The Mark Moss Show Oct 25, 2021

will see in generations. It's that big. Now, as a as a pretty much career long professional investor, we look for something known as an asymmetric opportunity, means we have more upside than downside. That's how you always think about investing. And the best way to get that asymmetric upside is to have a symmetric information. That means that you have information that most people don't know about. And so that's

what I'm bringing to you each and every week. So make sure to tune in if you can real quick. Just go ahead and pull out your phone or whatever, set a reminder to come back to the station at this time and join in with me. Now we're gonna dig right into it. I want to give you the the information that you need. And the big news this week, of course, is all time highs. We are back to all time highs. We are seeing cryptocurrencies smashed through previous all time highs and go into what we would call

uncharted territory. Now. I started out this show the first episode we did and I had my good friend Alex Gladstein on and the reason why I stated, um, and if you missed that episode, go back and listen to it. But the reason why I stated I want to have Alex on for that show is because he is head of the Human Rights Foundation and bitcoin is doing more for human rights, global human rights than any other thing

we've ever seen happen in this world today. And I wanted to put it um on the first episode, the first show, because I wanted people to know that is the most important thing. I didn't want to talk about the price. I've continued to say that I think price is a distraction. Of course, I've gone deep into that um and I don't want to spend a lot of time on that. If you've been tuning in every single week, you've already heard that. But I do just want to

just kind of reiterate that before. Of course, we jump in and talk about the price because everybody's excited. We are sitting at all time highs again right now. Um. As a matter of fact, we saw a bitcoin smashed through its previous all time high that was set right around sixty four, just under sixty five thousand, and in last night's and early morning trading we got up as high as sixties seven thousand U S. Dollars per bitcoin.

Now I've seen many people joking, um that you know, the U. S. Government has printed about eight trillion dollars over the last year, which means that your dollars buy less. They inflated the money monetary supply by about so now your dollars will buy about less goods and services. So if we're adjusted for inflation, maybe we're not back up to all time eyes. But we're not going to dig too much into that right now. But we have smashed

that that previous all time high. Ethereum, the other big token was up as high as forty three hundred, about forty three seventy five and has now settled back down about four thousand. Of course, that is taking us into uncharted territory again. The price is a little bit of a of a distraction. I don't dig super deep into this, but just from pure technical analysis standpoint, which of course technical analysis is used for people to try to kind

of forecast where these price movements are going. And you would look at the price action, you look at the candles, the bars, and then you would look at areas that had support and resistance and things like that. Well, when you get over the all time high, there is no resistance above head, so there's nothing, there's no ceiling, and so we get into what's known as a price discovery.

Anytime you have a new product, or really anything in the free market, it goes through a process of price discovery, no different if it was real estate or any other asset. And basically what that is is the price needs to find the equilibrium of what or or the kind of the middle between what buyers want to pay for it and what sellers are willing to sell it for. Of Course,

like all prices, they're driven by supply and demand. So if you have more buyers, more people that want to buy, then you do have people willing to sell, the price is going to go up. Those buyers will have to be willing to pay more um and likewise, the opposite is true, and so we're above the all time high. We're into that area known as UM. Like I said, price discovery. Now you might have heard if you're paying attention, and of course if not, don't worry, I got your back.

I'm bringing it to each and every week. But the big news this week, the big, big, big, big news was that we got a bitcoin e t F that came out. It was released. Now, I believe it's been seven or eight years now that Wall Street has been trying to get a b bitcoin e t F into the marketplace, like seven years. Dozens and dozens a dozen of them have been submitted and continually have been denied

over and over and over again. And so it's really big news at this point that we finally got a bitcoin e t F to go through, And of course that is part of what got the market so excited and blew it wide open. Now, I would definitely not say it was because of that UM. As a matter of fact, you know, the price of bitcoin has been on the rise ever since. I would say that it

might be more due to a few other things. But that Bitcoin e t F is really big news, and I want to dig into that UM I think there's a lot of dangers in this e t F that a lot of people aren't aware of. I think there's a lot of dangers for individual people that they're not aware of. I think there's a lot of dangers to bitcoin UM that a lot of people aren't aware of.

