The Mark Moss Show Nov 7, 2022

I got Dr Jeff Ross. We joke about him being the Perma Bear. We're gonna talk about that. We got Nico, the host of Simply Bitcoin joining us, and uh Louis lou Um and we are going to talk about the macro environment, what's going on with the markets in general, and of course how that relates back to bitcoin um. For those of you tuning in, this is a it's a warm up for us, it's a scrimmage. We are all going to be on a panel next week at Pacific Bitcoin Um, finally bringing bitcoin back to my home

state of California where it belongs. And so check out Pacific Bitcoin get your ticket, you still got time. The four of us will be on a panel together, and so we're warming up anyway. Guys, welcome, thanks for joining me today. Thanks Mark, happy to be here. Man, Yeah, happy to have you on Nico. We should we'll do another one with you at one point. But so the topic that we're going to talk about today, I think is just the macro economic environment that we're in right now, um,

and how Bitcoin relates into that. I think, Uh, you know, as we just saw the FED chair Jerome Powell the f O m C meeting met and a little bit of a mixed message at first, and then um, he tried to kind of go back and firm up his position in the comments. I do want to start off by just saying the sheer insanity of a world that we're in where we all stand around and look for the hedgehog to come out and tell us if winter

is still coming. I mean, I mean, we look for a guy to tell us what the markets are gonna be doing, the sheering entity of that. Uh and and and actually how important it is today. I mean even a decade ago, nobody probably even knew her who the chair of the Fed FED was, and today we're all sitting around waiting. But anyway, a little bit of a mixed message. Jeff, you're the permit bear. What did you

get out of that mixed message? And as again I said, like reiterated really kind of at the end what he was thinking. Yeah, it was really interesting to watch Mark. You know. At first, they they came out right off the bat raised the federal funds rate seventy five BIPs, which was no surprise to anybody. And then there is a little bit of lingo in the FMC statement that most people interpreted very quickly as hey, this is bullish,

and so the markets responded bullish. I was actually lurking around on different uh Twitter spaces and and news programs, and basically uniformly people were talking bullishly like Okay, this is good. There's basically sign of they might pause at some point, but man, then he came out at two thirty Eastern time, and he came out swinging. At first, he was he waffled a little bit, but then as he got going and he got warmed up, he got the eye of the tiger and he just started pummeling

risk assets. He pummeled the hopium out of people who I thought at least and and and this is from my perspective. Just so people know I'm very biased. I am, as to to Mark's point, I'm positioned very barish Ley, I'm shorting lots of things in the market right now. So maybe it's just because I was looking for bare sentiment,

but I thought he was extremely bearish. I mean one of his statements that I wrote down is it is very premature to be thinking about or talking about pausing, and for people who are using that as their hopium that the markets were gonna turn and and have a little bull run here, I think he just deflated all of that hopium with that statement. Yeah. The one that I saw was he said, prudent risk management suggests the risks of doing too little or much higher than doing

too much. If we were too overtighten, we could use our tools later on to support the economy. So he's like, look, if we blow it up, we blow it up, who freaking cares? We got tools that we can fix it later. So like, I'd rather risk blowing it up and try to fix it later than not blowing it up. So that to me was like, dang, what's that. What's your thoughts on that? Niko? Yeah, man, look, the reality is you know the game is up. People are starting to

wake up to the scam. The reality is that ever since the financial crisis, central banks have been working together with governments to prop up a zombie economy. The only ones who got wealthy were the one's closest to the

money printer, those who did real work, actual work. I've gotten poor and and what you're gonna see over the next couple of years is that central bankers and politicians will use every excuse humanly possible they can come up with, but blame themselves because they're the ones solely responsible for what is to come. If you're under the age of thirty five at this point and you don't have bitcoin, I got very fortunate to get into bitcoin when I did.

You're nothing more than a Russian surf. You don't own anything, right, Even their own propaganda says it. They want you to quote them, not me, to own nothing and be happy. Right. We are at that point in the movie and it's absolutely ridiculous. So anything that comes out of power to me, it's just noise. What I'm focused on mark nowadays is how bitcoin is going to bring up the future that I want to live in, In the future that I want my kids to live in It's an absolute, it's

a joke. I came up with the meme is the last thing I'm gonna say. I came up with a meme yesterday of that famous picture of Mao Zedong in front of you know, the Forbidden City in China, and I face swapped it with Pal's face, and I said, the chairman is is about to make an announcement on the direction of the U S economy. How is this any different than communism? It's like we're at this part of the movie. And I was fortunate enough to be on with Jeff Booth yesterday and he said it best.

