So I love cycles. Like I said, I'm kind of working on this big thesis pulling a few different cycles, and I love them because you can kind of use this historical reference to kind of maybe help predict the future a little bit. And Mark Twins says, it doesn't repeeve it a rhymes. That's a big value problem of bit coin is that there's a limited twenty one million supply. Now, there had to be a certain way to issue those
coins until we reach that mark. And what Sotshi came up with was an idea where every four years, the number of newly issued coins per block, every ten minute approximate block is reduced by half what we're seeing across all markets. And I am really the base of economics is people rushing to scarce assets. You could almost look at this kind of like Radalio's short and long term debt cycle theory, where he's got these oscillating waves of short term debt cycles and you've got the long term one.
I talk so much about how much how many dollars have been created by the FED, but bitcoins that a global reserve asset, and so it really you need to look at the total amount of global dollar but then COVID hit and that's like a mega, mega bearish event. But that bearish event brings in focus why bitcoin is valuable. You don't have to trust your government, you don't have to trust banks. It seemed to kind of actually respond
like gold did um has done. If we look at gold compared to stocks, and like the two thousand eight crash, um, it takes an initial dip but then immediately rebounds really quickly. A lot of folks think, oh, it's a store value asset, it's a risk off asset. It must perfectly be like have a perfect, perfect inverse correlation with the markets. Well, nothing perfectly does that. It there's there's an evan flow
to how prices move relative to other asset prices. What happened in golden bitcoin in March twelve, that was a liquidity crunch. Uh, investors across the world, we're gonna be margin called because a lot of the institutional folks go a leverage the juice the returns they're getting margin called, and they were selling anything they could, even safe haven store value sets assets like golden bitcoin. Hey everyone, welcome
to another episode of the Market Destructor Show. And today I am joined by Dan held for a second time. He's the director of growth Marketing at Cracking. Um. He's really good at mark keting, but he's also really good at forecasting or talking about where some of these kind of trends that are growing are going. And so M he's written a bunch of papers. If you haven't seen him, you definitely should. Will link to the latest one down below.
But Dan, thanks so much for joining Mark. Thanks for having me excited to jam on a couple different topics today. Yeah awesome. So, UM, I know you're the director of growth marketing Cracking, but you've also been involved in a lot of other roles inside kind of the bitcoin space as well. UM, maybe just give us a little bit of background on, like you know, what you've been working on,
Like how long you've been doing this kind of thing? Sure? Yeah, so I've been in the crypto space eight years, which kind of makes me a dinosaur. Yeah, I'm thirty three years old and I've got gray hairs. I don't know if you can see it on my webcam. I've got some gray hairs coming in. Um, I sort of stumbled and bubbled my way into tech. I would use this as a word of encouragement for folks who want to get into tech. It's definitely possible. UM. I was formerly
worked on a small investment firm. I built a mobile app with my buddy. It was an app that was called zero block at real time market data news feeds, kind of like a block folio equivalent in terms of functionality and popularity. Back in we got up watching dot com. From there, tried out different hats of product marketing, growth marketing, and UM product across a couple of different crypto companies. I worked at Uber on writer growth and growth marketing team,
so over at HQ. From there, came back to came back to Bitcoin crypto, co founded a company we got bought by Cracking. At Cracking, I stood up the growth marketing team and that's how I'm here today. But yeah, my my marketing background has been kind of a fun mix of working and UM different crypto companies, working at companies like Uber, and then also my personal brand. So it's it's been pretty exciting. Yeah, and yeah, you've you've been working on your personal brand doing a good job
with that. I've I've been impressed, and I'm a marketing guy as well, so that's cool. UM So someone that's been around for this long. I mean, you've you've seen a lot, right. Uh, it doesn't sound that long, but it but it is right when you look at the time that bitcoin has kind of been here. UM. So I want to jump right in and hey, guys, let me just interrupt this interview real quick, just to plug
