Ep. 85 - Metaculus: Aggregating emotions, expertise, and data into Prediction Engine
Sep 24, 2019•48 min
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Episode description
Part 2 of Max's discussion with Anthony Aguirre, cofounder of the Metaculus prediction engine. Topics include:
- The difference between making short term, long term, and theoretical predictions
- The human mind and human emotions - as imperfect as they are - being world's best tool for prediction making
- Calibrating your probabilities, on an individual and group level
- Predictions of humor-detecting AI, waking up after being cryogenically frozen, and political developments
localmaxradio.com/85
metaculus.com
Get full access to The Local Maximum at localmaximum.substack.com/subscribe
- The difference between making short term, long term, and theoretical predictions
- The human mind and human emotions - as imperfect as they are - being world's best tool for prediction making
- Calibrating your probabilities, on an individual and group level
- Predictions of humor-detecting AI, waking up after being cryogenically frozen, and political developments
localmaxradio.com/85
metaculus.com
Get full access to The Local Maximum at localmaximum.substack.com/subscribe
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