Can Technical Analysis Predict Market Sentiment?

Market Disruptors podcast. Today I'm joined by Jacob Canfield, host of the Crypto Traders podcast, and we get into cryptocurrency, bitcoin and trading and investing. He is a well known trader, number one ranked on Trading View, and we talk about the difference of trading and investing. We talk about how trading seems to line up with human sentiment of greed and fear and how actually using technical analysis and fibinaci's can predict where the markets are. Talk what the difference is.

We talked about how the average person should look at this, especially if they want to try and time the markets and do some technical analysis. Some really really good information from one of the best traders out in the space today. So let's go ahead, just jump right into it. Hey, everyone, Welcome to another episode of the Market Disruptors podcast. Today, I am joined by Jacob Canfield. He is from Signal Profits. He's also the host of the Crypto Traders podcast. Um

he's someone that I've been following a long time. He's a master of technical analysis and trading. And so, Jacob, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me man, I appreciate it been uh been a while. We've been talking about doing a podcast together for about a year now. Yeah. Yeah, I'm glad we're I'm surprised it's taking so long. I'm glad we're finally doing that. Uh So, Jacob, So, I've been working with you for a year and a half

and I know you really well. But for those that don't know who you are, why don't you just give us a little bit of background on how you got to this space that you're working in, what you're working on right now. Well, I've been doing technical analysis for about a decade, aid a little bit longer, but but full time professionally for about the last three to four years. I started out in options back in college. I took an options trading course. I've always had a really really

big heart and passion for fundamental analysis. I'm i myself am. I am a technologist, a futurist. I really love emerging technologies. I've always been on the cutting netge as far as adoption. UH. So you know computers, uh, the iPhone. I was like one of the first in line for an iPhone and uh. And so my approach is really kind of just investing

in trading things that I have intimate knowledge about. UM. I own a mobile application development company, so I know the ins and outs of of mobile applications, Apple, um technology like that. But I also have a background in healthcare, so those have kind of been like my cross hybrid of of my paths. I love e commerce, the healthcare wellness industry, and then on the technology and the trading side. UM. For me, it's all about quant afiable data, back testing strategies,

and uh. Trading just boils down to finding edges that are greater than fifty and then employing those edges over a long period of time, because if you have an edge that works better than essentially you're gonna make money in the long run. It's just kind of probability and statistics. And so that's kind of how I approached the market. I find strong fundamental projects and then I like to trade them um and try and outperform just a buy

and hold strategy. So that's kind of how I approach pretty much all of my UM investing thesis or trading the Yeah, that's good. UM, So it's you know, you bring up the difference of investing and trading, and you talked about how you like to have a fundamental knowledge of it and then trade against it. UM. Maybe for a lot of people that aren't really sure what's what's what do you think is the difference between trading and investing, because sometimes those lines get blurred. Yeah, I just I

just tweeted this today. I said, don't trade like an investor and don't invest like a trader. Uh. There are pretty big fundamental differences between the two, and I would say the biggest one is time commitment being a trader. And there's different variations in different degrees of trading, whether I mean, and there's a thousand different methods and strategies for trading, whether you're a short term, long term, scalping,

swing trading, there's all kinds of different approaches. I mean, the approaches are infinitesimal or sorry, infinite based on all the different angles you can take But the really big difference is time commitment. Investing is kind of a one time thing. You buy and then you hold for based on your thesis if yours is correct. Like Warren Buffett, he says, you know, I invested, I invest in all of these companies because I believe in the American economy.

