Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of Corporate Sales for the UK, Ireland, and Switzerland (FX), to explore the outlook for the Japanese yen following Japan’s Upper House election and the recent US-Japan trade agreement. With a potential policy shift on the horizon, could a hawkish Bank of Japan stance in the coming week give the JPY a boost?
After another week of Trump-driven financial market volatility, attention now turns to Japanese politics. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, sits down with Chris Jakubowski, Head of Hedge Fund FX Sales, to discuss Sunday’s upper house election and its potential implications for the markets next week and beyond. Upper house elections in Japan are typically low-impact events, but this one feels different. Could we see renewed JGB volatility? What mi...
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, takes us through a series of topics as a mid-month update: from tariffs, to the recent softer than expected inflation report, the optically better than expected NFP jobs data, and the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Recently, George and the team pushed back their next Fed cut to September from July where they still believe that neutral rates are closer to the low 3% levels versus the current low 4% levels. They are also viewing the...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst from London, discuss the FX market's reaction to President Trump’s recent tariff announcements.. They also explore whether rising political uncertainty in Japan ahead of the Upper House elections is playing a role in the yen’s recent weakness.
As markets await President Trump’s announcement on updated reciprocal tariff rates following months of negotiations, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, speaks with Julie Ellert, Head of FX FraBelux Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for FX markets. With inflation in Japan remaining elevated, they also explore how the Bank of Japan might respond in the months ahead. Could another rate hike be on the horizon? With inflation coming i...
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, reviewed the economic backdrop and market sentiment heading into another critical week in the US. George made a comprehensive case that the jobs data will likely continue to soften with the unemployment rate notably moving much higher, maybe starting with the June NFP data release. George concludes by recapping his monthly report and noting the irony that uncertainty is lifting on the policy front in DC, yet the consumer is likely tapped ...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst in London, unpack the factors behind the sharp reversal in the US dollar after it hit new year-to-date lows. Is this just a pause in the downward trend, or the start of a broader recovery? Tune in for insights on what could shape the USD’s direction in the week ahead. Share your thoughts in the comment section.
Following some tentative signs of easing risks in the Middle East, which have helped weaken the US dollar, Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research EMEA & International Securities, talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland, and Swiss FX Corporate Sales, about the potential implications for the US dollar and the financial markets. Derek also highlights some key takeaways from the numerous central bank meetings this week, including the Fed and the BoJ.
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recapped an action-packed month full of uncertainty. Weak US fundamentals with the jobs data remaining mixed while inflation continues to come in softer suggesting that the Fed is behind the curve. George then previewed our expectations for the June FOMC meeting where he notes that the US data has deteriorated enough that the Fed may use this meeting to pivot towards a more dovish stance to gain flexibility to ease at future FOMC meetings....
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the recent USD sell-off ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Will the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran help to support the USD after hitting year-to-date lows?
Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for Malaysia's economy and the ringgit amid lingering global trade uncertainties. Lloyd also highlights that Malaysia's economy is in a domestic-led investment upcycle, which could help cushion the impact of trade headwinds and support ringgit stability.
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales (FX), to discuss FX market developments over the past week. It has been a mixed week for the USD but will the weakening trend remain place?
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest developments in US macro and markets which was covered in the last monthly titled "The Great Whiplash". George highlights that the constant policy shifts, especially on the trade front, has led to tight trading ranges - even as we sit at local highs in both stocks and rates. Given the constant news flow challenges, and that it pays to be tactical in this environment, George previews the upcoming NFP jobs report...
Following another week of debate over President Trump’s trade tariffs, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, speaks with Shan Husain from FI FX Sales about the latest developments. They discuss legal uncertainties around reciprocal tariffs, the impact on the US dollar, and concerns about confidence in US assets. Derek also looks ahead to next week’s ECB meeting and growing sentiment in Europe that the euro could strengthen its role as a global res...
Lloyd Chan, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research Asia, speaks this week about the outlook for the Indonesian rupiah following the 2 April US Liberation Day and last week’s Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Lloyd also highlights that Indonesia's economy had slowed even before US Liberation Day and the BI could cut the policy rate one more time in Q3, possibly in September.
