Dr .Jeff Ross Is Going From Bearish To Bullish, Here Is Why

and some very smart and interesting guests. You don't have to listen to me all the time. And I am excited to announce I'm in the studio today with Dr Jeff Ross. He's the He's the founder of val Shire Cap. You can find him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. That's Veil veil Shire Cab if you want to figure out how to spell it anyway, Jeff, thanks so much for joining me today, Mark, thanks for having me. I'm

really excited to be here. Yeah. Um so if everyone listening. UM. At the Bitcoin conference Bitcoin two in Miami, Jeff and I and UH and Jeff Booth and Preston Pitchbrow on a panel that was that was super cool and I was hoping to try to get the four of us back together again, but but then things kind of fell off the hinges. But anyway, here we are so excited to have you back. Yeah, thanks so much. That was a lot of fun. It would be fun to do

a group with those guys again. Yeah, Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna try to dust that back off and pick it back up. My schedule got kind of crazy and I had to drop the ball on that, and Preston's schedule is pretty pretty pretty tough as well. But um, you know, I've been making content since two eighteen, and I remember Man two two nineteen, Bear Market h Man by two thousand nineteen, and it just was not much to talk about. But that's not the problem we have today.

There's like a never ending amount of stuff to talk about, and you're a great person to talk about it with. So let's dig into some topics here. I kind of want to hit on the very easy, simple topics of like, you know, the economy, g d P recession, things like that. Um, if we have time, we'll talk about this financial repres scition and maybe then we'll get into some assets like

real estate and bitcoin things like that. Um, before we were, before we jumped on, we were looking at this chart of the Nasdaq, which will come back to in a minute. We'll table that for everybody listening. But um, this week was a pretty big week where we had two big announcements that came out. So we saw the Federal Reserve the FMOC meeting came out and they raised rates again. Um, we saw the markets were betting that it would be a point seven five, some people thought would be one point.

Probably didn't matter either way, but it came out at the point seven five, and uh, the markets seemed to respond favorably to that. And then the g d P print came out, which was really bad, but it wasn't as bad as the Fed now had predicted it to be. And it seems like the markets really like this news. What do you what do you make of all that? Well,

those are great questions. It's it's so hard to discern, you know, what what is going on with the market because it's so emotional and and uh, there are just so many moving parts right now. So as as most people probably know, if you if anyone's heard me before, I've been pretty barished. I've been bearished since January and I've only gotten Yeah, I've only gotten increasingly, beariss. I'm one of those annoying guys that nobody likes to be around because I bring the mood down of the room.

You know, why did the Fed act? Why did the market act that way to the Fed's announcement. I think part of it is because of the verbiage where Powell said they basically moved from a comminative to sort of uh neutral, uh, you know, a neutral rate right now and so and and you know, we were a combinative. But people were expecting very hawkish um. They're concerned that the Fed is going to continue to have to tighten

for quite a while if inflation remains sticky high. I think what's happening is the market is starting to wonder out loud if we may have peaked, if inflation may have peaked, and maybe the FED won't have to continue to be as aggressive as they've been talking about. I'll tell you the other thing I look at, Mark, is what what are the treasury yields doing? So what are the two ten year treasury yields doing? Both of those

are um under. I think that the ten year the last time I looked at about two point six seven or so, and the two year was like two point eight generally, when the FED fund rate gets to that level and those levels start to drop, so they they they've been up right. The ten year got up to like three point to three point three is and has started coming down substantially. Um. When that gets to about where the level of the FED fund rate is, that

basically forces the Fed's hand. It forces them to stop, to take a break, take a breather, and then to then switch over to getting dubish again, to get accommodative again. Uh So, I think the market is starting to sniff all of those different things out. And even though I think the economy looks absolutely horrendous right now, and even though I think the numbers are going to get worse before they get better, um, I'm I'm wondering if we're possibly going from bad to less bad, and the you know,

the risk assets are sniffing that out already. The when you say, um, when you say they go to neutral, what do you mean by that? What do you think they mean by that? That's a nebulous term it and they never really answer it very clearly. They basically talk about there's this sort of nebulous natural rate that nobody can really see. But if we're below that, we're being a commendative. If we're above that, we're being restrictive on the economy. And there's this little sweet spot where they are.

