Is Cuba about to launch three hundred attack drones against the United States. Ace Axios reporter Mark Kuputo broke the big story, and he joins us at the top of this hour to explain the threat from the communist dictatorship just ninety miles away. Plus, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massey has angered President Trump and is now in the fight for his political life. What is happening in the most expensive Republican primary for Congress in history. We were on the
ground in the Bluegrass Straight state over the weekend. We have exclusive coverage from the very rally that had President Trump doubling down on the race. Pollster Richard Barriss will stop by to break down all the numbers. It's all next to the Matt Gates Show. Let's do this.
We're shaking up Washington, d C. We're breaking the fever.
Do you haven't watch this guy on television. It's like a machine.
He's great.
Matt Gates.
As we join you this evening, Axios reports a chilling development just ninety miles south of Flora. US intelligence says Cuba has acquired more than three hundred military grade drones and has discussed using them against military assets in Guantanamo Bay, against vessels in the Florida Straits, and possibly even against Key West. And before you go thinking Key West is
a soft target, it is not. The eight square mile island is home to two major military installations, Naval Air Station Key West, which is home to some very combat ready F eighteen super hornets, and Jaiadic South, which is a key intelligence and monitoring node for all kinds of intere addictions throughout the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. I've been there and personally observed the mission. It is robust. Key West is not just some playground for fantasy fest
and vacation and gay people. It is a hardened US military asset, and that really aligns with history. Key West was a key Union stronghold during the Civil War, and.
There were a lot of Brits.
There during the Revolutionary War chasing down French pirates. Now, the drones at issue in this story reportedly came from Russia and Iran, two regimes already using drone warfare extensively to menace US interests around the world. This is exactly the kind of threat that Trump administration has been warning about America's enemies no longer need expensive big aircraft carriers
or even fighter jets to threaten the homeland. They just need cheap, attriatable drones, and hostile regimes would have a potential launch pad close to our shores if Cuba allows it now. CIA director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba last week and delivered a very direct warning the island cannot be allowed to serve as a staging ground for America's adversaries or the adversaries of peace in the Western Hemisphere.
Cuba is long believed to have been the exporter of so much of the disruption that has seen the political left obtained some strongholds in places like Ecuador, Nicola, and Venezuela. Now we also expect action this week from the US Department of Justice. The indictment of former Cuban leader Raoul Castro is likely to be unsealed Wednesday. Raoul is the brother of Fidel Castro and ordered the killing of the much famed Ermano cel Rascate or Brothers to the Rescue.
These brothers were Cuban expats based in Miami. They would deploy small boats and aircraft to rescue Cubans who were fleeing the Communist dictatorship via the dangerous shark infested waters of the Florida Straits. The Brothers made hundreds of daring rescues, saving thousands of lives that otherwise would have been lost to these torrent waters. They've long been rumored to have been aided by the CIA during many of these missions, and on February twenty fourth, nineteen ninety six, they were
shot down on the orders of the Castro Brothers. Justice for the Brothers to the rescue could be coming this week. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsath also so flagged the danger of foreign powers operating high tech intelligence facilities so close to the United States. That's the China play to buy out old Russian assets that have been rusted out or degrading in Cuba for the last two decades and then
convert them into highly capable, dual use military assets. Keep in mind, the United States tests most of our weapons system that do air to air and air to land over the Gulf of Mexico. When I was a Congressman for North Florida, I put hundreds of millions of dollars into developing test assets in the Gulf Test range, because that's a place typically where the United States had the ability to do these sensitive military maneuvers without some foreign
power listening. Now, Cuba cannot be allowed to become China's stationary aircraft carrier just ninety miles south of Florida. DoD officials say Cuba has been receiving drones from Russia and Iran since twenty twenty three, while Cuban personnel well have reportedly been fighting for Russia in Ukraine and learning drone tactics on the battlefield. Reportedly, Russia is paying Cuba about twenty five thousand dollars per Cuban that they produce for
the meat grinder that is the Russia war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, Iranian drone warfare has already damaged American bases and disrupted shipping in the Middle East as a.
Consequence of that war.
So officials do not believe Cuba right now is preparing some sort of offensive imminent attack. It's more likely that they're preparing a planned retaliation, but the threat here is no longer theoretical. A weak, collapsing Marxist regime backed by Russia, Iran and China is now reportedly studying how to bring modern.
Drone warfare to America's doorstep. Joining us now is the man who broke the story.
White House correspondent and senior political reporter for Axios and well known member of the conc Republic, Mark Capudo.
MARKU identified three.
Areas of potential Cuban drone strikes in your story of the Florida Straits, Key West and Guantanamo Bay. Do you have a sense from your discussions with administration officials which are more or less.
Likely the naval base on Guantanamo or the Guantanamo Baying naval based simply because it's on Cuba, it's also a good military target for other military to strike. To be clear, one of the reasons the United States has this concern is not only do they claim or say that this was picked up in the chatter, but a military base or military basis in the Middle East had been struck by Iranian drones and they figured that this would be sort of a copycat attack.