So you know, if you if you don't think the stock market's gonna go up, your essentially don't think that the American economy is going to go up. And so that's his investing thesis and that's how it kind of approaches it. But from a trader's standpoint, you don't really care too much about the backstory, the investing all that stuff. It's really just kind of a time frame preference. You know, are you short term, mid term, long term? And once you have that kind of thesis behind it, then all

else it kind of applies. But the other aspect of trading that that I think is a really big fundamental difference is skill set. Uh, being a skillful trader and being a profitable trader is incredibly difficult. There was a study done on the i Q of traders and they say that people that go into trading have some of the highest i q's of the world. But there's a

rule that basically traders fail. And so when you have a group of people that have already a really high i Q and of those group of people, only ten percent will actually succeed. Uh. It makes it a very very competitive marketplace. It's very fierce, and so it's really hard to make money as a trader, and so it takes a long time to become good and profitable at trading. And what I also see the difference between investing in trading is that it most people they stop trying to

trade after about a year. Most people lose all of their money within a year, or a lot of majority of their money after about a year, and then they just kind of switch over to investing because it's a lot easier, and it's you know, because trading does take time to become good at it. But what we call that, you know, what we call the first year to three years is tuition. Just like anything, it takes time to

get good. And with trading, the first three years, all the money that you give to the market, to all the other people who have been their ten, fifteen, twenty years, Uh, that's the tuition to really learn how to trade over the long term. So time preference, skill set, um, and just just I mean, I think those are the two

biggest differentiators between investing and trading. But with investing, if you're investing in like a fundamental ideology, let's say Bitcoin, then your time horizon is drastically different than a trade. Your time arizing goes you know, then goes up to maybe ten even fifty years, kind of like investing in

um Forward or Amazon or Apple. If you if you believe that the tech chnology is here to stay for you know, an indefinite period of time, then you're investing these just still holds true, the fundamentals still hold true. That's a valuable, valuable company kind of no matter which way the market moves, no matter how far your draw down is. And so I think that's the that's the biggest difference between the two. But for me, I try to try, I try to employ kind of a combination

approach of fundamental and technical. I want to trade things that I believe are emerging technologies because a it's got the volume, be it's got the hype, um you know, so that that's kind of what I'm looking for. I'm looking for things that people are buying or things that people are going to want to buy, And I have a I have a combination approach where you know, part

of my money is an investing strategy. But I still think that and we talked about this before, investing and trading has this blurred line where you know, you can be a an investor, but you also are a trader

because a you want to have a good entry. You don't want to invest at the top of a massive rally um where you know, every technical indicator is showing that it's supposed to, you know, have a correction or downside, and I don't like to invest into uh, you know, very very poor macro economic structure, meaning you know, what's going on with the Federal Reserve, what's going on with all the geopolitical stuff around the world, is showing that,

you know, the dollar might strengthen, showing stocks might be going to I don't want to invest into a climate like that, So I like to time it with technicals, but I like to tie my position trades, meaning my longer term investments into like a really strong downtrend UH into a fundamental project, right like if if Amazon drops, I'm not gonna blink at buying it because the fundamentals don't change from the week before to the week after.

It's it's you know, I'd rather buy into blood rather than buying into euphoria onto my fundamental and you know, beliefs or my fundamental project. Yeah, so I think it it. I think what you're saying, though, it really depends on the specific asset class itself. So, um, when you're talking about more broader based assets like Amazon, for example, there's strong fundamentals, meaning assets cash flow, returns on cash flow, earnings, things like that, and so the fundamentals, as you say,

don't change, although the price could change. So then technically, um, that gives you good entries. But I think when you get into stuff like cryptocurrencies, for example, you don't have those fundamentals, so there is no cash flow, there is no assets, earnings, et cetera. And so then do you think that's really all more speculation or trading. I mean, technically that's not investing, right, It's I would think it's almost all speculation that it's going to be up, go

up and value in the future. Yeah, And I think I think an important point is to segregate bitcoin from the rest of the market. I think that bitcoin does have fundamentals, It has a value prop position, and it does have You can actually calculate how much each bitcoin is worth based on the electricity consumption that it takes to actually produce one bitcoin into power the bitcoin network. So there is some there is some you know, uh,

fundamental value in what you can define with bitcoin. And also what is bitcoin kind of competing against and what is its long term speculative value and uh, you know, for bitcoin, it's the entire you know, monetary supply. Any currency can go into Bitcoin. It's an alternative asset class, and so that has that you kind of have to segregate that from the rest of the cryptocurrency market. But yes, uh, you know people and in a very good example is Ripple.