the show sponsor, and that is block Fi. Now. Block five is doing amazing things in the bitcoin finance space. As a matter of fact, they've cracked some really big news by bringing on the x c f TC UM chair Chris gian Carlo Um. And they are one of the most transparent, most heavily regulated UM companies inside the United States, which gives me a lot of trust into what their services are. Now, I've recently did a video talking about how to retire off bitcoin and you can
do that by leveraging debt and interest against bitcoin. And Block five is the number one company in the United States or maybe in the world to go to and use UM. They are leading the charge their paying interest on your bitcoin if you park it with them, or you can borrow against it. Now, as I broke down in that video, you can borrow against your bitcoin and when you take debt against it. It's not taxable. It's
not a taxable event. You can use that debt for anything that you want, including to live off of, to leverage up and buy more, or roll it into another asset. UM. You can do something like I've done recently, like sell some real estate put that money into bitcoin. Now as that bitcoin price has risen, I'm able to borrow against it and go back and buy the same real estate or something similar, and I still own the bitcoin, and I also own the new asset as well. Lots of
ways you can do this UM. And Block five is the company that I recommend. Down in the description, I have a link that you can click on. If you choose to use that link, you can earn up the two d fifty dollars in bitcoin just for using that link. So check out block Fine, now let's just start talking
about um kind of the space and talking about the cycles. UM. So it seems like and I know you've done extensive research and writing on these subjects, and so that's why I love having you on to talk about this kind of stuff. But UM, right now, obviously bitcoin has is in this bowl market cycle. UM, it's it's starting to attract a lot of attention right now. Um, but it seems like there, you know, there are these cycles and and I'm actually working on the big thesis about all
different types of cycles. But bitcoin has these cycles that like seem to operate in four years based off of having cycles. Um, you want to just explain that for a little bit. Yeah, So for those unfamiliar, those who may be new to bitcoin, bitcoin has an issuance curve. So bitcoin are issued over a certain curve over a very long period of time, and bitcoin will be issued until we hit a twenty one million hard cap. That's a big value prop of bitcoin is that there's a
limited twenty one million supply. Now, there had to be a certain way to issue those coins until we reach that mark. And what Stoshi came up with was an idea where every four years, the number of newly issued coins per block every ten minute approximate block is reduced by half, and that that happens until it's like an asum totic curve, until it hits twenty one million at
a very far day in the future. Now, when we look at bitcoins price in conjunction with these havings, so the moment in which that reward has dropped, or that subsidy duly minted coin is dropped in the block reward. We see a corresponding bull run occur a year or two later, and this is ocurred three times now. So you could say it's coincidental. You could say it doesn't predict the future, but certainly it means something because we see bitcoins boom bus cycle or a big bull run
and then a drop correspond from that. You go having ten bull run, having bull run, having and now we're in the middle of a bull run. So these cycles are kind of like the micro cycles of bitcoin's economy, um, and they've largely let a lot of development volume, users interest, and we're in the middle of one right now. Yeah,
So I love cycles. Like I said, I'm kind of working on this big thesis pulling a few different cycles, and I love them because you can kind of use this historical reference to kind of maybe help predict the future a little bit. You know. Mark Twain says it doesn't repeat it at rhymes um. And so if we look at that, now, three havings is not a lot of data. I mean, it's not conclusive evidence, but it is something, right, It's all we have, Um, it looks cych um that we kind of have. Maybe it peaks
out about eighteen months after the Having cycle. Um, is that kind of what you've seen through your research. Yeah, I mean there's a window of time that it typically peaks within. And there are the last two cycles there have been a certain amount of you know, they're within a few months of each other or within a few days. Actually I forget. I forget how granular it gets. I forget, you know it Also it depends on do you do.
