Is there any difference between the Tory party and Reform? - podcast episode cover

Is there any difference between the Tory party and Reform?

Oct 06, 202540 min
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Summary

The News Agents delve into the UK Conservative Party's struggle for relevance, examining Kemi Badenoch's low public recognition and the party's uncertain position between Labour and the surging Reform UK. The discussion highlights internal divisions caused by policies like ECHR withdrawal and critically assesses the legal and political ramifications of such a move on human rights, the Good Friday Agreement, and international cooperation. The episode concludes with a look at political instability in France.

Episode description

This week at a depleted Tory conference Kemi Badenoch must try and convince her party of its need to exist and of her own place at the top of it. The problem, though, is many voters simply haven’t heard of her. Is anonymity worse than unpopularity? And how does she make new policy announcements without sounding like Reform-lite? We talk to Luke Tryl from More in Common.

Later, what does the ECHR really do, and what would happen to Britain if we left it? Joshua Rozenberg gives us the lawyers lowdown.

Visit our new website for more analysis and interviews from the team: https://www.thenewsagents.co.uk/

The News Agents is brought to you by HSBC UK - https://www.hsbc.co.uk/

Transcript

Kemi Badenoch's Anonymity & Party Identity

This is a Global Player original podcast. The interesting thing with Kemi Baidenock is it's not that she's unpopular, particularly with voters, it's that they don't know who she is. So I ran a focus group on Thursday night in North East Hertfordshire. You know, this is traditionally a sort of true blue.

Tory seats. And this was with eight people, all of whom were previous Tory voters, had only abandoned the party in twenty twenty four. And I asked them, I said, Do you know who the leader of the Conservative Party is? to get into a discussion about how Kemi Bage knock was doing.

I couldn't get into that discussion about Kemi Bajenock because only one of the group of eight knew who she was and that she was the leader of the party, which is pretty extraordinary. That is Luke Trill from the Pulsar's More in Common on a focus group. where virtually everyone in the room Hadn't even heard that. Of Kemi Badnock. Is it worse to be unpopular or is it worse to be unrecognised as Kemi Badnock tries to lead her party into a new year of her leadership?

Has she worked out what the Conservative Party is for? Welcome to the Newsagents. The news agents. It's John. It's Emily. And that depleted band of brothers and sisters are heading towards Manchester for the Conservative Party conference. where they're trying to set out their distinct territory

And we've heard from Melstride the Shadow Chancellor today saying we're the party of fiscal responsibility. We're no longer going to pay more than we can afford. We've got to have a bit of rectitude in our spending and all the rest of it. The problem with that is

left Labour a fiscal black hole. We can argue over the size of it, but it was a substantial black hole where they had spent more than they could afford. They did promise things that there wasn't the budget for. And you've got to question well, okay, if that is who you are now

How much distance are you putting between yourselves and the last government brackets which you served in? Yeah, I think there's one big question hanging over the next few days, which is How much those that are left, and by that I mean both Conservative MPs and the grassroots, the members. want to see

Conservatives as a "Distressed Asset"

the Conservatives reassert their own identity and how much they want them to become more like reform, looking like, sounding like reform. We've seen that change of mission over the weekend from Kemi Baidnock. Who's now said after a year of pondering, it is right that the Conservatives leave the ECHR. In fact, for those of you who are wondering, we're going to do an explainer.

a little bit later with Joshua Rosenberg on what the ECHR actually does and doesn't do, just to kind of try and get under the bonnet of that one a bit. But I do think that It is a really interesting moment to see how the Conservatives are describing themselves, just as you say, and their relationship to the last.

Four, five conservative prime ministers that have been before. And Kimmy Badenot gave an interview to our podcaster colleague, Amma Kelvoy, last week in which she described her own party as a distressed asset. And it's such an odd phrase. On the one hand you're like

Well done you for like, you know, the elephant in the room. Well done you for calling it out. Good old fashioned honesty. Just say it as it is, you know, in the same way that Theresa May once called them the nasty party. But actually I've just pulled up this definition of a distressed asset. An asset that's in financial trouble, often leading to a sale at a discounted price due to financial strain default or potential foreclosure. In other words, it's the kind of phrase you use about something

Before you can sign it to the dustbin. And so I think it is a really, really big moment to see how Kemi Badenock and how those around her. reposition this party where they can't fill the hall, they can't fill the timetable, there are speeches being made to empty chairs. They're trying to find out, in real time, who they are and who their supporters or putative supporters want them to be. And I think That question is still unanswered, but

