The Mark Moss Show 2-14-24

we're talking about the decentralized revolution. And today we're talking about what happened with bitcoin, the launch of the ETF why did the price go down? And what the heck is going on now? More importantly, what should we be watching and doing as we watch all this play out? So let's jump right into this. It's not wasting time. We saw a buy the rumor, sell the news event. So what does that mean? A lot of times people

are trying to front run the market. So when they hear something a rumor like there could be a merger, there could acquisition. We hear this company is going to mister earnings report, they're going to exceed their earning reports. We hear a rumor, then people will start to move into that position. And what they'll hope is that if I get this rumor right, then I can get a

big payoff, and then I'll sell on the news. So I hear that we're gonna exceed expectations, I'm gonna start loading into the position, and as soon as the earnings report comes out, I'll sell. When the news drops, I sell. That's what that means. And so a lot of people were talking about this Bitcoin ETF and spin talk basically all we've heard about in the bitcoin space for a long time, and how all of this massive amount of buying that would be unlocked because of the ETF opening

up would unleash a massive boom, a giant candle. Some people call it a god candle. We'd see bitcoin go to the moon, if you will. When that happened, and I put out a video December fifth saying warning, warning the Bitcoin ETF. Warning. I think it's to buy the rumor, sell the news event. And the reason why I put that out was to let people know that don't get discouraged if you see it drop in price all of

a sudden, don't think it's a don't sell out. As a matter of fact, use that as a buying opportunity, and that's exactly what happened. We saw the buyer the room or sell the news event. It's been that way for the last couple of weeks, and now things seem to be taking off again. So are we in a fake out or are we at the start of a new boom. Let's dig into that, but before we do, let's go back to why I thought it was going to be a buyer the rum or, sell the news event.

All right, So what happens is bitcoin is considered a commodity. A commodity would be like oil would be, like uranium would be, like gold would be like wheat. A commodity is a lot different than a stock or an equity. So a lot of times you might hear people say, well, I don't know how to value bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't have any revenues, doesn't have any earnings, right, Okay, so they're thinking of it like an equity, like a stock. That's

when I'm evaluating a company. I'm looking at their earnings reports, I'm looking at their balance sheets, I'm looking at their financial statements, which some economist or analysts would say that they have like intrinsic value. There's value because they're producing value. I still think that's a little bit far fetched. I

believe all value is subjective. And so even though yes, they have a product, some intellectual property, yes they have profits, revenue, et cetera, the stock trades at a multiple of the earnings, and the multiple is still subjective. So even though there is intrinsic value because there is stuff there, the multiple that trades that is still subjective. Commodities, on the other hand, have none of that. It's why warm Buffet doesn't like it.

He's like, I don't buy gold because gold doesn't do anything, doesn't it doesn't. He likes seize candy, he likes Coca cola. He likes businesses that run very efficiently and produce lots of revenue, which is great, so do I. But he doesn't like commodity so they don't do anything. That's why he doesn't buy gold. So gold oil right by themselves, they don't really do anything. Now, if you want to understand the price movement of commodities, you have to understand

supply and demand. Very simple. Understand equities and stocks difficult understand commodities. Very simple. Supply and demand. Now all of the trillions of reasons that would go into supply and demand can get pretty pretty difficult. So let's just take oil for example. Do you think we use more oil or less oil in the future. Will there be more demand for oil in the future, And do you think we'll have more supply or less supply in the future. Right,

supply and demand. So let's just think about it. On the demand side, what would cause more demand, Well, more people in the world, more people buying more things, more shipping, more airplanes, more cars, more demand. I mean, we're not going to just die. Well, but if we have a lot of cars go over to batteries, EV vehicles, that could cut into some oil. Okay, but most of the oil isn't actually used for cars. It's actually used for shipping.

