Shocking Math: How Bitcoin Could Reach $43M (full breakdown) - podcast episode cover

Shocking Math: How Bitcoin Could Reach $43M (full breakdown)

Mar 04, 202432 min
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Episode description

Welcome to the Mark Moss Show, where we explore the frontiers of finance and the evolution of money. In today's electrifying episode titled "Shocking Math: How Bitcoin Could Reach $43M (full breakdown)," we're diving deep into the world of cryptocurrency, specifically, the colossal potential of Bitcoin.

Join your host, Mark Moss, as he unpacks the staggering mathematics that could catapult Bitcoin to a mind-blowing $43 million valuation. We'll discuss Hal Finney's early predictions, Fidelity's bold research, and even Wall Street's growing interest in allocating significant percentages of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

From historical parallels with gold to the accelerating digital revolution, we'll dissect the role of Bitcoin as a burgeoning store of value and its evolutionary path as a novel form of money that could disrupt the financial status quo.

Are we on the brink of seeing Bitcoin eclipse gold? Will fiat currencies falter, paving the way for Bitcoin to ascend? These are the questions we'll grapple with, providing you with a comprehensive breakdown that's as informative as it is shocking.

Listen closely as Mark shares his insights on investment strategies, the importance of securing your digital assets, and the probabilities that could shape the future of our monetary system.

So, whether you're a Bitcoin skeptic or believer, this episode is sure to spark your curiosity and perhaps even inspire your approach to cryptocurrency. Stay tuned as we embark on this fascinating journey to discover if and when Bitcoin might reach heights that few have dared to imagine.

Don't forget to engage with the show—drop us your comments, hit that like button, and subscribe for more thought-provoking content. Now, without further ado, let's get into the world of Bitcoin's shocking potential with Mark Moss.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

The shocking math how bitcoin will reach forty three billion dollars. We're going to break down the math. Now, in life, there are no such things on certainties. There's only probabilities, and we bet on those probabilities every single day. That's exactly what markets are. And Bitcoin has beaten the odds over and over. It's been called dead hundreds of times, it's crashed dozens of times, and yet it keeps coming

back stronger every single time. And now today it's crossing what we call the chasm as we see Blackrock and Fidelity adding millions of people. We have three US presidential candidates openly discussing bitcoin, and so today for those of you with an open mind and are willing to understand that again, everything in life is a probability, I'm going to break down the math. I'm going to break down the future potential of Bitcoin like it's never been done before.

I'm going to show you the odds. I'm going to show you the path it will take. We're going to look at the different price points along the way, the timeframes, and of course how to play this. If you're a huge bitcoin skeptic or you're a diehard bitcoin believer either way, this is for you, So let's go. All right, welcome back. If you're new to the channel, my name is Mark Moss. I make these videos, of course, to change the way you think about money, because almost everything you've learned is

wrong and it's changing. We're talking about bitcoin, we're talking about a new form of money, and most people don't understand it because as my good friend Jeff Booth, who will hear about later, he likes to say that it's very hard to see a new system, to understand a new system when you're stuck in an existing system. So look, I get it. It's difficult. So have an open mind. Now if you want the short answer, where is it going?

I'm going to break the down the math to how we get to forty three billion and for some of us in our lifetime. All right, I'm going to break down the math, the path, all that. But first I want to tell you a story. Last night I was watching a brand new TV show. I think it was called The Tracker. It's not super good. It was okay,

it was the very first episode that I saw. But there's this guy and he goes and finds people like people have rewards and bounties, things like that, but he would throughout the show he kept saying, if we go now, we have a ninety five percent chance, but if we wait an hour, we only have a five percent chance. If I hurry up and get you out now, I think we have a fifty percent chance. But if we wait, and he kept talking about probabilities all the time, we

have a probability of this. Now if we wait, my probability drops to this. And probably I don't know, three, four or five times throughout the show he would do that, And that's how life is. So the first thing I want to let you know is that all right. So the problem that I see too many people making is they think very linear. Everything's black or white, it's this or that, there's no way this can happen, or there's no way this can happen. And that's not how life works. Okay,

there's a world of possibilities. Everything is possible, and then there's probabilities or percentages that we think that this can happen. So you may be the biggest Bitcoin skeptic in the world, but still ask yourself this question, are you one hundred percent sure, one hundred percent guaranteed there's no way bitcoin will ever succeed from here, And of course the answer

is no, you can't say that. Now you might say there's a ninety percent chance, Okay, great, then that ten percent you might want to listen, all right, does that makes sense? So think about things in terms of and let me break this down for you in what's going to be a masterclass. So the short answer is, like I said, forty three billion. If you just want to shut it off right now, you could have just read the title. But let me break down the mas for you.