So I want to spend some time talking about that so you can navigate this correctly, not just for your own investments, but also UM, so you can just understand

and how to sidestep this danger. But before we do that, I just kind of want to dip back into kind of this this price talk a little bit, because really we saw that that previous all time high was set back in April, so it's been basically, you know, since April, we've we've been at that price level since we hit that all time high of about sixty UM in April.

We then watched the market plunge right from there and it got down, you know, dropped about fifty down into the thirty thousand range, and then it kind of bounced up and kind of sat in this like thirty two to thirty five thousand dollar range for a couple of months, basically from May eighteenth till about you know June, so about six weeks it kind of sat in that range, and I think, um, it's an understanding why the price shot back up is you kind of have to go

back to why did the price drop in you know previously. Now, the first thing I would say is that, you know a lot of people are trying to figure out the price. Um, there's not always a reason why it moves every single day or every single week or whatever. You want to look at whatever timeframe, and UM, I would say, like I said, right, I'm looking at the price a little bit of a distraction, but it's still fun to try

to understand this a little bit. And so um, what the big news was back when we hit that previous all time high is that China was banning bitcoin mining. That was a really big deal. They banned bitcoin mining, and so um, I actually had made a video about this on my YouTube channel where I break these subjects down with visuals my white board. If you want to check those out, just go to YouTube and type in

Mark Moss. And I made a video about this and I called it China's second fatal mistake, China's second fatal mistake, and I talked about how um them kicking the bitcoin miners out of the country was going to be a fatal mistake for them. They made a big mistake. And you know a lot of people going up into that point before that happened, back in May, a lot of a lot of people would would often talk about bitcoin and say, how, um, you know, it's it's a problem

because the government's could shut it down. And uh, it's also a problem because bit because China controls the majority of the mining. That was something they would always say, um. And so what was interesting is in China were trying to banned all the bitcoin mining, they literally forced all the miners to shut their equipment down and they kicked it all out. All those people had to pack up, and they had to move, and they had to leave the country. And again right they controlled over half of

the networks. That was what people are afraid of. And it was a testament for how strong, how resilient bitcoin is. It was a testament because they literally shut down over half of the network literally a brute force attack, boom shut it down, and Bitcoin didn't skip a beat, didn't even skip a beat. They continued to pump out a

new block every ten minutes. Of course, transaction times went slowed down a little bit, maybe transaction fees went up a little bit, but it didn't affect the network itself, but it did affect the price, and I think that was a big reason, probably the predominant reason why we saw the price dropped from that previous high all the way down, like I said about fifty now, but understanding that also helps us to know why it bounced back up.

As a matter of fact, there's it's one of the two reasons that we would always look at to understand where these technologies are and more importantly um where the adoption will be and the price will be um, et cetera. And so I want to get into that. You need to understand this now. If you're just tuning in, you are listening to the Mark Mass Show, where I bring to you the latest information on bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the

decentralized revolution each and every week. Again, like I say, this is an asymmetric opportunity, and I'll be right back with this asymmetric information you need to win with bitcoin. You are back with the Markma Show where we talk about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution come to you each and every week to bring you the latest up to up to the most current information you need so you can navigate this correctly. Now, before the break,

we were talking about the price. I'll talk about how the price is a little bit of a in, a bit of a distraction. It's not something you should be focused on as an investor. If you're focusing on your portfolio on a daily, weekly, or even a monthly basis, it's not gonna work out too well for you. You need to be zoomed out. And so if you're focused on the price, you're definitely gonna be missing out on

some things. But we're talking about how bitcoin got to a new all time high um and the previous high was set back in April, and I talked I was I was setting up to explain how the price of bitcoin tumbled because China destroyed half of the network, literally shut down over half of the network and force them

to get out of the country. Now, if you run a business, or let's say you even run a household, but let's say that you ran a business and you have to shut yours, you know, your business was forced shut down, sort of like what happened with the pandemic last year. But guess what, you still have expenses. That's pretty difficult, right, I mean, you still got to cover your expenses. You don't have any income coming in. So

what are you gonna do. Well, You're probably gonna be forced to start selling some assets, put some things on fire, cell clear out some inventory, something to try to get money. Now, imagine that times ten were Now not only are you shut down, but you literally have to pack your entire