He's like, look, every central bank that ever exists in human history has always ended up with the socialist takeover. And I think this is not to get too political. I think this is exactly where we are. Well, it is political. You can't separate. You can't separate the politics and the economics anymore. And to the point that you just made, Nico, um, how is this any different than communism? It's not, you guys know, shameless plug here. I recently

released a book called The Uncommunist Manifesto, and um. When Marx wrote the original book, The Communist Manifesto, He laid out ten points of communism. In order to achieve communism, we must have these ten things. Point number three, a heavy progressive tax system. Point number five a central bank. A central bank is communism, per Coral Marx. Not in my words, that's his words. So how's it different communism?

It's not. That's exactly what it is. You control the price of money, You control the price of everything anyway, Lewis, So let's le strow it over to you. So, um, he's extremely hawkish. Uh, it's insane that some guy has the power to control the money supply. But but that's where we're app Um. But bitcoin is kind of holding

on like a boss. What's your thoughts? Yeah, I think the market start to realize that, you know, some of the Rick's action has been down sep from the top, and I think people are looking at those as you know, wanting to scoop it up as a cheap at the bitcoint kind of like a different type of risk action.

Entering into this new micro environment with fathers raising interest rate and people are rushing to you know, cash and there's a lot of cash sitting outside in the in the bank right now, you know doing um the city City bank deposit to earn you know, years on it, or you know they lend it out for fixing colm type of investment if it that you know could switch anytime, you know, as long as UM there there's people speculating on fout reserve pivot. But I don't see that happen

anytime soon. But some of those Rick's ACTA that's highly you know, get hammered out. It's going to have a chance or it's not going to go down that much compared to some off those uh Tex stocks that hasn't even got down the dog. Yeah, but we saw that, we saw that the stock markets went down. I mean they I think kind of the point Jeff was making earlier, like they kind of rallied a little bit into the pre meeting and then at post meeting it was like, no,

they got crushed. But yet Bitcoin seems to be holding on. UM. It seems like, you know, maybe looking at some of the on chain metrics that maybe we're kind of have found some of the support level, and there seems some seems to have been a lot of defending along that level. UM. I want to I want to keep digging into uh kind of what this means for the macro picture. UM.

There was a report that came out this week. I saw um bitcoin wants to break its bond with stocks and showing how the correlation has dropped to one of its lowest levels. I'd like to get Jeff's opinion on that. And then I want to talk about something I said. I made a video talking about how, um, how maybe there isn't another big market crash in front of us, even though the picture is bad. We're gonna cover all that and more. You're listening to the Mark Mos Show.

If you're just tuning in. We talked about the decentralized revolution, the way the world is changing, of course looking at through the lens of politics, finance, and technology. I'm in the studio with three guests, Jeff Ross, Nico and Louis lou talking about the macro economic picture and of course what happens with bitcoin in that environment. We'll be back with all that and more in a minute. You don't want to miss it, don't go away, We're gonna be

right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Mo Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution. And right now I am joined in the studio with three guests, Dr Jeff Ross, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, and Louis lou and we're talking about this macro economic environment. And uh, Jeff, you know, the while we can look at bitcoin, bitcoins holding on extremely well, it's been stuck in this very tight range for a long period of time.

As I kind of mentioned right before the break, it's slid to like its lowest level of correlation, it's down to zero point to six UM. And inside of all that bad news that happened, it seemed like Bitcoin has been holding on now as good as UM, as good as the metrics look, you know, whether you want to look at it from a technical analysis standpoint and on chain metric standpoint. I also looked like to look at the global pictures, so we're seeing a lot of adoption

happened in third world countries, etcetera. UM, in light of all of those positive things, it seems like the macro picture, the macro bear is still in the driver's seat. How do you frame that up? And what do you think about just that that picture there? Yeah, great question Mark. I agree with you, and I agree with with your take on this. You know, as as long as global liquidity is generally contracting, Bitcoin historically hasn't done very well.