But more for than they said, how does it get there? And when? When does it happen? I bet those are the questions that you want to know, and that's what I'm going to break down. Okay, So if we start to break this down, the very first thing we have to understand is what is it? When in Silicon Valley about fifteen years ago, when they were trying to raise money for Uber, they would go, Hey, I have this new app I'm building. I want to raise one hundred million,

and they'd say, what is it? Right, I'm a venture capital investor of investing in venture cap for probably over a dozen years now, that's what we do what is it?

Speaker 2

So?

Speaker 1

First of all, what is bitcoin? Is it a brand new technology? Sure, yeah, it's technology. What is it disrupting? So, okay, it's an app. Uber is an app. What is it disrupting. It's disrupting the taxi industry, the limo industry, the ride share industry. And then we look at how big those markets are, and then we look at how much we think you can pull from those We're going to break the math down in a minute. But first, what is it? So? Yes, it's a brand new technology, it's an app. What is

it doing? Well, it's sort of like money, a medium of exchange. The white paper says it's peer to peer cash, electronic cash, so we exchange it for money and meaning of exchange. It's also a store of value, as we call an soov. All right now, it is winning the war of store value, which eventually could evolve into the next stage. I'm going to break that evolutionary path down

for you so you can see the timeframe. But let's just talk about the store value because I want to simplify this, and I know it sounds crazy, but I'm going to make it sound very conservative so we could overshoot it. So let's just talk about the store of value right now, all right, so what we can see mini headlines that can continue to pull them. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest financial institutions in the United States and the world, says bitcoin will not could not should,

but will compete with gold as store of value. This is Goldman Sacks. We know that Larry Fink, the largest asset manager in the world from black Rock Now, went on TV a month ago saying that bitcoin is a flight to safety. Right, so it's a store of value. We know this. We can see Kathy Wood, who runs one of the biggest tech funds in Wall Street. She says that bitcoin describing bitcoin as both. So it's both, it's multiple things. It's more things than we'll know in

the future. Both a store of value and a risk off asset, meaning we use it to store wealth, but we also use it to when there's times of risk or high inflation. Wood emphasize that when compared to gold, the upward trajectory hints at the possibility of overtaking gold as a more valuable investment in the future. Okay, so you can see this from any number of people. It is a store of value. It's winning the store of value. Bitcoin is like digital gold, all right, but it's better

than gold. I'm not going to break down all the ways in this video. If you want a separate video comparing bitcoin to gold, let me know. I can make another video on that. But you have to understand that it doesn't compete directly with gold, because it's better from that standpoint. And again the markets tell us that that's not just my opinion. If you're a goldbug, I am too. I've been at goldbug since two thousand and eight. I own gold, I talk about gold all the time. But

you still have to understand this. Don't be mad. This is what the markets tell us. As a matter of fact, we can see here the pace of inflows. Now we have these new bitcoin ETFs, so the markets are now voting. The pace of money going into the ETFs is remarkable. In just fifteen days, In only fifteen days, the first fifteen days open, the bitcoin ETFs attracted over twenty five billion dollars, comparable to the market cap of the largest

gold producer, Bear Gold. Within fifteen days, more money went into these bitcoin ETFs than the entire market cap of the largest gold producer. Think about that we can see right here, this unparalleled growth to the second largest assets under management AUM among US commodity ETFs, establishing them as the new digital gold. So they surpassed silver, and they are growing way faster than gold ever did, and they're catching up to At the rate they're at, they could

overtake gold in the next year. All right, So the markets are telling us this, it's not just commentators, right, But we have to also understand as a store of value, it's not competing in an industry, right, So uber was competing against taxis, Uber was competing against limousines. Bitcoin as a store of value doesn't compete with industries. It's not competing with Visa or PayPal. For people to make those comparisons as ridiculous. It's a store of value, So it

