Joined by our friend and smart weather guy Dave Frasier from Box thirty one.
Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon. I really enjoyed the Richard Simmons segment at the top of the show.
But you know what, what exercise do you? Hey, Dave? Everybody has one.
Let me put it this way. Have you ever heard of the comedian Johnsanette, Like you said, guy talks all about food and exercise.
I have not. I'm gonna have to go look him up.
Check out jumping at He's fantastic and he first life tried to lose weight and he hired a trainer and the trainer said, we're going to start with some push ups and some sit ups. And he stopped and he said, listen, I don't do upuse I do down.
All right, then there's my exercise routine. Okay, no problem then. So I just want to say a big fat thank you. This weather right now is spectacular. How long do we get to keep this.
For the next week? The seven day forecast, even I could extend that out to ten days, shows that that's staying dry. We just don't see any pattern shifts coming. It is a little warm. We're running about ten degrees above normal, and it is still possible that tomorrow and maybe on Sunday, we could reach ninety again, which isn't the latest we've seen a ninety degree temperature, but it's certainly something most people don't want to deal with. But
I've been stressing the last few days. While those temperatures are very warm for this time of the year and it has been dry, the reality is it's not like summer heat, right because you're loving it because you go into the evenings and it just cools down so quickly, and the organizer are so refreshing. So that's the benefit of September, all right.
I have a question from a listener that texts in a little bit, Mandy. Can you ask Dave Frasier about weather conditions that create jet contrails. Some days there are lots of them, other days not so much.
It just has to do with the moisture and the high upper atmosphere when we have a day, let's take today for instance. If you have a day like today and it's completely sunning outside and you're looking up, I mean there's nothing but blue skies overhead. The air over us right now is extremely dry, so the number of jets going in and out of di Ia, flying over Colorado the same today as they were yesterday. If you add in moisture at higher levels, then the contrails will
become more visual and evidence. So it's just a matter of moisture in the atmosphere, and right now we're just too dry for that. So I mean, look up at the sky. You know there's planes out there, no evidence that they're flying around. But if we see the little higher humidity into the higher atmosphere, the contrails, the pressurization of the jet kind of condensing the moisture in the air, then you can see the streets in the sky. So just not the setup we have mass. It's all about moisture.
Okay. So I wanted to ask you. We've got Hurricane Helene barreling towards the Gulf coast of Florida, and you know it's going to hit my friends in my hometown, not directly, but they're going to have a lot of rain and wind. This hurricane season has been far quieter than was anticipated. Far quieter, yep, yep.
Yeah. As a matter of fact, I lean only the sixth hurricane and it's going to be the second one for that area. I don't know if you'll remember. Debbie hit back there in the Big Bend area of Florida on August fifth of this year, so they haven't had
much of a break there in the Panhandle. Debbie was only a Category one when it came ashore near Tallahassee and it caused a lot of damage related to flooding, and then it kind of went cut across Georgia and went back into the Atlantic before turning back into the Carolinas. This one's going to be stronger. We're talking about potentially
a Category three hurricane. So the yes are going to be you know, up past one hundred and ten to maybe one hundred and thirty, So you're going to have more wind component, you are going to have movine flying from heavy rain, but also from the storm surge that riseing water that comes ashore. They're also warning of rip currents, dangerous rip currents because the storm's coming in perpendicular to the coast and so the waves will be curling away
from the coast course. That's only an issue if people go into the water, and they will Ridians, yeah, they will.
There will be people that will go into the water. I can tell you that now.
I know. It's just amazing. You see these waves in it's a category two or a three, and there they are. I've just kind of taken advantage of the syrup.
Category three can can do is extremely destructive. I moved to southwest Florida right after Hurricane Charlie, which was a Category three when it made landfall at Puntagoda, Florida. And when you drove down I seventy five, the eye of the storm had tracked directly over I seventy five after it came in off of the coastline, and on one side of I seventy five, all of the you know those giant light poles they have on an interstate, They're massive.
All of the trees on the on the one side were flattened in one direction, and all of the trees and light poles on the other side were flattened in the opposite direction.
Oh yeah, it was crazy.
I mean, it was like what just happened here? Because you know it was it was really really it destroyed that entire part of Florida. But it's rebuilds even better. So there you go. You never know, Putz Border wasn't exactly nice before.
Yeah, this area is this area has been hard hit, I mean Adelia back in August of twenty twenty three, and then you had hurricanes hit that same area in twenty sixteen, seventeen, and eighteen. So that part of the country, as you're well aware, it just doesn't get a break. And so this one will also bring heavy rain. Some of the heaviest rain will be on the northwest side of the storm, which is typical, and that's going to drive heavy rain as much as a foot up towards
Atlanta not even have urbanized flooding. Yeah, it can be just a huge problem for those folks as well. So and you know, I did you mentioned that it's been a little quiet. I'm no hurricane expert, having you know, forecast most of my career inland, but I've been reading some published papers and stuff, and one of the compounding factors they believe is saharan dust, a lot more of it in the upper atmosphere drifting over the Atlantic and not allowing the waters to warm to the levels that
they had expected. So the forecast for the hurricane season has been reduced a couple of times because of that. The number of hurricanes and the number of main storms and the number of major storms. A Category three would be a major storm.
Oh, that's a major storm. That's a I would not I'll stick around through a Cat too, but I will not stick around through a Cat three because it's it's incredibly destructive and it's going to be incredibly destructive when it lands. So I got one more question from a listener, I want to get in before we go here. Can the direction of the wind preceding a thunderstorm predict the
direction the storm is moving? And this is like, okay, so I am south of here, and when the storms are coming from the north, the wind is whipping up from the south. So does that mean that the wind is what pulling it? How does that work?
So no, it's not going to tell you the direction it's moving. The direction the storms are going to move is based on the mid level winds that are pushing them along. They can also form on a cold front, so they'll line up along the cold front and march as a team. But generally what you have is you have a giant vacuum, so the wind ahead of the storm is being sucked in. So as the storm is approaching to you, the wind is probably going to come from you to the storm, so it's drawing the wind up.
So depending on your location, that wind could be coming in from an easterly direction or a southeasterly direction. As the storm passes, you can get a cold outflow and the wind will go in the opposite direction. We track out flowed boundaries all the time, So the wind within the individual thunderstorm is going to be erratic. It's going to be sucking in ahead of it and potentially blowing out behind it, and those directions are going to change.
But the overall movement of the thunderstorms is going to be driven by generally a southwesterly wind, so storms will migrate from southwest to northeast in most instances. Not always the case. You can always get what we call a backdoor cold front, so it's not always indicative of which way the storm is going to move, all right.
Dave Frasier another informative. Oh, we didn't even ask what our weather is going to be, like, I guess we kind of brushed on a little bit talking about how nice it is. So no big one coming up, is what you're saying.
Yeah, No, you know, A Rod was asking me about Halloween any chance it's going to be nasty. You know. The outlook for October still looks warm and drier than normal. That's been the pattern through September. Our first freeze is usually the seventh of the month of October. We just don't see that happening. Our first snow is the eighteenth. I think that's a stretch this year, so you just may have to wait for a little more of the fault. Whether we enjoyed this past weekend, all right.
Dave Frasier, We'll talk to you next week, my friend.
Thanks Manning,