The Mark Moss Show Oct 27, 2021

means they want to have more upside than downside. And so in order to get that asymmetric return, you have to have a symmetric information. You have to know information that the majority of people don't have. That's the only way. If everybody knows it, there's no there's no alpha, there, there's no edge. You don't have an edge, all right. You have to have an edge. You have to know something that most people don't know. And so that's why you need to tune into me each end every week.

So pull out your phone, put a calendar reminder this time this channel. Do not miss this. It will be the most profitable hour of week. Also, if you have your phone in your hand, go ahead and pull out. Open up your Twitter or Instagram and find me. It's one Mark Moss on both the platform. Send me a message, tell me you heard me on the radio, and ask me a question. I'll make sure to answer it for you next week when we go live. Now we're talking

about um bitcoins price. It broke. It's broke its previous all time high that was set back in April of this year, and there's really no resistance above head at this point. I mean, we're in this kind of no man's land, there's no resistance. We're in this true price discovery place at this point. And a lot of that was driven by, you know, some regulations that happened in China, but also in the United States. UM, in the United States, you know, we've continued to reach this level of entrenchment

that I think is just impossible. There's just no way the government would ever um kill it at this point. And they can't kill it, but they could, you know, try to make it illegal. I don't think that would ever happen. And I think what over the last couple weeks, we heard the head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, and we heard the federal chair of Jrome pow both say that they will not make it illegal. They told us

that verbatim um. And then we saw this week and this is the real big news were talking about this week is that this bitcoin e t F went into effect, and that was really big news, got got everybody excited. Now, I want to explain something about this e t F because there's there's there's probably a lot of miscommunication, a lot of misunderstanding going on with this et F, and I think it's very important for you to understand because

it can be dangerous, all right, it can be dangerous. Now, the first thing I want you to understand is that there's two different types of ets I mean, there's there's more than that, but I want to break them down into kind of two main categories. And so you have a Future's e t F and you have a spot e t F. All right, let me explain to you what those two are. So a future's et F is basically a way to just bet, to gamble. You're basically betting on what the price of bitcoin will be in

the future. I bet I gamble, you know, I bet you that it's going to be higher in the future, or I bet you it's going to be lower in the future. All right. That's the first way. The second way is a spot et f and that means you're actually buying the bitcoin, right, you actually own it, You have a at least you have a claim to it, all right, So it's a big difference. Now, the futures came out for a couple of reasons, and of course, like like everything, they kind of get distorted and changed

over time. But in the beginning, you know, they were really used for commodities, which bitcoin is classified as a commodity, so that's why they have it um. But commodities typically would be like um, food, right, so grain, wheat, things like that. And if I was a farmer and I

was growing wheat or whatever crop that may be. And let's say that I was afraid that I was going to have a bad year or that it was gonna be a good Year's we too much wheat and it's going to push the price down, or something's going to happen to the price. Right, So what I could do is I could sell a futures contract. I could get someone to agree to buy my wheat or corn or whatever it is at a fixed price in the future, and that way it takes some of the risk off.

I'm guaranteed a price, and now they are the ones that have the risk. Now I could end up selling it short to not make as much money, but it's okay because I'm guaranteed to get that price. And that's kind of what's happening with the Bitcoin et F. It's a futures based contract. So I don't own the bitcoin, I don't have a claim to actually get any bitcoin. I'm just betting on where I think the price is

going to be now. Um part. Another reason why the futures also work good for commodities is because typically commodities, when I'm talking about corn, you know, wheat grain, or I'm talking about oil, you know, commodities like that, they're they're very difficult, if not completely impossible, to take delivery of, right. I mean, imagine if a bunch of contracts, a bunch of tons of grain, you know, corn showed up at your house or oil, like, what are you gonna do

with that? And so it was a way for a way for an investor to buy into that commodity, to put some money into that commodity, but without having to take delivery of it. Right. So that would be more of the spot side of things. So that's kind of what they were intended for. Of course, today they're just turned into this giant gambling casino that's going on over in Wall Street, and they're you know, betting on everything.

