Will Bitcoin Go To $12k or $30k First? | Charles Edwards

the trouble and going on in the world. I mean obviously yes, looking at the US right being the reserve currency of the world, but I mean looking at what's happened in Japan with the b O J and in Europe, Um, I mean if if, if things deteriorate to a point where the EU starts to break apart or the ECB starts to default, I mean, is the FED going to

step in and put that on their back? So it's like you kind of still like understand what's going on there to understand what might happen to the US A little yeah, well yeah, and just look at the old the currency paths best, the U S. Dollar, everything's everything is struggling, um, you know, the euros down or something in that rage and last the last year, Um, just they've been so slow to jump on the you know, on the gunden with the Fed, right roses and I

think a lot of kind there's just behind and so they're just saying that collect and then you've got extra supply side and flash and factor on top. Um. Yeah, lots of interesting dynamics putting stresses on systems. Yeah. I did a video not too long ago talking about, you know, potential breakup of the EU and just how you know, the just like all central banks are stuck in this proverbial rock and a hard place, UM where inflations raging in Europe, the inflation is worse than the US even

UH inflations raging on UM. So it makes it very difficult for them to you know, continue to ease into that type of environment. But at the same time, because it's a debt based monetary system, a Ponzi system, if they don't continue to ease, and the whole thing starts

to fall apart. And how Europe specifically, right, you have Germany kind of being this economic engine of Europe that's been this manufacturing now, but then you have the pigs nations down south, right, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain specifically Greece Italy, I mean they're horrible. Grease has had been bailed out multiple times UM and so if they continue to rease reach, how do those countries continue to get bailed out? Roll

over there. I suspect, again coming back to the US, that we're approaching the late stages of at least the aggressive part of the rate rises. I think we're going to see those rate rises diminishing size and probably pause into either later part of this year or early next year, just because we're seeing inflation signs of topping the last

few months. It's you know, obviously this month individually was not what people expected, but if you look at the trend the last few months, that has come down quite a bit. And if that continues the next couple of months, I don't see why, you know, the FED could probably quite comfortably say, you know, we've got things under control for now, and let's just kind of keep things at a consistent relative level, or maybe raise but less aggressively,

and to see if this trend continues. Um. That's kind of my feeling. I think that will put a bit of a pressure release on systems in the next three About that for a minute, So inflation trending uh to maybe maybe down or topping out? Um, I saw you, I think put out a tweet just this morning saying this is the chart to look at or something like that, right that the most bullish world inflation top so, so

inflation is trending down. There was this video of President Biden that just kind of was maybe going a little bit viral. Um. He was interviewed on sixty Minutes and they were kind of hammering him and they said, uh, but inflation still going, is still moving up? And said, well it went up an inch? Yeah is it? What's it? What's an inch? Yeah? Exactly. I saw that as well, and you know it's someone in his position you kind

of yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't put it presented that way in the positive scenario that he tried to do. I suppose, But yeah, we do have three or four depending on your PPI data points down monthly on and kind of reduced rights. It's still earlier. I think inflation something is probably historically it's been a problem when it arises for multiple years. So maybe that it's topped so to speak, for now, and that kind of level off a bit and come down maybe even to the low

single digits next year. But it could then you know, raise its head in a year or two if it depending on sort of macro situations. But I think at least for this portion of the you know, the battle, so to speak, with inflation, I think we are approaching the point where a stance softening, whether that be you know, lower rate rises or or just pausing for a few months, is close. And I think you just look at the massive amount of negative sentiment we have in markets at

the moment. The put core ratio is it eight or something ridiculous, three times worse than two thousand and eight. There's a lot of negative sentiment and fear in the markets everywhere. And I think as soon as you have an event like that with a pause or just reduction in rate and then in the in the level of rise, we're gonna say a bit of a uh, you know, a bit of a balance I would say, laced in the near term. So so inflation is trending down. So it went from nine point one to eight point five

to eight point three, right, so it's trending down. But if you if you dig into the data, um, if you look at it, if you look at the data, I mean the CPI data with the government in the US is going after from the BLS, it shows um that energy is the only thing that went down, right, Everything else continued to go up, and energy came down, and specifically, well one, it had gone up, I mean, depending if you're looking at gasoline or oil had gone up, you know, as much as a hundred fifty percent, and