Like these are the years where Bitcoin tends do not do well, and it tends as as as those of us who have been in the space, no, it explodes higher during the times of global liquidity expansion. So unfortunately, we're in this period of continued contraction we're at We're heading still down in the business cycle slope, and I think that we're gonna see continued kind of just rough macroeconomic conditions for about the next nine months or so.

I think we're still gonna be talking about this all throughout the first half of three especially as we dip into a recession. Bitcoin has become somewhat uncorrelated in the near term. However, I think that when the floor drops out, if if they do, if the floor does drop out, under risk assets like NASDAC stocks like the SMP, things like that just just by it'll it'll be guilty by association,

and I think it pulls Bitcoin down with it. As people get called for get their margin calls, I think they're going to take some of that liquidity, unfortunately out of Bitcoin and that's going to pull the price lower. That's my take. So if if, hypothetically if and maybe we can talk about percentages or base cases, but there's a good probability that we see another big crash coming, if we see a recession to your point, So if the markets were to crash, for example, then it could

easily pull Bitcoin down another to percent potentially. Yeah, that'd be That's about my take. Ye. Now, um, Nico you had mentioned that you think, you know, for younger people, this is the great opportunity and how this is you know, kind of Jerome Powe and the Fed is kind of maybe showing their final hand so to speak. Right, Um, one thing I was looking at this morning is, um, you know, the banks want to want to continue their scam with the central bank digital currencies, and um, they're

trying to rush them out. China is trying to rush them out. Um. In Nigeria they're trying to rush them out. Um. They have a really high penetration on cell phones. But in China, reports are that the adoption of the central bank digital currency has slowed down so much nobody wants to use it, and in Nigeria, nobody wants to use it. Either. And um, it's like the people are saying, we already have cryptocurrency, what's the point of essential bank digital currency?

We don't see how that and this is a according to quotes from people there in Nigeria, we don't see how that is going to protect us from all the problems that we have with high digit inflation, manipulation, etcetera. So do you think that this global adoption, uh, we move when we have need. The pain is very high in those countries, they're moving at a rapid rate. Do you think this rise could be enough to offset some of this macro picture that we have. I think definitely

on an individual level for sure. Um. And it's really interesting because, uh, you know, back to a couple of weeks ago, is maybe it's about a month ago, the Biden administration released the Digital Asset Framework, which everybody was looking forward to. And in that framework, it basically was an executive action that asked all the other branches of government to you know, look into, uh, look into the future of money. Treasury released a report literally called the

Future of Money. And then that entire report, I kid you not, bitcoin is not mentioned one time. What was mentioned was the future of money in the air eyes is central bank digital currencies. They mentioned stable coins and they also may mentioned payment platforms. Now, the reason that central bank digital currencies will never be adopted in from my perspective without coercion is because they will never be able to match bitcoins incentives. And that's what you're seeing

on a worldwide level. And what do I mean by incentives Two things, right, Governments will always want to censor and control, and governments will also always want to debase because via that debasement is how they pay for the bureaucracy. That's how they pay for themselves, and they'll never want to give that up. But you're seeing more of this in developing countries because I believe it's do something. It's due to something called and Alex Gladstein wrote an amazing book.

It's the names and the name of the book says it all. It's called financial privilege. Right, And if you lived in the developed country, you have the privilege of using a currency that has an inflation rate ever so little that you don't really realize it's stealing from you, especially if you have a good job. But what's happening in Nigeria, what's happening in Venezuela. What's happening in Argentina.

You're talking about double digit inflation. So when the government over there goes out and says, hey, guys, look at my central bank digital currency, they're looking at their government and saying, what does that fix? What does that do? And it's funny because the United Nations released the report and I'm paraphrasing here. The name of the report is called um UM. It's called We Must Stop Cryptocurrency Adopting adoption in Developing countries, and it advocates for central bank

digital currencies. It says how this is going to lead to horrible things if you know, if if, if national currencies are circumvented. But once again, Mark, just like the Treasury report called the Future of Money, it never mentions the reason as to why people are looking for alternatives. And the reason why, I believe is they're actually trying to save their wealth, their time, their energy from currency debasement. And we both know, Mark, the only true cryptocurrency that

