This SHADOW DATA Shows Real Estate Will Push Higher (Post Pandemic) | Jason Hartman - podcast episode cover

This SHADOW DATA Shows Real Estate Will Push Higher (Post Pandemic) | Jason Hartman

Nov 22, 202038 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

While most people think that Real Estate will crash post-pandemic, this shadow data shows there might be some real estate that could actually go up in prices. 

There are many things that people fail to take into consideration when looking at real estate prices throughout the country in the world that affect the way the prices will move. 

Everybody seems to be focused on the economy crashing the late payments piling up, the foreclosures that are for sure to happen, and the rent evictions that will. 

While all of these factors are very bad for the housing markets, they are no guarantee of what the future may hold and overwhelming Shadow evidence and data shows that the real estate market might not move the way you expect it. 

Real estate expert Jason Hartman sits down and explains the shadow data and give us an idea of what we should be looking for an expecting if you want to buy and own real estate post-pandemic


The Market Disruptors Podcast is hosted by Mark Moss and two times per week he sits down Builders, Investors, and Leaders in the Crypto and Blockchain space to find out What they are doing, How they are doing it, and What are the things we can learn from them to give us an edge in the markets and space overall. This platform is being used to ask the questions you should if you had access to these people. Visit https://marketdisruptors.io for more information.

Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Everyone, Welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptor Show. I am sitting down again with real estate expert Jason Hartman. Um. We've had some great discussions and I have a lot of questions for him. I'm really looking forward to. Uh So, Jason, Welcome to the show. Hey Mark, Thanks, it's good to be back. And uh go boy, we we've got to talk more often. There is so much going on in the world that I've been every time, you know, something is going on, I'm thinking, I want to ask Mark,

what would he think of this? You know, yeah, yeah, things are There's a quote I can't remember who says it, but it's something about there's decades, uh that seemed like they I'm butchering the quote now, but there's years go by with nothing, and then sometimes there's days that seemed like years or whatever. Anyway, there's so much stuff going on right now. You know. Another way to say that is in a time of like pandemic COVID and and civil unrest and race riots, you know, it's like a

week is like a year. I mean, it's changing so quickly and there's so much to talk about that it's like dog years, right, that's a that's a that's a better way to put it. So, Um, you're the real estate expert, you're an investing expert. You get the whole big picture, which is why I like talking to you. Right, you can't just look at one segment. You have to

understand everything. Um, And so you you get that. And there's some questions that I have, and I know my audience has, because I've recently done a series of videos and I've talked about different segments of the market. Um, I've made the case that there's going to be this great migration happening for different reasons. I've made the case that maybe prices are still cheap, but everybody's fixated on

one thing, and that is the pandemic. And because fifty million people are out of jobs and maybe a lot of these jobs might not come back, who knows how long it's going to take. Whatever. Because of that, the entire real estate market must crash. People are stuck in that trap. And I don't see it that way. I believe there's nuance in there. But people have this view where because the pandemic, real estate has to crash. What would you say about that? Well, Uh, it's a multilayered discussion.

So first of all, UM, you know when you say people say that, I know some people say that because I get the comments on my YouTube videos you get on yours. UM, but they're completely wrong. I'm just here to tell you, okay. I mean business is freaking booming for us. UM. We do not have nearly enough inventory of properties. My company helps investors by properties nationwide, and I mean inventory is super scarce. Things are going like that. Now,

that's what we do. But like you were saying, UM, in in some segments of the market and in some geographical areas, it is a completely different picture. If we were offering uh properties in any high density city or you know, urban area. UM, if we were offering expensive properties,