competes against other store of value assets. That's what's scoring. That's what it's actually competing against. And we can see that the market that it's going after, the market it's competing in is value itself. Okay, so it's not It is a new technology, but it's not Visa, it's not MasterCard, it's not Facebook. It's competing against other store value assets such as gold, for value itself. All right, hopefully that

makes sense. Now, we also have to realize that the world has changed a lot, and what's happened is as the world has rapidly changed money and our technology into store of value has not. So we are in the digital revolution. I'm sure you know that by now. You're watching me over the internet, so of course you're part of the digital revolution. What we've seen is that while the digital revolution has digitized everything, music, movies, books, videos,

everything's become digitized, our money hasn't. And actually, this cool image, all these images were created by chat GBT. Pretty interesting and this shows us how all of these technologies have become digitized, books, movies, music, et cetera. And the last thing to be digitized that hasn't yet it's happening right now is digitizing value, digitizing wealth. That's what we're doing

right now, and it's a monetary evolution. We have to understand that what we use as money today, well gold was money for five thousand years, has been an evolutionary process and this is the next step, the digitization of value. This is where it's compute. That's how big the market is. Okay, now, let me just break this down to something that you

can understand, so we can have something to build off of. Okay, So, as I said, gold was money for five thousand years, right, So at the end of the day, we don't want money. I know it's a shocking statement to make. I know you want a lot of money. No, we don't want money. What we want is the goods and services that money buys us. We want food, we want clothes, we want a house, we want to travel, things like that. We want the goods and services. Gold or money is what

we use to get those things. And we can hold our value, our wealth, our energy in that money until we're ready to deploy it to get those goods and service that we want. So if goods and services are wealth and money is a way to acquire it, then what we do is we take all the goods and services of the world, the wealth divided by all the gold. That's the price. It's a unit of account. Everything is priced in gold or priced in money. So think about this. Gold was money. It was the store of value for

five thousand years. It was the unit of account. Everything was priced in Now gold because of technology, the world started evolving and we had global trade, taking off globalization. But gold's very slow. If I want to pay from California somebody in New York with gold, it takes a long time to get that gold there. So what we did is we put the gold in the banks, and the banks then used a ledger to say, hey, you know from California. Now the guy in New York, now

on the ledger shows he has the gold. The golden actually move. They just changed the ledger. That was a new piece of technology, all right, but that didn't actually solve anything. And so what we did is we created paper dollars, Fiat money, paper dollars that represented the gold in the bank. So we had one US dollar was equal to twenty ounces of gold. Let me show you the chart. This is the gold price chart for the

last one hundred years. So what we can see since the eighteen hundreds, twenty US dollars equaled one ounce of gold. Then in nineteen thirty three, I've talked about this extensively, because all the gold went into the bank, the government just took it all. They seized it all. They don't want to say they seized it. They bought it from you forcibly. What they did is they revalued it to now be thirty five dollars for one ounce of gold. You can see that twenty and then it was thirty

five this whole time. Now, this red line here is where we ended the gold standard and we no longer had relation to the price of gold. But the reason why I want you to understand this for right now is because at this time all the dollars in existence were divided by all the gold, and it was twenty dollars for every one ounce, and then it was thirty five dollars. So they printed way too many of them.

That's why they had to seize the gold. Then they took it was thirty five dollars for every one ounce of gold. You're understanding this, But again, in nineteen seventy one, we left the gold standard, and you can see by this chart right here is where we left. Now, what I did is I took a trend line, and you can see the trend line we were on. And if we hadn't left the gold standard here, we would have about this much money in circulation today. This is the