Mark.
I read this piece and I got the sense that it was an approved leak, Like I could just imagine President Trump being briefed on these three hundred drones being purchased and saying that he wanted to get that information out.
I know yours well sourced as anyone in the press corps when it comes to the Trump administration, But did you get this sense that there it was like approved leak energy around your discussions, and if so, do you think that signals forthcoming efforts for regime change in Cuba?
I could certainly say that there were members of the administration wanted to get this out, and that's why I got out. As for just what regime change is going to look like and when, I'm not sure, but it's
certainly part of a long standing pressure campaign. What I don't know, and what we don't know, is did this information get out because the United States wants to use this as a negotiating chip, a bargaining chip to try to get the Cubans at the table, or is this just basically a pretext to go to war by the United States. Now I'm being waved off of the idea that any of these strikes are imminent, or that any
military action by the United States is imminent. But nevertheless, I've never seen this amount of hostility from the US toward Cuba or Cuba toward the US, and all my years reporting on.
This, well, your story does link these Cuban drone purchases to what's happening more broadly in the Russia Ukraine War. Walk us through what evidence you think establishes those connections other than someone just asserting it.
The ties to the Ukraine War is what the officials had told us, which is essentially that not only have the Iranians use drone technology and swarms of drones effectively the Middle East, but there were as many as five thousand Cuban nationals, Cuban soldiers who had allegedly been drafted by Putin into the war in Ukraine, and they came back to Cuba and said, Hey, these drones that Ukraine is using against Cuba, or better said, Russia are being
used with devastating effect. These are things that Cuba should get.
The more important aspect I think of this is that there is just this paranoia and concern by the United States that asymmetric warfare from these smaller armed forces can more effectively be waged with this technology, and the US military establishment is starting to grapple with what the meaning of that is and how sort of the old way of looking at warfare, including having established naval bases, can sometimes not just be a benefit to that bigger force,
but can be a liability when this sort of asymmetric warfare can be waged.
We do have substantial military assets in the Florida Keys at Guantanamo Bay. Did any of the officials you speak with reflect to you that the force posture or force protection protocols would need to be changed as a result of this emerging threat.
They didn't say that because they don't want to make a look as you can imagine that the United States is weak or feels weak, especially against an opponent such as Cuba. At the same time, they're sort of balancing or balancing delicately on that high wire, which is at one time saying that this thing is a threat, but oh,
it's not imminent. The reality is, as the New York Post I think first coined the term the Don Road doctrine, is President Trump is keenly interested in force projection and project us power throughout the hemisphere, and in the perceptions of Donald Trump and certainly a Secretary of State Mark Rubio, the sort of hub of the large wheel of anti American Marxism and leftism is Cuba. It is the sort of head of the snake, the center of those destabilizing efforts.
And this has been a long time target in the United States, but since nineteen fifty nine to get rid of the Cuban regime there. And that's what makes Cuba at this point such an inviting target as far as the United States is concerned, as well as a possible one to sort of defeat through just slow, steady pressure. As more and more sanctions are piled on and Cuba runs out of fuel, it runs out of food, and it runs out of money to be able to purchase the first two.
It almost seems like a buried lead that there are five thousand Cubans fighting in the Russia Ukraine War.
I've studied that pretty closely.
Like I'm sitting here thinking to myself, how did five thousand Cubans get into that theater without the United States knowing? And if we knew that there were some major transport planes bringing five thousand people into.
That fight, why did we allow it?
Did it seem like that was maybe an unintentional part of this discussion you had with the ADMIN officials.
I don't know.
It certainly surprised me, That's why I put it in. And apparently the Cuban government had paid been paid as many as twenty five thousand dollars for each head there. I think Ukraine, or better said, Russia as also drafted or paid mercenaries from North Korea as well. What's sort of surprising in this entire matter is just the number of reported casualties from Russia that the United States is reporting. I think they claim it's upwards a five hundred thousand now,
which is just an astonishing amount. But as one of the officials from the United States have told us, as part of this is it's not just Russia, it's also Iran. So not only is Cuba part of quote Putin's meat grinder, but they're also sort of in the orbit and the sway of Iranian forces. And this is as these drones that Cuba has that the United States just doesn't want to take.
Your story comes out, it gets international attention, and I just wonder if it was presented to you to coincide with the expected unsealing of the indictment of Rabuel Castro this week. Of course, we expect him to that unseiling to showcase an indictment for ordering the killing of Ramanald Clroscate over the Florida Straits.
Do you see these things as linked.
I mean, it's hard not to see them as linked. In addition to that, we have the sanctions that, yeah, we're talking about sort of the sexy or interesting stuff of drones and the indictment of Raul Castro, but sort of the real trouble that Cuba is experiencing from the United States is from the sanctions that have been slowly imposed and the executive order that Donald Trump issued on
May first. And I understand he issued on May first for a reason because Marco Rubio, the child of the Miami Cuban ex exile community, made sure that May Day, the Communist Day, was interrupted by this sort of anti Marxist messaging and executive order, and that has just made it very difficult for foreign companies to do business in Cuba.
