Is Iran winning the war?

This is a Global Player original podcast. The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press, should be saying one thing to President Trump. Thank you. Thank you for the courage to stop this terror state from holding the world hostage with missiles while building or attempting to build a nuclear bomb. Thank you for doing the work of the free world.

Well, on behalf of all those ungrateful allies, I'd like to offer Pete Heggseth a thank you. Thank you for getting us into the biggest, bloodiest, most dangerous, almighty mess that you no longer control. And also thank you for the fact that Qatari gas fields are being blown up, that the price of oil and gas have gone through the roof, the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. If America is winning, what does loss look like? Welcome to the newsagents. The news agents. It's John.

It's Emily. It's Lewis and it has been uh yet another dizzying twenty four hours in the Iran war. Quick update is to as of about one o'clock in the afternoon, London time, where we are. Overnight, Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field. killed Iran's intelligence minister alongside some of the heaviest airstrikes on Beirut in decades. Meanwhile, Iran retaliated by hitting the energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including crucially, Qatar's Raslafan liquefied national natural gas facility.

This is one of the most important energy pieces of energy infrastructure anywhere in the world, producing around twenty percent of global natural gas. supply. Trump threatened in retaliation to massively blow up the entirety of the Iranian South Pars gas field if Iran attacked. Qatar's energy infrastructure again, while simult simultaneously claiming the US knew nothing about Israel's strike. Economic impact of all of this is absolutely massive and could last.

years. Just overnight we've seen gas prices surging by thirty five percent, oil prices up ten percent, now about$120 a barrel, stock markets around the world in total volatility. And experts, energy eight experts in particular, warning that this stuff cannot be corrected overnight because once it's destroyed it will take years to rebuild. So we could be Baking in energy price inflation which could rock the world economy, not just for weeks or months, but years to come.

And the exactly as you say, the effects are going to be profound, whether it be on interest rates, whether it be on people's mortgages, obviously whether you're able to fill up your car uh at the petrol station, that is, if there is any petrol and so the list of things goes on and on. But of that list I thought the most interesting thing was Donald Trump's post on Truth Social. Because alongside that threat to blow up Iran's

you know, kind of oil feels like nothing has ever been seen before. He said we knew nothing about the Israeli attack. That's completely news to us and we've told them and he says this in block capital letters that they must stop and they will not attack again. And you think Really? Really is it possible? That Israel launched an attack like that in the on Iran when there is this interoperability between the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force over Iran that an attack could have taken place.

Without central command knowing about it. It's just inconceivable. And there's a lot of reporting now from the Wall Street Journal, from some of the best. Kind of Middle East watchers. Saying absolutely Donald Trump knew what Israel was going to do. Absolutely it had been signed off by the Americans. But because there's been such a backlash from the Gulf states who suddenly think Geez, what are we getting out of this friendship with Donald Trump and this alliance with America?

That they're blowing up our facilities. That Donald Trump is now saying, Oh nothing to do with me, I didn't even know about it. I just don't believe a word of it. Yeah, and I think it is worth possibly listening to a bit more of America's Defence Secretary, Secretary for War, Pete Heggseth, who gave that press conference just before uh we came on air this morning, because there is a contradiction.

between the rhetoric that he's using and the reality that much of the world can see, that you can frankly drive a truck through. Look at his explanation. Kind of an attempt at dark humour, I'm guessing. at why they think they're winning. Ballistic missile attacks against our forces down ninety percent since the start of the conflict. Same with one-way attack UAVs. Think kamikaze drones. Down ninety percent.

Now the Iranians will still shoot, we know that, but they would shoot a lot more if they could, but they can't. The last job anyone in the world wants right now? Senior leader for the IRGC or besiege. Temp jobs. All of them. And to borrow a page from Admiral Ernest King in World War Two, we've decided to share the ocean with Iran. We've given them the bottom half. Frat boy humour. Yeah, chuck another beer. Chuck another beer. Which might work better.

