Mark Talks Crypto With James Lavish

paints a very clear picture. Of course, technology changes the way the world works, change the way we organize and communicate, and of course the technologist driving change is Bitcoin, the decentralized protocol that's changing the world. You know. I like to bring to you some education so you can learn to look at these situations differently. So latest breaking news and of course some interesting guests. You don't have to listen to me talk all the time. And that's what

I got for you today. I am sitting down with returning guest and a good friend, James Lavish, and we are coming to you from Jackson Whole, Wyoming, where we are here for a Bitcoin ski Week. Pretty fun event. James, thanks for taking the time sit down with me. Yeah, of course, thanks for having me. Mark. Always good to talk to you. I know, I pulled you out of those means over there anything good going on over there today? All I could say is there's a lot of signal here.

I mean, it's like the exact opposite of the FED meeting in the spring, right, Yeah, Yeah, we have what's been imposed is Chatham House rules, which means sort of like fight club first rule about fight clubs. Don't talk about fight club and so we're not supposed to talk

about what's going on in there. You know, we kind of have this privacy as a couple hundred people of some of the you know, movers and shakers in the industry would just say that, and so we kind of have this, We have this kind of privacy things we can't really talk about what's going on, but there is a lot of signal, you know. It's it's good to see all the things that are being developed and built

and kind of see the progress that's going on. But I think, you know, I gave a talk yesterday at TVP, which is a channel Venture Partners is a venture capital fund, and they wanted me. They told me what they want me to talk about, and they said it was the uncertainty of the global macro economic picture and I gave a talk and I said, you know what, you wanted me to talk about the uncertainty, but I'm want to talk about the certain of the act the macro economic picture.

I see where you're going, you know, I said, I want to talk about the certainty of that. And so I said, you know, there's no sustaining as life as certainties. There's probabilities, but this is about as close to probabilistic certainty that we have. And so I gave this kind of talk, which mirrors a talk that you gave it in Cabo a few weeks ago. And I started off first because I was talking to this room of VC sorry venture capitalist investors as well as developers building on that,

and I said, what are we all doing here? Are we building a road to nowhere? Like okay, we're building all this stuff, but like will it go anywhere? And so let's talk about the certainty of that. And so, like I said, I used some of the couple data points that you you had given in that talk. I started with talking about how the FED has been fighting inflation, and they went from not thinking about thinking about raising raids too. Then it's going to be transitory to oh, crap.

We have a problem, and now they're committed to crushing demand to bring inflation down. But the problem is they haven't brought inflation down and instead they've crushed the treasury. Yeah, is that kind of what was happening here? That's absolutely fair. I mean, look that the US is not alone. All sovereigns, all FIAT backed by sovereigns they have, they have a

debt problem, they have they have a spending problem. But if we just focusing on the US, you know, the issue is that quite honestly, exactly what you said is this is a certainty. And the if if the United States Government, if the Treasury was a public company trading on the New York Stock Exchange, we would define it as a zombie company. And the reason for that is that they do not generate enough revenues, okay, to pay off the debt that they have on their balance sheet.

They don't generate enough revenue annually to pay the interest on their debt. The only way for them to pay that interest off and pay that that gap off is to issue more debt, which only makes the problem worse. It's a zombie company. If they would, they would be rated junk status and h and be struggling to issue that debt. Now you should that they don't make enough revenue to cover the interest on the debt. They make enough revenue if they didn't pay other expenses. Well, well,

first you'll agree with me on this. The US government doesn't really make any revenue. They collect it. They collect from the productive citizens of the United States, right, so now they're collecting these revenues through taxes and uh. And it's exactly what you said. And so basically if you look at and you break it down there, you know there's three main mandatory expenses that you have for the for the US treasury. One of them is your your entitlements,

which is like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and all that. Well, that adds up to three point eight tillion dollars okay annually. And this this just came out in a credit in a that's mandatory expensive. These are this is mandatory, they're signed into legislation. This is this just came out in the in the Congressional Budget Office, and they put out

a report um semi periodically. Just a couple of weeks ago, they put out the report that that defines what their projections are and let me let me say these projections are they're they're pretty optimistic. Yeah, as bad as they are. They're super optimistic, which is super troumbling. So the government's report, the CBO, Congressional Budget Office, this is the government's own report, right, So it's super troubling. Right. So okay, so you got

three point eight million trillion dollars of entitlements spending. That's that's written into law for this year. That's money they owe to people. That's a retirement pensions, Medicare, Medicaid, yeah, and expected unemployment costs all that, right. And then you've got eight hundred billion dollars of defense spending. And this is what has been earmarked for defense. This isn't including any extra expenses for Ukraine or anything else that's going on, right,