As you say, it's the asset you want to get rid of. The last thing you want to keep hold of is a distressed asset. And that's how she's described her own party. Look, at my count, there are six living former Conservative Prime Ministers. A mark of how the party is doing is to ask this question How many of those people John Major, David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May,

Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, will be at the Conservative Party conference this week in Manchester. Do you know the answer to that? Well I bet you it's zero. It's a round number. It's a round number. No one wants to go near. The brand has become more toxic, I think. Now part of me admires the way Kemi Badenok is trying to

take this and you know the ECHR work has given them a day of headlines. Melstride has come out and talked about what he wants to do economically and accused reform of being way way to the left in wanting to nationalise everything in its, you know, sight. And so they are staking out a bit of territory that may be different. But also they're trying to outflank reform as well by wanting to create a kind of their own version of ICE.

the immigration and customs enforcement body. The people in America who were rounding dance. Rounding up immigrants and basically rounding up anyone who's brown are just taking them away and you don't quite know what's going to happen to them. Next. And I think that that is kind of okay. Well that's worked for every well. Also, I think the other thing that I thought was remarkable is sort of putting a number. We are going to get rid of seven hundred and fifty thousand illegal immigrants

In the first parliament, we're going to round up one hundred and fifty thousand per year. Hang on, how has it worked for the Tories so far to give numbers? On migration. You know, David Cameron, tens of thousands net migration didn't happen. And every time you've set a number like that.

It's led to failure and led to the emboldening of populist parties who say they're all bloody rubbish and reform will be kind of probably rubbing their hands at that. I think it's even simpler than that, isn't it? Which is what is the space that they're inhabiting now?

The "Reformization" of the Tories

Using your example of America, the MAGA right or the MAGA body. looks at the old fashioned Republican and calls them Republicans in name only, Rhino. And they tend to be the fiscal hawks, they tend to be the sort of anti Russia pro Ukraine, pro Israel. America big in the world. Yeah, exactly. America has a place on the world stage and a responsibility on the world stage and MAGA hates the Rhinos pretty much as much, maybe more than it hates the Democrats.

So you're kind of asking, what is the conservative that sits between Labour and reform. Is reform a party of the extreme right or is reform a party that joins the horseshoe of left and right in the same way that MAGA does? And if that is the answer, then what is the constituency that the Tories are going for? That's such an interesting question because I think once you frame it

in the US context. And of course our politics is completely different. We've got a parliamentary system, theirs is a presidential system. And a more fractured party system. And a more fractured party system. But what happened in America Was that let's use the financial parlance. So we've had distressed assets. This was a reverse takeover. R the Republican Party was taken over by the much smaller band that was MAGA, and the Republican Party still has a name.

It still has the nameplate, the Republican Party. But it is the MAGA party. And an elephant. Yeah, and an elephant. The the Republicans Of old school, of Mitt Romney, of George W. Bush The Atlanticist sort of thing. Atlanticist, outward looking, fiscally conservative. They're gone. They have no power anymore. And I feel we're halfway through that process in the Conservative Party where reform is gradually taking over the Conservative Party and the one nation conservative

feeling less and less at home Who again aren't going. Who aren't going to who aren't going. I I sort of I think I must have made about ten phone calls over the last ten days. of people who would have been central to former Conservative cabinets. None of them are there. I mean it's an extraordinary thing. who will be represented in that hall or on that stage over the next three days? So For every year that I've been going to Conservative Party conferences, which is a lot

It was the wets versus the dries in the Thatcher era and the Wets were the people who were one nation conservative. The Ken Clarks. Yeah, the Ken Clarks of this world and you know, others. There were all sorts who fulfilled that role. But the Conservative Party today looks increasingly a party of the right without the one nation Conservatives acting as some kind of bulwark, whether it be on ECHR, whether it be on fiscal policies, whether it be on mass deportations, whatever it happens to be.

And you feel that the process by which the reformization of the Conservative Party isn't yet complete.