Do you look at the cycle based on the Having to the top of the cycle, or do you look at the bottom like the bear the lowest part of the cycle to the top of the Having. And so I forget which one has which sort of time period. But yes, generally a year and a half and a half and we're looking at the peak of the next bull run. I think it was May that we had the Having, so a year plus that is May add add three to six months and we're looking at Q
three Q four. Right. But um, you know, one of the things I really want to dig in with you today is that you wrote you wrote a paper talking about a supercycle, and so obviously we're having cycles, and there's three cycles that we've had so far, but you have this thesis that there's this super cycle. I like, I like that word. It sounds sounds pretty dramatic. I think a lot of people like that. Um. But I guess I guess that's kind of sits on a premise
that maybe this time is different. I've been saying quite a bit that the world we're going into is not the one we've come out of, right, the FED, COVID, every change everything. But you also kind of agree that maybe I think, for your paper, um, that this time is different, and maybe this cycle is going to be quite a bit different than the last ones. I totally agree. I do think this cycle is different. And what's funny about data is if you wait till you have all
the data, then the moment is probably too late. Right, So, when it comes to investing and when it comes to product decision making, because I've worked on both products and marketing teams, you have to operate with limited information. That's always the operating environment. You don't have perfect information. So, yes, we've got a couple havings. We've seen a couple of bull runs. Some go, well, we don't. This is you know, data science wise, this isn't correlated. I'm like, that's the
best we've got, and it's pretty good. And certainly there's some qualitative reasons because we've got the quantitative side. There's a qualitative reason why, um, these cycles occur. Now, is this cycle different than the other cycles? This is where I coined the term supercycle most people, by the way, and I'm not even sure if you know this. I coined that term in during the bear market. UM I wrote in the Held Report, my weekly news that are I wrote in December the sort of revisiting of the
um of the supercycle theory. Now in twenty you were kind of you were back then and you were kind of predict predicting that we were going to go into that at some point. Yeah, And so I think that gives it a lot more credence than a lot of people thinking thinking that I made it up during the bull run, because it's easy to be bullish in the
bull run. This was in the middle of the bear market where I basically postulated that what if this cycle, what if bitcoins microcycle, this four year boom and bus cycle, what if a boon correspond with a macro bust, a macro recession, a macro depression. So macro would be like the mainstream financial world, your typical they typically have eight
to ten year cycles. You could almost look at this kind of like Ray Dalio's short and long term debt cycle theory, where he's got these oscillating waves of short term debt cycles and you've got the long term one. This is bitcoins equivalent of that. So if you're Raydalio fan, I think you'll find this analogy kind of fun um. And what I hypothesize is if we have a recession while bitcoins in a bowl run, that is the make
magic moment. And Bitcoin was born in the two thousand and eight financial crisis as an antidote to poor central banking policy. But Bitcoin's existence has been in largely a very very productive bull market. So what happens when people start to question the nature of their money and question the nature of their government's control over money, then Bitcoin's value props shines the most. And that's what we have now. COVID, I mean I put the COVID. It was a negative event.
I'm not trying to celebrate COVID. COVID certainly made people go wake up and go, wait a second, I'm not sure if I can trust my government with my money, and it just takes that sort of moment. But this was much more intense than I even hypothesized, because I was like, Oh, there'll be a normal recession, we're due for one. But then COVID hit and that's like a mega, mega Barish event. But that Barrish event brings in focus
why bitcoin is valuable. You don't have to trust your government, you don't have to trust banks, and that's where the supercycle theory, I think has a largely got a huge check mark from that event. And there's other check marks too that we can dig into later, but that one on a micro macro cycle. I think like we're having a Bitcoin bowl run in the midst of a moment
when everyone comes to realize the value of bitcoin. I don't think we're going to see a normal price movement of We can go into some numbers, some of the predictions that you know, I would say an aggregate analyst are predicting, Yeah, yeah, I want to dig into that. Well, well, we're gonna leave that towards in make sure everybody sticks around and listen to kind of those numbers of where
we were maybe we're going. But I guess to kind of dig into what you said, obviously that makes sense, right, people are all of a sudden starting to go, what the heck is happening to our money? The money sippply was created the last twelve months, all those things. UM, So I think I think there was that distrust that
was like the psychological factor. But then we did have six seven trillion dollars dumped into the markets, so we have we have that as well, So I think it's kind of it's getting it from both sides, right, a rush of liquidity into the markets. Um. And the other thing I think is that what we're seeing across all markets, and i'm's really the base of economics is people rushing to scarce assets. And so we're seeing you know, the best beach runner lake from property going up way more
than other properties, for example. And so bitcoin might be the most scarce financial asset, and maybe that's one reason why it's going to more than others. Certainly bitcoin's moment to shine as a twenty one million fixed supply comes into focus. In this sort of moment, we're seeing other scarce assets like gold and real estates start to go up in price. Two. I'm going to Austin this weekend of visits of friends, and I've noticed that the apartment has come back. I'm I'm moving out there in a
