Talking with Joe Consorti

the decentralized technology. I try to bring to you each and every week, you know, some education to help you see things and understand things a little bit better. Of course, some of the latest breaking news to keep you up to date because this is a fast moving market, and of course also bring some of my friends in so you can listen to some other interesting people besides just me all the time. And so I am in the studio right now with Joe Consorti. You can find them

on Twitter at Joe Consorti. Joe, thanks for joining me absolutely, thanks for having me Mark Round to round two. Uh, we're we're laughing. We had a little mixed up in the studio before, so we're getting it going again. But if you've been following me on YouTube. Well, first of all, you're non following me on YouTube? What are you doing? Just go to YouTube search Mark Moss and hit that

subscribe button and that bell notification. The algorithm doesn't always like what I'm talking about, so, uh, you know, I need that help. Go hit there, Go check that out. And check out Joe on YouTube as well, at the Bitcoin Layer. And I said that, right, Joe the Bitcoin Layer, Right. Yeah, We'll make sure to link that down in the show notes below. Joe has been helping me out do some research, helping me dig up some charts and graphs and share this stuff with you guys on YouTube. He's a wizard

on those things. So check those out for sure. But Joe, you know, we we've been going back and forth. We've been sharing a bunch of data back and forth. I thought would be great for us just to kind of like talk about it, discuss it. We haven't really got a chance to do that, and why not do it on the radio here. So a lot going on in

the financial world. Um, you know, I've been doing content on YouTube since and I'm sorry, yes, since I started, uh kind of writing that bear market when it started and by the man, there was like nothing to talk about. It was just like dead, you know, and then March and then it got really excited again. And that's kind of where we're still at today. But a couple of things that I think, uh that will dive through um

topics that you and I have talked about extensively. But maybe let's start with the first one, which is this week, everybody was excited, well maybe not everybody, but a lot of people are waiting to see what this new CPI, this new consumer price inflation number was gonna be and is inflation still going up or is inflation going down? And it looks like a year over year it went down in month over a month, it went down. What's

the take on that? Of course, so a lot of eyes were on the CPR report coming into the July CPR report. Obviously, it gets released in August, and estimates were looking at it and saying that it was going to decelerate. It was gonna go from nine point one in June to eight point seven in July, and it actually fell even further than that, it fell down to eight point five, which was a huge relief. Um, you know,

looking at what the FETE has been doing. They have been raising interest rates at a higher rate of change than they have since the nineties, and so, you know, everybody was sort of expecting markets to blow up. People were, you know, thinking that they would have to hike even you know, further than where they are now. But it looks like we're already seeing the fruits of the FEDS labor.

It looks like inflation is already coming down and sort of responding to all these tightening interest rates across the board. Month over month, the biggest driver of the CPI basket, it's actually energy. So if you take a look at food,

food prices actually increased slightly a month over month. Good prices stay the same, uh, services prices stay the same, but energy dropped, and that that basically made up entirely for um the point six per point six percent down shift, and cp I was basically entirely energy prices, which is good because you know that's sort of what's hurting Americans the most. And when when you say energy, you're talking

about gasoline. Yeah for the most part, Yeah, for the most oil, but really it's aso and that's what people buy. People buy gas, they don't buy well, so gas dropped quite a bit, which, of course after going up by those astronomical rates, to get a little bit of a pullback,

I guess is pretty good. You know, one thing I see, like you've seen probably the stickers all over the gas pumps of Biden saying I did that, right, And so if like he's out there now saying I did that, I lowered gas prices, does that mean he has to be your sponsor for gas prices going up to like you can't take credit for dropping him if he didn't, If he doesn't take credit for them going up, right, I mean, that's what politicians do. They're they're selective about,

you know, just about everything. All the bad things that was the last guy, and then all the good things you gotta take credit for. Yeah, right, right. So I like to call cp I, which again for those listening, is the consumer price index. It's prices going up, you know how much you pay for as he's as Joe saying here, gasoline going up, your state going up, and whatever,

