Look at what's going on in El salbad Or. He's even gone so far now as I think he's given out like one hundred citizenships.
To scientists, doctors, philosophers.
I love what he said. He talked about the immigration problem in the United States. He said, we need to ask ourselves, why are people leaving our country.
The things that are of real value to you. By putting capital behind them, you're generating positive return. Whether you see that in a portfolio number is to some extent less material. Your portfolio is going through the roof, but your world's collapsing around you. What's the point?
I think right now, with the rise of the Internet, we're becoming more globally connected, but more locally disconnected at the same time.
Even that guystory cycles. I mean, I'm watching local communities forming literally ten years ago, we're not really forming.
There was someone on Twitter, a doctor. She posted a letter that she'd gotten from the entrance company by referring over the COVID patients. And she had said, if she would have referred all these covered patients, she would have made one point five million dollars. That's what how much they would have Peter.
And people are waking to that, and they're saying I no longer trusted. The reason that we need them is that you don't get asymmetry without them. You won't get the eighty twenty right because if everybody was the twenty, there would be no twenty. Then everybody is like there is like, how do you get eighty percent moving right with a twenty percent move left? Like, you can't have everyone. You have to have the anomaly. That's how you get the asymmetry.
So for.
People like me who spend our time trying to find the asymmetry, we have to have the vast majority doing something. And for the most part, they're generally right, you know, in herds when the majority. We were talking about this the other day, right Michael's Eve. The herd are typically right, but every now and then they're wrong. And so as an asset manager looking for asymmetry, you're just spending your time. It's like, I think it was Jim Rogers. Jim, I
think it was Jim Rogers. He said, look, he just waits for he doesn't want to jump over like hurdles. He waits for the one he can just step over. And so you've got to be It's like you're a surfer, what's it every seventh wave, ninth wave depending, like that's good. Yeah, there's something like that. I'm not a surfer, but I know there's some thing where it's like it.
Depends on how many waves come in per set or something. But yeah, typically maybe the second, third wave or the best skipped the first kind of thing.
Yeah, So you there's a patience that you've got to have. It's like, you don't ride every way. It's all timing and and so you've got to you have to be patient and be like, Okay, that's where that the setup now is right and I can see it.
Charlie Munger said, the big money is not made in the bay and or something.
But the weeding absolutely, yeah, absolutely, So you have to have patients, and most people don't have patients, and you've got to have the ability to have that wherewithal to go left when everyone's going right. And those setups come along every now and then, but they're not that often. Again because most of the time the herd is broadly correct.
But do you think the herd is broadly mostly broadly correct in certain periods of time? So what do I mean by that? Not to throw this out but just maybe for a frame of reference, you know, in a fourth turning type environment with the generational theory, where the hard times bring strong men and then at the end, right,
the weak men cause bad times kind of thing. And so you might argue that we're sort of in this period in time where people are so far removed from the wealth creation aspect, right that they start making just idiotic, stupid policies because they don't just understand the world. They never worked in that world. You're familiar with generational theory, right, So, I mean it's a model. It's certainly not empirical. I don't believe it for everything, but it's one way to
view the world. If you look at Germany after coming out of hyperinflation and war reparations, the country was basically broken down to nothing. Very hard times created very strong men, and they became the economic powerhouse of Europe, right in precision, German engineering and German cars and all of that. We're eighty years later right now, and what is Germany doing.
They're de industrializing because you have people putting in policies that don't understand that those were the things that actually made them great in the first place. And that's just one ancidotal piece of information. But generally, and back to the point of the question, maybe at certain points in time, finding that asymmetry because of bad decisions is easier. So maybe trying to find that in Germany forty years ago
might have been tough. Germany was doing great, but today you see these stupid decisions of shutting down your energy and then it's like, well, wait minute, but you're going to need the energy. So do you think that's true or I.
