It's fine for weather Wednesday with Iman Fox thirty one Chief meteorologist Dave Fraser. Dave, we don't worry about that. We usually I forgot to tell Zach's filling in for a Rod, and I forgot to tell him. We usually just come back with that intro. But it's okay, we'll get it next week day next time.
Yes, how is it's like next week?
Yeah? There you go.
How are you?
Dave Fraser?
I'm going, well, how are you doing? Mandy?
I'm doing nice. I gotta tell you, I have enjoyed the heck out of the last few days. How incredibly pleasant this weather is for winter? I mean, lees, this is very nice. When is it going to go away?
Starting over the weekend? Slowly over the weekend, we'll see the temperatures coming down, and then it does look to trend colder next week. So we've enjoyed yet a nice, nice little break from the winter. I'm seeing parts of my lawn that I haven't seen for the entire month of January. Yes, no, and the piles and finally melted away. So no, it's been fantastic. We started the month at fifty six last Saturday. Then we went to sixty seven last Sunday sixty eight. Monday yesterday was a little chilly
with that low clouds and fog. We're only in the thirties forties. However, if you're on the south and west side of town down where I live on the south side of town.
We're still in the fifties.
So it just depends on your location. And we're back in.
The sixties today.
So yeah, fifties and sixties through the end of the week and then next week get ready for some thirties but no Arctic blast and periods of snow, but no organized storm till maybe next Tuesday we might get some light snow.
I got a very specific texture question for you that I think we might be a little too far out to answer, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. Mandy, I live in the Springs and need to travel the long lunch on Valentine's Day. Well, we have snow on February fourteenth, and will it affect my travel plans?
So it is outside of the seven day to give me anything anytime I get viewer emails like that that are outside of anything that I have confidence.
In, unless I know there's a strong pattern.
Of quiet days or something like that. I tend not to want to give them too much hope or anything, you know that is a little bit outside right now of our seven day forecast, I will say that as I look at the trend for next week, while we'll dip into the thirties and we'll maybe have some lights in the middle of the week, I do always look out ten days, but again, the confidence drops off after
you get past seven. And I do see a dryer pattern as we get towards next Friday, which is Valentine's Day a week from this coming Friday, and it does look dry and it doesn't look like temperatures will come back up into the forties. So at this point I would say, looked in good, but don't put your hat on it just yet.
There you go. I want to ask, honestly, I can't remember if it was yesterday the day before, but we had a big brown cloud over the front range. Was that just an ozone situation? What causes those brown cloud days to what? It just settles on to the front range.
So I think that you're talking about yesterday.
Yesterday wasn't It was a little bit of pollutants, but more it was kind.
Of like a dirty hage. Yeah, we had very We had very cold air Arctic are that slid into the Midwest.
That clipped the northeast corner. Think of Sterling julesbd up the ice seventy sixth quarter and they.
Were entrenched in this low.
Dense cloud deck on Monday when we were in the sixties. And then yesterday the wind turned out of the east northeast and pushed.
All of that back to Denver. So Denver's official high at the airport yesterday was only thirty sixth degrees.
Wow, it was that.
Low cloud deck that you're talking about.
There was a foggy, kind of cold, misty hay that may have had some pollutants trapped in it that made it look like a brown cloud. It wasn't a perfect brown cloud setup, but it certainly was an ugly looking sky for the better part of your Tuesday and night.
So you said that wasn't pollutants, So what exactly makes that? Is it just dust and other crap or what makes it look like that?
No, it is probably the pollutants trapped in that cold dense there in the lower level. So it was a little bit of that, But a brown cloud generally what we have is we have a flipped atmosphere where instead of it the temperatures dropping as you rise, you've got warmer air sitting over top of cold air, and that can happen as a long flow out of the Westerns over the top of the mountains and traps all the
air blow range. And that's when we think of a brown cloud, and then everything it's like it's a lid. It's like somebody slid a sliding glass door over the top of the mountains and trapped all of the ballutants in the lower atmosphere, and you get this ugly brown cloud and it's all of the pollutants that are just trapping can't lift and mix out of the atmosphere. So yesterday I was not that this was more of a
coldnessty hay spot. When you're dealing with that type of a static, kind of calm atmosphere, pollutants can be mixed in with that, no question about it.
