Is bitcoin really going to a million or ten million? Well, actually, I'm going to tell you why. I think that's actually bearished. Now, this isn't some hypothetical. I'm going to show you how five times over the last three hundred years, this exact process has played out. I'm here in Bitcoin Mina. This is the capital of capitol. I'm talking about Abu Dhabi.
I'm about to go on this stage. I'm gonna show you exactly where we're at right now and the blueprint of how we progress through twenty thirty, twenty forty, and ultimately twenty fifty. If you want to know exactly where we're at and how to navigate this, stick with me as we go up on stage and break it down. Bitcoin was always coming for everybody. This is not just
a new technology. This is a revolution. There is no end to the monetary debasement that's coming that would put bitcoin at a twenty one trillion market gap one million dollars per bitcoin. At that point, the dollar doesn't buy anything. No, that's absolutely not right. And this is where bitcoin evolves beyond just a financial asset. You no longer measure your wealth in fiat. You measure your wealth in bitcoin, and at this point it's bitcoin to about four hundred million
dollars per bitcoin. Are you going to take advantage and help lead this revolution or a you're just going to watch it pass by? Please join me and welcoming. All right now, in order to understand where we're going, let's just jump and look into the future for us. Can Let's imagine that we're in the year twenty fifty. Bitcoin isn't priced in dollars, euros, in or duran anymore, because
at this point these currencies don't matter. Global trade is now happening in Satoshi's Sovereign nations are now settling in bitcoin, and your wealth is denominating in bitcoin. At this time, one bitcoin equals one bitcoin and the world has changed.
This isn't some wild fantasy, This isn't some speculation. What I'm going to break down for you right now is I'm going to show you how this same historical pattern has happened five times over the last three hundred years, and it's a repeatable pattern, a predictable pattern that gives us a blueprint to follow along what I call a
quantum leap. Now, this is a point when technology changes the rules of the game It changes the way that we work, interact, and live in the world, and the rules change, the balance of power is shifted forever, and the way that we view the world we interact in the world has changed. Now, as I said, this happens on a fifty year time frame, since we had the birth of the Industrial revolution in the mid seventeen hundreds. Each one of these represents a time when the entire
world completely changes, what I'm calling a quantum shift. We had the Industrial Revolution. About fifty years later, we had steam engines and railways. About fifty years later, we had steel heavy equipment. We had electricity. About fifty years later, we had automobiles, oil, oil fuels, mass production. About fifty years later, we had the birth of the microprocess, of which brought birth to the telecom, the personal computer, and
the Internet. Now, one thing to keep in mind with this is that this is not about one new technology. This is about a cluster of technologies that come together to give us a new set of building blocks to build things that we can't even imagine today. Humans are no good to imagine in the future because all we can do is imagine a better version of what we have now. We're going into what I'm calling the sixth Revolution. This is the sixth time we've seen this cycle repeat
and what I'm calling the decentralized revolution. Now, it's not just that the world completely changes from the technology, which of course it does, but it drives all financial markets. The only place to invest for the last fifty years has been the Internet and personal computers and telecommon. Before that, it was Ford and GM and GM. Before that, it
was oil and it was steel. Each one of these cycles represents a new set of generational wealth, and each one of us right now are sitting at this point where we have the ability to create generational wealth as this cycle unfolds. Now, as I said this, each one of these cycles that's happened five times now we're on the six has a repeatable process and broken down into four stages. Now, the first stage is what we call
the eruption phase. Now we have the Big Bang, which is where the new invention came and there's a lot of excitement about it, and there's some people who like to tinker, the nerds maybe they like to play with it, and we have this eruption that happens in this Big Bang. Now, it's worth noting that this is because the previous fifty year cycle is starting to die out and we have a new bang, the big bang that takes off. Now this is the eruption or the emergence of this fifty
year cycle. The second phase. I've went ahead and put a green line here shows sort of where I believe we are right now, which is the frenzy phase. Now this is about speculation in this phase. This is the emergence of this cycle. Then we go to phase three, which is the synergy phase. This is wherely where we start to see integration of these new technologies into society. And then finally we have the fourth phase, which is maturity. This is where the global standardization happens and the next
great surge begins. So now you have sort of like a little bit of a framework of what I'm talking about. And the old system that we have dying are these centralized systems. And so the last cycle, which we talked about telecom, personal computers, Internet has started to die. The Internet has lots of problems, lots of centralization, and so now we have a decentralized wave that's starting to take off, giving us a new set of protocols for money, for
communication and other things like that. And this is why I'm calling it the decentralized Revolution. Now, each of these four phases, as I said, are very predictable, and we can map out this decentralized revolution, and we can overlay bitcoin perfectly to this. So it gives us a perfect example, and we'll break down exactly where we'll be in twenty fifty. As I framed in the beginning, this is not some hypothetical fantasy that, of course we're all dreaming and believing in.