is going to be able to provide that is Bitcoin. Yeah, for sure, I think to your point, yes, horrible things will happen if cryptocurrencies are adopted. Horrible things to their monopoly on the financial system. That's a horrible thing. But here's here's what they want to do with central bank digital currencies. Let's hear it directly from the head of the B I s Mr Augustine Carson, and see what

he has to say. In particular for the use of general to the general use, we tend to establish the equivalence with cash, and there is a huge difference there. For example, in cash, we don't know, for example, who's using a one dollar bill today. We don't know who is using one. This will be until day So that's their problem. They don't know who's using it. They don't

have control. The next clip, I'm not going to play it for time, but he says, and central bank digital currencies will give us all the power and control to do that, unlimited power and control. So I think we have this battle. I've been saying as investors, we and Jeff you coulda I'm sure say the thing. But as investors, what is looking for what I call the mismatching perception and reality. That's our edge. If everybody knows it, there's

no edge there. And so the perception is it's like this Wall Street trading toy and it's being traded like a Wall Street, like a tech stock. The reality is it's not. The reality is it's a lifeboat for lots of people, potentially half the people in the world today, and they're realizing it. Um. If you're just tuning in, you listen to the markma Show. We're talking about, of course, each and every week, the decentralized Revolution, talking about bitcoin

and the decentralized technology. And in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, with Niko from Simply Bitcoin and Louis Lou talking about the macro environment and bitcoin. I want to come back in a minute. We're gonna talk about more what's gonna happen, So don't miss it. We'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Mox Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution, of course

being led by bitcoin, the decentralized technology. I'm in the studio with Jeff Ross, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, and Louis Lou. We're having a warm up for our panel we're having next week at the Pacific Bitcoin Conference in Los Angeles. UH bringing bitcoin back to my home state here Southern California. Excited to check it out. If you don't want to

have a ticket, you should. Um. So let's talk about this um from another level, because I think the one thing that I always want to try to bring attention back to is time frames. So doctor Dr Bear, Dr Jeff Ross, Yeah, we joke with the Bears, right, but

it's uh, but it's always like time frames. And so Nico talked about being younger and how if you're if you're in your thirties, is this amazing opportunity And I'm guessing from that and we'll go back to him, but um, he's talking, well, he's younger, so has this long time frame. Dr Jeff Ross is extremely bearished. Maybe in the short time frame, so maybe in the next six months, nine months, twelve months. I would imagine over the next five, ten years.

He's also bullish or positive about it. So we kind of have these time frames. They're right at some point the emerging markets will flip the Western markets maybe, right, but over what time frames? So let's talk about that a little bit. Um. Actually, before we talk about that, I made a comment before we started recording. I want to dig into and I made a comment that when I make my videos on YouTube, everybody wants the bad

news and nobody wants the good news. And I had made a video talking about maybe there is no market crash show Dr Jeff, you had mentioned that maybe if, if, if there's this fifty percent crash or whatever, this percent crash is going to be in front of us. And of course there's plenty of data to tell us that this is the case. We can look at fractals that show the markets just like the grab Sure two thousand eight crash and it's supposed to, you know, have this

perfect retracement and it's going to crash again. We can look at the horrible data, no shortage of of horrible data. Um. But I made this video and I said, are you one hundred percent certain that the market's going to crash? Nobody can be hunters in certain so maybe you're nine certain. So what about that ten percent? Should we look at that?

And so what we should try to do instead of always trying to confirm our own biases, we should also we should really be looking for data that tries to go against our bias, to see where we have holes and things like that. And so I kind of made this this video and said, maybe maybe there's a thirty or forty percent chance it doesn't, and so let's take a look at that. And I'd like to get your

guys take on this. So basically my case, and I'm not going to break it down long for for sake of time, but um, I would say that what I'm thinking is that, um, the data is horrible and it should crash, and it certainly should. But we know that the markets and the and the and the economy are not the same. We saw the entire world economy. I shut down businesses, we shut down, but yet markets rallied to new all time highs. So there's a complete disconnect there.

And my thinking, Jeff, is that the FED is moving so fast, not just the FED, but the central banks around the world are moving so fast, and things are getting so bad so quickly that things are going to break. And we know they're going to pivot at some point, at some point being the key word, at some point, most likely when the liquidity is sucked out of the system. Right at some point they're going to be forced to act. Now when I don't think they're looking at the markets.