I mean, today there's betting markets for everything. I think it probably probably a lot of people were surprised to see that there was like betting markets on the election, you know, for last year, and anything that can be bet on they're betting on. And they're betting on the

price of bitcoin. Now. Um, the first thing I would say that I don't like about the futures um et F is that price is all driven by supply and demand, all right, So if there's more demand, more people want to buy, then there is supply than people that want to sell, and the price and actually goes up. And so as more and more people wanted to get into bitcoin, as corporations, as institutions, as hedge funds, as they es central banks, as they want to get access to bitcoin,

they had to buy it. And when they bought it, it took supply off the market, which then push the price up higher. Right, And so the one one of the many revolutionary things about bitcoin is that it has a fixed supply cap right never be more than twenty one million gold. We talked about earlier if you caught the previous show, we talked about how gold has a stock to flow model. You have the stock the existing supply with the flow of the new and coming supply,

and so there's an inflation rate. How much gold goes up. Now, if the price of gold went you know, right now it's on eight hundred bucks anounce, let's say it went to ten thousand announces, you'd have way more people go to mind gold, and you have way more gold coming into the into the world. With bitcoin, they can't increase that. You could you get the price of bitcoin to go up by ten x and you'd have ten x the amount of people going to mind bitcoin, but it wouldn't

increase the supply of bitcoin at all. And so um, there's a supply demand thing and so um, since they can't create more than twenty one million, what they can do is with this future's e t F. Remember they're not actually buying bitcoin, they're buying they're just betting on it. So now money that typically if that hedge fund, that institution, that government wanted access to the price of bitcoin, they

would have no choice book to buy it. Today, they instead of putting their million dollars of buying bitcoin, they just take that same million dollars and they bet on bitcoin instead. And so the million dollars is still getting access to the price of bitcoin, but it's not changing the demand and supply metrics. So I think that's a bad thing. Now we've seen this become very very bad, like in the gold industry for example. So in the

gold industry, um, this is really big. And so you know, gold is a little bit hard to take advantage of two or I should say, take custody of right, So like if you have a lot of gold, I mean, what are you gonna do with it? Like you probably can't store it in your house, It's very expensive to ship and things like that, and so, um, a lot of people I buy the gold ETFs that don't actually own the gold. And studies have shown there's not a

lot of transparency here. But some estimates show that there's approximately five hundred paper ounces of gold for everyone real ounce of gold. So what that means is there's at five people four nine of them think they own gold, but they don't really. Now, imagine if all of those four people that thought they own gold actually did if they took that money and actually bought physical gold based off supplying Man, what do you think would happen to

the price of gold. It would shoot way higher, right, I mean five times higher. Um. But they've created this fake paper market, and I'm afraid that could happen to bitcoin, where you create this fake paper market which then creates an unlimited supply, and then it kind of suppresses the price down in a way because um, it's not you know, activating that supply and demand. So that's one thing that I don't like the futures without much rather see a spot et F. Of course, the the SEC won't approve

a spot E t F right now. They say it's too dangerous. Um. In my opinion, what's dangerous is this fake futures betting. In my opinion, that's way more dangerous. If I bought bitcoin spot and it went down in value, at least I still own the bitcoin. If I just make a bet against it and I lose the bet, I lose everything. I own nothing, And so that seems

to me more dangerous. But I want to get in a little bit more into how this spot or I'm right, how this future is actually works, because if you're considering buying it, there's actually some things that you need to know. Um, it is easy to get access to it, but there's some real dangers and it actually might be way more expensive and way more dangerous than you think. And so if you're thinking about buying this futures, you know it's

easy to get from your brokerage account whatever it may be. UM, then you need to know this information. There's something known as the bleed. You need to know about the bleed. You need to know what the cash and carry is. You need to know something a negative role yield is called. You listen to the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about bitcoin futures. So the information that you need need you need to know about bitcoin so you can survive and thrive as this revolution plays out. I'll be right back.

Hey everyone, welcome back. You are listening to the markma Show where I talk about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution each and every week, bringing you the information you need. I mean, look, I say it over and over every each and every week. This is the biggest opportunity you'll ever have in your lifetime, and you need to have this information. Unfortunately, most people have wrong information. Wherever they're getting information from. I can pretty much tell

you it's wrong. And if you have the wrong information, you're either not going to take advantage of this opportunity or you won't take advantage of it properly. And so you need to have that. So join me each and every week polot your phone intead of reminder. Also, by the way, tweet at me or hit me on Instagram. One Mark Moss, just the number one. Mark Moss asked