So this is just marked for it. But those are long term contracts. They can't get out of them. They have to pay them, right. So that's the second thing. So now we're at what four point six trillion dollars. Then you've got what they expect to be this year. Remember this is this was just put out and they expect the net interest to be seven hundred billion dollars

on the debt that the Treasury has has issued. So so the government owes thirty one and a half trillion dollars to the FED, and they have to pay interest on that thirty one and a half trillion. Yeah, and to the Fed, and and to private citizens, to whoever is exactly so. And so now now add that all up, and we're at five point three trillion dollars of expenses. What does the US Treasury expect to take in in in tax revenues this year four point eight trillion. So

you don't have to be a math genius. And as our good friend Greg Foss likes to say, it's it's not even a great eleven math. This is like great four math, right elementary school. These are mandatory expenses. So then when you add in all the other expenses on top of it, so you're at you're at a five hundred billion dollar hole. But when you add in all the other expenses market you're at one point four trillion.

That's expected this year. We're expected to to to have a deficit of one point four trillion dollars then, and that's based off of their expectations of how much money they expect or I should say hope and pray to receive exactly. And so that's also based off of the interest being what it is and not going to higher.

That's right, that's right. And so but when you when you when you add in certain when you add in certain adjustments and UH and programs and UH, and then you add in the major problem is what you what you defined before, is that the Fed is putting the Treasury in a very difficult position. Why is that, Well, the Treasury issues their debt okay, at um, and we have about thirty one point five trillion dollars outstanding and to keep it simple, about fifth percent of that debt

is being retired in the next one to three years. Okay, So what does that mean, Well, that that debt matures. Well, how do they that matures then, because because for everyone listening, what that means is that the debt isn't just all owed next year or in thirty years. It's six months, two years, five years, ten years, thirty years, etc. Different maturity. And as it matures, they have to give the debt owner, the one who bought the debt, they have to give

them the principal back. Well, the Treasury doesn't have that money, So what do they do to give the principal back. They issue more debt, so essentially they're replacing that old debt with new debt. The problem is the interest rates on the new debt are about three to four percent

higher than the old debt. So it is creating this massive hole in the balance sheet of the treasury because now that now they are owing way more interest than they owe just last year because of the higher interest cost on the new yet so it just becomes a self fulfilling spiral. It's called the debt spiral. And this is what we're in. If you're just tuning in, you're listening to the Mark Moss Show, coming to you from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I'm sitting down with James Lavish. You

can check him out on Twitter at James Lavish. Check out the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund as well. You can google that. We're talking about the inevitability of what's going to happen with the global macroeconomic picture, some of the interesting stuff. You don't want to miss this. We're gonna uncover this and unpack it more. Don't go away, We're gonna be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tuning in.

You are listening to the Mark Moss Show. Of course, we're always talking about the decentralized revolution, and right now we're talking about the way the money is decentralizing because it's breaking up hearts as the FED is trying to crush inflation. It's going nowhere, but instead they're crushing the government. I'm sitting down with James Lavish. You can check him out on Twitter at James Lavish. Also he writes an amazing newsletter, The Informationist. It's free. I think you still

have a free version. There's a free version. There's a free version. You should definitely check it out, packed with information. Check that out and check out the Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund as well. But James, so we are going through basically how the treasury has to pay interest on the debt. But some of the interest is some of the debt needs to be rolled over or turned over in the next year, and someone has to be in thirty years.

But the problem is when does it have to be refinanced and at what rate and what will that do to the amount that's owed. Exactly, So, the current yield on the average yield on all the treasures that are outstanding right now is one point seven percent. As you retire that debt which was issued most of it was issued earlier, which means it's lower rate. Okay, so it's under that average. Well, fifty percent of that matures the

next three years. You have to replace that with new debt, and now you're talking about replacing it somewhere between three and a half and five percent. Problem, let me ask you a question about that. First of all, fifty percent in the next three years sounds really bad. What's even worse is it's thirty percent in one year. Yeah. Now, when you say it has to get it'll get a new rate of between three and a half to five percent. Will it be at the rate of what the Fed