Think it's one hundred percent true? And I think you have cycles within cycles that distribution that we just discussed, where you have roughly twenty percent of individuals that will move a certain way, and you'll have the market moving sayety percent of the time a certain way, and those things generally generally true and they become so there is there's a cycle pattern there. Within that cycle, you'll have
the generational there. So let's take this and let's just think about the business cycle roughly a seven to two sort of twelve year cycle. Everybody most everyone is relatively familiar with it, and so you can look at that as a cycle. Now, within that cycle, you're going to have individuals that profit often that twenty percent will profit at the tail end of either. They'll profit from the tail end of either because they'll identify, oh, this is
the end of that business cycle. This is when assets get cheap, and they'll buy them. And then in the opposite they that's too expensive and they'll sell them, and vice versa. In fact, your Greek shippers have been extraordinary, Your Greek shipping families have been extraordinary successful over generations doing that very thing. Because shipping is a very cyclical business. It's extraordinarily capital intensive, which means it's debt financed. The
debt markets themselves have their own credit cycle. The commodity markets, which the which the shipping space is typically tied to, has its own cycles, and so those individual families have often been able to just identify those particular cycles and just pretty much time them. Right. So there's like your business cycle tied in with a longer term debt cycle. Right, So the longer term debt cycle will simply exacerbate your
existing business cycles. You're going to have a big business cycle at the tail ends of either of the debt cycle, which is the different sort of eighty year cycle, right, or sometimes there's a thirty years debt cycle as well. But so to your question, you have these broader cycles, and I think the same individuals and the pest personalities will always exist and they will just have an exacerbated
result within the context of those cycles. And it's very unique in this period of time that you and I are sitting down now in that we have multiple of these cycles all converging at once. And I know you've you've done a lot of fantastic work on this, and we have a lot of those cycles that are all prevalent now. And what's really fascinating is that the longer the cycles, the less well known they are, which is
for obvious reasons. A business cycle, you know, you can grow up and you're like, oh dad lost his business and any like. You know, people have a visitor have an impact within a business cycle where they can sort of identify it. Longer term debt cycles that don't because they're multi generational.
We know, like fifty years that's like our windows exactly.
And you might hear stories about grandma or grandpa and things, and you know, if the curious of us will look at that and go, what does that mean? What happened? And investigated and then they'll see, oh, there's something going on here, and what was what happened to grandpa back then? Looks like it's kind of happening now. And they start piecing things together and they're like, there's something going on. Yeah, brother.
But again, when you go in long, long cycles like your revolutionary cycle, two and fifty year cycle, most of us have got no idea. So it's the very very curious who look at that and go are we there? And what does that mean if we are? And what are the probabilities? And so like. For an asset manager
like me, it's not just identifying the cycles. It's part in large part, it's pricing the probability because it's not just like, oh, okay, we might have a crash in say housing, now I want to go and buy cheap housing, right, so you can look for that, but it's like, what is cheap housing mean? What is it? What are the ratios? What does it need to look like? You know? So? And there's so there's two ways that you can go
about it. One is just simply just looking for cheap value, and so you can take historical metrics and go, okay, we know it's roughly cheap at two times annual incomes right, and it's really expensive it's seven, eight, nine times, you know, and anything in between is like, well, we're probably somewhere in between in the cycle. So you can do that, and then if you do that consistently, you'll go, oh,
there's cycles. Yeah, whenever it keeps getting cheap every like, you know, it's kind of a repeating affair that keeps getting cheap and then it kind of keeps getting expensive, So you start seeing these cycles within. I'm just using real estate as an example because it's one that many people are more familiar with. But so, so you can do that, or you can look at the cycle paer and go, okay, what does that look like? And what
are the factors you look at? So I really enjoy looking at at it from multiple angles, and you know, so like my business partner in the fund, he's very very good at just the granular like what is cheap? What are the p E ratios, what are the sectors that are exhibiting these types of metrics that would ordinarily
identify something as being worth looking at at least? And then I will often look at that macro space and go what is like where should I be and very often we we we converge on something and I'm like, different angles. You're from very different angles because we've got very you know, he's a mathematician, and so it's you know, I think that's that's those what you're talking about. Those sort of cycles, are they manifest themselves? They repeat?
And so what are the big cycles that you're seeing that the trends that you're seeing that you're sort of excited about with your.
Fund Well, hm, I think the I think the largest is meaning, I think the largest debt is worth focusing on is the long term debt cycle because it has probably the most broad impact. It's the largest asset class is debt debt markets. And we have this extraordinary set up where we have the highest levels of debt globally and simultaneously you have the lowest relative interest rates, which is which is an anomaly?
And is it an anomaly though, because isn't it the low interest rates that allowed for the such high debt levels as debt As as interest rates continue to get cut in half, debt was able to double yep.
Yep. It's just that in the past often that has been corrected by various market forces, and so the market forces that we've had this time have often been overwhelmed. We had it in eight you know, many of us looked at and we thought, okay, this is going to correct a lot of that death cycle. And guess what they literally did the opposite. They flipped the swipt and they flipped the switch and pushed it up. And so you know, then you have to recalibrate. I mean, I
recall sitting. I had just exited a whole lot of real estate in November six because I'm like, this is fucking insane, this is right. I can't make a case anymore. And I couldn't find anything of value. So part of that was like I knew there wasn't I knew the values that existed weren't particularly there weren't asymmetric on the upside, partly because I couldn't no longer find anything that made any sense to buy, and so like and it's like, well, if you wouldn't buy what you own today, why do
you own it? Right? Because often we get caught, you know, owning things that we own. But if you woke up every morning and you said, would I buy everything in my portfolio? I think that's a very good way to look at it.
