Is Ukraine's audacious drone attack on Russia a game changer?

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Hello, it's Giles Rittell. It's the week beginning Monday the 2nd of June from The Observer. Welcome to the news meeting. A new era in the threats that we face. demands a new era for defence and security. It is extraordinary footage, an on-board view of what Ukraine claims to be its most damaging drone attack of the war so far. A nationalist candidate backed by Donald Trump, Karol Novrotsky. has won Poland's presidential election in a neck-and-neck race.

They said they would send aid to us. We went to receive the aid. And we were surprised by the Israeli army killing us after bringing us to, as it were, a safe place. The key to lasting peace is clear. The aggressor must not receive... Any reward for war. We are back from the Hay Festival, which is an incredibly long way from, well, from London. We had a brilliant recording with the queen of the festival, Chloe Dalton.

Do go back and listen to the episode if you haven't already. But on with today's show, as always, I'll decide what leads the news. But what that is is still wide open. Here in the studio, vying for my favour, is The Observer's Whitehall editor, Kat Nealon. Hello, Kat. Hello. We are welcoming back one of the hosts of the brilliant podcast Media Storm, Matilda Mallinson. Hello. Hello.

And the Observer's Head of Audio is here too. Hello, Jasper Corbett. Hello. It is a comment on the news today that nobody had a guilty pleasure to bring to the table. And we are not accepting contrived guilty pleasures. So, on that gloomy note... Let's do the long story short in a phrase or a word or a sentence. What are you going to talk about? Let's start with you, Matilda.

Dying to eat. Cat. Mine is Your Country Needs You. Okay. Jasper. Mine is Operation Spider's Web. These are the drone attacks deep into Russian territory over the weekend.

OK, right. Kat, let's hear more about why your country needs you. So I seem to be the only one whose long story short didn't actually explain what it was about. You did the right thing. Thank you. Do I get extra points? Yes. Great. So my pitch is about the Strategic Defence Review, which was commissioned 10 months ago in the first few days of the Labour government.

has been long awaited, somewhat delayed, finally published on Monday morning. And it's a really... fundamental change in the way the UK looks at defence and it's not just about hardware and money being spent on defence which is understandably what a lot of the focus is right now, this question of 2.5% to 3%, with the understanding that in a couple of weeks' time, there's going to be further pressure to actually go to 3.5%, if not higher. There is a sort of legitimate debate.

to be had about can we afford it and where that money comes from if not. But that's not what I want to focus on. I want to focus on what the report says about

all of us civilians, and how it's going to change our lives. Because for the last 30, 40... plus years we have thought of war as something that happens in a far-flung destination it's not something that really troubles the average citizen all that much we might know people that have fought but it's certainly not a large part of society if you think that we have a standing army of around 70 000 people that's

proportionately not very many um and that's all going to change so there were five pillars to this review and one of them was talking about defence as a whole of society endeavour. And that means that we are going to start seeing greater emphasis on defence and military starting at schools. That could include just more engagement with armed forces. It's also about making sure that...

Young people today recognise that things like smartphones, Wi-Fi and so on are actually really vulnerable to attack. developing better resilience to if we no longer have access to these things then what do we do in the 21st century and how do we kind of get by for a few days let's say without them

It's also about developing, I've been told not to call it a home guard, but that is the shorthand version. The longer version is a critical national infrastructure force, which would include engineers. even sort of physical protection, so security guards, to ensure that our infrastructure, substations, undersea cables, all of that. Jazz is properly protected. So does that mean in practice, if I'm a tech person working for, say, British Telecom or something, my day job?

that I might be on a list of someone to go and help out if we come under a cyber attack. Well, interestingly, private business does also have a role to play in this. There is a kind of expectation, or there has in the past been an expectation that it would be public sector led. example the navy uh responsible for looking after undersea cables i think that the the expectation is a bit of rebalancing so that private business actually has

greater sort of expectation of investment in terms of maintenance and repairs. But yes, there will also be a sort of volunteer element to this where we're not looking at conscription, but we are looking at a sort of type of military service.