Internal Divisions and Policy Mistakes

Well already cozily installed in Manchester is our favourite polster Loot Trill from More in Common. And as I said at the beginning, one of the questions I think we're trying to ask. is whether the Conservative members, the Conservative grassroots, the Conservative MPs want to align themselves more with reform. And if they don't lose Is there enough difference now between the two parties? It's a really uh good question. I mean there's no doubt there is a significant group within both the

Tory membership and the Tory parliamentary party who have kind of always wanted the Conservative Party to be more like reform. I mean, you sort of saw that during the Brexit years. They wanted a more kind of full hot blooded right wing approach. Bye! The strength of the Tory coalition has always traditionally been that yes, it has had those people who are more on the right.

But the sweep of the coalition has also gone through to people who are much more liberal in their outlook in places like the Blue Ward, you know, conservatives used to hold almost every seat in places like Oxfordshire, for instance. They've lost all of those since. And so I actually think what you're seeing at the moment in the Conservative Party is a is a coalition that's actually quite split.

And I think the slightly unusual decision by the leadership is the things that they have announced in the run up to this conference, whether it is repealing the Climate Change Act or the decision to leave the European Court of Human Rights, are actually issues which split

Tory voters down the middle. Obviously ordinarily in politics you want to try and wedge your opponents. You don't want to try and wedge yourselves. Do you think that they're making a classic mistake which is Actually a very similar one to the one that Labour seems to have made in the last six months, which is responding to the noise of reform. So you think that All the noise that's coming out of reform means that your own supporters want you to be more like that.

I think that's absolutely right. I think that I think the analogy with mistakes the left made is is is very correct. And I think in particular there is a danger that the conservatives are making a similar mistake to one I think reform makes. Sometimes of thinking that Is Britain and thinking that the loud voices, people who post online, are representative of right wing views.

in general. And I think the danger for the Conservatives is you've got there is this big chunk of what I would call institutional conservative. You know, they're they're right wing on lots of issues, but fundamentally they believe in our institutions. You know, they don't want we've talked about before, they don't want to burn everything down. They like a conservative party that's stable. And when We ask people, what does the Conservative Party look like at its best?

the thing which comes top is delivers a strong, stable economy. And yet we hearing very little on the economy from the Conservatives, it seems instead to be chasing after yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r If you're gonna pitch yourself as reform light, those voters are just gonna go for the full fat version anyway. So Luke, last week we spoke about the Parlis position of Keir Starmer in terms of the British public. Where is Kemi Baden on?

The interesting thing with Kemi Baidenock is it's not that she's unpopular, particularly with voters, it's that they don't know who she is. So I ran a focus group on Thursday night in North East Hertfordshire. You know, this is traditionally a sort of true blue uh Tory seat. That shows how bad their loss was that they lost it. at the last election'cause they previously held it even in really quite difficult years.

And this was with eight people, all of whom were previous Tory voters, had only abandoned the party in twenty twenty four. And I asked them, I said, Do you know who the leader of the Conservative Party is? to get into a discussion about how Kemi Bajenock was doing.

I couldn't get into that discussion about Kemi Bajenock because only one of the group of eight knew who she was and that she was the leader of the party, which is pretty extraordinary, right? I mean, I know, you know, we often talk about the fact most people are more politically disengaged. than us and people in Westminster. But at this stage, former Tories not knowing who the leader is, I think really shows that cut-through challenge. And that underlines your point about being on edge.

which is such an unrepresentative way of gauging public opinion. Uh you'd have thought politicians would have learnt by now. I mean Jeremy Corbyn thought we should have won the twenty nineteen general election on the basis of how many likes his tweets would get. Completely. And it's interesting, I thought the challenge going into this party conference

for the Conservatives was to answer the question, what is the point of the Conservatives in a world where you have Reform UK? And I don't think anything that they've done thus far has answered that challenge. You know, they've announced a reform like version of a climate and environment policy.

They've taken what was Reform UK's policy on leaving the European Court of Human Rights. What is distinctive about the Conservatives? And traditionally, that has always been the economy. And it does look like there's some space there. but they seem more interested in the moment of trying to it's almost like they're still treating the split with reform as a family feud rather than a political opponent that they have to define and mark themselves out as different again.

The Tory Party's Existential Crisis

Do you think that's because Kemi Baidnock is still actually arguing with her own front bench about the leadership? In other words, Jenric has already declared that he would take the party out of the ECHR Therefore, Kemi Badnock needs to close that gap with him. And one of the things I'm really interested in getting into, Luke, is your data on whether Tories across all the tribes that you describe are in favour of that as a policy.