If he wasn't explaining essentially how how badly things have gone wrong. The the Iranians have shared the ocean. They do control the straits. That's the whole point. You might have sunk their ship. But they're mining our tankers. They have complete control. And so the idea that you try and spin this off. You know, with your epic Fury soundbite and your kind of chiseled jaw good looks of isn't it amazing what we've done? We did it so fast. That might work in an era where it was the only

Tunnel of communication. But now we see. We see what's happening, right? You can see the reality on the ground. And and I think, you know, John, the the question you started the show with, which is, you know, essentially who's winning on this?

Uh and I think the very fact that we're asking that question, but so many people are asking that question. We know, you know, audiences are asking that question, that tells you a lot, right? Because Uh in Trump's mind I'm sure when he started this war, there would have been no question three weeks in.

as to whether we would be even be asking that question. We wouldn't be, because it would be so obvious that America will be completely dominant. But the truth is, is that this is a a nuanced situation, right? And there are

sort of almost multiple wars going on at once. Like militarily, there's no question that in in the pure kind of brute facts of it, America's winning, right? They've got pretty much control of of of the air. Heggs is right, that they've degraded Iranian military capacity Substantially

But they've degraded militarily their military uh capacity substantially if like you're thinking Iran's goal is to fight a war, a sort of conventional war against another state. That's not the game they're playing right now. The game the Iranians are playing right now is basically two thold. One is to survive, which right now, internally, politically, they show every sign of so doing. In fact it looks so far like this this

war is actually insulating them i in place. And the other is to show the world that when push comes to shove, They are at least as powerful as the Americans. Why? Because they have a chokehold over the world economy, via the Straits of Hormuz, but also, frankly, their willingness

To destroy the world's energy infrastructure across the Gulf on which we in Europe in particular, but Asia and much of the rest of the world denies. So right now, we can't say that America's winning. You can make a very compelling case that at the very least Iran is holding their own, which is basically a net victory for them. And so then you have to say what would American victory look like? What to be convincing to the world?

Presumably it would mean that the Strait of Hormuz is open, oil is moving freely, and there are no further attacks. on Gulf installations of Qatar, of the UAE, of Saudi Arabia, which is not the position right now. And it's kind of interesting that uh we I heard something today from Scott Bessant, the US Treasury Secretary. And this is about Iran's kind of main port for getting rid of you know, for exporting oil, which is Hag Island in the Gulf. And listen to what he has to say.

As I said, there was a bombing campaign last week. The military assets on Carg Island were destroyed. And you know the other thing I can tell you, if you're an oil worker, you don't want to work there. So all the oil workers there are being coerced. to stay there and you know we we we will see what happens with whether that eventually becomes a a US asset. A US asset? So what, the stars and stripes are going to be flying over Cog Island? That's what he seems to be saying.

Just think about that for a second, about what that would mean. It would mean getting presumably Marines onto Karg Island. Well that's not going to happen without resistance from the Iranians. It means presumably both marines. naval vessels going up the Strait of Hormuz to get to Hag Island. Well how are you gonna do that when you can't get any shipping through and US military hasn't dared to go anywhere near it? And so things are being said.

And you think, Okay, yeah, so America's gonna take over Hog Island. It's just not I can't see America putting the thousands of troops on the ground that would be necessary for that to happen. And if you look at the latest opinion polling in America, I think it's something like sixty eight percent of Americans oppose

ground troops going anywhere near any of this. Yeah. That tells you where the public opinion I and I think what we're beginning to understand, to lose his point about that this is not a conventional war that Iran is fighting. it is being fought with guerrilla tactics, right? Much more low key but much more effective and

That is not an accidental strategy. The the the reason why Iran is proving so powerful right now lies in what's known as m the mosaic defence strategy, right? And it is a strategy that they have built up over two decades. And it focuses essentially on distributing power across local commanders, ensuring that local forces can continue operating. So when you think

Of the American military, you think totemically of the Pentagon. Saint com. Saint com. Literally, it does what it says on the tip, it's the central command. Mosaic defense is not just a concept. It is a an official military doctrine that the IRGC adopted when they saw what was happening in the Iraq War. Right? This goes back to the mid 2000s when they saw shock and awe and they went, hang on a sec.