It always happens to be right around where the short term interest rates are. I would say the free markets are better at figuring what that is. So what are short term interest rates doing? The right around kind of two point seven five to three percent right now? And so I think the Fed is sort of going off of that and saying, when we're in that ballpark, we're basically at a neutral rate. We're not restricting the economy,

but we're not being a commodative as well. Another thing that I saw that they said is that they were going to be more data driven, and that to me, I love at your opinion, but to me, I was afraid that the Fed gets very dug into the positions. They want to project way out in front what they're gonna do. They don't want to sup as the market. So they told us in November they're gonna start raising rates, and it didn't happen for months later. They're gonna raise

for this. They had this whole projection all the way through UM and I was afraid they would be dug into that, like they were dug into their let it run hot theory, and even when things were crashing, they

were going to stick with that. But when they when they said they would be more data driven, then it made me think, well, maybe they do sense to the point you said that markets are seeing that cp I might come down, and uh, if the markets are are crashing and CPI is coming down, maybe they would respond to the data as opposed to being stuck in their in their dug in their position. I think so. It's and and you know, I went back and listened to that part of it because I had missed that before.

And I think that's significant. In the last few meetings they were saying, we are going to be very hawkish. We're probably gonna raise you know, point five point seven five, you know, possibly even one is on the table. This time, they didn't mention anything like that. They didn't talk about actual rates that they're going to raise. They talked about possibilities. But yeah, they talked about being data dependent. And to me, again, it's it's what the bond markets are telling them. They're

looking at the Treasury yields falling. That's usually what happens as we head into our session, right, people buy safe haven assets, they buy treasuries, so price goes up, yields drop, uh, and then that forces the hand of the Fed on the short end of the curve. So I think I think that maybe the sign I think that's what they're watching for. And we're not gonna know. We're gonna see the CPI print come out. I think August tenth or something.

We'll see the July cp I print, and then we'll see another print in September um and then the Fed will meet again. So it's possible that they're done raising rates or may they may try one more time, but I think the market will reject them pretty quickly if they try to do that. Do you think the CPI prints will come down? So when we talk about CPI prints,

we're talking about the number. So we came up with the latest number was nine point one, which was higher than whatever eight point six were before that, And so, um, do you think that that CPI print you think that inflation will come down? I mean, we did see gasoline prices come down, but rents make up a huge chunk of that basket. They don't move very fast. I mean, what do you think the odds of that really coming

down are I personally do. I do think nine point one was probably the peak, although to be very clear, I've been wrong before. I thought we were going to peak sooner than this. I thought eight and a half was the peak before. Um so it has been sticky high. Um. But yeah, oil has come down substantially about or so on. That drives a lot of the factors and c P I. Um. Yeah, rents are kind of coming up, but those are sort

of lagging indicators anyways. Real estate tends to leg what the equity markets do and what bitcoin does and things like that. Um Uh. In one thing I've been reading this week, inventories in businesses have been building significantly as well, and so when you have inventories get built up, what happens is there's people just can't afford to buy things. Walmart, the CEO was talking about this. Food and gas prices are so high that they just can't buy the clothes

off the shelves anymore. So nobody wants these things that will help to drive down prices as well. So I'm I think we have peaked that's my guess. Yeah, I want to dig more into that specifically, because I think there's things the FED really can't affect that are driving CPI, and I think maybe over the decade we might be some of the lowest. We'll see. We'll talk more about that.