I would not be thinking or saying that now. Interestingly, though, some of the expensive properties in low density areas are actually booming because there's still a lot of people in the world with a lot of money, and that money is moving. This is a a migration of people and money that is happening right now. So whenever a crisis hits, and we are definitely in a crisis, I will be the first to agree. Please don't give me any silly comments on this video that oh gosh, this guy's god

rose colored glasses. You know. Yeah, no, everything is not okay. It's not okay at all. I mean, we are in a time of crisis, and um, but in a time of crisis, money moves around. People move move around, the the you know, the checkers on the checkerboard move around, and uh, and that's what's happening now and so uh

that that reallocation is happening. And you know, I'll share some math when when I share my screen and show you some of this migration that's going on, and show you some of the calculations for the possible migration to come. It's just begun. This is I mean, a damn is breaking, a tsunami is is forming, and uh, if you're an investor, you want to ride this wave and you don't want to be on the wrong side of it to where it breaks on your head because that is definitely happening

in some areas. Yeah. Now, um, you last time we talked, you had brought up a statement which I've echoed, and I want to just kind of stay stay one more time for everybody that's listening and say that things you

are painting it with rose colored glasses. Is that there is no such thing as the real estate market, thousands of sub markets broken up by area, by price, range, by type, by all different types of things, and finance markets can be complicated, and there's reasons why people want them to be complicated, but really everything breaks down to the most simple, which is supply and demand. And everything

is always driven by supply and demand. And so because there's this massive pandemic and there are fifty million people out of work, and there are a lot of jobs that won't come back, there's a lot of things happening. People are gonna be working from home, People want to lose certain areas, and and as you just made the case, people start moving. And it's the moving that creates supply and demand. And so if you can chase those trends, you can find the pockets. I mean, I guess is

that is that what you're seeing? Yeah? And I mean better than chasing them, even although you can still make a lot of money chasing them. But is to do what the great Wayne Gretzky said, And you probably know what I'm gonna say, right, I skate to where the puck is going, right, you know, like that's that's the thing you want to do is skate to where the puck is going. And uh so it's definitely going to

suburban markets, and it's leaving urban markets. And eight of the population of the United States lives in what the census considers an urban market. Okay, now, let's kind of lay a little groundwork if we can, because you're alluded to it just a second ago. Mark. Um. You know, I've always talked for the last sixteen seventeen years, as I've been educating investors and helping them invest nationwide, I've always talked about three types of markets. Linear markets, cyclical markets,

and hybrid markets. Linear markets are the markets we like and invest in, their boring markets. Uh their places like um, you know, Memphis, Tennessee, Little Rock, Arkans Saw, Um, some of the Texas cities, their places like Indianapolis. Um, there's a bunch of them, and you know they're all on my website at Jason Hartman dot com, so you can see what linear markets are. Most of the world is a linear market. It's most of the world is a

boring real estate market where prices just chug along. They don't go up much, but they don't go down much either in bad times, and these properties have really good cash flow. And I know you you agree with me on this type of investing. The problem is the news media doesn't pay attention to these markets. But the news media pays attention to is the cyclical markets, the markets that, if you're looking at a graph, look like a roller coaster.

They have glorious highs and ugly lows. Those are places like the West coast of the United States, South Florida, just a little bit south of where I live. Um, you know, Miami area, Fort Lauderdale, UM, the expense of Northeastern markets, New York, Washington, d C, Boston, some of the areas of Connecticut, et cetera. Around the world, they are places like Dubai, Paris, London, Hong Kong, a k In these markets, I wouldn't touch them with a ten

foot poll Okay. Also, interestingly, the cyclical markets tend to be urban markets that are high density. That are markets that people are fleeing. They have civil unrest, they have a high chance of catching a virus, a place where you can't socially distance, and they're expensive, and most of them are business unfriendly. There they have high taxes, they have intrusive governments. Um. And you know, I think people have just woken up that these they just don't have

that much to offer. You know, I have several friends, as I'm sure you do, Mark that live in places like New York City, and one of them, for example, just Um, left New York City, uh, a six hundred square foot apartment that was thirty eight hundred dollars a month, and moved to South Carolina, Okay, And you know it's like you can you can trade in your four thousand dollar a month, six d square foot apartment for a three bedroom, two bath, two car garage fifty a hundred

square foot home for one third of the costs. Yeah, in some of these markets that we're in, it's just a much better deal. And now that everybody's telecommuting and you know, working on Zoom and stuff, it doesn't matter where you live. It just it doesn't matter that much. So that's the trend we're seeing. So then I think maybe it could be easy for some people to believe there's this migration happening. Um. Baby boomers want to leave

expensive areas and move to sunbelt states. People want to get out of high density areas go to low tax areas. So maybe and and now Twitter and Facebook say you don't have to work at the office anymore. You can live wherever you want for another year than just that was just out today, right, and uh so, so maybe people, maybe people can believe that that great migration is happening. Um, but will the amount of people going out of work be too much to offset that? Yeah, that's a great question.