data center and move it halfway around the world. And so what happened is when those when when over half of the bitcoin network was forced to be shut down by China, they were forced to liquidate their bitcoin, right, so they sit on a bunch and their treasury reserves, and so they were dumping their bitcoin onto the market to try to raise the capital they needed to move across the world. Now, of course, as I said earlier,

supply and demand. So when you have the same amount of buyers but you have an increase in supply, then typically you would expect prices to go down. And that's exactly what happened. Now, I think you know, the price of bitcoin stayed down, like I said, for about six weeks, and then it kind of jumped up and got into the forty dollar range. And then we saw something else from China. Thank you very much, China. Uh, something else

from China, and that was that. About a month ago, China said it's not just enough to ban the bitcoin mining, we need to ban all cryptocurrencies. As a matter of fact, nobody in the country can do anything with cryptocurrencies. They can't buy them, they can't trade them, they can't own them, they can't do anything. And that was about six weeks ago. And since that time, since the time that they went ahead to ban it again courtesy of them, we have now seen the price of bitcoin jump up over and

I think I think there's a couple of reasons why. Right, this is important to understand. So basically, what China did was they said, you don't have the right to hold your wealth in a way that we can't censor and steal and inflate away. Now when they tell you that, it kind of makes you want to find a way to do that. And so they're almost doing their own marketing or bitcoins marketing for us. And I think, um, it showed the rest of the world how important it

was to get your wealth outside of their system. Um and I think also in China, it's also increased the demand not only for bitcoin. UM. I had some reports from some gold people I was talking to today and they said that gold, the gold sales, the volume of gold sales are off the chart in China. Of course, the people aren't buying gold boy on that you would typically store and you're safe. They're buying gold jewelry because that's what they have available to them, and so they're

literally standing. There's long lines. At least I have been reported long lines at all the jewelry stores of people just trying to buy gold. They're trying to do anything they can to get their money out of the system. And so since that time, basically China told the world, hey, if if you don't want your government stealing your money, you should get out of the system. And since that time, Bitcoin has responded and to me, and maybe I'm just looking at this with some rose colored or we actually

call them orange colored glenses and orange colored glasses. But maybe maybe it's just me, but it's like, um, maybe the world the sane, they're ready for a separation of money and state. Maybe they're ready to see the end of this government monopoly on money at least that's what the price action is telling us. And so, UM, that happened at the same time though, and so here's where we have to continue to get into this. So at the same time it's Kindah was cracking down on it,

and the price of bitcoin responded. Um. People in the United States still say, oh, yeah, but the US will, well, we'll make it illegal, the US will ban it. Right, It's still I still hear that all the time. I think it's a ridiculous argument, one of dispelled many many times. As a matter of fact, I have multiple videos on my YouTube channel UM dedicated towards just answering that question.

Why I don't think they could, why they couldn't, why they won't, why it would destroy the United States economy if they did, all these different topics. But at the same time, right, like I said, people still think it's going to happen in the US. But we had Jerome Powell, who's the head of the Federal Reserve of the Central Bank of the United States, and we had the head of the SEC gar Agains. They're both come out and say we will not ban it, point blank. If you

need any more clear, that's about how clear they were. Um. And so they've come out and told you that they're not going to ban it. They've said that, and some people are still people don't want to believe it, and they're like, yeah, they don't really mean it to someone else is going to do it. But I think that this e t F being approved is the final nail in the coffin, Like this is like this is it Like there's just there's just no way. I mean, I

don't want to say no way. I would say the probability, the probability of the government banning it at this point is just barely better than zero. Um. At this point, we have approximately fifty million Americans own bitcoin. Fifty million Americans, so that would be a big problem if they want to suck the wealth out of fifty million Americans. On top of that, um, the United States has become the biggest beneficiary of the bitcoin mining because it was all

kicked out of China. A good majority of it came to the United States, mostly just in Texas, which is working to become a bitcoin state, which is a very interesting story in itself. And now we we have you know, most of Wall Street, from Fidelity to Goldman Sacks to you know, smaller players, UM, New York Stock Exchange, even

you know cash app and PayPal, Vinmo, Now, etcetera. UM, they're all they've all built out Bitcoin products and services and so UM if the GUP we tried to ban it, that'ld be not only have fifty million Americans on their on their case, they'd also have all of Wall Street on their case. And now with an e t F finally approved and um, as a matter of fact, it was the second fastest growing, the second biggest e t

F launch in history. And really it's kind of the biggest because the first one has an asterisk beside it. It was a carbon fund that was launched and it had a pre sell, so the pre sale kind of helped goose the numbers a little bit. UM, So it was the top one or two, let's call it, that biggest e t F s in history. And I think that just basically seals the deal. That's it. No way the government's going to make it illegal. I mean, all these things of course add up in in Bitcoin's favor.