But instead history shows us this is what the reality will be. All right. Now, what's one more thing I want to overlay is it also overlays perfectly with money. If you go back through thousands of years of monetary history, you'll understand that money, as we know it is both evolutionary and emergent, So it goes through four phases. Anybody read Safety's book The Bitcoin Standard, you might understand some
of this. So we've had lots of forms of money from feathers, rocks, and seashells, and eventually gold emerged and it goes from a collectible phase. Oh look at this cool rock, Look at this cool feather, this cool seashell let's collect it. Now some things, obviously not all of them. Some collectibles could emerge, could evolve to the next stage,
which becomes of store of value. Now, in this store of value phase, we see this today, lots of wealthy people store their value in collectibles, fine art, old cars, paintings, Pokemon cards, baseball cards, whatever that may be. Now, if some of these store value assets have the right qualities most of them don't to be money, then it could potentially emerged evolve to the final the next day of medium exchange. Now it has to be portable, divisible, durable, recognizable,
et cetera. A mona Lisa could not make a medium exchange because of course you can't divide it. A cow could be divided, but it's not fungible parts for parts. So if we have the right attributes, we can go to the medium xchange and then ultimately, if we've met all of these levels, we could go to the unit of account. So this overlays perfectly with technology. So we're witnessing all of this at one time. So let's just break down. Let's jump into the pass real quick. Let's
just recap where rap phase one, which is eruption. This is from twenty ten to twenty twenty. We're going to go pretty quick through this. So in this phase again, this really is represented by retail adoption. Right in this first phase, it's defined by the same challenges though as every other one of these revolutions in history, which is the technology is limited by scalability. Right when automobiles were introduced, for example, within three years, there's two hundred and fifty manufacturers,
but they couldn't scale. There was no roads, gas stations, no tires. The Internet was out for over twenty years. By the year two thousand, after the dot com boom, less than ten percent of people had bought anything online because the Internet was too slow and it couldn't scale. The same thing we saw with bitcoin. It was hampered with scaling solutions, which is exactly what's supposed to happen in the first phase, which led to other things like
alt coins. But we'll get back to that in a second. Now, this overlaps perfectly with money. So in this first phase ten twenty ten to twenty twenty, bitcoin is in this collectible phase. Now we can see some illustrations of this. We had a famous Laslo spending ten thousand bitcoin on a pizza back in twenty ten. So this bitcoin, this collectible, what is it? Let's see what we can do with it? Would anybody trade me one collectible for another? How about
some pizzas it was a groundbreaking experiment. Of course it was a very expensive pizza looking back at it. But remember each one of these cycles is held back by scaling, and so in this scaling, then we had this experimentation, this alt coin boom. Well, let's make ones that are faster and cheaper and more private. But this is one piece that's always their present. It was a necessary step.
Now I believe that this collectible phase really headed up in twenty twenty, and we can see where this really took a blowoff top with NFTs, the ultimate collectible. The NFT market exploded in twenty twenty, growing three hundred percent over two hundred and fifty million dollars in transactions. Ninety seven percent of walls were using them, but by twenty twenty one it got to forty one billion. As you can see, by twenty twenty two it completely fell off.
A clip trading volume dropped ninety seven percent, and today reports are that ninety nine percent of NFT projects are dead. So the collectible phase was a necessary step, but it's not the future. Now we can see that going into phase two, which is then the store of value phase.
The seeds were already planted early on. We saw really back in twenty thirteen, venture capital fund Addison Horowitz already started to invest into bitcoin startups, trying to help build that next stage we saw twenty seventeen, CBE and CME started doing futures. That was really the first time we started seeing institutional adoption coming in for the store value. Twenty eighteen, fight Deli started planting the seeds to get other institutions in as well, and so that's where it phased.