month and a half. Yeah, it's it's already set in stone. We're just figuring out where we want to live. I did a scouting mission before in terms of checking out different neighborhoods, but now it's time to go put some ink on paper and make it happen. So I'm thrilled. I'm a Texan. So I've been out in California, in San Francisco for eight years, working in tech. Still gonna work in tech. It's time to come home. Um, tax wise and personal belief wise. I just feel like I'm
more comfortable out there. Um when it comes to you know, the what we're seeing is, you know, when we look at inflation numbers, and we look at inflation calculations like CPI, they don't include a lot of metrics or a lot of prices that are inherent to living. They exclude some of these costs, which is ridiculous, Like, for example, they only include rent, but they don't include the the rise
in in the average home price. So we're seeing acid bubbles occur in equities and in real estate, where it's very symptomatic of all this money printing. And by the way, I looked this metric up recently, it's twenty five trillion dollars that have been printed globally during COVID by governments
trillion and bitcoins only at a trillion dollar market cap. Yeah, these are the sort of moments when you just realize the size and the enormity of the value prop for a bitcoin, the the total dress ball market of what bitcoin can evolve and grow into in terms of size. Yeah,
that's a great point. You know, I talked so much about how much how many dollars have been created by the FED, but bitcoins are a global reserve asset and so really you need to look at the total amount of global dollars and so that's a that's a great
point you bring up. Now, Um, you did mention that bitcoin was created, you know, in the two thousand nine kind of as a response to two crash um, and so it's it's you know, pretty apparent that bitcoin hasn't really seen a big bear market, and so you know, there's always the debate between you know, is it risk on, is a risk off? You know, where does that fit? Um?
But I think that you know, what happened last year and that COVID plunge or whatever you want to call that, it seemed to kind of actually respond like gold did um has done. If we look at gold compared to stocks, and like the two thousand eight crash, UM, it takes an initial dip but then immediately rebounds really quickly. And Uh, I think we kind of saw that. Does that kind of give you maybe a little bit of taste of what we may expect from that in the future. Yeah,
great question. So a lot of folks think, oh, it's a store value asset, it's a risk off asset. It must perfectly be like have a perfect, perfect inverse correlation with the markets. Well, nothing perfectly does that. There's there's an ebb and flow to how prices move relat to other asset prices. What happened in golden bitcoin in March that was a liquidity crunch. Uh, Investors across the world, we're getting margin called because a lot of the institutional
folks go leverage to juice the returns. They're getting margin called and they were selling anything they could, even safe haven store value sets assets like golden bitcoin. So I think that um, that moment was a good example of a liquidity crunch, not necessarily a lack of confidence in
bitcoin or gold as a global store of value asset. Um, what's kind of cool about bitcoin is that bitcoin as referenced by Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he states that bitcoin is a speculative store of value. I think that encapsulates this perfectly. It's inherent properties make it a good long term risk off asset, but it's price volatility is very much a speculation as to its
future utility of a store of value asset. But what's funny is that this speculative nature of bitcoin is entirely how we heard about it and how it is gains adoption, price goes higher. You hear about it, you talk about it, you buy it, you tell your friends about it, and the loop continues. It's a viral loop. It's essentially a viral loop baked into bitcoin. And um, you know, when we look at this from how does like a money go from zero? From a white paper and a group
of nerdy dudes who want to talk about cryptotomy. Hey, sorry to interrupt this video just one more time. I'm not running Google ads, so it's actually way less interruption than I normally would have on a video. UM, and that's because it's sponsored by block five. UM. They are opening up the world of bitcoin and financial products offering to pay you interest on your bitcoin. Um better than own in a rental property that you have to manage and control and have the risks. You can just earn
interest on it, or you can leverage against it. Now, I plan to hold my bitcoin forever and literally never sell my bitcoin. So how do you do that? Well, if I need money, I don't want to sell that bitcoin. I'm gonna pay tax on it, all right, I'm gonna end up with less and I don't have the bitcoin anymore. So a better way to do it is to borrow against the bitcoin. So I've put all my money into bitcoin. If I want to buy a car, or I want to buy a house, I can borrow against it at
very very low competitive rates. Get my house, get my car, whatever that may be, and get to keep the bitcoin. I've done a whole video on this. You can find it. I'll link it down to the description below. How to retire off a bitcoin without paying taxes, and you can do that with block five services. I'll link to the video game, but though I'm also going to put a
link to block fire. If you choose to click on that link to check them out, you can earn up to two in free bitcoin just for using that link. And that's it. Let's go ahead and get back to the interview biography. How does it go from that to the mainstream? And bitcoin has done this through these speculative cycles. I don't use the word speculative and a negative connotation. It's simply people discovering discovering bitcoin to discovering why it's valuable.