now it pulled back. So it's still so, I mean, it's due for a little bit black. And then you have unprecedented releasing of the spr reserves, oil reserves, so supply and demand. You dump all this extra supply on the market, you bring them down, you get a little bit of leaf. But everything else core still went up big time. Yes, yeah, yeah, Energy is are a huge part of it obviously at the moment um, and that is obviously one of the driving factors a lot of

the change. But I do think also that the tightening regime that we're in, where you've got you know, call it three to five interest rates over the next twelve months, it's gonna put a lot of pressure on on just investments in generally, whether it be individual investors in the market, but also businesses are looking to start new projects or take new actions, any kind of speculation, any adoption risk because you have that cash alternative which gives you a return.

So that's all going to drive down. That stuff takes many many months to hit hit markets and subsequently hit consumer demand, and um just broader metrics of inflation that you're talking about. So you know, we're seeing new housing starts in the US, for example, they've really come back over the last six six months. Hasn't quite hit housing prizes yet, but there's deaf a significant topping structure on new housings. So things like that, I think our early

signs of how people are thinking about spending money. How you know, if people are not willing to you know, start doing up ground because they're worried about the situation, they're starting to tighten the belt a bit, and that's going to start to feed out, I believe, into a lot of different areas of the economy. So I think we will see it it feed into other is not

just energy, but other areas of inflation. And it's you know, it's a twelve months, twenty four months process at least to really to see the net impacts of just where

the rates are today. I would say, yeah, yeah, I was reading something last week and it was saying it typically takes at least nine months to see the effect of the rate increase get its way through the market exactly, you know, and then you know, what the Fed specifically seems to be doing is trying to destroy the demand, right, and so whether that's crushing the real estate market to

the point you're making, or crushing this ar market. But they also need to really affect the employment market, right that labor. Yeah, they're they're the enemy of the people. Your wage throwing up? Is there problem? Yes, that that dull man that you're kind of impossible task they have in some respects. Yeah, I think that that is the biggest metric that they would be looking at right now.

As employment. There's a number of I did tweet todays was about four kind of metrics at a high level of four data points that really monitor for a recession, and that would be the key kind of help them pace how far they can push the pedal so to speak, with tightening. But the biggest ones definitely employment. It's also you know, could simply say it's voters, right and how it impacts political power structures as well. So it's a

record lows lowest that's been in about fifty years. The unemployment, unemployment right exactly. That's said in a lot us one or two months, it's started to tick up a bit nothing arguably nothing concerning yet arguably noise. But if you have that trend of it continuing to go up for the next couple of months, it would look like a bottoming structure and unemployer rates and typically when you have a bottoming structure, you do end up having a recession

follow it. Um. It's just kind of that reflexivity. Basically, everything compound in the wrong way, and the unemployment rates I would say, kind of somewhat lagging towards metrics like new housing starts for example. But also all of this data is a bit lagging. It's it's monthly, and even that the way it's arrogated can be a bit late. So yeah, we do we do need some more time

to confirm that. But I think that is another reason if you know, if that does continuous current trend of going up a bit later into the year, that's just another data point for the FED to Okay, now, it's probably a reasonable time to just see what happens if we hold rates but they are or just increasing by what mm hm. When when you look at the unemployment data. Uh, there's the data, the number that the government releases obviously,

which to your point is very low. Um, And there seems to be like the real data that goes into making that number. Um. Yeah. So for example, Uh, they come up with this data by doing surveys, right, and then they have like an adjust an adjuster on top of that. So um, they use something I covered this in a video and basically, UM, they use this birth death factor to see how many new businesses were created

or how many died, and then how many jobs. And then they asked to me how many jobs that would create, and they do that based off of the previous year's data. So they took this anomaly year where we had this massive restart because the whole world was forced to shut down open backups, we had all these business start back up, all these jobs. They took that data and then extrapolated it.

