The Mark Moss Show Jan 14, 2022

happen fast, sometimes things happens slow. But uh, right now, we have seen a lot of things, and unfortunately the price of bitcoin is a little bit down. Um, it's off its peak. It was as high as sixty nine thou dollars and sitting and sitting now trying to kind of recoil and grab some energy in the fifty thousand ish range as we speak right now. But don't fret,

don't fret, just a little break. I mean, we were literally a year ago at thirty thousand, and today we're consolidating around fifty thousand, which seems like a pretty good increase to me. To go from thirties thousand to fifty thousand in a year, I'll take it. It's better than any other markets have done. Now did go up aside sixty nine thousand, and it's down own. But you're focusing on the wrong thing. Are you a are you a glass half full or a glass half empty kind of person? Right?

So think about that. Um. Now, if you need any bid hope, let me just give you a piece of news that broke this week and then we're going to dive into something that I'm gonna have one of my good friends, Nick bodia On, he's a USC adjunct professor, and he wrote something that says, the price is truth, the price is always the truth. Now, well, if you don't like the price where it's at today, maybe you don't like the truth, but let's talk about where the

price could potentially go. So, um, If you, you know, pay attention to money at all, chances are you probably heard of Goldman Sacks, Golden raise your hand. If you heard of Golden sac well, I can't see you raising your hands though, never mind, but Goldman Sacks. Unless you've been living under rock, you know who Goldman Sacks are. They are the UH financial affirment in the United States

and really in the world. You've either worked at Goldman Sachs and then the government and the government and the Golden Sacks in your base of the same and uh, you basically kind of run the world at this point. Let's just kind of saying like that. Goldman Sacks came out with an article this week just the other day that said, despite bitcoin's ebbs and flows, they believe bitcoin could reach a hundred thousand dollars Wow. As it's as they say, it's steadily pushing out gold's place in the

store of value market. Mm hmm. They said. After topping out nearly at seventy November, then bitcoin decided to decline. As we talked about that, but bitcoin's Goldman Sacks puts bitcoins float adjusted market capitalization at just below seven hundred billion store of value market assets that gain or stay stable over time. Gold is presently at two point six trillions. So what they're saying is that, um, the gold market

is really it's it's a lot more than that. Um. But but they're talking about the percentage of gold that people use. And typically people would move to gold to what I call a chaos hedge. So whenever there's chaos in the markets, whether there's massive inflation, deflation, or whatever type of chaos is going on, then people would turn

to gold. Historically. What they're saying is Goldman Sachs, not me, although I agree what Goldman Sachs is saying that they are seeing bitcoin taking up that store of value market that retail would typically go to UM and now it's going into bitcoin. UM. They say that it's about you know, the percentage of people, the percents of of the market gap that people would go to for the store value

markets about two point six trillion and uh. They said that in the next five years bitcoin making up as much as fifty percent of the entire store of value market. So right now, UM, the amount of bitcoin or the bitcoin is being used as a store value. What does that mean store of value? Well, when I earned my money, I'm storing my energy to be used at another point

in time. So, for example, to break this down to kind of the first principles level, if I was saying digging a hole and I'm expending so I I consume calories, I eat food, that's calories. Those calories are energy in my body. I expend those calories that energy by digging a hole. Let's say I have to dig a hole for four hours in a day to earn enough to give me my food and shelter that I need to survive. But let's say that then I decided to work an

extra four hours. Well, i've worked an extra four hours, expend an extra four hours of energy. Now I need to be able to store that energy in a way that I could use at a later in time. So now I could use that energy for tomorrow and I don't have to work all right, So I'm storing my wealth, storing my energy, storing my value to be used at a later in time. Now, typically people do that with money. So you earn money, you don't spend all your money.

You store some of it. But money currency dollars are the worst. Are a horrible store of It's a horrible place to store your value because that that value leaks, It loses value very quickly. And so most people realize this, which is why they're scrambling to buy anything they can as fast as they can, including homes, including cars, including stocks, including bitcoin, or mountain bikes or kayaks or whatever it else is that you want to buy. Toilet paper, Some

people are stocking up on toilet paper. So what they're saying is the store of value market typically historically has been gold, but now bitcoin is overtaking that, and they believe that over the next five years that store of value market that gold is you know, pretty much dominated,

is going to be UM. More people are moving to bitcoin, and they think over the next five years, as much as fifty percent of the store of value market would go into that, and they would put the value of bitcoin at around a hundred thousand dollars on an annual return of about that's pretty damn good. I'll take a return, especially when you have averaged out over over that time, especially when you look at gold, which has dropped three point six percent in UM as part of the biggest