There's no replacement for that. But if we go into a global recession and people don't order as much stuff, then there's not as much shipping car. So you can understand there's intricacies as to what the supply demand metric would be. But if I zoom out, I think in the future we use more oil than less. On the supply side, we'll we have more oil or less Well, the world operate on a theory called peak energy. For a long time, the thought the world would run out

of oil. In two thousand and eight, that was proven wrong because we have technology. Technology changes those things, and so now we have more oil. However, the sort of existing globalist regime that we have today is very antagonistic to oil. So the Biden administration is trying to shut down oil. All through Europe to trying to shut down oil, so maybe they could crunch the supply more than the demand,

and so I'm pretty bullish on the price of oil. However, when you look back since nineteen seventy one, oil is more or less traded in about a sixty sixty to eighty dollars range, spikes above and below that, so we can apply it to the gold. But back to the point, we're looking at bitcoin. So if bitcoin is a commodity, I'm also looking at the supply demand metrics of that.

So why let's look at the supply side first, Well, with gold or with oil, if the price of gold or oil went three times, five times, ten times higher, more people, more resources would go towards getting more oil and gold out of the ground. So we say high prices are the cure for high prices. If the price of gold or oil spiked, more supply would come to the market, which would bring the price back down high prices.

The cure of your hig prices. Bitcoin is different. Bitcoin has a fixed supply cap, so you can't just go get more gold or oil out of the ground. So there is a fixed supply. So in the supply demand metric, we know that supply is capped. So will there be more supply in the future. No, there won't. So now we can only look at the demand side. So it makes actually much easier than it would be for another commodity.

So now we look at the demand side of things, and we'd ask ourselves whether it be more demand or less demand in the future. And some of you might be listening to one, why would there ever be demand? All it is is some speculative tulip mania. There's no real demand, Okay, but that's totally not true. There's a lot of utility for bitcoin, okay, Like what, Well, for one, it's a way that I can store my wealth in

a way that can't be debased. You see, if I hold my money in dollars or US treasuries or bonds, they print more of those things which erodes, which debases or steals my value through inflation. If I hold it in gold or I hold it in oil, there's other risks that could happen. So for example, they increase the supply of gold, they increase the supply of oil, or

the government seizes my goal. Right, So there's all types of things, and so it gives me a way to store value in a way that's not being debased, not being inflated away. That's number one. So do I think there's more demand for that in the future or less? Well, do you think governments print more money in the future or less? The answer is more money than you need

a way, so there'll be more demand for it. Another problem that we have today is censorship, and so governments around the world want to control your money capital controls. They want to keep your money locked in the country and let you know, you prove what you can do with that money. In a previous segment, I was talking about what's going on over in Ukraine right now in this new DA app and basically all your money and

really your life is in this app. And now if you don't respond to the draft, they can just shut off all your money. Okay, and that happens in North Korea. It happens in Lebanon, they shut the banks down, it happens in China, you can't get your money out of the country. It happens in all these countries. Authoritarian nations and nations going bankrupt always try to control the capital. Do you think there's more of that in the future or less? So if there's more of that, then I

need a way to protect myself. So I need something that's censorship resistant, so I can send a peer to peer without having to go through a bank or an intermediary. So I think there's more demand for that in the future, not less, all right, So that kind of sets that up. Now let's go back to the buy the rumor sell the news event. Now, what we were expecting is that these ETFs would come on board and lots more people would be able to buy bitcoin that weren't able to

buy it before. It would increase the demand for the asset. However, the reason why I warned that there was probably going to be a buy the room or sell the news event is because what most people expected is that as soon as the ETFs went live, a lot of money would go into these Bitcoin ETFs, which it did. As a matter of fact, Bitcoin become the second largest ETF in the world with only I think five days of trading,

so a lot of money did go in. But what most people had wrong is they thought that as soon as the money went in, than the ETF fund would go buy the bitcoin in the market and that would push the demand side up. We should then push the price up. But that's not what happened. And in that video I explained the reason why it wouldn't happen, and understand that is the key to understanding how we move

