Nation-State FOMO Is Here | And It Changes Everything for Bitcoin! - podcast episode cover

Nation-State FOMO Is Here | And It Changes Everything for Bitcoin!

Dec 19, 202425 min
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Episode description

What if I told you that no matter what you think about Bitcoin—whether you love it, hate it, or don’t understand it, you are completely underprepared for what’s about to happen next? Because this new bill, S.4912, is about to ignite a chain reaction that sends Bitcoin further and faster than most anyone can imagine, and This isn’t just a theory. It’s already in motion.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

What if I told you that no matter what you think about bitcoin, whether you love it, you hate it, or you don't even understand it, well, either way, you're going to be completely underprepared for what's about to happen next. Because there's a new bill S. Four nine one two, and it's about to ignite a chain reaction that sends bitcoin further and faster than most anyone can imagine. M This isn't just a theory. As a matter of fact,

this is already in motion. So in this video, I'm going to show you what this new bill is, how is going to change the global financial system forever, how a small nation's experiment gives us a glimpse of what's about to come, and why nation state FOMO is going to put us on a path to prices that make today's numbers look maybe laughable. Now real quick, my name is Mark Moss. I've been a tech focused VC investor for over a decade. I've been creating bitcoin educational content

since it was only three hundred dollars. Today, I'm a partner at a leading bitcoin VC hedge fund, and I coach business owners on investing, and I'm sharing some of the data that we use to make long term decisions. So let's go all right, let's break this down. Why, no matter how bollish you are, you're not bullish enough. And if you think this is some big joke in a scam, well you're also underprepared. So let's break this down. We're talking about S four nine one two. This is

a real thing. Now, let's rewind the clock. Just a few months ago, not too far back, before the presidential campaign ended and we still had a race going on. I was speaking at maybe the biggest conference in the world right now, at least probably the most culturally relevant event in the world. Over twenty five thousand people were there. Two presidential candidates, so at the highest level, Wall Street people, investors, coders, builders,

entertainers were all there. I'm talking about the Bitcoin Conference. I got to speak on the main stage about two hours before Trump was there, and at the time RFK Junior was still running for president. We had Trump was still running for president, and they both came there and basically laid out their plan to have a presidency for the US, a direction for the US that would be very bitcoin now. RFK Junior laid it out in very great detail. Trump gave a little bit more of a

vague overview of it. But now, of course they're together, working together, and basically what they said is they wanted to have a very pro bitcoin stands and part of that would be to have the United States establish a bitcoin reserve. Now since that's happened obviously, as I said, they both joined together the Trump administration one, and now they're working together to do this. But it's not a theoretical maybe we'll see it in a month or two

when it takes office. No no, no, no, we're talking about something that's already in place right now. I'm talking about again four nine to one two. As you can see, this is already in Congress. To understand this a little bit. At the same event at the Bitcoin conference, we heard Senator Senator Lemmas from Wyoming, Cynthia Lemmas. She actually laid this out. Let's hear from her real quick, to.

Speaker 2

Establish a bitcoin strategic reserve to ensure the transparent management a bitcoin holdings of the federal government. Over five years, the United States will assemble one million bitcoin, five percent of the world's supply.

Speaker 1

All right, So you heard it directly from her of what she wanted to do. And again this is not theory. This is in place right now. So let's pull this up. This is a bill that has been submitted already S. Four nine one two, and I want to show you just a little bit of what's in here so you can understand the mechanism and how this works. So it's

a bitcoin purchase program. And basically the way they're breaking this down is that the Secretary of the US shall purchase two hundred thousand bitcoins per year over a five year period. Two hundred thousand times five years is a million bitcoins. So they want to buy, they have the US buy a million and then hold that hold the bitcoin,

buy it, not try to sell it. Keep that there minimum holding period to ensure the long term stability and security of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve SBR, the Secretary shall hold all bitcoin acquired through the bitcoin purchase program for not less than twenty years twenty years stronghand Hoddler. Now there's precedence for this. Obviously. The US has strategic reserves of oil. For example, we talked about how Biden dumped the oil reserves to bring the price of oil down.