Okay, let me ask this question from a texture. It says, I've got a serious weather question. If we can't tell what the weather is going to be tomorrow with some sort of accuracy, how can we tell what it's going to be in ten or fifty years with the entire climate. Explain that Dave in the terms of climate is different than weather, but weather makes up climate correct, Yes, exactly.
I mean the climate climate is a is what you would expect in a certain part of the world based on you know, thirty year trends or longer trends. So you know, you can take the oceans, for instance, west coast or in the east sides of ocean oceans that flow to west coast borders, like our west coast is cold. The other flip side of that is warm. So you have bodies of water circulation that have influence and the weather storm tracks move from west to east what part
of the globe you're in. So the climate is what you would expect. So in Colorado, you would expect it to snow in the winter. In the summer, you would.
Expect it to be hot in Florida. So those are the expectations.
The record, the forecast for weather, the variability of weather is the forecasting within the next seven to ten days.
The climate is the global picture of what might be happening.
And they do run sophisticated climate models to kind of take a look at White Mighty happening in patterns for years to come. But I you and I have taught there's just not a lot of components from where.
I sit, because we talk about eight to fourteen day.
Outlooks and monthly outlooks and three month outlooks, and barely ever did they tell you about that day to day.
Variability of weather. I'll just give it right.
The month of February is on track as a month outlook.
About the entire month is on track to be warmer and drier than normal. And we've had four day three days in the.
Sixties and one day in the fifties, so five days in you would think that's on track. However, the next eight to fourteen days shows it to be colder and wetter than normal.
So again, know, the day to day variability is what we're.
Left with to you know, that's my job. What is going to happen for the next seven to ten days?
Okay? So and you know, I'm I think that, I mean, I've talked about this a lot on my show. I think the climate modeling is sort of like just it's an educated crystal ball. There's a lot that goes into it, But until we get one thousand years more data, solid data. I think it's going to be really impossible for us to really extrapolate out exactly what may happen in the near future. I have one more, We'll go ahead.
No, I mean that is true. When you have a model, it is designed and has algorithms in it to calculate what you enter into it and what that might look like in the future. That model is based on a bunch of standards. However, you're inputting the data, and if that data changes or that data is wrong, the output of that model is certainly not going to be correct either. And those are the challenges of model exactly.
One last question before we run out of time, Dave, and this one is a good one. I think, wait, hang on it, We've got an update here. Does smoke from the fires provide kernels to form, meaning to the particulates that are going up in smoke gather that water? But doesn't there have to be enough water in the air to make that happen.
So the atmosphere has water, and it's super cool water is what we call it.
But in order for the super cool particles and the finite water particles to condense and grow into rain drops or snowflakes. You need what's called condensation nuclei. You need some type of a particulate, whether it's a grain of salt from sea air, or whether it's a smoke particle or any other dust particle, you need something for it to attach to and grow.
So if you look up go to Google and.
Look up condensation nuclei and it will give you a great explanation of how those particles flow around with storm system and help to create rain drops and kind of give us a better chance of moisture across the area.
Excellent, all right, Dave Fraser, we'll talk to you next week. Well, we'll have a much more accurate forecast for our listener who's driving to a wedding, you know, because that's what we're here for to provide a service. Or you could just watch the Great Weather Team on Fox thirty one, our partner at KATVR, because they have a very very accurate team at there, and so you can find out there. Dave, we'll talk to you next week.
Yep, yep.
We're on all weekend, and don't forget, we've got the Super.
Bowl, so join us in the Super Bowl.
I will be working Sunday night and I will have an updated all the way through next weekend. We'll gust including Valentine show.
I was going to ask you who got the Super Bowl gig because people may not know that that's like prime territory for meteorologists to be able to do that little snippet in there during the Super Bowl. I'll be watching for you, Dave.
All right, have a great weekend.
All right, you two. Thank you, Dave Frasier. We'll be right back