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, speaks with Abdul-Ahad, Currency Analyst, to discuss what has triggered renewed selling over the past week. Will the loss of confidence in the US and Japanese debt markets have a spillover impact on the FX market?
Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Jack Greenslade in FX Sales about the move in financial markets this week following the US-China trade war de-escalation announced on Monday. Derek explains why the dollar gain petered out quickly but also highlights the huge buying of UST bonds by private foreign investors. So even though foreign central banks might be selling, the buying by private investors easily offsets that. Derek and Jack also dis...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, discuss what has been driving the FX market over the past week and helping to lift the USD. Will USD gains on the back on recent trade deal optimism and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates prove sustainable?
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas previews our expectation ahead of the May FOMC meeting. We believe that the Fed will skip for a third time in the cycle and have a difficult time threading the needle and making everyone happy at this upcoming meeting. If the Fed elects to stay on the sidelines to wait for data to confirm that further rate cuts are needed, they might realize that they will come too late. If the Fed messaging comes across as more hawkish than markets would ...
After a stronger than expected US jobs report and increased speculation of an easing in trade tensions, Derek Halpenny. Head of Research Global Markets EMEA and International Securities sits down with Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland & Swiss Corporate FX Sales to discuss financial market conditions and the renewed depreciation of the US dollar. Derek also looks to next week and discusses the FOMC and BoE meetings and the fallout for the yen following the BoJ meeting this week.
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas recaps key market themes that have played out in markets during the epic month of April, drawing parallels to other historical market events. Additionally, he touches on fears of dedollarization, weak soft data, the question of when this will finally filter through to the hard data, and how the Fed could deal with slowing economic growth. To cap it off he notes what else to look out for as month end approaches with key labor data, macro da...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about the volatile price action for USD/JPY over the past week. Will the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting derail the current downward trend for USD/JPY? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
This week’s Global Markets podcast takes place against a backdrop of financial market turmoil with signs of a building crisis of confidence in US assets. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Chris Jakubowski Head of FI FX Sales about what needs to happen to halt the slide in confidence. There are certain actions that would help but none seems that likely. Derek and Chris also discuss the prospects for JPY and the BoJ’s stance in the midst o...
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, walks us through the latest tariff developments and potential implications for the economy and markets. As a reminder, a palooza is informally viewed as a large frenzied event, thus it’s apt to call this latest version a “tariff-palooza” as markets got jolted by the larger than expected and broad-based announcement on “Liberation Day.” Although the approach the administration has taken a tougher stance on fiscal spending and trade negotia...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Jack Greenslade of UK, Ireland, Switzerland and Middle East Corporate Sales, discuss the impact of President Trump’s tariff plans for the FX market. Will an escalating trade war lead to further strength for safe haven currencies such as the yen? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The US dollar is weaker this week against most G10 currencies ahead of the key reciprocal tariff announcement on 2nd April. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Shan Husain Institutional FX Sales EMEA about how the markets are positioned ahead of the announcement and what we can expect in the days and weeks following. Derek suggests financial markets are possibly overly optimistic about the potential impact. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Seiko Kataoka-Fisher, Director from Japanese Customer Sales for EMEA in London, discuss the latest policy updates from the Fed, BoJ, BoE. How is heightened uncertainty related to President Trump's policy plans impacting central bank communication? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
George Goncalves, Head of Macro Strategy in the Americas, recaps what has been driving market volatility as well as where he thinks broader markets may go in the short-run. Additionally, he goes over what to expect at the March FOMC meeting where the Fed likely conveys a neutral message as they are "not in a hurry" to cut rates or get worried about the recent market vol and financial conditions tightening.
The dollar is ending this week on a weaker footing and Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes Head of UK, Ireland & Switzerland FX Corporate Sales about the drivers in the FX markets and looks ahead to the numerous central bank meetings taking place on Wednesday and Thursday. Derek hones in on the BoJ and the yen and highlights the key focuses of the BoJ meeting for the markets and how JGB yields are an important influence of ...
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Shan Husain, Institutional FX Sales discuss the impact of the significant policy shift taking place in Germany. Why has the USD failed to strengthen in response to President Trump’s tariffs this week? Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