your milk, whatever the stuff is that you buy. Um. I like to call it instead of CPI, called cp LIE because it's like so heavily manipulated and they can almost show you whatever they want. And so if you dig into that data, a couple of things that look that kind of stand out to me. One right off the bat, I actually posted on Twitter earlier today. If you're not following me on Twitter, then what are you

even doing? Check it out at one Mark Moss. That's just the number one Mark Moss, and check out Joe while you're there at Joe CONSORTI UM, but I put out on Twitter today. UM, year over year rents are up on average nationally twenty six point eight percent nationally in some areas even way higher than that, some some

as much. UM. That's that's year over year. UM. And also there's an article that was out on Bloomberg that says that that home that rents are so tight that it's that I've run about a nineties six or nineties seven percent occupancy rate. People aren't moving out, Um, They're staying where there are, And so we have this crazy high year over year inflation in rates. Homes are extremely tight, there's none opening up, and that makes up twenty five

cent of the basket. And I think they showed somewhere around like five or six percent for shelter. Do do you know anything about that, right, Yeah, So when it comes to when it comes to like home price inflation and these rents, a lot of these are a lot more I wasn't talking about home price inflation. I was talking about the rent rent the rent rent price inflation, right, Yeah, so a lot of these are more sticky for the same exact reason that you mentioned. Um, you know, these

are life's necessities. This is where people live, and so the likelihood of people moving out and deciding to become homeless, right, that's sort of the last you know, leg down in demand instruction that you see. That's sort of the last decrease across the board and prices that you see is rent, right because people can you know, they can forfeit all of their different luxury goods, they can forfeit going out

on the weekends. But you know, it's a lot more difficult to find a place, you know, that's cheaper than the place you're already living. Um for families, that's more difficult, etcetera, etcetera. And so definitely like the last leg down we're gonna see when it comes to this demand destruction, price is going down across the board. Chances are it's it's it's going to be rent that generally lags behind everything else.

M M yeah, I just uh so, so you're absolutely right, and I think we haven't even seen the worst of it yet because to your point, it's sticky. So people typically sign one to your leases, etcetera. And it's not until they move out that they can then raise those rents. And so we're seeing all across the nation. We're seeing um when people move out as a fort increase, you know, in a lot of cases, and so a lot of

that will be happening as we go go along. But I'm just saying we saw almost uh and it's the basket, but somehow they showed like five percent. So that's why I call it cp lie um. But that's under this new FED guideline of being data dependent right there looking at that. Another thing they're looking at is the jobs report, and you and I we did some work on the

jobs report, and that number is super manipulated. One of the things that people need to know about that is that there's well, okay, so how do they get the data? Always always look at the data, like where do they get the data? So with the with the with the rent price, where do they get that data. Will they do a survey and they ask homeowners, what do you think you could get for your house if you rented it out? Well, I don't know who they survey. They

didn't survey me. And if you look at rent nationally, you'll see some places a percent, some places went down. So, uh, depending on where they get that sample size, they get a bunch of different answers. UM. Now, going to this job's data, they also run two surveys right to get that jobs data. Yeah, absolutely so, I mean there are several several different surveys. UM. You know, you have initial jobless claims, and then you have unemployment data, UM, non

farm payrolls, all these different things. UM. You know, basically all of it is survey data. UM. One of the things that was especially surprising about the jobs data that released this last week, UM was non farm payrolls data. So unemployment is the tightest it's ever been. Uh, you know, in the last couple of decades three point five percent. It hasn't dipped below three point five percent, and you know several decades this has sort of been in the bottom.

And you've got uh, non farm payrolls data coming in at over double what the expectation was. And so the labor market right now is a lot stronger um, you know, than than the FED would like. We've or so it seems. Hold that thought, Joe, we gotta take a break. You're listening to the Markma Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution.

I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti. We're talking about the FED data and of course we're gonna talk about what it means for markets moving forward and what it means for bitcoin. We've got a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time, so you do not want to miss this. We're gonna come back finish talking about that thought. Um, you're listening to the Markma Show. Don't go away, We're gonna be right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show. We're

talking about the decentralized revolution each and every week. Of course, we look at it through the lens of politics, finance, and technology. We're talking about the technology of bitcoin, and I'm in the studio today with Joe Consorti. We're talking about the FED UM and so we again politics, finance and technology. We're talking about this finance piece specifically right now.