Ripple the company has cash flow at has earnings, but you're not buying equity into Ripple. You're buying the x RP token, which used to be called Ripple but now it's just called XRP. But x RP has really no fundamental basis for it other than it's a use case for maybe money remittance or money transfers across the world. Uh, And so that one you can't really put much of a fundamental thesis behind it. There's nothing you can really

measure it on. And especially because it's essentially controlled entity with as far as like supply is concerned, ripple controls six it. So with that, I base almost all of

my investing or trading decisions on technical indicators. And so for me, technicals are the benchmark for what I should base all of my decisions for cryptocurrency on, because who controls the decisions of a lot of these things are market makers and algorithms and and frequency and high frequency traders in the market, and they use technical indicators as

a basis for almost all of their decisions. And so a lot of these uh quant programs are programmed by humans, and humans are looking at the technicals um and very little if any have fundamental basis uh and they are almost all speculative, which makes the cryptocurrency markets a beautiful

market to trade because you're basically trading on emotion. You're trading on fear and greed and and those two emotions and hope, right, and those two emotions are very very profitable to trade off of and very easy to trade off of because there's such there's such a reactive Uh, it's such a reactive method of trading. Yeah, I want to get into that. That's an important piece that I

wanted to touch on. But before we do so back to your original tweet, you talked about where the best investors are traders or traders shouldn't invest like investors and investors not like traders. But I think, um, there's one common trade that I like, and you talked about um having that thesis, and so I what I like that I see with traders as traders are getting in looking to get in at a certain entry and out at

a certain exit. And I think a lot of a lot of investors maybe a lot of times, like you said, it's not it's easier maybe right, So they just buy Amazons that's gonna go up, I'm gonna buy bitcoins is going to go up or whatever, but they don't really think about the exit, like at what point should I take a profit? What's my thesis? Do I believe that when I bought Amazon that I believe that e commerce was going to change the world in Amazon will be the leader? If so, I wait that long? Or do

I think I'm buying it? Bitcoin in ten thousand day and it's gonna go to twenty tho, I'm gonna sell out there, right, So what do you think about that, uh, that investing thesis that that I guess investors could learn from traitors. Well, it's that that's a that's a hard thing to really judge. Right when is the best time to sell? Right? Because people, people that bought it at twenty thous what if bitcoin goes to a million dollars, They're gonna look like a genius? Right, And I'm I'm

working on this post or this this article. Basically I did. I did a tweet about a week ago that said, given enough time, bitcoin is an asset that makes everyone look like a genius, no matter where they bought it at. And the whole concept is looking at every bubble of bitcoin, and everybody who bought at the top, no matter how high you know, at the very tippy top, is a genius unless you bought it twenty But we are rapidly approaching that. We are going to make them geniuses too.

And so if you bought it a hundred dollars before a crash down to you know, a dollar, you're still a genius because even if you held draw down and it went all the way to the current price. Now at ten thousand dollars, you still made a hundred extra turn on your money, a hundred dollars to ten thousand. If you bought at you know, two thousand dollars, you bought a five thousand dollars. If you bought at twenty

tho dollars. I think in five years, if, if, if, and when bitcoin gets to two hift dollars, you're still gonna look like an incredible genius because you've just ten extrar money. You've made a hundred percent on your money in one of the fastest great asset classes. And so that's really hard to say because holding holding bitcoin, I know, it's become a meme is very very difficulty. They say

it's super easy, but it's actually really really difficult. You have to have the gut in the fortitude of you know, a mercenary right. You have to really be able to hold through some massive draw downs. Bitcoin went from twenty thousand to three thousand. Most people capitulated. You could see the um. It's called the day the decay of of um.