funds rate is? So right now it's going to be five percent. Where do you get to three and a half to five Yeah, exactly. So the short term, you know, anywhere from three months, six months, one year, two years would be much higher rates. And then as you go flurt the route you go to the five year, ten year. Okay, they're at they're at lower rates. So but it's and here's the problem, to simplify it for everyone, It's like

a single parent who is has their mandatory expenses. You've got your more reagi, get your car payment, You've got food you've got to put on the table for the kids. You've got to pay your energy bill. You want to keep the heat on. These are things that you have to pay. Right. So, if you're if you're working two jobs, you don't have any more time to work and you're just not meeting the margin, what do you do? Well, you take out a credit card. And it's an obvious thing,

you know. So you take out the credit card and you start charging food and some gas and other expenses on your credit card. And let's say hypothetically that's you get like this introductory low interest rate, and then the low interest rate goes away, and suddenly it spikes up from zero percent or five percent up to you know, you're seventeen eighteen, twenty two, twenty eight percent, right, okay?

So and then eventually your interest payments on that credit card are so big that now you've maxed out that credit card, and you what do you have to do? You take out another credit card, and it happens, and then you take out another credit card. The problem is as you take out more and more credit cards. Your credit score goes down, the interest rate on all those credit cards goes up, the problem comes becomes worse, and that's the debt spiral. That's simply what we're doing the

United States. And I'm not saying that the United States is going to go it's going to go bankrupt, and I mean it is bankrupt, but it's not it's not going to disappear the default. It's not paying. Yeah, it's not going to default. You can't. It wouldn't default because we can print our own money and we can buy our own bonds. And that's the inevitability. And that's the inevitability.

So that's the point, right. So I saw I saw President Biden or whoever writes his tweets I think it was yesterday, said the US has never defaulted on its debt. Let me be clear, you know, we're not going to default. We're gonna get this debt ceiling raised or whatever, something to that effect. I don't remember exactly. And I was going to reply to it, actually, I might started saying to my drafts, but I was like, someone should probably tell him, maybe he maybe just tell him that they

have we have defaulted. Yeah, that's what I was gonna say, like, hey, someone should probably tell him, like we've already actually defaulted, Like if you have to take on more debt to pay old debt, like I thought that was like a Ponzi or something. You kind of like that. Yeah, So,

I mean it's pretty simple. You operating a deficit, You issue debt to cover that deficit at higher interest rates, causing larger deficits, leading to more debt, leading to higher interestry payments, leading to larger deficits, and then more debt. It's just a spiral you can't get out of. And that's where we are. So so to frame this up, the inflation got out of control, so the FED decided to jack the rates higher and faster than timent history.

They've done that, and they haven't really had much of an effect on inflation, but with the interest rates going up so high, they have caused the treasure to pay more interest on the debt, which they can't afford to do. On top of that, and I don't think you talked about this yet, I mean, but on top of that, by what they're trying to crush demand. What they've done is trying to crush demand, make people poor and they've

done a pretty good job with that. And when people are poor, then they don't spend as much, which means there's not as much tax income coming into the treasury. Right, and that's exactly right. So as we're seeing some indicators and they're kind of mixed. But when if you if you tighten credit enough, you will run into an issue

where you're going to go into a recession. It means that your your productivity contracts, which means that you're the revenues generated for the company's contract and the multiples on those securities that trade, and the stock market contract. Everything just feeds on itself and so it just equals less tax revenue for the government. Okay, So again, like what

are their choices? What can they do? They're trying to get inflation down because they can't let it get out of control because if inflation is out of control then and what what sane investor is going to buy a bond that's based in a in a currency that's deflating, inflating, meaning it's debasing um in perpetuity and at a rate that it just doesn't make sense. It's it's called a negative interest rate, a negative real rate. So but what are their choices, like, what are the what are the

government's choices? Right, So you can either have austerity, yeah, which means live on a budget, live within your means. Right, so you can cut programs, you can cut spending, you can cut government spending. That's a political suicide. Noe. Neither party is going to do that, you know, both parties going to try to get the other one to do it. It's a trick, you know, um no, no, no one's ever going to be elected running on a campaign to

take money away from people. Correct. And or you could raise taxes also not you know, politically it was only so high. You can go exactly and a fifty percent about it, and then the people revolt. People revolt, and it actually ultimately worsens your It lowers GDP, it impacts your productivity negatively, and so you get the same result.