We know we cannot win a conventional war. We're going to subdivide. We're going to break the system down into smaller cells. So every cell operates with its own nucleus independently. When one cell is taken out, the others are fine. There is a contingency, there is a strategy. And it's proving very effective right now because there isn't one unique post in the centre of Tehran that signals the war is over is is over. Is one for America. It's all been distributed.

in a much cleverer way right now because they saw this coming. Well uh and which is why um you know the Americans and the Israelis can talk about sort of decapitation strategy as much as they like and can talk about how no one wants to be the head of the RGC. I'm sure that that that's true, but ultimately

You know, it is a many headed hydra and and and it's a whole system and you can remove as many individuals as as you like. It's this is this is I think the the sort of fundamental sort of misunderstanding, which is they thought it was gonna be like Venezuela and you can remove the top. You can remove the top and then coerce.

someone more junior to do what you want. That has proven to completely be the opposite of the case. Not least because of course Iran and they have done for fifty years, have seen themselves as part of a civilizational

struggle against the West and and against America, so it's not that surprising. What scares me about this whole thing really, at the point that we're in now, is that you can just see that both sides have every incentive not to de-escalate.

But to escalate and intensify the war further. Right? Because at the at the present moment, if you think about that as sort of incentives for both for the Iranians They need to know, and all the reporting I'm seeing from Tehran is saying this, that the Iranians now consider, not least because Trump himself made it about this, that this is a fight for survival. that they either survive or they don't, and that therefore they need to send a message to the rest of the world.

That not only that they've won, but you must never come back again. They must show that there is a deterrent to the West and the United States and to Israel never to return. Because right now they think if they were to just down tools and say, Okay, we'll come to some sort of deal with the Americans, that the Israelis in particular will be back in five months or six months or twelve months. They want this to be the last war that the Western Israel ever wages against

So they have every incentive to keep the war going and the Americans for their part as well, right now. If Trump were to just say, Okay, that's enough Well n first of all they can't be sure that the Iranians would stop and they can't be sure they'll be able to reopen the strait, so they will be

humiliated and therefore it seems to me that I I'm not surprised we're hearing them talk about Hag Island, because it seems to me that they now have every incentive, or Trump has every incentive to try and do riskier and riskier things, to eke out what the whole world would consider to be a win, which is something that Trump more than any other American president will care about. But wasn't Besson also uh apart from the Kah Island, wasn't he also talking about

lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea. I mean, Jesus, I don't understand that. Are you th are you threatening is this sticking carrot? I mean I don't understand that. Well I it's very unclear what they're trying to do right now. I completely agree that the remorseless logic of where we are now is that it becomes a full scale invasion.

By US forces, if they want to prevent that from happening. That scenario that you described where Iran kind of wins, as it were, because They control the Strait of Hormuz And they've shown the world that they've shown the world that they can and that they've got the missiles to blow up the oil and gas terminals in Qatar, in Saudi, you know, UAE, wherever.

Um therefore if you really want to stop that and you want to take control of the Strait of Hormuz you're going to need to put ground forces there in substantial numbers. Exactly what Donald Trump promised wouldn't happen. He thought that he could win this war from the skies without the need for troops on the ground.

And as soon as you put troops on the ground, then the Iranians are t aiming at you and there'll be a lot of people a lot of Americans going home in body bags as a result of that. America might well win and they've got that lo the logic is that that's what they should do. But that is where you've got to. You started something and now the logic is it's either a total victory for Iran or a total victory for America and it's hard to see where the off ramp is.

where both sides think, Okay, no, fair do's we've both got what we wanted out of this. I I can't I can't see that. I can't see boots on the ground and maybe that's just because it's sort of fighting against you know, i every kind of corpus in your soul that you don't want to see that. Not least because Trump grew up in the Vietnamese.

There is also a world in which America wants to call off its dog. But Israel thinks it's on to something and we start to see the gap between what Israel thinks it can do and what uh Trump is willing to do. And Israel, I mean, has got the advantage in a way of saying, We're right in the middle of this, right? We can see it's on our doorstep. We've been dealing with Hezbollah, we've been dealing with Hamas, we've been dealing with Iran's proxies for years.