It's like basically the time of decay for bitcoin. Hold alurs and and it's basically the amount of new money that comes into the amount of old bitcoin that gets exchanged. And I had the highest volume at three thousand, two hundred, and I said, I think a lot of the old holdelers who bought at you know, five hundred thousand dollars, I think they capitulated at because I thought. I think

they thought it was gonna go much much lower. And so it's really interesting because if you believe in the thesis and you believe that, you know, bitcoin can become a world currency, the sky is really the limit because now you're talking seven hundred billion dollars in derivative assets, and you're talking, uh, the you know, the monetary supply of the UK, the British pound, that the US dollar and all that stuff. So having an exit in mind

for bitcoin is very tough. I think that's probably one of the hardest assets to really kind of peg down. As a trader, you can definitely figure out when you want a time in and time out. And one of my thesis that I've always held true, and one thing that saved me in seventeen was if an investment or a trade, if you take profits and it's enough to change your life or change the circumstances of your life

for the better are on the table. I would always recommend at least taking that because you never know what's gonna happen. You never know, you know, tomorrow the whole UH landscape could change with regulations, fadd on ramps, all the steven things, and your investment that is, you know, basically set you up for life, or set you up for the next ten fifteen years to be able to live life to the fullest, have the freedom you want, retire from your job, you know, give you time to

find a new job. If you don't take that, UH, then then it's always gonna It's always gonna be in the back of your mind. It's always gonna beat you up if it if it crashes, or if the price turns around. And I think the biggest thing about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is fomo, the fear of missing out. I see people buying at the bottoms of you know, every single dip, every single dip, every single dip, because they're so afraid of missing that one candle that you know

it goes up with thousands. But the markets don't move like that. Bottoms don't form off of um you know, off of just one single candle. Typically bottoms take you know, time to form and so, and there's always time to enter into an uptrending market. I think you have a very famous quote of Rockefeller where he says he made the most money not by getting into earlier getting out, you know, getting into the bottom or getting out at

the top. He always made his money in the middle by just following the trend and then exiting before the before the top was formed. So that's kind of my investing thesis for bitcoin. I know, you know where my exit points are. I know where my entry points are, and you know, for me, it's it's about you know, making enough money to to form freedom. But I do have a portion of it where I just never touch it, right because my thesis is that bitcoin could eventually take

over as a global revert reserve currency. It's the best competition we've ever seen against the dollar, and the dollars is the best currency on in the world. And I don't think that, and I think that bitcoin has a good chance as long as the technology continues to evolve. But you know, that's my thesis and I can't recommend it for everybody. Now you mentioned um you mentioned how people are trying to foamoin at the bottom and they're trying to capture that candle catching knives as we like

to say. Um, it's it seems like it's really hard for people to be either a traitor or an investor because it goes against our own human intentions, right, Like we just wanna we we want to we want pleasure, we want to get away from pain. Um. And I know you've talked a lot about how actually technical analysis actually plays along with that human emotion you think, right, like the mathematical formulas somehow can predict that human emotion cycle. Yeah.

So Fibonacci is a perfect example. I've studying Fibonacci just in nature, but also apply to the markets and and sentiment. I created my own Fibonacci UH sequence. It's called the Canfield Fibonacci sequence. It's a it's a a sequence of numbers that apply to long term investing thesis. Um, you can google that online. But Fibinaci is really really interesting because those Fibonacci levels, the sixty one point eight percent ratio, the seventy eight point six ratio. I believe that these

are measurements of human emotion. When something is in a rally, it shows you exactly how euphoric people can be. And it turns around as specific um Fibonacci extension levels because it shows you how exuberant group of people can be or cohort or population. And then the retracements are showing exactly how fearful people can be, how how much are

people willing to sell down? In those ratios um I think are a direct reflection of human emotion, and and it quantifies human emotion, It quantifies reactionary uh, reactionary into into markets. And obviously you can say it's you know, self fulfilling prophecy. It could be algorithms that trade off of those levels, um, you know, chicken or the egg type of thing. Are we measuring human emotion? Are we

measuring uh, just quantifiable data that algorithms are using. You know, you can it can go one way or the other, but yeah, I believe that we have the human emotion piece, which I like to say volatility price going up and down is the difference between perception and reality. And so we perceived something to be like when bitcoin h we perceived it to be way further ahead, like it was ready to take over the world. But the reality is it wasn't, and so perception had to come down, price