You're going to have lower tax revenue. And or there's a third option is issue more debt, which is the obvious one, which which is what we've been doing, debasement. But there that's the fourth option. Right, So the fourth option is to two one one is the default, right, or you're not going to default, right, you're going to issue more debt. Okay. So, but and then one derivative from that is your point is debasement, which is allow inflation to run hotter than they admit to. Imagine that

you know, the CPI. We've seen how the CPI is is has been You've done videos about that. Sow the CPI is manipulated. How they're kind of lying about how much, um, how they just change the way they calculated. They're kind of hiding how much. But the point is that it allows them to generate a GDP, generate revenue that the government can collect taxes on that's at a higher It's just it's just more dollars, right, because it's inflated. And then they pay down old debt, that debt that they're

paying down there, they're paying down old debt with cheaper dollars. Yeah. So it's it's called debasement, and it's called inflating away the debt. And they're going to do this for as long as they possibly can. And that's the point that why this all matters is that money is being taken out of people's pockets every day in order to keep this ponzi going. Period. Yeah, why does it matter. That's like always a question I try and come back to and to me, why it matters is trying to get

the direction right. Trying to get the direction right because I think if we zoom out, we'll figure that out. Oh man, there's so much to dig into. I can't wait to dig in more. If you're just tune in and you're listening to the Mark Moas Show, I'm sitting down with James Lavish. Check them out on Twitter at James Lavish and check out Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund for more info there as well. I want to dig into some of the constraints and the walls that we're gonna hit.

We're already seeing that a whole lots of unpack. We're gonna be back with more in a minute. Don't go away, We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, you are listening to the Mark Moss Show, I'm sitting down with James Lavish and we are talking about the certainty in life. There's no such thing as certainty. Is there's probabilities, but the probability is very high that we know which direction we're going. And we're talking about that.

You know, as we break this down, just kind of think about, like we're trying to think about the direction things are going. So this doesn't tell us what's going to happen next week or next month, but I feel pretty good about what is going to happen over the next five years. Right, And so the longer you zoom out, I think that the clearer the picture gets. And so we want to be right directionally, So just kind of

think about that. And I think it's also one reason why you see even though Jeroan Powell keeps going, hey, markets, you don't understand pain, pain, pain, We're gonna crush you. We're gonna come down. But the markets are like, yeah, right, we know where that limit is. And so every time time um inflation comes in hotter than they expected it too, it's more sticky than they wanted. The unemployment rate is

staying low, wages are staying high, all these things. All the people on TV are like, well, higher, they got a high higher higher, higher, for longer higher. It's like this parrot, right, higher, higher, higher, But like how high and how long can it really go? That's right? I mean, if they can. There's a lot of calls that have been going around over the last number of months, and and you hear Chairman Powell talk about he's kind of invoking them the Vulcar era, and he's going to be

Vulcar like. He's kind of wants to embody that he's wants to be seen as the hawk that that tamed inflation. And the reality is that was at a time where debt to GDP was a fraction of what it is now, right, So what does that mean? That means that our debt was thirty percent of our GDP now it's one hundred and thirty percent. So he can't he literally cannot do that without distres drawing the treasure. We would have to we would have to debate so rapidly, we would have

to print so much. He can't do that because of exactly what we just said. Raise if you raise rates, okay, if you raise rates to ten percent or twelve percent or fifteen percent, there's no way you could get to twenty percent. It's just not it's it's mathematically um it's a mathematical suicide for the currency. We would we would destroy the currency. So again, what's their choice just to just to keep inflation running a little bit hotter? Than

they may want to admit to. Maybe a lot hotter, maybe a lot hotter, and uh and and inflate away that debt. That's that's what it is. But look, Mark, we have we've raised the debt limit twenty two times since nineteen ninety seven, and we're gonna do it again. We're gonna do it again and again and again. That's an absolute certainty. We're gonna keep doing it. The Treasury put out a chart. It's crazy. This is the craziest thing.