And so Joe, Uh, sorry for the abrupt change into the commercial, but you were talking about these non farms payroll um reports that came out and how it looked like the jobs market is extremely strong, and everybody was patting themselves on the back over that. Right. Yeah, that's exactly right, And and some of these numbers are very

miss leading, especially non farm payrolls. Many people who I follow have been saying, uh, you know, people like Jeff Snyder have been saying that non farm perils have lost their credibility through time and taking a look at something like Okay, there's a you know, there's a literally non farm payrolls were expected to come in with a two fifty dollar edition. They came in over double that at

five eight thousand dollars. Uh, you know. But at the same time that initial jobless claims are taking higher and higher and higher every single month, right. Uh. The you know, the biggest report you probably want to keep an eye on when it comes to leading indicators is as to how the job markets doing. Is initial jobless claims and continuing claims. You don't want to take a look at, uh,

you know, things like the unemployment rate that lag. You don't want to take a look at non farm payrolls, which have you know, lost their reliability over the last decade or so. Um, you really want to look at, you know, who is filing for unemployment, who is filing these initial jobless claims. For me, that's that's sort of the highest signal indicator. Um. Of course you'll you'll never hear the people in the mainstream highlight that, but as of right now, you know, it's been taking up pretty

steadily since March. Yeah, so what I want to really get to is if the FED is being data dependent because everybody unfortunately I had uh I think I talked about on the radio a couple of weeks ago, which, by the way, if you missed, you can always catch my back episodes on the podcast. Just search Mark Mosh podcast.

You can find it on any podcast player. But I I kind of talked about how insane it was for us to sit there and watch the FED to come out and tell us what the price of money will be, and how it's almost as insane as trying to watch some groundhog come out of the ground and tell us what the weather is going to be. But yeah, here we are and so everybody wants to hang on the word of the Fed. What are they going to do?

And so looking at those two data points that the inflation rate, the CPI and now, so we have lower inflation, which is what they want. They're they're making positive progress down UM, which would then make you think maybe they could ease off of their tightening program. We'll call it that raising rates UM. But then but then we also have this strong jobs report which is manipulated and we believe it's false, but they've got it, which then gives

them room to increase. So we kind of have these two different data points that let them now go either way. Now we're kind of like inconclusive. Almost Yeah, that's exactly right.

So I actually, and this is the benefit of of writing your your newsletter literally the day as the economic releases come out, because I was writing a newsletter before the end, before CPI came out about how the feds runway was extended because with a strong jobs market, if their goal is detain inflation and the jobs market is extremely strong, then they got the green light to extend their hiking runway. You know, well passed three, well passed

neutral under restrictive territory. That gives them the green light. But then with the CPI release coming in lower than anticipated, that gives them the red light because it shows that they're tightening is working. There's no real need to continue slamming on the yeah, if inflation is already decelerating, right, So you know, it's sort of this, it's this, it's this, it's this odd game. At the same time, with the strong labor market, they can continue tightening, but with fighting inflation,

they can't tighten too much. Deflation is already accelerating, and the last thing they want is deflation. The last thing they want to do is go too far and send markets into a huge deflation. Are deflation? Are eavent? So? Um? I did a video reason I'm um, maybe it was free. I do so many of them. But I was talking about the difference of deflation versus disinflation. And so that's two words that are thrown around a lot of people. You don't understand what they are. But deflation is the

opposite of inflation. So inflation now, first of all, I reject the definition of inflation. Inflation is the monetary supply going up. That's the Austrian definition of it. Trying to use that as consumer prices going up is a little bit wrong. But anyway, Um, if if inflation is consumer prices going up, then deflation would be the opposite, which is prices going down, whereas disinflation is still having inflation but as slow or rate. And so what we're seeing

right now is disinflation. Instead of going up at nine point one percent, it's down to eight point five. But nothing goes up and down in a straight line. So uh, A lot of people are asking the question has inflation peaked? Um, what do you say about that? Of course, so for me potential and and I guess I should say, I should say over what time frame? You always have to ask that question today. Has it peaked for this year