some of the people I've been speaking to have sort of compared it to what there is in some of the Baltic states Finland keeps coming up for example so there may be a sort of period in which people go and learn to actually fight But also that you have people who are developed at things like logistics or cyber hacking, so on and so forth, so that you have a kind of nation of people that are both much more vigilant and kind of conscious of... the increasing danger.

that we live in as a world with kind of the rise of of threats both you know obviously we talk about russia a lot but also china which is becoming much more technologically advanced and doesn't have the same kind of qualms about who it trades with, that we would do. Quite happy to sell things to North Korea, for example, and Iran, which we probably would rather they didn't. Okay. Can I just interrupt right there?

because this whole of society endeavour aspect of it is what you led on in a very good preview of the review in Sunday's Observer. Is there a risk that it's sort of everything... and therefore nothing, that it's a political statement which gives the government cover, by which the government gives itself cover, for sort of putting the onus on society. and then quietly not spending as much as it should be, buying enough kit.

I don't think so. I mean, the people that I have been speaking to have been very impressed by John Healy, the Defence Secretary, about what they see as his genuine, sincere commitment to actual spending. I think that, I mean, I'm slightly interpreting some of the language at the minute, but we know that the spending review, which the government will be rolling out and will clarify exactly how much each department is going to be getting.

doesn't come out until the 11th of June. So there is a degree to which John Healy's hands are tied, but the government has committed to... accepting in full the recommendations of this report, which are more than 60. So there are specifics around the hardware. But the reason that I want to focus on this is because when I was talking to people, I was thinking about this.

as a civilian who has got zero experience and understanding of the military world, also as a mother of two young boys who are growing up in this environment, thinking, my God, are they going to fight or are they going to be learning? to sort of be super hackers or, you know. But in the meantime, from what you say, it sounds like they might at school, your sons, have the equivalent, a cyber equivalent of the old duck and cover routines that...

Well, people my age or older used to have during the Cold War where you were told what to do in the event of early warning of ICBMs. Your kids might be told what to do if their phones stop working. Is that right? That's one of the things. Yeah. I mean, look. There is also an actual physical threat. As one person said to me, what's been happening in Kiev could just as easily be happening in London, Liverpool and Edinburgh. So there is a physical...

component to this. And I think that, of course, part of what the government is doing here is about deterrence. And they know full well that Russia will be paying attention to what is in this report. defence national security as a whole of society endeavour just as a story right um does that strike you as something that you want to know more about or is it slipping through your fingers. I like the angle. It is something I want to know more about. But what I have seen from commentators...

Telegraph front page is that actually this was a rollback on defence pledges. And I wonder whether that top line is sort of reporting the government's policy according to its press release. and not taking a critical angle first. Jasper? No, I think Matilda's touching on something interesting, which is you've got Keir Starmer standing up at, I think it was in Fazlane, giving a speech announcing this thing.

talking the talk about needing to put the country on a war footing. And then you look at the timeline of these changes and you're like, in 10 years. And you're like, no, no. The threat is right now, and the threat we face is from Russia and other bad state actors, Iran, maybe China as well. And in 10 years, you know...

we may be in another world altogether. And so I think there is something about the kind of language around this and the kind of urgency that he is, you know, talking about how much are.

Defenses have been hollowed out, or we now know that to be the case. But there is a fascinating social point here. When you think of Israel, but you also think of places like Switzerland and other countries... which have incorporated a greater...

sort of broad-based grassroots awareness of the need to participate in national security. We're a long way from that. Yeah, and the Finland point is an interesting one. And I went to Finland last summer and stayed with some friends who told us that at the start of the invasion, they were... given very clear warnings you know get enough water that could last for three months get you know a sort of energy electricity generator the husband has been on military training himself so as a society

they are much readier than us now that's because it needs must because they're much closer to Russia than we are but as I was saying that the sort of technological advancements mean that actually being sort of a bit further away from Russia is no longer really the kind of saving grace that...

once it was right last year the day the general election was called actually the government put out a thing saying a sort of advisory notice thing technical term yeah policy a paper a bit of bit of advice to everyone to say actually

have bottled water you should have food for you know a few days you should have batteries all of that kind of stuff and then during the campaign do you remember rishi sunak suggested uh some form of conscription yeah and everyone kind of laughed and mocked him now look the policy itself

looked like a bit of a back of a fag packet thing. But everyone just laughed in principle at the idea of conscription. What a load of nonsense. Right. We've got to move on. But first, we're going to take a quick break and then we'll hear what Matilda thinks should lead the news. How did the dog sneak out? When did that parcel vanish? Who was outside last night? Arlo doesn't miss a thing. From 4K cameras to powerful AI detection.