They actually put out a report recently. And the report was it was titled um uh, it was titled an Unsustainable Fiscal Path. Yeah, the US Treasury put this out and they put out this this um this chart of what they what they think the percentage of debt um held by the public is going to be right, And uh, it looks like a hockey stick. As a percentage of GDP, it looks like an absolute hockey stick. So like when you get in out to years twenty, twenty fifty, twenty sixty,

it's like we're nearing a thousand percent. They're expecting the debt, the debt to just keep going and it's goes straight up. It's it's actually it's unnerving to see that they First of all, they that they admitted it. They see it, they know it. But this proves that they know there's just no way out. They as there's just no way out, and so eventually the US will likely be the last currency to fail. But this just there's just no way for them to get out of this problem. Yeah, so

and a couple other things. So there's no way to get out of the problem. The only way they can keep service in the debt is to take on more debt. Biden tweets as much they I mean, he says it in his tweets that they put their reports out and they tell us that, So like, this is not James and I sitting here and we're thinking speculation. This is

what they're saying. And this is the math, right, And then you throw in things like well, printing more money causes inflation, so there's gonna be more inflation, and they're having to print at the same time, which is a problem. But then if we even look globally, and the one thing I want to jump from is that, and I think you had talked about this. This is not just a United States problem. This is a global problem. Yeah, right, all the governments of the world, in central banks of

the world are in the same basic predicament. Yeah, I mean you can see the cracks appearing all over the place, Like Japan. Japan's an interesting one because they they've they've been they've been running a high debt to GDP for a very long time. They have a different decker demographic. Theyre a net exporter, we're net import It is a different beast. However, what they've been doing recently is they've been trying to get inflation hotter. Well why are they

doing that? They keep saying, we need inflation, we need inflation, we need inflation. Well, because their debt to GDP is two hundred and fifty percent already. Remember US is only running about one hundred and thirty percent. There's two hundred and fifty already, only one hundred and thirty. Really, the the kill zone if you're a climbing Mount Everest, I think they call it the kill zone if you could go above it, and the kill zone is like ninety percent.

So we're way above the kill zone. Yeah, way above so um. But in Japan, they they've had they've gotten to the point where they're they're holding their ten year treasury at at a fifty basis point yield, which means that they're standing there and buying as many treasures as anybody's selves to be sure that that interest rate doesn't go over fifty basis points. So they're monetizing their own debt. What are they doing. They're printing in and buying bonds.

And now the Bank of Japan is the largest owner of all issued jgbs Japanese government bonds in the world. Yeah, so if we look at it like the globe, the globes having the same problem. And then if you look at this, then we have wars going everywhere. So now the US is trying to get into war with China and Russia and Ukraine, and war is very inflationary. Supply

chains breakdown even more. And I wouldn't say that most of our inflation that we had is not demand side, which is why the Fed's losing its supply side, and so war is going to create more problems and supply side, it's also going to create more demand as well. Right, So, now we saw the US doesn't have enough communitions for one week in the Taiwan straight and so we were running out of munitions to send the Ukraines. We have

to resupply. And I think what we're seeing is Zoltan Posar had this theory of going back to this commodity based money, and so where people don't want to hold dollars, they want to rather hold the commodities in the ground. I saw this week Russia said they're going to reduce their oil production because they'd rather keep the oil in the ground. It makes sense, and that pushes the price

of oil up, which is more inflation. Yeah. Energy, like every all productivity relies on energy, right, Um, we go, just put it all the pieces together. Debt in itself is not inherently bad. You can pull future productivity into the now. But when you when you issue too much debt and again you get over your ski tips as we say, um in the investment world. Then I'm a dirt biker. We say over the handlebars, and you get over there. You go. I like that even better, you

get over your handlebars. And but that's the problem. Um and uh so yeah, so that that and they're they're in lies the issue, right, So exactly what you're saying, Ludwig von Misas arguably the godfather of the Austrian school

of economics. He calls it the crack up boom, and he says, and then suddenly everybody realizes inflation is both intentional and permanent, and then nobody wants it, and so they're quickly trying to exchange it for goods and services as fast as they can, and that leads to this hyperinflationary boom. And so I think we're seeing that. You know, back to Russia, they'd rather keep the oil on the ground. Central banks bought the most gold on record last year.

So the last couple years have been buying more than since nineteen twenty one. No, now they bought the most on record. General Motors invested six hundred and fifty million in the US lithium. Mind, they'd rather have the lithium in the ground than the money Volvo did, LG did. And so this is like a really really really strong trend that's happening. Now. I want to kind of talk about what do we do about all this? What do we do about it this? So the first thing is

if we look at a couple of examples. I use this chart in my in my presentation yesterday. If you look at the Zimbabwe stock market from twenty twelve to twenty twenty. It kind of it kind of meandered down a little bit and then it shot up like a skyrocket. We know if if the Turkish lira has lost eight ninety percent of its value to the US dollar over the last five years. So if we were in Turkey five years ago, if we had a time machine, what would we have done, Yeah, you buy your turket stocks.