had to come down. But then it overcorrected. So then bitcoin made massive advancements in regulation and technology and adoption, but then the perception obceived value was really low and so it went too far and and and it keep going back and forth. And I guess, uh what I like to say about that is also what you're saying with the Fibonacci's and so um, that's how it's reacting

between perception and reality. Yeah, uh more more based on like fear and greed and you know, euphoria, Like I would say, I would say fear and euphoria are kind of the two emotions that are the you know, the most applicable to trading and investing. When everyone is euphoric, that's when I, you know, typically like to try and find my exit points. And when everyone is depressed or

angry or fearful, that's the best time to buy. And we hear and we hear that all the time, like by when people are fear by, when people are fearful, so when people are greedy. But it's really hard to know that. But you're saying that you think you can track that using these fub nacis right, absolutely, well, you can also track it based on um. You can do

you can do a quant study based on emotion. Uh. You can do a quant study based on you know, like the in the fear and index greed um when to buy based on specific numbers, and you can actually do a calculation what if you bought, you know, when the fear in index three greed hits ten and you know what is the price of you know x uh, you know what is the price of bitcoin five days after, ten days after, twenty days after And you can actually quantify that data and build a trading thesis around it

or a trading plan or an investing plan um, just like you can do with the way that the markets are move up and move down. Um. So that's you can definitely apply emotion and sentiment to markets. The problem is when you get into liquid markets, sometimes there is no bottom. That's what's that's what we call price discovery.

The bottom can sometimes be zero um. And we saw this in the in the dot com era, and we saw this in the old coin market where yes, it's good to buy blood, but it's good to buy blood on something that has a fundamental basis, like you said, cash flow, assets, et cetera, where you know, if it goes down, you know that it has a fundamental thesis

behind it. And so that's something where you can try and buy the blood or by the by the by the try and buy the bottoms or cost average near the bottom, whereas some things just don't have a bottom because there's no fundamental uh thesis that holds them up. There's no cash flow, the project is dead, the developers have abandoned that, there's no there's no liquidity, it gets delisted from exchanges. There's lots of fundamental reasons why you

should not trade. And that's the problem that I see was a lot of traders that came from the markets is they see these all coins that went up eight nine hundred percent, and they're just trying to buy the bottom of a market that might not have a bottom, or the bottoms of zero or the or the bottoms of a zero. We saw, we saw a lot of coins on bit tricks that used to have incredible price reactions when you got to those all time low levels.

But it broke the all time lows, and you know, there was like six or seven projects that went to one SETOCE that was the bottom one SETOCE and then they got delisted. So now there's absolutely no liquidity. So you have to be really careful about what you're investing, and you met you want to make sure that there's enough liquidity to actually trade it or invest in it, because you want to be able to exit a position. You don't want to be stuck in a position where

you can't exit it. I made the mistake of buying into a like a privacy project on um what's what's it called Cryptopia, and Cryptopia got hacked in their exchangement down and that was the only place for liquidity. So with that investment, I couldn't or you know, with that trade,

I couldn't exit my position. So that's why now I look for things that have four or five, six, seven, eight exchanges and then I hold my trader, I hold my investment if it's a longer term play onto my wallet where then I can create an account on one of these six exchanges, and so I'm not dependent on one of these areas. And so that's kind of how it applies to crypto specifically. A is you really don't want to keep all your eggs on in one basket,

whether that's an exchange UM or you know. Yeah, yeah, Now back to the fear and greed and the five and Nachi's and whatnot. UM, I tend to I tend to agree with you on that, just because I've seen it play out over and over. But what about like bigger macroeconomic events. Like sometimes it's almost seemed like it's lined up with bigger events that like would be outside of youringreed almost black swan events, but like there's like

this like unique timing or or coincidence sometimes. Jesse Livermore arguably one of the best traders who's ever lived. He has an incredible book that he wrote back in the nineteen thirties nineties. UM. He believes everything is priced into the market, even black swans. Everything is priced in UH. And it's even more so now in the information age, where information is transmitted you know so quickly and spread so fast virally through social networks. But I've seen it

