2026. Nicole shares her journey from Australia to New Zealand, her leadership experiences, and insights on gender equity in the property and finance industries. We explore challenges faced by women, the importance of confidence and curiosit...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week, following the release of the Cotality Monthly Chart Pack for February , Nick and Kelvin discuss recent sales data, regional buyer trends, and economic indicators. They explore the impact of timing on market activity, regional disparities, and the influence of economic recovery on housing demand following the RBNZ MPS and OCR hold from last week. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn , X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavids...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.25% . They analyse the economic forecasts, including GDP growth and inflation expectations, and explore the implications for the housing market. The conversation highlights the balance between caution and optimism in the current economic climate, with a focus on upcoming economic indicators and their potential impact on mo...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the current state of the economy, focusing on monetary policy, net migration trends, and lending data. They analyse the implications of the Reserve Bank's upcoming monetary policy statement and the recent Cotality Pain and Gain report for Q4 2025 , which highlights the profitability of property resales. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn , X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoo...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the housing market as reflected in the Cotality Home Value Index for January 2026 . They analyse the mixed signals from the economy, including the recent increase in the unemployment rate and its implications for the housing market (it is not all bad). The conversation also touches on regional variability in property performance and the outlook for upcoming economic reports and events....
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the recent lending data from the Reserve Bank, highlighting a significant increase in bank switching and refinancing activity. They explore the impact of cash incentives on borrower behavior and the implications for the housing market. The conversation also touches on insights from the Cotality decoding report , listener questions about spare capacity in the economy, and the dynamics of the labor market. T...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, host Nick Goodall and guests discuss the findings of the Decoding 2026 report , which surveyed over 1,000 property professionals about their read on the market and expectations for the future. The conversation covers the improved sentiment in the market, regional differences in property values, the impact of interest rates, and the evolving digital landscape in real estate. The gu...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest inflation data for Q4, discussing its implications for the official cash rate and the broader economy. They explore the nuances of core inflation, the dynamics of the property market, and the significant role of first-time buyers (following the release of the January Chart Pack ). The conversation highlights the ongoing economic recovery and the various indicators that suggest a positive tren...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in the construction sector, focusing on the Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) for Q4 . They note that construction costs have remained relatively flat, with a slight increase of 0.9% for the quarter and 2.3% for the year, which is below the long-term average. The conversation highlights the potential for increased activity in the construction sector due to low interest rates and impr...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the property market's performance in 2025 , highlighting the minor decline in property values and the resilience of first home buyers. They delve into lending trends, investor dynamics, and the potential impact of global economic factors on the local market as they look ahead to 2026. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn , X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com o...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode of the NZ Property Market Podcast we republish in full the Property Academy podcast, from OPES Partners where Cotality Head of Research Nick Goodall made a guest appearance to discuss the intricacies of the Cotality Home Value Index. Along with hosts Ed McKnight and Andrew Nichol, Nick delves into the revolutionary hedonic index, which uses regression modelling to estimate property values based on various characteristics. T...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market podcast, host Nick Goodall engages with Loan Market mortgage advisors from various regions, including Queenstown, Tauranga, and Mangawhai. The conversation explores local market insights, property trends, and the impact of foreign buyers on the market. Advisors share their expectations for the summer property market and discuss interest rate trends, providing valuable insights for potentia...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! In this episode Nick and Kelvin discuss the just-released GDP data for Q3, which reported a 1.1% growth in the economy, and what the implications are for the future of the economy and importantly, monetary policy. They analyse the sectors contributing to this growth, the revisions to previous GDP figures, and the potential impact on the Reserve Bank's decisions regarding interest rates. The conversation also touches on the importance of mo...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week, following the release of Cotality's Best of the Best report , Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest suburb performance metrics, review the year in the property market, and set expectations for 2026. They explore economic indicators, migration trends, and the implications of recent RMA changes on housing supply. The conversation also delves into long-term property market outlooks and personal reflections on the year. Sign up for new...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! Following the release of the Cotality NZ Home Value Index for November , this week Nick and Kelvin discuss the impact of Auckland's housing market on national home values, the regional variability in property markets, and the importance of building consents for housing supply. Courtesy of a few listener questions they then delve into interest rate predictions and the potential effects of flood risk on property values, emphasizing the need ...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest Pain and Gain report , discussing the current state of the property market, resale performance, and economic indicators. Thanks to a listener question they also explore the implications of unemployment as a lagging indicator and the complexities of migration data (and revisions of). Plus, Nick provides an overview of the Opes Partners Property Academy Podcast which he featured on last week - ...
The hosts analyze the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's recent 0.25% OCR cut, noting its alignment with expectations and the RBNZ's forecast for minimal further cuts and no rate increases until early 2027. They delve into how this stimulatory policy aims to underpin consumer and business confidence, counteracting risks of a slow economic recovery. The discussion also covers the projected modest house price growth aligned with wage increases, the RBNZ's optimistic GDP forecasts, and a significant drop in "uncertainty" mentions, signaling increased market confidence for the long term.
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week, following the publication of the latest Monthly Chart Pack , Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in sales volumes, the implications of a proposed capital gains tax, and with the final MPS of the year this week, the outlook for monetary policy. They explore how these factors influence the housing market and investor sentiment. Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn , X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and emai...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin delve into the latest insights from the first home buyer report , migration trends, and retail spending data. They discuss the resilience of first home buyers in the current market, the tentative signs of a turnaround in migration, and the cautious optimism surrounding retail spending. The conversation also touches on the importance of community engagement and the recent client dinner, highlighting the diverse ran...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This special guest episode launches the latest joint research by Cotality and Westpac, looking at first home buyers. Kelvin Davidson, Chief Property Economist at Cotality, is joined by Westpac's Senior Economist, Satish Ranchhod to discuss the latest report, including the broader macroeconomic and interest rate environment. They then move into the detail of FHB activity, including % market share (by region and price bracket), types of prop...
Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message! This week Nick and Kelvin discuss the latest trends in mortgage lending , interest rates, and the labour market. They explore the rise in mortgage lending activity, the implications of interest-only lending, and the slight increase in the unemployment rate. The conversation also covers the recovery in building consents and the overall economic outlook, highlighting the importance of adapting to market demands in property development. For m...