I want to talk more about a potential recession. Have they say that I talk about this chart that you and I looked at that maybe is telling us things that we didn't think about before. We'll talk about real estate, we'll talk about bitcoin and more. Um, you're listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, the founder of val Shire Cap. You can find him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. And if you're not following me

on Twitter, you should. It's just at number one, Mark Moss. We've got a lot more to cover if you want to learn how to navigate this properly, So don't go away, We'll be right back. All right, Welcome back. You are listening to the Mark Mos Show. We are talking about the decentralized revolution each and every week, and this week I am in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross. He is the founder of al Shire Cap. You can find

him on Twitter at val Shire Cap. We gotta do a panel together at the Bitcoin Conference two in Miami this year was really cool and so we're digging back into this macro theme. We just kind of talked about what the Fed did this week with the raising of the rates by point seven five, and um, we didn't talk about the g d P print. So, um, we also saw that and it looked like the White House came out in advance of the numbers and started telling

us what you see isn't real, what you think isn't real. Uh, And they wanted to change the technical definition of of of a recession to negative quarters of growth. So that was pretty weird. I think, Um, there's some truth to that, and we can dig into that if you want. But then, um, the Fed now had been predicting i think a negative one point six and then the GDP print came out a point negative point nine and so it was bad but but better. What's your take on that? Well, it

was basically as expected. I think most people that I was seeing estimates anywhere from positive like half a point positive all the way down to you know, about negative one and a half or so. UM, So I think it just sort of fell within range. I think the um, the powers that be knew that it was going to come out negative. So that's why they came out with this and paign this week. Um. You know that maybe the technical, technical definition, but that's not what a recession

really is. Uh. There's this group called the n b R. I think it's the National Bureau of Economic Researches, which is a group of academics who they they've had the privilege of uh declaring an official recession I think since the late seventies. Now. The irony of them is they are the backward ist of backward looking data people. So they usually come about a year later and say, yeah, it turns out we were in a recession starting about a year ago. So I expect the same thing to

happen this time as well. I get Yellin's point, and I get Powell's point. They're talking about unemployment being very, very low. It's they're they're absolutely right, but you know what, that's legging legging data again. And so as the economy turns, as companies start to suffer, as earnings start to decline, Uh, we're already seeing small businesses, which are the most sensitive companies. UM. I think it's forty five percent of small businesses are

already on hiring freezes as of last week. Uh, and some somewhere around five percent are actually letting go of employees already, so we should see unemployment start to rise. And worse than that, I think. I think it's thirty five percent of small businesses aren't aren't current with their rent, and I think it's sixty five percent of businesses in the transportation sector are not current on their rent. They can't even make their payments. Um. Of course, the the

in the consumer sentiment indexes are horrible. Manufacturing sentiment and it's all the sentiments are horrible. Um. I think, uh think that they'll have to shut their business down within the next twelve months. So the sentiments are really bad. But they did they did, so the White House came out and said, hey, look, that's that's not the technical definition. We also have to look at to your point, employment,

the economy, other factors. But to the point that you made about unemployment being historically low or whatever, I think that's another one of the CP lie you know, kind of made up statistics, because yes, maybe It's true the economy added four thousand jobs, but if you look at over a core or really we didn't add that any

because of what we had lost before. But more importantly, the labor participation rate, So the participation rate is so low, So the employment rate only calculates the amount of people that have jobs that are looking for jobs, but doesn't take all those people into consideration. And they've also lowered it to people who have less than full time employment. And I think there's some people that probably have full time jobs and part time jobs. So I think that

really excused the numbers. So while that one data point looks okay, if you look at it through multiple data points, I don't think that you're bear. So I don't have to tell you, right, the numbers aren't really that good exactly. I couldn't agree more. And I think they're being extremely disingenuous when they talk about these kind of status as though you know, we're we're looking healthy, the economy is strong. It's just not true, especially if you're a person living

on the margin. Right, if you're in the lower income mechelons of the U s um not only are you getting destroyed on the right hand, by high prices, high grocery prices, high gasoline prices. You may not even be able to afford it with one job, so you're on your second job as well. That on the other hand, you're at the highest risk of getting fired in the next couple of months too, and so it just gets

harder and harder for those kind of people. Yeah. Um, now about the inflation peaked, I mean, you know, we can all sit here and guests and speculate on that. I think there's a lot of things that are driving inflation. So there's I mean, they try to they try to classify with cost push and demand pull, right, and so the cost push is definitely going up. Costs are going up. Gas prices are so high that people can't afford to commute any more. So I'll quit my job and I'll