me a question. I'll answer it next week. Now I'm talking about these futures, these bitcoin futures e t s that came out this week and the big, big, big news, of course, the price of bitcoin shot higher, new all time highs, and I was explaining, now there's two different types of bitcoin e T f s, and there's there's more, but I'm just breaking them in two buckets. And so basically you have the futures, which is basically you're not buying bitcoin, you're just betting on the future price, hence

the name of futures. And then there's another one called spot, which is means you're actually buying it. You're actually buying the bitcoin. And uh, in an e t F, you would actually take delivery of it, but you would have a claim to it. And so what we got is the futures et F. We did not get the spot et F. And and there's some things with this, with this futures et F that you need to be aware of. Um overall, I would just say I don't recommend it

for the average person. I don't think you should buy it. I would I would highly recommend that you stay away from it. For the average person. You should just buy bitcoin and you should store it yourself. It's so easy. One of the very, very, very many revolutionary things about bitcoin is it allows you to take custody of your own assets. Um Man, I can go down through so many tangents. I hate to go through the tangents, but it's hard for me not to explain this stuff to you.

But think about this just real quick. Probably the oldest problem that man that humans have had, the oldest problem in the entire world of all the humanity, the biggest problem that man has had humans have had is how do you store your wealth? How do you store your property without it being taken. So, um, the early man, I'm afraid you're gonna come steal my chickens. So me and the neighbor get together and band together, and someone's gonna come take our chickens and our goats. So then

we make a village to protect our property. And then we make a kingdom, and then we make a country. As a matter of fact, the role of the United States government is only to protect private property. That's it. But what's the revolution about bitcoin is that you know, let's say that I'm I'm holding my wealth, my value in gold, and I have a lot of gold. Well, that's gonna take up a lot of room. It's gonna be very heavy. I'm gonna have to spend a lot of money to build a safe and some walls, and

I'm gonna have to hire some guards. So it's very expensive. And then I can't take it anywhere. It's very hard to move it. Um. And so those are types of problems, right. But if I can hold my wealth in bitcoin that can be cryptographically secured and it costs me zero dollars or effort to secure it, and it's portable, how does that change the world. I mean, it literally takes care of the oldest problem of humanity, and so that's a revolutionary thing, and so we should all take advantage of that.

So don't buy bitcoin through an e t F, take custody of it, holding yourself. That's its revolutionary. But now back to the futures ETF. So there's a couple of things you need to be aware of, um And the first thing I want to talk about is something what's called the bleed. Alright, the bleed, they're gonna bleed you dry. The bleed is a negative contribution to your performance. Because this is kind of the way these things work. So most commodity futures et F s deal with a negative

role yield. And so what does that mean? In this negative roll yield, so each month they're basically they're forced by a more expensive contract than the one that's about to expire. So we could look at a contract, so they have like an October contract, in November contract of December contract, etcetera. So let's say, for example, that the November contract is three fifteen dollars more expensive than October,

and then December more expensive than November. So what happens is the futures et F passes that that expense what's called the bleed. They pass it directly to the holders. Right now, this type of positively sloping futures curve when it's going up in value, it's called contango. You may have heard that term before. It's contango. Now contango is not your friend, well not if you're a commodity futures investor et F investor. It is not your friend because

basically what's happening is it's bleeding you dry. It's bleeding your profits. Each month you have to keep paying those fees as they roll that over that contango. Um. And so it's not your friend. Um. And so that's why it's important to understand which way you invest into bitcoin, and you understand what type of bleed you might experience in a bitcoin futures et F. Now, on a bitcoin spot et F, there is no bleed, right, there's no bleed because they're not rolling over a contract. You're just

just buying and holding. Now a bit a spot et F, which we don't have yet, hopefully we'll get one soon. Well I would prefer we had no et F at all, but if we're gonna get one, on the prefers spot But They also still come with costs and fees, of course, you know the cost to run the fund and for their attorneys and you know all that other stuff. UM, But there's no negative roll yield. They're not trying to roll those fees onto every single month. So that's a

really big thing. UM. One reason why I really am not a fan of this at all. UM. I think there's some controversy because the SEC is only approving a product with the bleed uh and and not one with physical storage, right. I don't know why they would do that. They say it's for your protection, of course, I just don't see how that's possible. But a couple of things to know about the e t F. I mean, it's

it's it's a huge market. So first of all, I said earlier that um, the big win e t F was the UM second largest e t F launch in history really kind of the first biggest, but we'll call it the second biggest. UM. And And the e t F market is huge. The global et F market is currently about eight trillion dollars and it's growing at over twenty six percent per year, which is massive obviously, UM. And uh, you know this this new investment vehicle. It does make it super easy for people to buy it.

