We've got Box thirty one's Dave Frasier on the phone lines.
Hello Dave, Hey, good afternoon.
Hope you enjoying it.
You know what good afternoon it is. I don't know where you mail ordered this weather from, but it is a okay with me. How much longer do we get to enjoy it?
Two more days?
Two more days?
See day Friday.
I just want to remind people, if you're out and about today, take a good glance at these snow capped mountains. And I'm not saying the mountains are ugly during the summer, but aren't they so much prettier when they've got snow sitting on the top of them like they do today. I made a note of that this morning when I was driving in and I was like, dang, they're pretty. I want to remind people to take a minute and just appreciate the beauty of the front range if you have the opportunity.
Yeah, and it's definitely a chamber of commerce picture. There's no question about that. Blue sky's overhead, white capped mountains. You know, it'd be great if we were a little deeper in the spring and everything down here and already greened up and blossomed out. But just looking at those mountains too, you'll notice it's deep snow. You can tell with your deep snow. And so for the Front Range, while other parts of the state are struggling for their
water supply, we're still looking pretty good. Even though it has been a dry March. There's no question about that. And I was just sitting here crunching all the numbers for March. As we get close to the end of the month, we're definitely going to get into the record books. The question is where, So what are.
We looking at in the parts of the state that are not snow packed properly? What are what kind of levels are we seeing and what does that mean?
So it just has to go with the water supply. You know, we have eight river basins where the mountains feed into those basins, and so the southern and southwestern part of the state are struggling at less than sixty percent of normal. You have close to ninety ninety plus to the northwest corner, and then the Front Range is doing pretty good still in the ninety percent stile. Remember we load all the way through early April, so we
can still add to that and boost those numbers. But to be that close to one hundred percent of normal is pretty good. And all of that obviously melts off, turns into recreations for the rivers, the streams, the creeks, fishing, wrapping, and so but more importantly, it fills the reservoirs and gives us the water supply should we stay on a dry note. And quite frankly, you know the outlook for March. I've told you this time and time again. Don't put a lot of effort or emphasis on those long range
models thirty sixty ninety. It can give you a pattern kind of a look, but it doesn't tell you anything about the day to day. And so you think about a couple of months. February, for instance, we had one big snowstorm and that was enough to get us through the month. March is not delivered. We've had less than an inch of snow. We're struggling with only a quarter of an inch of moisture. However, one last push this weekend, we have a chance Saturday and Sunday to pick up
some needed moisture. Right now, it looks to be all in the form of rain, and it could be up to a half an inch and if that's the case, that would get us off the driest list for March, which would be fantastic. And the timing is perfect, get some moisture as things are starting to the you know, leaves are thinking about budding out and the grasses trying to get you know, become on doormant and green up a little bit. So the timing of this weekend's rain
would be perfect. The question and we have is where's that snow line? Because it is still March and it can drop down, and so we're watching that closely to see if there could be a mix maybe on the south and west side of town above six thousand, or could it accumulate to a slushy couple of inches. Those are the questions we have to answer in the next few days. All right.
I got a question from a text on the Common Spirit Heal text line at five sixty six nine Ohero question for Dave F. The National Weather Service is reducing balloon launches at some sites, including in Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska. How will this impact models as well as human forecasting? And I want to add to that question and ask
what are we using the weather balloons for? It almost seems archaic in the time of all these super duper Doppler radar seven thousands that we have all over the place.