forward from here. I want to break that down for you so you can know exactly what to expect as we move forward with the price of bitcoin and if you should buy now or should you wait. If you're just tune in listening to the Mark Mass Show, we're talking about buy the rumor, sell the news and what comes next. You don't want to miss what comes next, so don't go away. I'll be right back, all right,

welcome back. If you just tune in, you listening to the Mark Mass Show, we're talking about the Bitcoin ETF,

buy the rumor and sell the news event. What happened? Okay, So as I was explaining before the break, the reason why I thought I was going to be buy the room or sell the news event, and I was correct, is because most people thought that as soon as the ETFs open and people have started putting funds into there to buy a bitcoin, they would go buy it on the market, which would cause the supply demand imbalance and push the price up. But as I explained, that's not

actually the way it works. You see, most of these ETFs have already bought the bitcoin. The bitcoin has been sitting in these seed accounts, or these these buffer accounts, if you will, and as soon as the orders come in, they'll just pull it from their other accounts, not from what's on the market. You see what they had in these tea accounts, and the buffer count had already been

taken off the market for some time. So over the last let's say, six nine months, as we've watched the price of bitcoin go from twenty five thousand, thirty thirty five, et cetera, up, it's because all this demand, these ETFs were buying all this bitcoin, putting in these seed accounts, as well as people like you and I were trying to front run by the rumor sell the news event, and so what I've thought would happen, and what did happen is that everyone thought that this money would go

to the ets that did, but they didn't go buy the bitcoin off the market. Instead they just moved it over from the buffer account. So that's the way it works. The ETFs cannot be buying and selling in the open market on a regular daily basis. The amount of buying and selling is too much for the amount of liquidity in the bitcoin market, so they drive the price up

and down. So they have to use these buffer seed accounts sort of to trade in the market, to know when to refill and so forth, and then the ETFs buy and sell directly out of that account. And so what I warned is that everyone was expecting this. A lot of people were trying to front run this, and so as soon as the news broke the ETFs opened, everyone would sell. And that's exactly what happened. We saw

the price of bitcoin dump and sell off. And what I warned everyone, as they said this is probably gonna happen, don't get fooled into selling. So a lot of people were like, this is it. It's going to thirty five thousand twenty five thousand, twenty thousand, I'm out, I'm gonna sell the top. I said, don't do that, because it's gonna be a small dip and you're gonna get You're gonna get faked out, and then the price will go back up. And that's exactly what we're seeing. The price

has gone back up. As a matter of fact. Let me just pull up my chart here. We can see that when the ETF got announced, the price dropped twenty percent, and since then, on January twenty third, it's now up sixteen percent, so it's almost back to where it was during that time. But let's take a look at what's happened in the ETF since then so you can understand where we're going in the future. All right, So let's look at a couple of things here. What are some

of the main points. So first of all, part of the reason why we also saw the price sell off is because there was no Bitcoin ETF, but there was something else called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and the Greyscale Bitcoin Trust had been holding a ton of bitcoin for a long time and they got converted over into an

ETF when all the other ETFs went live. But what happened is a lot of investors had their bitcoin locked up in this trust for a long time, and the trust has very exorbitant fees, and so as soon as it got opened up where they could get their bitcoin out and they had another choice to go into another ETF that had much lower fees, of course they wanted to do that. And so what happened is as much bitcoin was being purchased, a lot of it was being offset by the selling that was going on because of

the GBTC outflows at the same time. Now I talked about the GBDZ price of bitcoin, it was traded at, you know, a thirty five or forty percent discount to the NAB to the net asset value. So if you bought in at that point, you did really well. Not only did you get the appreciation on bitcoin, but you got the extra thirty five to forty percent as well.