So they added three nine thousand jobs um to the data that they had, so that it doesn't take a data scientist to figure out that was an anomaly year. We're grabbing an adjustment of three thousand jobs and adding that. Um, that's not normal, So that data is obviously false. Do you think they look at that or they're just looking at the data the number, yeah, or is it is it about selling it to the public. I think that's

the lot. It is definitely a big part of it. Um. I'm sure that you know, I wouldn't just be speculating if I guess what they look at. I'm sure I look at a lot of different data points. That said, they don't have the best track record of of identifying this stuff in advance, even you know, they were quite late to rising right slast year, for example, so they

can be a bit behind the curve. Um. I'm sure they've got their core metrics, which God may call the decision making, and then you've got all this other data they probably look out as well. But yeah, the common situation just threw a big spark up and down in a lot of metrics. So it would be interesting to know how they allow for that. Do they smooth it out somehow? Do they do they just ignore? Do they or do they shift the data and focus on other errors?

Because you're right, that would that will have a big impact and we won't know for for years, really how much of an impact I could have. Yeah, and then well, just because when you're trying to you know, be forward looking, um, trying to figure out where these things are going. And so it's like you can kind of like lie about the data for so long, but eventually, like the reality

is going to set in. And so not only that, but then we have the increasing jobs, most a lot of them more part time, less than forty hours at lower rates. So sure we added jobs, but we added very low quality jobs and paying jobs of our jobs. Um. So when you dig into the data, like the number, the number seems okay. The reality is kind of like the CEF I see if you came down. But when you dig into it, yeah, that's it doesn't look that good. Yeah,

I don't. I don't pretend to to to argue that the sort of macro economy as a whole is seeing a lot of a lot of trouble at the moment. Just the classic yield curves right there, so negatively inverted right now, which suggests that the economy is in medium

to long term trouble. And they've proceeded recessions by roughly twelve months every single time hit rate over the last seventy years, so they're negatively invert right now, which suggests that we should statistically have a recession somewhere in the

next twelve or twenty four months on average. So when I say that rates will potentially pause and we may have a bit of a near term recovery in equities markets that could last and don't want to put a time number, but it could last anywhere from months to a year or potentially a bit more, and then obviously

will depend on conditions at the time. But as a whole, all of these kind of indicators are pointing towards a turn in at least the unemployment metrics, right, which, as you say, is gonna it's gonna hit jobs at some point if we remain in this tightening phase. Let's talk about the other four. So, so you said that you know the four signs you're looking at. So one is the unemployment data, so it is at a very low number. Um, whether we can believe the data or not, that's okay.

At least shows maybe the consumers are buying him. Then you had a consumer spending and how strong is yeah, exactly,

that was still quite strong. And I think you can see this big spike in that shot from around the Corona period, which no doubt is on the back of a lot of economic stimulus and those those checks that were coming out, and it is plunging right now, but it is still at least on the the data in a monthly level, which again is somewhat lagging, and I think the most recent data point is a month or two old. Anyways, it is on that chart, it's still about above the twenty year average. UM. But I think

that's also a reflection on jobs. Right, so once you see them, the unemployer rights starts to tick up, it's obviously going to impact the consumer spending. So all these metrics are intertwined. UM. But and and unemployment in my mind is probably the most important. But yeah, we are saying relatively healthy levels of consumer spending. I shared this video that the day, So this is like a US personal savings plunging down the blue line here, and then

Federals consumer credit outstanding as increasing. We have like masive amounts of debt increasing, consumer savings going down. So the spending is happening, But where is the spending happening from? Exactly? If if you die of into the dattainel like a child like this, it doesn't paint a pretty picture that's for sure. Yeah. Yeah, so it's like, um, the data at surface level seems to kind of be okay, right, but when you dig end of the data and all

of a sudden, you're like, well wait a minute. Um, But even a chart like that is another reason why at some point, unless the Fed has lost its mind, it cannot keep rising as aggressive it is because it's just gonna break, not only businesses but individuals and families. Yeah, have high depens like they could continue until things break. But I think it's some you know, at a logical point, especially when in flash and starting to come back a bit,

they're going to start to change that. Yeah. This this chart was pulled a month ago. I don't have the updated chart. This is from eight four you can see right here. But consumer credit um skyrocketing right here. Personal savings continues to go down, so sort of like the last chart we saw, but this is a consumer credit, yeah, versus personal savings, and so yeah, spending is still happening.