time and time and time again. Where you know technical indicators, it's showing, you know, a wedge pattern or a symmetrical triangle, or it's showing like a massive barished divergence where it's you know, everything's lining up, and then outcomes the news story where it then creates this catalyst that plays out perfectly with technical analysis, and you know you're in the

right side of the trade. The market tanks, you're you know, you're shorting the market, and it's like, you know, you see people going, man, Wow, how the hell did you know that was gonna happen. It's like, well, the technical analysis showed that this was, you know, this was the outcome that we were going to see, and sometimes it just takes the news story to kind of push it that way. The other the other side of that, and

I've done a lot of backs back testing research. Some people might remember, I had a CNBC chart showing the profitability of counter trading uh CNBC's headline tweets basically like every time they were super euphoric was at the very top of a peak. If you had short at every tweet where they had posted that, you would have made an incredible amount of money. And if you had long on every time they said bitcoin is dead, you would

have again made a lot of money. And so I do see times where you see like on CNBC or Fox or CNN on the market analysis, where for whatever reason, they are putting out news stories that are completely contra indicators to what what's going to happen in the markets. Uh, they put out like superbarished news stories right at the bottom of the market where it's like the technical indicators

are showing reversal. And it's for me, it's sometimes I wonder if if big money, smart money is just trying to you know, build their liquidity so they have you know, they create panic, or maybe maybe it's not so sinister. Maybe it's that they're chasing news headlines right there, trying to get viewers, and so they're picking up the most ufork story to run, so like it's it's an indicator of where fear and greed is because everyone's so greedy

that's making news. So they're finally, hey, we should run this. Everyone's greedy right now. Um, And maybe that's why it is. Yeah, I guess, I guess my take is a little bit more conspiratorial or cynical, and yours is just a little bit more uh make more logical. I guess, Uh, yeah, that's that's definitely possibly the case. I Mean I asked CNBC themselves, like about it, and they say, well, you know, we're just we just tweet what's in the market, you know.

But my my issue is these are trained analysts, trained investors. You know. Jim Kramer, he ran a hedge fund. There's a really famous YouTube video about him talking about how he used news stories to build positions, either short liquidity or long liquidity UM, and he said, you know, he would just send out a little uh tip to UH routers or Bloomberg or one of the analysts over there about you know, a rating that's going to happen on

you know, one of the stocks or whatever. And so for me, just the way understanding the way that the markets work and understanding the way that these these fund managers kind of build positions, and everything is about profit to them. So uh, you know, the retail trader is insignificant to what they're trying to achieve. Their their bottom line is to their their investors and to their shareholders. And so I would probably I I definitely look at the market as more of a conspiratorial Yeah. I want

to go back to something that you mentioned before. Everything is priced into the market. UM. I had ran a tweet, uh maybe a week ago where I basically said, everyone's

talking about the Havning coming up. Uh, they're talking about backed coming out, which they finally released, that they're coming out in September, UM, and and everyone's talking about this and and then there's like a lot of talk about front running that price UM, which maybe doesn't mean the price is already is the price is already in the market,

but that it's coming in. And I got into a debate with a guy about the Havning, Uh, the research that's been done by a Plan B a hundred trillion about UM the price going up on the Havnening, which is coming up next year. And so with with events like back or with events like the happening, I mean, don't you think like everyone is front running that so at some point that prices, like almost every price is already in the market. Basically what you said, the question

is who is everyone? Right? So Bitcoin, the market cap is insignificant. Gold is fourteen trillion, uh bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market market cap isn't even at a trillion dollars yet. So it's it's so small that I don't think that. I mean, we're a small population of people. And so yeah, maybe people that are priced in right now are front running it. The beautiful thing about trends is short term trends are manipulatable. You can manipulate them.