M two chart. This shows how much dollars are in circulation. Okay, so we would have about this much, but of course they would have needed to get more gold. But then nineteen seventy one we got a new trend line and that took us to hear right around here. In the year two thousand, we got a new trend line that takes us to here. Two thousand and eight, we got a new trend line that takes us to here. In twenty twenty, we have a new trend line. And look

at that trend that we're on. Here's the problem. They've added more of those paper currencies, but they didn't add more gold because of course we're no longer on a gold system, which is why you can see this right here. All right, But you have to understand this to understand where we're going. We had all the dollars in existence divided by all the gold, and that's gone. But that's the way it works, and we have to go back

to it. We are in a fifty two or in about a fifty two year experiment that's gone horribly wrong. I'll show you how it's gone horribly wrong in a minute. Okay, So now that you understand that, you hear a lot of people talking about maybe going back to the gold stand the rise of bricks. Bricks are going to launch their own gold back currency. You've heard me talk about that extensively. You have Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff talking

about we're going to go back to gold. And the reason why is because gold was money for five thousand years. For fifty years, we've tried this little fiat experiment. It's failed horribly wrong, and so the only way that governments will get trust back into fiat currency is to back it with something like gold. Again, you've heard that many times. So this is how this would work. Let me break

it down. In the United States, there's about twenty trillion dollars of currency of paper of fiat currency twenty tint the US supposedly, I don't know if I believe this holds eight thousand tons of gold. So then what you would do is you would take the eight thousand tons is two hundred and eighty two million ounces, So you take the twenty trillion divided by the two hundred and eighty two million ounces, and that would give you a new gold price of seventy thousand dollars per ounce of gold.

At the twenty dollars per ounce of gold up until ninety thirty three, the thirty five up to nine seventy one. That's how it worked. And to go back to a gold standard one hundred percent back this would be the new math. That's why goldbugs want this to go back to a gold standard, and they want to hold gold because they think they're two thousand dollars an ounce gold will go to seventy thousand ounce. It'd be pretty amazing if that happened, although Big one's going to do better.

I'll break the math down now. We also have to think globally, all right, because this is not just the US the US dollars, the global observe currency bus of the euro dollar going on, so we have to think globally.

So if we think globally, there's about eighty seven trillion dollars globally and about we don't really know because China doesn't really report it properly, but approximately one hundred and eighty seven thousand tons of gold in the whole world, all the gold in the world that's ever been brought above ground is still above ground. It's not really a consumable good. I think all the gold in the world fits in like a football field. It's not even that much.

One hundred eighty seven thousand tons, which is six billion ounces. So we take the eighty seven trillion dollars of currency divided by the six billion ounces would give us about a thirteen thousand dollars price per goal. Does that make sense? Okay? So now that we've gone through that math, you're ready to understand the next step in the process. Okay, So you remember we've made a couple of cases here. Gold was what we used to measure or price things in.

Wealth is goods and services, not gold. Wealth is the goods and services. The gold is what it was priced in, and so we had to divide the goods and services by the wealth by the gold. So now what other global assets are there? How do we measure how much goods and services are out there? How much wealth is out there? Well, there's a couple of ways we can look at this. All of these global assets are well, we're looking at the global assets right now for this

math in store of value assets. There's lots of assets, but we don't store our wealth in all types of assets. So, just for this exercise, being conservative, I know this sounds crazy, we're only looking at what we call store of value assets, things that you would put your money into such as gold is a store of value asset real estate. Sure, I have a house there, but I park my wealth in real estate as well, bonds, stocks, things like that. Okay, so if we look at that. Here's a chart from

Jesse Croasis. He did an amazing write up on this. We're going to link to it in the description down below if you want to read his rite up and break down of this. But we have store of value assets right here, gold, cars, other collectibles. So rich people buy really old collectible cars, things like that, they store their wealth in there. One of my buddies down the streets got a couple Mustangs that are worth millions of dollars.

Pretty cool, doesn't drive them fine? Art of course, stock market, right, we buy stock to put our wealth in their real estate, Like I said, not just your home, but other real estate that you invest in, bonds, and of course money. If we add those up, we have twelve trillion dollars in gold, six trillion in collectibles, eighteen trillion in fine art, one hundred and fifteen trillion, and you do the math. It totals nine hundred trillion dollars. If we add all

that up. Now again back to the uber example, uber is going to disrupt taxis, limos vans. What percentage do we think it can get from each of those markets? So conservatively, do we think bitcoin could capture fifty percent of the gold market cap? I think so, Golden Sacks, this is going to overtake it. So fifty percent. That puts bitcoin at six trillion, cars, other collectibles. It's not going to take the whole thing. People like cars, people

