1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Reduce exposure to technology and AI-related names: Exit or pare down positions in the “Magnificent 7” and software names, as they show deteriorating technical patterns and are considered overvalued. [12:36 - 13:19] * Dollar-cost average into an S&P 500 index fund for a core holding: For a foundational, low-maintenance portion of a portfolio, systematically buy an index fund, acknowledging that beating the market over time is exceptionally difficult. [16:...
Mar 22, 2026•1 hr 46 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Prepare for Sustained Geopolitical Risk Premium: Assume the Iran conflict will not be resolved quickly. The targeting of Kharg Island directly threatens 90% of Iran’s oil exports, creating a floor under oil prices and a persistent source of volatility. [ 01:14 - 02:02 ] * Rotate Capital Away from AI Hype and into Real Assets: The market is now punishing companies for increasing CapEx (e.g., Oracle’s stock rose after not raising spending). This signals a peak ...
Mar 16, 2026•1 hr 36 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate Capital into Gold Miners for Asymmetric Risk/Reward: Based on the analysis of record profitability, low valuation multiples, and operational leverage, initiate or increase positions in gold mining equities. The core investment thesis does not rely on gold prices moving higher from current levels to generate substantial returns. [07:28 - 08:25] * Apply a “Two Truths” Framework to AI Investing: Separate the fundamental impact of AI from the investment vi...
Mar 09, 2026•1 hr
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Re-evaluate the “Gold vs. Bonds” trade as a core portfolio hedge: While the long-gold position has been successful, the short-bond component has been less effective in US Treasuries. Consider implementing this thesis through alternative expressions, such as going long Japanese banks, which benefit from rising domestic yields. [00:08:02] * Maintain or add to gold positions as a strategic reserve asset, not a short-term momentum play: The primary driver is stru...
Mar 04, 2026•54 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Fade the AI Hype, Focus on Fundamentals: Based on Nvidia’s earnings action and the unsustainable business models of “neocloud” providers like CoreWeave, investors should avoid or consider shorting overvalued AI hardware and compute stocks. The market is signaling that the data center buildout bubble is peaking. [00:28:47 - 00:30:06] * Prepare for a Commodities Supercycle: Initiate or add to positions in gold, silver, and energy stocks. The confluence of a dep...
Mar 02, 2026•2 hr 19 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate portfolio weights away from the U.S. and into non-U.S. developed markets: The structural overweight to the U.S. (75% of global market cap vs. 25% of global GDP) is an extreme anomaly that is likely to revert, making relative value trades (long rest-of-world, short U.S.) a high-conviction opportunity [23:15, 24:30] . * Initiate or increase exposure to hard assets and commodity producers: Shift capital into copper, agricultural commodities, and precious ...
Feb 24, 2026•1 hr 23 min
1.Strategic Actions and Decisions * Aggressively rotate portfolio exposure away from US large-cap tech : The “Magnificent Seven,” and passive index funds, redirecting capital into international markets, small/mid-cap value, energy, and gold. The group cites a “tectonic shift in leadership” where foreign markets (like China) have already begun to outperform and commodity-driven economies are benefiting from a structural boom. [00:03:26] [00:08:04] [00:12:21] [00:14:55] * Initiate or increase posi...
Feb 23, 2026•2 hr 28 min
As markets are closed today, we’ve got a special edition of Talking Markets for you, recorded February 11. George Noble , author of the fantastic Noble Update , joined us to share why “the last shall be first and the first shall be last” - as markets are at a critical inflection point where the US-centric, tech-driven leadership of the last few years is handing the baton to the commodities, emerging markets, and value stocks. THE 17X BUBBLE AND “CAPEX CHICKEN” George challenged the narrative tha...
Feb 17, 2026•35 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate Capital Out of Tech: Actively reduce exposure to Mag-7 and software stocks (e.g., Microsoft, Nvidia, Palantir) as they show distribution patterns and are “dead money” or in corrective phases. [00:29:35, 00:34:47] * Deploy Capital into Defensive Rotations: Increase allocations to sectors showing accumulation, specifically Energy (XLE), Utilities, and select Value/Staples like Bristol-Myers, which are breaking out to new highs. [00:08:09, 00:40:49] * Imp...