If you look at something like the European Court of Human Rights, you essentially split the Tory family down the middle. So the more right leaning segment

You know, the ones who either want to burn it all down or the ones who prioritize immigration want to leave. But the other side of the coalition, the groups that we call established liberals, and actually even the group we call the rooted patriots, who are a sort of red war group, you know, they're you know, concerned about immigration but are really hesitant to

Embark on a return to Brexit wars or Brexit dominating the national conversation. Those two groups oppose it. So it's an issue which splits. um their own coalition. And I think It's interesting that Kemi Baitenock has moved to this position because I think originally she was in the skeptical camp, right? She was she said, She didn't think that it was gonna be the silver bullet. But I think it's a sign of the pressure she is under.

and the fact that ultimately she is being judged against Reform UK and the difference there. And there's a whole swathe of voters on the other side of the coalition who are ending up being neglected and The danger is that you know some of those voters eventually go, Well, you know, the Conservative Party's left me behind. Do you think that the Conservative Party I kinda y hate to use hyperbolic language, but this is almost becoming existential for

I think if they can't answer the question of what do we stand for and what makes us different, it could well become existential. You know, I've spoken to some people here who said, Well You know, it's possible that, you know, Nigel Farage implodes and we're there to pick up the pieces. But when you're at that stage, when you're sort of waiting for this kind of act of God to help you as a political party, it's normally a sign. of how difficult things have become. That said.

Electorates are very volatile. They change a lot. I do think, you know, it might not be a majority winning space, but I do think if the Conservatives can define a strong economic message, which is around fiscal responsibility. Things are very difficult. We have to take tough decisions to balance the books. There's no one making that argument, particularly at the moment. And I think that could be the space for the conservatives to at least stabilize themselves.

But to do that, they've got to make that the front of their offer. And I think if they don't, they're not going to answer that what's the point in us question. And, you know, we know Starmer is already framing the next election as reform v Labour. I think Nigel Farage would very much like to frame it like that as well. They've got to get back into the conversation.

And Luke, on the question of net zero, which as we've seen, you know, former energy secretary Claire Courtino is now sort of coming out and saying no more net zero and it's become deeply unfashionable as a cause for the Conservatives. If you are interested in climate change, if you do care about net zero, is there a world in which you go from being a conservative voter to a green voter under Zach Polansky, or is that just a a leap too far?

W well it's interesting and th th there's no doubt Zach Polansky has had a good uh start as green leader. I think he knows how to capture the attention economy. I think his speech about rip off Britain uh at the Green Conference actually chimes with the public mood very well. But interestingly I think the sort of quid pro quo of his decision to pivot towards this eco populism is it probably makes it harder for him to win over those kind of

soft green voters in places like Waveny Valley or Herefordshire that the Greens won at the last election. And he's clearly pivoting them towards picking up, you know, former Labour votes in student towns. uh big cities. So I think under the current leadership that is less likely to happen. And and look, you know, climate change is an important issue for voters. It's not particularly salient at the moment, so I suspect there won't be many conservative voters who would flip

maybe to the Lib Dems over that alone. But I think there's a wider Peace. there, which is if you are someone who, you know, believes in tackling climate change, believes in international institutions, what is the glue that is going to keep you in the Conservative Party at the moment? And it's not clear. It might come out over for the rest of this conference.

It's not clear what that glue is, and I think that is the real risk for them. Luke, great to talk to you. Thank you so much, as always. Thank you. Thank you. I'll see you tomorrow, Emily. Bye. UK under rank News here in Edinburgh. My American Week is next. Reporting from the Heart. LBC, leading Britain's conversation.

Understanding the ECHR's Role

The news agents. Well, we're joined now by Joshua Rosenberg, solicitor, legal commentator, writer. with a substack, a lawyer of rights and former colleague of mine for many years. Joshua, it's good to have you with us. Thank you so much for talking to us. Look, the ECHR is endlessly in our public debate and conversation. And I kind of sometimes feel do any of us have a real clue? Of what the ECHR is and what it does.

I think that's a very fair question. I fear a lot of people still confuse it with the European Union. uh and think it may be something to do with Brexit. Neither of those is true. The European Convention is an international treaty which was signed by the United Kingdom almost seventy five years ago, seventy five years ago this autumn. And it didn't really have very much impact for many years.

Rwy'n ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl ymwneud â phobl. and it became even more effective almost exactly twenty five years ago, uh, when the Human Rights Act, an Act of Parliament, came into force and that allowed judges in the United Kingdom to enforce

the Human Rights Convention, which meant that people didn't need to go to the Human Rights Court. They could use these rights in the Human Rights Convention by just going to the courts of the United Kingdom. If we leave it, Joshua, what is at stake? Which of our human rights are at stake?