as it peaked for this this decade? Yeah? For me, I think it's I think it's it's peaked this year, or at least for this cycle. The reason I say that is because, um, energy is what's really what really drove these these increases. And of course when you're making goods, energy is an input in that. And so basically taking a look at commodities, especially commodities that are used in end products, talk about copper, A lot you and I have talked about copper before because it's used as an

input in so many end products. You can sort of look at this as the bell weather of Okay, our our price is going to increase across the border, decrease across the boarding. That's gonna look like. And since June, copperas fell very precipitously. I don't know the exact percentage,

but it's it's really fallen off of its highs. And so what that tells me is, Okay, if a lot of this inflation that we've seen since the start of one has been driven by huge increases in energy energy prices, which in my mind, you know, that's that's a supply issue, and we're starting to see the commodities that caused that, um consumer price inflation to come down that I think that's leading and telling me personally that yeah, for now, consumer price inflation this year has peaked and is headed

back down. Mm hmm. Now I do want to make a note again. I put this on Twitter the other day to again follow me on Twitter at one Mark Moss and follow Joe at Joe CONSORTI um, but I put on Twitter, I said, they just remember for everyone who's not not so sure. Uh, just if inflation comes down from eight points eight point five now to five point five, doesn't mean prices that's the disinflation versus deflation. Doesn't mean prices are coming back down. It means they're

still going up, just at a just at a slower rate. Um, I might I might agree with that. I think maybe we've seen the height of inflation for this cycle, although like I said, it's like completely false anyway, because to the point of I made of of of the shelter category, which is of the basket is up by and we also saw foods up ten percent, So I mean, like, how is food up ten percent? Shelters up? But somehow gas brought it all the back down. So anyway, it

is what it is. But um, i'd think maybe maybe for the rest of this year we might see that. But I've also gone out and said that I think this might be some of the lowest inflation we see for the decade. And so back to this kind of nothing goes up and down in a straight line. I think, you know, we're we're we're retreating, but I think we're still going to go higher over over time. I think it's the only way. I don't know, what do you think about that potentially? I mean there are two narratives.

There's this narrative of you know, this consumer price inflation sort of on like this endless path to infinity because you know, high for inflation is the only way. We have way too much debt right now. Um, if you take a look, if you plot uh gross domestic product against all of publicly held liabilities, you can see, okay, So so our debt that we have to pay interest on is climbing rapidly. In our GDPs is not even remotely close. So there's this school of thought that we

have too much data as of right now. The only way out is through this implicit default of of printing in order to pay for it. There's that school of thought. And then there's a school of thought that the inflation we're seeing now isn't necessarily the It is, of course the sim that I'll be better in my words, the consumer price inflation we're seeing now, um might be partially the symptom of you know, injecting the economy with fourteen shilling,

but also partially supply driven. And I think you know, we were going to see some relief and cp I purely because that supply driven component seems to be alleviated for the time being. But I think in the long run, um the you know, the debt levels is going to be a real concern and I think, you know, one of the ways out will be through this continued implay and default of inflating the money. So we're gonna talk about that because we've got some some discussion there when

we get back in a second. You're listening to the Mark ma Show. I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti. We're talking about the decentralized revolution, politics, finance and technology coming together and bitcoin. We've got a lot more to discuss. Don't go away, I'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Mos Show. If you're just tuning in, I'm in the studio right now with Joe Consorti. You can find them on Twitter at Joe Consorti.