But really the stuff that we're doing in Lebanon is making a lot of people ask questions about legality, about criminality, because they can go around saying, Well, we're targeting Hezbollah. Is Hezbollah in a block of flats? Is he Hezbollah on a bridge? Is Hezbollah in a car park? Is Hezbollah on a

A road? Well if you're Israel you say, well maybe, but meanwhile you're targeting civilian infrastructure. That that constitutes I think many people would say a war crime, right? If you are if you are destroying ports and airports and roads and and d domestic residences because Hezbollah might have used it or they might be there. I mean you're you're on a hiding to nothing at that point, right? And and Trump doesn't look like He actually has any

say over what Israel's doing then. And then the Israelis will know um that this is their big chance. Because Trump ain't coming back. You know, when this is over or or presumably actually

any future American president, like I mean, you know, who knows what as a result of this is gonna happen between the Israeli US relationship as a result of all of this. You're seeing it in the Republican Party, it's been building for a while, but it's been put on steroids, you know, more and more senior Republicans in a way that, you know

Wouldn't have been pretty unthinkable for for you know starting to say, What's in it for us this this relationship? Israel keeps dragging us into these sorts of security conflicts. So, you know, Netanyahu himself of course facing elections this year, but we'll know

that this is probably his big, big chance. So he his risk calculus I think will be, you know, very, very much askew. He'll know that this is his opportunity. I mean, I th I think the position of Israel uh vis a vis public opinion in the United States is something that is a profound change.

over the past decade. And arguably you'd have thought October the seventh would be the moment when Israel would have maximum sympathy and that there would be a a unity around the terrorist threat that they face. But because of the way the war has been prosecuted in Gaza and as you say, Emily, uh kind of what's happening now in parts of central uh Beirut and not just the areas that were uh Hezbollah's stronghold.

You now have this fracturing whereby it's not just You've you've got the liberal left of American politics, the progressive you know, Zoromamdani. Who are deeply hostile towards Netanyahu and Israel and don't want to have anything to do with AIPAC, which is the great powerful Israel lobbying kind of machine in America. And on the right

You know, what's his name? Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes. Yeah. Uh exactly. The far right who've got a strong anti Semitic streak. It's one hell of a horseshoe, isn't it? And they're Nick Fuentes and Mandani. Yeah. They and they really are. Kind of saying, W why are we why are we doing this and why is Israel leading us by the nose into a conflict that we don't want to be part of?

And so you've got this fracturing of support that I think is really quite profound and if I was involved in Israeli politics I'd be deeply concerned by. It's it's funny, I mean You know, a lot of people have been talking this week, it's been coming up in American politics about whether this could be Trump's Vietnam. The the more and more particularly over the last few days that I've thought about it

In a way I think V Vietnam is is the wrong analogy. You know, there's a stronger and stronger case, particularly just thinking about it, on the basis of what we've just been discussing, in terms of there's no incentive to stop. It looks quite a lot like Ukraine. You know, it looks like Trump's Ukraine as much as Trump's Vietnam in the sense that kind of you know, you see a very similar dynamic that's played out for four years in Ukraine, which is the Russians can't be seen to stop because

What's victory? It c it cannot be seen t to have lost. And the Ukrainians, for their part, have no incentive to come to the table. because they know that they can't trust the other side, which is exactly what the Iranians feel about the Isra Israel and the US. And it has other has other all hallmarks of Ukraine as well, doesn't it? I mean there's the economic impact, particularly on energy markets, which has been actually been enormous. And the other one.

is that, you know, you went into that conflict And everyone thought that there was one side with massive s uh military superiority and it would be done. And yet here we are four years later. I'm not saying this war I don't think this war will be going on in in four years' time. But you know, there are very you know, i d the the the echoes are there in the sense that Just like Putin, Trump thought

that there would be a simple set of strategic aims and his overwhelming military superiority would be able to affect them quickly. And he underestimated the other side. I say that with no relish by the way, no truck for Iran, but it is clearly the case. Just just one data point on that is that Uh Pete Hagseth has said to Congress, We need two hundred billion dollars to fund the war in Iran, which has been going on two and a half weeks as we speak.