You're seeing more and more of them leave, You're probably going to see more and more of them slapped with sanctions going forward, and you're just going to see more and more of this pressure piled on.
Final question for you, you are very much a creature of South Florida.
You have a home in the Keys.
I can only imagine a lot of people, you know, reached out to you following this big scoop that you published. How are people in the Keys and South Florida reacting to thinking about Cuba as a potential threat in a way we haven't in decades.
Well, you hit the nail on the head. For a long time, Key West has sort of been different from Miami, and that Key West has always wanted this reproach mom with a Cuba sort of nose strings attached. Hey, let's do business, were ninety miles away. Good times here are here again, That's what they've always wanted. But yes, I did feel few phone calls from friends and people on the island, including US one Radio, to make sure that they didn't have to duck and cover.
I told them no.
As the story had said, the United States doesn't believe there's any threat of an imminent attack, but nevertheless, the threat is there.
According to the United States, if the attack is coming for Key West, the first reporter who will know will be Axios's own Mark Capudo.
Thank you so much as always for showing us. Thank you man and coming out.
The race for Kentucky's fourth congressional district gets decided in an election tomorrow. It has already been a historic contest. Never before in American political history has a Republican primary election costs so much We already know that more than twenty million dollars has been spent in this area. We were on the ground in Kentucky and have that exclusive reporting for you.
Next, for all of our viewers out there asking where to watch one American news, we'd like to introduce you to OAN Live. Oan Live is the best way to stay up to date on the hardest hitting news and our talk shows. And the best part is oaan Live is only four ninety nine per month credible, honest and unbiased reporting at a fraction of.
The cost of cable.
So just click on the link at the top of our homepage oann dot com to easily sign up for the news and conservative talk you can't get anywhere else.
The much watched race for Kentucky's fourth congressional district gets decided in an election tomorrow, and it has already been a historic contest. Never before in American political history has a Republican primary election to the House of Representatives costs
so much money. We already know of more than twenty million dollars that's been spent in this rural, relatively poor Kentucky district, and estimates are once all expenditures are reported, we can be looking at more than thirty five million dollars spent when you combine both sides, regardless of who you support in the race. It is just an astonishing figure. Thirty five million dollars.
Could you like buy all of Kentucky for that amount?
I mean, just to put this into context, when I removed Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker, he was big mad to say the least, and he was flushed with cash. Following his brief stint as Republican leader. He only spent about four million dollars in a failed and quixotic attempt to defeat me. So one would have to multiply Kevin McCarthy's rage spending by a factor of five or six times just to reach what we are seeing in Kentucky. So the big question why is this happening? The incumbent
in the races, Congressman Thomas Massey. Massey was first selected in twenty twelve. His tenure has been defined by a very strong libertarian streak, which has put him at odds with many of his Republican colleagues and the leader of the Republican Party, President Trump. President Trump has campaigned against Massey in this very district and has endorsed his opponent, Ed Galleran. Massey hasn't just gotten on the wrong side
of Trump, He's also angered a pack. It is a very strong lobby of Americans whose organizing principle is not the support of America, but Israel. Trump has painted Massy with some very blistering rhetoric and it has been a pack in their aligned groups who have supplied historic funding in the effort to defeat Massy. It's a point that Massy made light of at his recent rally that we covered in Florence, Kentucky on Saturday.
You know, just in case I lose, they gave me the number to call to concede.
The area code is tel Aviv.
Though we traveled to Kentucky to get an inside look at this race, who is showing up and who's showing out, we also wanted to know how voters in Kentucky were reacting to the deluge of advertising that accompanies these type of cash dumps in in district advertising over politics, So we caught up with Jeremy Todd he's with Independence Kentucky. He can't even vote for or against Thomas Massey in the Republican primary. Only Republicans will cast meaningful votes in
that contest. For the sheer amount of spend motivated mister Todd to reject what was being pushed by outside forces.
We love Thomas Massey. He stands for liberty, freedom, and we have to fight for him today.
The age gap.
Divide has really defined this race. The youth of America wants Thomas Massey. It's all been grassroots all across the country. Liberty lovers have supported him, and it's been unfortunately local Fox News boomers who have been kind of duped by the money that's trying to buy this race. I think it sends a message that you cannot buy elections in this country.
Well, you can't buy.
All of them, at least right there is still a place for people who love freedom and they don't do what Mike Johnson tells him to do. They don't have to do what the president tells him to do. They stand for their punt.
Massy's opponent in this race is not new to politics, enter Ed Galleran. He ran unsuccessfully for the state Senate last election cycle. But now he has the most powerful and potent thing imaginable in a twenty twenty six Republican primary, the endorsement of the most popular Republican on the planet, Donald J. Trump, and he's running.
Neck and neck with a fifteen year incumbent. That alone is really newsworthy.