But what happened is, as soon as like I said, black Rock and all these other ones started buying, gray Scale was offsetting that was selling at the same time. But it was a massive success. Like I said, within I think the first five days of trading, the Bitcoin ETF became the second largest ETF in the world. It overtook silver for that position. And what we saw some of this, some of this on chain data that we saw is that there were some increased on chain activity.

So the one beauty of bitcoin is that the network is open source, meaning we can see it all. It's an it's not private because we can see it, but it's anonymous. We don't know who it belongs to. And the ability or i should say the transparency, the ability to see through. The transparency that gives us the ability to see through it allows us to get data on assets that we've never had before, which is part of the reason why I think bitcoin's somewhat resistant to sort

of this manipulation and capture. This's happened in the gold industry with the gold ETFs because gold we don't have that transparency. We can't see that, but with bitcoin we can. But we could see is as soon as the ETF opened up, we could see coins, bitcoins that hadn't been moved in a long time started to move, and so we saw coins starting to sell. Into that event that caused that liquidity, a lot of old supply started entering

the market. Now to sort of break this down and put this into a little bit of into comparison to show you how much buying there was. Though, like I said, a lot of people thought that it was sort of a flop, and they said they thought it was a flop because it didn't bring the price of bitcoin up as high as a lot of people thought it was. As a matter of fact, it went down a little bit. But as I explained why that happened. But to show you just a little bit of how big it went up,

we can see that micro strategy. Michael Saylor's company have been the biggest holder of bitcoin. I think they have of one hundred and eighty thousand bitcoin at this point, and with only one month, we saw the bitcoin ETF hold almost just as much. I mean in a massive amount of buying at one time. We can see the ETF flows in dollar terms were total spot bitcoin. We can see that, yeah, billions of dollars. We saw nine thousand bitcoin per day were being added. Now back to

supply and demand. Just like oil is brought from the ground, just like just like gold is mine from the ground, you have to get equipment, you have to use energy, you have to dig in the ground to get gold out. Also with bitcoin mining, you have to get a computer, you have to plug it into a network, and you have to spend time, effort, and energy in order to solve complex problems in order to get bitcoin out of the ground. All right, I want to get super deep

into that. What happens is there's about nine hundred bitcoin per day that get unlocked and released into the into the world. Now, what happens is the supply of bitcoin will is cap there will never be more than twenty one million. And what happens is about nine hundred per day being released until we get to twenty one million and there will be no more, which is over one hundred years from now. Every four years, the amount of bitcoin being released gets cut in half. It's known as

the having event. The having event is coming up in about two and a half months from now, roughly, and at that point, the new supply of bitcoin will get cut in half. And right now, there's about nine hundred per day being released, and the bitcoin ETFs are buying about nine thousand. Supply and demand. If they're buying nine thousand but there's only nine hundred, what do you think happens to the price? Now, let's go through the having.

The having will happen sometime early April potentially, we don't know exact date based off of the blocks. But let's just say that the bitcoin ETF demand stays at nine thousand, and the supply goes from nine hundred to half of that to four point fifteen. Then what happens in the price? What happens when the GBTC Trust runs out of bitcoin to sell after all that moves, and then the supply gets cut in half. Do you understand the supply demand

imbalance that can happen? Now at this point, we can see that there's ten times more bitcoin being a common accumulating than what's being released, but after the having it goes to twenty times. It's a big difference. At this point, we can see the leading ETFs are Grayscale, Blackrock, and Fidelity. They're leading the leading the race with the assets under management. Grayscale is still sort of leading it just because they

had the biggest They had the biggest lead. Looks like the I Shares Bitcoin Trust has about one hundred and thirty seven billion our total volume six point seven, Fidelity five point five, Kathy Woods Arc down at one point eight. The rest are all pretty much down below that. If you're just tuning in listening to the Mark mass Show, talking about what happened with the bitcoin ETFs, why was the buyer, the rumor sell of the news event and what comes next? I'll be back with this interesting turn

of events in a very quick minute. Don't go away right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. We're talking about bitcoin ETF and why was the buy, the rumor sell, the news event and what comes next? Now, one interesting turn of events that I really love to see is innovation. I love to see competition. Competition always leads to better products, better service, better prices for you and I the consumer.