Now looking at some of the prices, we can see in twenty ten, these on the left are store of value assets. So these are assets that we store a wealth in. Obviously real estate, gold, collectibles, equities, real estate. Now gold was only a five trillion dollar asset in twenty ten. By twenty twenty it was eleven and a
half trillion. Real estate was about one hundred and eighty trillion by twenty twenty three hundred twenty six trillion, growing out of six percent arr Now, during this time, all store of value assets went up by about eight percent. Arr Bitcoin went up four four hundred and twenty six percent. Amazing time to be in bitcoin. During that time, we can see that bitcoin went from about thirty cents for a bitcoin to twenty eight thousand dollars, again an ar
are of forty four twenty six percent. Now during this time, Bitcoin by twenty twenty took about zero percent of store value assets. Not even a blip, not even a drop in the bucket. Okay, now let's get into some of this future. Okay. Now, Phase two is what we call the frenzy phase, and this is where we're at today. Right, this is going to be unlike anything we've ever seen,
and no matter how bullish you are, you're not bullish enough. Now, this is where bitcoin evolves from the collectible phase and cements itself as the premiere store values. We're in this institutional frenzy phase and we're starting to see institutional adoption come in. And now of course here we are talking about sovereign adoption that both happen in this phase. Now, this maps again in the evolution of money, and we'll complete the store value phase. But this is where we're
at today now. Again, not all collectibles make it to this next level, but bitcoin will. I do want to point out real quick for everybody who thinks that they're too late, that maybe they're missed it. Using an S curve dynamic is how we'll look at technology adoption. Now. One way we can look at this S curve is that the time it takes to go from zero to ten percent is the time it takes to go from ten to ninety percent. And the reason why I want to show you this is because it illustrates that the
size of this move we're going into now is much larger. Sure, today bitcoin is about a two trillion dollar US dollar market cap. Hundreds of billions of dollars have gone into it, and now we're about to see trillions of dollars come into it. The size and speed of the mood is much bigger. So you haven't missed anything. It's just getting started. Now.
At this point, we can see this total store of ias that you can see bitcoing down here on the bottom right, sitting today at about two trillion, and it's still just a little blip on the road right here, a drop in the bucket. Now, how much bigger is it going to get? Well, I got a bunch more smart charts to show you she don't worry. But really, right now this is the frenzy, This is the institutional phase. We can see that right now today about sixty companies
have already started adopting bitcoin on their balance sheet. And this is happening every day we see new announcements of this happening. This chart, the big chart here shows the real institutional adoption. We have micro Strategy adding about a billion dollars a week. I just saw before I went on stage. Riot just added about half a billion dollars of debt to buy bitcoin. We have our Marathon doing
a billion dollars. And right now this is showing us that about thirteen and a half percent of all bitcoin is now being held by institutions. Of course, it is bitcoin was always coming for everybody, and this is part of the second stage. Now it's not just institutions, it's also sovereign adoption. We have sovereign fomo, We have a Force El Salvador sort of with this first mover advantage.
Brazil just introducing bills to build a strategic reserve. Of course, the United States has their bitcoin bill going through now. Per poly Market, I looked earlier. Today it's about a twenty five five percent chance of going through. I think that's way too low. I think it's going to be much higher now. History shows us what happens when sovereigns start competing a small business owner, are you buried in all types of work keeping you from the real thing
that makes you money? Well that's where just Works comes in. They're the all in one platform that supports small business growth. You can get all their tools that help with benefits like payroll and HR and compliance with transparent pricing. Now they help you hire top talent internationally, internew markets, quickly scale international operations without the workload and forevery how do I do it? Question? You can reach out to their expert staff from sole proprietor or a team of twenty.