Mid term trends somewhat manipulatable, and a market like crypto for sure. But long term trends five years, ten years, twenty years, thirty years, fifty years, those are not manipulatable. It takes way too much money to manipulate a trend that goes that long. And so the data is there that shows exactly what has happened every prior time. And uh, you're a fan of history, it doesn't you know, repeat,

but it often rhymes. And so all you can do is really use that data to make your best educated guess as to what's going to happen in the future. Nobody has a crystal ball, no analyst um especial. I mean you can you know that's true because two thousand eight, very very few people there was a movie, The Big Short, where only a handful of firms made billions of dollars off that off that short um and everybody else was caught blindside it. The same thing is true with bitcoin.

I think bitcoin is gonna blindside a lot of people. I think that, uh, nobody really has any clue. And I know that because I've been in the market for three and a half years and I've kind of rubbed shoulders with the top developers, the top traders, the top investors, the top hedge fund managers that are in cryptocurrencies. Nobody really has any any clue what bitcoin is capable of, especially in a recession, especially uh, with all these trade talks,

especially with all this stuff. So I don't know that. Sure, you can, you know, estimate what's going to happen with the having, but bitcoin is a deflationary currency, and it's and as you did a podcast with Mark Usko, it's schmuck insurance against against a against the system. And we just we were at twenty two trillion dollars in debt or twenty four trillion whatever. I can't even remember the number. It's going up so fast. We just don't know what

the potential of bitcoin is. And I think the most important thing that I've learned is it's cheaper to own it and not need it than it is to need it and not own it. I think that that's you know, that that's the kind of the way that I view bitcoin is it is insurance because you just don't know the potential or how valuable it's going to be until

you need it. Right. So, in Statoshi's a white paper for bitcoin, the creator of bitcoin, he wrote a white paper and in the white paper he said, Um, not exactly, but he said, Uh, wouldn't it make sense to get some just in case it catches on or something like that? Yeah? Exactly. Yeah, Yeah, wouldn't it make sense just to get some just in case? Is what he said. And that's kind of what you're saying the insurance. I like that. Great. Well, I know

we're running along here. Let's just ask maybe one more question. So, uh, for those people that are listening and you know, they're not sure where they're at investing, trading, Like you said, in trading, it can be very difficult. It takes a lot of i q um. But for people who think they would want to try and do better than just buying and holding blindly, what would you recommend for them? I mean, should they stay away from trying to buy in and out at all? Or is there some really

basic stuff they could do or what would you recommend? Yeah? So, um, first off, I would recommend at least trying to learn technical analysis because it makes investing so much easier when you can actually, you know, be able to look at a chary understand where the trend lines are, where where the support and resistance is um And for me, the easiest and most brain dead strategy is by when it's above the two day moving average and sell when we

break the two day moving average. That strategy is just so simplistic and obviously you don't have to sell right

when across the tunter day moving average. It's a lagging indicator, but it's such a simplistic way to uh, to be safe, to be on the safer side, because when it breaks that tuorter day moving average, typically the intermediate the mid term trend is up and one as we break that to a moving average, typically it has you know, six especially bitcoin, uh, you know, six to eighteen months of of a nice up trend, and it just keeps you out, It keeps you out of trying to buy every single bottom,

trying to time. The other aspect is um as you know, dollar cost averaging. But my my, my strategy is not dollar cost averaging. At any point in time, I try and dollar cost average as close as possible to the two hundred weekly moving average, because that is a historically a very very strong reversal point on in any market. UM. And so when when you look at bitcoin, Bitcoin actually bottomed out at the level on the two hundred weekly

moving average, and so did Amazon. Amazon pulled back hundred weekly moving averages where it bounced, uh the SMP five hundred, two hundred weekly moving average. And so if you can dollar cost average as close to possible as that two hundred weekly moving average, UM, I think that's where that's where most of the money can be captured as close

to the bottom as possible. And uh, and when you break that, you under weekly moving average to the downside, UM, that's where it you may be entering a price discovery mode. And I would, UM, I would wait until that's recaptured before I would really start putting a lot more money in UM. Personally, So to summarize that, you think the average person could start by just learning one simple thing, like a moving average strategy and maybe just try to