There's dozens of Senators and congress people that own it, all of Wall Street has products on it. UM, fifty million Americans own it. But today, as of today, as of this week, we now have any E t F and that's it, in my opinion, game over. And I think that so it was a combination of China shutting it down and seeing the Resolo really ziliency there and the E t F coming on board that really put this optimism back into the market and we are off

to the races. Now. I don't typically talk a lot about the price, but I'm gonna talk about the price and more because it could be going some place. As a matter of fact, based off of the fun flow that's been going on in a t f UM. There's some people making some predictions that you might not even believe. And I bet you all want to know where the price of bitcoin could be by the end of the year. Let's say, by Christmas. Uh, let me just tell you. If your own bitcoin, it's going to be a very

merry Christmas for you. Let me tell you that. So I'll come back, I'll tell you where I think the price could be by Christmas. We'll talk about where the price could be over the next year, two, three, four, and five years. Now, you might not believe some of

these numbers. I have to report to you. But I am going to back it up with some credible information, so we'll talk about that, and then I want to dig more into this e t F because, um, like I said, there's some dangers here, not only just for you, but also danger for bitcoin overall. And I think that's important to understand. There's two different types of bitcoin e t F s. Again, you listen to the Markma Show talking about bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and the decentralized Revolution, and I

will be right back. All right, welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Ma Show, where I am bringing to you each end every week the latest information, the latest news, the breaking news, the news that you need to know about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution that's happening right now. I'm talking about the largest technological revolution we have ever seen in history. Now I'm not talking about a new technology. I'm not talking about the

uber app or the iPhone. I'm talking about a technological revolution that literally changes the way humanity works. The other thing about a technological revolution is that drives financial markets. Technological revolution drives financial markets. They happen about every fifty years, the previous financial mark, the previous technological revolution was the age of the microprocessor, which led to personal computers, telecommunications,

and the Internet. And of course, if you look back over the last thirty or forty years, what what's been driving the financial markets? And of course it's the telecommunications and the internet stocks, right, the things Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google, et cetera. And if you went back to the technological revolution before that, that would be oil and automobiles, and of course Ford Chrysler GM, oil companies, etcetera. And so you get the point. And that is what we're doing.

And so now we are talking about bitcoin, this technological revolution. It's going to drive the financial markets. And we're talking about the financial markets. Finally got in after like seven or eight years of trying to get their e t F approved and it was denied every single time, dozens and dozens of times, they finally got approved and it

is going to drive the financial markets big time. Now, I told you before the break, I would tell you where some analysts are predicting the price of bitcoin to go. Um And and I was going to explain to the different types of of of bitcoin e t F because there's two actually, and I think it's important that you understand, Um, what the differences of these are because there's there's some danger if you don't get it, if you don't get it the right way. I think there's also some danger

to bitcoin itself that I want to talk about. So before we get into the different types of the bitcoin E T F and talk about some of the dangers, because you definitely need to know that, let's talk about real quickly, probably what you've been waiting on, which is where could the potential price of bitcoin go? All right? So we'll talk about that now. Um, some people, I mean, there's there's a lot of different opinions, and of course nobody has a crystal ball, um, and so let me

just say that. But I will say that there's a lot of people who have been studying this for a long time and they kind of understand the way money flows and things like that, and so I think there's a few credible people to listen to. What I like to do is I look to look like to look for indicators or models, and then I like to look for a multiple of them, different ones, and I try to find out where there's some congruence where they agree. And so I think that's pretty important. So I'll show

you three different models. UM, and we'll also just listen to a few different people that I think are are pretty credible. Um. And so the first thing I would say is that, um, we have based off of a study researchers at a platform for x suggests that bitcoin could reach a five trillion market cap value by the start of al right, So um, right now it's at