Just Works empowers all kinds of small businesses with real human support. So visit justworks dot com slash podcast to join the thousands of small businesses that trust just Works to take care of payroll, benefits, compliance and more. Again that's Just Works slash podcast. History shows us a lot of things. So for example, in the eighteen hundreds, the entire world decided to go to a gold standard. Some parts of the world, like China, didn't want of the
gold standard. They had silver. They wanted to stay with silver, and they lost their position as a world leader. We saw the nineteen fifties the race for space, we saw the race for nuclear weapons. When nations start competing, things really take off. So we have a precedent for where this is going. But why why are the institutions foaming in racing into a new asset. Well, because they see what we all should see. They see that there is no end to the monetary debasement that's coming, and they're
all looking for a way to protect themselves. What we have right here is that we can see the bottom right is the US Federal Reserves balance sheet, which has been expanding by thirteen percent a year over the last four years. We can see the money supply has been averaging over eight and a half percent over the last four years, and there's no end in sight. How do we know there's no in insight? Well, besides the fact that they're in a debt based monetary system that always
has to grow. The government actually tells us that we can look at the CBO Congressional Budget Office and we can see that they are projecting through twenty fifty four the next thirty years for us, and they show us that the deficit spending is going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. They show us that the debt levels are going to go up like a hockey stick. And they also show us that population growth on the top right is going to plummet as the GDP goes down.
At the same time population growth going down, GDP going down means debt levels go up. Now, they also show us the budget through twenty fifty four, thirty years from now, and there's no recession in sight. They don't expect any dip in the revenue coming in. So where does all this come from? Money printing? Now? Of course this is what they tell us for the next thirty years. When you look at the population decline and the GDP decline,
I think this is way understated. But for the purpose of what we're doing, we're going to use these numbers and project it out into the future. So in this phase from twenty twenty to twenty thirty, using the numbers that we have from the last four to five years, we can project out the money supply growth at eight percent, continuing bonds going up five percent, real estate and equities, which are basically perfect proxies for monetary debasement, going up
at eight percent. Bitcoin maybe averaging finishing the decade at about a fifty three percent. We're at about sixty percent right now. That would put bitcoin at a twenty one trillion market cap one million dollars per bitcoin in the next five years or a ten x from right here. Now, this may sound like a big number, but if we look at it, bitcoin is only capturing one point five
percent of total store value asset, is the point. Now, if it was able to get five percent, which might be way more reasonable, that puts bitcoin at a three million dollar price per bitcoin. So I believe one million is extremely bearish and not bullish at all. Now, let's just keep going. If we look at it as a percentage of store value assets, just so you can visually see it a little bit better, you can see that now bitcoin is about on par with gold. Maybe it's overtaken,
it's flipped gold by this time. Now. It's one point that I want to bring out right here real quickly. Is a lot of people think that for bitcoin to be worth one million or five million or twenty million. Well, the dollar's worthless right at that point, the dollar doesn't buy anything. No, that's absolutely not right. You see, bitcoin is disrupting other assets. I have a venture fund called
the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. As a venture investor, we look at a disruptive technology, we look at the size of the markets it's disrupting, and then we speculate as to what percentage we think we could take from those other markets. So bitcoin is taking from bonds, it's taking from real estate, it's taking from equities. The dollar doesn't have to die. Sure, gas goes from four dollars to eight dollars, it doesn't mean it goes to zero. Now is that realistic to
get one percent? Well, we can look at other disruptive technologies like Uber or Airbnb. Both of them were able to capture ten percent of their market in less than ten years. One and a half percent is extremely conservative. All right, Now let's start going into the future. Now we're getting into what's called the deployment phase. This is twenty thirty to twenty forty. Now, this is where things
start getting really exciting. But warning, I have to leave some historical numbers behind, and I got to start using my crystal ball. This is the adoption and the synergy phase. Now, this is where things start getting really exciting. We start to see adoption. Some interesting things about adoption is a lot of bitcoin critics want to tell you that bitcoin's already failed. It hasn't achieved any adoption. Why is it
in a medium of exchange? They tell you, why can't I just go to the store anywhere and spend my bitcoin? They ask, well, I'll tell you why. Because history gives us a framework and tells us that it doesn't come until the next phase. Anyone who's expecting that right now doesn't understand technological revolutions. They don't understand monetary history. They don't understand that there's this evolutionary and emergent process that
we have to go through. And what they also failed to understand is that even though Satoshi called an electronics cache system, they say it's failed because it's only a store of value. They fail to understand monetary history and something specifically called Gresham's law. Gresham's law says that bad money drives out good, bad money drives out good. So what that means is we're always gonna want to use
the bad money, not the good money. As long as I can use fiat currency to buy my lunch, buy my drink at the bar, I'm gonna use the fiat currency, and I'm gonna save the good money, which is the bitcoin. Why would I spend the good money? Now, we have a perfect way to understand this. In the United States, of course, we have coins, and we have quarters and dimes. Up till nineteen sixty five, these were made out of pure silver. Starting in nineteen sixty five they made them
with junk metal that's nickel and copper. You cannot find in America a pre sixty five quarter or diamond circulation. They're all gone. They were driven out. If you just so happened to get some change and you found a pre sixty five quarter in dime, you would not spend it. Why because a quarter now is worth four dollars, but you'd only get twenty five cents for it. The bad money, the worthless quarters and dimes, have driven out the good ones.