Keep in mind, in this election cycle, the only Republican congressman who lost a primary was Tony Gonzalez, his legislative aid turned paramore tragically killed herself by lighting herself on fire. We could obviously say those are unique circumstances, but no other Republican is lost in a primary other than Gonzales. And here Massey is truly wired wire in the contest. Now, we wanted to learn more about Ed Galleran's campaign. Our network reached out to his team to request an interview.
We did not hear back. So then we saw that Ed Galleran was hosting a rally and we planned to attend that rally. It was abruptly canceled the day it was supposed to happen. Gallerin had hosted similar gatherings with Kentucky voters.
Here's how that went.
So you might guess I'm not sud urge about nothing, you know in terms of that.
But you haven't abated them.
I'm debating you might now you know you're not.
You're not debating them. You're You're giving a bunch of platitudes. You're not explaining anything.
You've not gone Toed Tod with the Congressman. You're not explaining your difference.
Is you're not doing anything.
You're You're just you're just you're like, you're.
Not explaining any differences. I just laid it all out of young man.
It made no sense.
Ed Galleran did appear on the Dan Bongino Show. Here's his pitch in the final moments of this campaign to voters.
Now served its seven sealed teams and the units include twice the Siltem six for career spanning three decades. So President asked me to meet with him on seventeen October and he basically made a challenge to me to serve my nation again. Lifetime member of the NRA Rifle and Pistol Instructor that I'm a fifth generation farmer. We've been farming in Kentucky for over one hundred years.
Where do you stand on this? What frame the anchor baby problem.
We have to be very wary in this nation of the intentions of our adversaries. It's a disruption operation to bring folks.
In illegally and then to grow that population to diffuse our nation and basically undermine it. Ayatola was a suicide bomber looking for a new full stop leminate that threat, and that allows us to shift and continue to focus on China, Russia and North Korea and defeat them by deterrence.
Now, the operative question for many voters in Kentucky is whether they can be for both President Trump and Thomas Massey. President Trump's wildly popular in Kentucky. He won the state by more than thirty points. President Trump's pro energy development policies have also been very good for Cold Country, and the voters there love him.
I spoke to many of them.
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has served the Commonwealth since twenty ten. He's at his own grapples with President Trump, but his message on the campaign trail, very interestingly is that you can love both Massey and Trump.
There is no man and no woman in the House of Representatives that is more faithful to the Constitution than your Congressman. It is with pride and it is with pleasure that I am here today to endorse Thomas Massey's fornominal But there is a twenty five million dollar question. That's how much money that's being spent in this primary, more money than has ever been spent in any Republican congressional primary.
Ever in the history of the United States.
Twenty five million. But here's the twenty five million dollar question. Can you like Donald Trump and and Thomas Massey? I say absolutely yes. The swamp wins, and Thomas Massey has purged from the party if his voice is erased, what happens next?
I'll tell you my response. I will tell you I will.
Say, and what you should say and what you should do in the next few weeks is tell the big government goons you're never giving them an inch, and tell them, you know what, never ever are.
We going to allow evil to win?
And stay right here.
Coming up is my interview with Congressman Thomas Massey from the campaign trail in Kentucky. Plus Congresswoman Lauren Bobert was on the trail with Massey. We've got her closing message to Kentucky voters, along with congress Women Victoria Sparts and Representative Warren Davidson. Also Ace Polster Richard Barris will join us to break down the late numbers.
Don't go anywhere. The battle for the Bluegrass State is on.
For all of our viewers out there asking where to watch one American News, we'd like to introduce you to OAN Live. OAN Live is the best way to stay up to date on the hardest hitting news and our talk shows. And the best part is on Live is only four ninety nine per month, credible, honest and unbiased reporting at.
A fraction of the cost of cable.
So just click on the link at the top of our homepage oann dot com to easily sign up for the news and conservative talk you can't get anywhere else.
Welcome back.
Congressman Thomas Massey is in the fight for his political life. He's aggressively campaigning in Kentucky, where we caught up with him for an interview just before his rally in the rural community of Florence.
Take a listen, tell us what how the campaign's been so far.
It's been a slug fast. I'm told this is the most expensive congressional primary in the history of this contract. We've got three billionaires who are fueling the fire on the other side, and on my side, I've got fifty thousand grassroots does.
If you win this election, what message do you think it sends to the country?
If when I win this election, right when it tells him that this state is not for sale. You can't come in with foreign special interest money and buy a seat in Congress here in Kentucky. Go to some other state and try it.
We're not falling for If you're talking to an undecided voter who's seen all the ads, what's your closing message in these final moments.
My closing message is you can like Trump and you can like Thomas at the same time. Because most of my constituents like Trump and they're voting for me. But I'm running against an AI candidate who's not without the eye.
He won't show up to debate. He's skipped eight debates and forums.
He uses AI to do his posts, he uses AI to do he's commercials. He thinks when he shakes his fist at the TV at me, he's debating me. And here's what he You know, I've run against people they make promises and then you've seen these people in Congress. They make all these promises while they're running. They get to DC and they just go along to get along.