That is a good way too.
Then you assess it from a different angle, right because you're not married. This isn't like something that you don't have to own it. You just you can get rid of it if you don't want it. And so when you view things from that perspective, I looked at the stuff I owned, I'm like, no, I wouldn't buy this, Like why would I buy this? And I'm like, well, that's obvious. I need to sell it in any event, Then we had the you know, and I didn't know that there was a crisis. I just there would be
a crisis. I just knew the probability of upside for me was no longer there, and I knew that the risks that existed were growing every day. That was enough for me to go, don't I shouldn't be involved anymore. I have to get out of this. And then at the same time, there was nothing of real value that I could find. You know, when I searched across asset classes, I really struggled, and you know what, so my default was to go to cash, but that was the asset
class that was undervalued. So like by default, I'll ended up buying the deep value asset, which was literally cash. So there's many ways you can go about like kind of finding deep value, if you will. But further to the point like that was that was then eight. And then when that hits I was like, Okay, this is gonna we need this, We need a cleansing of the system.
And then when I saw the FED stepping in and every imaginable three letter freaking quantit et of this and that, and like, I was like, this is what they're going to do. They're just going to push this thing hard and further than it should do, which is going to create an ever greater problem. But that's where they're going to go, which then led me into saying, Okay, what are the consequences of these actions that they're going to take?
And for me at the time, the consequences of those actions were that capital was going to have to go to the far end of the risk curve because the way that they were going to do that was to lower interest rates, which meant the debt was going to higher,
which was just alluded to. But the lowering of interest rates meant that anybody that was dependent on income from your bond market was going to be in trouble, which is your pension funds, and your pension funds and your mutual funds are humongous, the trillions and trillions of dollars in value, and so these guys typically have to get roughly a seven percent coupon just to live, just to
stay aboard. How do you get a seven percent coupon on a bond portfolio, mostly bond portfolio when interest rates are two points So what it meant was they're going to have to take more risk within the bond portfolio. I equalpriate debt, but even that was like it was still like sub seven even in the junk bond market. So the portion of their portfolio that they could take equity exposure, you had to take the greatest equity exposure imaginable just to try and live. So I went and
set up a venture capital firm. I'm like, this is where the money is going to go, and that's where it went. So like you have into high end risk growth quote unquote growth assets, Silicon Valley, shit, anything, growth, right, And the more capital that poured in, there's also like there's a feedback loop in that if you put enough capital into any sector, you will see results. It doesn't
necessarily mean that net that's productive. Like you can have eighty percent of them all turned into garbage, and you can have some of them actually succeed and so on and so forth. But you can still have trillions go in and you could have let's just say, ease of numbers, ten billion go in and five come out, right, so you've lost fifty percent of value. But the ones that are still survive people have done well in them, so and to some extent, you almost need that as a
bit of like creative destruction. So like you don't think about the dot coms. We had tons of money poured into dot coms, but look, it changed the world. Yeah, you know, there was a whole lot of people that lost a shitload of money, but you know, over time it changed the world. So we had a lot of money that was going into high end risk assets. You just needed to see numbers, You need to see growth. It was the whole eyeball stage. You know, companies that
were getting more eyeballs, they get higher valuations. So like, it didn't need to make if you've purely looked at it from pe ratios and cash flows and all this, it didn't make sense. But if you understood that cycle and you understood why the capital was going to flow a certain way as a consequence of central bank actions, like that's where it had to go. Like it didn't matter, you know if you're the asset manager running a pension fund, like what are you going to do? Yeah, because part
of it is like you couldn't. They can only invest in certain asset classes as a mandate. That's how it is.
Do you study like long like old insurance companies and how they invest for their capital. I've been thinking about the life insurance company specifically and how dangerous it is for them to write the actuary tables, right, they have to really get good at like coming up with the time of death for those people they can write risk properly. And some of these like whole life insurance vehicles, right, they guarantee four percent or six percent return, But how
do they get that in a zero rate environment? So they obviously were having they were having to move out further and further on the risk curve as well.
Yep.
But now with the pandemic and because of the COVID vaccine, I think they're going to be way our sides on there.
I don't want to be any any of them.
Yeah, so they're gonna be way outsides on estimating those times of death. But also at the same time, the luos are on the risk curve at the same time, so it's almost like this double whammy.
Yeah.