One of the things I talked about earlier was how Bitcoin's open network, the transparency and the open network. It's it's not private because we can see it, but it's anonymous. And that anonymous open network allows us to see the data of where the bitcoin is, what addresses they're in, how long it's been since they've moved, and so forth, and that allows us to not have to trust, but we can verify. We can verify how many bitcoin are there.

And I talked about why I think it's gonna be much more resistant to manipulation than we've seen with the gold ETFs and so forth. And so I said, there's about estimated between one to five hundred paper ounces of gold for every one physical ounce of gold. If your statistical data shows one to five hundred, that means you basically don't know anything. That's way too big of a range. And it's sort of resistant, not only because of the you know, we're not able to see the data of gold,

but more importantly, you can't just take delivery. You have one hundred billion dollars worth of gold, How do you even do that? Right? They don't even have it in the vaults? How are they even transported to? Where would you even store it? Right? But with bitcoin, with a push of a button, I can instantly take delivery of it and it costs me zero dollars to take delivery of it and to secure it and store it. You have a billion dollars of gold, you have to build

an army to protect that a billion dollars. A bitcoin, no one even needs to know you have it, and it can be cryptographically secured and that way, and so I think that also helps push back against what the ETF can do or like what's happened with gold ETFs, because I can instantly just take delivery of it. Now, because of the open anonymous nature of it, we should be able to somehow addit the network. And a lot of people would say that with these gold ETFs, you

don't know if the ETF actually has the gold. What I suspect is that when push comes to shove a lot of people, we know based off the data, a lot of people are gonna think they have gold and they don't. They're gonna end up either hopefully they're gonna get cashed out and at least get some VA currency, or they end up with nothing. And so the big question is do these ETFs really have the gold they say they have? And then with the bitcoin ETFs, do

the bitcoin ETFs really have the bitcoin they say they have. Well, one of the ETFs, bit wise, they decided to publish their on chain address to increase transparency. So that basically means that they said they shared their public address, so anyone can log onto the address and see that the amount of bitcoin they have matches what they show in the ETF. Now, what I love about this is, like

I said back to this competition. What I really hope is that there will be demand for that and consumers will flock to that because of that feature, and then we'll start to see more ETF start to adopt that. Intrue competitive fashion would be really good. That's one way that we can hopefully keep it from getting manipulated like we've seen with gold. Now, what is next for bitcoin?

Let's talk about this. So not only do we have supply fixed Chapter twenty one million, not only do we have long term demand meaning I think governments print more money in the future. I think government can get more authoritary in the future. We also have this they have being coming down where it cuts the supply. We have institutional demand picking up now all these ETFs. Seventy two percent of financial advisors said that they would recommend bitcoin

once there's an ETF approved. We have the Grays Bitcoin Trust that's sort of been dwindling and emptying out. Last year we had FTX, you know, blow up, and also people thought they were buying bitcoin there they weren't, so that was also manipulating the price. So a lot of that stuff is gone. So what's next for bitcoin. We also know that the amount of bitcoin on exchanges is lower than at any previous HAVING time. So again we're almost at the HAVING, So there's a lot of dynamics

that are different from this time. So where does the price go when we know that typically the price of bitcoin peaks eighteen months after the HAVING date. Now we've only had four having Well we're on our fourth halving cycle right now, so it's not like total empirical evidence. It's kind of a small sample size. However, about eighteen months after the having we see the peak of bitcoin.

So where was it last time? It peaked in November of twenty twenty one, which was eighteen months after the last HAVING, which saw it peak at about seventy thousand dollars. It was a lot lower than most people had expected, including myself. We thought it should have been somewhere around one hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Some of the reasons why potentially that it ended up less than that was one.