And even let me just broaden your your thesis a little bit there, because that's a great question and it's one that definitely needs to be answered. Look, there is no doubt the economy is in crisis. The question is which trend is bigger? Is the trend of the economy being in crisis or the trend of the mass migration of people and money both of those things, people and money, Um, which trend is bigger? Well, I don't know the answer, and I've tried to figure it out, and it's very

hard to figure out. But I don't know if we need to know the answer to that question. All we need to do is play in our little piece of that and we know for sure that there's a migration out of high density areas to low density areas. So people would rather live in Indianapolis, Memphis, Little Rock, Atlanta, Okalla, Florida. That's Florida by the way, Ocala, Jacksonville, any of these markets that we sell properties in, then they would in you know, New York City, downtown Chicago, and um, you

know that is happening. So I don't know about the broader economy. I mean, we are certainly in trouble, but I think what what I would say is that you're you're right, Uh, you can't look at the broad economy. So all of that selling, that potential selling, is going to cause an impact. But again back to supply and demand. When people leave one area and mass leave a bunch of areas to go to a few a few areas,

the supply and demand is going to offset that. And um, yeah, you have a lot of people losing their jobs, but there's always people gonna need the place to live, and so there's always gonna be segments of the market. Maybe the MC mansions are soft, but maybe the entry level homes are always gonna have high demand because someone's always going to be an entry level home. So you have to look at the areas, you have to look at the property types. You have to really dig into the segments, right, yes,

you do. You have to. You have to peel back the onion people that make these silly generalizations about, oh, it's a terrible time to buy real estate. Well, you know what they said that night too. Would you like to own have owned some property that you purchased in ninety or night or two thousand and eight. You'll be doing great right now. Okay. They people always say that

stuff because they make silly, sweeping generalizations. Um Mark, Right before we started today, you said something that was very very important. You talked about how people don't uh, they don't. You basically were saying that people don't buy a house based on the price, they buy it based on the payment and because the interest rates are so incredibly insanely low, where they're literally paying us to borrow the money after

inflation and taxes. You're getting paid to borrow even if you never write your house out, okay, even if it's vacant, you're getting paid to borrow after inflation and taxes. Okay. So with that said, we're in an era of truly negative interest rates. You get that dead asset with the house, and if you look at the average mortgage payments, or you compare an apples to Apple's property in terms of

what it was ten years ago, fifteen years ago. And now, yes, the price is higher, I get it, but the payment is lower, okay. So so real estate for most people has actually gotten cheaper okay, based on a payment. But interestingly, the rent has continued to go up, right even though the payment got lower for the landlord. So um, I want to dig into that a little bit. But um, just for the listeners, um that are that are paying attention. I wanna, I really want to talk about this great migration.

And as you said, the great Wayne Gretzky says, skate to where the puck is going to be. You told me, don't chase the money, get in front of it, so you can make a lot of money chasing it too, right, smart money gets in front of it. And so I want you to tell us, uh and maybe show us. You said you have some charts of where what's happening with this great migration? And but before we jump into those lines, let's not. Let's not jumping up yet. So I want to get into I'm just telling the listeners

I want to. I want to I want to. I want you to show us some slides and show us this great migration so we can understand where the puck is going to be. But before we do that, UM, I just wanted to dig into what you said real quick. And you said that interest rates are so low that we're basically getting paid to borrow. Now, interest rates are what two and a half percent or whatever? Um, And I understand what you mean, but most people probably don't

follow that. So if I'm paying two and a half or three percent, what do you mean I'm actually getting paid to borrow. Let's say you're paying even more. Let's take the example, a real world example of one of our clients who just purchased the property and closed on it. And I had him, I interviewed him on my podcast and I talked about it. He's got a three and a half percent, three decade long mortgage, so literally he will not make the last payment on that mortgage he

and his wife until two thousand and fifty. Okay, Like, think about that two thousand and fifty, three decades from now. In three decades, there will be about ninety million more people in the United States. And who thinks with all this money printing and all this quantitative using that we're going to have some inflation somewhere in there. Maybe it won't be right away. I get it, you know, I don't know when it will be, but it's coming eventually.