I haven't done a lot of research into that. It's something I've been thinking about. I'm just curious if.
You know it's I wrote. I wrote articles about this in Gosh. I think it must have been twenty late twenty maybe twenty one, pointing out that there was that there was risk within the insurance market. I don't. I don't typically delve too deeply once I cannot identify our risk because my job is to make money, and I make money. On the log side, we don't short for
the most part. Occasionally we may take some sort of option positions, but we never go We never use leverage insofar as as being fully exposed, so we'd have we might buyput some calls know an exposure, but generally it's just a long or long only portfolio. So if I don't, if I identify something where I don't want to be very very hard to actually be a successful short seller. The few people last careers trying to do exactly and
I've lost money doing it. And the lesson for me, just in terms of my own skill set is just don't go near it, know what not to touch, and if there is an asymmetry within that market, I need to find it on the upside. In other words, if X happens, what are the consequences? What's the second third order thinking? If life insurance companies do fail on whatever, if the annuities fail, like, then what are the consequences?
And is there anything that's then asymmetric? In other words, could I buy some particular asset that, as a consequence, is going to go really high, that's very very cheap. Now that's what's interesting to me. If I can't find it, I just walk a hang. Okay, I know I don't want to be involved in that. Will let me keep looking. I'm just going to keep looking for what actually represents Yeah.
All right, I want to take a break just real quick and say that. You know, as we're talking about bitcoin and digital assets, the question really comes down to, like, are you tired of the global elites robbing you blind through all this money printing that's happening, And if so, then you need to be holding your wealth outside of that, and more importantly, you should be coming to the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville. The twenty twenty four conference is happening
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Now.
There's going to be top speakers there, companies, thought leaders from across the industry. They're all going to be in Nashville looking ahead for the future. And I'm going to be there. Lots of other people, my friends are going to be there, and ticket prices keep going up, so the longer you wait, the more you're going to pay. But I don't want that to happen to you. I'd love for you to come hang out, meet me, hang
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So check out Treasure what they're doing. You can save ten percent on these things by using code mark Moss. But either way, make sure you secure your own bitcoin. Let's turn to something maybe a little bit that you have a little more interest in, maybe it's a little
more exciting. So you were talking about sort of a new focus that you have, potentially a new fund that you want to set up, so maybe I don't know how much you want to get into it, but working on technology for sort of this regime chain cycle that we're in right now. So we talked about yesterday, maybe like as it in tech, but you're also talking about like grain crafts things like that.
Yeah, so it's kind of a side project, and it's it's not I'm not running it. I'm partly the brains behind it. It's it's basically addressing the great reset, which is kind of It's still amusing to me that when you mentioned that where people go conspiracy theories like it's literally there's a book written about it called that, I mean called that. You have policymakers.
YouTube still a warrant to know, I know.
It's just it's mind boggling to me how how brainwashed people can be. But nevertheless, there is an agenda in play with respect to changing society. Fundamentally, I don't believe it's going to work for the same reason that communism has never worked. That doesn't mean they're not going to continue to push it. The solution to it isn't In my book, it's not necessarily to fight it. I think it's very, very difficult to fight that force with the
same strategy. If you think about if you think about the wu flu mandates that were put in place where you needed to get the safe and effective otherwise you'd lose your job and so on and so forth. In large part, the lesson that I learned there was the solution wasn't to fight it face on necessarily. The solution
was just to have an alternative. If you like, for example, if you were a school teacher and you were given this ultimatum and I had an option for you, and I was like, yeah, you can go and work here and do this, and there is all parts and there is no requirement for anything to be mandated, and maybe it's even sixty percent of your income. There are many people who would have taken that part and said, yeah, I will do that. That's how I believe how you
find it. You build a parallel system, you build alternatives. It is the It is the alternatives and the growth of the alternatives that allow for you to have optionality. When you have optionality, the power is taken away, right.
Yeah, I mean that's the history, that's the model from history, right. I mean, the colause of the USSR was really driven by those parallel markets, those outdated and by people opting out right because sort of there's the meme of like the political leader out over the cliff on the ledge with the piece of wood and the crowd sits downing on it, and if they move away, he falls right, and so like, as long as we give power to that system. That system stays in power.
You just step out of it.
And so you just step out of it, rather than try to fight it head on, you just I'll just opt out. Go over here. And so it does two things. I mean, one it it caused them to lose their power and their control over that situation. But two, when it inevitably fails, then there's this secondary system, this life raft, if you will, to help cushion the fall.