I don't think they care about the NASDAC or the SMP five hundred but when the banking system freezes, they're going to be forced to act, and the thought processes the markets are sort of calling their bluff. Everybody knows they're going to have to pivot at some point, so who can hold out longer? And the thought process is maybe things break and the FED is forced to pivot off of that before the markets get that draw down,

what's your thoughts on that? And like maybe probabilities of that, So that's a definite possibility the in your right, like as investors, we have to think in terms of probabilities, right, not absolute. So that's why I use things like trailing stop losses in case I'm wrong. I have my macro views, but I can certainly be wrong. I've been wrong lots of times, and I'll be wrong lots of times in

the future. So where could we be wrong now? Right? So, yes, if the system breaks, if we see basically the banking system frees up, if we see some instability or signs of trouble and the treasury market UM, that would cause them to swoop in and act and they would definitely

start buying bonds. The thing that I think is a little bit different this time around, though, UM is that I think they're still going to raise keep rates at this higher level for longer, even if they do come out in buy bonds, and even if the Treasury comes out, you know, Janet Yellen sort of um alluded to the fact that they may do some clever buying, maybe like an operation twist from the Treasury itself where they issue some short term bonds and buy longer dated bonds. Um,

they may do that. That would be kind of a que type move. Um. Certainly that could happen. Certainly if the system breaks in the bond market starts to seize up a bit um, that would force them to act. So I totally concede that, and I think if that does happen, by the way, it would be um in uh concurrent with equities dropping precipitously, so similar to kind

of a March type event. I think that if we see serious trouble in the bond markets, I think equities are absolutely gonna crash and it could sort of pull forward all of this barishness all into one you know, one week or one month or something like that at the point. And then at that point I could see the Fed pivot and we'd we'd be on our way to the next bull market. What would you say the probability of the FED breaking and being forced to pivot

there before the stocks dropped by or whatever. Is that a chance the thirty or fifty even lower than twenty. I think kind of a ten percent chance, I would I'm yeah, that's very pretty unlikely for me to happen. I think that equities are so sensitive to that that I think they would, uh, they would be dropping pretty precipitously, but obviously could be wrong. Yeah, I would say I'm

more the thirty camp. I've had these this conversation, this exact conversation at length with Nick and Nick Botia from the Bitcoin Layer, and he says about fifty. So just for everybody listening, but none of us have a crystal ball Lewis, what do you? What do you think about that?

I'm pretty much agree with Dr Rupert Ross here. I think FAT has been very clear on the interest rate and on the monetary policy, and I think the next you're gonna see is the FAT is going to cut the balance sheet to the point that markets are jupanic

and um and we haven't even reached there yet. We're just raising the interest rate UM, you know quarter by quarter and now we are we are seeing you know, there's a possibility the FAT is going to cut the balance sheet maybe next year if one or Q two UM, and that's going to cost a lot of the equity problem, uh in the in the markets especially you know, bond and equity UM definitely not seen an end to this.

And I'm not gonna sounds so barries because I'm I'm invested in bitcoin UM, but bitcoin is going to correlate it with the equity market UM. And there's no escape for this because it's still at risk asset for some institution to own UM. And but the longer term, after the maybe we are just speculating on the big crash before the FAT pivot um bitcoin. Should we have a larger run up after that? But for that you happened when did you have a serious it commic contraction a

recession UM? And how how the FAT is going to monitor the recession is going to be the very tricky thing, because why do we need that? You said, we said we need it? Why why do we need It's not we need the registered sssion, it's the fact it's intentionally pulling the economy into recession to stop the inflation rising and stop the speculation bobo going on in there. But just like they did inwy they literally shut the entire

economy down, but we still saw markets rally. Yeah. Yeah, but we probably need some sort of a crush before the fast started to take the moltary current, the current monetary policy seriously before to acting. People just parting in

the cash, parting the fixed income type of investment. Um. Maybe they want to buy some insurance such as bitcoin to prevent you know what, I what I see is the total collapse of the monetary policy of the FAT and this they will be losing a lot of trust and and they have to bring a lot of money

just save what they have done. Yeah, definitely, And you know what, I what I see, the faster things fall apart, the more they react and overreact, and it's almost like they're just doing our marketing for us, just building the reasons why we need this. As I said kind of earlier, that we only as humans, unfortunately, we only typically act when the pain is high enough. Right. The drug addict doesn't go to rehab until they hit rock bottom or whatever.