This guy I'm running against promises to go along to get along. I've never seen this strategy.
Every observer says age is the number one factor and whether someone will vote for Thomas Massey. Why do you think that is And what's your hope for young people to get out and vote on Tuesday?
Well, age, you know, regardless of what pole you're looking at, and some of them are crazy polls, but the one thing we all see in common is there is.
A large disparity in age.
I'm winning everybody under fifty five that demographic probably by thirty points, and if you go over sixty five, he's winning that demographic. So if you guess the average age of the voter wrong on election day, your poll's going to be off. We've got influencers from all over the country here. We're pushing to get out the young vote and just like five percent more, you know, extra turnout of people under the age of fifty five, which I think is going to happen, will blow this race.
Out for us. You you often.
They're often a rally wasn't supposed to start.
We'll go ahead.
You know, you often are the loan vote on major issues that are before the country. But we are seeing this ground swell of young people for you here in the district and around America. What beyond just this race, what do you think that says about the future of the Republican Party and the ideology and the and the positions that will be reflected by the future of the vote.
Well, the reason we've got the young voters is they're better informed. They're watching podcasts, they're doing their own research, they're on the internet. They know when something's AI and when something's real. Okay, so they're better informed. I've got great hope for this country because we've got the young vote, and those are the future of the party. Matt, you've heard the question, it's gonna be Marco Rubio, Is it.
Gonna be jd Vance?
Who is the future?
What's the future of the Republican Party. The future of the party is the people who are supporting me. The problem is that I vote against the party in Washington DC ten percent of the time. The problem is the Republican Party in Washington, d C. Is voting against the American Republic ten percent of the time.
Yes, suh.
This race and the way you've funded it, raising small dollars from people all over the country, it doesn't look like any House congressional.
Race ever in history.
So final question for you at the conclusion of this race, are you off to Iowa to run for president?
No, I'm here.
I will be here in Kentucky and DC doing my job as a US representative, because if I'm not in the House of Representatives, there is a voice that is completely gone. The Epstein files would not have been released if I weren't in Congress and the globalist.
No, Thomas Massey, that's so much. Thank you. I love being on the campaign trail now.
During this very rally, President Trump took to social media to blast Massey, but he did not just attack him. He also went after Republican Colorado Congresswoman Lauren Bobert for campaigning alongside Massey. She took it in stride and says she still supports both Trump and Massey, and she brought a lot of energy to the campaign trail.
Great to be here where you can feel the freedom, you can feel liberty, and I am so excited that you are here. To show up strong for my friend Thomas Massey. This race will determine the future of all other races. You all understand the millions of dollars that have been poured in by billionaires.
Even a billionaire that's in the Epstein files.
But on Tuesday you have got to send a clear message that Kentucky is not for sale. Right now, you have a congressman who does exactly what he promises you he will do.
Anyone can go to Washington, DC and read a room.
Your congressman reads the Constitution, He reads.
The day bills.
This is a man who is not afraid to be the only one to take a stand. He is not a that's right to go back in the rooms and actually negotiate good things to be in legislation, even when he doesn't vote for the final product on the floor, I guarantee you he was part of the negotiation to at least make the bill a little bit better for you. I support our president and I support Thomas Massey.
I think the President will still support me after this weekend. We'll see. But I want to thank you all so much.
Thank you for getting out the vote Kentucky and con for sale.
Vote for Thomas Massey.
Though President Trump attacks Congressman Bobert for her appearance in Kentucky, he gave no mention of the other two members of Congress who joined the event. Here's Ohio Congressman Warren Davidson.
On so many issues, Thomas serves as a beacon. He's out there pointing the way. And I will tell you, on issue after issue, people might see that Thomas votes know and a lot of my colleagues have already come up here and talked about how he's collaborative and he works behind the scenes. Now he's fixed. He doesn't on moving. When he's taken the position, people know where he stands. He wants a smaller government. I want a smaller map.
You would think that when you have a time where you have a Republican majority in the House, a Republican majority in the Senate, and a president who all say they want a smaller, more accountable government, that at.
Least occasionally you would get a smaller, more accountable government. But as you can see from the debt badge, it only grows, right, it only grows. And I will say Thomas in those times has the courage to hold and if he wasn't there, we wouldn't we would turn left even harder day. Privacies under attack, I would say the
Third Amendments under attack. You're giving quarter to the government and everything from your cars, to your phones, to your homes, everything the government, your bank accounts, everything the government wants to look at it. But you know one person for sure is going to be on the right side of every one of those constitutional issues. Thomas Massey wants to restore our government small enough to fit in the constitution.
You need.
Ni a party that delivers on the things we say we stand for, or we're going to be a party that's governed by which way the wind's blowing. And look, populism's great. We want our ideas to be popular, we want them to be principal. I know Thomas Massey is a principled man, and I am so glad to have him as a friend and a colleague. Please send Thomas Massey back to Congress and make sure your friends do too.
That was Ohio Republican Congressman Warren Davidson.