So it's those life rafts that we're focused on addressing through a venture capital arm where we'll be funding and resourcing existing projects typically already profitable, that are addressing those And it's across multiple avenues that are all being utilized
as vectors of attack. Health, agriculture. With respect to our food supplies, it's extraordinarily difficult now to find food that is not GMO, there's not laced with pesticides, that is not even I mean it's difficult now to find chicken that's free range, hasn't been laced with hormones to make
them fat and feed with corn all that long. Like the quantity of protein that our bodies require, we're going to eat, We're gonna have to eat so much more of that garbage just to get the nutrients that we need. So this but there are already.
Trying to get two hundred grams of protein to day, hard to get that bloody hot.
But part of that is like, and I've seen research studies on us. For example, you take a lettuce that was in the nineteen forties I think was the nineteen forties. In order for us to get the same nutrients out of a lettuce, now we have to eat almost ten lettuces.
Yeah, because the soil.
So it's because the soil has been been depleted, and largely it has been depleted through various interventions and so on and so forth. So anyways, point because and then of course healthcare is another one. So and we're seeing already the market forces in play here. There are many people who are distrustful now of the medical industry, shall we say, for obvious reasons. And so now they're looking for alternatives, and the alternatives are cropping up, and they
are getting enormous because there's so few of them. It's like the asymmetry of supply and demand, right. I mean, we're seeing a lot of this in Mexico. And they you spend some time there, you know, all sort of all because it's a less regulated mand and look, to some extent, that's been the case for decades now. If you wanted to go and get stem cell research or stem cells done things like that, that's been the place to go. You're not going to do it in the
US anyways. So those sorts of things we're seeing literally as being quite asymmetric, and there is a value proposition there where basically I think that that's part of that parallel system that we absolutely need where you're being mandated and told you have to go and use you have to use these particular medical providers. And we know that those medical providers haven't had a very biased opinion because
the people that actually pay them aren't US. They're requiring other participants to literally have their license and their jobs.
And so there was someone on Twitter, a doctor who posted went pretty viral a couple of days ago, maybe we coul Ago and she I think it was. She posted a letter that she had gotten from the Entrance company by referring over the COVID patients, and she had said if she would have referred all these COVID patients, she would have made one point five million dollars. That's what how much they would have paid her. Yeah, think about the incentives around that.
So to your point, yeah, yeah, and people are wiking to that and they're saying, I no longer trusted and so I'm looking for alternatives. So if there are no If there are none, that's a very bad sit up because you're kind of stuck. But there are some. Yeah, there's a lot, and there's quite a lot more, and
so that feedback mechanism is now working. You know, the way down the road gets something done and he talks to Freddy and the next thing you know, you got off a dozen people are like, maybe that's not so bad.
Yeah, yeah, And I mean just a general breakdown in the healthcare system overall. So I've just seen a big trend for more concierge type medicine. Obviously there's a lot of medical tours in that happens. People are paying for that medical stuff. So and then then you add this on top of that, so certainly an explosion there. You mentioned the food, Are those the two areas that you're thinking like food and medicine?
Yeah?
What about communications? Because censorship seems to be like the number one attack factor right now. Look look at Elon Musk like the richest man in the world. I mean, he's the attack vector right now, and I don't know how much longer he's gonna be able to withstand the forces coming against them. You can see what's going on
with such a ship all around the world. Ireland is sort of maybe the tip of the spear of Brazil as well, but even in the United States, with the release of the Twitter files, we can see how the CIA has been using social media platforms and whatnot. So does that fall into that or not the tech.
Side At the moment, we're simply looking at that which we have in front of us, where we can get our hades around it, and where it represents decent value. You know, there's an ideological approach and that we want and need a lot of things. But we're also understanding of the fact that like I'm a macro guy, I don't know shit about technology. Sure not to use the phone, and I can read and I can understand broadly how master works and how decentralized system blah blah blah.
So use trying to pick and choose winners in that environment.
I'm not that guy. I'm not their guy.
So put, you're that guy.
But within the net, no, not even there, but like within the within the network that we have, we're identifying participants that have those skills and have proven them. They're already doing things that are verifiable and are addressing these issues. And so our role is basically to partner with them and to network all of these these various aspects together and and and basically build a better world. So so that's the idea. It's so at the moment, you know,
it's for still relatively early stages. It's been quite a long time in sort of brain formation over the last four four ideas. But for the moment, it's going to be like agriculture, healthcare. Those are the two that we've identified. There is a bunch of tech stuff that we have looked at, but it's it's again, this is not designed to be like early stage startup type stuff. You know that in order to do that you really need to be an expert in that. Yeah, and I'm not, and
my partners are not yet. We're business operators, you know, or I'm a fund manager. They are very very successful business operators. So but so we can use the skills that we have and then again within the network, identify individuals that we can partner with to move those things forward. So that's the broad.