So a lot of people, for example, they can just now buy it right from their brokerage account, right from their E Trade or Fidelity Charles Schwab account or something like that. So that is nice. It democratizes the investing, you know, in a big way. Um, And so I think this just slide right into this eight trillion dollar market cap and then grab a pretty large portion of Remember, as I said, it's growing by twenty six percent a year now. Year to date, bitcoins prices up over triple

digits up. And um, you know, if the futures e t F provides a negative twelve precent roll yield, remember rolling those fees in every single month, and e t F would still have doubled in price, which is pretty amazing because there's no other ETLs out there. They are doubling in the brice And so I think there's going to be a lot of demand for this type of

an ETF. I think we'll see investment managers tripping over themselves to finally have something where they can get access exposure to the price of the bitcoin without having to deal with it, you know, as a commodity, So I think it's gonna be really big, really big. Now there's something else that you need to call a no and as a term called cash and carry all right now, cash and carry UM is one of the oldest tricks

in the book. It's the arbitrage and UM. I think it's important to understand what this is because there's also some risk that could be there as well. But if you understand how to play this right, it could actually be a pretty big benefit for you. So I want to talk about the cash and carry and then I also want to talk about UM. One of the best known investors in the world today probably is a billionaire

venture capitalists invested in all top technology. He says that he is under invested UM and he has some very important things to say. I think that will provide a lot of perspectives. I want to talk about that when we get back as well, UM, and we're gonna talk about some countries that are continuing to grow into this Bitcoin as well. Again, is the information that you need

to participate to to take advantage of. I should say of the bitcoin, uh decentralized revolution, the cryptocurrency revolution that's happening right now. I have some big news. I want to bring it to you. Um, you're listening to the Mark Mo Show. We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Mo Show where I bring to you the latest in information on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and this decentralized revolution that's happening or right before

our very eyes. You know, it's interesting when you're living through history, you probably don't see it, you don't recognize it. But I can tell you for sure that history books will be written about this very point in time. We're living through one of the most volatile times, um, in modern history. And you know, I think most people can realize how much, how much is how much is changing in this world. But what a lot of people don't probably realize is that there's this huge opportunity sitting in

front of us. And so that's what I'm trying to bring to you each and every week. Now, before the break, we were talking about this Bitcoin e t F that went through this week. It was the biggest news that kind of rocked the world. It shot the price of bitcoin and most of the cryptocurrencies up higher this week. UM, And I think you know, for a couple of reasons.

But I think one of the big, big, big reason is obviously it it brought a lot more access to bitcoin, so a lot of people are now able to buy it directly from their stock trading and account, which is big. But I think more than that, it was also just the legitimacy factor. I think the legitimacy factor of it really helped because of this Bitcoin ETF and meaning that you know, one of the biggest complaints or I should say objections that people still throw out over bitcoin is

that the governments are going to make it illegal. People still say that all the time, and so they've they've told us they're not going to make it illegal. And now I think through this UM E t F, I mean it's kind of like the final kind of final nail that just says like we're not gonna do it, like we're not gonna make it illegal. So I think

it brought a lot of legitimacy to it. Now I was talking about UM the two different type, two main types of bitcoin E t F. So there's the futures based where betting on the future price whether the price is gonna be higher or lower UM, and then you have the spot future where you're actually buying buy it directly. Now, this is not a spot um E t F. This is only a future space et FUM, so that's important

to understand UM. And then I went through. I was talking about the bleed and a negative rule yield and so that's the fees. Basically every month they're gonna keep passing on too. So I don't really recommend this futures et F for most people. I think you're just way better off just buying bitcoin directly. But I was going to talk about something called the cash and carry. So cansh and carry is is pretty interesting and in this type of environment it kind of works out um. And

it's it's an arbitrage trade. So that means that you can buy low, sell high, and make the spread. And so basically what you do is you sell the future of the commodity and then you buy the spot if there's a risk free profit that can be made. And so what do I mean by that? So let's say that bitcoin right now is at sixty three thousand dollars or six Let's let's just say that hypothetically it's at let's use easy numbers, So let's say it's at sixty