just stay home and collect unemployment. Now the employer has to pay people more to to work that job, and so that's cost pushing up. Of course, supply chains and the wars and blah blah blah blah blah. But then on the demand poll, I don't know what your take

on this. Is demand pull really categorized as like um one, they printed so much more money there's excess demand or is it where demand pull is more of a phenomenon on where people think that refrigerators is gonna be more expensive in the future, so I should buy that refrigerator today, or the home is gonna be more expensive, I should buy the home today, And so I don't know if

we're there yet. But either way, I don't see how the FEDS policies, I mean, and I guess if they completely crushed demand, which I think is what they're trying to do, just shut down make everybody feel poor. I don't know if they can really affect inflation that much. I hear you, I hear you. But I think that's what they're trying to do. Whether or not they'll succeed,

it remains to be seen. I think what they're trying to do is to crush demand exactly, and so they so as more people on that you know, again at the people on the in the lower echelons of the income strata, um as they get hit, as they lose their jobs, um, they're not. They're not going to be able to afford things like they were, even like that's what came out with the Walmart results, right, the CEO was talking about how people they have to spend more of their paycheck on um gas and on food, so

they just can't buy the clothes anymore. So now we're seeing inventories build up at lots of these stores. Um. As the inventories build up, people just they the supply has become more and more worthless because people just don't want these clothes and so so the prices that will

drive prices down. The other effect, by the way, that's related to demand destruction, as real estate comes down, as equities come down, the wealth effect of the middle and upper classes, the people who own stocks, who own a lot of these assets, we're seeing, uh, you know, those numbers come down significantly. People are down depending on what your what your thing is. If you're an ARC investor, you're down fifty um. So they just don't have the ability,

that the room to buy so many things too. So I think that can help drive down prices. But yeah, it's anybody's guess. It's so hard to read this system right now and what's going to happen. I had another I had another Jeff on this week, and Jeff Snyder, and uh, you know, he says that the FEDS powerless, and I'll release that whole talk the Feds powerless and the euro dollar market so big and they can't affect them,

blah blah blah. Um. He likes to get into the technical definitions, and this is where him and I, you know, jockey back and forth a little bit, where Um, he doesn't really believe in the wealth effect or the reverse wealth effect, and I'm just like, I mean, I don't have empirical data to show you, but like I wasn't. I'm never gonna sell my bitcoin, I'm not going to sell my house, but I still feel less wealthy and

I'm second guessing my vacations. I think the economy is gonna be worse than the future and I might want to hold on my money today. Like it's affecting me, it's affecting everybody I know. Like, so I agree with you on the on the wealth effect. It's it's it's real. I don't know how to quantify it, I guess is the problem. But um, I made a video two weeks ago um saying does this mark the bottom? And I gave a bunch of data points as to why. And it was really partly triggered by that last CPI print

that had come out. I thought that nine point one was a shock and it was going to change everything, and I thought maybe that was gonna be the bottom. So I wanna I want to talk to you some of those data points and then let's speculate on where we think that the risk on assets the NASDAC, Bitcoin, etcetera. Are gonna go. Um, and we'll talk about that chart we looked at before. UM. If you're just tuning in,

you're listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution through the lens of politics, finance and technology. I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Rossi is the founder of val Shire Cap. You can find them on Twitter at val Shire Cap im on Twitter at one Mark Moss. We've got a lot more to cover talking about the bottom. Don't go away, We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're just tuning in, you're

listening to the Mark Mos Show. We're talking about the decentralized revolution, each and every week, explaining to you the madness of the world, how we got here, what's going on, more importantly, where we are going. UM. I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross. He is the founder of val Shire Cap and uh, we are talking about a lot of the market movements that happened this week, where we're at and where we're going. Now. If you've missed any of that, we're not going to recap at all.

