As the Fox thirty one chief meteorologist. We just call him Dave. Dave Frasier. It's a dark and gloomy day here in the Denver metro. When will the horrible weather break?
Let's let it go for a little while longer.
I'm actually enjoying this and it has been beneficial, there's no question about that.
So yeah, we're going to continue.
With the showers.
They'll probably take until later this evening to finally dry up.
There's a few of them out there on radar still, especially at just south of downtown.
Foothills are still seeing wet weather.
Northern Front Range has some showers up near Fort Collins, and we're seeing a few on the south side down towards Castle Rock.
But I think it's been it's been exactly what we needed, Maddie. I I nobody knows that and was ready for it.
Well. I told people earlier that when you come into Colorado the first time, they make you sign a document that says if you complain about the rain, you have to end it by saying, but we need the moisture. So that's where we are. But we need the moisture, so we're getting a lot of snow in the high country. How much of an impact will this have because our right now, our average snowpack levels are not great.
They aren't, but you know, we've been talking about that. So you basically load the mountains through about April seventh, and then after April seventh you start the melting process. So any additional snow beyond April seventh is helpful. What we're seeing is snowpack numbers that are below where we should be for the melting curve, being we've melted it
off pretty quickly. And I think the reason we've melted it off sooner than maybe we should have is because March and April were so dry, and we did have periods of warm stretches.
We weren't you know, we weren't.
Breaking records left and right for high temperatures, but we did have above normal temperatures with sunny days and that went into getting the melting process starting sooner. And so your bell curve, if you will, for where we should be in the melting process is definitely lower than where we should because we've melted owner.
So this moisture certainly will help a little bit.
Does it push the.
Snow melt pack back up one hundred percent.
Probably not, but consider it a cherry on top if you will. It's a bonus and it's been melting. Fortunately, there have not been a lot of travel problems, even though advisories were issued in the mountains. Most of the issues were leigh up high past nine thousand feet. We were in the mountains last night with our pimploy weather bees and the roads were just basically wet. So it was kind of a win win, right, You're getting the moisture.
Getting the snow.
You know, there's still skiing.
Available in the mountains.
This will you know, go to that people running up, you know, maybe late this week to do a couple more turns. But I think this storm has been exactly what we needed.
Well, let me ask you about snow melt in general, because I still don't quite understand what conditions exist to create the flash flood scenes that we've seen, you know, in the last decade on occasion, not very often. So if we've already had some melt, is that for river conditions for rafting and things like that, or are we taking too soon?
Do you know what I mean?
I'm kind of asking what is the perfect melt cycle? What does that look like? Compared to where we are now.
I mean, the worst case scenario for rivers and streams and the mountains to come up would be a heavy kind of warm rain on top of the snow. So you've got the heavy water equivalent of the rain and you're melting the snow at the same time, and that would increase stream flow. Generally, if we get a really big spike, you can get a lot of melting and streams and rivers will come up very quickly. So it's there's still though, even though we're below where we should
be for the path. I think even you know, just a layman can look at the mountains and know there's still a lot of snow up there in the right, so we can melt it away.
So yeah, I mean, you don't want to put the you know.
You don't want to take a magnifying glass in the sun and point it at the Colorado Mountains and melt everything off at once. That would be that would be horrible and you would have problems and stuff. And obviously the bigger concerns are the streams and the creeks and the rivers that run through you know, narrow narrow corridors, and you know, where the water can't really fan out. It has to go up because of the you know, the steep terrain around it, So.
You know those I think the worst.
Case scenario would be a heavy rain event on top of melting snow.
Okay, I got a question from a texture or are they texted the Commons Burial of checks line at five sixty six nine? Oh hey, Mandy, I live on top of Monument Hill, which I always consider to be the Palmer Divide. What does Dave consider to be the Palmer Divide?
The Palmer Divide is? I consider it Monument Hill as well. They actually call it the Black Forest Divide.
Some people do down there, so if you know where black Forest is, they kind of call it basically Monument Hill is the peak.
It's marked right on the highway.
The elevation, I believe it's seventy three fifty three and it's highest point there.
So for me, when I think.
Of the Palmer.
Divide, there is a rise in elevation.
If you look at a three dimensional map of Colorado, you'll see this little terrain feature that we call the Palmer Divide that comes east west from the foothills and.
Kind of rises up.
So the spine of it would be Monument Hill, and then it stands all the way out to the Lineman on the eastern plains. And so you have a rise in elevation that starts as you depart Denver, certainly as you start to go over Surrey Ridge, so you're passing Lincoln Avenue, you're climbing up to the Castle Pines Parkway exit. You dip a little bit into Castle Rock, but even
there you're up in elevation. And then as you turn the corner and head towards the larksbur and Greenland, you start to make that next line as you pass County Line Road and go from Douglas County and continue.
South, and then you hit the big up.
All of that is arise and it goes off to the east and it kind of stands away. So instead of being a north south oriented foothills Hogback mountains, you've got this east west feature that is also a rides and elevation kind of like a mini mountain, if you will, and the top of that is Monument Hill. There we go.
That is an excellent answer to that question, very thorough. I have another question when we're like we are right now, and you could I mean ifeasibly, there are definitely. We just got a text earlier from someone in Woodland Park who said it's snowing like the dickens down there. When you're in that range where you could easily switch from snow to rain. This is, as I'm about to ask this question, I realize how stupid it is. You're still talking about the same amount of moisture though, right if
it's snow, if it's rain, it's the same water. It's just temperature that has changed things.
Yeah, so let me I'll just answer this business.
It literally can be a few feet different. You can literally drive along a rise in elevation and watch the snow line come in your direction where it's grass, and then all of a sudden, a couple of feet away at snow, and then as it goes up in elevation, the snow is there. We call it a QPS, a quantitative precipitation. Forecat, we're dealing with liquid all the time.
The question becomes when you're factoring your snow. As you take that liquid, you've heard this before, and then you have to extrapolate it out to if a tenth of an inch was to become snow, how much snow could it become. And generally you do a ten to one ratio. If it's cold, it could be a twenty to one ratio. So the liquid amount is what we're always dealing with where it's the toughest part in any of a forecast.
Right, QPF forecast the liquid amount. Here's the difference.
If you miss the forecast by let's say a tenth of an inch on a rainy day, you're not going to know it unless you go out and shut your rain gage because it's just going to run down the street.
But if you miss that.
Tenth of an inch forecast, and that can be another inch or ten inches of snow.
It's a big because you go outside and.
You're expecting four inches and you're shoveling a foot. So we're dealing with the same tough forecast. It's just a matter of is it running down and soaking in or is it stacking up?
And I got to shovel. It doesn't matter rain or snow. It's a QPF liquid forecast.
As I saw Chad, now we're leaving yesterday and I said it's a gloomy day chat and he said, better this than snow. And he was absolutely right. Fox News, You've now Fox News, Fox thirty one chief meteorologist Dave Frasier joys always. We'll talk to you again next week.
Anthwley, I'm off next week, but I'll talk to New week after.
I hope you have a lovely vacation.
It's my vacation.
I got to go get a kid out of college who's graduating. It's a big yay. Hey, let's get her done.
Exact about it.
You almost got that one off the payroll that has caused for celebration no matter how you look at it. All Right, Dave, have a great time. We'll talk to you in a couple of weeks.
Alight.
All right, That my friends is Dave Fraser will be right back.