annual decline since heen. So while gold has dropped three point six p during one of the most chaotic periods in history, UM one of the highest. As a matter of fact, we hit the highest inflation level that we've seen in forty years, in four decades the most inflation, and gold lost value. So it's not hard to understand why people would rather store their value in something else. They want to say that golden crypto. When you start

to think about them, there's a lot of the same attributes. UM. You said that there's a finite supply, there's only twenty one million, they say in this article crypto coins. Uh, the only twenty one million crypto coins can be made, So you've got this finite supply, just like you do with gold. That is not accurate. I'm going to call them out. There's a lot more than twenty one million

crypto coins. There's only twenty one million bit coins. So, as I like to say, bitcoin not crypto h I said in a previous set, meant that just like gold has certain attributes and properties, and there's lots of other metals palladium and platinum and silver and rhodium and grow molley and steel and aluminum, blah blah blah, um, only

one has the attributes that gold has. And just like bitcoin, Um, there's about, I don't know, fifteen thousand cryptocurrencies, but only one has the attributes Open border list permission listens as a resistant, immutable, et cetera. And so to his point, his finite supply, bitcoin only has twenty one million. Other cryptos have more. But that's the same as gold. Right. In order for something to hold value, it has to

be scarce. All the all the basics of economics all is based off of scarcity, which, of course we all only have twenty four hours in the day, and so our time is based off of scarcity, and everything that we do in order to push our lives forward is based off of that scarcity of time. And there's more people than there are resources. Resources are finite, which means we have scared city and resources which means that we're

all competing for more resources. UM. And so when you have an unlimited money supply, when they can literally push a button on a keyboard and print up trillions of more dollars, it messes up this whole system. But that's why gold has worked good for five thousand years because of a finite supply. Now there is new gold coming out of the ground on a regular basis. But Bitcoin

is programmed to never have more than twenty one million coins. Now, some people say, yeah, but can't that be changed UM Theoretically, I suppose it could. Theoretically, realistically probably not UM. In order to get that changed, it would it would take UM basically an attack on the network. It would go through probably a year of battle, and if that happened,

it would probably destroy the network. But we would know well in advance if that was ever going to happen Uh, and we'd have plenty of time to figure that out. Of course, like I said, that's theoretically realistically probably not um, but that's the price. Now. Like I said, we're gonna have Nick Body coming on as USC professor and he's going to talk to us about the price being truth.

And then we're gonna talk about um something that I'm super interested in, which is is the bitcoin e t F and the paper supply of bitcoin going to artificially suppress the price of bitcoin something I'm worried about. I'm gonna be right back with Nick in just a second, uh, talking about prices, truth and what's happening with the bitcoin e t F. So don't go away, all right, Welcome back.

You are listening to the Mark Mo Show, and we are talking about bitcoin, and we're talking about this decentralized revolution. And I am joined in the studio now by one of my good friends, Nick Botia. You can find him on Twitter at time Value of BTC that stands for Bitcoin time value of BTC and um. Nick is um On the author of a book called The Layered Money, which is an amazing read. I think, uh was I think Preston pistaid it was like one of his top

books of the year. I think that was. That's pretty amazing. He reads like hundreds of books a year, So a good job on that, Nick. Um. And Nick, you're also a adjunct professor I think of economics at US see is that right? That's right at USC Marshall School of Business. Yeah, so you are somebody very credential to talk about this. So thanks for joining me today. Nick. Of course, good to be with you. Mark. So, Um, something I want to talk about, I know you talk about price is truth.

There's all the price takes into consideration, all of the data that's out there. And something that I've been concerned with for a couple of years is these et f s coming into the market. Um. Caitlyn Long has been talking about this, and Um, you have a little bit of a country and view to this. Now. My fear with this with this bitcoin market is I believe that maybe it's too simple, but price moves off supply and demand.