It has to come. Okay, Like Milton Friedman said, and you know, people disagree with us, but he said it's a good quote. He said, inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon. And what that means is that when the printing press runs, when there's more supply of money chasing a limited supply of goods and services, prices have

to go up. You talk about supply and demand a lot mark and you know you're you're a bitcoin investor, and you know that's one of the reasons I think you like it, right because it can't be inflated like dollar can. Right. So um to add to that, um, just real quick, Um, the Fed right there printing money, endless money, trillions and trillions of dollars and they said, uh, just recently, I think it was a week or two ago, they said, quote, they are going to let the inflation

run hot. So what happens is typically as they're starting to get close to their two percent target, they start to taper down to slow it down. They said they're gonna run it hot, let it just run pat, which means they're gonna overshoot that too. And and as you said, what Milton Freema said, it's a phenomenon that I don't believe can be controlled. So if they're gonna let it run hot past two percent, it's gonna overshoot the ten percent or something. Who knows, right? So, Um, anyway, but

go ahead and finish back with your example. So he pays pain three and a half percent, but because inflation will end up running as high as two and a half or three percent, the goals two percent. Um. Somehow that means that he's getting paid to borrow. Yeah. So, UM, just one comment before that on on your inflation comment. You know, um on shadow stats dot com, which I'm we haven't talked about it, but I'm sure that's a

website you've referenced before. Um. John Williams, the founder, was on my show before, and he has a real inflation calculator on shadow stats, and people should go check that out and you will just see how inflation is much higher than we're being told five or six percent at least. Yeah. Yeah, but but that said, you know, the the FED and the government clearly state that their goal is to have two percent inflation. Okay, so let's just take them at

their order and say it's two percent for this example. Okay. Mortgage interest is tax deductible. Okay. So if you are paying three percent or three sorry, three and a half percent on the mortgage, depending on your tax bracket, you know, state and federal tax combined, you're gonna have about one point five percent of that be deductible. Okay. I'm assuming there's no income against it. The house is vacant, you

never rent it to anybody, which is terrible. Of course you're gonna rent it, okay, but let's say you don't, okay. So uh, and if you have two percent inflation in one point five percent tax deduction, okay, then you're getting the money for free. If you're paying three and a half percent, period, it's free money even if you never ever rent the house out. Now, if you rent the house out, you have got uh. The reason we love real estate investing is because we have what we call

self liquidating debt. Okay, lookay, I love debt when I don't have to pay it when I can outsource the repayment obligation to someone called a tenant dead is awesome. Otherwise, I don't like debt at all. I mean, the only supposed debt I have is my car lease, and I do think the car lease is actually a decent deal. So I usually lease my car. Is not always sometimes I just buy them, but uh, sometimes I lease them. So my current car is on a lease and the

rate is super cheap. Okay, so I think that's a good deal to lease the car. Um But the only debt I have is mortgage debt. That's it. Other debts are too expensive and they're not self liquidating. They require me to pay it. Now, if you think back to all these famous corporate raiders Ivan bow Ski, Okay t Boon Pickens who you know passed away recently, um Carl Icon, you know all these names we've all heard about, right.

What they are sometimes famous for is what's called an l BO leveraged buyout, and that leveraged buyout basically is the technique where they will acquire a company and then the way they pay for the they levered up with debt. They put a lot of debt on the company, but the way they pay the debt back is through the company's own revenue that it generates. So it's a self liquidating debt. It's like it's like, you know, buying a cow and then paying for the cow with the milk

the cow produces. Right, you don't pay for it yourself. It's only only half the milk it produces. Yeah, that's even better. That means that's called positive cash flow. Um. Yeah, that's that's a great example. So yeah, I mean there's there's all these things that are happening. Um, there's one more thing that I want to throw out there before we jump into telling you telling us where people are moving, where the puck is going to be. But the other thing that I think people need to keep in mind

is that the future is uncertain. We have no idea what's going to happen. Um, I think we we have probabilities. We deal with probabilities, right, we don't. We don't. We don't make predictions. We deal with probabilities. The probability of inflation is extremely high. I mean, they're printing chillions of dollars. They're probably gonna print another tenant chillion before it's over.