Arlo makes a watched-over space a safer space. Arlo. Ten years of innovation in one powerful security system. Find out more and get conditions at...

Right, welcome back. Matilda, tell us more about dying to eat. So this refers to an attack or a shooting near an aid site in Gaza in which at least 21 people... were killed, Palestinians and 179 injured. I'm taking the most conservative estimates there, which are from the Red Cross. But this was not just any aid site. This aid site is the one administered by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a very controversial tool in Netanyahu's new aid plan or so-called new aid plan for Gaza.

But what it does is it takes away responsibility for aid distributions from international NGOs like the UN that have certain humanitarian obligations and into the hands of a private organization that is... backed by the US and Israeli governments and it is enforced by Israeli military. It essentially brings aid into the control of the Israeli military and also US private security contractors. In other words...

We were also warned that this was a very, very dangerous ploy. The UN and other aid groups refused to comply with this new aid plan. And one of the reasons they gave is that they believe Israel. was using these aid sites as bait to pull Palestinians to the south of the enclave in Gaza and ultimately displace them across the border.

But if we're seeing multiple shootings at these incidents, then it could be bait for something arguably more sinister. Israel first denied that there were shootings or that they were aware of any shootings. They then said that... warning shots were fired. That means that it is still unclear what happened to provoke Israeli military essentially open firing on starving Palestinians who gathered for food. The other significant thing to note about this attack is that...

It signals a shift to a new phase in Israel's war in Gaza, and that is the ground offensive, so-called Operation Gideon's Chariot. And cabinet members have described this as a plan to conquer the territory in full. The Red Cross reported that this incident... is the highest number of weapon wounded that they've seen since they opened their field hospital. I want to interrupt right there because I don't want...

I don't want the pitch to go too wide. We started at this specific aspect of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation's food distribution. I want to stay there because in a previous episode, we have... discussed the fact of it and the risk of privatisation of aid as a concept. But what you're driving at is a very significant sort of... extra component of this story which is what you've described as possibly the IDF using food as bait like everything about

everything that's happened in Gaza since October the 7th, 2023, this is sort of subject to interpretation, isn't it? I mean, you could look at this, I've just sort of put it to you as... Israel, first of all, backing a largely American-funded effort to... distribute food without it getting into the hands of Hamas. And second of all, to use it to draw people to the south, as you say.

but not necessarily as bait to get them out of the south of Gaza into Egypt and elsewhere, but to clear the north for possibly further military operations to... eliminate what remains of hamas which is a different different gloss on the same thing isn't it This is why I think this should be the main story, because it's not down to interpretation. If you look at Netanyahu's own description of the aid plan and the words of other Israeli ministers like Bezalel Samotrich, the finance minister.

They have explicitly said in Hebrew press releases that the goal, one, is to prevent Hamas looting aid, which is the goal that they've presented in English-speaking language press releases. Two... that they are using, they are concentrating aid in the South in order to...

clear Palestinians from the north of the territory to clear the way for their ground offensive. And they have used the term conquer to conquer the territory as well. But that's different. That's different from luring them to the south. to evacuate the whole territory. Look, I accept that Smotrich and Ben Gavir have spoken of emptying out Gaza, but...

We're perhaps dancing on the head of a pin here, but I think we need to be aware that drawing the civilian population to the south for military purposes, however misconceived, in the north... is a different goal from drawing the civilian population to the south in order to get them out. Netanyahu has said...

and then on from there. So to draw themselves and then on from there. So this is the issue for me. I think we're having the wool pulled over our eyes. The question I want to ask with this story is, are we, the international community, being duped?

Because this story will not be the main story across other media, but it should be a really, really awkward story for our government. Last week, our government made its harshest criticism of Israel yet. David Lammy speaking in Parliament. They threatened ending trade talks. They sanctioned three individuals, two organisations, I think. And they said that if in Israel...