Yeah, I love it. You know, something I talk about quite often, I mean in sort of a convergence of two things, but like one sort of like Warren Buffett's like deal box, where it's like, hey, identify the couple things that you know like or have interest in, you know, passionate about, expertise, and just focus on that. Yeah, you know, Buffett sort of preached a lot of concentration in that in that regards, right, and so I've found just in my own life, like things that you're interested in you
spend more time in. And to be good at any of these things, you have to spend a lot of time there. That's number one. But even more importantly I talk about, you know, really building the world that we want, and really it's a message of personal responsibility. I know that we both share, but like if we want to change the world, it's like up to us, Like we can't sit back and hope that a politician is going
to come save it for us. And so then like utilizing our resources, our money potentially and resources in order to build that world right, so you see a problem with the food supply, will if all things are equal, why wouldn't I just invest in to help the food supply?
Then?
If I can make just as much money there as I can buy in China stocks or whatever else, like, why wouldn't I put it there? And so that's something I talk about as well, right, like specifically around the bitcoin fund that I have, and just in general. Right, it's like we have to put our money up where our mouth is, right, we have to invest into making
the world better for ourselves. And you know, maybe not so much in this case, but even maybe just to the listeners I talk about, even if if that means you get a lesser return, or maybe you might even lose a little bit, Like that's sort of the battle that we're fighting today. Right, So if you think about like our founding fathers, I mean, they fought a war and they died, they lost every I mean a lot of them died. Right today, likely we don't have to.
But if we think about we're fighting in a war, which I think we both kind of see that, then maybe our sacrifice is just putting our time and attention, money and money towards building that world I.
Don't see it quite in the same way in that think about the last four years. Money gives you typically optionality, and it gives you a certain lifestyle. Our lifestyle got taken away in many respects and it hasn't even come back in large part. Right, And George mentioned this the other night, she said, you know, if you took us
back to like twenty nineteen. You know, most of our port photos are up a lot since twenty nineteen, But would you go back in terms of your net worth to twenty nineteen for the quality of life that you had?
Yeah, of course, mostly what I want money for it anyway, exactly so.
That life that you're looking at the things that are of real value to you, by putting capital behind them, you're generating positive return. Whether you see that in a portfolio number is to some extent less material, right Like if I know that I can get a high quality food supply automatically all the time, and I know where that food's coming from. I know where my eggs come from, I know where my beef comes from. I know where
all this stuff comes from. I know it's not laced with pesticides or injected with mRNA vaccines or any of this other garbage. Who like what I'd rather eat that and make another four five million dollars a year. No, I wouldn't because what's the point, Like, I don't need any more money.
Well, I think we're saying the same thing.
It's but yeah, all I'm saying is that the value that you like. If you think about value, often we're just looking going, it's a number on a screen, right, but you go, typically, what are you going to do with that number on screen? You're going to transfer it into You're going to go and buy your meat, You're gonna go and buy these things. Like, Well, if you can get the same return by just having those things and having that security of supply, I'm like, you know,
that's a return. I'm like, Oh, a education, that's another angle that we're looking at. If I can know that my kids are not being indoctrinated, Like, what's the price you pay for that? Because that's a price, that's a huge price. That's their entire lives if they get indoctrinated in future generation and future generation. So you know, it's like I had this oh cracky years and years ago to be maybe twenty two or something. I remember backpacking
through Bolivia. I've done a lot of that, a lot of back, but it was just some it was an experience I had. I remember I was done going to I think it's bay de la Luna, right, and very poor country. Most of it's like shanties and you drive through garbage and shanties and poor people and everything else. And there was like this enclave of really wealthy people, beautiful homes but they're all at like nine foot high walls with raizor wire. Some of them had armed guards
on the gates. And I remember looking at that thinking, yeah, these people have got relatively good lives. But at the same time, I'm like, would I want to go live there? I'm like, no, I would much rather just have an average house in the suburbs where my kids can go
and play in the streets. Yeah. Like you know, so part of that is what we're talking about, Like, what is the real value if your whole world, your portfolio is going through the roof, but your world's collapsing around you, what's the point?
I agre I put out a long Twitter throughout the other day that went pretty viral, and it basically said the exact same thing, because in the bigcoin community, a lot of people have gotten very extreme and they think that buying anything other than bigwoin is a scam because nothing's going to outperform Bitcoin. And so I just put all your money and bigoin. And they call real estate a scam, and they think that people coaching and putting that information and selling that that's a scam. And I mean,
it's just gotten very toxic. Anyway, So I put out this long thread because real estate's a scam.