about a one trillion dollar value. So that means it would have a five x or a five percent return by the start of which is basically two years away. So five return over the next two years, which, of course that actually sounds pretty reasonable. Um. We can see that over the last decade basically since bitcoin has been out since day one, it's averaged a two hundred percent annual compounded growth. Three that's what it's average since it's

been around. And so to get a gain in the next you know, a little over two years, two and a half years, that sounds like it's about right on track. Now. That means if you were to put a thousand dollars in, it would be worth five thousand dollars. If you put half a million in, it could be worth two point five million dollars. You kind of get the idea, that's

a pretty big number. Now to put that into kind of context, the stock market has averaged depending on what time frame you want to look at it, but somewhere around a six like like zero six like six percent to eight percent gain, six to eight percent gain, and so bitcoin has been average in a two hundred percent gain. Just to kind of put that into perspective. If some

of you guys don't understand some of these numbers. UM fund Strat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, who has been charting and looking at the bitcoin price for a really long time, says it could attract based based off this new ETF, it could attract fifty billion dollars in flows into this

new et F fund. And he thinks that we a see bitcoin getting to a hundred and sixty eight thousand dollars on this on this news d sixty eight thousand, which puts it uh about a hundred and fifty percent return from here, which again, these numbers maybe they don't make sense to but when a stock market is going up by six percent, to get a hundred and fifty percent is just incredible. Um So, so those are a couple of numbers, but I think there's some even better

numbers than that. UM. Some of the better numbers that I like to look at our UM Fidelity. So Fidelity is one of the largest financial institutions in the United States. UM, and they've been doing a lot of research into bitcoin. As a matter of fact, they've been involved into bitcoin for a really really long time since kind of the beginning since well not the beginning, but I'm going back to about two thousand and seventeen, and they've done a

lot of research. They've been they've been mining bitcoins since that time. UM. They set up a digital assets side, UM they do loans against bitcoin UM and of course then they forecast it out to their you know, subscribers and whatnot. And UM they put out some reports just a couple of months ago, it's two three months ago, I think, and it was from Jury and Timmer he's the director of Global Macro at Fidelity, and he put together this whole slide deck. UM. There's a lot of charts,

a lot of graphics. UM. Again, I have a have a video on YouTube channel that breaks all these slides down if you want to see them to get a little bit more sense of it. But basically he predict or basically his research. What Fidelity put forward was that he predicted that the value of bitcoin would reach one billion dollars her coin in about two decades, so twenty years, which is a long time. It's a long way off,

but that's what he was saying. Now, he combined a couple of charts um one something that's called a stock to flow model. Uh. The stock to flow model is basically what it sounds like. But the stock is the existing supply, how much do we have right now today, the existing stock that's available, and then the flow is the new incoming supply, like the inflow ation rate. And so you can take scarce assets like gold and silver, for example, and then you can overlay them with this

stock to flow model. Like, for example, you take all the gold that we have in the world, which, by the way, if you took all the gold in existence today and melted it all into one giant cube, I think it fits like in a football field. It's not that not that big, um, But that's the existing stock, and then we have the flow. So there's obviously gold miners all around the world that are digging gold out of the ground, um, and that's the new incoming flow.

So we have the inflation is by a couple percent couple points um, and so you you kind of look at that, and then you could also use that same kind of a chart and you could look at bitcoin with that. And so that's one way to do that. Another way that they went to look at the price is using something known as Metcalf's law. And Metcalf's law is basically something that says that UM, a networks value

grows by the number of users. And so they looked at that, and they looked at the users the networks grows and they kind of use that to extrapolate some of the value, and they said that bitcoins value should grow much faster than it does, um than the network of buyers and sellers grow. But they went on to UM. They also went on to say some stuff that kind

of walked back some of that talk. So to say that bitcoin would be worth one I know, it cracks me up just saying it, but a billion dollars per coin in twenty years, But they went and walked to that back a little bit. And what do I mean, UM, They said that you know, money is changing, Money is losing its value really really really fast, and it's it's losing value faster and faster as time it was on.