We had the whole Tara Luna FTX and GBTC shenanigans going down, all that fraud Celsius Tara Luna, all that bitcoin was manipulated and stolen. That happened, and at the same time we saw the Federal Reserve about face on the interest rates and start raising rates, and so maybe those couple of things caused it to be a little bit lower than it could have been, or maybe should

have been. We don't really know, but we do know that we're coming up into the having and about, like I said, eighteen months after we see that price go up. We do know that there's less bitcoin on exchanges, and the reason why that's important to understand is that the bitcoin exchange is what we would consider liquid. So if it's sitting on exchange, somebody probably wants to trade with it, trade it for another all coin, sell it for cash

when it goes up, something like that. If it's in cold storage, it's not as accessible, so typically it's there for a longer term. And what we can see is that the exchange balances have just been declining since the last HAVING, They've been rapidly declining. I'm looking at chart, but I can't show you. So there's that. In addition, we also have other factors. So in the last HAVING cycle,

we had factors working against us. So again we had the FTX, we had the Celsius, we had the Terra Luna, and we had the Fed pivot and start tightening the monetary cycle. Now at the HAVING we're seeing the opposite. So now we've cleared out the FTX, we've cleared out the TERROR, and we've cleared out the Celsius. We don't really have any of that garbage overhanging right now. The GBTC is basically cleared out, or it's getting there orderly

in a way. But instead of the FED pivoting and go into a very tight hawkish stance, the Fed's actually doing the opposite Right now. Now the FED is moving into an easing stance. They're looking to start lowering rates here sometime in the next couple of months. We have and if to remember, bitcoin is not just a US

based asset, it's a global asset. We have right now China is melting down and the Chinese government is shoving money into the economy as fast as they can, and the people of China that are getting that money are trying to get out of the country as fast they can. And one of the best ways they can get money out of the country is to buy bitcoin. Sure, they can go to Vancouver or Seattle and buy homes. That's

not easy. Buying bitcoin is very quick and easy. They can buy gold, but what do they do with the gold? It's still stuck in China. And so we have these playing out. We have currencies around the world Argentina, Venezuela, Lebanon, Turkey. The currencies are melting down. People have to get out of that currency as fasts they can. If they can get dollars, then they'll certainly do that. They'll get whatever

they get their hands on, typically not very much. Other than that, they don't have money options, and so bitcoin becomes a good option for them. So the entire sort of global outlook just looks a lot different at this point. Fiscal policies changing. We had Drome power of the Filer Reserve was just on sixty minutes a couple of days ago, and you talked about how the fiscal situation, this is

the amount of money the government spending is unsustainable. He said that we're borrowing from future generations, which of course we've been saying for years. So you take all of us into consideration, and then you take into consideration that we have the ETF there. I believe that the ETF is going to continue to build bigger and bigger and bigger, demand more demand over the long term, which will continue to buy Remember, like I said, seventy two percent of

financial advisors said they would recommend to buy bitcoin. But that doesn't happen overnight. This is going to take months and years to play out. As a matter of fact, we can see when gold was first turned into an ETF, it was November of two thousand and four. The price of gold didn't peak until June of twenty twelve, so from that was eight years from the time the ETF was announced. For eight years, gold was on a major bull run once those ETFs were approved. So I think

that's more about what I would expect with bitcoin. I expect another strong eight years or potentially even longer. But where could the price end up. If you're just tuning in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, we're talking about the Bitcoin ETF, buy the rumor, sell the news event, what's coming up next? And after a very short break, I'm gonna tell you where I think the price ends up. You don't want to miss it, don't go away. I'll

be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, We're talking about the bitcoin ETFs and where they buy the rumor sell the news event. Well, we know in hindsight now they were. I predicted it December fifth. I put out a video on my main YouTube channel. Go watch it. If you want the full details on what happened, just search Mark Moss Bitcoin ETF you'll find it. But the question that's probably the top of your mind now is