I don't go see the chiropractor until I throw my back out or whatever. But in emerging markets, they know why they need it, which is why their first two adopted. In the United States, you're going out to a bar in Manhattan ordering a fifteen dollar cocktail and you're like, oh, why do we need new money? And you just don't get it. But they're certainly showing us. If you're just tuning in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. Of course,

we talked about the decentralized Revolution. I am in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, Nico from Simply Bitcoin, and Louis lou We are talking about bitcoin and the macro picture. We got a lot more to cover. We'll be come back in a minute. Don't go away, We'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. We are in the studio today with I got three special guests, Louis lu Nico from Simply Bitcoin and Dr Jeff Ross.

We're warming up for the Pacific Bitcoin Conference coming up next week. If you don't already have a ticket, check it out. Just go on do uh your favorite search engine. It's for a Pacific Bitcoin and check it out. We'll all be there hanging out. Come see us now, UM talking back about this kind of macro picture here and and where where a bitcoin fits in? Um? You know, Nico, when you look at like um, how the governments have responded to printing too much currency, debasing currency? N three.

They seized gold, um, and then they gave you money for it, But then they quickly devalued gold from twenty to thirty five bucks, and then you lost even more money. But if all my gold was in the bank, I got screwed. But if I had a working ranch with a hundred thousand head of cattle, didn't really bother me. Right, I was out of their game. So if as long as we're in their house at their party, then their rules can affect us. If we're outside of their house

at our own party, maybe they don't. In that example of the gold, I know you're younger, you have this longer viewpoint this this land. But is that maybe a way you're looking at it, or or if so, reframe that for me. Absolutely. Look, the reality is that we are living just like human and human history. We went through this separation of church and state. Hopefully this is

a lot less bloody. Right, we're living through the separation of money and state, and the state gets a tremendous amount of power from having the monopoly on the issuance of money, which everyone else has to work for. Right, It's it's crazy how that works. Right now, Bitcoin in this equation is for the first time in human history, no matter what country you are in, you can memorize a twelve word seed phrase, and you could store millions,

billions or trillions of dollars theoretically in your mind. And now all of a sudden, you have the power to not only vote with your wallet, but you have the power to vote with your feet, right, And that completely changes the power or the relationships between individuals and what I call the mob, the collective, the government, the state, right, And that's the future we're heading into. But the state isn't just going to go gently into that good night.

So what you're seeing, right is you're seeing the social attacks, whether that's the attacks on proof of work. Mining. Without proof of work, you know, you can corrupt bitcoin. Bitcoin is what keeps bitcoin. Uh, proof of work is what keeps bitcoin uncorruptible. Right, So you know when Europe they're already touting it out, we should ban bitcoin mining, and you know the Chinese Communist Party did it in mainland China. Uh in New York State, they banned it, you know,

for environmental reasons. Right, that's bs right, It's all about power at the end of the day. And the second attack, which I believe is going to be a lot more nefarious and definitely more successful if you know, the educators don't do the job. Is the right to self custody, and that ties in with what you were saying about the gold mark. Right if individuals, because this is what

the bitcoin revolution is about. If enough individuals take their bitcoin into self custody, there's absolute reolutely nothing the state could do about it. Because the difference between what happened with the six one o two order in the nineteen nineteen thirties with FDR is that because gold is so heavy, it is really hard to custody, right, unless you're gonna build a giant safe under your house or you know,

keep it under your bed. So what most people did is they outsourced that responsibility to banks, and it became very easy for the government to co opt a handful of banks. Right, and if people don't take self custody. The same thing is gonna play out. It's gonna be very easy for governments to just co opt a couple of exchanges six one oh three it maybe it's not too maybe it's a six one oh three, and they'll

just rug poll everybody. They'll hand them, you know, the new version of you know, the the new version of whatever FIAT they come up with. And the only people that we're actually going to be able to hold onto their wealth completely are the are the individuals that learned how to take how learned how to learn how to take self custody. So I hope that answers your question, mark, Yeah, definitely.