Of course I am at one Mark Moss And of course, as always, we're talking about the world changing right before our very eyes, as we swing, as the pendulum swings from centralization to decentralization. We are in the middle of a decentralized revolution that will chart out over the next hundred two hundred years UM. So before we took the break, we were talking about has inflation peaked or will it

go higher? The question that you always have to ask is over what time frame bonds are horrible, bonds are great? Well over what time frame you know, UM, And so you're gonna have to look at that like bullish on bitcoin or barrass on bitcoin, Well over what time frame? UM? And so if as I believe that we're in this d centralized revolution, so the pendulum swings on tune and

fifty year time frame, and we've maxed out centralization. And what we've seen is that over the last really you know, hundred years, maybe more spectically fifty years UM, we've had massive inflation as an Austrian definition of increase in the money supply, which is inflationary more money chasing, limited goods UM. To offset that, in the United States specifically, but most of the developed world, the West, we've off shored all

of our manufacturing, all of our high paying jobs. So now job is eight thousand dollars offshore or hundred dollar parts Now eight bucks, you know, made off shore, and so We've had this deflation because we've been able to globalize. But if the world starts to deglobalize, which is already happening and I believe will continue to happen, and we have to now on shore those jobs again and on

shore that manufacturing again, which again is already happening. They see this with the with the chip manufacturing, and even with mining and things like that. Even the US is sourcing out lithium I'm sorry, uranium in the US. We're starting to see all this happening. So that continues to happen, all of the benefits of the globalism and the deflation will then reverse and then we'll have inflation. So that's

kind of my statement on that. I don't know if if you have a comment on that, of course, yeah, I think what you know, bringing a lot of these industries back to the United States and in d globalizing, we're definitely on the track to that. You're seeing what happens when you have too much dependence on one entity. You're seeing it in Europe, and you know proliferates everywhere else, um you know, in in several other nations, and obviously

that is inherently inflationary. And it's a type of inflation that is more entrenched as well. It's a type of inflation that doesn't just go away like uh, you know, consumer driven inflation or CPI inflation that you can just you know, get away with the snap of a finger, with a with a little bit of demand destruction. Um, yeah, No,

I definitely agree with you there. Yeah, And and you know again, I mean the reason why I reject the prices going up is because there's there's trillions of prices, and there's trillions of reasons why those prices could go up on certain things or down. Like Walmart now is trying to change over their inventory. They realized they bought all the wrong inventory. Now they want to get rid of a lot of their durable goods and they want to move back to kind of consumer staples for example.

And the CEO announced that they're gonna basically fire sell all the inventories just to clear it out. So like, well, the prices just got marked out on that, Like that wasn't on the BINGO card, Like I didn't. I didn't expect that prices will go down because they overbought and run category and they need to fire sell it, right, So like there's a trillion prices, there's a trillion reasons why prices could go up or down on any of those trillion things. Um, Which again it's a little bit crazy,

but again they try to classify in two areas. Right, So, demand pull or cost push. So when the costs go up to the points that you made about commodities, when when the cost to get the commodities out of the ground, the commodities goes up, transportation all that those pushed the cost of costs of things up. And then there's demand pull. When there's too much demand, then it pulls the price up as well on the cost push side. And back

to the jobs report. Um, if the Fed seems to be trying to crush demand, which is basically what they're trying to do, They've they've said it, I've talked about it many times. They want to crush the stock market asset prices to kind of do this reverse wealth effects, we don't spend as much money. Um. Would you, first of all, would you agree that that they I mean they said that right there, trying to demand crush demand, right? So, Um, then you have this job support that came out very

strong and actually wages went up by zero. So wages going up is actually the opposite of what they want, because wages going up leads to inflation. So it almost seems like the Fed, what the Fed and the government want is for our wages to actually go down, which is the opposite of what we the people would want. That's right, Yeah, in order to I mean we talk about this demand demand pull inflation in when we had

all this fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now is not only is the labor market rip roaring, but everybody has all of this income to go out and spend it um and so that was a component alongside these supply shocks which led to this multi decade high and inflation. Now, what will continue to allow this to happen a strong labor market. Right, if the labor market continues being strong,

then you know, inflation may stay entrenched. And so what the Feed is looking for is the reason they're doing this so aggressively is partially to break the back in the labor market, to increase the amount of people who are out destitute on the street. Uh. And so taking a look at a strong labor market with like you mentioned, average hour only Erney's going up month over month point five percent year over year five point two percent. That's huge.