So the probability of inflation is really high. But there's another probability that people are are completely dismissing and they're automatically assuming that foreclosures are going to rock the entire economy. But there's no reason to really believe that because in two thousand and eight the government held off foreclosures for four years. Yeah, and we're already seen already. We've seen rent forgiveness, mortgage forgiveness, rent uh eviction forbearance, rent payment forbearance.

So we've already seen it just in the beginning. To imagine how much more the government could do to just forgive payments or whole full foreclosures or whatever. They've already done it before, Why wouldn't they do it again? Absolutely, you're absolutely right. Look at the government. Um, no government and no central bank wants a bad economy. That's a bad deal for them. One thing we know for sure that they want is inflation, because inflation makes it cheaper

for them to pay their debts off. And the US is in a very enviable position having the world's reserve currency. People like Peter Shifts saying, you know, the US is going to lose its reserve currency status. You know, he'll probably be right long after he's gone. Okay, I mean, yes, someday that may happen, sure, But the reality is, at the end of the day, the country that's going to control the reserve currency to the world is the country

with the most aircraft carriers and that's the United States. Okay, Um, I mean the ability to wage war and you know, keep us interests are that's gonna win the day. It always as it always boils down to the military at the end of the day. Well, that's a whole separate conversation that we could definitely discuss because I don't know if we see that eye to eye, but um, that's okay. But either way, we agree that the government doesn't want

these foreclosures. They've they've held them off before. They can definitely hold them off again. And so a lot of people don't see that. I think they're You're right, they're gonna have They're gonna have every which bailout, every program, every loan modification. You know, they'll they'll do another TARP program, the Troubled Asset Relief program type thing, and they'll they'll push the banks to do loan modifications. They'll push the banks to do short sales and workouts and whatever they

need to do. Look there, there will be certainly an increase in foreclosures, but will it be in these little inexpensive bread and butter rental properties. I doubt it, I think, and I think, i'm i'm. I did a video about this, and I'm continuing to grow in my chances of probability this happen. And a lot of big name people Porter Stansbury and others are also saying the same thing. And there's a real chance we see a debt jubilee. Yeah, you can see massive debt forgiveness happening. That's not off

the table by any means. So anyway, just keep that in mind. But let's let's talk about um that that aside, right, supply and demand. People are bailing out of a lot of areas creating too much supply, and they're going to other areas that are creating too much demand. You think you have some insider or I shouldn't say you think you do? You have some insight, you had some charts while you fill us in on that. Yeah, yeah, I'll

share my screen with you. But one comment about that, this Standsbury comment, you know, in his his most recent book, it's about the debt jubilee. And remember something that the whole thing, it's always unequal. Everything is unequal. This pandemic is making a very uneven thing. Some people are getting rich, um, and some people are getting poorer. And it's really sad. It's always unequal. But if there's a debt jubilee, guess who benefits the most the people who have the most debt.

So and and how do you get the highest quality, best debt in the highest quantity for most people, Not not a corporate rader like Ivan Bowski or whatever. Right, Um, you just buy properties because real estate is the most debt friendly asset class in the United States. It's the most tax favorite asset class in the United States, and I think it's the most historically proven asset class in

the entire world. Um so um, I'll just share a couple of the migration trends I see, like Mark asked me to and um, what's uh screen, Yeah, that's a great point about the about the debt you know. Um. The one thing that I think everybody can easily see and agree to is that there's a real probability of having like a student loan debt forgiven, and uh, you know, I just think how unfair is that because how many people didn't take on debt the right way. Well, it's

not fair to them. Now your debt's gonna be forgiven. And then okay, well I didn't go to college and now I've had to work a low paying job. Should you really should you pay me the difference of what I would have made if I would have gone, Like, it's unfair, but but it is what it is. And those who have the college debt are probably gonna get it forgiven, and so the same is true those who have mortgage debt. Maybe we'll get it forgiven. I know.