You know, back to kind of this debasement. So as the FED creates more money into existence through all the policies and tools that they have, um, it devalues the existing ones. Right, there's more of them, they're worth less. And that's why inflation prices going up is because of of that edition of the money supply. Whereas bitcoin, one bitcoin is always worth one bitcoin. You can't artificially increase

increase more. Now when you look at it in a US dollar term, because the US dollar number is manipulated, it can look like that one Bitcoin gets you less dollars. But I think we could see, you know, back to kind of our example of Nigeria, for example, where the government really starts to impose the central bank digital currency and what happens in black markets as you see prices

all over the board. So maybe you know this bag of rice that you want priced in their central bank digital currency is one price, but in Bitcoin it's a whole different price point. And so you could see Bitcoin really kind of starting to build out this parallel ecosystem, is parallel economy, and you could see then that price of what Bitcoin gets wouldn't be manipulated because it would be on its own economy. And that's one way I

see it really starting to break out. As this plays out, I want to jump back over to Dr Jeff Dr Jeff Ross here, so um, let's run through just kind of like, uh, maybe what your base cases. We're all very clear here there's no such thing as certainties. Uh, everything is possible, but then we have probabilities. So like base case, so do you think, uh if I if I, if I read it right from you, maybe Jeff, it's like you know, probably you already kind of said the

economy crashes into three. At some point, the liquidity drives up. At some point when the bank sees up, the Feds force to pivot. Uh. Just like they've overreacted every time, they'll probably overreact again. Probably assets go sky high. Is that something that plays out in the next three months, twelve months, three years, just a base case obviously, Uh, I don't know if if you want to answer that. Sure, Sure, obviously I'm just guessing, Like you know, we're all just guessing.

So take it, take it all with a grain of salt. But the way I look at it, I think this economic cycle is it looks like it's going to bottom um in probably the summer of three, somewhere around that, you know, and markets are forward looking, and bitcoin being the freest of markets, the truly only capitalist market, it's going to see this coming out first. It's gonna sniff the light at the end of the tunnel, just like

it's sniffed trouble under the hood way back in November. Um. So, the way I see it is, I think we're going to be in the throes of a recession throughout the first half of It's gonna get even uglier into the summer. But risk assets should bottom somewhere around there. They usually bottom kind of in the first half or first third of a recession, and then they actually start to come up even as the economy continues to kind of struggle

and grind lower. Um So, I actually think by the end of three we're going to be on an up slope finally with bitcoin, and then I think that's gonna set up for five to be again this massive infusion of liquidity QUEI infinity is going to be in full effect. Risk assets will do well, and I think Bitcoin is going to be the primary beneficiary of that. Very excited for Yeah, I'm just gonna add on to the back of that, just as our own disclaimer is that we're

all in in chartered territory. Things are happening so fast, we're at a as I said, started out the show, the insanity of of somebody telling us what's what's happening, and so none of us know, and so really we're taking this play by play, and so even though we can think, Okay, this is probably what happens, they can come out tomorrow just change the whole thing. And so really you have to kind of be paying attention to that. Um So, I just kinda throw that out, Louis. We

got just another minute left. What's your thoughts on how this plays out over the next you know, year or two three years. Yeah, I think bitcoin is still the most desirable US you know, during during DOS recession time and the market crush and and after that, you know that the equity that will pull in from the fat um. You know. I think there's so many reasons that you know, people should own bitcoin, not just be cost him by Corn calling me is bad, um or my Cody column

is good. I think I think, I think like this, like bitcoins is just an insurance against this, you know, um, the father reserve, the center banking that has alradio of control and you need that kind of insurance to hatch against you know what if um, you know, the voluntary policy that we used to know collapse and in the next couple of years, right, and I think we should buy bitcoin to hatchick and stuff that's right by bitcoin. You're listening to the Mark Moa show. We're talking about

the decentralized Revolution. Each and every week, I've been in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross. You can find him on Twitter at the Doctor at Dr Jeff Roth. We got Nico at bit Vault seven at bibill seven, and Lewis at Louis H. Lou So check him out on Twitter, give him a follow. Like I said, this is a warm up to Pacific Bitcoin that's coming up next week in Los Angeles. If you don't have a ticket, you

should get one. Uh. Hopefully this made some sense. Hopefully it gives you some clarity, and that's what I got. Thanks for listening.