We have gold reserves obviously, So this is not unnatural at all. And what the President wants to do and Senator Limmis wants to do is basically bring bitcoin as a strategic reserve to match the gold reserve that we have and by doing this, put the US on a strong financial footing and potentially maybe even pay off the debt. Now that may sound crazy, but again maybe you're not thinking big enough. Let's talk about this for a second. Now does that seem possible. Well, let's just take a

look at a case study, shall we. Let's use some real factual stuff. As a matter of fact, I'm going to go back into history to show you some stuff. So hang on. You may think you know what we're talking about, but let me show you how big this is. So first off, let's start with a case study. Okay, Now, El salvad Or is a case today I want to

break down. We'll look at a more historical examples. But El Salvador in twenty twenty one decided to make bitcoin legal tender, accept bitcoin as legal tender, and not just to accept bitcoin as legal tender, but actually have the government buy bitcoin and put it on its books. Now, when El Salvador did this, most of the world ridiculed them, told them it was stupid, it was ridiculous in all these things. But let me just tell you something about

technology and people that think it's ridiculous. Now we can go back as far as you want to go, the term the Luedites. The Luedites were afraid of the power loom right, and every type of time there's new technology, people are afraid of it. In two thousand and one, after the dot com bubble had burst in two thousand, the next year, I decided to be a great Ida to start an e commerce business. Now wasn't easy, No Shopify, no Amazon. I had to hire a code or to

custom build this e commerce website, super clunky. And I went to these brands and I said, hey, I want to sell your products on my website. And they laughed at me. They told me no one would ever buy anything online. I said, well, I beg to differ. I'll give you the money. No big deal, and we don't even want our products being sold on the internet. Because it was sort of a joke after the dot com boom, and so the Ludites also said that El Salvador was

crazy for doing this. Well, jokes on them, because now we've seen the full benefit of this billionaire of venture capital. Investor Tim Draper recently said that earlier this week, Kim Draper claimed at a rally that on this Bitcoin rally, if bitcoin gets to one hundred thousand dollars, which it's almost there time this recording more a few thousand dollars away, Bitcoin would allow the country El Salvador to repay its

IMF loans and never have to talk to the IMF again. Now, the IMF gives money to countries to basically in debt them forever. There's a book written titled The Confessions of an Economic Hitman that sort of breaks all this down in great detail, and instead of allowing nations to get out of debt, they just give them more debt. But what Tim Draper's saying here is this move that El Salvador made could now allow them to pay off the IMF debt and never need debt again. Let's break down

the math. Claim sparked the discuss about how much debt El Salvador owns and how much Bitcoin can contribute to easy and it's burden. Now. Specifically, El Salvador owes one hundred and seven point seven million SDRs to the IMF, which are worth about one point three five usd apiece. So if we break that down, basically the country owes approximately eighty million dollars to the IMF. Now here's where the math gets interesting. So Al Salvador bought a bunch

of bitcoin and it's now going up in value. El Salvador claims to own five thousand, one, five thousand, nine hundred and thirteen almost six thousand bitcoin. Now currently this was written in when it was sixty seven thousand. Now we' over ninety thousand. But if bitcoin were to rally and hit Draper's one hundred thousand threshold, El Salvador would gain one hundred and eighty nine million from its holdings. So it gains one hundred and eighty nine but it only

owes eighty through the math. Okay, so now that sounds amazing, right, But here's the thing. In the world of game theory, you have to understand. The world is very competitive. Now, if you're a business, or you're a Wall Street fund,

or you're a nation, you're competing against others. Now, on Wall Street, if I were to do something different like bring gold into my portfolio or do high frequency trading or use bitcoin, and I would get ahead of other funds, and other funds would sort of be forced to copy a lot of what we're doing. And the same is true with nations. Now. The thing is with El Salvador is they are one of the poorest nations in the world, so they're not like a big influential nation. They're not

influencing the top countries, the G seven countries. If you will, you can see here on this chart right here that Al Salvador out of the North American countries, not the whole world, but the North American countries, it's about what is the fourth poorest country in the North American hemisphere, So it's not really influenced a lot of countries. However, given the pace study that El Salvare's have, other small nations are starting to pay attention, and not just a

couple as a matter of fact, it's a lot. So what we can see right here is that President Bouquetley of El Salvador with forty four countries. In May of twenty twenty two, Elsavadoro hosted a meeting with financial institution representatives from forty four countries. I'm not going to read them all to you. We'll link this in the show notes down below. Argentina visited in October of twenty twenty four, so just recently expressed interest in El Salvador's experience with bitcoin.