But don't worry. I got your back. You can check it out on the podcast. Just search Mark Moss podcast, find it on iTunes, the I heart app, or on YouTube. Put these up on YouTube as well. UM, so let's talk about the bottom maybe so too? We soho I made a video um talking about have we seen the bottom of bitcoin and really kind of risk on assets in general? And what really sparked that was a couple

of things. One, it was that crazy high nine point one CPI print, which you said earlier you thought we probably had reversed off of that, but here we were, and I think a lot of people were caught off guard by that, including the FED. And what I was speculating on was that because it was so hot, so much higher, the FED would have to respond even more aggressively than they wanted to, and then it would move their dot plot forward. So they had wanted to raise rates.

Three now they'd have to be more aggressive move it forward, which means they would probably finish raising rates this year by the fall of this year. UM and I had a bunch of metrics and charts to show that. So I thought if if they finished that, that means they paused this year. And then, UM, the risk on assets

moved well in advance of other assets. So when they announced when the Fed announced they were going to raise rates in November, Bitcoin and the NASDAC made their all time highs at that point where the SMPD and make a high tel January. And so if risk on assets move in advance, then maybe now that the market is going to say that they're going to move this forward, they'll stop, they'll stop raising rates. Maybe risk on assets could start to rebound. And so far it looks like

that's about the case. Obviously, we won't know until we get further down the line and look backwards. UM, but you and I were looking at a chart of the Nasdaq on a weekly chart back to two thousand eight, and man, it's it's it's held up with its market structure, and you're a bear. What do you what do you

think about that? And on the RSI show, is extremely over sold, so right right, yeah, yeah, And I'll tell you I'm definitely um questioning my bearishness, and I've been doing that for the last couple of days, even though I've still been fundamentally bearished. It's how can you how can you not be with all the damage, with all with all the danger out there, exactly so much danger out there, but at some point it has to go from bad to less bad. At some point we do bottom, right,

And I'm aware of that. So so I have a system. I'm a big fan of not trying to call by thems. I. I try to wait until bottoms are confirmed with my system, and so I use a lot of moving averages and things like that. It's very possible that this move up that we've seen in risk assets is what did mark the bottom that bitcoin kind of marked at first, and equities have followed as well. Um, I'm I'm reluctant to

say that. Here's why though. In past recessions, if we look back at the two thousand and eight two thousand nine recession and then the dot com crash from two thousand to two thousand two, those were much longer recessions, and the common um the average amount of a bear market rally. So this this kind of uh um, the recent rally that we've seen, the the average amount is fifteen pcent during our recession. What we've just seen with the with the S and P five hundered is literally

right around a rally. So either we're just doing exactly what we always do in a recession and in big bear markets, and we're going to peek and then head back down again. That's still what I'm betting on. I still think that's what's going to happen. Or we have bottom and and these we're gonna retake some momentum indicators and we're going to start a new bullish um, new bull market. I still remain skeptical, but but I'm I'm happy to be wrong if that means we can pivot

and turn bullish and make money for for our clients. Um, you know, I'd rather make money than be right. But but we'll see, we'll see what happens. Yeah, you're absolutely right. And uh I recently just did a video I've actually used many times before, which was the Wall Street Psychology. You know you've seen that one where it kind of shows and it shows the crash and then there's the bounce, right.

And so if you look back to the Great Depression, you look at the two tho eight crash, you get about an initial drop followed by a retrace and then it just falls the cliff. And so that's the that's the typical pattern. Like I said, we've seen it many times before, and we're kind of right there, right now, right there exactly. So we had the draw down, we've got the fifth percent retrase, and like maybe it could fall off a cliff, right, So that's that's what I'm doing.

So I'm positioned. I'm kind of neutral right now, and based on my trading system, it's it's sort of leaning neutral because I don't know whichever we're gonna go. We could completely fall off a cliff and that would make total sense to me, or or maybe it is the start of a new bowl market. We'll see. I had another one of our our mutual friends on a week ago and uh, Lawrence Lepard, and uh, he thinks that he agrees that the FED. His base case, I should say,

none of us know. We make assumptions and we assigned probabilities to them. Right. His base case was that the FED would most likely pivot by the fall, by by the election mid terms. But he thinks that we have a massive crash between now and then. That's it, that's his base case. Um, but I don't know, man, I'm I'm I'm the eternal optimist, right. We always have to be aware of our own bias, right, and I'm the eternal optimists. Always have to check my my optimism bias. Um.