We would have not wanted to hold Turkish lira. We would have wanted to get into something else, and then maybe we'd want to take debt. Yeah, exactly. So then you would go, well, the well, I'm gonna tell you the rest. We gotta take a break. I'm gonna leave you on a cliffhanger there. We're gonna talk about what we should do with the benefit of hindsight and what options and opportunities we have available to us today. If you just tune in and listening to the Mark Moas Show,

I'm sitting down with James Lavish. Check him out at James Lavish and I'm at one Mark Moss check us out. Check out Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund for more info on that. We're gonna be back with more and tell you what we should do with the benefit of hindsight. Will be back with all that and more in a minute. Don't go away, We're back, all right, Welcome back. If you just tune in, you're listening to the Markmas Show and you have missed a lot, so you better go back

and listen to it on the podcast. Just search Mark Mos Show on your favorite podcast player, or go to the Market Disruptors YouTube channel and you can come out

over there. I'm sitting down with James Lavish when we're talking about the inevitability of the global financial system, the United States and every other government, and I was making the case what we want to do is we want to look at other experiences where we were in a similar time frame, or other time frames where we're in a similar experience, and what we would have done with

the benefit of hindsight. And so we see the Turkish lira over the last five years lost ninety percent of its value, So we would have not wont to hold Turkish lera. We'd rather hold like US dollars, and so we don't. Now today we can see the US dollars lost sixty five percent to the sp five lost forty five percent to the median real estate. So the dollars also doing the same thing. So probably just what central banks are doing, just what GM, Volvo and LG just did,

what Russia is deciding to do. We probably don't want to hold fiat and we'd rather hold commodities. Well, one of the biggest mistakes people make in these countries is they can't get out of their fiat, right, so what do they do? They go into the stock market. So you play that, you know they'll buy that stock. You'll see the stock market kind of melt up. Why because it's the easiest thing for them that they can buy fire fractions of things. They don't have to buy real estate.

They can just buy a little bit of stock, and so you see the stock market run. But what happens when they need their money out They sell that and they get what Yeah, exactly, so and that's that they're in lies the issue. But if you get your money out of lira, yeah, so you know, uh, these companies GM bought a lithium mine. UM I can't buy a lithium mine. The problem with commodities is that UM commodities are very hard to own. I mean, you can own some gold. If you have too much gold, you can't.

You have to have someone stored for you. Obviously, I can't date delivery of a barrel of oil. I can't have uranium in my house like right, And so commodies are very hard to own. Um the best commodity in the world, and best is a relative term. But I like bitcoin, right. Bitcoin is a commodity. And Gary Ginsler, the head of the SEC, has been coming out and repeating over and over and over with increasing frequency that

bitcoin is a commodity and nothing else. And I saw Bloomberg Intelligence put out a piece last year and they said that bitcoin they expected bitcoin to move into a risk off asset, and I think we're starting to see that in some regards. And so I think about bitcoin as a commodity one that's going to be in massive demand. If this thesis is true, which let's actually not say the thesis. If what the government and the Treasury and the CBO is telling us is true, which I believe,

then they're gonna print lots of money. And so then we want to not hold that we want to hold commodities. Bitcoin might be the best commodity and we can take custody of it and all those things, and potentially we're starting to move into this risk off asset which looks like it could be happening. So yeah, let's let's talk about that. So, um, first of all, going back to your your your main point, which is you want to

own assets. Right, So, using some of Lyndall Alden's recent research, if you had, if you want to buy one barrel of oil back in nineteen thirteen, would have cost you just under a dollar, right, so that today one barrel of oil will cost you about eighty dollars. So if you had to held a barrel of oil all those years, right,

you would exactly so. Or if you if you had an ounce of gold, it would have bought you about twenty two barrels in nineteen thirteen of oil, and today one ounce of gold would buy you about twenty four. So we kept your value. But there are so many problems with gold. Like you said, I have nothing against gold, but it's not the ultimate store of value, and it's it's not easily transferable. You can't transport it very easily,

you can't cross borders with it very easily. But in an exact opposition to that, Bitcoin you, it's decentralized, it's it's immutable, it's scarce, it's easily transferable, and possibly most important of all, it's censorship resistant. Possibly, I would say it probably is. Now. I've been a commodities investor, mostly