UK Human Rights Without ECHR

I think it's probably fair to say that none of them are at stake. That's certainly the position that the Conservatives would take. they would say that uh we had human rights before the Human Rights Act was passed twenty five years ago and before we signed up to the Human Rights Convention seventy five years ago, and the courts will continue to provide those rights for people who feel that their rights have not been respected by public bodies.

Obviously there will be a difference because you won't be able to say, well, this is my right to family life. This is my right to respect for uh my correspondence. You won't be able to say this is my right to freedom of expression and uh refer to those provisions in the Human Rights Convention. But obviously English common law and statutes passed by Parliament will still be enforced.

And I think the most important aspect of it is that a whole generation of judges are used to the idea of rights and if the UK were to leave the convention and repeal the Human Rights Act, which is what the Conservatives are proposing, well I think that it would leave very significant footprints in the sand, I think the judges would continue to enforce those rights. So let us consider a couple of things that are s specifics about it.

ECHR, Good Friday, and Global Standing

The first one I want to ask you about is that it jeopardises the Good Friday Agreement, which is of course the kind of main thing that people look to as the great achievement of the Blair government when, you know, there was peace in Northern Ireland. Does it jeopardize the Good Friday agreement? The advice to Kemi Badenok from Lord Wolfson KC, the Shadow Attorney General, is that it doesn't.

Uh the terms of the British-Irish Agreement, which is a treaty and part of the Good Friday Agreement, he says. don't require the UK to be a party to the Human Rights Convention and they don't attempt to stop the UK leaving the Human Rights Convention. It's perfectly true that the UK government had committed itself he says in the Good Friday Agreement to allowing direct access to the courts in Northern Ireland and remedies for breaches of the Human Rights Convention.

ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r ymwneud â'r Cymru But the advice to Kemi Badenot is that you can achieve that safeguard in other ways. And uh as far as uh the Conservatives are concerned, it isn't a problem. But Uh if you uh remember what Kemi Badenock said in her speech yesterday, she said

She said the difficulties are not a reason to avoid action, they are a reason to work harder to get it right, and so to make sure this is an orderly and respectful process across the United Kingdom, she's asking the shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, Alex Berghardt.

to lead a review into union wide implementation. Now what that means is clearly she is concerned that this does require some looking into, and I think what she may have in mind is that even if the letter of the law is not inconsistent with the UK leaving the Convention

It is something which is taken extremely seriously, not just in Northern Ireland, but in the Republic as well, and it would be upsetting to the status quo, it would be disturbing, a lot of people would be uncomfortable, and it is something the Conservatives have got to look at.

You've been very clear, uh Joshua, giving us the perspective from the Conservatives when they talk about their desire to leave the ECHR. Obviously from a position of Human rights groups like Liberty, they see this very differently, and they say that leaving the ECHR would put everyone's rights at risk. that it's a person's last resort for holding the state to account when it has abused their rights.

They think that the government's already planning to weaken human rights in the UK through the rights removal bill. And they also say that it would basically renege on our obligations that undermine the UK's credibility. That we are the country that formed part of this in the first place and that the

I guess the signals, the bat signals it sends out, if we were to leave, is that we don't really care, you know, what's happening in Ukraine, we don't really care what's happening in China. We've basically slightly given up on it. That's a very fair comment and uh of course it's also said that the UK would be in the same position as Russia, which was thrown out of the Convention, and Belarus uh which was never allowed in.

And uh it's worth noting that in the advice Lord Wolfson gave to Kemi Badenok, there were times when he said, Look, this is a political decision, that's a matter for you, I'm only a lawyer giving you advice.

uh and he uh accepted that there were circumstances in which there could be difficulties. But of course the whole point of what the Conservatives are considering is to ensure that Parliament can do as Parliament thinks best in the interests of the United Kingdom and that the courts in the United Kingdom are not required to take account of decisions taken by a court in Strasbourg, an international court, which is criticised by those on the Conservative side.

uh for developing the law in all sorts of directions that weren't expected, for example, environmental protection, that sort of thing. And I guess we lose a lot of our relationship. If we pull out of the ECHR with the forty-six countries that are still forty-five countries that are still signed up. The EU would also be able to terminate policing, judicial cooperation with Britain. I mean presumably none of those countries would want to receive any of our Deportations either because