But yeah, I agree. I mean, unless the Federal Reserve completely has their head in the sand, Um, they got to see this data, right, I mean, I'm certainly I don't have the whatever thousand PhDs working for me like they do. I mean, if I can see you see the data, then we have the next Your next indicator was the manufacturing the p M I. So that's, uh, what what's the p M I and how is it holding? Yeah,

it's a survey of manufacturing. It's it's above fifty at the moment, it is probably one of the less attractive looking at the metrics has definitely come back a lot in the last six to twelve months. Um. If you look at the fifty line on that on that metric, when it crosses onto that, it's often again aligned with a period before a recession because I don't have the months or the jurrectional top of mind, but it has occurred frequently before a session, So it's going the wrong direction.

And that's you know, if that crosses under fifty again, another reason later in the year early next year to to start to you know, reduced rates a bit or so reduced the frequency or the depth of right rises. So yeah, it's not it's not trending well, but it's still a positive enough level to not trigger immediate action. Yeah. And then the fourth one was the bad one, the worst one out of all, right, was the real yeah, exactly, And I haven't dived into the components that at a

great level. That said, you can see it quickly in a chart, and the real income is very negative, far worse than two night And obviously a lot of that is going to be inflation related. Nonetheless, it's it's bad. Yeah.

Going back to that labor market report that I was kind of referencing before, so we saw average hourly earnings year over year ago up five when we have eight or nine percent inflation, so influence, they're not going up with the with the rate and and back on the point that we made earlier, the FED doesn't once your wages going up, that's a problem for them. Yes, And if if more people would just wake up to that fact, like the FED actively once you're making less money, why

because it's inflation? Well no, all right, I mean, if I have to pay somebody more money to work, then I have to raise my prices m M exactly. Yeah. So um, it seems like and I think you would agree that that the macro picture and you said earlier that you're kind of studying more about the U S side, but the macro pictures driving the bus here. So I

want to kind of dive into the risk assets. And obviously risk assets have just been completely obliterated November of last year when the FED first an nounced they were going to start doing it. Where they even did we saw the SMP didn't start moving down January. But it when when you look at risk assets and can they catch a bid? Are we at the bottom? Are they cheap or expensive? All these things? Um? Do you think the macro picture is the one driving the bus and

that's really the bigger question overall? Or where are you looking? Yeah, it's definitely a huge factor at the moment um. I think it's obviously my main focus is bitcoin and crypto. When I look at bitcoin exclusively and and different value metrics, I look at the many different on chain metrics, everything is kind of screaming deep value once and afore kind of opportunity of ratings on on multiple metrics. Um. But we still have this tight correlation to macro markets, which

is a big factor. I I do think, as I mentioned, I think that a lot of the direction and trends that risk assets take in general over the long term, if you just look at big time frames, is driven by the change in rates of change of Fed and monetary policy. So we in November last years you mentioned that they basically announced we're gonna have a rate of change in the rout and in how rates are increased,

and that triggered this kind of collapse. And I think we're about to see the next kind of transition later this year early next year where the rate of change of rates will reduce or go to go to zero, so the rates will just go you pause at the current level at least for some time, and then that will cause kind of a trend shift in risk assets um Again, may not be long term, but I think it will happen, and it could be that we're in a recession at that point, or maybe it's a bit

later or earlier. But people to remember that historically, once of recession is announced, it it has been a pretty good bye signal and risk asset mark it. So while things may look awful, while unemployment maybe rising, it doesn't make you know. The equiz market is always looking forward. They're always discounting back six twelve months from the future. So even if situations are quite ugly, it's it's going to be the rate changes that drive things. UM So

I think that's on the horizon. I think this Wednesday. So we're on Monday today, so and Wednesday we've got the the rates being announced. It's about priced in that we're gonna have a seventy five base point rate rise. Hundred. I don't think a hundred is even on the cards, just given we've got inflation coming back, and we're all these other data points about that, we're talking about all

these red flags. So I think once that's that is eliminated of the extremity and rate rises, you'll see a small sort of rally in markets, depending of course on the narrative that Dreme Pal presents, but I think that's the base case. He is exactly like if if they're raised by certainly five and then it just drops the hammer that I don't know, extremely neged and pessimistic, then