We know, we know what reality is. But man, the central banks are pretty good with magic. It appears, you know, it's it's tough. That's what makes investing so interesting is you just don't know. And like you said, it's all about probabilities. And so this is the first time since January where I'm at about a probability, Like, I don't know if it's going to go higher lower. I'm just following the system and we'll see. I might just be sitting in cash for a while until a direction gets

proven out. Yeah, I'm certainly with you on the direction right, not trying to catch a falling knife. I like the right trends. I always talk about. I'm a surfer, so I ride waves, so I look for the storm. I go to where those waves are going to go for the storm and then I wait and I ride the wave when it gets there. So that's how I think about investing. Look for the look for the storm, position yourself, and then wait for the trend to develop, as opposed

to trying to catch that falling knife. Um and yeah, nothing nothing wrong with being in cash right now today, UM, let's talk about let's talk about real estate. I see I've seen you talking about real estate a little bit before.

I made another video recently about about real estate, and um, I was talking about it from a couple of different ways, right, and uh, I think as investors, and you might agree with me or feel free to disagree with me, but we we we can't call tops and bottoms until we're looking backwards on them, and so we just try to think about when things are cheaper expensive. And so if you look at real estate from a case killer index perspective,

it's very expensive. It's never been more expensive. But um, as I showed in this video, like homes are purchased with a loan, so nobody buys the house what they buy as a payment, right, and so then you have to look at the affordability index and so like, well, what's the you know, what's the payment versus the income? And then and then you have to look at what's the rent versus buy. When it's cheaper to rent, people rent. When it's cheaper to buy, people buy, And you have

to kind of look at it. I argued from those perspectives. But then I asked a question, and I don't know the answer. So I'm gonna ask you this question. I put it out to the to the the audience, and and I got a mixed bag of results. But if real estate will not if since real estate has basically seen increase over the last decade, when something moves up that strong and fast, isn't a correction healthy and expected?

And so if we got a pull back or pullback in real estate, is that a correction or at what point does it become a crash? Well? Yeah, I mean that's when you just get into technicalities right in definitions.

I agree with you that it's healthy. And I think that's the problem with the centrally controlled financial system that we have is the FED and the central banks don't allow for these corrections, these you know, these reversions to the mean when we see prices go up so far and so fast in these assets like real estate, like equities, like other things, they continue to prop them up every time they start to correct again. And so so I think it's very healthy and I think it should correct.

In fact, I would love for real estate to overcorrect to the downside. You know, that's probably not what investors want to hear, but at least in the short term, it has become so unaffordable that it's pricing out. You know, millennials and gen's ears are having a tough time buying houses because of the prices that have gone so high. So I would love to see them pull back substantially,

uh for the most part. And I would love to see some of the huge investors, like the black Rocks and these private equity firms that owned tons of real estate, I'd love to see them own less, honestly, uh, so that I could get back to more of a reasonable valuation for first time homebuyers. Um. I think that's one thing that if we do get a pretty good recession, that's one thing that could happen, and that would be a healthy reset. So I think of corrections more is

just like you, a healthy reset, uh. And that's and that and that's a good thing. It's a good thing for capitalism in general, a good thing for investing. Yeah, I don't know. There could be danger there with black croc. I'm gonna talk about that danger in a minute when we come back here and listen to the Mark ma Show. We're talking with Dr Jeff Frost. We're back in a minute. Don't go away, all right, Welcome back. You're listening to

the Mark Moa Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution, politics, finance, technology, and of course we're talking about bitcoin as the technology changes the world as we know it. I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, founder of val Shire Cap. You can find them on Twitter at val Shire Cap and we've been talking a lot of things about the economy, the GDP prints and inflation and so forth. But back to the comment you said about real estate for a

second there. You know, Uh, one thing that you said just kind of caught me was to see some of this wash out, maybe some of these black rocks that are buying up all the real estate. But what I'm afraid of is this, uh you know, own nothing to be happy, so to speak, and like every time we have these crashes, it seems like a way to transfer wealth from the rich from the port of the ridge, and so, um, look at the two thousand eight financial crash, right,

what happens in a parabolic run. You start sucking in more buyers and eventually the market runs out of buyers and then it crashes off. And so, whether that be the dot com boom or the real estate market in two thousand eight, or whatever bitcoin market you want to call it, but in two thousand and eight, everyone started buying homes. People were lining up and they're buying five homes or ten homes and at a time or whatever, right, um,