We we would then not be part of what they had already signed up to. That's very much the government's approach. The government says this one in, one out treaty with France that they signed the other week. was possible only because France and the UK are members of the Council of Europe, the international body that administers the Human Rights Court and the looks after the Convention, and the UK uh wouldn't have been able to sign this deal with France.

if the UK had shown that it wasn't interested in these international agreements. It's worth saying, however, Lord Wolfson denies us, he sees no reason uh why uh France wouldn't agree to a deal, and this is obviously a political decision, it's not a legal decision, uh and it's really how the whole thing feels. Which means that it's not consequence free. Just to suddenly say we're doing this.

Challenging ECHR Misconceptions

That's absolutely right. And Emily mentioned the EU. Now you may say, Well what's the EU got to do with us? What have we got to do with the EU. But there's something called the Trade and Cooperation Agreement. That's an international treaty which sets out preferential arrangements in a number of areas and in it the UK and the EU uh reaffirm their respect for the international human rights treaties to which they're parties.

Now Lord Wolfson says that for most of that agreement there's no particular reason uh why there would be any problem uh unless the EU decided to throw out the UK. But he did accept that part three of the agreement, which deals with criminal law enforcement uh is different. This covers uh as Emily said, cooperation uh with Europol and Eurojust.

extradition, mutual assistance, exchange of criminal records, DNA information and even transfer of passenger name records when people travel uh uh on an aircraft into into Europe. And uh the agreement says the EU could withdraw cooperation in these areas as soon as the uh UK leaves the Human Rights Convention. Now uh Lord Wolfson says this is a political risk, he sees no reason uh why they should do this.

They could do it anyway if they wanted to be difficult just by giving us uh twelve month Notice but he says there's no escaping the fact that withdrawal from the ECHR would provide the EU with a ground to terminate part three of the trade and cooperation agreement, although of course uh the EU may decide to waive uh its right to terminate and carry on as before. I mean you're you're painting a a fair picture here, Joshua, but one that certainly sounds as if we are choosing isolation.

from many of the agreements and the institutions that that are underway. I guess one of the things that this comes back to is, you know, we always hear the sort of crazy examples, don't we, of, you know, how the ECHR got in the way of Britain doing what it wanted. in terms of deportations, in terms of, you know, sending people back home or sending unwanted characters.

out of the UK and whether whether Strasbourg, whether you know, whether the ECHR got in our way. Now, isn't it right that I mean I think there's only been there's there's been fewer than thirty cases That's perfectly true, and the sort of cases that make the headlines often inaccurately

are cases in the domestic courts, in what's called the first tier tribunal, what used to be the immigration tribunal, or the upper tribunal which hears appeals. And often what's quoted in the papers uh arguments which were put by refugee c asylum seekers Uh and uh rejected by the tribunal or rejected on appeal. So they have been rejected. I mean sometimes we hear, you know, for example, I think the Albanian chicken nuggets was the one that sort of inflamed the the sort of the headlines

But these are rejected, right? They've never been passed, right? They are. And and there's a much bigger dimension. If you look at what the present government is proposing. what uh Shabana Mahmud, first as Justice Secretary and now as Home Secretary, uh is very keen to do. Uh she wants to introduce legislation.

Now this legislation will apply only to courts in the United Kingdom, of course. It will either amend the Human Rights Act or amend other legislation or give guidance to judges or something. We haven't seen it yet. But if the problem is, as I think you've correctly said by quoting those statistics, if the problem is with the way that these cases are interpreted here,

uh, then the answer is to change the law here or to give guidance. Now, it's perfectly true. You know, nobody wants to be an immigration lawyer, it's very badly paid and and you deal with very sad and distressing cases. But on the other hand, uh if you are looking to recruit immigration judges who specialize in this, well the only people who understand immigration law are people who've practiced it. And because the Home Office doesn't instruct

these lawyers, they have their own staff who appear before these tribunals. All these lawyers have been acting uh for asylum seekers, people challenging the Home Office. So when these people become judges, well there is an argument that they are sympathetic

to the asylum seekers and less sympathetic to the Home Office. But that, if that is a problem, is something that can be dealt with domestically. It's not necessarily a problem caused by the Human Rights Convention and by the Council of Europe.