Other nations. Bhutan has put in over one billion dollars into bitcoin, so forty four nations, Argentina, Bhuton has already got a billion dollars. So El Salvador is influencing countries. This is happening that they've paid off the debt trap and now this gamble's paid off. Now. Of course, in the competitive world that we have in the world of game theory, like I said, competition's real. Other people are starting to pay attention. But again, El Savador's not very influential.

What if the most influential country in the entire world were to do this, of course we're talking about the United States. Now we'd see something very different if the US moves the US having the US dollar right reserve currency of the world, the global financial system of the world. If the US were to do this, which as I said,

it's already submitted, the bill's already there. We have a red Now, a Republican led Senate and House and presidency and there's a very strong chance this bill will go through. I'm going to show you why I think that in a minute. But if this happens, if the US moves, then the entire G seven, the top seven country of the world, the G twenty, the top twenty country of the world, would basically be pressured into this. Now this is not my speculative guess this, don't rely on me.

Let me show you the receipts. Let's look back in history. So there's a couple of times this has happened. Now for your history, buffs, you might know this, but there's been lots of money throughout the world, and at one point the world was on a silver standard, all right, but then the world started to transition from a silver standard to a gold standard. A small business owner, are you buried in all types of work keeping you from the real thing that makes you money? Well, that's where

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a gold standard. This was in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and it was a goold rush and a gold rush, and then each nation started to do this, and we can see here that Portugal quickly implemented the gold standard in eighteen fifty four. Germany had already started doing the gold standard as well. By eighteen seventy one, the US adopted the coinageac of eighteen seventy three. So by nineteen hundred most countries had begun using the gold standard except China.

This is a very key piece to understand here in the world of game theory. It's very important so the whole world started leaving silver to go to gold, as I said, but China decided not may doing that. We have a lot of silver, We're not going to trade it for gold. We're going to stick with what we have. The problem with game theory is they were left out. So there's a whole global financial system moved to gold. China was out, and they lost their position as a

global leader. Now I made a video a long time ago talking about how now China has been trying to get back to that position for about one hundred years and now maybe have cornered the gold market. But just as they've cornered the gold market, now the whole world is starting to shift again, or it could if this happens, then I'm going to show you that. Now again, it's not just gold. Game theory is real. Let me give

you a couple other historical examples. So here we have the space So when the US and Russia were in this Cold War, they were both rushing to get to space, to who could get up satellites and things like that, who could control space. Now we see the space race was a competitive competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. It began in nineteen fifty five when the Soviet Union responded to the US's announcement to launch artificial satellites.

So it was a race who's gonna win this, and the first mover, of course, always has the advantage. There was no set rules at first, but President Kennedy, and this is a key piece here, there are no set rules for this at first, but somebody threw down the gauntlet. That was President Kennedy. He set a clear goal for the US, which was land demand on the Moon before the Soviets, sort of like the President now is also thrown down the gauntlet and said, we have a clear

plan to establish a reserve of one million bitcoin. Once it's down, it's laid out on paper. Now it gives people a target. So once that happened, then the race was on and we can go back. I'll give you one more example. We can go all day on this. We can also see the same thing happened with nuclear So there was the United States versus the Soviet Union, which is called the prisoner's dilemma, which is basically this nuclear arms race. So we're trying to build up our

armies as fast as we can. But basically it caused both nations to pour trillions of dollars and resources into manufacturing nuclear weapons. And the reason why this is the prisoner's dilemma. It's basically a situation showcasing why two players may act selfishly, even if acting selflessly appears to be in their best interest for the two options. And so that's exactly what's happening. We've seen this happen over and over and through history. We understand incentive mechanisms, we understand

game theory. So that's why this is not speculation. The gauntlet has been thrown down, the bill is put forward, and the chance of it going through is extremely high. And now every nation is trying to figure out, well, who's gonna move first and how fast are they going to move? Now, the interesting thing to understand about this is that this is all I'm all creating what I'm

calling sovereign fomo. Right, each sovereignation has fear of missing out, And we have sovereign fomo where demand is going parabolic, but it's going into an immovable object or basically a fixed supply. So the thing with commodities so oil, uranium, copper, silver, et cetera. The thing with commodities and bitcoin as a commodity is that it's unlike an equity. We set the

price of a commodity based off of supply and demand. Now, the supply of oil is it's very hard to dictate, right, I mean, we have all these different nations pumping in different schedules and different timeframes. But with bitcoin, we have a fixed supply twenty one million, so it takes the supply side out of the equation. So all we have to really pay attention to is the demand side. So we know that, like I said, bitcoin has twenty one million.