like get good at that before they overcomplicate things. I think that so I've I've run the gamut right when I started. I started in options and options is pretty complex. You have to learn all these different strategies, the straddle, the the iron condor. I mean, there's all kinds of different names for him hedging, you know, buying longs and puts at the same time, breaking, I mean, all kinds of different stuff. Then I went into you know, price

action trading. Then I went into UH indicator analysis, and then I went into geometric sacred geometry like again, analysis, fractal analysis, fractal energy, I mean, all kinds of stuff. And after all that, ten years of learning all these crazy things and pain, probably a hundred thousand dollars to mentors and courses and all, my strategy has really just come down to really really simple things. Our side, moving averages, support and resistance. I mean that's basically all I use

for almost everything. And then I've just built a strategy in a system around it that gives me a better edge than So. Yeah, so after going through all that stuff, really and what I would really say is find one thing and master it. Whether it's our side, whether it's moving averages. Find a guy who wrote a book on moving averages. Find a guy who's made you know, millions

of dollars on just moving averages and study it. What most people do is a hop from system to system to system to system, and they never really take enough time to master that one thing, um, you know. And that's what I would say, is just focus on one indicator. One makes me think that Bruce Lee quote right, like a fear of the man, and who's practiced one minute one kick ten thousand times, not ten thousand kicks one time or something like that exactly. And that's that's the

problem that I see with most traders. They literally just hop system to system to system the system and they never they never master any one thing. But I think the biggest thing is, you know, they have to all these different systems because they're trying to find a system that fits for them. And that's like I said, skill level, time commitment. Um. You know, most traders they come in

and they only have an hour a day. You know, they're part time, they're working and there you know, and maybe some some people that are listening, you know, they're they're they're at you know, they have job, they have families. They can't stay in front of a trading terminal twelve to eighteen hours a day like I can. Um. And I think that's a big part of of finding those systems. Great. Yeah, that's uh, that's that's good advice right there. Just look

at the moving average. Learn one thing. I know you've you like you said, you've kind of boiled it down to three or four things that you're good at. Now, well ahead and wrap this up now. I know you just put out something on trading View that rapidly rose to the ranks number one on Trading View and it kind of actually shows when to buy and sell using just maybe two strategies. So recommend people to go check

that out on Trading View. I think you also have like a real kind of like introductory course on t A that people can jump in. Do you want to talk about where people can find out more about you? Yeah? I reallysed this course. It's called the twenty one Day Crypto Trader Challenge, And what it is is it's a it's twenty one days of of study to learn how to trade cryptocurrencies. And what it was is it's not designed to create to make you into this advanced trader.

It's it's really designed to just create a foundation of knowledge. And so the biggest thing that I see is most people they jump into trying to learn technical analysis. And technical analysis is one part of about eight parts of a good trader. UH. The other parts that I think are even more important are UH psychology, discipline, risk management. Risk management is very key. There's an entire module on

risk management. When it comes down to UH, you know, basically win loss ratio, your position sizing, UM, all those different things, and then tracking your trades. And so what I did was I put this twenty one day Crypto Trader Challenge, and I priced it very very affordably. I wanted everybody to be able to UH to join, and it's only a hundred bucks. And what it does, it just gives you everything you need to know about how to you know, how to basically build a foundation of

knowledge for trading. And then what you can do is you can take all that information and then start to learn the more advanced strategies like actual how to build out a trading plan. But you at least you're introduced to all these concepts and you can master the foundation or the you know, the building blocks, and then you can go out and become really really good traders. So yeah, Crypto Trading Challenge dot com we do one once about every three months. We take on a bunch of traders.

They go through the course and then we do a live Q and a session afterwards. Cool and trading View is just Jacob Canfield. I think trading View dot com slash you slash Jacob Canfield, um, and then yeah Twitter Jacob Canfield. Cool. All right, thanks so much, Jacob, appreciate you coming on. It's great talking to you. Thanks guys. Hey, if you like this episode of The Market Disruptors Podcast, please help us take this to the top of the podcast charts. Just please do me a favor and rate,

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