Wage price inflation is one of the parts of inflation that they hate the most, and that's one of the ones that they're targeting with this. That's let me just let me just reiterate what Joe said there. The wage price inflation is the one they hate the most. So that means your pay going up is what they hate the most. That's what they have to stop. So, um, the prices of goods are going up. Congratulations, there they

went down. Inflation slowed a little bit, so now it's only going to buy eight point five percent, but your pay went up by zero point five So that means that your cost of living is going up with your pay isn't keeping up. So you know, that means that that that your quality of life goes down. That means you buy less things. At eight point five percent, that means on the average, the average American it costs him about three dollars per month to have the exact same

lifestyle they had the month before. So if you make thirty two dollars an hour, that's ten extra hours in the month you have to work just to have the exact same lifestyle. That you had the month before. Those are ten hours that you could have spent with your wife or your kids. Ten hours you could have spent in the gym with Joe. I know Joe loves to be in the gym. Ten hours you could have been going to school to increase your education, to start aside business.

That's your life that's been stolen because of the inflation. It's that insane. All right, Let's let's reframe this a little bit, Joe. Um, because other than a couple of nerds like me and you, Um, what the heck do most people care about CPI? Right? What does that mean? They know that prices went up, like that's all they really care about, or probably more people that are tuned

into this. They they're trying to figure out where the market is going because markets are forward looking, right, so um, discounting mechanisms as they're called, Right, So what does this mean for my retirement account, my stocks, my my house, my assets? Based off of this information? Does the Fed? Uh? Does the FED have this more neutral position? And now maybe there's this soft landing they're able to kind of thread the needle to like maybe their backs aren't as

forced as people thought. They were, so potentially that's coming off of the CPI report, especially, we saw a lot of moves in forward looking interest rate markets. And I'll explain this in a way that that makes it so like,

you know, why should you care about all of this? Well, what the Fed is doing right now is they're they're essentially, in the simplest terms, they're removing liquidity from the economy by making it more expensive to borrow um you know, at in in very lay in terms, and so one of the things more extensive to borrow by pushing their

straight higher. Yes, And so basically there are these futures markets, particularly federal funds futures, which let you take a look at the market is pricing in that the Fed is going to do basically, and so Fed funds futures originally they were at a much higher terminal rates, so they were predicting the Fed would have to hike much higher uh and that it would be much further out. So not only would would it be a higher terminal rate, but it will be a slow grind to get there.

And now with the CPI report, basically the markets are saying the Fed is looking at slowing consumer price inflation and they're understanding that to some extent, they're cooling the economy, which is what they want. And so interest rate futures markets are telling us now that they're going to be able to get to three point five percent roughly as a terminal rate. Right now, we're at two and a half percent FED funds and that terminal rate will be reached late this year or Q one next year, which

means as of right now. Because markets are forward looking, risk markets are forward looking. There taking a look at what these futures markets are saying because rates are also forward looking. But essentially the reason risk assets have bottomed and they've risen, the NASDAC is up sixteen from the lows. The reason bitcoin seems to be catching a bit of a bid is because the markets are understanding that the FED is going to pause late this year early next year,

and that's what the data is saying. I'm not making outlandage predictionous that are, you know, not based on data. The reason let's let's let's hold let's let's hold that thought right there, and then I want to come back and let's we'll talk about bitcoins specifically. You said it's catching a bid. There was something from a Bloomberg analyst. I came out today that I want to talk about as well, Um, and so we'll come back with more. You're listening to the Mark ma Show. Of course, we're

talking about the decentralized Revolution. I'm in the studio with Joe CONSORTI. Check them out on Twitter at Joe Consorti. We got a whole lot to cover when I come back. Don't go away, We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Moa show where we talk about each and every week the decentralized revolution, the way the world is changing right before our very eyes through the lens of politics, finance, and tech not ology.