Now here's where things get interesting. Let me break down a little bit of math for you. So here's just two buyers. Now, I've done videos talking about Michael Sailor and micro Strategy. I talked to about the infinite money glitch. Maybe we can link that video in the show note down below you should understand what Michael Sailor micro Strategy is doing. But here we have some math. So there, right now, we have about one hundred and sixty four

thousand bitcoin being produced per year through mining. One hundred and sixty four thousand per year. Now, per Michael Sailor, they plan micro Strategy plans to buy one hundred and seventy five thousand bitcoin per year for the next three years. Just one company, just one then, Senator Lumus is built in the United States government says they want to buy two hundred thousand bitcoin per year. So just two people, just the US and micro Strategy planned to buy three hundred

and seventy five thousand bitcoin per year. The problem is there's only one hundred and sixty four thousand being created per year, which means there's way more demand there supply. Now, this is just two buyers. This is not accounting for the sovereign FOMO that's about to happen. And now you can start to see how quickly this can run away. Now, let me show you a couple other things. Now we can see right here, this is bitcoin on the exchanges.

So this gold line is the bitcoin price, and this green line is the amount of bitcoin that's available to buy currently on exchanges. And you can see as the price goes up, the available bitcoin in the ecosystem to buy right now is going down. Now, there's always going to be bitcoin to buy, So for everybody that's gonna go yeah, then everyone's going to hoard it and all these people that get a first move advantage, lucky for them. No, there's always going to be bitcoin available at the right

price supply and demand. That's how this works. But we can see how this is already set in the stage for fomo. Now we can look at this charge, which I think is pretty interesting, and this shows the amount of bitcoin addresses that have at least one bitcoin in them. And what we can see is there's about one million addresses wallets that have one bitcoin in them. Now, let's think about this for a second. In the United States,

there's about twenty two million millionaires. Twenty two million people have at least a million dollars, okay, but there's only twenty one million bitcoin, and only one million so far have even one bitcoin. In the world, there's about sixty million millionaires and there's only twenty one million bitcoin. Do the math. You can see. And now this is not accounting for the micro strategies and all the other corporations coming on board. It's not accounting for the sovereign phone.

Well that's about to happen. And what this does is it sets a floor on the price. Okay, so this is very interesting. So when you think about buyers, whether it's me or you or maybe a hedge fund. Right, you're like a price conscious buyer. I want to buy on dips. The price goes up, maybe I'll sell a little bit. I won't sell a little bit, but I'll certainly buy on dips. I'm trying to sort of trade around and find the right price floor. But some buyers,

like nations, for example, are not price sensitive. So Michael Sailor with micro Strategy, for example, is not price sensitive. They just bought. Micro Strategy just acquired another two billion dollars worth of bitcoin just a week ago at eighty thousand, and he says he's going to continue to buy every top along the way, So no matter what the price is, they just buy on a regular basis that allar cost averaging in nation states are very similar. They will just

continue to buy. They're not trying to trade around the price. So what that does is it sets a floor. So we have nations who are not pro sensitive. Corporations like micro Strategy are not pro sensitive, and they're buying more than is being produced, So that means there's more demand a floor of more demand than there is available supply, which is pretty interesting and as I said, we know there is certainly not enough to go around. So what does all that mean? What does that mean for us?