I don't think we're going to get much reaction. But I I think that he probably will keep the similar narrative to last time, but it will be seventy that cuts out the risk of the hundred. We'll get a small rally, and then the next months, if situations continue as is, if inflation continues to top, we'll get some more recovery there in risk assets. So that's kind of

my base case. And then when I think about that in the line with where the deep value I sees and in bitcoin and crypto, I think that we've got a great opportunity the moment that those opportunities can last

a while. Prices can obviously always get lower UM and it, but generally speaking, I feel like it's a it's basically a bioside opportunity in the next six to twelve months if you're allocating to an a class like crypto for example, and crypto is like the beta extra beta risk on on equities, so we haven't even seen the last sort a few weeks that sort of I was looking at

a chart today actually that it's starting. You know, there's obviously that type correlation with but with time to say, bitcoin moving first in terms of risk, so it's being process as a pure risk asset, even more so than than UM than equities. I don't expect that the last long term, but we should say, and you know, impacts at least new terms sooner in the crypto space. So UM, we're talking about the risk assets really being affected by this UM I think, you know, I've made some statements.

I've seen you put out some tweets as well, which is like, you know, bitcoin's trading like a risk on asset, but it's not a risk on asset like that. But it's not. We're always looking for the mismatch of perception and reality. Yeah. I saw an article came out from the guys over at Bloomberg Intelligence and they said that they thought they could see bitcoin um moving to trade more of a risk off asset by Q four of and we move more towards like a bond or a gold kind of a format. Uh, what do you see

as far as that mismatch? I mean, is it is it? Is it being traded like that? But it's not. I mean, what's that perception there? And yeah, when it makes the leaked out. Yeah, that's something that we think about a lot. I think there is a big misalignment or this a big perception gap in what bitcoin specifically bitcoin is um. You know, it's more or less designed for exactly this mac and economic issues that we're facing right now. It it's hard coded for hundred years. We know what the

inflation is gonna be. We know it's lower than gold and every other alternative until you know, we could talk about the theory, but generally speaking, it's super low, rock solid inflation policy, inflation heads a preserver of value, but

it's and traded the exact opposite. Even though we have ten years of data which shows that it has the highest frisk adjustent returns of of all that asset classes, it's being treated as just pure speculation by I and my belief is it's just primarily institutions that have entered the market in the last eighteen twenty four months or so, and the allocations are probably two percent or whatever it may be, but relatively small competitive overall portfolio, and they

and people in general don't fully understand what bitcoin is yet. People still working out how to value it. There's new metrics coming out all the time, there's always disagreements and what's better or worse than doing that, And because of that, it just gets lumped into the speculation bin. And if there's any risk in overall markets, that's the first thing to go, is where I see it at the moment.

That's why we see bitcoin trading like basically junk in in an environment it was perfectly built for um And that's interesting. You mentioned that report for Q four and that that it could change and that you know, a bit more like gold. And I do think that will happen.

I don't know if it's Q four because I haven't seen the evidence of it happened yet, so it could be a long time, so I can't put a time on it, but I do think there will be a drastic shift, basically an inversion of that that death, that how it's perceived, how trades, and that correlation. It's also like if you look at the ten years, a big koin the correlation with bitcoin to all of them equities

marks for examples. It fluctuates around zero pretty much that whole time, except for the last twelve eighteen months, which again aligns with that window when institutions have started to adopt or at least get involved with bitcoin. So I think it's a kind of learning phase. Perhaps it will require a shift in macro markets. Perhaps it requires just time to resolve, but I think it does resolve at some point. I want to dig more into that, and I have a couple of tweets that you had put

out that I want to discuss um. But I know that you know your your fund is is trading bitcoin, you're trying to create alpha better return than than bitcoin itself buy and hold strategy. Um. So the big question is I saw you were in a space is not too long ago, and I didn't get to listen to it, but I saw, um uh the I think I think the title was bitcoin to twelve thousand or thirty thousand,

which happens first? Yeah, yeah, that's right. Yeah. So as somebody who's trading bitcoin and trying to generate alpha on top of bitcoin, what do you think comes first? Twelve thousand? Yeah, doesn't matter. Yeah. Well yeah, so I can answer that question with a with my personal opinion, um, but it doesn't really reflect how we mauntagock capital. Um. So that's one thing we would deploy kind of a variety of quantity strategies across different assets in the crypto space. The

overall goals doutform Bitcoin long term. But yeah, for a personal opinion, when I look at these these date value ratings, I'm saying, when I just look at the technicals of where the chart is, I would say, you know my and and given now where also where I think Macro's and in the leading into the end of the year early next year, I think that the risk reward is

