Does the President REALLY Matter for the Stock Market?

all of finance. In fact, data shows that the market performs different but maybe the same, no matter who's president. Surprising, right, Well, that's just the tip of the iceberg, because under the hood is actually a roadmap that we can follow. There's got a lot of nuance to it. So today I'm going to show you the exact data so you can see the truth behind who and actually what's really controlling

the markets. And while you're probably worrying about the wrong things at least when it comes to your investments, and of course what we should all be doing to prepare now real quick. If you're new here, my name is Mark Moss. I've been investing my own money into the markets for decades. I've been writing investment research newsletters for over nine years now. I've been helping thousands of investors

just like you, navigate and profit in the markets. I'm a partner in a leading tech VC hedge fund, and the data that I'm going to show you comes from there, right, So stick around because what you're about to learn could completely change the way that you invest for good. All right, let's go all right, So we're going to jump right in and we're going to talk about this election that's happening. We got Trump and Kamala running for the US president. The polls show it's about neck and neck, and a

lot of people are concerned on this election. They say that this is the most important election we've ever had, and I might actually agree on that. I know that that's said about almost every election we've had, and that's because each one becomes increasingly more important. There's a lot of reasons why that is the case. The way that they use executive orders, there's a whole lot of things. But this is not about politics. This is about markets.

This is about investing. How we're going to make money. And so while there's certainly major differences between Trump and Kamala. In some ways they couldn't be more opposite, and in a lot of ways they're maybe very similar. And certainly regarding who wins, we're going to see massive differences when it comes to social programs, border security, lots of things.

Censorship probably the most important topic of our lifetime. But in regards to money, in regards to the US budget, the deficits and money, and then of course the markets and our investments, is it really that different. Let's kind of take a look. Now. The popular belief is that, of course, whoever wins has a massive impact. They elect the head of the Fed, they're going to help direct

the budget of that set tax policy. Kamala has some pretty aggressive tax policies compared to Trump is the opposite. And so a lot of people think that this influence is the market. Like I said, I've seeing billionaire hedge fund people are saying they're going to pull the money out of the market, like I Kamala wins, for example, other people say we'll move out of the country if

Trump wins, and so we see it back and forth. However, I like to invest in the market as it is, not as I think it is, not, as I think it should be, but as it is. You see, everybody works off of emotion and gut this is what I feel, and you know, the society has emotionally charged everything, and so today we're way more emotionally whatever have been. But as investors, that's the worst thing that can happen. We

want to know the data. So we're gonna do is We're gona look at the data to go back in time, so we're gonna completely change the way you look at this, and then we're gonna show you what this roadmap tells us on what to do. So let's go ahead and just dig in. We're gonna go way, way, way back, not super far back, but we're gonna go back to nineteen ninety three Bill Clinton. So we've had Democrats, we've had Republicans, we've got them all. But what happened in

the market. Now, for the market, we're just gonna look at the SMP five hundred. Of course there's more to the market. There's the NASDAC obviously, there's commodities, real estate. We're gonna look at the SMP five hundred, which is, you know, the main index, and what we can see from the time Bill Clinton was elected right here in the first three years and eight months, so from January

one until September, that's the timeframe we're looking at. And what we can see is that while Bill Clinton was here for the first three years and eight months, the market, the SMB five vender went up by fifty percent, actually fifty five point nine percent, about fifty percent. Keep that number in mind, fifty five percent. With Bill Clinton. Well, Bill Clinton got another term. He didn't just run once,

he ran again. And what happened the next time, well, from again the same period January one through September, we can see that the market went up almost fifty percent, in this case forty three percent, so almost fifty percent again as well. Now, yes it went up and it went down, and yes it went up even higher and it came down, but in that same time period it ended up about fifty percent up. Pretty interesting. Okay, let's just keep moving on. Let's look at the data. Then

we got Obama. Obama came in two thousand and nine. We can see here in January was elected right here, and in the same time period we see the market going up by sixty one percent, little over fifty percent of sixty one percent, the market's up. Okay, well, that's enough of Obama. We can look at again. Obama got two terms, so we'll look at that. This was the first term. You can see went up here sixty one percent.