If A continues with use of starvation as a weapon of war and B continues this ground offensive, then we will take action to stop it. And so your question is why are they not taking action? We're not, no. Okay. Jasper, if you read the Jerusalem Post on this story, it just has sort of top ten paragraphs about how this...

Gaza Humanitarian Foundation is doing a brilliant job of distributing millions of meals. Well, it's difficult, isn't it? I think one of the difficulties of all of this is that Western... news outlets aren't allowed into Gaza to report independently. And so you do end up in this kind of world where, you know, parallel universes seem to exist according to different news organizations. So it's really, really difficult to cover. I don't know. I think the whole thing...

you know, you watch what's going on in Gaza with a sort of increasing sense of kind of hopelessness. Kat, what's your take on Matilda's question, are we being duped? And do you think that is the right way to go at this story at the moment? Are we being duped? We, the British people, or the government, there's two different ways. I think the government... has probably been slow, but has been working towards the point that we saw it get to.

last week for some time. I think the expectation was that it would happen a lot quicker. I think there is criticism, certainly from within the Labour Party itself, even from quite senior.

MPs that it has taken as long as it has done but you saw almost immediately the response from Netanyahu you know he named Starmer he named Macron for supporting Hamas yeah and saying that they had blood on their hands um which i think was a fairly horrific response and also you know would seem to me to push people that have stood by you despite a lot of criticism from their domestic audience for a very long time, further away. So I do wonder whether the balance is now shifting. You point out.

we the government, we the people, these are two different we's. This is where I think we the people might be being slightly duped by our government. There's a lot of words and there's no action.

When they threatened to suspend trade talks last week, within days, they sent the UK trade envoy to Israel to have these discussions. You know, hours after Lammy's statement, the UK lent a surveillance drone to... surveil gaza uk companies are still profiting of supplying f-35 fighter jet parts to israel we are directly complicit in this, in what is happening here. And I think that the harsh words in response to the aid blockade in Gaza, which came

months after the A blockade began. I think it was 11 weeks after the A blockade began. Okay, just two quick questions, if I may. Back to the nitty-gritty of what's happening as the IDF takes effective control of food distribution. We were talking... and forgive me for sounding obsessed with this, about bait or not bait. Is there any conceivable sort of tactical justification for this in terms of filtration?

a loaded word, but if you do force people through Israeli military lines to get to the distribution points, does that, is that, can you possibly... argue that's a legitimate military technique for trying to identify residual Hamas fighters and detain them. The justification that's been given is exactly that. And in theory, you could see it potentially working.

There's two things I'd say. One is that I think Israel has delegitimized their own argument by using accusation, unproven accusations of people being Hamas to justify the killings of journalists, academics. We saw 15 paramedics killed in a targeted attack that Israel gave a false account of. So I rather think that they have delegitimized that excuse. Thank you, Matilda, very much. Let us...

hear from you, Jasper, a bit more about Operation Spider's Web. So Operation Spider's Web is the name given to an operation by the Ukrainian government, by Zelensky, to what has also been described as sort of audacious. raid on four Russian air bases. And when you think about...

the size of Russia, you look at a map of Russia, you're talking about the whole of Russia. There are two air bases quite near Moscow, I mean 300 kilometers from Moscow. Another one right up by the Norwegian border near Murmansk. And another one, you know, you have to go all the way over to Mongolia, to this other air base. So there's an extraordinary kind of spread of attacks. And it seems to have taken 18 months in the planning.

and they used these drones hidden in sort of crates that were then put on trucks, and the trucks ended up nearby to these air bases. And then they used Russian mobile phone networks to beam footage back to Ukraine of everything that was going on. And what they seem to have done is launch these kind of drone attacks onto these four air bases. And in the process, they have...

probably destroyed or put out of action at least 41, I think it is, of Russia's biggest strategic bombers. That's the Ukrainian number. Yeah. And we've seen spectacular footage. Yeah. When are we going to get a sense of how many are really out of action? Well, I think what will happen, because a lot of these bombers have been used to fire cruise missiles, so they're capable of carrying nuclear bombs.