definitely skewed to the upside. Um. I don't see why we couldn't necessarily take out the lows of the of price, so in the seventeens, for example, but if I had to, you know, put put my money on it, which I wouldn't make it bet like this, but if I did, I would I would say that the mid to high twenties comes before the the low teens, for example, in price. But again that's not how we we manage a capital. But I just see so much, as I've mentioned, so

much negative sentiments, so much fear in the market. Everything's priced from the downside. Um, I see that in the next six to nine months, call it, we have a ragin change in macro. And then I see one and four year value opportunities in bitcoin and made that just says that, Yeah, the rest of water is drastically um

to the upside. And also this asset classes still sisson stood add that on top at some point we don't know when, but once that that changes, and I'm sure it will in the coming years, that that will again add another factor of potential appreciation. Yeah, I think the longer term picture seems easier to to to to decipher

the short term pictures hard. It's like m a lot of people and and even the market you were kind of referring to earlier about the shorts and the longs and whatnot in the options market, I think, but overall sentiment seems to think the market, like the whole world is going to end, and you know, the market easily drop from here, which they could. Um. You know, you've got plenty of people calling for that. Um. You know, some of them have been calling it for a decade.

But we got the Jeremy Grantham's or whatever saying, you know, we're at we're a textbook retracement. We're about to have another big plunge. Of course, we've got Harry Dan who has been calling it for a decade, and we have those people. If if we saw the markets plunge another fifty from here, then I guess the twelve thousand dollar bitcoin comes into play. Um, But maybe we don't. Maybe we don't see that, And I think there's there's definitely

a camp for that argument as well. If you zoom out and look at like a weekly chart of the NASDAC and the SMP five, they're holding their trendline like perfectly. Um, so is that kind of how you see it? Back to kind of the I guess the point we made earlier, right, like the macro's driving the bus. So like if if the if the markets plunge from here, then probably that

twelve thousand comes into play. And so I guess you'd have to ask yourself, do you think the markets from here or do you think they kind of um the rate, the rate pauses, the rates pause, and maybe we kind of hold this market structure. Yeah, so I basically agree with what you're saying. Um, you know, if it also depends on timing. If markets, if we finished this this meeting and markets drop, then probably we're gonna look at big one shot will be a blood both ya um.

But yeah, that's not my base case. Definitely wouldn't be surprising some downside volatility. Um. But I do think that as I mentioned, you know, if you give it a few months and I think that the trend will be you know, we might have this consolidation phase but we're in right now, which we have had for three months really, but I think about the Yeah, as I mentioned, the risk rewater is more or less to the upside. It

also depends on your time arizon as an investor. If you're if you're training this on a day to day level, then you know you can you could argue either way very very easily. But if you're also if you're talking about years, then again for me, it all stacks up to the upside. Let's talk about some of your metrics that you look at. So I know you're looking at this, these hash ribbons and on chain metrics is some of the tools that you use. Um, the hash ribbons, that's

regarding the miners and what the miners are doing. Yeah, exactly. So the the hash ribbons is you know, simply described basically looking at the trends in in in hash rate, and hash rate is a measure of basically how much mining energy is committed to the network, how how much security it has UM. So hash from's itself is just looking for major capitulations in hash rate, and that usually happens when you've had some kind of hit to price

um or could be even to supply side. You may have rising energy prices like we have globally, which which caused the profit margins of of bitcoin miners to get squeezed and at some point the inefficient miners kind of stop mining, or they give up, or they sell their their bitcoin stack to cover their costs, and that creates extra cell side pressure. Price kind of takes another leg down at some point that basis, you're left with the efficient that the most efficient minors, and then you get

to you start to get a recovery. And when you get that recovery along with kind of price recovery, it's been a good bye a signal in the past, So we had that occur in I think it's about three or four weeks ago. Now has driven by UM, which is a strong multi month call it by a signal UM. This one also happens to be in the later part of the bitcoin harving cycle, and those ones historically they've been the best performance that said UM comparing minus today

to four years ago. They're relatively a smaller element of the network simply because we have so many other big players, so many big institutions, investors, companies like micro Strategy, et cetera. That add that they control quite but a supplied to so we should expect it into the future. The miners may have less impact in overall price direction than they did in the past. I still think the signals valid.