You wouldn't spend those, And so it's a perfect illustration. Now, why would we then use bitcoin as a medium exchange. Well, we would only use bitcoin as a medium exchange if it could do something that the existing money the Fiat system could not be used for now. We can use this as another example. Gold collectors buy bags of what's called junk silver because they believe that at some point the Fiat system crashes and they're going to need the
quarters and dimes in small denominations to barter with. They believe in a world where the other money, the field money, no longer works and they would need that money, which illustrates the point. So then we ask ourselves, well, what would we need bitcoin for that? FIA, it would be no good for certainly not to buy the drink at the bar, ork's fine for that, my plane ticket, make my house payment. So what kinds of things? Well, we look at the unique utility abilities of what bitcoin can do.
It's fast and cheap, it's borderless, it's permissionless, it's censorship resistant, it's immutable. So if we need to do those types of things, then we might want to use bitcoin. Well, certainly, I guess in authoritarian regimes, maybe North Korea, Afghanistan, where they censor transactions, maybe we could do it there. But where I think the real use case comes, and it's coming really fast, and we're talking about right now, is the ability to do micro transactions that are both fast
and cheap. Now what type of micro transactions being done fast a cheap, in a borderless way, in a permissionless way would be looking at? Well, anybody had heard of the rise of AI, more specifically AI agents. Now AI agents are the ability to build an AI bought to be autonomous and go do task transactions and maybe even build entire businesses by hiring other agents autonomously. Now, these AI agents are growing rapidly. Within the next couple of years,
they will be completely taken over. As a matter of fact, we can see that by twenty forty they're expected to grow by over forty percent compounded annual growth rate. And these AI agents can't have a bank account because they're not a person. They can't pass KYC, but they can have a Bitcoin wallet. These AI agents can hire other AI agents and pay them micro transactions. Why micro How much does it cost to hire an A agent? The
cost of power and compute? How many times will they need to transact hundreds, maybe thousands of times a day? And Fiat current you won't work for this. And this is all coming really fast, And I'm talking in the next couple of years. This is where bitcoin becomes indispensable. It enables a new era of autonomous collaboration. Now this isn't just me saying it. If you haven't been paying attention, it's all over. But Elon Musk says that by twenty thirty,
robots and autonomous systems will dominate. The twenty thirties, he says that they're going to overtake humans be able to buy these things for twenty thousand dollars. Everyone's going to have them, Autonomous taxis, autonomous robots, and they'll all be running off of Bitcoin will be their economic backbone where Fiat fells, micro transactions, high fees, the need for permission,
that's where Bitcoin will thrive. Just like electricity transformed cities, Bitcoin and AI together are going to power the next great economic revolution. Now, in this phase from twenty thirty to twenty forty, where we get the deployment, Bitcoin goes from a twenty one trillion market cap to almost a three hundred trillion bion dollar market cap. Now we're not talking about four thousand percent compounded onto a growth or
ar like we saw in the past. We're talking more of a modest thirty percent If real estate and equities are still going up by eight. If the money supply is expanding more than that, bitcoin is going to be at least doing thirty percent, which takes it from twenty one trillion to three hundred trillion, or puts it at about a fourteen million dollars price per bitcoin. Now, by then bitcoin would be worth is that fourteen million is going to dominate the global store of asset st value stage.
And if we look at this visually, we can see that it's now taking over collectibles in gold, and it's now catching up to the money supply. Still a little bit behind equities, but it's catching on quick. Do you guys want to see? We're at twenty fifty? All right? All right, here we are phase four. Now, this is the maturity phase. This is covering again twenty forty to twenty fifty, and this is where bitcoin evolves beyond just a financial asset. This is where it becomes something even bigger.