Reform vs. Full ECHR Withdrawal

So I y you know, listening very carefully to what you've said, Joshua, you wonder whether Britain wouldn't be better off and I'm not saying a Labour or Conservative point, wouldn't be better off s staying in and trying to get reform of the ECHR. Because we're not the only country that's a signatory that thinks there are problems with this that a seventy five year old treaty may not be fit for purpose in twenty twenty five.

That's absolutely right. If you go back a couple of months Slightly longer, to the end of May, an open letter was sent to the Council of Europe by the Danish Prime Minister and her Italian counterpart. Uh it was signed by a total of nine Member States of the

Council of Europe, they were all EU states, which perhaps explains why the UK was not invited to join. But nevertheless, they questioned whether the Human Rights Court had extended the scope of the Human Rights Convention too far compared with the original intentions behind it when it was first drafted, shifting the balance between the interests which should be protected.

Signed by Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. And what they said was Well they believe that the way the court had interpreted the Convention had limited their ability to make political decisions in their own democracies. uh and how they can protect their populations against challenges uh and they quoted for example cases concerning the expulsion of criminal foreign nationals

uh where the interpretation of the convention has resulted in the protection of the wrong people and posed too many limitations on the state's abilities to decide who to expel. Now this is exactly the sort of argument uh that you have in the United Kingdom. and what these people are arguing is what these states are arguing is that the convention should be changed. That is difficult.

It requires agreement by all Member States. It takes a very long time. But nevertheless, the argument is that rather than pulling out, mae'r U.K. yn dweud ymwneud â chaneg, ac fe wneud ymwneud â chaneg ymwneud â chaneg ymwneud â chaneg ymwneud â chaneg ymwneud â chaneg ymwneud â chaneg ymwneud â chaneg

to amend it or at the very least to send a very clear message to the court, which is quite sensitive to political realities, that this is simply not acceptable to the Member States. Joshua last question. Deeply unfair. Putting politics aside, should we pull out?

Lord Wolfson told Kemi Badenok that she had a number of options. One, of course, was to pull out of the Convention he knew that was something she wanted to do. Another was to repeal the Human Rights Act or at least replace it with something else. She received his final advice only last week, it's dated the end of last week. And within a couple of days she had announced not only that she was uh proposing that the Conservatives

if elected at the next election, would pull out of the human rights convention, but they would also repeal the Human Rights Act. So this is the most extreme version of the options presented to her by her shadow Attorney General.

I think there needs to be much more discussion before that is a policy And what the Conservatives seem to have done by saying that anybody who wants to be a Conservative candidate in the next election has to support this policy, what they seem to have done is to shut down debate and say, right, this is over, this is what we're going to do, this is what we're going to stand on.

Now that may or may not be a good political decision, not something I can judge, but it's certainly not the only option she had. Joshua Rosenberg, thanks so much. Thanks for joining us. Thank you so much. My pleasure. The news agents.

French Political Turmoil

The message that I think of Francophone is a message of espoir and optimism, the character, I never, but. That is the resignation speech of Sebastian Le Cornu. If you haven't yet registered his name, that is because he was only Prime Minister. 28 days. He goes down as the pub quiz question answer of the least long serving French PM. How do you say lives less long than a lettuce?

In French. Yeah. I mean yeah La vie d'une lait. Yeah. We're we're on trust territory at the moment and the reason why this is so particularly bad for France is because they've had a series. Of these. We've had five French prime ministers in two years, all under President Macron, who is himself

in a increasingly perilous position at the top of the ticket. Yeah. So you've got a president who cannot form a government or an enduring government because of the parliamentary arithmetic in the National Assembly following his own decision. to bring forward National Assembly elections a couple of years ago and that has backfired spectacularly and left Macron looking like a lame duck president. And leaving Lis trust in the

Feeling a whole lot better about herself. So McCraw now has to basically decide: does he just appoint somebody, a technocrat? He's kind of run out of you know, political allies that can do this job. So either he just parachutes in a sort of technocrat and says, We need to keep this going for another two years or else he pulls the nuclear button, cord, whatever, and says, Oh sod it, I've got to bring forward the presidential elections which aren't meant to be held until m twenty seven, or

I don't know. He scrabbles together some kind of coalition and tries to find a way that he can appoint somebody of a political nature and get their budget through. At the moment that ain't happening. It makes us all look rather sweet and stable. We'll be back tomorrow from the Tory Party conference. See you then. Bye bye. Bye. This is a Global Player original podcast.

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