It's still impacting our portfolio to the to the positive side. Um, but it's not the complete it's not the only thing we look at. Bitcoin investing in general is a lot more sophistic today. I think you need to consider a lot more data points. Also, obviously macro's have discussed most of today. So it's one element. It's if I had to choose one metric and only only invest based on that metric, it would still be that one today. Um, exactly, if I could only choose one thing to buy, it

would be it would be based on that. But yeah, it would be. It wouldn't be wise to basically decisions purely based on that one. Yeah. Never, there's never one one indicator that's a conclusive. Never. You need as many indicators as you possibly can find. Um. When it comes

to the hash ravens, I understand what you're saying. So you have now these big institutions who are holding considerable amounts of bitcoin, hundreds of thousands of bitcoins at a time, and you know, potentially never putting them back into the market, right, and so markets, you know, price action moves on supply and demand. So if you have these you know, big institutions, the micro strategies buying the bitcoin and locking it away in the cold storage, it never goes back up. Then

that affects the supply demand metric the minor. Although to your point you're making, I can see that, right, which is, um, they're not the big institutions anymore now we have the big publicly traded institutions et cetera. However, the miners are the ones producing it, right, So if they're gonna sell everything they produce every day or every month or reorder, and then we still have that that pressure that's constantly

on the price action. Whereas if they decide to hold, then that takes all that new supply off the market or or considerable piece. So um, to your point, I mean, I see what you're saying. I think I haven't studied the hash ribbons as as in depth as you have, I'm sure, but just thinking through it just quickly, it seems like, um, what that new supply does every day, week, month or quarter probably has a lot to do with

that price action. So we did see we did see the miners capitulate, which actually I had thought maybe was a sign of the bottom, right, so we had the cascade and effect from terror Luna to Celsius and Voyager and all that boom boom boom, boom boom, and then the miners were forced to coup chually and it looked like they had sold everything plus some of their you know, at least what we saw from the public trade to ones um. And so now does the hash ribbon? Is

that what that picks up as well? The minor capitulation to pick up their machines coming online and offline, both both that they're they're all kind of in corporate and the hash rate and I agree with I me and you just said that it still has a big impact. It's still they still are a big influencer, I would say on on price and network. Of course, I kind of think if you look at it, you know, the inflation curve would be quite as kind of a logarithmic

curve zero more or less of a hundred years. And their impact kind of or their relative impact on the network follows that that chart, and that than that, that inflation rate coul Big hobeviously harves every every four years. So you know, so in two years from now, they're going to have half as much in new supplier coming in, So I think the relative impact that a network from

a supply side will reduce with time. So I still think it's very relevant, just a bit less than two years ago, but a lot more than it will be in two years time. It's the interesting thing, though, is that a lot of these things capitulation occur at the same time. So you just mentioned you know, I think three to see and all these bankruptcies and Celsius and other lending platforms just blowing up in the last couple of months, and it was exactly in that window that

the miners were also going through the capitulation. So when when they're struggling, it tends to be obviously that other large institutions are struggling from from similar kind of price stress. All right, what about the on chain data? Do you do you think the hack? I mean, I guess the hash ribbons are on chain data as well. UM, And I guess you've already said that that's probably your number one metric that you're looking at. Um. Are there other on chain data metrics that you that you know are

pretty important? Definitely. We run in one strategy on our PORTFOLO, which only looks at on chain and some macro market metrics. So it looks at over thirty five of them to basically go longer into cash with that portfolio every day, and it just rewaits them using machine learning algorithm to find which have been most predicative of price essentially, so

there's definitely value in it. Um also just published a very short article a couple of days ago on s l r V ribbons, which is super basic metric on the s LRV ratio, which is essentially the ratio of short term holders to long term holders and and the relative activity in the network. So when you have these big bubbles and bigcoin you know, for example, we'll go up to seventeen up to sixtk more recently, you have

a lot of active short term holders. They turn over their coins, they're holding it, you know, for days, short periods of time, and then when prices collapse, you often see the short term traders and speculators kind of disappear from the market and you're left with the long term holders, all those that hold for six months or more. And