But don't go anywhere.
We'll be right back with more from the campaign trail in Kentucky.
For all of our viewers out there asking where to watch one American news.
We'd like to introduce you to OAN Live.
OAN Live is the best way to stay up to date on the hardest hitting news and our talk shows. And the best part is OA and Live is only four ninety nine per month, honest and unbiased reporting at a.
Fraction of the cost of Cape.
So just click on the link at the top of our homepage oann dot com to easily sign up for the news and conservative talk you can't get anywhere else.
We're continuing our coverage of the campaign for Kentucky's fourth congressional district, the most expensive Republican primary for congress in history. We want to get right to the polling and the data to assess where this race stands. Joining us now the man the myth of the legend, the director of big data poll and host of Inside the Numbers with the people's pundit, the people's punnet, himself, Richard Barris Rich.
This big election is tomorrow in Kentucky. Bring us inside the numbers in the fourth Congressional District.
No thanks for having me, As always, Matt, this has been probably the most interesting race to poll since the twenty four election and the district itself. As you know, obviously it's hard to poll districts because a couple hundred votes here are there sways the margin quite a bit.
But this this.
District is very contrarian. It's libertarian leaning, so it fits Thomas Massey well. That being said, who votes in primaries older voters and older voters are certainly the ones that are most loyal to Donald Trump. So this race has been dead even basically for a few days. This is what people need to know. Massy has a broader basis support, but they have to vote. If they don't, then the more reliable older electorate is ed Golran's electorate and they'll
carry it for him. So it really is like one of these things, Matt, where you know, you want to give some of those younger voters, you know, the you want to give them the benefit of the doubt that they're going to come.
Out and vote.
But you do know how strong President Trump is when he motivates older voters to get out. So it really is a coin toss at this point.
I have never seen a race where you know, you've seen this amount of money spent and when you see like thirty five million dollars potentially in a race.
After what point does that.
Start to become diminishing returns or does that start to turn off voters? Or is the old adage correct that in any political contest you want all the money and all the votes and anything less than full throttle is suboptimal.
Look, you know you want money. I mean, there's no doubt. But we did speak to a lot of people live in this entire time that we've been polling this race, and it is a frequent thing that we hear that the people of the fourth are not used to this kind of money and this kind of attention, and a lot of them who I think could have been persuaded
to move on from Congressman Massey for different reasons. I think the race is even this close still despite that money because some of these people just they didn't like this approach, and I think the outside money offended them. I don't think this is what they're saying. They're very
skeptical of that. So if Thomas Massey survives, it's because the gall Ring campaign chose to go totally negative, chose to not really define who he was but instead wrote out I mean, let's be honest, We're being perfectly honest. Ed Golran is running a Joe Biden campaign. He's hiding mostly, and he came out yes over the weekend to do some stuff, or at least try to do some stuff, and he appear with Pete Haik said today, But the voters of the district really didn't know what he stood
for other than I'm endorsed by Donald Trump. And that works with the sixty two in older crowd who vote in primaries. So understandable why the President's advisors and team, you know, this team went with this strategy. I'm just saying that if it falls shy, it'll be because of that. Yeah, I mean, yeah, there's something.
I think that every election is kind of about one big question, And I ask you this one because I really don't know the answer to it. But is this election a referendum on Donald Trump? Or is it a referendum on Thomas Massey?
You know, that's a We've been trying to answer this question for the better part of two weeks. Honestly, the district isn't like other Republican districts, so I would really caution people to be careful what they read into this. It is a contrarian district. It is one that leans more libertarian than it does like some of the districts you and I are more familiar with. In Florida. Right, Trump is king there and that's it. This is not
the case in Kentucky. For however, I do think that there is one line that the Galleryan campaign has used that would seem to indicate at least part of this is a referendum on Thomas Massey, and that's the line that there's a difference between being principled and being obstructionist. We do hear that quite a bit, and some people you have I think they're basically those people who are
wondering that are basically split. One side says I may not like it, and I'm not always in agreement with him, but at least I know who Thomas Massey is, and at least I know those are his votes. Ed is getting bankrolled by three billionaires and you know, a foreign pack and I don't like it. But the other half is saying, maybe it is time because it could have cost us the big beautiful bill.
So that there is that is a.
Debate going on, I think the answer is probably gonna end up both Matt.
Welleren, the election is a referendum on Donald Trump. Thomas Massey is going to lose the election because Donald Trump is the most potent force in politics in.
Every congressional district.
And so if I were Massey, I would not want the election to be a referendum on Trump, because Trump is going to end up on the stronger part of that question. Massey asked to if he has a chance to win the election, he has to make it a referendum on himself. Ed Galleran seems to be similarly willing
to make the election a referendum on Thomas Massey. Now, Richard, I have never I've studied politics a long time, I have never seen a race where age was the most dispositive factor in how a vote would be cast.
So talk to us about why age, above.
Almost all else, determines whether or not a voter is likely to vote for Ed Gallerin or Thomas Massey.
