Can Andy Burnham's revolution fix Britain?

If burnoism means anything, it means radical change is coming. Welcome to the newsagents.

We want to hear what the brand new thing is, and we want to be sort of optimistic about the brand new thing that is coming at us. But I still think even beside that, There was a way that he spoke that got to the nub of what a lot of people in this country would agree with, which is that The country has had a terrible decade. It has been broken since Brexit, and in his words, broken since the financial crash. That is twenty years on a plate, he said, in which it hasn't really worked.

And at that point he pivoted and said, The reason why Manchester has worked, the reason why my policies, this place has worked, is because we've made everyone face the same way. That was his his line. Everyone make face the same way and move forward in the same direction. And he set up this idea of Westminster and Whitehall being constantly in conflict as opposed to collaborating to get things done. And we often talk about that, you know, the the very

Shape of the House of Commons set up in an adversarial manner, set up to have the sword's length between your opponents. So you are literally fighting those on the opposite side of the bench. And I guess This is where it becomes a really interesting question for whatever Burnham envisages happens next.

When you're just talking about Manchester, when you're talking about one place, your enemy, as it were, is everywhere else in the country. Your enemy is can we succeed without being bossed around by Westminster or the centre of power or Downing Street, whatever it is. When you are that centre of power, Does it work to start sharing things out and expect every single region to be able to do that to the same extent?

It's not a central kind of main platform address. It's about people who are interested in government and the electoral system and the way councils should interact with the centre and all that sort of stuff. And yet Andy Burnham has put at that at the absolute epicentre of his offering. And the epicentre of his offering is that there should be no epicenter. That the that that Westminster itself should start handing out power

should start devolving power to the regions, that there should be a number ten of the north. And we heard him saying that that will be the kind of thing that inspires Britain to start delivering

in a way that it hasn't for people before. And I suppose what is the political gamble in this is that, you know, if you're listening wherever in the UK and you're worried about your mortgage or your kids' education or whatever it happens to be the the bread and butter concerns of people, are they thinking the problem is government and the way we are organised?

And that's why I think it's really interesting to say, No, no, this is so fundamental, this will change people's lives and it's an argument he's having. And then you've got a bigger question, which I think we should address is does devolution work?

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um to get to Manchester s to sort s to feel that we're at the centre of power, then that is not gonna go down quite as well. Which is why his line was so important afterwards. You know, this is not just about the North and South, this is about The south west, the east, uh you know Scotland well exactly.

I think there is something really important about localism. To your question of whether people feel um that the way they're governed is important, I think the same applies to government as applies to local journalism actually, which is that

People have more trust when they can see it with their own eyes on their doorstep. You can see if things are working. You can see if your council's working. You can see if things are improving in your neighborhood. In the same way that if you have local reporters, you start to trust the news more because you actually relate to the stuff that they're telling you because you can connect it to your own lives. So I think that that is not a stupid place to start rewiring the state. I. this whole idea

of of localism is what actually brings people's trust back to government. I think where it gets complicated is when you say, well, The wider picture of devolution so far in the UK has not always been a great one, right? If you look at the health outcomes in Wales, which was devolved, they're terrible. Same in Scotland. They have been bad. They have been behind Westminster they've been behind, you know, the rest of England where health is much more centralized.

And you have not had a positive outcome from devolution, and I suppose that is also what you're opening up. You're opening up the fact that you give people more power and some people will use it brilliantly and some people will use it terribly, right?

you had the individual states trying to cut their own deals with suppliers of PPE. It just happened that the May the that the governor of Maryland, I think it was a guy called Larry Hogan, who was married to a Korean She had good contacts in Korea and suddenly this Korean airplane is landing at Baltimore Airport.

chocker block full of PPE that no other state could get their hands on. And you had this auction taking place where individual states were driving up the price of PPE because they were bidding against each other. To get their hands on it. Now that is the weakness of different regions, different areas with their own elected mayors competing against each other.