five dollars. Um, I can buy it at spot, but I could I could sell a futures for December at sixty five thousand, or let's called sixty six thousand. So that means I could sell a contract someone would be guaranteed to buy bitcoming from me at sixty six thousand in December, but I could buy it for sixty five thousand today. Well, that means I have a guaranteed one thousand dollar profit, a risk free profit, because someone's already entered the contract to buy it from me at that price. Um,

and so that's a cash and carry trade. What I would do is I would sell the futures at sixty six, I would buy it at sixty five, and boom, I would instantly book a thousand dollars profit. Now, a thousand dollars profit may not sound like that much, but imagine if you're a hedge fund with with with billions of dollars going into this, and it's a risk free trade, it's a pretty big deal. Now, the risk free trade

is a big piece of that. I'm not going to spend a lot of time talking about that today, but um, one thing you have to think about when you're investing is you have to think about your risk adjusted return and so UM, while you may be able to make a bigger return somewhere else, you also have to take into a consideration the risk. So a risk free trade is pretty amazing. And so I think with the demand for bitcoin futures blasting off right now and the amount

of e t F flows. Remember I talked about as an eight trillion dollar market, it's growing by twenty six percent a year. With that amount of flows coming into e t F s, then I think the future prices will continue to go up and up and up, and so I would expect more of these arbitragers to come into the market and try to bank on that cash and carry trade. As they do that, then it should continue to push the price of bitcoin up, which means will continue to see this and it kind of becomes

this like self fulfilling prophecy. It's kind of like the price of bitcoin will just continue to skyrocket as this chain of events continues on um, you know, real quick. Just to jump back into the risk analysis, what's interesting is that I started buying bitcoin in two thousand fifteen UM. At the time, it was you know, a couple hundred bucks. I think three d bucks four hundred bucks at the time. But at the time, you know, up until you know, so from those five years, UM big one was was.

I mean, it still is super volatile. I went up, you know, and went up, and it went down and went up, dropped up, dropped and I saw this happening a bunch and so I wasn't super comfortable buying into it, but I finally did, and it was it was still very risky, right like, who knows what it was going to be. Who knows there was all these other crypto currencies coming on board. UM. You know, I knew it at some point the government was gonna want to fight against it UM and so there was a lot of

risk associated with it UM. And so at the time, because it was so risky, I only allocated, you know, a little bit to it UM. And over time, by seen it was way more legitimate. UM, it was much bigger. It had survived multiple crashes. UM. Now we had the CME, the commodities you know, future exchange regulating it, so it was way less risky in it was. So I put more money into it UM. But today, I mean, if I would have just taken the money I put in this year alone, and put that in back in Uh,

you probably never would have heard of me. I would have been gone long gone by now, but I didn't. And the reason why it's because there was so much risk back then. Now there's now, you know, there's less risk. I'm putting in more money, I would say today, especially now with this EF, I would say we're sitting on pretty much I mean, the lowest amount of risk that

you could imagine with still an amazing return. So going back to you know, an investor looking for a risk adjusted return, and I've been I've been a full time investor for over over two decades now, I've never seen in my entire life, in my entire career, I've never seen this good I'm going a risk adjusted return ever. And so that's that's pretty amazing to think about. As we're talking about that risk perspective. UM. Some other things

that are cool. I think about this et F is that when you look at technology, UM, the way that a new technology reaches adoption or UM you know, breaks out into the marketplace is always predictable. All right. So there's there's something called UM. There's something called the diffusion

of innovation. All right, So the diffusion of innovation basically, it basically kind of charts how that diffusion, how it gets down, how that that adoption happens, all right, and so um, you've probably all seen this like Bell curve chart where you have, like, um, the innovators in the beginning, and then you have like the early adopters, and then you have the early majority, and then the late majority and then the laggers. So you've probably seen it like

this upside down. It's like a Bell curve chart. And if you've if you've ever looked at that, you have the innovators, the techies, then the early adopters which are the visionaries, and then there's a gap there. And there's a gap there. It's called the chasm. And what's interesting about that chasm is that there was a book written

about it by Geoffrey moore Is. He wrote a book called Crossing the Chasm, and he explains that the reason why there's a chasm between the early adopters and the early majority, um is because of that chasm, and it's the hardest gap to close, and it's right around eighteen and a half percent adoption. So the innovators that they're like five the early adopters like another ten percent adoption,

and then there's that chasm. And in order to cross the chasm, to go from the visionaries the true believers, to go from them to the early majority, there has to be a mental shift, right, something has to change for that to happen and to bring those in. I want to explain to you really what that is, Like I said, what does that mental shift that has to happen? And then more importantly, what happens once we crossed the chasm? And then even more importantly, where are we in that

right now? Where are we at in that chasm? And what does this Bitcoin e t F have to do with it? Um, There's also another piece of another model that we would use, and it's called an S curve, And an S curve is also used to measure, you know, this diffusion of innovation or this this adoption cycle. And we can take this S curve and we can overlay it on top of the Bell curve diffusion chart. And