But they've also been used in Ukraine, so we'll get a sense of that when we see fewer cruise missiles coming back into Europe.

into Ukraine. But I think what's really interesting about this story, and in some ways the most interesting thing about it, is it has the opportunity to completely redraw the architecture of modern warfare. Because I spent two minutes noodling around on the internet. today, looking at where, for instance, the United States keeps all its strategic bombers in Dakota, in Louisiana. You can see them all parked on the tarmac in these air bases. Now, on the basis that...

The Ukrainians managed to do that to destroy half of Russia's strategic bombing force. A third. Well, they've got 90 in total, and we think they've destroyed or put out of action 41, so they're heading towards a half. But if you were America now, you might think, actually, we need to get all these strategic bombers undercover somewhere.

You know, and that's what I mean about it changing the kind of nature and notion of warfare. And one of the biggest things that's happened in the Ukrainian war is the use and the advance of... drone warfare. Especially in the absence of more long-range missiles from the US to Germany. And I think to Kat's story's point is why the Strategic Defense Review is probably going to be one of the sort of shortest lived documents in that.

particular kind of space. Don't talk about drone warfare. Because they've got very little useful to say about drone warfare and the nature of the kind of threats we now face. Okay, Kat, do you want to come back? Because you just had a...

No, it's not true. I mean, drones feature heavily. But not what you pitch. Because I don't think that it's what most people... the 65 million people living in this country necessarily I mean they might read a fun story about drone warfare but actually when it comes to their day-to-day life

That's not what's going to affect them. But what if it is this actual technological development that changes the course of the war? But that's part of it. His story is a subset of my story. Oh, nice. OK, Matilda, has this story grabbed your attention?

Yes, to an extent. It's just boys with toys. And this is where the challenge is. Of course, the Ukraine war... is slipping out of media focus the longer it goes on and it's really important to keep people engaged in that and this is a worthy way to do that but it could be arguably quite technical

As a story. Boys with toys, Jasper? I don't know. I think there's a bit of that to this, but it's also, you know, you've got Peace Talks kicking off again or starting again in Istanbul again. Today. Today. This story really, really matters. It's about the sort of kind of future of the West, ultimately, about who prevails in this battle. There's no chance that the peace talks are going to go anywhere.

I dispute that. That was kind of the vibe the first round a week or 10 days ago, but they still arranged a big prisoner exchange. I mean, it's not peace, but it's not nothing. There's bits and pieces, I suppose, around the edges, but in terms of the actual kind of any long-term settlement.

It feels like it's still a long way from there. Russia is definitely winning the battle on the ground, and they're expecting a big summer offensive. So it's really important if we believe that Ukraine has a kind of just... reason for attacking Russia in these kind of things and putting out of action some of these weapons. This kind of thing is really, really important. I want to pick up on one further aspect of your story.

It was pointed out this morning that Ukraine did not tell Trump in advance about this attack. Don't you think that's interesting? Well, why would you? Why would you? Because it might get back to the Kremlin. Exactly. I mean, I'm not sure, but would they have told any of their Western allies about it? Probably not. But I was trying to think, could they have done a controlled experiment where they'd...

leaked it to a bunch of them or leaked it anyway. I mean, actually, there's a really interesting... I suspect it would have got straight back to. There's a really interesting element of this story, which is that they... There seems to have been this sort of kind of complex chess game where they did launch attacks at various different air bases, forcing Russia to move these strategic bombers into these other places that they've then attacked. Ah, fascinating. And I'm sure there'll be...

more to read about that. Okay, we come to the funnest part. Funnest is a term that is the superlative of fun. of the programme, where you guys get to tell me what you think should lead the news with only one caveat, you cannot choose your own story. So, Matilda, do you want to go first? Your country needs you, because for me... It made me feel both intrigue and alarm. Okay. Kat. This is really hard. I think I'm going to go with...