This and I have gone back into our data sets to look at all of the races that we have pulled over the years, even general elections, and it's tough to find one that's comparable to this. Every generation below boomers, So the boomer and silent gen Although Kentucky four doesn't have many silent generations left, it doesn't have much registration growth with the sixty two and above at all, Matt,
And that's what really Massy's clinging to right now. They support Gallrin anywhere between twenty five and thirty five points.
Sixty two and above.
That's been his performance with them, and they are the most loyal vote to Donald Trump. And good for Gallan is that they vote in primaries. Massey wins everyone else, and Folks, I'm not just talking about small little margins. He clabbers at Gallroan with millennials three to one. He clabers him with gen Z even with gen X. Now Massey has pulled into a lead. His problem is that gen X is and isn't voting at high as high rates as boomers. So this is why this thing is
so close. I'm getting concerned, Matt, with this entire generational question with the party.
Honestly wrote a book about it.
Just recently, Republicans are seeming to govern for like the govern for the Fox Boomer Cohn, which is a minority of the Boomer generation, and they're leaving out or just ignoring the fact that very soon, within less than.
A decade, the electorate will rapidly.
Change and Thomas Massey's coalition will basically be the only way to win elections. So this is something that has been weighing on me throughout this whole thing. The Republican Party, It's an important race. The Republican Party has got to decide whether they care to cater to these voters at all, because if they don't, they're gonna find winning general elections in the future very difficult. Millennials will be the biggest
block sooner than many people realize. Everyone's acting and pretending as if the Fox boomer Cohn is gonna be it. It's not. It'll be over soon and just the reality we all have to face.
Yeah, obviously Fox News is television for very low IQ people, and it should be noted that President Trump is currently suing the parent company to Fox News for lying about him. But we do see the electorate expanding here. I've looked at the data from some of the early voting days. This is not a low turnout race. It could be a laro a high turnout race. I know Chris los Avita, well, he's the very competent consultant for Ed Galleran Chris los
Avita likes expanding the electorate. He likes going to those low propensities, educating them, turning them out. He feels like that's money in the bank. Which side has an advantage if we start to see numbers that continue to show high turnout.
Yeah, so typically it would be you would the incumbent would want lower turnout because the incumbent will benefit from incumbency like that obviously, but in this case, there really are two scenarios with high turnout benefiting both candidates. One is what los Avita wants, and there is evidence, and you know we've been talking about this, there's evidence in the last few nights that what he's doing is working.
So you know, this targeting of lower propens the older voters, particularly sixteen above, sixty two and above, they have become more of the electorate over the last two days. We can see it clear as day in the collection. And then the other one that benefits Massy is just where
the electorate overall is increased. Because sixty five and above is only about twenty five percent of Kentucky four, Massy needs these young voters to come out, so he needs high turnout, but he can't let he can't let Galren's team do it on their own terms because that'll just lead to a larger margin for Galleran. Just to give people an idea, it's dead even among all likely voters in the latest that I'm about to put up right now.
But if you look at most certain to vote and people who already voted, Galryn has about a four point lead. So Massy needs them to come out or he's gonna lose.
Yeah, turning out gen Z millennial voters on election day is hard. That's why in so much of what we did in President Trump's campaign because Psident Trump dominated with voters under the age of thirty, so everything was about to get them to vote early, get them to return ballots. If you're four points back at this stage of the game with folks who've already voted, that's typically not a good sign. But we will be watching it closely while
I have you, Richard, the midterms coming up. We've got rising prices continuing to impact how voters are seeing things now.
But if this.
War resolves, if all of the crud goes into processing and we see supply side energy shock with all the victories Republicans are getting in redistricting. Is it too crazy to think Mike Johnson could hold on to the speaker's gable.
Listen, I'm not there yet, and I'll tell you why i am not there. I want them. I wanted them to redistrict to the point where if they lost by a margin we saw in the New York Times poll today which mirrors big out a pole, we have them down by eleven two, it would still be okay, or it would still give them a fighting chance. The problem with this is even if we get to the point where they only need to win three toss ups, their toss ups in a neutral environment, it's the nation mood
stays negative for Republicans. Republicans are going to struggle, and it will not just be whether they got to hold those battleground districts, so it'll be can they actually keep
some of the Trump plus tens in down? Because Trump outperformed congressional Republicans all over the math, and we tend to look at his vote chair and compare it to Republicans, and Republicans don't understand that without them on the ballot, it's a little hard to perform like that right, So you know, I'm just not there yet, although I'm the entire point about you know, my arguments in the last six months have been because I refuse to concede that
they have to lose the House, and that's completely unnecessary. This like pendulum swing we talk about in the modern era, is a modern phenomenon. It started in ninety four with the Republican Revolution. Before that, Congress could be held by the same party for decade, two decades, all right, I mean it was common, So I never I never subscribed to the idea mat of just expecting you're going to lose because you're the first term incumbent party.
But it's about perception.