So uh, if there's more some you know whatever, more demand and lets than supply, then the price goes up. And so if I was an institution or hedge fund and I want to put a billion dollars into bitcoin, I have to buy a billion dollars, take a billion dollars off the market. I take supply off the market. I'm putting demand into the market. The prices should rise. But if there's a paper market for e t f s like we have now, there's no it's all it's all uh spot right, there's or there's no it's there's

no cash settled. I'm sorry, it's cash not physically settled. So all I'm doing is betting on the price of bitcoin. I'm not actually buying bitcoin the way I understand it. And so that means instead of putting my billion dollars and taking a billion dollars a bitcoin off the market and and messing with the supplied tomand metrics, now I can just put a billion dollars betting on that and it artificially, um, it gives them artificial bitcoin. It doesn't

affect the supplied demand metrics. But you don't necessarily agree with that. Give us your take on that. So yeah, I think that bitcoin is very unique in that it trades across all these exchanges around the world. Now, we we do have paper products, derivative products, et F products call it, you know, let's call them all paper products. Okay, uh,

these are bitcoin substitutes, not bitcoin, right. Bitcoin itself trades on coin based pro bitfin x, cracking, all these exchanges around the world, and these exchanges, these large, reputable exchanges, have longstanding reputations of being able to satisfy withdrawals no matter what the sizes, and for that reason, the price that we see on those exchanges is the real bitcoin price.

The fact that ETFs and futures all trade, and even bitcoin futures on exchanges like Finance, all those prices trade along with let's say, the coin base and cracking price. That means that the market of bitcoin is efficient across multitude of platforms. You can have small arbitrage and people and they're all there are strategies that are dedicated to arbitraging the price just between exchanges, because you can, you know, find ten dollar differences and go long and short and

arbitrage that trade. But the fact that these large bitcoin exchanges have satisfied withdrawals for years and years means that those prices are the real bitcoin price. And whatever. You know, and I respect Caitlin a lot, and she's a friend. What what she's saying is that they are all these paper products, and you can have you know, unlimited, theoretically

unlimited leverage to short bitcoin through these paper products. While I believe that, you know, that is in theory possible, it doesn't mean that what the price that we observe is not the real price. And that's what we're saying when price is truth here. The price does actor in everything that we know about bitcoin, including that there are paper products and people can go naked short through derivatives

that aren't you know, backed by any real bitcoin. But you know, on the exchanges, if people withdraw and the bitcoin is there at the price that's given to them on the screen, then that's what the bitcoin prices. Okay, So it sounds like maybe there's two different conversations going on here. So you're saying that whatever, whatever is happening through all these exchanges and paper markets, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, the price is the truth. The price summarizes everything that's

going on out there, which which obviously is obvious. Yes, that is the truth. And I get that. I think what she's saying, and not to put words in her mouth where I guess I'll say what what I have a concern of is, while the price maybe truth and actually I say the price is truth, I agree with you on that, that doesn't mean that the price isn't suppressed being the truth. So the price is the truth, but but the but the price could be manipulated because

now we've inflated the supply through fake paper market. So even though the price is the truth, couldn't it still be artificially suppressed? Of course, And you know that's the other side of it is I'm not even arguing that it can't be suppressed or that you know, it could be higher if it wasn't wasn't absent for these instruments. But that's not something that we can do anything about.

It's not something that we can change. Um, the financial powers that be if that's their strategy to suppress the price of bitcoin, or some you know, large whale trader that's their strategy to suppress the price of bitcoin over the long term, it's not something that we can change. And um, it's not I think, you know, we get a lot of background in contact from this from the gold price suppression scheme and the London bullion trade and and how that's worked over the last several decades and

that does energize some of this conversation. So I do want to acknowledge the work done by data and the discoveries that were made in how paper markets are used to suppress the gold price and have been for years, um, but gold has also risen in price despite that, Gold has taken a geopolitical you know, importance in the last fifteen years since the oh seven or eight financial prices

because of that. Russia China are you know, making huge geopolitical moves because of gold still despite whatever London price suppression scheme is going on, and so bitcoin will also charge on in the face. I just my point is that I'm not really concerned about whether or not the bitcoin prices being suppressed to these instruments, because it is a market that has a transparent settlement mechanism, very transparent,

the most transparent of all time. So we should celebrate that, and um, you know, it's it's just not a concern to me. Okay, I want to I want to dig into a couple of those things that you talked about there that I think are a couple of good points. The questions that I have while talking about that you're listening to the Mark MOA show. We're talking about bitcoin and the decentralized revolution. I'm in the studio with Nick body up Um. You can find them on Twitter at

time Value of btc. We're talking about bitcoin, the prices truth. We're talking about this this new E t F paper market and the possibility of its suppressing the price. We're gonna dig into more about that and some of the risks, UM. So don't go away. We were back, all right, welcome back. You're listening to the Markma Show. We're talking about bitcoin, and we're talking about this decentralized revolution, and today we're digging into a little bit deeper into the inner workings