The next term right here, in the same time period again three years eight months, went up again fifty one percent. So it's almost seeming like every president in the first three years, a little over three years, the market goes up by about fifty percent. Pretty interesting. Let's keep going. What about Trump? Trump is going to destroy the democracy, He's going to destroy the world, right, well, or if

you like Trump, then he's going to save the world. However, what we can see here is on the same time period January one, for the first three years and eight months, the market is up fifty eight percent. So it's almost looking like Clinton, Obama, Trump, it doesn't really matter. It's up. What about Biden. Biden's been horrible for the economy, right, He's been horrible for the economy. We've suffered from the

highest inflation, the worst unemployment, all those things. But what happened in the market, Well for Biden on the same time January one, the same time period, not cherry picking data, three years, eight months we can see the market was up fifty three percent. Obama, Clinton, Biden Trump three years, eight months, the market's up about fifty percent. Pretty interesting, isn't it. Let's take a look at this if we zoom out. I don't know how we'll be able to see this if we zoom out. This is what it

looks like each presidential election cycle. Guess what. The market just keeps going up. As Lynn Alden says, there's no stopping that train. This is sort of overlapping all the periods together. You can see what this looks like. There is nothing stopping this train, regardless of who's in. Okay, well that's pretty interesting, Mark, I didn't know that. The data certainly contradicts what my gut and my emotions tell me.

But now that we look at the data, then I guess the question is that if the president doesn't change it, and regardless of who's there, the markets go up, then what's really drive in the market. Well, that's a good question to ask. Is it the economic policies of these people? Well, obviously not. They have drastic policies, right, and we have heavy tax policies, we have light tax policies. Trump gave us all kinds of tax breaks. Biden repealed the tax breaks.

There's a study that shows that regardless of what the tax rate is, the government can tax ninety percent, the government can tax ten percent. The percentage of taxes collected the revenue as a percent of GDP stays about the same. I believe it's eighteen percent. I didn't pull up a stat on this. So regardless if they tax more or they tax less, the percentage of GDP stays about the same. Why is that Well, because when they tax more, economic activity goes down, so they do get a larger piece,

but of a smaller pie. When taxes go down, now activity goes up, so now they get a smaller piece of a much bigger pie. So regardless of what the tax policy is, that's why it stays about the same. So what's really driving the market? If you watch my channel on a regular basis, then you're familiar with this chart. If you don't, then go ahead and hit that subscribe button right now while you're watching. Okay, now this is the S and P five hundred again, we're using that

as the market. Now, what I'm doing here is I'm looking at global liquity, not US, not the Federal Reserve. Not in the USM two. We're looking at global equity. We have to understand that money moves around the world. Right when they print billions of dollars in China, a lot of that money comes to Canada and the US buying real estate, farmland. Do you hear about that, right, US companies. So what we can see here is the black line is the SMP five hundred. Gold line is

the amount of liquidity. And what you can see is the S and P five hundred is almost a perfect proxy for the increase in the money supply. It moves in almost perfect lock step. So as there's more money, there's more money chasing limited goods. Supply and demand tells us that the price goes up. We can see it evidence. Here's a little bit of another chart. This is USM two.

But what this is in the blue line, what we have here is the Fed balance sheet and in the red line we have the S and P five hundred. And again you can see this moving almost in lockstep. Look at that this came down, This came down, This starts going back up. This starts going back up. Pretty interesting, isn't it. So then the question is, well, if it's not the FED, I'm sorry. If it's not the President, then it has to do with the FED printing money.

But not just the FED. Other central banks, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of China PBOC, the ECB, the European Central Bank, etc. Seem to really be driving this. Now, I like to show this chart to all the doomers in disbelief. This is the homes. This is the United States National Index, the median home price in the United States. The red line is the home prices. The blue line again is the money supply. And what we can see is they move in perfect lockstep. You're not getting rich

by your home dialue going up. It's keeping up with the rate of debasement. Now this is two thousand and eight, and there was certainly a little bubble going on there. Now it's snapped back below and you can see that home prices are nowhere near all time highs based in two thousand and eight, based off of where the money supply is. I want to take a second, just real quick, to just give you a reminder. The reminder is take control of your bitcoin. Look, for the first time in history,

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but even in my own ability to secure it. So I want something fast, I want something easy, and I don't want something to say. If that's why I use Treasure, And if you don't use Treasure, use something. Please get your bitcoin off the exchange. Use a hardware device to secure your private key and if you like treasure, check out the link down below. Okay, so if that's the case, then we want to look at the money supply obviously, right, not just who the president is, because we understand now

it's more than just the United States president. It's about the money supply, and it's about the global money supply. We want to look at all the central banks of the world. Now, the interesting thing I called this the monetary Codex. If you haven't seen my videos on the monetary Codex, then you don't really have a roadmap to follow this. We'll try to link that down in the

show notes down below so you can watch that. But what happens is is that because we're in a debt based monetary system that means money is created through debt issues. The debt can never be repaid. It has to always continually grow. You hear about them kicking the can down the road. It's because in a debt based system it has to be so the debt can't be repaid, it can't be destroyed. That would cause deflation. We can't have that. Then we have to have more debt to roll over

the existing debt. Now we've heard this in the last debt seialing debate. President Biden said, we have to increase the debt seialing debate. We have to have more debt to pay off the old debt. Like he literally said that out loud, like that's a ponzi And you're exactly right. Now, the interesting thing about this is that the whole world runs off of debt. You probably have a lot of debt.