And and it sucked in more more people. So oh four oh five, oh six, I mean it sucked in the most amount of people. But then it crashed and then millions of people lost their homes. And then it was the black Rocks, not specifically Black Rock, but the but the Wall Street funds that went and just snapped them all up. Got basically free money, had all this unlimited financing, and so it really transferred home ownership from the individual millions of individuals two institutions, and then the

individuals became renters. And so while I would love to see the black Rocks get shaken out, I'm afraid they have. Actually I saw a report this week like fifty billion. I think it said sitting on the sidelines, ready to snap up real estate. So to the point, I'd love to see them washed out, I'm afraid we see millions of people loser home and then they deployed this fifty billion and they've become an even bigger player. And that's where these booms and busts that that that happened. I

don't know what what's your thoughts on that? Well, that's just how it works, right, I mean, it's the The name of the game, honestly is liquidity, and it's do you have access to liquidity during the boom time so that you can you can juice your games? And then during the bear times there is estionary times. Do you have a stockpile of cash sitting on the sidelines or something liquid, some sort of good collateral. Most regular people don't.

Most people don't think like that. They don't plan for a rainy day, They don't save up, you know, five thousand dollars sitting in their banks so they can buy some cheap houses when we hit a recession. But black Rock does, and they have access to capital, they have access to the credit markets. Um, that's just kind of how the Fiat system is wired. And the people who play the Fiat system game really well, they just make

endless amounts of money. Uh. And that's why we see and I know you talked about this all the time, but these massive, huge inequality gaps for for you know, income, Like it's the rich get richer, the poor get poor, and that's just the name of the game for the Fiat system unfortunately. So then what lessons can we learn from that? And this is something I've been thinking about a lot lately because in two thousand eight, I was all in on real estate and I had done really well,

sold multiple businesses in different sectors. But I was all in our real estate. When it cracked, I got wiped out, My income was wiped out. I couldn't take advantage of all those sales. But I saw other people who came in was able to get some credit lines and snap them up and there in a completely different position than

than I was. Um. And so then to the point that you just made, which I agree with, So thinking about it like that, then I guess people should try to think the opposite of what they typically do so maybe instead of trying to deploy all the capital now, maybe stockpile not only their capital, but also maybe try to really work on building their credit lines. Sure, and then that's the best you know, that's the best FIAT solution. Absolutely,

there's lots of tricks and for that. And that's what I used to talk about pre bitcoin, like what do you do you know, build up strong credit lines, build up savings you know, uh, earn more than you spend and all those kind of things. Invest wisely and uh and prepare kind of rainy day funds and think about it from a kind of a more longer term perspective, like how to be a Warren buffet, uh, individually for

yourself and for your family. I tell people these days, I think the smartest thing to do is actually just dollar cost average into bitcoin. Like, if you have very little money, put a little bit of that, even if it's ten percent, so say it's even like five bucks a week or ten bucks a week, um, put that into bitcoin. Because bitcoin does what basically homeownership used to

do or should do for people, That builds your equity. UM. So if you just kind of don't even think about it and just put it in it's sort of like paying off your mortgage. You're just building your equity whether you want to or not. You know, that's the nice thing about having these automated systems. You're just building equity and the Bitcoin financial network, and then over time your net worth will grow as bitcoin appreciates some value. Yeah. No,

I couldn't agree more. Obviously, I talk about bitcoin all the time on this show. Um But another thing I want to talk about. We only have a couple of minutes left, but is this this financial repression? And so really when nations get into deep debt, there's only a couple of ways out. They can default, that doesn't really work,