In Britain we've always tended to have a very different attitude towards government than America. I think it was uh Ronald Reagan who said there are no more there's no more dread sentence in the English language than I am from the government. I'm here to help. And of course, you know, in Britain we say, What's the government going to do about this? And in America they say, This is nothing to do with the government. I think we have become

Our view has changed. We certainly want solutions, but we have less and less faith in Westminster being able to deliver that. And therefore, as you say, place becomes important.

where you live, your community and how it's represented. And I think that is what Andy Burnham is tapping into. I think that the the ambition is massively admirable. I think the reality of you know how you deliver this when you've got decades and decades of kind of you know institutional centralization. Turning that around is gonna be bloody difficult and does he want his time in government as Prime Minister swallowed up

with turf fights over who's going where, which jobs are being redeployed, which bits of the civil service are gonna be going to somewhere else, uh all of that. That is very exhausting work.

It is at the heart of what people are looking for for any kind of politics. So I I wish him well. Um I don't think he's an Arsenal supporter though.

one of the most probably the most devolved country on earth. They have different drink drinking ages there. So depending on which state you're in, you know, different drinking ages, taxes, minimum wage. Healthcare systems, even languages, you know, you go into certain provinces and clearly it's French French rather than um English. The Swedes

do their NHS entirely devolved. So there is no federal health care at all, right? You you you can get different healthcare and different healthcare outcomes because it's all managed by regions. So I guess the thing is we're saying is yes, it sounds really energizing, it sounds really exciting and and

And in a way I'm sort of full of admiration. We've been saying for a long time, uh, on this show, we kind of just want at this point somebody to do something with a big idea and sort of heft behind it. So I I'm sort of full of admiration for a big idea. But I guess w we do have to accept then that while some things will improve, other things Will get worse, right? Because that is what happens when you devolve power. You you don't have the same standard everywhere else.

with Kemi Badenok, for example? Is he gonna work with her over social care proposals, which is something that he tried to do when he was last a cabinet minister and ha you know, thought he had the back of your Gordon Brown and It didn't happen. Does he return to that? Does he return to welfare reform where Kemi Badenok offered to work with Keir Starmer and Keir Starmer rejected it?

Does he call Kemi Badenok's bluff and says, Yeah, come on, let's sit around a table and deal with the problems that have been plaguing British society for decades and we have failed to grapple with. And I think that that would be a really interesting area to see what Burnham does. And I thought there was something else that he did that was interesting. And maybe this is niche and maybe this is just us as journalists.

he didn't take any journalist questions. He wanted this speech to be about what he wanted to talk about. He didn't want to be distracted by one of us standing up and saying, Who's gonna be your Chancellor? Do you think Donald Trump's a wanker? Or whatever it was. He wanted to stick to his topics and he said, No, not gonna take any journalist questions today. Now you can't do that forever.

But I think that you know, there was a seriousness of purpose and a sense of self confidence that I can do things the way I want to do them, which I don't think Keir Starmer ever displayed that much.

parallel sort of power base of the incoming. I mean it's so strange. You have to kind of stop for a minute and say when he stands there in Manchester welcoming all the MPs he said were in the audience. they have now sort of had to do what? Le leave leave their their jobs or leave their le leave whatever they were doing

in Westminster and sort of become part of the audience for Burnham because they need to be seen now. They need to be part of the new shape of this government. I mean it is sort of it's bewildering both how kind of smoothly this is all happening and in a funny way how how slowly it's happening. And I think Frankly, it suits both of them that it has been sort of measured out like this, because I think Starmer probably still wants

you know, to finish his work. And I think Burnham is not quite ready um to be inside number ten. I mean, there is a lot of stuff that still needs to be done, but we are still in this sort of interregnum which feels Slightly bizarre.

Frustratingly for us, he's not announcing who his Chancellor will be or who the Defence Secretary will be or you know whether he's bringing back David Miliband as well, probably will. Um you know, all these things he's not going to answer just yet. He's got a time to think, but it is an extraordinary period. I suppose the bigger question is What does he do next year or even later this year if he's got a big bounce in the polls and people are saying, Go on, go for a snap election.