of this financial system. I'm in the studio with Nick Bodia. You can find them on Twitter at time Value of btc um. He also writes a newsletter. He's an adjunct professor at usc UM and he also writes a newsletter that I've been reading and if you're interested in these topics, you should subscribe Nick. What's the name of that newsletter. It's called the Bitcoin Layer on sub Stack, The Bitcoin Layer on sub Stack. I recommend each of you to

go out and subscribe to that. It's so much information Uh, it's too cheap. Nick. I'm talking to you about that later. But anyway, UM, back to what we were talking about, which is, um, you know, the price being truth and the e t F market. Now to your point, Um, you you went in and kind of talked about the gold market, and you know, in the gold market, Uh, you know, estimates are there's potentially five hundred paper ounces

for everyone physical ounce that's being traded. Um. You know, massive manipulation with naked spoofing and naked shorting and things like that. You know, we've seen JP Morgan to pay out massive fines for things like that. Um, And so you know there's no doubt that that's that's being done. Now, I get that with bitcoin that even if you manipulate the price, it doesn't affect the network. It's still borderless,

permission list, censorship, resisting, immutable, blah blah blah. Um. But I would, in my opinion, maybe one of the greatest risks to bitcoin isn't that Probably the two biggest risk in my opinion are one that the nodes will become centralized if people don't run nodes, and then you know, coin bases and exchanges get too much power that's that's

probably one. But the second one is that the price could be so artificially manipulated that people would lose interest and then countries, let like take take action like Al Savador for example, If the price gets dropped in half when they've put their whole money into it, other countries gonna follow suit. So I think there is a risk there in my opinion. And so I see this possibility to manipulate the supply demand, manipulate the price could have

of an effect. And I know you said it kind of is what it is, um, but I guess it is what is. But do you see that as being a risk? I mean, do you see that if they build up this paper market enough that they could that they could use that to artificially suppress the price over long term. So another aspect of the whole prices truth thing is that, uh, the price tells a story through time.

So I look at I used price charts to tell me what's happening through time, and I look at Bitcoin's price chart, and I'd like to use realized value as realized market cap as one of my metrics that anchors how I'm looking at the price and the realized you know, realized value of bitcoin is um in the thirties, right, that's what that's the the m v r V. Yeah, so that's the ratio between the market value and the realized value. So right now we're you know, at about

one and a half. And what that means means is that word about you know, premium to what the realized value is. The realized value is a snapshot of where the bitcoin price was when bitcoin transaction transacted on the chain itself, not necessarily on exchanges, and so it is a slower moving um target of what bitcoins let's say fair value. I don't explicitly want to call it a fairy value, but it is a valuation metric. Realized price is a valuation metric that we can use to think

about bitcoin over a longer time horizon. Just like we use two hundred day or fifty week moving averages to smooth price through time, realized values a way to do that. So weird about one and a half times realized value today. So and for much of two thousand and twenty one, we've been approaching or touching up against these levels that are three plus, so a very extended valuation. When you start to get to you know, quote unquote bubble territory

for for for bitcoin. So in the last twelve months, what can we observe from the price we've we we observed that the price has gotten very hot at times and has cooled off to a point where it's still above this long term fundamental metric. So where's the price suppression? Let's be honest, it's not. To me, I don't observe it. You could say if the ratio of market value to realize value was less than one for a sustained period of time and was exhibiting some random behavior, but it's not.

Bitcoin has seen huge rallies which are very characteristic of bitcoin, followed by huge liquidations due to leverage. And we can actually see an interest in the futures market. Collapse means contracts that were naked long go away when the price dumps, and all very normal and healthy market activity. So where's

the price suppression? I don't think that it's an argument we have to get into when we're you know, looking about you know, and to Caitlin's point and credit, her job is as a banker to make sure she offers a product that can you know, she's a big advocate of proof of keys, which means I have a bitcoin product. I've signed this transaction to the Bitcoin Ledger where you can see I have the bitcoin for real, and so you can invest in my product with confidence. She's a banker,

that's what she's trying to do and market. So that's her talking her book that we have to, you know, have these products that have proof of keys and not fake potentially fake bitcoin, and good on her for trying to do that. It's not my concern. I'm you know, hold your own keys. If you're really interested in protecting your own bitcoin, and if you're not going to hold your own keys, demand that your custodians have proof of keys. And if you're not going to do that, then understand

the risks of potentially paper bitcoin being practionally reserved. Now, um, real quick, if you could give us the short version of what you mean by the real the market value versus the realized value. So the realized value is kind of the price point that people have received it at versus where the market value is today. So the majority of bitcoin holders are actually in profit is that something