I think you might be pretty surprised with the answer. Now, if you're following me on Twitter, UM, I've put some of this onto my Twitter a few days ago, and you can actually see the charts and see how I've overlaid them. I'll explain it to you here on the radio. But if you're not following me on Twitter already you should. I'm just number one Mark Moss again, number one Mark Moss on Twitter and Instagram. Send me ms said, shout at me. Ask me a question. I'll make sure to

answer it live um next week. And of course you're listening to the Mark mos Show. We're talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the decentralized Revolution. And I'll be right back. All right, welcome back. You're listening to them show. We're talking about bitcoin, We're talking about cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution. We have been talking about the price breaking new all

time highs. We've been talking about the catalyst that we're involved in that from China banning it, which was pushing more people into it. We talked about how the government of the United States says they won't ban it, and now how Wall Street has adopted it with this e t F, which I think is really big news. I mean, I was explained to the differences of the two different types of e t F, the dangers, the really the risks that are associated with some of them that you

need to be careful of. How I think you should be buying it, which spoiler alert is don't buy it

through then ETF, just buy it directly. UM. And then I was going into talking about this adoption cycle and how there's these kind of dependable models that new technology goes through, and I was explaining how in this book by Geoffrey Moore, UM, there's a book titled The Crossing the Chasm, and it talks about how any new technology kind of goes to this this bell curve where it's innovators, early adopters UM to early ority, late majority, and laggers

and this, UH, this in between the early adopters, the visionaries and the early majority is this thing called the chasm. And the chasm is about at about an eighteen percent adoption rate, so about eighteen percent of the population would be using at that point. And it's the hardest part to get over. And the reason why is because, UM, the mind shift has to happen because the visionaries are

like the true believers. But then it's hard to get the early majority in and so we really have to change the entire way the market looks at it and UM, I think, well, we we we have that, and then we have this S curve. And S curve is another

model where we can also look at adoption. And so when we look at S curve, basically the way an ES curve works is imagine a S lane on its side, so you kind of have the S at the bottom, and then it makes a left turn going up vertical, and then it kind of makes a right turn or curve I should say, a right curve, and then goes kind of horizontal again. And and so the S curve

the way it works is UM. However long it takes for a new technology to get to ten percent adoption is typically the time that it would take to go from ten to adoption. So for example, UM, well, for for for for this purpose, UM, it took about ten years for Bitcoin to reach about ten percent of the adoption. So then that means that then UM, it should take another ten years to get to So that means that it should happen by about which is about eight years

from now. Now, if we take that S curve and then we lay that over the UM the upside down bell curve, this diffusion of innovation UM, and remember the chasm sits right around that UM line. We can if we lay the S curve over this bell curve, we can see that the current amount of bitcoin adoption today sits right at this chasm. And remember to cross the chasm is when things really take off, they blow up. And the reason why it's because we have to change

the perception UM to get across that chasm. And I think that that is what is happening right now. Remember UM. One of the biggest objections people have is that it can be made illegal, and UM we've seen in the last week or two both ahead of the SEC, Gary Gensler and the head of the Jeroan Powell, both said

they won't make bitcoin illegal. And then we got the Bitcoin e t F. And I think even though it's not the best vehicle to buy bitcoin UM or own bitcoin, well you don't even own it, right, all you're doing is betting on the price. What it does is it changes the perception, right. It changes the perspective where people who think that you know, um, Wall Streets legitimate, and now there's a legitimate Wall Street fund for a bitcoin.