where do we go from here? Now this is a full disclaimer. I am not your financial advisor. I am not telling you to go buy bitcoin. Most of you probably shouldn't buy bitcoin. Actually everyone should know on bitcoin, but I'm not sure financial advisor. I'm not telling you to buy and I'm going to do my best to give you some frameworks as to where I think it could go. But I'm just gonna let you know in advance that my crystal ball is pretty fuzzy. It's not

super clear here. All right, So we know that bitcoin moves on these four year cycles. We know that the four year cycle is known as the having event, which cuts the supply, and a half happens in less than ninety days, about sixty eight days from now, So we know that happens. We know that bitcoin peaks typically eighteen months after that date, so we have about a year and a half in front of us. Then we have to look at the supply demand characteristics of that and

other underlying things. So remember, as I talked about the last cycle, it got cut short because the Fed and the central banks went into a tightening set. They started sucking the money, sucking the liquidity out of the system. But that's not here right now. All that's being switched over, and now we're starting to ease, We're starting to inject liquidity back in the system. The FED said they would start lowering rates here in the next couple of months.

Central banks around the world, in Japan, the ECB, they're already easying. We got China shoveling money under their system as fast as they possibly can. And at the same time, in the US, the fiscal situation, which is the US treasury, the government is spending money like a drug con sailor. They cannot spend money fast enough, and we didn't see

that before. So not only do we have this having cycle, which is just natural cycle which sort of plays off business cycles and credit cycles, but at the same time, the entire global liquidity went from it It wasn't a tightening cycle before, and now we're moving into an easing cycle, so it's very bullish. On the other hand, a lot of the problems that we had, the GBTC, the FTX, the terror, Luna, the Celsius that really held bitcoin and cryptocre,

he's in general down. They're all gone, so we don't have those big things in front of us, So that's bullish as well. Another thing we have, unfortunately, is we continue to have a rise of authoritarianism. I am afraid that if Europe, it looks like Europe probably first and maybe even the US could get somewhat Dracconian with some rules and regulations they put on bitcoin, specifically around like

self ownership, that could potentially slow it down. But I think people would still be buying it in the ETFs. They're not going to make the ETFs legal. That's there's like a zero point zero, zero zero one chance that that happens. So I guess people still buy in the ETF, so I'm not super worried about that, And then I would say that I think the ETF demand is going to be massive again. Seventy two percent of advisers said they wouldcommend bitcoin once there's an ETF and there is in.

What I saw today was a report showing how fund managers. So most people, a good majority of people don't manage their own money, which, by the way, you should manage your own money. But most people aren't managing their own money, and they're allowing their fund administrators either you know, whoever runs their four oh one k's mutual funds, et cetera, to build these portfolios and manage them for them. And so what we saw today is a lot of these

funds are starting to already put bitcoin in. So what that means is that we're going to see millions and millions, tens of millions of people owning bitcoin and not even

knowing it. I write an investment newsletter called the Tactical Asset Report, where I every single month, I write a deep research report showing you what I think is happening in the market and what I'm buying or selling at that time based off of that information, and I get people that come in new students every day into the newsletter.

And the first thing that we want to do is we want to look at all the assets that we have, and we want to look at what buckets or what pillars of our portfolio they're in, so we can build the best portfolio. And most people don't even know what they have because it's all just like in a four oh one K. They don't even know what's in there. And so all of those people will be buying bitcoin without knowing they're buying bitcoin. Their fund administrators, their advisors

will be buying it for them. And that's why I think these ETFs have this long road in front of it, sort of like the gold ETF had an eight year run in front of it, I think we see the bitcoin ETF have probably a lot longer than an eight year run. As a matter of fact, it ran for eight years before it pulled back. And of course now goal is back above that previous high, and so I

think the same thing happens with bitcoin. So when you add all those things up, I'm pretty bullish on what happens over the next eighteen months with the price to bitcoin, or about two years at this point. So what does the crystal ball have to say about the pricing? Well, again, my crystal ball is pretty fuzzy. But if we look at some charts and some grafts and look at some

Fibonacci lines. We look at some analyst experts, we see that the predictions are sort of all over the board, and they're ranging typically between one hundred thousand to two hundred and fifty thousand. That's where a lot of people project that we could be at the next having cycle, which is about about two years from now. Now, again, that's a pretty wide range, and so it's kind of statistically irrelevant. It's such a big range. What do I think.