that's kind of what forms the base. So in markets, when those are aut that ratio between short and long term, it kind of just oscillates right UM, and we're at that bottom point kind of now where you have a lot of long term holder activity almost no short term holder activity, and it tends to the new cycle or the new kind of sustainable price recovery tends to occur when you do start to get that kind of new growth, that new grassroots movement from short term holders entering the

market again regaining interest because that is also obviously associated with new wallets being created on network, so they're just general network adoption of bitcoin UM. So the trend is still to the downside on that metric, which again that

can be lagging. It's it's not going to time perfect tops and bottoms UM, but it does give good times to risk on the risk off and generally speaking, where the metric is at in terms of level, it's below point oh four, which is historically again lines up with the bottom of most bigcoin bere cycles. So that's just

one example of a metric UM. The article I wrote on it just create a very basic strategy too long and go to cash using that metric, and it outperforms big cooined both three times in the last five years. And it has the set less down to all. So it's just one example. It's not meant to be an isolated training strategy, but it just shows that there is value in on chain and yeah, we definitely look at it quite closely in our in our approach. So to uh kind of summarize all of this, the macro pictures

the one driving the bus, so keep an eye on that. Um, if we look at the indicators, hash, ribbons as well as like on chain data. UM, I'll put out a couple of videos on it as well. Um, you know, finding bitcoin's fair market value looking at the you know, age of coins moving, um, things like that, it looks like anything under twenty thousand is USD is a pretty

generational buying opportunity. Bitcoin's valuation is historically cheap. Um. We don't know when bottoms come until we're looking backwards on them. So we just typically try to buy when it's cheap and sell when it's expensive, or if you're a trader, or add to your portfolio by buying when things are cheap. And we can see this historically cheap, Um doesn't mean it can't get cheaper. It doesn't mean it can't stay cheap for a long time. Right, Um, it's kind of

the overall picture that you see. Yeah, that's that's perfectly summarized. I think regardless of when you went to the marketing crypto, you have to come in with a long term mindset of at least trying what if if you're just gonna buy an hoole, at least have that four year, that full cycle in mind. And this is my personal opinion anyway,

not a four year or a full year. Four is is the big coin having cycle, and I think that is a good way to capture um, you know, good opportunities, I would say, and and expect sizeable down draws, you know, plus shouldn't be unexpected. Even if you enter now. I don't think you're going to see that kind of level of down roads were talked about, but you should be prepared for it, and not that shouldn't be your opportunity

to exit. I suppose that at a loss. But yeah, of course it really depends on anyone's individual investment objective. But yeah, I do see huge value on the bigcoin sidey on chain side cycle timing. We're also between years two and three, which has always been the bottom the big cooin with hit normal cycle down drows and then on top of that, I believe we have a shift change in macro coming. Also at some point it's going

to decouple from macro. So, assuming the fundamentals for big coin remain and healthy, assuming we don't have people just abandoned network, but you know, long term holds continue to grow, most metrics of undervaluation continue to remain strong. At some point, every incremental drop in macro or equities isn't going to

have the same magnitude of impact on bigcoin. So there is a point where, you know, and bigcoin, if if if everything kind of kept falling, it's market size becomes small and smaller, and it just there's a point where it just breaks apart. And I think in that you know, called decoupling or just at least lessened correlations, it will behave differently as it has always in the past. Yeah, I agree. So it's at some point it's gonna gonna decouple. The perception and reality is going to catch up. And

I think we're seeing them. You know, the dollar, the dollar, the Dixie, the dollar index is being so strong it's just wiping out currencies all around the world, and those currencies are failing and people are jumping ship trying to put their value into anything other than those local currencies, and a lot of them are moving to bitcoin because of the permission less, borderless aspect of it, and so maybe it's controlled by the US entities, but the rest

of the world's kind of waking up and moving to it, and so eventually that that tide will shift. But yeah, well, good, good, good content. I appreciate the time going through that. I think we'll wrap it up right there. I want to make sure in the notes down below for everyone listening, we'll link your your Twitter account. Um, I have that that media Marcle article you put together about those ribbons will link to that as well anything else that you

want to shout out. No, let's just been my my pleasure. Mark, it was good to chat markets with you. Um yeah, you can obviously check out I'm most active on Twitter. Otherwise out you can get get in touched by my website Caprioli dot com. Yeah, being my pleasure, and thank you very much for the time today. All right, thanks to check that out and the links down below, and thanks for listening.