Feb 17, 2026•1 hr 51 min
15 ELITE INVESTORS ARE REVEALING THEIR TOP STOCK PICKS Jay Pelosky - Keynote Speaker This March 11 virtual conference will be generational. $99. No fluff, no mindset talk – just raw actionable insights to MAKE MONEY Register now to lock in early-bird pricing (recording available if you can’t make it live): Noble-capevents.com Get full access to The Noble Update at georgenoble.substack.com/subscribe...
Feb 13, 2026•3 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Shift from US to International Markets : As US mega-cap tech corrects, allocate capital to Japan, Europe, and emerging markets, all of which are entering new secular bull markets [00:04:23-00:04:47]. * Overweight Energy, Metals & Regional Banks : Increase exposure to energy (especially offshore/service) and precious metals (gold/miners) as they break out, and position in regional banks poised for deregulation-led growth [00:05:13-00:09:19]. * Position for...
Feb 10, 2026•1 hr 19 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Assess capital allocation: Julien Garran states the current AI-driven capital misallocation is 17x worse than the dot-com era, indicating severe systemic risk. [1:50] * Model macroeconomic impact: Prepare for scenarios where a slowdown or reversal in AI investment could reduce GDP by 3-6%, necessitating macro intervention. [2:35] * Evaluate AI vendor financing risk: Monitor “circular vendor financing” (exemplified by NVIDIA’s 770% receivables growth) as a lea...
Feb 05, 2026•1 hr 3 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Pivot away from speculative technology investments (AI, crypto, high-valuationsoftware) toward sectors like commodities (gold/silver miners), energy, and international markets [00:02:31 – 00:02:49]. * The AI trade is overvalued and identifies a systemic risk; short or avoid companies reliant on unsustainable AI narratives and “Neo Cloud” financing models [00:50:18 – 00:50:40]. * Software sector (SaaS) is deemed a “too hard” investment due to AI-driven commodi...
Feb 04, 2026•2 hr 3 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Rotate out of tech, software, and crypto—“just say no to technology, just say no to Bitcoin, just say no to software”—and move into energy, materials, and physical assets. [00:07:49 – 00:08:13] * Reassess AI investments immediately. The group discusses breaking news that Nvidia walked away from a $100 billion deal with OpenAI, which they see as a major crack in the AI “picks and shovels” narrative. [00:12:22 – 00:13:22] * Hedge your book and get ready for mor...
Feb 02, 2026•1 hr 47 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Shift portfolio allocations toward commodities and small-caps, as a major market rotation is confirmed away from large-cap growth and toward natural resources and value. * Maintain or initiate positions in gold and silver, treating pullbacks as consolidation opportunities within a powerful bull market driven by macroeconomic fear, not short-term speculation. * Establish or increase exposure to the Russell 2000 (IWM), targeting a move toward 3200 to capitalize...
Jan 25, 2026•1 hr 25 min
1. Strategic Actions and Decisions * Portfolio Rebalancing: Divest from government bonds (sovereign debt) and transition toward gold and silver to hedge against “default by inflation” and negative real yields [ 09:02 ]. * Sector Risk Mitigation: Avoid high-beta AI “Neocloud” stocks due to circular financing concerns and unsustainable capital expenditure cycles [ 29:52 ]. * Nuclear Position Adjustment: Exit or avoid speculative nuclear and Small Modular Reactor (SMR) equities; regulatory and cons...
Jan 21, 2026•49 min
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Jan 19, 2026•2 hr 2 min
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, Jay explains why he believes we are in the early stages of a powerful bull market for emerging markets and commodities. Jay particularly favors Brazil and China. You can get more details on Jay’s w...
Jan 15, 2026•1 hr 14 min
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Jan 12, 2026•2 hr 26 min
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Jul 25, 2025•2 min
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Jun 15, 2025•2 hr 6 min
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Jun 14, 2025•52 min