like you're talking about? Yeah, So the majority of bitcoin holders are in profit based on where what we observe from bitcoin's blockchain, so separate in your mind that people trade on exchanges, but then they actually transact using bitcoin when they, for example, withdraw from an exchange. So those on chain bitcoin transactions, when those happen, we strike the price and measure bitcoins market capitalization on a realized basis,

meaning what the on chain activity reflects. And then we have a market price, which is where bitcoin trades on exchanges, and we can use the market price and the realized price in a ratio to give us context. It It doesn't mean that the ratio should be one. It doesn't mean that it can never get to five. That's it's

just like we use price to earnings ratio in equities. Right, we have the price, which is what the market trades, We have the earnings, which is the real number that the company publishes, and we have a ratio between them, and we can use that ratio to give us context and to make investment decisions sometimes or to guide us or to give us some story or say all about what's happening. So I'd like to use and I've written

about that at the Bitcoin Layer. The article was called the four year Cycle is dead, long live bitcoin, because UM, I think that the four year cycle is muting itself in a way, and we can observe that, observe that with ratios like m v r V. Yeah, I want to I want to dig into that article that you're at the four year cycle is dead. We'll talk about that, UM, because bitcoin moves on these four year having cycles. Every four years, the amount of bitcoin being produced on a

daily basis by the miners gets cut in half. And typically people have looked at these four year having cycles and then said, well, approximately eighteen months after you know, having, the market peaks, But like, really, we don't have enough data to back that app. So I want to dig into that with you. UM. In a minute, you're listening to Mark Moss talking about bitcoin in the studio with Nick Bodia. You can find them on Twitter at time. Value of BTC is also the author of the book

called Layered Money, which I've read and I love it. UM. I've referenced it quite a bit, So checked out that book. And he also writes a newsletter, the Bitcoin Layer dot sub stack dot com, so check those out as well. We've been talking about UM the price of bitcoin, UM, the market value of bitcoin versus the realized value of bitcoin, and then the potential for these paper bitcoins, these e

t F to potentially suppress for manipulated price. We're gonna come back in a minute and talk about the end of the four year cycle. Don't go away, hey, welcome back. You're listening to the Markma Show where we're talking about bitcoin and talking about the decentralized revolution each and every week, trying to bring you the most up to date information, the education and special guests to give you even more

insight into the market. Understanding bitcoin isn't easy. There's a lot of things going on, but it's worth the time. It's worth your time, it's worth your attention to put into it. I'm in the studio with Nick body Up. You can find him on Twitter at time Value of BTC. He's the author of the book called Layered Money, and he writes a awesome newsletter called the Bitcoin Layer at sub Stack. Check out those options. Um now, Nick Um,

you wrote an article recently. I subscribed to your newsletter and everybody else should as well if you care about these subjects, which you do. If you're listening, um, and you wrote one called the four Year cycle is dead and I and I said before the break, right, we know that bitcoin has these four year having cycles UM and people have been trying to guess where the top is in the market based off of where we are having cycle. You said the four year cycle is dead.

What does that mean? Yeah, so bitcoin has uh in two thousand and thirteen and two thousand and seventeen had these massive run ups and parabolic increases in price, and they correlated perfectly with uh lag. After the havings, which are when you know, every four years or so when bitcoins supply increase has um and you know, stays that

way for the next four years. And it does make sense that as bitcoin becomes more scarce UM and it's demand is still increasing on a on an exponential adoption curve, that we could have these supply shocks and massive run ups in price. And it's been the theory for a long time across bitcoin in general that havings lead to these parabolic increases in price. We would have another crash after that and you know, this big winter bear market. But what we saw in is Bitcoin's behavior change a

little bit, and it didn't. It didn't resemble over Bitcoin had a nice increase. It was a less than increase UM, but it had this long mini bear market during the summer and um, it just it didn't follow that exact four year pattern that it had been showing. So for that reason, I think the four your cycle is dead

doesn't mean bitcoin won't respond in price to havings anymore. Um. But the point of the article was to show that with much more sophisticated hedging tools, miners and market other market participants that respond to the supply shock of the having itself can spread out their risk over products and over time. The time aspect is really key here. It's not just that you can hedge using the options market

or the futures market. It's that there's a whole risk curve, an option curve, and you know, six to eighteen months out options and futures products that you can engage in to mitigate your future price risk if you are a physical user of bitcoin itself. And that sophistication of the hedging market reduces volatility around the having events even if measured on a four year period, and so having still