Of course, that technology being Bitcoin, the decentralized revolution technology. I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti and Um, Joey, I kind of cut you off. Um, you were talking about the way that No. Now the market sort of thinks the FED will probably raise into next year, and risk on assets, or I should say risk risk on assets are starting to catch a bid. Bitcoin has been catching a bid. It's up from well as low as seventeen thousand now too. I think about twenty four is

um range um. And so the NASDAC is also pumping back up, which is also one of those risk on assets. So you're starting to see that it is coming back to life. UM. I think a question a lot of people are asking, um, we're back into bull market territory that we were. We went went into bear market therey, now we're supposedly we're back into bull market territory. Um. Is this one of those just deep bull bear market

fake outs? So in my purview though, it is, and I think we you know, probabilistically, of course, there is a scenario where, you know, probably probabilistically that's the key word. Yes, he says, we can never be definitive. You know, we always got to give both scenarios. There's a situation right now where the FED comes out later this August Rum Powell is going to do some forward guidance. He's speaking at Jackson Hole. UM. And there there is a scenario

where he says, labor markets too strong. Right now, the market's interpreting our our you know, our FED speak as dubbish. We're not dubbish. We're we're committed to going to three five and beyond. If that happens, then you know, this is a bear market rally and risk you's a little bit. But if you know, let's say, uh, September, CPI again comes in low fed speak is dubbish once again, then you know we could see again a pause late this year early next year. And that's what that's what rates

markets are telling us. So I'm leaning towards the ladder where this is more of a trend shift towards risk on than a bear market rally. But of course, you know, we we've always you got to be probabilistic about these things. Now, bitcoin has been trading like a risk on asset. It's basically been moving just like almost in lock step. Um. Correlated with the nasdack. Um. You know, we've talked about

this quite a bit. But Um, there was an article I saw of there was a Bloomberg analyst that came out and said that he thinks that bitcoin is likely to transition to a risk off asset at the second half of two. He said it's a likely rally. Bitcoin will likely rally alongside golden treasury bonds. According to Michael Glone, a senior commodity strategy at Bloomberg. UM, what do you say about that? So over at the Bitcoin Lair on

YouTube and on substack. One of the things that I talked about three or four weeks ago was bitcoin tracking very closely with global liquidity and sort of moving in and out with global liquidity. Um. One of the way that bitcoin is traded by the guys with all the money, right, you know, we we like to think that that you and I trade inside and we moved the bitcoin price, but we don't. Ultimately, it's these huge funds that are trading.

We call that. We call that the difference of dumb money, which is Joe and I and you whoever is listening, and then the smart money that's the big money. Right, that's right. And so right now, this is sort of an informational arbitrage. You and I see bitcoin as debasement insurance, where we understand that you know, this, this FIAT system is sort of program to, you know, debase because of our debtloads and FIA and bitcoin is absolutely fixed, programmatically scarce.

So we understand it as debasement insurance. Big funds don't trade it that way yet, and so there's this informational arbitrage that we've been able to catch on for the last twelve years. The bitcoin is how a price subscribed to it. But the reason that tide might start to change is you start to see institutions coming into the mix and potentially viewing bitcoin, uh, you know, as something

they like to allocate to as well. You saw black Rock partner up with coin based specifically to offer not crypto bitcoin to your clients through private trust, and so I think it's a key peace right there, not crypto bitcoin. That's exactly right. I think through time that window will close and bitcoin will transition into a risk of asset

because ultimately more people are going to catch on. Uh you know, one of the end games is highly inflationary for the dollar, and I think over time, more people are gonna catch on that bitcoin is the solution to that. And slowly but surely that gap is starting to change from bitcoin being risk on to bitcoin being risk off. Yeah, I would agree. And one thing that you said I think is super crucial for everyone to grasp onto is that our informational arbitrage and so um, you always need

to have an edge. If you want to compete in sports, or you want to compete in business, or you want to compete in and investing, you have to have an edge, right, one little thing that makes you better in one area than somebody else. If you don't know what you're investing edges, that means you don't have one. And what what I think Joe is referring to is as information arbitrage. Is Joe and I we spent a lot of time studying bitcoin,

and so we have an edge. We see what bitcoin is or could become, while most people don't, and so that gives us a little bit of an edge or an advantage there. And so that just think about that, and I would agree with you, Joe. I mean, I think, Um,

to your point, we've already seen it as that. And to the one of this Bloomberg analyst, he's saying the same thing, UM that in a severe recession, bitcoin will shine and people start to see that it's this um risk off asset moving from risk on risk off, and I say, it's it's been trading like a NASDAC stock, but it's not that. Um. One more thing I want to talk about. We have a couple minutes left. Um, have you did you look at that new uh stable stats? I know you do. You guys do a lot of