What does that mean for us whether we think we're bullish on bitcoin or using bitcoin is stupid and ridiculous. Either way, let's show you what this means. So what happens is Bitcoin sort of moves in these cycles. Right, Nothing's ever gone up in a straight line. There's never been an asset that's gone up in a straight line. And so we have peaks, and we have valleys, and a new peak in a valley, and it sort of works like that. Now, as this goes up, it sort

of moves in this line. But we have a high point and a low point where this could be. So if this goes through, I believe we'll be on the high side. I'll show you what the high site is in a second, but let's just talk if if this

goes through. So what we can see is we already know the bill has already submitted, We know that we have a Republican bill by with a Republican president and a Republican Senate and a House, the chance of this going through is extremely high in my view, And we can see that Senator Lumpus is already saying that this bill could maybe should pass in the first one hundred days of being president. So this puts us into the end of Q one next year. All right, get ready

the end of Q one. Now she's already talking about maybe we need to get this done in sixty days or even thirty days of the presidency. We don't know how fast it is gonna happen, but probably within one hundred days is what they're looking for. Now, is that realistic? Well, we know that it's not just the US. Remember, the US will influence everybody else. So now we have independent states in the United States who are already doing the

same thing. For example, just this week we saw Pennsylvania introduces the same bill where Pennsylvania as a state wants to move a bunch of their money their treasury indo bitcoin. As a matter of fact, they want to move seven hundred million into bitcoin. And this is through bipartisan support. Is not a Republican thing. This is Republicans and Democrats

both want to do this. And so even if even if it doesn't go through the House or through the government, through the United States government on the first try, even if it doesn't. It's not my base case. We still have states moving to do this on a bipartisan level, and we know that it'll come back through. Now, even if this bill were to fail, it looks like Trump could still do it even without this bill. Another way, Trump could put billions into the US Bitcoin reserve without

Congress's approval. David Bailey talks about how ten billion we put into a reserve before needing to get Congress's approval for funding. So President Trump could potentially already move this way even if it fails, because there's lots of ways you can do it, and we have this controlled House. So again, my probability is there is an extremely high probability this goes through again within the first hundred days of the presidency. And again I'm not the only one

seeing this. Other nation states are watching this, and other nation states are already trying to FOMO in and that's why you're starting to see the price go up, but you're not ready yet. Now let's think about this again. So you can see the price goes up and down and up and down and up and down and up

and down, but it moves in this range. And so we have a high part of the range, and we have a low part of the range, and so we can look at if we follow this same trend, what would be the high end the low that we could expect in the future. Let's just look one year out, So by the end of twenty twenty five, potentially we can be as low as ninety six thousand. So right now we're about ninety so we'd be a little bit higher,

about ninety six. That'd be the low end. The high end would be five hundred and eighty four thousand per bitcoin that'd be at the end of next year. Depending on this range, this channel that we've been in now, given the institutional fomo and now the sovereign fomo that's happening, I'm betting that we're going to be much more on the high end of that now. If we look out to twenty thirty, which us through another having cycle, another

liquidity cycle, the high and the low. The low is three hundred and sixty five thousand by twenty thirty, and the high would be five million. I don't think it's going to be anywhere in near that high. My numbers are much lower than that, but even still, it's going to be enormous but we really can't say. Because when we have this sovereign fomal coming in who are not price countess buyers, and they all want to get their bags full into an asset that has very very limited supply,

the price can move really fast, as we've seen. We saw almost a ten thousand dollars move just the other day. So what do we do about this? Even if you think this is ridiculous, as Satoshi told us, you might want to get some just in case it catches on. So how do we do that? We can either DCA dollar cost average in this is sort of what MicroStrategy is doing. They just buy on a regular basis, regardless of what the price is, so you get paid every

two weeks. You can put a little bit of your paycheck in every single two weeks, maybe every month, every quarter or whatever that is. Or you could just lump some like, hey, I'd like to move five percent of my portfolio in. I think five percent is sort of the minimum that you should have. Paul Tudor Jones legend on Wall Street says five percent, and so maybe I say, hey, I'm gonna move five percent over and let's just move that right now. So that'd be like a lump sum

or I could just move in regularly. Now, I'm not going to spend time going into this. If you want a video on this, I can. Once we started buying it, then where do we buy and how do I take custody? Do I want to take personal ownership and secure this on my own or do I want to leave it an ETF or leave it on an exchange like coinbas or Gemini. That's a whole another topic. If you'll make a video on that, leave me some comments down below. We can do that if you want. But as I said,

you are not prepared for where this is going. And if you want to know what else is fueling this, again, not just sovereign fomo, but we also have to understand the debt cycles, liquidy cycles, then you might want to watch this investing black hole video right here. And that's what I got, all right, to your success, I'm out,

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