might have a huge effect on price. But this whole idea that every four years we're going to have a massive bubble and a massive crash might be over UM, but still expect you know, large volatility from bitcoin for the time being. Well, I think, um, you know, in the past, we've seen you know, huge draw downs, drawns, draw downs, and we've always expected I think most people have expected that as bitcoin continues to get bigger and bigger, that the volatility goes down, down, down, And so we've

gone from draw downs, apes and draw downs. In this year, we've got a draw down. I mean, it wasn't small, right, and so maybe that was the maybe that was the big crash that we were expecting a draw down was you know, like I said, that that's that's nothing small.

Another thing that I was thinking that when as you were talking and and you're talking about these these supply demand UM metrics kind of changing, and some of that based off of these products that are available for them to hedge their bets, which you know, a lot of these future markets actually got their start from farming, where they did have to hedge their bets, right, they didn't

want to have a bad croppy or something like that. UM. But also something that I've been noticing specifically in the miners that are mostly affected by this this this supply demand is that um, you know, just in the last several months, we've seen six or eight different mining companies go public and raise hundreds of millions of not billions of dollars, and so they're raising basically almost free money, free debt um and they're going into mining and their

goals are they don't they don't need to sell that bitcoin anymore. So they have the products to hedge on one side, but on the other side, they've also used the market and the low low rates to raise this debt where they don't have to sell the bitcoin either, and so that's got to dramatically change the markup. And then you have that that dynamic as well as the institutional players that have come in and you know, the Michael Sailor being the kind of main archetype there and

he's like, I'm never selling. And when you have these institutional players, you know, Warren Buffett's own Coca Cola for like sixty years, right, Like, they don't come in to just buy and sell real quickly. So I guess the makeup of the buyers, the change in the mining, and the products being available, like you said, probably all play into just change in the dynamics of that completely. Yeah, we we have a new market structure in than we did in it's just different players. The size is unlike

anything we saw five years ago. We have public companies.

You mentioned Sailor. He did a great long interview with Peter McCormick, who I know that you just went on UM and they talked about the I p o s of mining companies and it really, um it shifted my thinking about it a little bit, where uh, basically the importance of these publicly traded mining companies the prospect that they may never sell and the prospect that as public companies they're also financial engines and therefore can turn debt.

You know, they can print their own money in the form of stock, they can print dollars in the form of debt, and by mining equipment hoard bitcoin. It it does bring this whole new dynamic to the bitcoin market. UM where it's we're institutionalizing this idea of courting bitcoin and storing it as digital energy and um it's it's a very exciting time. And the four year cycle is that doesn't mean that we're not going to have bowl markets.

It just means that the nature of bitcoins price is going to it's not going to be the same as ever again, it's going to be some thing different. It might have been accelerated from four to three years, like you said, like three and a quarter years, because we had that draw down pretty early on in and um, we'll see how it behaves, you know, in the next having. And uh, you know that's why we're here watching bitcoin

every day. Yeah, Michael Sailor's I think it was Michael Taylor said all your models are broken, like every everything's changed, right, And uh, I love that. I constantly say that the world we're going into is not the same as the world that we're that that we've left behind. Um, you know,

we're we're in a in a different market cycle. We have the FED you know, driving policy, and um, different different stores of value like bitcoin coming out, and so anybody who's using you know, fifty sixty eight year old history to try to kind of project where we're going it's different and same with bitcoin, right, I mean, it's too new and things are changing too fast to constantly say, well,

it's going to happen exactly the same way. Um. I was just before the secondment, before you came on I was reading an article of Goldman Sachs him out and said that they expect gold to continue to steal the store of value portion from gold, and they think over the next five years you can capture fifty of the store value that gold has, and they put it up to a hundred thousand dollars in five years, which I think is very low in my opinion. But I don't have a crystal ball, so I'm not trying to put

any predictions out there. Um, do you have any predictions? Real quick? Before we got to wrap it up. I think bitcoin is headed to a million dollars over a decade decade time horizon, and that that's the way that I think about it. So hundred thousand is in the cards. So is half a million, So is a million. It's just it's a matter of time, and it's just going to take a long time. Got it, Got it all right? I think a million in ten years is good too. I'm in the studio with Nick Bodia at time Value

of BTC. Check out his newsletter Bitcoin The Bitcoin Layer on sub stack, his book Layered Money. Thanks for listening to the Mark Moss Show. Catch you next time.