Some stick around it because they realized the value. Some just came in to speculate. Um. But yeah, with this, you know, Bitcoin I think is increasingly being recognized as a goal two point oh. And this was a checkmark for the supercycle theory. In no one recognized bitcoin is gold two point other than us, other than us, other than our our group of believers. All the institutions though you've got, You've got investment banks, hedge funds, and hedge
fund managers who are legends. Tesla micro Strategy either putting bitcoin on their balance sheet. These are gigantic check marks for like a supercycle theory. Now again, I'm not saying it's likely to happen. I'm saying it could happen. You know, big bitcoin moves in mysterious ways. Who knows how what the future holds. I can't predict the future. I'm just describing a potential outcome that no one was describing at the time, because I think this time might be different.
But yeah, I mean we're seeing every institution across the world say bitcoin is gold two point Oh, I've waited eight years to see this moment. This is not like the other cycles, the other cycles where we were considered bitcoin is considered a very risky investment that only retail traders get into. No, you've got like giant investment banks going oh yeah, Bitcoin's like gold. Yeah, this is huge. This is a huge moment, a huge moment for a bitcoin. Yeah.
I think, um, you know, obviously we don't we don't know the future. But looking at cycles and understand how technology rolls out, and I'll understand all these different things that gives you different perspectives and so um, I always like take like the macro view because, UM, I think it's easier to kind of see the future, the long term future than the short term future. And when you see these actions being taken, as you said, by these institutions,
you know where that leads to eventually. But before we get into that, I want to I do want to talk about, um, how the makeup of the people in the space has changed and what that means for the future, because I think that really builds into that super psychle But before we do that, UM, having you know, someone like you that's been in Silicon Valley for this long, UM, it's it's interesting and I'm curious your perspective on this because you mentioned Jerome Power calling it like a store value.
I think China came out like last week and said it's like a store of value. I mean, we're seeing that from these even City Bank and JP have been coming out and kind of saying these things. But yet we still have all these other people like, uh, you know, whether it's Mark Cuban or we have you know, seemingly very smart technology driven people. Um tally recently came out the same thing is that it's it's not a currency,
it's not a store value. It's too speculative, and it seems that like they've completely forgotten that technology has to evolve, Like just because it's not something today doesn't mean it's not going to be something in the future. So, as a Silicon Valley kind of tech guy, what's your thought on that? Yeah, there's a couple of things here. One to address the val Tildy question, where a lot of people are just kind of put off by that, Like, how did you think how did you think any major,
gigantic valuable company ever got that big right? It wasn't a nice, perfect linear function from zero dollar market share to like a one dollar markets or two dollar markets, you know, it was like these ebbs and flows of investor interest and execution. Bitcoin in a similar function, does that, you know a silicon value though it's been a little bit disappointing. Silicon Valley tech people inherently don't get bitcoin
their first inclination. And I wrote about this too because it was a very rare thing and a bunch of folks agreed with me too, which at first I wrote this and I didn't. I was like, man, I'm I gonna put myself out here and are people are gonna be like cool? Dan, that's a nice opinion. A bunch of people in tech who are in a bitcoin came out and they were like, this is exactly how the
system works. Silicon Valley has two primary uh function to primary players vcs, so venture capital or people who fund startups and startups. Vcs are constantly looking at what's next, whatever is hot they want to pile in on. They don't care, and most of them aren't subject matter experts. They can't be experts on every single sector. So they either outsourced that bringing people, or they just choose a theme. They're thematic. It's a thematic investment into a R v R, drones, bitcoin,
chat bots, you name it. And what happens is you go deploy capital and the vcs, no one out of a hundred make it. So they just look for whatever is hot, super hot, and and they put in capital there. It was one of the most disappointing things to find out ever about Silicon Valley. Venture capitalists are not risk tickers. Risk tickers at all. They claim to be, but they're not. Yeah, so what happens is they will never go against the
grain versus all the other vcs. There's top it's like a top four VC couple of VC firms, they choose what's hot. And if they don't choose what's hot, what happens is that the LPs, so the investors in your fund, they go, well, why aren't you talking about this other subject that they're talking about. Why are you investing in something else? That's not the common narrative, And it's very counterintuitive because you would expect vcs to be into contrary
and investments. That's the whole point, right. What happens is that they're beholding to the LP still and the LPs will give them a lot of uh, you know, they'll they give them a lot of ship if they don't get into these like more thematic plays that are endorsed by the hot hot vcs. There's also a joke, you know, if you get into there's the hot vcs, and if you can get in with them, it's kind of like
the same no one ever got fired for buying an IBM. Well, no one ever got fired for investing alongside a six, right, so the same. So that was kind of a big element. And I'll weave this all together at a big point here pretty quick. So that's a big element that they're not contrarian, and that they're largely chase narratives, and the narratives evan flow very quickly. Like does anyone anyone talk
to talk about chatbots? Yeah? Remember that whole trend for a while, super hot or a r v R. I'm not wearing an air headset and I'm a gamer, like and I've got a high. Do you think it's also though, because like, um, why the medical industry won't embrace CBD, you know, or you know, cannabis right because they it's natural. They can't own it. There's no money to be made there, so they want to they want to create their own version of uh, you know, a synthetic version of it.