As a matter of fact, the dollar, as I think I started out in the first UM part talking about that the value of the dollars lost of its purchasing power just this year, and so UM basically, when bitcoin is worth a billion dollars, a billion dollars isn't worth

very much. That's basically what it comes down to. UM and and Timber went on to have like an example and said that like a dollar invested in stocks in the now worth like almost four billion dollars, and and like twenty years ago, UM and in twenty years, basically one billion dollars would be worth what about one million is kind of currently buying. And so you have to kind of think about things in terms of purchasing power. What would one million dollars buy me today in goods

and services? And so they're basically saying that potentially in twenty years from now, a billion dollars would buy you the same amount of goods and services that one million buy you today. So it is important to kind of keep that in uh in in a friend of mind when you start thinking about these big numbers. But they're saying that in twenty years time, you could see um

a chillion dollars being a quite common number. I want to come back and tell you where I think bitcoin price will be before by Christmas time and by the first quarter of next year. You're listening to the Markma Show, don't go away. I want to bring the price when I come right back. All right, welcome back. You are back with the Markma Show where we are talking about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and the decentralized revolution, where I bring it to you each and every week right here, the

same time, on the same channel. So just do me a favorite, real quick, pull out your phone, put a calendar reminder on there and put this channel, put this time so you can join me each and every week. Because I'm bringing to you the most important information. You do not want to miss this, I can guarantee you.

And the reason why I say that and I can put a guarantee on it is because I can guarantee you that this is going to be the biggest opportunity that you've ever had in your lifetime, and not just your life, to multiple lifetimes. And so in order to take advantage of it, you need to understand what's going on and that's what I'm gonna bring you each and

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make sure to answer that for you next week. I don't have live calling yet. We'll get that going at some point, but for now, you can tweet at me or hit me up on Instagram. Now we're going. We were talking about where the price of bitcoin could go. Of course, we went with some crazy numbers. I know, I went way crazy with that Fidelity. Their fidelity put the numbers out. That wasn't me. But they talked about the price of bitcoin getting up to one billion dollars

per coin in the next twenty years. But then of course we walked that back and said that yes, but in twenty years from now, a billion dollars will buy you about the same amount of goods and services that one million would be able to buy you right now. So we did kind of walk that back a little bit. But let's look at some other numbers. So UM, going back to the stock to flow model. UM I kind

of explained before we went to the break. It's basically the stock the existing supply, how much supply is available, and then the flow, which is the new incoming supply or the inflation rate. UM. And so that's one model that the guy who created that is a is a guy named Plan Bes, a renowned quantitative analyst UM and he he's the kind of the one that came up with a stock to flow model. He says that he'll

be caught off guard. He'll be caught off guard. He'll be surprised if bitcoin remains below the six figure mark by the end. That's what he says. Now he's he's he's a pretty smart guy. I mean he looks at this a lot, he says, quote quoting him, I would be very surprised that bitcoins price would be below a hundred thousand dollars the end of the year. That would sort of invalidate my view my models, and that would certainly surprise me. He went on to say, get ready

ready for a merry Christmas, because here we go. I do think we will see a price that is at least a hundred and thirty five thousand by Christmas, because that's what my floor model says. Basically, I'm using three kinds of models that all say the same thing end quote. So remember I talked about having that different models, different indicators that that have kind of the same message, and

that's exactly what he's saying. So, um, shoot, man, if if you doubled your money between now and Christmas, would that make for a pretty merry SMAs? I think it would promote. Now, the problem is money is not wealth. Money only communicates wealth. Money tells you how much wealth you can go acquire. Wealth is goods and services. If you have a bunch of money, if you're on a deserted island with no boat, no phone, no food, no nothing, you have money with you. It does you know good? Right?

You need to be able to have good and services, of course, And they're saying that by Christmas. Like I saw Apple revise their numbers and they said that they may not be able to get enough iPhones out for Christmas. But basically we're forecasting to have massive shortages on everything from food to electronics to automobiles. Everything is gonna be in short supply by Christmas. So while you might have a lot of money in your account, you may not

be able to buy as much stuff. But we're going to talk about that a little bit later in the show. We'll get into some of that stuff because, as we always say, bitcoin fixes this, and it can certainly fix that problem, but we're gonna stay talking about the price for right now. And so we have that stock to flow model. That's that's one of the three models. Another one we look at is on chain signals are on

chain data. Now, one thing that makes Bitcoin unique from any other asset class out there in the whole world is what's called on chain data. And on chain data is interesting because basically, you know, the Bitcoin network is is what's called open. It's anonymous, so you can see all the transactions that are happening on it, but you don't know who it belongs to. So it's anonymous, but