So let me go back to my crystal ball one more time. See what we got. Okay, So we're in the maturity phase. And the maturity phase is where bitcoin finally becomes a unit of account. This is where as we've seen throughout history. Using this repeatable framework, we've evolved to the final stage of a unit of account. Now this maps over perfectly. By this phase, Bitcoin achieves this role as this global unit of account, and we start
to see things that we haven't seen before. So, for example, in this maturity phase, we start to realize that life's getting easier. Life's not getting more expensive, Life's getting easier, Life's getting cheaper. I have to work less to achieve the same lifestyle I had before. So for example, in twenty sixteen, homes cost on average United States two hundred and eighty eight thousand dollars or six hundred and sixty
four bitcoin. Today, the median home has gone from two eighty eight to four hundred and thirty four thousand, but it's only four bitcoin. Life is getting easier Bitcoin flip to script on that. But it's not just homes. We can see all financial assets, oil, gold, the S and P five hundred in the last five years have dropped
almost ninety percent when priced in bitcoin terms. And it's not just financial assets, agriculture, eggs, cheese, beef, wheat, lumber, everything that we need to live dropping by ninety percent priced in bitcoin. This is what a bitcoin denominated world looks like. It's not just about cheaper goods. It's about a world where life gets easier for us. It's about where your money works for you. Now, imagine a world
where your money gets stronger every year. Imagine a world where your money buys you more goods and services in the future instead of less. A world where actually we're seeing innovation thrive and again life getting easier and not harder. Now under this bitcoin standard, we can actually start to see the reality of AI and robotics and energy all working together to reduce the costs and expand access, creating massive amounts abundance. Now, this isn't a bitcoin denominated world.
As Jeff Booth laid out earlier, This cannot happen in a fiat world. The systems are incompatible. The only way we achieve this is with bitcoin, and of course everybody wants this now in this phase, the maturity phase, I'm predicting again using what the Congressional Budget's Office has shown us through twenty fifty four, that the money printing continues.
Global store of assets have gone from three point five quadrillion dollars to eight point five quadrillion dollars, which sounds absolutely crazy, but again, my parents bought a home for forty thousand dollars. I mean, that's how crazy this world is. Now. Money is still there, bonds are still there, real estate, equities collectible as gold, all of those things are there. Bitcoin has now slowed down to about a twenty percent ARR. We're not talking crazy numbers. We're not talking to four
thousand percent ARR. And bitcoin has gone from a two hundred and eighty nine trillion to now at one point eight quadrillion dollar asset class. Divided that by the twenty one million and we are talking eighty five million dollars per bitcoin. And again, this doesn't mean the dollars worthless. This doesn't mean that dollars are no longer here. This just means that bitcoin has captured value from all the other asset classes. Bitcoin is now the second largest asset
in the world, behind real estate. And yes, it's pulled a lot of value from real estate, but we still you know, turns out need places to live, still need to warehouses for our stuff, buildings to meet in. Turns out, we still need real estate. But it has pulled value from real estate as well as every other asset that's out there. It's become the denominator. And at this point, the world has decided that we should no longer use
the denominator of fiat currency. And at this point bitcoin has reached its full and final stage, which is stage five, and has become the global unit of account. At this point, you no longer measure your wealth in fiat as you're your wealth in bitcoin, and at this point, one bitcoin equals one bitcoin. Now at that point, this is going to sound crazy, but hopefully I've built this foundation for you.
At that point, we're talking eight and a half trillion dollars of global store value assets just using the FEDS CBO or the CBO's projections of money printing, and a basic historical growth rate eight and a half eight point five quadrillion dollars. If any of you are good at math, divide that by twenty one million, and that puts bitcoin to about four hundred million dollars per bitcoin. And again,
this is not speculation, This isn't a dream. This is the sixth time we've seen this exact pattern playout over the last three hundred years, in an exact repeating process over the fifty years, just like the indellistrual revolution, steam engines, the rails still electricity, automobile, oil, telecom, and now the decentralized revolution. We see it repeating the same time. I'll put the slides up here. Their open source, you can download them. But I want to just leave you with
one thing. This is not just a new technology. This is a revolution. And you know that because you're here. So the question becomes simple, are you going to take advantage and help lead this revolution or are you're just going to watch it pass by? The choice is yours.