But I'm a.
Father, I got kids, and I don't like having to move my family all around because the renter wants to kick me out and this and that. I want my kids to grow up next to the kids, and so I put out this long thread and I said, look, I feel like a lot of you guys have lost the plot here, Like you have to understand we don't want money, right, we want the things money buys us. And to me, my kids growing up in this environment is worth. That's what I want the money for. That's
the whole point. Like who cares how much this bitcoin is worth in thirty years from now? My kids are here now, I won't get that time back. And so anyway that put does a long thread.
By the way, I think that's just entirely consistent with humanity. You know, you have any particular assay class and you have ideologues who come in and there's no nuance, it's all lost. That's normal. You'll get it in You'll get it.
To some extent, we're getting it in video stock. I just got an email the other day because I wrote an article about just highlighting how the valuations behind in video might not be quite asymmetric to the upside at eighty nine times peh, and it's more expensive than the entire German stock market, and I can give you many examples. So and I've got a lot of pushback, but that's because it's made the guy money. And of course it's made money. Sure, so you have a similar thing with
respect to bitcoin. You have them with any acid glass.
But the point of who cares how much bitcoin you have in thirty years from now? Is the time right now today. That's what matters with your kids or your family.
And well, I think we've lost to some extent that cultural morality, if you.
Will, sure I would agree, And and to some extent that's also one of the most valuable things is community what do you what would you pay to have a community that value and has a similar values to you where your kids can grow up in that community with those values A lot, I would give a lot of money a lot.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, and and yeah, so paying to have a good a good house, or your kids can grow up in the right neighborhood with the right community the right people. So yeah, So I think I think that's just a mind shift that people have to have to think about. I mean, look at how many people are at this conference right here. I mean those people paid money to come and try to expand their community, right, So some people get it, but it's interesting.
We don't have I think even that goes in cycle the whole cultural shifts.
Yeah. I think right now, with the rays of the Internet, we're becoming more globally connected but more locally disconnected at the same time.
Yeah, but even that ghost recycles, Even that ghost recycles. I mean I'm watching local communities forming, you know, which literally ten years ago we're not really forming. I've seen it, likeally where I'm living, I've seen it in parts of Mexico,
Costa Rica. You know, You're getting like there's there's communities that are formed online and you and I are part of many of them, right, So you've got people that have seen the world in similar similar views because we're not geographically isolated to the extent we used to be. And as many people will look at that and go, well, that's a bad thing. We don't have the same sense
of community. You know, you had maybe the church and the school, and you know that you were physically forced to largely some degree, both economically and as a consequence of technology, you were somewhat isolated. And so those communities then formed and had their own value systems, and you could say, I really like that one, and I can move to another one, so you had optionality with respect
to different communities. We've now formed communities online where you'll see people have and they can be in these different jurisdictions, and many people literally that's where their community is online with other people, and those people can be all over the world. And I think to some degree, we're now moving into that physical locality again because people are finding it's no longer enough for me to just have this relationship,
you know, via the internet. I actually need it on a physical basis because the pressures on my physical location have become too great. Why because this crime outs are now, or because I thought it was okay? But my kid just came back from school and he's a boy and I told him to wear a dress. Right. I met
a guy in Dubai like that. Literally, you know, a very wealthy guy had his kids at a private school in the UK on a business trip, comes home and literally his son comes back from school with a dress on, and he's talking to what are you doing? What's going on? Oh no, it's like it's Pride week and everyone has to wear a dress. He's like, the hell they do? It's like a seven year old kid. Okay.
So wow.
So you know he moved. And there's there's many people I keep bumping into in various locations. Dubai is just one of them. Where they're going, Look, there are values that are in this location that are more important to me now because they're no longer in existence in the physical location that I was. And so you're seeing physical, physical movements, human capital movements, and that's going to to you, and I think it's going to accelerate. So the will
is reshaping. Yeah, I agree, And so those all themselves present opportunities.
Yeah, like, look at what's going on in El Salvador. I think that's a good test case. I mean, Bukeley has turned that country around in a one hundred and eight degree difference in just a couple of short years. And the amount of investment capital that's pouring into that country is just amazing. And he's even gone so far now as I think he's given out like one hundred citizenships.
To scientists, doctors, philosophers.
Exactly exactly right. And so now it's sort of like this competition. I love what he said. He talked about the immigration problem to the United States, and he was talking about that specific subject and he said, you know, he said, I think we need to look at ourselves. He said, we need to ask ourselves, why are people leaving our country? Wow, that's like words of a leader.
Yeah.