They can patent, is it something maybe like that where you know vcs they can't make any money off bitcoin, so they want to create the next all cooin kind of thing. Yeah, that's certainly an element. I think part of this as well is like um, VCS prescribed the narrative to bitcoin that like, oh, bitcoin is good to disrupt PayPal. Vcs don't even grock the idea of like disrupting governments, and that is that is next level, like next level revolutionary, and how do you make money? Off that.
You know, they can't really go pitch their LPs. Hey, I bought bitcoin. It is hoddled. You need to be an active investor, actively investing in companies. And what's interesting is that hoddling Bitcoin will likely outperform any company that you invest in the crypto space. So it certainly has. It certainly has even coin based I think it's maybe
on par like the best performing startup in crypto. I think like if you look at Series A check or seed check to I p O, bitcoin is still outperforms, which is wild, which is nuts, and your risk is far lower with bitcoin. So yeah, one they can't make they can't make money off of it. To the themes have ebbed and flowed and they don't really rock Bitcoin's corps, Like how do you make money on Like I want to disrupt the government, Like they can't go pitch their
LPs like you. By the way, bitcoin is gonna disrupt central banking and make all the banks ops lead. Also it's gonna remove power of government to do all these things. These the LPs, I think they're nuts. So they latched on the narratives like cheap PayPal replacing visa replacing master card, which were totally incongruent with why bitcoin is valuable. And then you also have like dats decentralized dat platforms, but
you could own the token, so you do. The vcs could eventually take their little cut, right, so the ebbs and flows of the space, the vcs latch onto whatever narratives are hot, um and so bitcoin's narrative. Bitcoin is old and boring and that's why I don't like it. And then you've got the operators. So when you're an operator, you constantly have to ship and build. So cracking is constantly building new apps, new sorry, new functionality to go
execute and compete against coin base. If we don't execute, then coin based well, and we're gonna be left in the dust. So you have to constantly iterate. That's tech, that's tech mindset. With money, you don't want to tinker with it all the time. Bitcoin needs to stay ossified. It needs to be slow moving and eventually become ossified because that ensures that trust can be built around this open this open network, this open framework versus a weather app.