One other thing about all of this in a wider political context is it also seems to be at a time when reform is having all sorts of problems and Nigel Farage did that round of interviews, which were a disaster, trying to explain away his five million quid bung. And you just wonder and I heard it over the weekend from various Labour people, well, maybe a general election.

is not waiting until twenty twenty nine. Maybe it could come even sooner with a big burn and bounce, particularly given the agenda that he has sort of s sketched out today.

Um, two things that are important to bear in mind and this is going back to polling, some of which is is pretty old, right? But we have seen transitional prime ministerships before. One was Theresa May's uh into Boris Johnson, one was Gordon Brown's from uh Tony Blair, and there is a big question when this happens. As to the timing.

Of a general election in terms of solidifying your own mandate to the country. Now, if Andy Burnham had come in and said, I'm gonna do exactly what Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves did, but hopefully I'm gonna do it a bit faster. I think that that question goes away a bit. It's it's further down the road. If Andy Burnham comes in and says the whole thing hasn't worked for ten years.

The whole thing hasn't worked for twenty years. The whole thing hasn't worked because it's been Westminster focused rather than Manchester focused and I know what works because I've done it in Manchester. And I'm going to literally devolve power to every corner of the UK.

It is a radical enough suggestion that And bear in mind he said he he he sees it as a ten year project. It's a radical enough suggestion for him probably to have to think he does need to get this signed off by the country. So then the question is. Do you wait or do you go early? Prime Ministers tend to be, transitional prime ministers tend to be at the height of their power, in polls, in the polling terms, within three months of taking off.

Now that is scarily short, right? If he if he comes into power at the end of July, we are talking about the height of his power being probably Exactly. So so so if it's if it's within three months I think that's pretty unlikely. I don't think anyone can contemplate an election, genuinely, in October. That sounds crazy.

But actually, if the polls respond in the way that historically we have seen, which is that you lose more power the longer you stay in in that first year, then probably he is thinking about something fairly close to next. Spring, right?

And i it all looks certain for Neil Kinnock to become the next Prime Minister at the next general election. And suddenly the Tories get rid of Thatcher, John Major becomes the Prime Minister, he gets rid of the poll tax and people think and he and they and you know, for a moment the arguments over Europe Subside and people think, well, we've got what we wanted now. And so John Murray goes to the the ninety two election and against all the odds.

pulls off a victory, a clear took conservative majority. Now obviously it all started to fall apart after that, but that was a moment where you change the leader and you change the dynamic and suddenly John Major is riding much higher in the polls. general election and wins it. And I'm sure that there will be people around Andy Burnham who if it you know, if there is this bounce and of course our politics is very different today than it was

In ninety two or twenty ten, when we've got s you know, when we've got the Greens now, we've got Reform now, we've got Restore now, you know, we've got all these parties that are now kind of vying for power. It is perfectly possible that something comes along and that Andy Bernon thinks there is an opportunity.

um, because, you know, that would be the the kind of the s the the strong thing to do. And I said, Really? Like would you? Would you do that? And he went, No, no, I'd probably chicken out And so I think there was a sort of moment of honesty where you kind of go It's it's very easy to tell everyone else what looks

sort of obvious from the sidelines. I mean Boris Johnson, you know, famously got his snap election and a big majority. Yes, he was up against Corbyn. I'm sure that played a big part in the sort of choice that people were making at the time. But he secured that with a very quick election. He he took over in July and we went to the polls on the I think it was the thirteenth of December twenty nineteen, right? So

within what's that, four months? Five months? I mean with with a very short lead time into that election which sort of, you know, scared the bejesus out of all of us, right? In the depths of winter, still managed to do it. I mean I guess the question is you're trying to work out. why you are asking people to go to the polls. It's all very well us sitting here sort of politically going, oh well it would shore him up, you know, it would make him stronger.