Austerity doesn't work. They can tax the way, but that won't work, and so then their last option is kind of like the financial oppression, which is basically forced people into buying government debt and bonds and then give them negative rates so they'll pay you three or four percent while we have seven eight sent inflation. And that seems to me the most most likely outcome. I mean, we're already in it, right. The I m f is put out papers in it that we're already seeing that. Um one,

do you agree with that? And if to then, Um, in that type of environment, do you think bitcoin is still the best place to go? And I think I think you're totally right on I completely agree with you. And I think that you know, they have these four options. I think what they always choose if they have the ability to print money, that's what they're gonna do. They're gonna print money. They're going to debase the the the purchasing power of their population in order for the government

to survive. So it's on the backs of their citizens, which, by the way, I hate it drives me crazy. Bitcoin for the first time, though, gives people a way out, and so I'm a little less optimistic for government that it's going to work as well this time around. I think what they're going to try to do is get American citizens to hold cash and hold treasuries and then,

as you say, they're going to basically inflate the value away. Uh, you know, they're going to debase the value of the US dollar, So the people who are stuck holding the treasury are basically going to just just watch their purchasing power evaporate over the next couple of years. Um, we actually can opt out with bitcoin, and I think Normally I would say go to gold, go to heart assets, but I think bitcoin is the best of those worlds right now. So I think it's extremely wise to to

UH to preserve your purchasing power in bitcoin. It's sort of outside. It's a parallel financial system that can't be touched or affected in the same way that these other

assets can. Yeah, I like to say that when when the government's continue to print an unlimited amount of fake fiat currency, then you want to hold hard, real things that they can't inflate, and so that that that brings us back to bitcoin, which is something they can't create more of UM, and that certainly looks to be like the most likely outcome UM until something breaks, which we

don't know what that is. But I think I think about in terms of like the law of diminishing returns, and right we can already see that each each time they have to pump the bubble back up, it takes more money. So it's seven hundred billion tar been two thousand and eight, and it was I know, seven trillion in twenty and what's the next one going to be? Twenty twenty trillion? And then it just affects less and less and less and then eventually it just doesn't work.

But um, who knows, right, Eventually people don't want that currency that you keep, uh, you keep creating more and more and more of Eventually people look at it and be like, why would I want this? If you can print twenty trillion of it, you know, over a year to to debase your currency and pay off these unpayable debts, what's the point of even holding it? And so that's when people start hoarding hard assets, start hoarding bitcoin and golden real estate as well. Yeah. I just I just

covered in uh an article earlier before you came on. Um, the Cato Institute put out so basically the Fed, you know, they're trying to do the Central bank digital currency. They opened up for comment and they had thousands of comments that came in. Cato Institute went through all the data and sixty of the respondents are completely against the Central bank digital currency, which is great, that's great news or four. But they don't seem to under stand it, per the responses.

And so man, if they switched to something like that, that could and one of the fears they cited is it could actually force people out of the currency even faster. Yeah, yeah, it's easy to see that, you know. Yeah, Yeah, it's it's it's all of the terrible properties of Fiat to begin with, and then it attacks on surveillance with it, and so you know, and it's it's it's just it's a it's a nightmarish it's or it's an Orwellian situation.

So so I think I think that would be the best marketing ever for a bitcoin if they actually came out with that. I agree. So then it gives them a way to easily print more money, more stimulus, which just the values the currency even faster. And then because they were William System, nobody wants to hold it, and I mean it's the best marketing they could have. I agree. So anyway, man, we've covered a lot. I really appreciate you taking the time to join me today. You're listening

to the Mark Moss Show. I'm in the studio with Dr Jeff Ross, founder of al Shire Cap. You can find them on Twitter at val Shire Cap that's pronounced like veil and shire Cap, and you can of course find me on Twitter at one Mark Moss. We covered the economy, We covered the data from the Fed, uh, did markets bottom and so much more. If you missed it, check it out on the podcast You search Mark Moss podcast on the I Heart Radio network or on YouTube,

and uh that's what we got. Thanks so much for listening. Until next time,