You need to keep pushing a new update to it to make sure that people find it relevant and useful. Um. So for money, it's the opposite. You don't want to touch it a lot. And that's where they don't like bitcoin, but they like ethereum because ethereum is constantly tinkered with, and tech builders are tinkerers. They want to tinker with everything. They want to tinker with the monetary policy, they want to tinker with like block time, they want to tinker
with proof of workers at prove mistake. Constantly tinkering and tinkering and tinkering, and the idea that a product could be perfect or a a protocol could be perfect is unfathomable. They're like, no way, they're they're they're like, that's that's impossible. There's no way that the first try you got it right. They don't. You don't You don't see them going and tinkering with the t c P i P, you know, Internet protocol Um. They're tinkering with all the things that
are built on top of that. So maybe that's also an evolution thing. So over time they're gonna, Okay, well accept this protocol and we'll just tinker with what's on top of it. Totally exactly. That big one is like a t c P i P. You don't tinker with that. However, most younger developers weren't even around back when TCP, t c P I P was was talked about in debated versus other protocols. So I mean, actually, I think if
you're around then you're probably pretty old. Like if you were in your thirties and forties when they were discussing that might be so old that you're not on social right. So like there's a whole generation of kind of lost context there. But there's been some really cool folks on in the big points space. We've pulled out old debates and old I think there was one that was kind of like a joke, like a joke comic book about
how many protocols they were thinking of doing. They were thinking of doing protocols for every type of application back then, and instead they just came up with t c P I p UM. There's more nuance of this and a lot more to dig get on in a lot of
context I'm leaving out. But yeah, essentially you've got a bunch of like more like front end front end devs who are building they're building io s apps and web apps, and they're like, oh, I want to tinker with stuff, you know, They don't think about the implications of like the protocol level, which is like, this is a huge responsibility. This isn't your fucking weather. App Like, if you mess up something, you've got the entire world's financial system building
being built on this. This isn't it's not going to break and you can just fix it, you know, like if you break it, you might lose trust for forever. And almost no engineers in the world, a very few operating that premise maybe like aircraft aircraft, software engineers or you know, they have to think about crazy up time to ensure that everything, like a plane doesn't crash with people on it. Type of engineers the right wants to
think about protocol design. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's some good context. Thanks for sharing that. Let's say, let's pivot into back to this this supercycle. So um I think you know, and if you were around in seventeen, it was like,
obviously it's like retail fomo. All the individuals are coming in and that that's interesting in itself how it was the kind of the first time that retail had come to technology before the institutions and funds um But at the same time we were talking all the institutions are gonna come. They're gonna come. But now we've seen a completely different type of buyer, and I think that really
feeds into what you're calling this supercycle. Absolutely. Yeah. The market before was retail retails, individual like Mark and I who were not we're not professional. I don't know if market is or not, but you know we we don't want run hedge funds, um and and so the institutions had largely stayed out of bitcoin, and in seen where like, the institutions are coming, the herd is coming. It was a little too early. Now the herd is here. The herd is storming through the house. We can hear the herd,
we can smell the herd. The herd is here, and um, this represents a huge moment for bitcoin, not just because the institutions, and I'll get to the second part in your second it's the institutions bring about large amounts of capital which gets deployed in a bitcoin. They bring around large amounts of stability in terms of infrastructure, but the legitimacy factor I think a lot of bitcoiners are underestimating. Look, guys, I'm a libertarian. I'm a libertarian freedom fighter to like
corporations buying bitcoin is not a bad thing. They can't do anything if they buy bitcoin. They can't change the protocol, they can't change the governance. We still control bitcoin. But they're opting into our free world. This is a great moment. These institutions are opting into a world that we designed of permission less nature. Um, they're not going to change bitcoin, it's not possible given how bitcoins architected and we are
the resilient core, and that won't happen. But what the bitcoiners don't realize is that by institutions buying bitcoin, now more retail will buy bitcoin. Because retail it looks to institutions for legitimacy. You know, they're not libertarian like us. They don't question the nature of the reality. So when these trusted institutions like banks by bitcoin, then they buy. So now we're hitting that moment and that stride in the market. These institutions are buying bitcoin, and retail goes
wait a second. These institutions are the smart people that I trust. They started to buy bitcoin, and so that's why this could all feed into a supercycle where we've never had that before. We've had a very small retail segment, a retail segment that was very risk on. They were willing to reject institutional buy in, reject government buy in. And now we're starting to get that, which I think increases the legitimacy of bitcoin in the eyes of the
retail trader. Yeah, so the retail trader, I mean, they came in chasing pumps. So you know, at the end of seventeen, their their friends said, oh, I just turned five thousand and twenty, so they jumped in. But as soon as it started going down, they didn't understand why they bought. They just thought they were going to make it rich overnight. As soon as you started going down, they sold. So that not only did it push it up faster, but it also brought it back down faster.
That's why the volatility is always the most at the top. But then, as you're kind of explaining, now, with these institutional investors, you have like not Warm Buffet, but like Warm Buffet's own Coca Cola since like the sixties, like they buy things like Forever and so um. You just have a different makeup of the person there um, And so they're not quickly that they understand why they're buying.