That's why it's uneven. So if you want to if you want to get the benefit of the coming debt you believe, you believe there's gonna be one, then you should stock up on exceptionally low cost, high quality, investment grade debt that's attached to good income properties. That's the way to do that. So, yeah, it's totally unfair. You know, if there's a student loan forgiveness and you don't have a student loan, what are you going to get out of it? Nothing? Right, nothing, So anyway you can see

my screen, right, okay. Good. So here we've got a tidal wave of the tsunami and that's what's happening. So I think there are six megatrends mark that are really adding to this, uh, that are going to be very Oh my gosh, it's so frustrating. I'm sorry. Here just a moment, no problem, we gonna edit this out. Just you know what what happened is as soon as I shared the screen, it clicked off and I couldn't see you anymore. So you don't worry what ed it it up? Yeah, okay,

I'm okay. I may not be able to see you, Okay, So I'll just talk through this and and I gotta I gotta wrap it up in ten minutes for sure. And that's why I've been trying to kind of rush through it. No no problem at all, Okay, okay, so here we go. Oh wait, okay, so you can see my screen now, okay. So here are the six megatrends. Okay. And one of them is roommates. Okay. And this is one that really nobody's talking about, but about thirty plus

percent of the United States housing market is roommates. It's it's people cohabitating in non romantic relationships. Okay, and most of these roommates are in urban areas that have expensive real estate. These also happened to be as I talked about earlier, these are mostly cyclical markets. Okay, So think about this conversation, Mark, I mean, we can all you know, maybe we've all had a roommate at sometime. And you know,

you've got a couple of young professionals living together. They've got a two bedroom house and now they're working at home. They used to never see each other except to come home to sleep and say hi or by in the morning or evening. Right and they they go to work all day. They've come home, they'd run out and they'd socialize. If they're maybe single, Uh, they do that, or they go to the gym and um and and they hardly

ever saw each other. But now they're both at home and they're both working at home, and one since the other, hey, you know, now that I'm working at home, I really need that bedroom as a home office. And then the other one says, you know, I was thinking the same thing, so they split up. Okay, that's thirty percent of the housing market that has literally doubled the demand. It's a one hundred increase in housing demand, it's from two, or it's from one to two. Okay. The same is true

of the possibility. Okay. And this is a little sad of a divorce boom. Okay. I'm not gonna be able to go through all this in the interest of time. But some have talked about the COVID baby boom. If that's happening, then it you know, because people are together all with cabin fever, right, so they're gonna do what comes naturally. So if the COVID baby boom is happening, then that increases demand for housing. If the if the COVID COVID divorce boom is happening, then that increases demand

for housing it too. And by the way, this is not a theory because it actually is happening in Wuhan, China. Well, and we know the number one reason for divorces is finances. So people lost their job, they get stressed out. And if I lead a divorce, we know that. And if they're on top of each other all day long they can't get an escape, that might even make it worse. So so there's lots of articles about the baby boom,

the divorce boom due to these lockdowns. Okay. Um, we should realize that percent of the United States lives in what is considered to be an urban area. Okay, and that is a population of only two three people per square mile, whereas in New York City, just as a comparison, it's like twenty eight thousand people per square mile. Wow. Okay, So just think about the density. The two biggest zones are elevators and mass Transit impossible to socially distance in

those places. So I see this mass migration from high density to low density suburban living. Okay. And you know, there's a lot of other data here. I'm just gonna pass this, but these are the types of markets. These are linear markets. This is from our website, uh, and these are markets that we're in. Okay. Um. So look at the increase in the number of households nineteen sixty to two thousand nineteen, and it just shows you how big this market is. Let's look at the urban dwellers. Okay.

This is two d and sixty eight million people. Okay. And by the way, this is back of the Napkin math. So that's why the screen is literally a napkin. It's this is by no means meant to be completely scientific. It's rough math, okay, so please don't write the comments down below. Oh this math is not accurate. It's it's a concept. Okay. Uh So anyway, Um, these people cannot socially distance. Let's say only aten percent of them decide

that they want to move to a safer environment. And by the way, I put all this here, before there was any civil unrest, this was just lockdown oriented, socially distancing oriented. Now these same places have riots in the streets, many of them, okay, most of them actually. So, Um, if you have this fifteen percent, okay, these forty million people, okay, Um, that's twenty million suburban units needed. Okay. And if you spread that out, okay into uh what did I do

as another calculation? Hang on, there's another napkin coming, okay. Um, So let me just tell you about apartments for a moment. Okay, Um. There are three classifications of apartments. Okay. There's low rise or garden style apartments, and those are up to four stories. There's mid rise, which is five to twelve stories, and then there's high rise, which is twelve stories and above Okay. So anytime you're really over three four stories, people are using an elevator, okay, and um for mid rise and

high rise, this is just rental units. It doesn't include condos. Okay. There If you combine those two, they're about two point three million of those in the United States. Okay. So if we only count fifteen percent of those as potential movers only, and I say, the number is going to be a lot higher than that, but let's just be conservative.