That is more than the total America has spent so far in supporting Ukraine. Now, obviously there's a kind of wow, hang on, does that th have they already spent that much on the war in Iran? No. But what it shows is the Pentagon calculus is that this war is going to go on for some time to come. This is not three weeks and done. This is not quickly over you know, we'll all be home by Christmas. This is going on and on and on. Yeah, and if you...

Go back to the original objective of Trump, which was to denuclearify Iran, right, to take its teeth. I mean what are we left with now? There are places in Isfahan that they could choose to target, they could choose to hit. If you get this stuff wrong, you basically allow radioactive material

into the atmosphere, right? You puncture it with water. If it hits water, you make a a whole um new problem for yourself in terms of the kind of toxicity of of of the environment and the air and all the rest of it, which can't be undone, right? Lasts as we know, decades, generations. And yes, in Congress They were asking the assessment of the intelligence community as to whether there was An imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime.

Ac yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r yw'r Until Cabbard, who is famously head of the NSA, a woman who hated Trump's Forever Wars until suddenly she found herself promoted and didn't mind them so much. It's very important to be flexible. It is very important to understand both sides.

And this is this is what he asked her and this is her response. It really takes you inside how they're all now deflecting back onto the guy at the top. Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?

The intelligence community assessed that Iran maintained the intention to rebuild and to continue to grow their nuclear enrichment capabilities. Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was a quote imminent nuclear threat Senator, the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president. timely, objective, and independent of political considerations.

You've stated today that the intelligence community's assessment is that Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated and that quote there had been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. Was it the intelligence community's assessment that, nevertheless, despite this obliteration?

There was a quote imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime. Yes or no? It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat. Okay. That is up to the other. I mean incredible, right? You're the head of the NSA and yet you've determined that there is only one person who could possibly know that. Like the omnipotent The the the messianic vision of Donald Trump is what you have to fall back on when you're his own security visitor.

To i in answer to the question, do they did they pose an immediate threat and you wanted us to say no? No fucking idea. No well no. Just no full stop. We we didn't think they posed an immediate threat. Only Donald Trump has Only Donald Trump. I mean only Donald Trump can you imagine can you imagine being part of of America like they they had the most extraordinary intelligence? community in the world right before this. And now she's at the top of it. She's like

Well, there's only one guy who'll know that. Yeah. Really? Well th they th they know. Look, the DNI are full of very clever people and they and they will know that there was no imminent threat to the United States or US interests in the area. Until America attacked. And that's the only time that the threat level went up. And we can see it playing out now. I mean it just shows that, you know, th this was

A war of choice. Now, I saw Tony Blair the other night being interviewed and saying, Every war is a war of choice. No, this was a war of choice. There was no imminent threat, and yet you chose. To launch this attack without any reference to the United Nations, without any reference to Congress, without any reference to anyone.

Every war is a war of choice. I get this sort of vision of a Thornton's chocolate box. You know. That might be nice. Tell that's the polls in nineteen things. Yeah, exactly. Right, when we come back we'll be talking about how this will uh affect British politics and Europe as well. Stay with us.

From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. There is no question. Ending the war is the quickest way to reduce the cost of living. That is my first instinct, my first priority. Is the best way to help us with petrol and fuel costs for Keir Starmer to say yes to President Trump and send the Navy to The fallout of the Iran War. Follow it live on LBC.

Listen on our friends. app or the LBC app.

The news agents. As Prime Minister, I want to speak to you simply and plainly about the grave emergency now facing our country. Jobs will be in danger and t take home pay will be less. We shall have to postpone some of the hopes and aims we have set ourselves for expansion. And for our standard of living.

We shall have a harder Christmas than we have known since the war. So that's a future Keir Starmer. No. It's that is Ted Heath, um Prime Minister in the early uh nineteen seventies. An extraordinary speech he was making, sort of national broadcast to the nation. Where he was talking about an energy price shock which started in the Middle East. Yeah. After the Yomkore War, which resulted, among other things, in the three day week in the UK, energy conservation uh measures.