Well, the weather balloons have instrumentation attached to them as they leave the ground and go through the atmosphere, and those instruments are taking slices of the atmosphere temperatures, wind de point, humidity levels, and all of those factor into what the atmosphere looks like. Vertically, that information is plugged into computer models to help analyze the atmosphere, and then the computer models extrapolate that out to give us what
we call our guidance. Different computer models have different algorithms set into them, and that's why you have variations in forecasts. Some computer models will you know, go crazy with certain things, others will be a little more restricted, and it's our
job as meteorologists to look into that. I do you know, there is a concern that if we lose too much of that valued upper atmosphere data, then it could skew the models, giving us, you know, a real headache in trying to interpret what might be happening in the future,
predicting you know, the forecast, so to speak. It's not a crisis right now, what we're watching closely in we're in partnership, and I talk with our friends up in Boulder at the National Weather Service is where they may make cuts, what jobs may be eliminated, and does that have anything to do with public safety. That's my concern, you know, I don't want I want the forecast to be as accurate as possible, and that's why I spend hours digging through model data and details and looking at
as much as I can. You could, literally, Mandy, spend eight hours looking at the variations and models and the details, finite details, and never get a forecast complete. At some point you have to make a decision right and move on. And so, you know, I spend as much time as I can, and then I'll tweak it, don't I don't just throw it down on paper and walk away. I'll throw it down on paper and go back and look
at it and updated with new model data. But again, I'm not terribly concerned at this juncture about those weather balloons and the data. But I am concerned if the National Weather Service loses frontline people who may be doing nothing more than watching radar closely to determine if the storm is going to hail. If it's got lightning, could have produced a tornado and not getting those warnings out.
By the way, we can see that same data with our set, but they are the governing body responsible for alerting the public to those dangers.
Let me ask one.
More question, and we only have a couple of minutes left here, but it's a question I have and this one said Mandy. I saw the closed cloud formation the other day. It was like a stack of pancakes. I think it's called lenticular Can you ask Dave what causes that? And is that something that happens mostly in Colorado And I'm going to be from the east coast. I had never seen those until I was I got here.
Yeah, so it is. It is just that lenticula. Think about the curve of a lens, like a like a
you know, your glasses or a contact lens. And what happens is the wind flow comes out of the west over the mountains, and as it curls up and over the peaks, if there's just the right amount of moisture as it's curving, it condenses that moisture into a cloud because it's lifting it over the peak, and so you get these flying saucer or lenticular looking clouds, and if the wind is strong enough, you can get them in.
Like your listener asked, it can look like pancakes. So you could have one of the lower elevation one a little higher. They could be dotted down the entire Front Range mountains, and they are one of the coolest cloud formations when they happen. And yes, you're right, those of us from the east who grew up there, you got to come west to be able to see that beauty?
Is that because like the Smoky mountains aren't high enough or they're not rocky like our mountains are. They're tree covered for the most part, or any amount of humidity.
Why does it only happen here?
What?
So you need a mountain, I'm guessing, and you need that upslope wind.
So yeah, it's the height of our mountains.
Okay, you know, okay, you know.
This is This is fine, this is I couldn't believe the statistic one I heard years and years and years ago. So our mountains, as we know, we have peaks that reached thirteen fourteen thousand feet in the atmosphere are fourteen ers. Right, do you know that the tallest mountain from base to the top. You know where it is, isn't it?
Isn't it one of the Hawaiian islands.
No, it's actually I'm pretty sure it's Mount Washington in New Hampshire. What so, Yeah, I'm pretty sure. I'll I'll double check, but I'm almost positive it's Mount Washington in New Hampshire. And so it's the face of the mountain is more than six thousand feet tall. Where our mountains slope up, you go up the footage right right, ten thousand, you go up to eleven thousand. You know, you start skiing and you go up, so you think about it. You're you know, the base of the mountains are not
all the way down to the ground. They're they're already elevated as you climb up to those fourteen ers.
Oh, I got it.
So it's its height versus tall.
Got it? I understand?
Dave.
One last text, Yeah it does.
Before I let you go, Dave makes a sound that sound like forecasting the weather is a science rather than looking outside to.
See if the rock is wet or dry.
If only it was just the rock is wet or dry, that would be it. Dave Fraser, we appreciate you. We'll talk to again next week, my friend.
All right, keep an eye on your rock and enjoy the next couple of days, all right, Thanks Dave, That is Dave Fraser.