Jasper's story because I think it does have quite alarming consequences for the world, but is kind of a good news story. initially but the kind of consequences I think are the sort of where you would want to focus on it but the only reason that I haven't put Matilda first really is because I think it's more of a kind of

There's some open questions to it and it's maybe more of an opinion piece at the moment rather than the way that it's pitched more than a news story. Okay. What's your name again? Jasper. So I would pick a bit of Matilda's story. No, you can't do that. Because I don't think the British government angle interests me at all. But I am really interested in the group now doing the aid and what happened on the ground.

as much as possible as the story. With the Strategic Defense Review, it's kind of interesting, but it's like a good diary story that comes out, comes and goes. And really, by the time we get to the NATO summit on June the 24th, this thing is going to be in the rearview mirror. So wait a minute, which one are you going with? So I'm going for Matilda's story. Okay. But it's specifically about what happened on the ground. A little less back chat and a little more, I don't know.

Thank you. OK, we're going to take another short break. And when we come back, we will learn what I say should lead the news. Who was outside last night? Arlo doesn't miss a thing. From 4K cameras to powerful AI detection, Arlo makes a watched-over space a safer space. Arlo. 10 years of innovation in one powerful security system. Save 20% on selected products with the code ARLO20 at arlo.com. Conditions apply.

Now, I have to say what I think should lead the news, and I am going to avoid rising to the various baits that have been dropped on the pond in this episode of the news meeting. Kat, I was more interested than I thought I was going to be in your pitch. I wanted it to go further than your excellent story, which I plugged earlier.

And it did because it got me thinking about this whole of society endeavor and reminded me of an interview I once did with Victor Davis Hanson on a raisin farm in central California. He was at the time... the US Defence Secretary's favourite historian because he had written a book about how essential it was for...

vibrant, strong democracies to have everybody involved in defence. And that was with reference to ancient Greece and the Hippolytes, if I remember rightly, who were not the Spartans per se, but they were... They were pretty fearsome warriors. But the whole idea that democracy needs defence is more apposite and obviously relevant than ever.

It's not going to lead, though. Nor is the story about the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. I'm going to be brutal here. It's in the nature of the news business that even if it's a big story... You don't get a big bite at the cherry every day. And we had a big bite at this cherry in the last episode when Chloe Dalton set out the basics of the story. You're absolutely right, Matilda, that... The question of what's really happening on the ground is extremely important.

in determining who gets food, but also determining what the real motives for switching away from a UN-run operation to a GHF-run operation are. But to Jasper's point, we are somewhat hamstrung. in the very, very limited access for news operations to Gaza. And so we're left with an opinion piece. So 1-0 to Jasper there in... helping to skewer your story. The bait that I'm not rising to is the boys with toys bait. I think that the Operation Spider's Web is the story that leads.

because it's the most recent. The Defence Review has been trailed for days and weeks. We know that. We know that. Yes, when it's finally published, if you're right, it hasn't been published yet, and we read it all in detail, there may be some more morsels to land on the cooking surface, and we'll cook them up into another story. In the meantime, the fact that Ukraine has managed to destroy nuclear-capable bombers 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine. Five and a half. No, no.

The Bieleja base near Irkutsk is about 4,000, 2,500 miles from. Oh, my God. Anyway, whatever. It's a long way. That's a boys with toys debate. Yeah, that is. That is. Whether or not it actually ends up changing the course of the war in Ukraine, it shows that... The Ukrainians have adopted a whole of society approach to defending their homeland, which includes creating what are clearly the world's most sophisticated.

drone weapons and it will do no end of good for Ukrainian morale, which is suffering, and it may save... countless lives which would otherwise have been taken by these cruise missiles and glide bombs and other things which are being dropped by these planes. So, and also, I concede, the visuals are spectacular. That is my decision. Matilda, Kat, Jasper, thank you very much for joining me. Thank you. Thank you.

Don't forget, you can get your ticket for our forthcoming shows at observer.co.uk forward slash book. And those include Ed Davey, the Liberal Democrat leader, tomorrow in conversation with our political editor, Rachel Sylvester, talking about his... new book, Why I Care and Why Care Matters. We'll be back as normal on Friday. Until then, goodbye.

Detecting strangers, ignoring neighbors and delivering alerts with crystal clear footage to your phone. From 4K cameras to award-winning doorbells, Arlo captures everything through one powerful AI system, Arlo Secure. Because a watched-over space is a safer space. Arlo. Ten years of innovation in one powerful security system. Find out more and get conditions at arlo.com.