Voters have to feel like Republican and the presidents specifically are much much more focused on their problems at home and not everything else that really they views distractions abroad wise.
Words from the People's Pundit Richard Barris, head of Big Data Pull, Thanks as always for coming on and breaking.
It down anytime.
Matt, all the best, and coming up, we're back to the campaign trail in Kentucky with Indiana Congresswoman Victoria's Sparts. She took the stage and had a very rousing message for those in Florence.
We'll get to that after the break.
For all of our viewers out there asking where to watch one American news, we'd like to introduce you to OAN Live. OAN Live is the best way to stay up to date on the hardest hitting news and our talk shows. And the best part is on Live is only four ninety nine per month, credible, honest and unbiased reporting at a.
Fraction of the cost of CAPE.
So just click on the link at the top of our homepage oann dot com to easily sign up for the news and conservative talk you can't get anywhere else.
Welcome back.
Indiana.
Congresswoman Victoria Sparts is a deeply independent minded lawmaker. She was born in Ukraine and has spent a lot of her time in Congress as a searing critic of Vladimir Zelenski. On the Judiciary Committee, She's battled against abuses in America's spying program. That's where she's worked most closely with Thomas Massey, and she is one of the most fiscally conservative people in all of Washington. Following her stint as an auditor
for one of America's largest financial firms. This week, she was on fire and on the campaign trail for Kentucky's embattled congressman.
Take a listen, I'll tell you.
I'll tell you why this Yankee bro from Noble taking the great State of Indiana to support my guy friend.
And I'll tell you why.
You know, obviously you can tell that I still have some Yankee absent. Obviously you know you can say that I wasn't born in my great state of Indiana.
And I'll tell you why I was born. Was born in the Soviet Union, now the country in Ukraine.
And you see what's happening in the contrast like that, I was born under communists and dictatorship walk since and I've done, I've done. I've seen how many people we'll destroy, how many lives we've destroyed. And as an American twenty six years ago, crossing the ocean.
These idealistic ideas.
Of freedom, a free republic was one suitcase as many Americans came here two hundred and fifteen years ago for the battles.
I came from a country.
Of opportunities and dream and I thought, this is America, the kind of freedom. And when I saw what's happening in the country, when I saw what's happening.
With our young people.
When I've seen how many great Americans forwarded the trenches and sacrifices, we are.
Destroying our freedoms.
I became crazy enough to become a politician, and it was a cheap body organized and twenty years ago my kids went strollest.
Now they're in college. You know, a sud I'm like, okay.
I was like, oh I am ge. I thought it was a kind of freedom.
This is done and like Russian style politics, Marvel, I'm a.
Woof this is crazy.
I could not as an American who loved this country. There's so many Americans who came here because.
They understood we don't have kings and queens, we don't have someone on top's gonna tell us what to do, and they sacrifice their lives that we keep this republic.
This is an anniversity two hot and fifties anniversary, and I think this battles for a reason. God always has a plan. I truly believe if God wouldn't have a plan, I would not be aving Congress.
But I have me.
Where's my Yankee accent?
Body?
Stood? Im ta five gone? The afriaking Marxist. I'm far the people. I want reconnible. Okay, this is not a party that used to be.
They're crazy, But.
My party, if we are silent and not willing to stand up, we allow them to succeed.
We allow them, We allow them.
To take over the country.
So I did responsibility for my party.
And I take a come after my leadership of my party because.
I feel if you will to lead the party, you have to stand up for the people, people that promise to keep your promises, and like to have people they're going to rub a stamp, They'll like to have people that are going to do exactly what money machine wants.
They don't want free in love with people.
This is the Kentuck He's gonna have true representitive that fights for you, that knows that if you if farmers don't get on the field, the farmists don't have.
An ability to save family farms.
We are going to have oligopolists and Chinese and Brazilian cartels destroy our agriculture like they did your manufacturing and lighting. And now we have all this new controlling over state. He's willing to go the strengers and a lot of time, no matter how hard I always seen Thomas, he goes to the strenches and never afraid to do it.
He never afraid to say, you know, guys, this is wrong. That's not what people elected us to do.
It's Congresswoman victorious parts on the campaign trail with a lot of fire. That's all the time we have. I have a quick programming note. I'll be on assignment tomorrow. Our good friend Riley Lewis, co anchor of the Anchorman podcast. He'll be here with the Wheel, So make sure to tune in. He's got a great show planned for you, and sign up for the on live app if you haven't already. Just go to OA n N dot com, follow me on x at Matt Gates and email us
to Matt Gates Show at OANN dot com. Of course, stay right here Fine Point with Chanel Ryan is up next. Let's go get them.
For all of our viewers out there asking where to watch one American news, we'd like to introduce you to on Live. Oan Live is the best way to stay up to date on the hardest hitting news and our talk shows. And the best part is OAN Live is only four ninety nine per month. Credible, honest and unbiased reporting at a fraction of the cost of Cape, so just click on the link at the top of our homepage oann dot com to easily sign up for the news and conservative talk you can't get anywhere else