it's open and you can see that. And and because of that, it allows us to see this data and helps us to really understand what's going on in the network. And so, for example, if we're looking at on chain data, what we can see is um like, we can see bitcoin balances that are sitting on exchanges. We can see how many new wallets are being created. We can see

what the average purchase sizes. Another one that's super interesting is we can see the age of the coins, so we can see how long those coins have stayed put or or moved, and that helps us to understand who were the short term traders and who were the long term hoddlers, the ones that are holding for the long term. So there's some some really really interesting things that we can get from that on chain data that you just

can't get for anything. There's nothing else in the world that you can do that with, and so that's pretty helpful. One one thing that we saw with on change data, it's pretty interesting. Um just just today, over seventeen thousand bitcoin were withdrawn off of exchanges over the last hour. That's just over the last hour, that's today, seventeen thousand bitcoin pulled off of exchanges. Now what does that mean exactly? Well, first of all, seventeen thousand just to give you some perspective,

that's over a billion dollars. At one point one billion dollars was taken off of exchanges. And so when it's taken off of exchanges, that means it's going into like a private wallet like cold storage or something like that. And so when it's pulled off of exchange, that means it's not going to be exchanged or traded. Right, So if people bought bitcoin and then exchange it for another cryptocurrency, or they moved into a stable coin, um, they're buying, selling, buying, selling,

buy and selling, that'd be one thing. This is taking it off of the supply, taking off the exchange. And again remember supply and demand. And so if you take if you take seventeen thousand coins out of supply and the demand stays the same, then the price continues to go up. So that's one thing that's UM pretty interesting,

I would say from that. Another thing that's pretty interesting with some on chained data is we can see, um, we can see, like I was saying, the age of the coins, and what we can see is that over UM I think it's coins haven't moved for more than ninety days, and so that means that long term hoddlers are in control of the market. So that means there's you know, ten or of the supply that's available to buy and sell. The rest of it's locked up, it's

off the market. And that's another thing. And so that that helps us see that um. And then there's another thing called a floor model that helps us find them with the lowest possible prices, and that would use things like cost to mind, etcetera, things like that. But what we can see is that when we look at all of those, when we look at all three of those, and as plan B says, right there all kind of

showing the same thing. He says, uh quote, I would say that the top is at least um, say, six months from here, so the end of Q one of two or maybe later. He went on to say that the top end of his stock to flow model pins the price of bitcoin at two hundred and eighty eight thousand dollars at the peak of this cycle, the big number where it's sixty five thousand a day to get to eighty eight. Now, and let me just say real quick, this is not financial advice. I am not telling you

to go buy bitcoin. Don't hold me to it. All I'm doing is reading to you what other analysts are thinking. Again, I am not telling you to go buy it um. This is not financial advice, so I'll just go ahead and say that. But basically he says that these three models are pointing to that a price target of two eighty eight, So we kind of have this range somewhere between one thirty five to eighty eight, which, of course any of the those numbers I think would be okay with.

He went on to say that I wouldn't not be surprised even to see in Q one or Q two of next year prices from three four or even five hundred thousand dollars um. And so that's interesting. That's really interesting. Now going back to what Fidelity said, remember that also means that the dollars just aren't buying as much anymore. So I want you to just kind of keep that in mind as we're talking about this. But that's where

things would go. Now, that's all about the price. I want to dig in and talk about more than just price. There's more We're gonna talk about these e t f s. As I was kind of saying, there's two different types of ETFs UM, and you really need to be aware of the two different types that are available. One is way more risky than the other. So I want you to understand that what we're gonna talk about that, dangers

of that, and so forth. When we get back. You are listening to the Mark mass Show, where I bring to the latest information for bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and this decentralized revolution. Each and every week, UM, put aleut your phone, put it on your calendar, don't miss me next week on this channel. Like I said, this is going to be

the information that you need to know. It's literally going to be life changing information because this is gonna be the biggest opportunity that you will ever witness in your lifetime. And I don't want you to get caught up with the rest of the sheep and the rest of the mania. I want to bring you that information that you need to know. Um, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. Don't go away. I'm going to be right back.