precious metals and energy for a long time. But again, like I can't really take a barrel of oil delivery, and so, like you know, I'm not I'm not the super advanced options traders, so I'm not playing a lot of gold, I'm sorry, oil futures things like that. But I like to invest through the oil ecosystem. So I like to buy pipelines and tankers. I like to buy drilling. Uh, you know, manufacturers are creating new drilling technologies things like that,

and through the ecosystem. Um. Same with you know, other commodities and things like that. Um. It seems like the way the bitcoin is kind of setting up, we're starting to see this ecosystem full of opportunities as well. Yeah, it's massive, and you've you've talked about this before, and you hit on this really hard in Cabo, and it's about bitcoin being the sixth technological revolution, you know, and and you know we've we've had our hydro power. We

had our steam power, you had electric power. You had um combustion, which the cars and automobiles and airplanes. Um. And then you had communicating and storing information. You had the microchips, UM, you had in tell Microsoft software the things the Facebook, yeah, and and uh in the Internet, yeah, in the Internet. And now with bitcoin you have something

that that communicates in stores of value. And that's and that is the that's the the revolution that will create all of the end will disrupt, it will it will disrupt and create new areas and industries and sectors. And so like you're saying, you you invest not just in oil and not just in bitcoin, but you invest in oil drillers, you know, oil services, tanks, tankers, anything that's that's around that business, and you diversify your investment and

you can do the exact same thing in bitcoin. Yeah. Yeah, there's so many opportunities that are popping up. So I know, um, you know something I've been working with you on and a couple other people you mentioned Greg Foss earlier, Greg Foss and learn of the Part and Corey Clipston, David Foley, we're working on kind of trying to create well not create take advantage of opportunities that have been created based off of where we're at in the market cycle. Things

like that. I want to talk about ways that maybe there's ways to get opportunities in the bitcoin space that you're kind of thinking about or focusing on. Yeah, I mean this last year mark, we've seen a tremendous amount As you and I have talked about quite a bit, we've seen a tremendous amount of damage done to the cryptocurrency world because of market cycles, market cycles, and but there was some there was some nefarious activity, there were and there was bad or no risk management, and that's

bled into the bitcoin ecosystem just purely through contagion. Right, So, whether it's in finance or payment solutions, or social apps or wallets or nodes off whatever it in Lightning network, whatever it may be. There are these startup companies that are starting to build out all of these disruptive technologies on off of that bitcoin based layer that have gotten themselves into um into financial trouble. And they're called distressed companies.

And some of these are great companies, they just again got over their handlebars and uh, and now they're in need of cash. They're trying to raise their next round of capital, whether it's a Series B or whatever it may be. And or there's some distressed miners that are publicly traded, some are privately traded. There's just a lot of opportunity in the space and there's there are ways that we can and that's why we started this whole fund.

We literally started this Bitcoin Opportunity Fund in order to not just uh, not just take advantage of these opportunities, but they help these companies that we believe in that that need capital and will be vital going forward. And and that's it's just you're in that cycle right now, and the timing is right. So yeah, you know, Um,

the saying is and you've all heard it. I mean there's variations of it, by when there's blood in the street, and um, you know, by when people are when people are sell when people are greedy, by when people are fearful. The problem is is, um, you know, when you see that there's a Black Friday seal, you're willing to wait in line all night to go get that discount. Right, people get trampled, literally, people get trampled and die trying

to get a discount. But yet when a TV. Yeah, on a TV, right, But when financial assets go on sell, people send to tend to be afraid. So um, think about that. If you're interested in learn any more about the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, check out Bitcoin Opportunity Dot Fund.

You can check that out. You can request more information if you want to check it out, But either way, think about what bitcoin is going to do in this type of environment of what I would call almost certainty when when the government, the FED, the CBO, the Treasury tells us what is coming next, and that is lots of money printing in dbasement and you better figure out what type of lifeboat you want to be in when this inflation tide comes to wipe everybody out. I know

which boat I'm in. I'm in the bitcoin boat. I'm in the Bitcoin ecosystem boat. So check that out. Check out at James Lavish, follow him, check out his Informationist newsletter. Of course, I am at one Mark Moss. If you missed any of this, you'd better go listen to the whole thing. You can check it out on the podcast just search the Mark Moss Show on any of your favorite podcast players. You can check it out on YouTube. Also at the Market Disruptors Channel, and that's what we got.

Thanks so much for listening today, Get on that lifeboat till next time. Thanks for having me Mark