like collectibles, people like fine art. But could it take five percent? I think that's reasonable, fine art five percent, sure stock market fifteen percent, I think reasonable, real estate fifteen percent. Okay, bonds thirty percent, money thirty percent. That brings us to two hundred trillion dollars just at those levels, and this could happen over the next five, six, seven years. All right, I'll get more to the timeframe. We'll break this map down a little bit more. But that would

put it one bitcoin to ten million dollars. It's a big number, ten million dollars just forgetting these pieces. Now. We're not even adding all the other use cases, the money exchanging, we're not including all the technologies being built on bitcoin. We're just talking about store of value assets only, all right, so you can see that math. Now let's keep going here. Now, remember there's no such thing as certainties,

there's only probabilities. So is this a probable outcome? But what we do know is pretty much certain, ninety nine percent certain that FIAT is dead, FIAT is crashing. FIAT was an experiment. We're fifty two years into this experiment, five thousand years of using sound money, fifty two years of FIAT, and it's dead. It's over. There's pretty much no way I can continue from here. Like I said, they're going to have to figure out a way to bring some trust back into the system. So what options

do we have. Well, I did a video a couple months ago in Amsterdam, or I gave a talk at a conference in Amsdam a couple months ago. Let's go ahead and just play this clip so you can hear it. We can see this system is shifting. If you're paying attention, they're buying gold. The problem is that already failed before. We live in a information world today. We need money to transfer at the speed of our transactions over the internet,

and gold can't do that. Gold requires trust. Since gold can't transfer immediately, are someone to hold a ledger and if someone's holding the ledger, we must trust that person. But trust is lost. So if that doesn't work, if we don't go back to commodities, where do we go. Well, the next solution is central bank digital currencies, because that should fix everything. Right, The CBDCs seem to be the

next logical step. But the problem is I would call this not de evolution, I'd call it zero evolution because it's basically the exact same thing that we have right now. It still allows US central banks to print unlimited amounts of money. So if we have a problem of inless money printing, then we need to fix it. We need a solution that has a fixed supply, doesn't allow anybody

to have in this money printing. And in a multipolar world, whether we're no longer in the current monetary order or the current international order that we have today, a US led order with a US dollar reserve currency in a paper fiat monetary system, moving to a multipolar world, how does the world move forward when there is no trust? In a world where trust is gone, it's almost like

we need a decentralized ledger that's trust lists. And so in this new world order that we're going into, the question is left, if not bitcoined, then what all right, so you can hear from there like the options are one we go back to gold, but gold already failed because it's old technology. We live in a world of instant transactions and we need instant settlement, but gold can never do that without adding debt and adding trust in the system, which there is no trust in the system anymore.

So gold doesn't work. The other option is well, a CBDC, but that's basically still FIAT and the problem is the unlimited money printing in the debt, so that doesn't fix it either. So, as I put in the question at the end of debt presentation, if not bitcoined, then what So it's not guaranteed, but is it at least probable? Do you think there's a twenty percent chance that people move to it? I mean, we're certainly seeing that happen now. Is there a thirty, forty fifty percent chance. We'll come

back to that in a second. Let's look at some of the time frames that is happening on now. Remember I said this is an evolutionary process. One of the biggest problems that people have with understanding this is they expect way too much too soon. Imagine you and I walking through a forest of redwoods and we find this little tree like this big, and I'm like, oh my gosh, look at this little tree. Look how cool it is. Can you imagine that this tree one day is going to

be as big as these other trees? And You're like, Oh, that's stupid, Mark, that tree will never be that big. Look how small it is. How could it ever grow that big? And I'm like, but give it time, give it a couple decades. It's like it'll get there. Right. So you have to understand things take time, and there's an evolutionary path that things have to go down. Another image by chat GBT showing this evolutionary path. So what am I talking about? Let's take a look at this

evolutionary path. So remember, as I said money, If you study thousands of years of history of money, rocks, feathers, seashells, gold, you understand it. It was always emergent and it was always an evolution. Happens is it starts right here as a collectible. Oh this is a pretty cool rock. I think I'm going to keep it. It's a collectible. Oh look at this baseball card, This Pokemon card. I like this, I'll collect it. Now, there's a lot of things that become collectibles.