And so but we're seeing this, I mean, we're seeing back to Dubai is attracting a lot of top tier talent, and we'll start to see where these enclaves are forming and people the Galt's goal, so to speak, right going to those areas in the United States. We certainly see it between the red and blue states, you know, for sure.
I mean that's been it's been over our ofttimes. We've never seen that significant domestic shift in termally within the country.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean when I was a kid, my my family moved from Texas to California. But that was because my dad was in construction and the oil market crashed in Texas in the eighties, so we moved to California where the construction industry was booming. So it's an economic move. But today, to your point, I think you're making it's people are moving for different reasons, non economic, more ideological, right there, community driven, if you will.
Yeah, many factors, rightly, because they all they're all interconnected. Right, So when you have a value, when a society collapses, it's very difficult for crime not to go up. It's very difficult to run a business when crime is high because it's a cost of it's cost of oil capital. Part of your operating expenditure now has to be allocated towards security. Yeah, and it didn't be full and.
Nobody wants to live in that environment. Yeah, So not even not even immigrants, the immigrants that come to the country, we're leaving an unsafe environment trying to come to a more safe environment. Like nobody wants that it's insanity. Anyway, we caverd a lot of ground. I think it's good. I think again before we start recorded as saying, I just love your viewpoint and your sort of your trend watching viewpoint, because that's sort of how I look as well, right,
like what are the big trends? And I get it from surfing, right all right, I like to use surfing as an analogy. Right, So in surfing, we want to know we can typically see when waves are coming about two weeks out, and what we're looking for is a big storm. So typically in the summer, they're going to be coming from the South Pacific down in like Fiji Tahati area kind of thing. And we need the storm
to get really big. Waves need to get fifty sixty feet, and waves get fifty sixty feet, we know it's going to send good waves. We see the storm forming, we're watching it. How big is it getting? Okay, this one's getting big. It's just in good waves. And then we can look at like how far did it spin out? Into which direction and which angle? So where are the
waves going to go? Will it be Mexico, will be California, will be South America and so then we can trace those where it takes about two weeks to travel and then okay, there can be really good in Mexico. Let's let's go travel down there, right, and then we get in position and we wait for those waves to come right. And it doesn't always work out. Sometimes the wind is horrible, the tide is wrong, something like that.
But then's your probability. But the probability probability.
Yeah, And I think of investing sort of similar, right, like, let's look for where the storm is. Right. You broke one down yesterday about you know, under investment into commodities, but yeah, we're still going to need them. That's a storm, right. A policy change is creating a storm. How big is that storm getting? And then where will that money funnel to? How do I go get in position? And then just let that money funnel right in.
So and part of its cycles unite cycles of history. You know, I've been fortunate to my money based on macro trends in play and just getting behind them. And then and they're not trying to be too smart. I
think I think that's also risk as well. People try and get far too smart, far too clever, and trying time things, and they depend on you know, the old adage, never buy a beer market, never sellable market like you get in and just just just ride that trend and stomach the volatility that's going to inevitably be with it. And if you can do that, you can you literally can do it once in your life, and you'll be
vastly ahead of most everybody else. And we have in front of us now some major major trends unfolding, and I think that's intellectually it's extraordinary stimulating. Thus far, it's been pretty profitable. So I don't want to I don't want to tempt the market god, so touch wood rather don't mention it. But you know, these are these are interesting times. And it's also in large part the risks that are in front of us, or risks that have not people not in some aspects they're not even aware
of them. Ay, many aspects they are aware of them, but they don't quite understand the real risks that are in front of them, you know. I mean I mentioned yesterday with respect to your old risk parody trade, and the vast majority of people in there are in some variation of a sixty to forty equity bond split, and most of those equities are literally in the mag seven and then the bond portfolios are sitting in front of
a five thousand yellows in the right cycles. It's just like you're whoa, yeah, yeah, no, so it's interesting times, all right.
Cool, Well let's wrap it up from there. You said you write a newsletter, a weekly newsletter or email. Do you want to shout that out or tug out your funds?
Yeah, just the there's a publication that we put out it's lands Up Going Out Overy sort of teen twelve days something like that. Whenever you get around it, yeah, yeah, it's it's funny. When I first started writing, it was maybe eighteen pages long because there's so much going on. Now on a macro basis, it's typically forty fifty pages well in any event. So that's that can be found at Capitalist Exploits dot at and that program is the
Insider program. A lot of that is and came about as a consequence of leaders to collect our asset management clients from Gnorchy Capital, where we manage client money. So those are the two Capitalist Exploits and Gnorchy Capital.
The man in the arena doing it yeah, all right, we'll wrapping up. Thanks,