But you have to have a reason to go to the polls. You have to have a question for the electorate. Boris Johnson had a very simple, taught question, which is do you want to get Brexit done? And frankly, the phrasing of that was Well we want to get Brexit behind us, whether that's done or just out of the news or just never talked about again. It worked as a slogan because it was the thing that people wanted to see done.

What is the question that Andy Burnham takes to the country, which is not just, could you make me feel good about my own position? Because that's not enough of a question to ask the electorate.

But I never said I'd promise them. And that is you know, Boris Johnson was an MP. You know, all the other people we've talked about, Theresa May, You know, John Major.

'Cause he's already there. So the question is what does he what does he take to the voters that makes them feel like yes yes to Labour, yes to Burnham?

you know, bank balance, how is this going to affect my kids' education and their prospects? And that's where they they will want specifics. And I just don't think that Andy Burnham is at that stage yet. Or if y uh you know, maybe there is a blueprint, maybe there are ideas that have been sketched out, but I think that, you know, this has all happened unbelievably fast.

I mean really unbelievably fast that he is now the the next Prime Minister.

you know, last week there has been an inexorability to this. It just feels what's that lovely phrase? Slowly and then all at once. And now we're at the all at once. To go back to your point which was about um sort of consensual politics, I do think there's something really interesting uh uh afoot here as well, which is that Kemi Badenok offered Keir Starmer her support with welfare reform.

I mean, famously, the welfare reform that never happened, arguably. The th the welfare reforms that that sunk Kirst Arma because they they didn't take off. I wonder whether she would be as forthcoming with a Burnham Premiership. And I say that because there was this kind of unspoken secret, I think.

between the two main parties, when reform seemed to be such a threat to both of them, that the Tories and Labour could do better by working together to prove to the electorate that the old parties could s could still get things done, that they could still be effective, that they shouldn't let Far m reform and Farage in the door.

I now think that it's a very different landscape and people have, you know, predicted the death of Farage and his parties many, many times. So I'm not gonna sort of go down that level. But I do genuinely think to your point about the interviews last week, he was spooked by that. He is still waiting to find out from the parliamentary standards.

Commissioner, whether he has to forego a period as MP and if If they come if if it comes back against him, if it finds against him that he shouldn't have received this five million pound donation without declaring it, then it is possible even that he could face a recall in his own constituency in Clack.

And so that changes, I think, again. Yeah, when we were saying a few months ago uh and reform was l riding high in the polls, it's a long way to a general election. And I think that, you know, this is a marathon for Nigel Farage, not a sprint. It was really interesting that David Bull, who was the chairman of reform until relatively recently, had these words of advice for Mr Farage.

um go from that. I mean, we are we are probably getting way ahead of ourselves, but the reason that we're raising this is just that Daniel Greenberg, the parliamentary commissioner, Is going to come back within the next few days. And so this could become quite a live issue over the weeks ahead. And I think all this will play into the bigger picture of What do the Tories think about?

an early election, Kemi Badenok was very cautious not to call for on because she's doing pretty well. You know, she is seeing her fortunes, if not her party's fortunes, change. She is starting to really make headway, but she doesn't want to go too early. You know, she'd much prefer to wait for the burn and bounce to be over, presumably, and on the way down, and then go, right, I'm here, I'll pick up the pieces.

Forget Clacton, but around the country, with people thinking I'm gonna revote reform now because Farage is back in the race. He commands an enormous amount of public support. I think that the reform party, if it is Richard Tice. does not look as anything like as big without him.

unveils his thoughts on what should happen about indefinite leave to remain in this country. And it was not Home Office policy. So Shebana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, says, He's gotta be sacked. You can't do things like that and Kirstama says, Well I'm not gonna sack him. And you're just thinking, what is going on in the government right now?

that this is a paralysis, right? You can't have a spending commitment, you can't have a policy, you can't really have an announcement. because it could all be undone within two weeks. So what are they actually doing? And I guess the answer is, well, arguing with each other. I mean, you know, is Mike Tapp right to say he wants a change to Shabana's um

immigration policy. Well maybe he's thinking that she won't be his boss for long'cause she's gonna move somewhere else and maybe he's thinking, well I might come in and get that job so I want to lay out, you know, my my claims to what it should look like early. He writes for the time, she doesn't sign it off. And you've got this sort of alrighty almighty row. But it but in essence, this is just I think the mechanic.