But if maybe, sometimes they could evolve to the next stage, which could become a store of value. So baseball cards are stores of value. Some people store millions of dollars in baseball cards, Pokemon cards, watches. Not all collectibles make the evolution to store value, but a lot do. Now if maybe, if they have the right attributes of money, portable, divisible, durable, recognizable, things like that, then maybe it could evolve to the

next stage from a store value to a medium of exchange. Okay, so now it's big enough, it's a big enough asset class, it's widely accepted, it has that right attributes, like I said, and now people use it as a medium exchange. And then maybe, if potentially, if it could, we could evolve to the next stage, which is a unit of account, which means everything's priced in that thing. Now. Right now, everything's priced in dollars. Oil's priced in dollars, gold priced

in dollars. Most of the world prices things in dollars because it is the currency of the world. Now some countries have other currencies, but you get my point. You're still pricing it in that currency. So this is the evolutionary path. I think we are somewhere right around here. We've already checked all these boxes and we have a little bit ways to go. Now, what time frame are we looking at? All? Right? I showed you the path. What is the time frame? Now? That evolutionary path doesn't

mean it's guaranteed. Remember life is about probabilities, but we can continue to watch that now over what time frame? Now, when you look back through technological revolutions, you realize they happen about every fifty years. You've heard me talk extensively about technology cycles. So this is a path. This is where bitcoin started right here, and we are sitting somewhere right about here right now, we're in this path. You're not too late. We still have all this to go

right here before we start to level out. And I think we really see all this happen by about twenty fifty. So I don't know where you're at in your stage of life right now. You could be alive to see this happen. Now, none of this is guaranteed, but this is the most probable outcome going back to old technology of gold or what that's the question, and you can see we're rapidly heading for this. Now we're literally living through this. We're literally watching this revolution. We're watching this

financial revolution cycle end right in front of us. Okay, great, So now you understand what it's attacking value itself. You understand that's the evolutionary path and what that process looks like. You understand the time frame. Now let's talk about the prices. Now. I talked about forty three billion, you know, in fifty sixty years from now, but where is it in a year from now, or four or five years from now,

seven or eight years from now. Let's talk about that for now, all right, So, how Finny was one of the main developers that developed bitcoin. He worked with Satoshi Nakamoto, which, yes, nobody knows who he is, but we know lots of the other helopers that worked on it with Satoshi, including howf any Adam back, Nigsabo, et cetera. So how Finnie was a developer. Now, back in two thousand and nine when it was released, we just got a whole bunch

of Satoshi's emails released to the public. We can see this was January tenth, two thousand and nine, and he said here announcing the first release of bitcoin. Pretty cool, but we can see through those emails. I sort of summarized it here so you can see it easier. How Finny predicted twenty two million dollar bitcoin. This was back in two thousand and nine when it was first released.

He said, not based on mere speculation, but rather on a thoughtful analysis of bitcoin's potential as a global payment system. So he back into the math sort of the same way I am. The collective value of bitcoin would align with the total wealth of the world. Wealth of the world divided by the asset unit of account, which he estimated to be within the range of one hundred trillion to three hundred trillion dollars. That was in two thousand

and nine. Today it's about nine hundred trillion dollars. By dividing this value among the limited supply of twenty one mister bitcoin, Finney came up with a twenty two million dollar price per bitcoin. That was in two thousand and nine, when it was first invented. You could have picked it up for a couple of pennies. But he saw that vision that we're rapidly heading towards. What about let's hear from Chamoth Chamoth is a prolific investor in Silicon Valley

early early, early into Facebook billionaire. Let's hear what he had to say Bitcoin that falls into that category, because that's what that is. Thirty nine thousand. Where's it going?

Speaker 2

I mean, can you play the clip in twenty twelve and thirteen when it was at two hundred and everybody was laughing at me on CFPC every time I would talk about bitcoin, where's it going? It's probably going to one hundred and one hundred and fifty, then two hundred thousand in what period I don't know, five years, ten years, but it's going there. And the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening, it just reminds you that, wow, our leaders are not as trustworthy

and reliable as they used to be. And so just in case, we really do need to have some kind of, you know, insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge.