research into the lightning and stuff like that. Have you looked at the El Salvador stable coin that they're trying to release. Not extensively, I've heard of it. I've seen a couple of headlines, but not extensively. Yeah, so they're doing something like perpetual swaps, like is what bit mix used, so um, if you traded on on bit mix. I'm not even sure if they're around anymore. I know they're

closed off to American consumers a while ago. But basically they had like x btc, so it was like a synthetic BTC and it was like somehow set the price off the synthetic purp swaps. I don't really know a lot about it. I guess you don't. You don't know that much about it either. Yeah, no, not a whole lot. I mean, ultimately, the more the more on ramps and the Bitcoin, the better. I think. The development you're seeing across Bitcoin Lightning as of right now is quite remarkable.

You know, over at Lightning Labs of a protocol coin called Taro. It's an active development that would allow you to issue assets such as stable coins over Bitcoin and Lightning. So somebody in the country like El Salvador would be able to hold dollars in bitcoin in the same exact wallet, like benefiting from the privacy the security of the bitcoin network. There are numerous numerous things going on in bitcoin right now. Um, that are you know, again slowly inching us towards this

future where bitcoin is is potentially a base layer money, right. Yeah. One of the things I mean I think about with Taro is like before the Internet. I mean, I don't know, I need to do some research on this club and talk about quite a bit. But um, you know, somewhere in the seventies or eighties, I'm guessing stock certificates were actually still certificates that they would send to you. Before the Internet, we had like actual bearer instruments, um, and

I would have the stocks. I remember, I remember having stock certificates. Um, I'm not that old. I would have them. And then as a bearer instrument, if I want to give you this stock certificate, do you have it? And so like you could almost see like stocks being issued on that Tarot blockchain, and then I could have custody over that stock certificate and then I could exchange it with you over that lightning layer, which is a layer

above the bitcoin network. Something like that that's right. Yeah, there's a future where that's conceivable. And the and the great thing about that is people who don't have access to traditional financial rails will now have access to all these different instruments that are you know, issued over bitcoin.

Anybody who has bitcoin while it has access to these um and even if you're not a fan of these other assets, even if you don't want, uh, you know, the doom scenario where people start issuing you know, n f t s and things on bitcoin. Any increase in demand for a transactional capacity, right, will come with an increase in liquidity on bitcoin. So let's say the United States tratesury begins issuing, they start, you know, doing treasury

options on bitcoin. There's a structural demand for United States treasuries. That liquidity will now come onto bitcoin. And it might not be somebody like the United States Treasury. Wuld be a corporation that decides to issue uh, you know, their their bonds the top the bitcoin blockchain through something like tarot that whatever demand there is for those bonds, which I can tell you there's a lot of the United the United States dollar capital market is the largest capital

market in the world. That would come with increased demand for bitcoin liquidity, and with that, you know, price goes up. Yeah, the rising pride and the rising tide lifts all the boats at that point, and I would agree. I mean, I know a lot of people in the bitcoin space specifically think it's like anything else in the bitcoin is ridiculous. That's the only asked you need to own. But the reality is is that we still need progress in other areas,

and we still need other types of businesses. We still need goods and services, and so people always be willing to invest into those those goods and services, and so we need a way to figure that out as well. I've also seen some stuff about even some governments issuing their currencies on it, so potentially like a Japanese gan or like a euro or something like that, and then it could move their own currency could move over a bitcoin rail but still keep their currency in place, which

is pretty amazing to think about. And if you think about the dollar as just a payment network, um, then you can start to see how that works out. Anyway, that's a whole different conversation. You're listening to the markma show. We've been talking about the decentralized revolution, how the world is changing from centralization and decentralization, of course, being led by Bitcoin. I've been in the studio with Joe CONSORTI choke him out on Twitter at Joe CONSORTI say what's

up that you heard us here? Of course I'm Mark Moss. That's what we got for you today. Thanks so much for listening.