Of what is going on anyway in the ether, which is sorry, who's in charge and what is gonna happen.

And then to say I Shibana Mahmood says right, he's gotta be fired, and then the Prime Minister says no, it's fine. And what you've got is people just laying out their own stall. They're just thinking uh not about the collective of the government. They're thinking about what's my next job gonna be? I could get a promotion here. I think Andy Bernard might like this. So why don't I s lay out my, you know, my frilly Uh underwear and see if Andy Burnham's attracted to it.

I kind of like we we sort of chatted it over together and we were like, That doesn't sound right and how could he come back in and would he really be the right one for the job and actually over the last sort of three days or so that has started to sort of take sh shape. It feels a bit stronger.

that he could come back in the cabinet, maybe not as foreign secretary, maybe as Europe minister, sort of a reinvigorated Europe minister trying to help Burnham sort of shape a a sort of post Brexit or a m you know, a a sort of EU um role. for relations um with Europe.

I I I've also and I should say this this comes with a big caveat because Andy Burnham very sensibly didn't take any questions at the end, as you pointed out, because he didn't want to be asked who his Chancellor was. But inevitably those conversations are still going on.

Um and so everything that we're saying at the moment comes with huge caveats, which is that he is probably still making up his mind and maybe the people that are the runners and riders have not actually signed up to anything yet because they're still waiting to hear from him. But From somebody who was who is right at the centre of things, I've heard a few interesting rumblings which I'll run through and you can sort of treat them as you choose. Lucy Powell, could we go into education?

Um, Louise Haig, very likely to be Chief Secretary to Andy Burnham, and that Rachel Reeves has kind of accepted that she won't be. in the Chancellor job anymore, uh you know, m finally, and and is now lobbying to go to trade. The big question of the Chancellor Still the most central one, still up in the air, but you know Could actually be looking more like

Ed Millerband. I I think they've been right through the houses, you know, we've been through the kind of Shabanama mood, we've been through the uh um Pat McFadden, we've been through the John Healy, but actually there is an argument which says if Andy Burnham works closest to the with Ed Miliband and he is at the centre of his policy thinking, then you just go, fuck it. Let's get on with it.

You know, I've spoken to cabinet ministers who have had conversations with Andy Burnham, who have had been given some reassurance about their role in the next government. So, you know, we may not have firmly tied down who's getting what job.

But clearly Andy Burnham is preparing. The question of the Chancellorship I think is fascinating because I'm speaking to people who are mounting a rearguard action that says if the Britain's greatest problem is its borrowing costs Then the best thing you could do is to keep Rachel Reeves in place as Chancellor. No, no, I I but I but I also I'm also hearing that, you know, because there was a the backlash from some public sector union.

About Ed Miliband becoming the next Chancellor because of his stance on net zero and oil and gas. There is now also uh a lot of people's talking up Ed Milleband. And as for David Milleband, I think distinctly yes. And I'm, you know, uh kind of previously, you know, Miliband, David Milleband has sort of said, Oh no, it's you know, I'm I'm in New York, this is my future, I'm staying in New York.

the you know, the band back together, whether it's James Pinnell, Ed Miliband, David Miliband, um you know, Alan Milburn who he sort of tipped a again in his speech today, who did all the work on on neat Are you actually recreating something that feels like the sort of the brown cabinet without brown?

He was talking about the moment from the financial crash and he talked about Brexit. Those were the moments when Britain stopped working for the British people. So it's like he'd refined he thought oh Christ that forty years. That covers the period when I was I'll drop that bit'cause that that says that the you know the the the period from nineteen ninety seven to twenty ten when there were three successive Labour governments was a total failure. I better wipe that one from the memory book.

It's only eighteen years of failure that we're dealing with.