Um, all seemed quite historical, uh and unlikely until this week because as a result of what we're seeing, not just with the war itself, but particularly overnight, with as we were saying at the top of the show, these devastating um attacks on uh energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Experts and analyst warnings.

that unless this war were to stop pretty soon, we would not only likely be looking at, you know, really big impacts in terms of energy prices for consumers and businesses in the UK, but such will be the demand on L and G natural gas markets around the world.

That we might end up the British government might end up having to look at rationing for petrol and for energy as well for consumers and businesses, which is not something that we have seen since t the days of Ted Heath in the nineteen seventies. If it seems far fetched, I think Listen to the airlines. They're talking about, you know, maybe flights having to be cancelled because there's going to be a shortage of aviation fuel. Look what's happening in Asia right now.

I in Thailand uh government has called on the public to reduce their use of air conditioning to save energy. And if you've been to Thailand and you know how humid it can be, that is gonna be a mighty tall order. The Philippines, many government workers are now operating on a four day week. Vietnam officials have urged employers to allow staff to work from home. So this is already real world impact now and we're only two and a half weeks in.

And so, you know, imagine if they haven't found this off ramp in the next three weeks or six weeks or eight weeks. of the situation we're going to be, the price of fuel, the limited of supplies And the impact it's gonna have on all our lives. I mean I I've got that sort of muscle memory from COVID kind of kicking in, which is At the beginning of the COVID

lockdown, shutdown, it all seemed to be happening over there. Do you remember it's like, Oh, have you seen what China's having to do? Italy. That have you seen what Rome's doing? Have you seen but now we're hearing like Thailand, well that's far away. Philippines, well that's very far away. Vietnam, well okay, we won't go to Vietnam.

But actually this stuff creeps closer quite quickly and in the last few minutes we're hearing that energy firms have pulled twenty one fixed deals, right? In other words The energy suppliers used to put on, I think, nearly forty available tariffs which are like, you're you're on this, you're fine, you're safe.

That's dropping now. That's cut in half. In Germany they're just about to announce, I think, a windfall tax or they are weighing a windfall tax as they're seeing this drive in a fuel surge. So Th there's that sort of weird and wonderful way that we assume that Europe is is slightly insulated, that we're a we're a bit quieter, a bit further away, we're a bit duller, we don't use air conditioning, we don't have typhoons, we'll be okay. We're not. You know, this is this is kind of coming

For us too, as to your your Heathcliff. Your Heathcliff. All right, Margot Robbie. Yeah. I knew there was something about him. I don't mind being compared to Jacob John, but it's all right. Jacob John. Finger on the cultural news pulse as ever. But the point is when he said that, I mean that has now become Such a sort of uh a sort of iconic clip. But when he said that

He probably felt like Boris Johnson on, you know, March the twenty third in in Covid. You were saying things you never thought you would have to say to the nation. you know, s so rapidly. And and the truth is, unfortunately, we you know, in Europe we are especially, especially exposed to all of this because we are unlike the Americans, the place that is Slight slightly more insulated from all this, ironically enough, is the United States because they have such a rough

uh domestic energy supply, partly as a result of shale and other things, they do frack and they are themselves a big supplier of of of LNG to to to us. So we are especially um exposed.

Um and there will now be this enormous bidding war essentially for the remaining natural gas components that there is. And the thing that's also difficult in terms of energy supplies of course is that the price we pay in the UK, it's one of the sort of weird things about our energy market, the price that we pay for all of our energy, whether it generated by renewables or whatever it happens to be is pegged to the price of gas.