I think that one hundred should be pretty doable, which is more than one hundred percent from here. I think one hundred and fifty depending on how hard the Federal reserve, the central banks of the rest of the world China, depending on how hard they go into liquidy. We could even overshoot that number, but it's hard to say. But I think one hundred is a pretty conservative number, with maybe up to one hundred and fifty that's probably where i'd put it. I think two fifty is probably a

little bit aggressive. I think when I look at the data, each cycle is lower than the last, so it looks like each one is down. Each new high is about thirty percent of the previous one, so the first one had gone up sixteen thousand percent from the having to the peak was up sixteen thousand percent, the second one was up five four hundred percent, the third one was up twelve hundred percent, and the fourth one was up

four hundred and forty percent. So if we if we continue that trend, it puts it at about one point fifty, which is a which is a two hundred percent from where we're at right now. I don't see any other asset in the world that would go up that much, So it's still a pretty good deal. But I don't know, what do you think about that? Now? What could go wrong with this? Well, there's lots of things that can go wrong with it. One of the biggest things that

we could have would be a massive liquidity event. So what does that mean? Like a banking crisis. So we have lots of pinpricks that are out there. We know, for example, there's about two point nine trillion dollars of commercial real estate mortgage backed bonds that could go bankrupt, could crash the regional banking system, could crash the entire banking system, sort of like a two thousand and eight event.

Then we saw when the bank when when the banks collapsed then we saw the S and P five hundred sell off by you know, over fifty percent. If something like that happened, then the price of bitcoin is going to drop as well. Gold dropped twenty five percent when SMP sold off fifty percent. Maybe there's another pandemic. Right during the pandemic, we saw the price of bitcoin plunge big time as everything did. The S and P five hundred,

gold and bitcoin they all plunged as well. So if we get another big event like two thousand and eight like we saw in the pandemic, then certainly we could see that completely derail things. That's not my base case. What else could happen? Well, I suppose the central banks could decide that they would rather fight inflation and not

prop up their own governments. I don't see that as my base case either, because if they don't promp up their governments and their governments collapse, then what's the point of saving their currency. So I think governments will choose inflation over deflation every single day. So that's not my base case. So my base case is probably, like I said, either some sort of either some big event causing a massive liquidity crisis could be you know, a war, escalation,

nuclear war, heaven forbid. Please, I'm not saying that I don't want that, you know, another pandemic, which again I certainly do not want, or some other cascade event where the banks start to collapse and the government doesn't step in to save that, which again is not my base case. Any one of those potentials, though, could derail all of this. So there is no guarantee. There is no thing that's certain, and because of that, I certainly would never put one

hundred percent of my money into this. Now if I had five hundred bucks, I guess yolo right. But if you have enough money, you do not want to put everything in because the future is not certain. Who knows what can happen, So put a reasonable amount, whatever that is for you. I think minimum two and a half percent of your investable net worth. If you understand it, you like it a little bit more, you can go

up to five percent, ten percent. If you're a psychopath, like a lot of bitcoinners, I know, it might be thirty forty fifty percent, and I'll let you kind of figure out what works best for you. I'd love to hear what you have to say, though. Hit me up on social media. Let me know that you're listening. You're listening to the Mark Moss Show talking about the intersection

of politics, finance, and technology. Today we're talking about the financial system and the technology of bitcoin, and that's what I got. Thanks so much for listening. Until next time.