That's three forty thousand homes needed. If you divide that into fifty suburban markets, that's basically seven thousand additional homes needed in each of those suburban markets where long before anyone ever heard the words services sickness, as our friend likes to say, okay, um, there was a housing shortage in all these markets. All okay, So that's seven thousand is a big number. And remember this is only renters. It doesn't include condoms. Okay, this is only rental units. Um.

Combine that with a few other trends. And by the way, that's from the Yardy matrix. Look at what happened as the pandemic broke. This is the Google search term work from home. Look at how it's skyrocketed right as as the people started socially distancing. Okay, carl Icon, big corporate radar. I talked about shorting commercial real estate. Um, and there's the remote workers. Demand for office space has totally fallen off a cliff. Uh, here's the roommate discussion again. There's

then the family discussion. Okay, think of your typical family for two adults to kids. Now, both adults are working at home and the kids are home from school because school has been canceled, so the kids have got to study from home. If they lived in a in a in a two or three bedroom house, four, think of it. They need several extra bedrooms now, assuming they don't even have a room for a home gym or anything else. Right, So there's a lot of additional demand for typical suburban housing.

The gyms have clothes, and you know it's not just remote work, but I say it's remote working out. This is a serious deal. I mean, you know, millions and millions of people go to gyms as a normal course of their life and they basically can't do it anymore. So a lot of trends there. Um. And the last one I'll say is multigenerational living. Okay, there in the US there are twenty eight million people over seventy years old. This is the graying of America trend that has been

talked about for decades. And um, those people, it's not safe to have them in a nursing home anymore or an assisted living facility, and so uh they they're going to be living at home more and more often in the same housing unit or near to their children. This is the sandwich generation where you know, the person who's in the middle age of their life has children of their own plus But does that does that compress the

housing instead of expanding it. So, for example, that older person who would typically move out of that house and go to assisted living home, now they're staying in their home. And now maybe the families moving in with them, So maybe they're compressing their homes instead of expanding. They might be that that's certainly possible, but most of the time, neither party has a house that's big enough for everybody.

And look at this is not a common thing in the United States, but it's totally common around the world. Go to Europe and Asia, South America, people live with their parents. This is not unusual at all. Okay, it's just the US that's, you know, and so prosperous for so long that people haven't had to do multigenerational living here. But you know this, I think this trend adds to demand for larger suburban homes Okay, and it moves people out of the cities even more so. Okay, So that

pretty much wraps up most of the trends. I know there's a lot more to it. I haven't had time to discuss, but I just thought i'd touch on it. Yeah, and we could keep digging in and digging in, but I know your time is short and I appreciate everything that you've been able to give to us so far. Um, so you know we can we can keep digging in. We'll have to have another conversation about it. Of course. If anybody likes these topics and wants to know more,

they should go follow Jason. I think your YouTube channel is Jason Hartman. What's the best way for people to follow you? Yeah, you can my YouTube channel. It's nothing compared to yours. But I'm trying to catch up to you. I'm chasing your success and uh and so I'm on YouTube. Just look up Jason Hartman and you'll find it and uh and then I've got a podcast called The Creating Wealth Show that is very popular. That's one of the oldest real stayed investing podcast I've been running down for

about fifteen years now. And my website Jason Hartman dot com. Yeah cool. Well, so much good information. I hope that everybody realizes that this is a much bigger thing than what you maybe kind of just focus on, and that that's really the point um and you need to learn to look at things from a bunch of different angles. So hopefully that makes sense. And that's it. That's what we got for you guys today. So to your success. Hey, thanks so much. Happy investing everybody, and be safe and

stay well. Thanks Mark

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android