I have a lot of debt. Businesses run off of debt, corporations run off of debt, the government's run off of debt, et cetera. Now, if the bank called you up and said, hey, we'll refinance your mortgage to zero, do you want to refinance? Of course you're going to take that. And that's exactly what happened in two thousand and eight. And during the Great Financial Crash, the entire globe moved interestates through about zero, some less than zero. And what do you think happened?

Everybody refinanced. And what it did is it put the entire world onto a cycle. Now the world is rolling over debt in a very predictable cycle. You're probably seeing this chart again if you watch my videos, and we can see that in this chart right here, seventy five percent of all the debt in the world has a duration of about one to five years. Now, on average, that's about every four years or so, every four years

the debt has to get rolled over. In order to roll over the debt, they have to create more debt, and you're starting to get the picture. Okay, So that creates these liquidity cycles. Now, the interesting thing is that these cycles, these four year cycles, also coincide with lots of other things. Now, this is the global equity cycle. Obviously, the red line is the hypothetical timeframe. The black line is actually the liquidity and you can see how well

this matches up. And you can see right now the global equidity is turning up right on par on pace to match this global liquity cycle. Now, what's interesting about this is that four year cycle just happens to have started in two thousand and eight. So take that forward eight twenty twelve, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty four, and that just so happens to overlap with the four year business cycle. This is what we see in the ism. So you can see about every four years this rolls

over and if you're counting with me along. You might also know that this also overlaps with the four year presidential cycle, which is exactly what we're in right now. It also just happens to overlap with the four year bitcoin cycle, and so we're seeing all this thing happen

over and over and over. Now, if we want to look at that in regards to global liquidy and understand the markets, we can look at it like this, so we can see, we got three good years and a down here, we got three good years and a down here, We got three good years in a down here, and we started October twenty If you go back on my channel in October twenty twenty two, I made a video said there is no market crash coming and here is why, and I made several videos going into early twenty twenty

three explaining this. You can see from October twenty two to present, we are on another upcycle. So regardless of who the president is, we are on these four year cycles, and the presidency cycle just happens to coincide with that. And that's why whoever the president is is sort of irrelevant, because again, nothing stops this train, the liquidity train. That is now the question that we want to ask ourselves as investors who want to grow our portfolio, is what

are the fastest boats we can go in? So you know, liquidy rises all boats, but what a warm Buffetts say, But when the tide, the rising tide lifts all boats. But when the tide goes out you see the swimming naked well. Liquidity rises all boats. The difference is that different boats go up at different rates. So the question is which boats should we be getting into? Because I showed you the S and P five hundred is only keeping up with the rate of liquidity, so it's a

perfect boat. It's keeping you above water. Same with homes. The media and US home price is keeping up with it. But that means that you're not losing. That's great, but it means that you're also not getting ahead. Now, different rates have different cycles, so we want to ignore the elections and instead we want to focus on these cycles. We want to have longer term strategies. So for example, we can see that different assets have different sensitivity ratios.

So what we can see here is that global liquity times monetary inflation hedges, gold and bitcoin, for example, move at different rates. So in this perspective, we can see, and I've broken this down for you before. For every ten percent increase in liquidity, why do I say ten percent? Since twenty nineteen, the US has increased its monetary base by ten percent a year. Now. The world is also in contribute to that, and it's also getting faster, faster, faster.

It used to be eight percent, now it's ten percent. Most likely if next year it will be twelve percent, but let's stick stick with ten percent. For every ten percent increase in money, gold goes up at about one point four five percent, so about fourteen gold will go fourteen percent. For every ten percent money supply, Bitcoin goes up at about eight point nine percent, So for ten percent increase in money, bitcoin goes up by ninety percent. Now, Mark,

but bitcoin is the same price. Bitcoin's the same price as it was six months ago. Okay, September of last year. September of twenty twenty three, twelve months ago, Bitcoin bigcoins up one hundred and forty percent. What about September twenty twenty two, your cherry picking data, Mark, Well, September twenty twenty two, two years ago, it's up two hundred and

forty percent. You're starting to see the math. All right, So what we want to do is we want to find the faster boats, and we want to find the assets that have the best and stippies. Now, which are those, well, those are the assets that fall in this fifty year quantum wave cycle typically technology cycles. If you want to know more about the quantum wave and the fifty year cycles and what assets are in those, then you might want to watch this video right here. Otherwise, forget the election,

focus on your investments. The markets are up fifteen percent in three years. All right, that's what I got to your success. I'm out