And so we're seeing this massive volatility in the natural gas market, which is gonna have huge consequences. We've sort of seen this game of course play out before as a result of the Ukraine war. It's not quite as bad as it was. then. But you know, the problem is with energy price so shocks, as Ted Heath showed, or Ted Heath experienced, that of course energy is basically the base market

For absolutely everything everything. If you have energy price inflation which is out of control, then you basically have inflation which is out of control because it affects virtually every other market. And if there is a shortage of energy, again not something we've really experienced.

of late, then that has an even more profound effect on the economy. I mean if it's as bad as people are saying, I think a recession would be basically all but guaranteed. Interest rate increases rather than decreases. All but guarantees and inflation out of control. Should we be looking to the North Sea now? I mean like that you know, that seems to be the old elephant in the water, right? Is why are we not

Why are we not taking our own well, we know why we're not taking our own gas'cause we're trying to get to net zero. Right. But does this change everything now? Are we gonna start saying we've got all this stuff like Two minutes away, why aren't we going to yes and no. I mean, yes it sh I think it should change everything, but you're not going to get it out of the ground in you know, next week or the week after if you give licenses to the you know, these kind of oil fields.

that are there will be ten years too late. It'll be ten years too late. I think that that's the problem. that we've got that it's n there's no kind of there's not a silver bullet for us. I mean over the long term. Maybe if we were going to accept that fossil fuels would play a larger role in our economy. Or does it go the other way then? Does do does everyone say right, we've got a

We've got to take the net zero thing really seriously'cause frankly that is the cheapest way of ever doing energy ever again. I mean the p I mean obviously again the problem is is the the the lag time. And and the thing is is with this stuff it's not it

You know, we often see this as as they're in competition with each other. It shouldn't be either or. I mean the fact of the matter is is that, you know, we are gonna be reliant on uh oil and gas for a long time. The climate change commission themselves say even by twenty fifty we're gonna still be using a great deal of uh oil and gas.

I mean I do think just in terms of the you know, the the government have been relatively kind of insulated politically f on this because of their opposition to the to the Iran war. Interesting to see how that long that lasts. On a few discrete reasons, I think the question of the North Sea will actually become

a bigger political issue, not because it will help anything immediately, but it does, you know, with so much hostility and particularly in the press to Ed Millerband already. He this is his signature energy policy, and there will be plenty of people I don't think and it's not entirely

unreasonable who say, you know, medium term, why are we not exploiting every last drop of oil and gas we can, not least because we can generate tax revenues from it that we could invest in renewable energy. And then just of course as well. I if we are heading into a political world where that is a bit like the early nineteen seventies and this conflict goes on And we are looking at a a massive energy price shock and we are looking at potential rationing or conservation.

That politically takes you into a whole new place. And so far the European powers have, I think probably wisely up to now, been very, very reluctant to get involved, very, very reluctant to commit any military hardware in an effort to keep the straits clear, if that is possible to do. At the moment the public support them on that. If we are looking at energy price shocks and conser and and and having to conserve energy shortages as a result of the straits not being clear.

I wonder how long that will last and whether there will be a demand from European populations for their governments to try and do something about it. I suppose if we're making the comparison between what happened in seventy three after the Yom Kippur walk. You were going into winter.

And now this is coming as we're kinda going into spring and summer where we will use less electricity. We are not dependent on air conditioning in this country. The lights don't need to go you know, go on until late in the evening. It will not be although we buy this stuff in advance of course, so we'll be buying it. Which I did as a teenager. Also I mean I just kinda w But it's also to do with I mean, isn't it t if I've got this right, it's to do with

the hold up of of everything, right? It's it's th we're talking about container ships. Like if if you don't have oil It's not just you don't have oil to drive a car, you don't have you don't have the means of getting drugs from one place to another, you don't have the means of transporting things from one place to another, you can't get

you you can't do your flights, you can't do your you can't get container ships from one part of the world to another. I mean, you know, you can't build a house, you can't Do your infrastructure because all the materials are are stuck at sea or stuck in another country. I mean that's why it is it's more like COVID from that perspective, because you've got this chain of

Of the the sort of the broken chain of procurement, right? And I suppose the difference as well, the sort of unhappy unhappiness for ourselves, um, in by comparison to the early seventies of course is the reason why That was a problem is because the oil producing economies of the Middle East stopped exporting to us, right? Because of their of our association with Israel and and what happened in the Yom Kippur War. Which was famously when Iran stepped in and charged

An extraordinary amount of I mean, Iran went through the roof economically at exactly that time because nobody nobody else was exporting and they've they found a way of of putting the prices of oil up. But the point is in the end they could lift the embargo and then normal supplies resume. The difference with this is that obviously this is a war which is itself targeting

the energy infrastructure of the region, which cannot easily be rebuilt. You can't just turn the taps back on because that infrastructure will have been destroyed. So potentially the kind of a l the the the shadow of this could be far longer than even what we saw in the early seventies. Quasi wartime Prime Minister, but you can sort of imagine that's what he morphs into now.