It changes the perception. And that's exactly what has to happen to go from the visionary to the early majority. And remember at the S curve is when things really start taking off, right, So ten years to get to tempercent adoption and then another ten years to go from ten percent to adoptions. That's like a parabolic run. And I think that's where we're going. I think that's what this et F represents UM, and I think we're going

to continue to see fireworks. Now. Of course there's bigger catalysts, and we talked about them all the time. We saw, you know, not just what's going on in the United States, but of course we're seeing you know, El Salvador, a nation now has started adopting it UM and and that's only been continuing to grow. UM. They passed a law September seven, so I don't know, six weeks ago approximately, UM to make a bitcoin legal tender in El Salvador.

And then what they did is they created their own wallet, and anybody in El Salvador that downloaded the wallet was given thirty dollars of a free bitcoin just for downloading the wallet and using it, which was pretty cool. Since that time, anybody that got that free bitcoin and has sat on it has seen their wealth grow by about thirty five percent, so that's pretty cool. Um. And we've

also seen massive bitcoin adoption happening. Um More people I think are using bitcoin wallets than are using bank accounts in El Salvador now, which is pretty amazing. Um. Today we saw an airline Valarus Airline said now you can start paying for your airline tickets in bitcoin, and so we're just I mean, things are just really really really starting to escalate super super fast, which is pretty interesting as we continue to see this this uh, this progress.

I was also talking about wanting to kind of jump in and talk about one of the maybe most well known, you know, billionaire venture capitalist, Peter Thiel. He's famous for being involved in PayPal and running some of the biggest incubators in Silicon Valley, and he's also kind of somewhat known and uh known in the bitcoin world um as as being an early bitcoin investor, which is not typical for these venture capitalists. UM, but he he is one

of them, um that that has come in early. And he was at a it was at a meeting this last week and he said some pretty interesting things and one of the things that he said was that, well he was he was kind of drawing this comparison. He's a tech billionaire, right, That's how he new his money, being at the front end of these things. And he basically praised bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and then he slammed the central banks at the same time. This is on a

Wednesday of this week. And um, he said, quote, you're supposed to just buy bitcoin. End quote what he said, you're supposed to buy it. There's a term hoddler h o d l hold on for dear life, and you just buy and just hoddle it as it buy and hoddle it. Um. And then he went on he said, quote, I feel like I've been under invested in it. End quote. Now, anytime you buy an investment and it goes up in value, especially a big value like this, you're always going to

feel like you're under invested. Dang it, I should have bought more. It's going to be the typical response. Um. So it's funny that he said that, but that's a typical response. But also, um, if you bought something to hope it goes up in value and it goes down in value, then you also say the second thing, the opposite, which is, dang it, why did I put so much money?

In UM. So it's it's kind of funny to see someone as as as experienced as he is kind of still have that same kind of fomo approach or whatever that most of us would have, where he's like, dang, and I feel like I'm under invested. Um. But of course some of the real bitcoin believers, like myself says that if you still have any cash to put into bitcoin, then you're probably underinvested, and so he's probably there. But

I really love what he said. After that, he went on to say something, So, what have I been repeating over and over every single show and uh, this whole episode. I keep talking about having uh an asymmetric opportunity, right, more upside than downside. And I talk about UM having that asymmetric opportunity, and the way to take advantage of it is to have asymmetric information. Right, I say it

over and over, say it all the time. Well, he said um Fiel said his only hesitation about investing was that he thought, quote the secret was already known by everybody end quote mm hmm. His hesitation, so he said he was under invested. Why was he under invested? Well, his hesitation was he thought the secret was already known by everybody. He thought he didn't have an edge, He

thought he didn't have asymmetric information. Then he goes on to say he concluded that quote I think the answers are still go along and quote maybe it's still is enough of a secret. Wow, one of the biggest and Welsh most well known venture capitalist tech investors UM didn't buy enough. He says he's regrets he's underinvested because he thought it was too well known. But now he realized, quote maybe it's still enough of a secret, and it certainly is. Go out to them all, go out to

a park, talk to a hundred people. Asked him how many people UM own bitcoin? And you're gonna find out hardly anybody knows about it. Uh. The information they have is wrong and not equipped to take advantage of this opportunity. But that's why you're listening to me, That's why you're join with me each and every week. UM, I'm bringing you the asymmetric information that you need to take advantage

of this asymmetric opportunity. So pull up your phone, put a reminder to come back each and every week at this time this channel, and of course send me a message on Twitter. I'm at one Mark Moss again on Twitter at one Mark Moss and Instagram as well. Send me a message, ask me a question, and I'll make sure to answer it on the radio next week I'll Mark Moss. Thanks for listening.