Speaker 1

All right now, mind you, this video is from twenty twenty one, so he's talking about it going to one hundred, one hundred and fifty all the way up to a million dollars, which is certainly doing. He says a million dollars by twenty forty. That's the timeframe he's on. What else we have we have Fidelity. Fidelity is I think the second largest asset manager in the US. They do a lot of research on bitcoin. It's the second largest bitcoin etf They predict a billion dollars for one bitcoin

by twenty thirty eight, twenty thirty eight. The director of Global Macro Fidelity Investments thinks a single bitcoin could reach one billion by the year twenty thirty eight. A lot of what he's done is rooted and he's come up with this from a bunch of angles. Specifically, he says it's rooted in Metcalf's law, which is that a network continues to grow faster and faster and faster becomes more valuable.

And he says it will grow to about one million per bitcoin by twenty thirty so one million by twenty thirty, one billion by twenty thirty eight. Based off of that. Now fidealite, Like I said, they put out a ton of good research and data on this, one of which is this Metscalf's law, and you can see how this price arc is working. It doesn't go up hyperbolically forever. Right, it doesn't go up straight line. It starts to taper off,

but yet it still goes up. We have a million dollar bitcoin, you know, right about here, and you can see that. I'll have this other chart right here that I think is really good fidelity put together. You can get all this information directly off of their website. But

this shows the different analogs. So this is the price the bitcoin price arc right here, and I know for the bitcoin skeptics, I know it crashes, right, So it goes super high, and then it crashes all the way back down, and then it stays below the trend line. And then it goes super high, and then it crashes all the way down again, and it stays below the trend and it crashes. It goes super high, and it

crashes all the way down. Now some people go, well, why do wouldn't I just sell here and buy right here. Sure you can certainly try that, or you could just wait and sit and go along for the ride. Now, what about me, where do I think it's going to go? Well, I think a million dollars by twenty thirty seems pretty realistic to me. We'll see again in the world of possibilities and probabilities. I think it's highly probable we'll get there. It's certainly not guaranteed, which is why I don't put

one hundred percent of my money in. We'll come back to that in a minute. But I think in the next eighteen months one hundred to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars bitcoin is kind of what I'm thinking. That's a two to three x return from here. I don't know if any other asset I can put my money into right now today that can get me that type of return. So that's kind of what I'm thinking. All right. So now that you have this information, what are you going to do with it? What do you do? Well?

In the in the famous words of Satoshi Nakamoto, he said that it might make sense to get some just in case it catches on. So back to the world of probabilities, all right, Just like that show I told you I was watching, everything's a probability. So do you think that there is a fifty percent chance that bitcoin gets to one hundred and fifty thousand dollars in the

next two years? Okay, and it's at fifty thousand today, that's a two x upside with a one x downside, it's pretty good odds you have fifty percent conviction of that. How much money should put in? Maybe put in fifty percent, hold the other fifty percent you can average in so you can you can buy it. You should secure it and hold it, and you can either lump some in, you can put that money in, or you can dollar cost average in over time. So buy it. That's the

first thing. Do you have some do you have enough? How much should you have it? Bait depends off your conviction. Now what we're seeing Wall Street with the ETFs, we're putting two to five percent allocations in. You put two to five percent allocation in. Even if it drops by fifty percent, it's barely even going to be noticed. However, if it goes to where we think it can, then

your portfolio is going to be looking pretty dang good. Now, if you're crazy and you have a lot of conviction, like I do, you might want thirty, forty five, fifty sixty percent allocation to bitcoin. Now, it also depends on how much money you have, so those other factors you need to figure that out for yourself. Buy it, then you need to secure it and hold it. The revolutionary feature of bitcoin is that I can custody it and secure it and store it myself, and so you should

certainly do that. I recommend using a hardware wallet to do that. Plenty of help online. Check that Out'll go to BTC sessions on YouTube. He can show you how to do that. And then again, like I said, should I buy it now just throw my cash in as a lumpsum or should I average in over time? It depends on where your conviction is. But this video has gone long. That's about as much as I can put into it right now. But I'll make more videos. Let me know which of these you want me to dig

into more. Let me know what you think. Leave me a calmed down below. Subscribe if you're not subscribed, and that's what I got to your success, I'm out

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