If we are talking about a real energy shock and shortages and, you know, whether that a affects food supply chains, a la COVID at the start of this, I mean I you know, I would say compared to Boris Johnson, he's probably better suited to that sort of

serious minded, stern, these are tough times we're all going through, this isn't of our making. Um Starmer is Starmer is yeah, much better suited to this than uh Johnson. You know you've still got the whole question of the Gulf in the middle of this, right? Which is I mean Qatar, UAE, you know, d Jibia uh Abu Dhabi all all all the sort of the Gulf Emirate States, I mean they th they exist on this stuff.

And they have grown rich on this stuff and they are being targeted now, right? I mean that that is that potentially implodes. One of the fastest growing economic hubs of the entire world. trading company in the UAE, Mubadla. I mean they're tr it's it's about life after oil. It's about diversifying. Why you know look at Emily you wrote a piece about it, about the Saudi.

G growing tourism industry. A way that's so old fashioned stability, but you know sunshine, all those great things. But also who's gonna go there now? Right. You've got I mean Saudi, you know, has based its whole economic model On can we get the best footballers? Yes. Can we get the best art? Yes. Can we get the best theatre? Yes. Can we get the best chefs? Yes.

Why? Because they have an enormous amount of money from oil revenue to basically buy the best in the world and transport it all to the desert. How are they getting the World Cup? How are they getting the Winter Olympics? So suddenly this sort of you know That that was where it was all going on. I was there this time last year, right? February of last year, I was in Saudi. And I remember thinking, this place has.

has so it you know, all the stuff that surrounded over Koshodi and the murder and all the questions about human rights, it was kind of like Yeah. We'll push that to one side'cause look what we're doing now. We're talking about Trump losing control. We've never been in control, right? We've been buffeted by both

you know, Gulf states and their power and North American power. And the scary thing in particular of course is this that that might be fine, a bit actually again to compare with the with the seventies. You know, Ted Heath was going into that and we were going into that

You know, having had some decades in the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties of of you know relative stability, you know, actually strong years of of economic growth. The thing for the British state now and for the British government is that we have had now a decade or so of

economic shock after economic shock after economic shock. You know, whether it goes back to the to the crash of O eight, self imposed with with Brexit, Covid, Ukraine war, energy price shock there. The British state I mean, for a start, we will be going into this crisis which could be as bad as any of them. So much more indebted, with so much less capacity for the British state potentially to be able to respond

to this crisis having b basically been battered, battered by that decade of sort of perma crisis time and time and time again. So, you know, I think you know, going into th into this particular I've just got a push notice from the Financial Times. Stocks and bonds hammered as investors pricing protracted energy shock.

What a lot to look forward to. We need a solution. You can do that tomorrow. Have you got a solution tomorrow? I I'll you know what, I'm I'm working on it. Someone some someone stopped me when I was working this morning saying have you got any good news for us? And I said come back tomorrow.

The news agents. Before we go, um the Tories launched their uh local election uh campaign this morning. Uh James Cleverly. Shadow Housing Secretary on stage whipping up the crowd, and he had a video that he was going to play. Let's just have a listen. But just in case anyone has forgotten just how good she is. let's just remind ourselves with a quick look at her best bits. I gonna give it a s I'm gonna give it one more one more second. Forget the video.

Genuinely, I have a lot of sympathy for anyone who tries to queue up a video. How many times have we been at a news night leaving party where the run VT the video did not work? But I would say don't Set it up on such a cliffhanger that you are made to fail. We have got sympathy, but don't

Let's have a look at all her best bits. I mean her best bits. We'll never see Kami's best bits. We'll be back tomorrow. We'll see you then. Bye bye. Aye aye aye. Bye for now. This has been a Global Player Original Production.