They're not buying to make twenty grand and if it automn if it starts dropping, they don't automatically sell out. So I guess that kind of changes that volatility kind of curve for that sharp ratio totally. Yeah, definitely changes
the volatility structure. I think bitcoin is still gonna be volatile, quite volatile compared to other currencies and other assets for some time, but it certainly changes the the the holdler mix, the mix of individuals buying bitcoin, and I do think most institutions will skew towards a longer hoddle period than
a retail trader. Retail traders typically fomo in because their buddy told them about it, and then they're not very convicted, you know, the nor are they managing people's money to where it like a hedge fund manager or fund can hold onto it for a longer duration and they have an investment thesis um And they were like, sure, we'll wait five years, and the vcs holder their investment for
five to ten years UM. Now, headpunds are the same thing as vcs, but in a similar vein there can they have a can they have a conviction in this trade and they're gonna go with this investment thesis and they're gonna go do it. I was a retail trader wakes up and they had two cups of coffee and they bought bitcoin, and three days later they're drunk with every buddies at the bar and they panic sell. You know,
so they're quite a different dynamic. The other thing I would say is that you know, kind of like what you were saying about the vcs, where nobody wants to be the first guy, and then they all want to jump onto the trend. I think that we also see the same thing with the funds and institutions as well, where nobody wants to be the first guy. But once the first guy buys a little bitcoin and they outperform, then everybody else has to jump in, and then that
kind of becomes this self fulfilling prophecy. More people jump in, they outperform. More people jump in, they outperform um. And we see that now I know, we've got to kind of start wrapping this up, so maybe we can just kind of move along, um where this cycle takes us and kind of what you're thinking now, Michael Sailor said that like all models are broken at this point, which you know might be true. You're kind of saying the same thing right this time is different or whatever. Um
we've heard. You know, Cathy would from ARC said that she she thinks that SMP five companies should put ten percent of their treasury in it, and if they did that, it puts it to five hundred thousand dollars a coin. Seems pretty logical, Michael Saylor. You know she's just going to three hundred chillion, and and there's there's reason behind that. But in this cycle, kind of what are you what
are you thinking or seeing? Yeah, so, I mean if we talked, if we look at historical cycles and project the future, we would see between a hundred and three three hundred thousand dollars a bitcoin. This is also what a lot of analysts are predicting based on on chain data, etcetera. Typically, if everyone's guessing the same thing, it's probably not going
to be that. It's probably not what's going to happen. Um. So that's that's kind of how what's to define is like the classic outcome here, the supercycle outcome would be anything above like three d thousand up to like a million. Think, well, there's no limit to it, but I think anything past
a million would be insane. Even people think about crazy to even say a million or half a million, But I think anything around there the half a million to a million dollar range would be in like super cycle territory. Um I'd say, like entering that is a cycle that was predicted to be much smaller but was bigger than expected.
Or it could be a normal cycle and there's no bear market or a limited bear market, so it goes to two hundred dollars bitcoin and only drops to two and stays flat to the next bowl run something like that. You know, something that's very atypical, so basically doesn't break the pattern, does it break the mold. I think we've got all the elements that show that this time is different. We'll see what happens. I'm happy either way. Bitcoin doesn't change.
Either way, bitcoin doesn't fail or succeed. Bitcoin would even succeed in these lower bound scenarios of a hundred thousand and three thousand supercycle is just what I think could happen if the whole world wakes up to bitcoin at the same time, and certainly the price isn't going to be the same, it should be much higher. Than what we expect or have a less intense bear market. Yeah, and and as you said, all the catalyst is there.
We have you know, the pandemic and an unlimited money printing. Um, we have this younger generation. If you look at some cycles like the fourth turning, we have rapid change is going to be happening in this decade. Um. You know, all these things are kind of lining up so it could happen. So UM, I know we got to wrap it up, but you left us with a lot of thoughts, so hopefully everybody enjoys that. Anything you want to say closing it out, well, Mark, thanks for having me on.
Really appreciate it. Um. If you want to follow me, check out my Twitter account at Dan held That's where I post all my thoughts. Um. Yeah, but thanks for having me Mark. Yeah, we'll go ahead and linked to your Twitter and your news letter down below for everybody and without we'll wrap it up. Thanks so much, Dan sures